1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the container shipping market, especially the Far - East to Europe route. It indicates that the freight rate is oscillating at a high level. The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season. The 12 - month contract's price is usually higher than that of the 10 - month contract, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation. The strategy suggests that the main contract will oscillate, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price As of July 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 76,829.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 51,307.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1365.70, EC2604 is 1204.00, EC2506 is 1342.10, EC2508 is 2022.50, EC2510 is 1401.10, and EC2512 is 1556.40 [7]. 3.2 Spot Price On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2101.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2089.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 4124.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1557.77 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. 3.4 Supply Chain Geopolitical factors affect the shipping supply chain. The Israel - Hamas conflict situation is complex, and the Houthi armed forces' attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue. The passage of ships through important canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is also a focus [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy The report does not provide specific analysis content on demand and the European economy, only lists relevant data charts such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, and EU 27 imports from China [73]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract oscillates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [8].

现货供应压力仍存，豆粕价格震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2954元/吨，较前日变动+7元/吨，幅度+0.24%；菜粕2509合约2611元/吨，较前 日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.97%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2860元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-94， 较前日变动+3；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-164，较前日变动+3；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动-7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09-1，较前日变动-5。 近期市场资讯，特朗普近日在社交平台上表示，美国将自2025年8月1日起对文莱和摩尔多瓦的产品征收25%的关税， 对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚及斯里兰卡的产品征收30%关税，对菲律宾的产品征收20%关税、对巴西的产品征 收50%关税。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季美豆上市之前，国内大豆都 将维持宽松的供应格局。新季美豆方面，由 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 现货升水转为贴水 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为4.68 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨240元/吨至22400元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至55元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨240元/吨至22330元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至-15元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨240元/吨 至22340元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-10沪锌主力合约开于22120元/吨，收于22385元/吨，较前一交易日上涨305元/吨，全天交易日 成交146456手，较前一交易日减少8057手，全天交易日持仓112634手，较前一交易日减少2128手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22430元/吨，最低点达到22110元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-10，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.03万吨，较上周同期增加0.79万吨。截止2025-07-10，LME 锌库存为105600吨，较上一交易日减少1100吨。 市场分析 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-11 棉价偏强震荡，纸浆低位回升 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13865元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15175元/吨，较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF09+1310，较前一日变动-23；3128B棉全国均价15196元/吨， 较前一日变动+12元/吨，现货基差CF09+1331，较前一日变动-23。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA），截至7月3日一周，美国本年度陆地棉净签约1.7万吨，装运5.5万吨。其中 至中国净签约272吨，当周未装运。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续偏强震荡。国际方面，目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期， 25/26年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于美棉实播面积高于预期，主产区旱情较此前明显改善，预计新年 度美棉平衡表也难有明显改善，下半年美棉期价预计延续震荡格局，跟随宏观市场情绪波动为主。后续需关注美 国"对等关税"暂停期结束后的政策变化，如果美国能与多个国家达成贸易协定，改善美棉需求预期，预计能给盘 面带来一定提振作用。 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-07-11 港口累库幅度仍偏慢 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润678元/吨（+10）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1973元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差175元/吨（-16），内蒙南线1980元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2290元/吨（+10）， 鲁南基差92元/吨（-16）；河南2175元/吨（+10），河南基差-23元/吨（-16）；河北2175元/吨（-10），河北基差37元/ 吨（-36）。隆众内地工厂库存356900吨（+4620），西北工厂库存228000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单221240 吨（-12010），西北工厂待发订单100000吨（-10400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2390元/吨（+5），太仓基差-8元/吨（-21），CFR中国276美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-43元/吨 （-10），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2410元/吨（+10），广东基差12元/吨（-16）。隆众港口总库存718900吨（+45240）， 江苏港口库存395000吨（+62000），浙江港口库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent BZ2603 rally results from the combined forces of industry anti - arbitrage and the compression of styrene production profit. The BZ futures premium has further expanded, with limited potential for increasing the pure benzene processing fee. Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating, and its production profit faces further compression pressure. The decline in EPS and PS开工 further drags down EB demand [3] Summary by Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread [8][11][14][17] II. Production Profit and Internal - External Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread [19][22][27][30][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene operating rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [37][39][42] IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [48][50][52] V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spun bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [57][61][70][78][81][82] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main contract basis: - 268 yuan/ton (- 103) [1] - Port inventory: 17.40 tons (- 0.30 tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 140 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 126 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 113.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 95 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: - 1910 yuan/ton (- 105) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: - 564 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Aniline production profit: - 171 yuan/ton (- 305) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: - 1487 yuan/ton (- 72) [1] - Caprolactam operating rate: 95.72% (+ 0.00%) [1] - Phenol operating rate: 78.00% (- 0.50%) [1] - Aniline operating rate: 70.90% (+ 1.66%) [1] - Adipic acid operating rate: 65.70% (+ 1.40%) [1] Styrene - Main contract basis: 205 yuan/ton (- 80 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: 219 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 111,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 39,000 tons (+ 7,700 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1] - Operating rate: 79.2% (- 0.8%) [1] Styrene Downstream (Hard Rubber) - EPS production profit: - 48 yuan/ton (- 89 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 298 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: 318 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS operating rate: 51.06% (- 4.82%) [2] - PS operating rate: 51.10% (- 1.30%) [2] - ABS operating rate: 65.00% (- 0.04%), at a seasonal low [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper cargo - far - month BZ2603 futures, conduct anti - arbitrage at high prices [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 不锈钢盘面拉涨，现货小幅跟涨 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-10日沪镍主力合约2508开于119140元/吨，收于121140元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.41%，当日成交量为 102155手，持仓量为65815手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅上冲后横盘振荡，日盘继续横盘振荡振荡，午后快速拉升突破上方阻力后继续上涨， 收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日有所减少，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。国家发展改革委城市和小城镇改革发 展中心近日表示，锚定到2035年基本实现新型城镇化目标，紧抓城镇化动力仍然较强的关键时期，高质量推进新 型城镇化四大行动，为中国式现代化提供有力支撑。菲律宾方面，苏里高矿区降雨仍存，加之季节性台风影响， 装船出货效率迟缓。印尼方面，镍矿供应紧缺问题因印尼当地园区各冶炼厂出现减产得以缓解。7月（一期）内贸 升水维持+24-25。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约450元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上 调，盘面镍价快速回升，重回12万，需求未见明显增长，部分贸易商下调现货升贴水以促成交，下游企业按需采 购为主，现货成交一般。其中金川镍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of restricted supply, the high industry profit of electrolytic aluminium is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminium prices. In the short - term, the further rise of aluminium prices requires the resonance of macro - economic improvement and stronger micro - consumption. Attention should be paid to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected. For alumina, the cost is stable, but the expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. For aluminium alloy, the cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [3][4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminium - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminium price was 20,820 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminium price was 20,710 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminium price was 20,800 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 20,520 yuan/ton, closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 138,934 lots, an increase of 36,365 lots, and the position was 255,633 lots, an increase of 5,534 lots [1] - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 466,000 tons, and the LME aluminium inventory was 395,725 tons, an increase of 4,925 tons from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - Spot: On July 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,130 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,120 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton [2] - Futures: On July 10, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,133 yuan/ton, closed at 3,208 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 2.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 513,954 lots, an increase of 162,240 lots, and the position was 244,546 lots, a decrease of 4,110 lots [2] 3.1.3 Aluminium Alloy - Price: On July 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminium was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminium - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,150 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short - term, wait for the callback caused by inventory accumulation, macro - factors and tariff impacts to find long - term opportunities to layout long positions. In the long - term, pay attention to the price increase driven by consumption stronger than expected [3] 3.2.2 Alumina - The cost is stable, and the smelting profit still exists. The expected supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance has a surplus of about 200,000 tons, but the spot market does not show an obvious surplus. The delivery risk still exists [4][5] 3.2.3 Aluminium Alloy - It is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminium price. The supply of scrap and primary aluminium is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.3 Strategies 3.3.1 Single - sided - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 3.3.2 Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminium positive arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The continuous fermentation of the "anti-involution" policy has improved the sentiment in the commodity market, leading to significant upward movements in the prices of steel, iron ore, and coking coal and coke futures [1][3][6] - The steel market is in the off-season, but the inventory accumulation of finished products is not obvious, and the consumption resilience of finished products in domestic and foreign markets is relatively strong [1] - The iron ore market has seen a rebound in prices due to the end of the shipping peak and the destocking of port inventories, while the iron ore demand has decreased but remains at a relatively high level [3] - The coking coal supply has tightened, and the industry's total inventory has reached a relatively low level. The demand for coke has some support, and the short - term supply - demand situation has slightly improved [6] - The power coal market has short - term price fluctuations due to weather - affected supply and expected increase in demand with rising temperatures. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of steel rebounded significantly, with the rebar futures main contract closing at 3123 yuan/ton, up 1.96%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract at 3262 yuan/ton, up 2.26%. The spot trading volume was 115,000 tons. The total steel output decreased, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season was not obvious [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not available [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose significantly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 763.5 yuan/ton, up 3.67%. The daily average pig iron output was 239,810 tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons from the previous period. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 913,000 tons, a decrease of 3.08% from the previous day, and the forward spot transaction volume decreased by 49.36% [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not available [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal futures prices rose significantly. The coal prices in the main production areas increased slightly, and the port market sentiment was good. The port coke spot market remained stable [5] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to have a volatile market, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not available [6] Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, some coal mines were affected by rainfall. The procurement prices of large station operators increased, and the coal prices of most cost - effective mines rose slightly, while a few mines' prices were under pressure. At the ports, the upstream shipping costs increased, and the prices remained stable. The import of high - calorie Australian coal was not liquid, while the low - calorie Indonesian coal was more cost - effective [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core View of the Report - After the OPEC meeting's production increase was confirmed, the crude oil price remained firm. The FU and LU prices are supported by the cost side, with limited downward space in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is operating weakly, with spot premiums, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining. The demand for fuel oil in Saudi Arabia may decline year-on-year during the summer peak season, while Egypt's import demand remains strong, providing some support to the market [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil market currently faces limited pressure but lacks obvious drivers. The market share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced in the medium term due to the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry, and its market outlook remains weak [2]. - The current market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and the high-low sulfur spread does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **High-sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.34% at 2,972 yuan/ton. The market structure is operating weakly, and the spot supply is relatively abundant. Saudi Arabia may increase the use of crude oil during the summer peak season, leading to a year-on-year decline in fuel oil demand. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in July are expected to reach 570,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons compared to last year, and there is room for upward revision. Egypt's imports mainly come from the Middle East and Russia, which helps digest the supply increase in the Middle East [1]. - **Low-sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.27% at 3,687 yuan/ton. The current market pressure is limited, but there is no obvious driver. The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil may gradually recover from a low level since June, and Brazil's supply to the Asia-Pacific region has also increased recently. In the medium term, the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced [2]. Strategy - **High-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Low-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - **Spot-futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3]