Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-21 下游开工逐步见顶回落 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6835元/吨（+2），PP主力合约收盘价为6400元/吨（-34），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-35元/吨（-22），LL 华东基差为115元/吨（-52）， PP华东基差为50元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为382.4元/吨（+204.2），PP油制生产利润为-407.6元/吨（+204.2），PDH制PP生产 利润为-376.1元/吨（-21.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为84.4元/吨（+55.9），PP进口利润为-208.9元/吨（-31.3），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...

期权成交量 2025-11-19，上证50ETF期权成交量为101.36万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为127.95万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为166.97万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为5.35万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为189.01万张；上证50股指期权成交量为4.83万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为15.93万张；中证1000期权总成交量为36.16万张。 股指期权日报 | 2025-11-20 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权VIX 上证50ETF期权VIX报17.60%，环比变动为-0.68%； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）VIX报18.80%,环比变动为-0.87%； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）VIX报23.23%，环比变动为-0.44%； 深证100ETF期权VIX报23.40%，环比变动为-0.55%； 创业板ETF期权VIX报32.26%，环比变动为-0.32%； 上证50股指期权VIX报17.51%，环比变动为-0.66%； 沪深300股指期权VIX报19.77%，环比变动为-0.85%； 中证1000股指期权VIX报23.15%，环比变动为-0.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Report's Core View - The domestic supply of soybean meal is relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. Although the soybean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced压榨, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new corn is concentrated on the market. Northeast corn has good yield and quality, and prices are rising due to traders' price - raising acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight due to farmers' wheat - planting and concerns about corn quality, leading to price increases. Feed enterprises have weak inventory - building意愿, while deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and raise prices to purchase. The overall supply is slightly loose, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3022 yuan/ton yesterday, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2419 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.49%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 96%. Abiove expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be a record 1.777 billion tons, with unchanged forecasts for crushing and export volumes [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is still loose, with high oil - mill inventories. The soybean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced压榨 but remains high. Downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The price was supported by US soybean prices and import costs last week [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2175 yuan/ton yesterday, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Market Information: As of November 16, 2025, the US corn harvest rate was 91%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 94%. In October, corn imports reached 360,000 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase, but the cumulative imports from January to October were only 1.29 million tons, a 90% year - on - year decrease [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market in Northeast and North China. Northeast corn has good yield and quality, and prices are rising due to traders' acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising because of farmers' wheat - planting and concerns about corn quality [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises have weak inventory - building意愿 and mainly replenish inventory as needed. Deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and raise prices to purchase [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In December, the contract trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term agreement negotiations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of price - holding in December. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately until delivery. The bottom support of the 12 - month contract is rising [4]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption - of - navigation expectation. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January 2026. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain. Continuous tracking is needed [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotes and increases from November to December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from week 48 to December; HPL - SPOT's price also rose significantly from the second half of November to December. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also had similar price - increase trends [1][2]. - Geopolitical situation: Israeli military air - raids in Gaza and Lebanon have caused casualties and tensions, which may impact the shipping market [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - In November, the remaining 3 - week average weekly capacity was 275,800 TEU, and in December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 313,000 TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December, with different distributions among alliances [3]. 3.3 12 - Month Contract - The trading rhythm of the 12 - month contract involves trading price - increase expectations and actual implementation alternately. The price center in the second half of November was around $2,100 - 2,200/FEU, and shipping companies have issued price - increase letters for December. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the price increase in the first half of December and whether there will be another price - increase announcement in the second half of December [4]. 3.4 2026 February Contract - The last trading day of the EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026, and the delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, it basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Whether the shipping companies' price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain, and follow - up attention should be paid to price - increase announcements in late November and mid - December [5][6]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Prices - As of November 19, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 71,070 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 23,971 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied. The SCFI prices of different routes were also provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe route price of $1,417/TEU on November 14 [6]. 3.6 Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China has led to a rapid increase in port inventories and a weakening of the basis. The domestic production start - up continues to rise, while the downstream start - up is weak. For styrene, port inventories continue to decline due to export boosts and low domestic start - up, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Recently, the increase in pure benzene inventory and the decrease in styrene inventory are conducive to the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts. Also, EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts are presented [7][10][15] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [18][21][36] 3. Inventories and Start - up Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Start - up and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][52] 5. Start - up and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include the start - up rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][64][82]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-20 供需矛盾难改善，延续低位整理 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6833元/吨（+48），PP主力合约收盘价为6434元/吨（+42），LL华北现货为6820 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-13元/吨（-68）， LL华东基差为167元/吨（+52）， PP华东基差为16元/吨（-72）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.1%（+0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+1.8%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为178.2元/吨（-3.2），PP油制生产利润为-481.8元/吨（-3.2），PDH制PP生产利润 为-354.4元/吨（-75.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为28.5元/吨（+49.2），PP进口利润为-177.6元/吨（-0.7），PP出口利润为-4.3美元/吨（+0.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.4%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; demand is picking up but supply pressure still exists, with limited upward driving force, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2] Core Viewpoints - The spot market for propylene has warmed up, but the futures market has continued to weaken. The basis has strengthened significantly due to the continued decline in coal prices and the expectation of weakening cost support on the futures market, while the expectation of loose supply and demand for propylene remains unchanged [2] - On the supply side, the overall supply pattern of propylene remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still relatively high. On the demand side, the demand support has increased, and the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded slightly. The cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It includes the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [27][28][32] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - It covers the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [34][35][37] 5. Propylene Inventory - It includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [60][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the market bottom to consolidate [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The asphalt market is in a low - level oscillation state. The cost side of crude oil is weak, and the fundamental situation lacks positive stimuli. Although there are some bottom signals, the rebound momentum is insufficient. The terminal demand for asphalt is generally dull, with an expected further decline after large - scale cooling. The market's willingness to buy at the bottom is limited, and the trading atmosphere is poor, lacking clear positive signals [1] Summary According to Related Content Market Analysis - On November 19, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3045 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decline from the previous day's settlement price. The positions were 181,181 lots, a decrease of 10,781 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 182,054 lots, an increase of 24,911 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3156 - 3650 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3030 - 3520 yuan/ton; South China, 3090 - 3210 yuan/ton; East China, 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton [1] - The asphalt spot price in Shandong rose slightly yesterday, while those in the Northeast, North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions declined. Prices in other regions were relatively stable [1] Graphical Information - There are various graphs showing data such as the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the trading volume and positions of asphalt futures, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

油料日报 | 2025-11-20 豆一贸易商满库收购放缓，花生供应方惜售需求疲软 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4145.00元/吨，较前日变化-4.00元/吨，幅度-0.10%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A01-45，较前日变化+4，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆行情整体平稳，局部地区价格有上涨40元/吨，39%以上蛋白大豆价格依然 表现坚挺。且从今天的拍卖结果来看，100%的成交率说明市场仍有需求在。在政策指导价的托底下，短期内豆价 仍有一定支撑力。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江 双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标 一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/ 斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤， ...