Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Soda Ash: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [3] - Silicomanganese: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral (expected to trade in a range) [5] 2. Core Views - **Glass & Soda Ash**: The trading sentiment is high, and prices are expected to be volatile. Glass consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, while soda ash faces supply - demand contradictions, especially with the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project [1][2]. - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and alloys are expected to trade in a wide range. The supply - demand situation for both is relatively loose, and prices are likely to follow the sector's fluctuations [4]. 3. Market Analysis Glass - **Futures**: The glass futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 3.08%, and near - month contracts rising more than far - month contracts [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday restocking. With the price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.355 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Glass supply is generally stable. Consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with limited overall inventory changes. The large premium on the futures market stimulates spot - futures purchases. The fundamentals still suppress prices, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and peak - season demand [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures**: The soda ash futures on the previous day oscillated upward, with the main 2601 contract rising 1.15%, and all contracts rising to varying degrees [1]. - **Spot**: Spot trading was mainly for pre - holiday rigid - demand restocking. This week, domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.19%; inventory was 1.6515 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61% [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Supply - demand contradictions in soda ash still exist. With the ignition of Yuanxing's Phase II project, future supply pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens, which may intensify the supply - demand contradiction. The current premium on the futures market suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Silicomanganese - **Futures**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures closed at 5,938 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The silicomanganese spot market performed averagely. The price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, silicomanganese production decreased month - on - month, while hot metal production increased slightly. Downstream demand for silicomanganese still has resilience, and the inventory of silicomanganese alloy enterprises has increased. In the long term, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Futures**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5,786 yuan/ton on the previous day, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: The ferrosilicon spot market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: This week, ferrosilicon production remained flat, demand declined, and factory inventory decreased month - on - month. The supply - demand in the ferrosilicon industry is still relatively loose. Without industrial policies, profits are still suppressed. Prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [4]. 4. Strategies - **Glass**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Soda Ash**: Expect price oscillations [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Expect price oscillations [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [3] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures market rose slightly due to the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] - The peanut futures market closed slightly higher. The supply has no obvious increase, and the price is supported by potential yield decline in some areas and the need for new peanuts to be dried [5][6] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3929.00 yuan/ton, up 22.00 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 291, down 22 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually on the market, with the purchase price of rough grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact, the protein content has declined, and high - protein sources have firm prices. The purchase work of enterprises is hindered by rain, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand [2] Price Movement Reasons - The slight increase in soybean futures was driven by the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7778.00 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day, and the spot basis was PK11 + 522.00, up 84.00 (+19.18%) from the previous day [4] Market Information - The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.22 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills in Shandong and Henan have different purchase prices and are cautious in purchasing [4] Price Movement Reasons - The narrow - range increase in peanut futures was due to the lack of obvious increase in supply. The potential yield decline in some areas in Henan supported the price. New peanuts need time to dry, and traders purchase as needed [5][6] Strategies - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [7]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 市场购销转好，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2967元/吨，较前日变动+37元/吨，幅度+1.26%；菜粕2601合约2444元/吨，较前 日变动+49元/吨，幅度+2.05%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+3， 较前日变动-27；江苏地区豆粕现货2890元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-77，较前日变动-27；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2900元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-67，较前日变动-27。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM01+156，较前日变动-19。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，预计2025年9月巴西大豆出口量715万吨，低于一周前预估的753万 吨，但高于去年同期的516万吨；2025年1-9月巴西大豆出口量将达到9525万吨，去年同期为8905万吨。预计10-12 月巴西大豆出口量约1600万吨。 市场分析 整体来看，当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果，但传递了一定的积极信号， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 现货方面：2025-09-25，LME铅现货升水为-40.08美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16950元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-10.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化0元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-25，沪铅主力合约开于17085元/吨，收于17090元/吨，较前一交易日变化25元/吨，全天交易日 成交46256手，较前一交易日变化2927手，全天交易日持仓62847手，手较前一交易日变化1776手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17145元/吨，最低点达到17080元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17100元/吨，收于17125元/吨 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-09-26 港口库存回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤475元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润660元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2085元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差329元/吨（-5），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2360元/吨（+0），鲁南 基差204元/吨（-5）；河南2205元/吨（-5），河南基差49元/吨（-10）；河北2245元/吨（+0），河北基差149元/吨（-5）。 隆众内地工厂库存319940吨（-20540），西北工厂库存208000吨（-17500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单273022吨（+39246）， 西北工厂待发订单154000吨（+38300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2252元/吨（-3），太仓基差-104元/吨（-8），CFR中国262美元/吨（+3），华东进口价差-31元/ 吨（-11），常州甲醇2455元/吨；广东甲醇2255元/吨（+0），广东基差-101元/吨（-5）。隆众港口总库存1492190吨 （-65580），江苏港口库存779000吨（-8000），浙江港口库存253700 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, domestic existing plants are operating at a relatively high rate, import arrivals are slowing down, downstream pre - holiday procurement is good, port inventory is decreasing faster, and the basis is strengthening. The downstream开工 rate is rising from the bottom, but overall开工 remains low, and the long - term procurement sustainability of downstream is questionable [3]. - For styrene, the开工 of PS and EPS has declined,提货 has decreased, arrivals are concentrated, port inventory has accumulated again, the basis has weakened further, and the开工 is waiting to rise. Overseas, the开工 of EB in Europe and America is still low, but the price difference between Europe and America and China is narrowing, and the paper - cargo locked import window for EB has opened [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), and the styrene main contract basis is - 18 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton). The pure benzene spot - M2 spread is 35 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Price Differences - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 120 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 103 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea price difference is 38.5 dollars/ton (- 4.0 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 542 yuan/ton (- 4 yuan/ton) and is expected to be gradually compressed [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 10.70 million tons (- 2.70 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream pure benzene is rising from the bottom. Styrene East China port inventory is 186,500 tons (+27,500 tons), East China commercial inventory is 98,500 tons (+20,500 tons), and the operating rate is 73.2% (- 0.2%) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 179 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 91 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 32 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 55.25% (- 6.49%), PS operating rate is 59.10% (- 2.10%), ABS operating rate is 70.00% (+0.20%) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 2005 yuan/ton (- 10), phenolic ketone production profit is - 320 yuan/ton (- 124), aniline production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+124), adipic acid production profit is - 1369 yuan/ton (- 14). Caprolactam operating rate is 93.66% (+4.97%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (+7.00%), aniline operating rate is 74.92% (+2.97%), adipic acid operating rate is 61.40% (- 1.20%) [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for BZ, short - hedge EB on rallies. - Basis and inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 供应压力持续释放，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约12685元/吨，较前交易日变动-45.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.63元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.16元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-55，较前交易日变动-115；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 12.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH11+195，较前交易日变动+35；四川地 区外三元生猪价格12.29元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH11-395，较前交易日变动+45。 据农业农村部监测，9月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.78，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为119.70， 与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.44元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；牛肉66.31元/公斤，比昨天上 升0.2%；羊肉61.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋8.48元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.61元/公斤，比昨天 下降1.9%。 市场分析 综合来看，上周现货价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton inventory is at a near - four - year low, and the supply - demand outlook for the new US cotton season is expected to improve. US cotton has support but short - term upside is limited. In China, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation and hedging pressure during the new flower listing stage need attention [2] - Sugar: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the domestic sugar market has sufficient supply in the short term with downward - driven fundamentals [4][5] - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills' production cut and price increase plans have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the overall supply pressure remains. Domestic supply is loose, and weak demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,030 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. - US cotton: In the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 1.95 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease; weekly shipments were 3.11 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending inventories. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales. - Domestic: The domestic cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The supply is tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation and hedging pressure during the new flower listing stage are concerns [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Cotton prices still have some support before the large - scale listing of new cotton, but there may be a decline during the new cotton listing period. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5485 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. - Forecast: The 2025/26 global sugar market is expected to have a 2.77 - million - ton supply surplus, with an expected production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the northern hemisphere has a production increase expectation. - Domestic: The domestic sugar market has sufficient supply in the short term due to high imports and the start of beet sugar production, and the fundamental driving force is downward [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The Zheng sugar price may have limited downside due to cost support and may rebound in the short term, but a bearish view is taken in the medium term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5060 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. - Market: The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable, with some fluctuations. The price of imported softwood pulp in some regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the price of imported natural pulp in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills' production cut and price increase plans boosted market sentiment, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the overall supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port de - stocking was slower than expected. - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, America, and China is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price may continue to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient fundamental improvement and the pressure of the near - month contract [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 早熟富士收尾，新季红枣待市 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8446元/吨，较前一日变动+110元/吨，幅度+1.32%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-846，较前一日变动-110；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1154，较前一日变动-110。 近期市场资讯，西部晚富士脱袋工作陆续展开，早熟富士基本结束，其他中熟品种正常交易，多按货给价。山东 产区部分红将军陆续进入后期，小单车客商青睐价格较低的红将军货源，库存老富士受到其它苹果品种冲击，交 易不快。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元/斤。中秋王70#以上主流 4.2-4.3元/斤，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤。山东栖霞产区果农80#以上统货2.1-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5 元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 苹果期价昨日小幅收涨，持仓量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - side support for rubber remains. The news of state reserve sales has narrowed the price difference between RU and NR, suppressing futures prices in the short term. Before the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas may support rubber costs and limit the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories is over, and with a slight increase in domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires is in a seasonal peak, with an increase in tire factory operating rates and continuous raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited. For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply, and although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, a change of + 25 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] - Production and Sales of Automobiles: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] - Sales of Heavy - Duty Trucks: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [3] - Rubber Exports in Cote d'Ivoire: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3230 yuan/ton (+ 55.38), the NR basis was 869.00 yuan/ton (+ 43.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 30), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the price difference between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the price difference between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2750 yuan/ton (- 30) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the price difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.75) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 20), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1580 yuan/ton (- 41) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6] 3. Strategy - For RU and NR, due to the narrowing of the price difference caused by the news of state reserve sales and the short - term suppression of futures prices, the cost - side support may limit the decline of rubber prices. After the end of the concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories and with a slight increase in arrivals, the inventory reduction will slow down. Although the demand is in a peak season, after the purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the decline is limited [7] - For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply. Although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [7]