国债期货日报 | 2026-01-13 权益走强，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号; 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号；中央经济 工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵 活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比 上升0.7%。 财政：（3）11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力不大， 财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更加向民 生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发行提速 带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济 形成一定支撑，但更强拉动 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-13 铝锭库存超季节性累库 铝合金价格方面：2026-01-12保太民用生铝采购价格18000元/吨，机械生铝采购价格18300元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化100元/吨。ADC12保太报价23400元/吨，价格环比昨日变化100元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存6.82万吨，厂内库存6.45万吨。 铝合金成本利润：理论总成本22988元/吨，理论利润312元/吨。 市场分析 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24340元/吨，较上一交易日变化310元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-100元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价24180元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-260元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录24390元/吨，较上一交易日变化290元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-45元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-12日沪铝主力合约开于24560元/吨，收于24650元/吨，较上一交易日变化610元/吨，最 高价达24915元/吨，最低价达到24370元/吨。全天交易日成交655011手，全天交易日持仓379081手。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core Views - The market of high - sulfur fuel oil in the US Gulf has weakened, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has rebounded. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.32% at 2,461 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.93% at 3,026 yuan/ton [1] - With the escalating situation in Iran, the short - term oil price trend is volatile and bullish, but it is greatly affected by news, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. The fundamentals of fuel oil have both long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions [2] - The large inflow of heavy oil from Venezuela to the US has increased the production of high - sulfur fuel oil in US Gulf refineries, leading to a significant decline in crack spreads, a wider price spread between the East and West regions of fuel oil, and potential growth in cargo inflows. The Singapore and domestic markets may face potential resistance. After the decline in crack spreads, refinery demand is expected to be boosted, providing support to the market. If the conflict in the Iranian region escalates, high - sulfur fuel oil supply may face a downward risk [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradictions are currently limited. With the changes in the refinery operations in Nigeria and Kuwait, local supply may increase, and market pressure may rise. In the long run, the contradictions of large surplus capacity and the replacement of the ship - fuel demand share will continue to be a resistance factor, but the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low - sulfur oil components, providing some support to the market [2] Group 3: Figures and Data - Figures related to Singapore fuel oil: Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread [4] - Figures related to fuel oil FU futures: Main contract closing price, index closing price, near - month contract closing price, near - month contract spread, main contract trading volume and open interest, total trading volume and open interest [4] - Figures related to low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures: Main contract closing price, index closing price, near - month contract price, near - month spread, main contract trading volume and open interest, total trading volume and open interest [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market shows a pattern where futures are strong but the spot market is weak. It is in a situation of tight supply and weak demand. The price is supported by factors such as hoarding sentiment, state reserve signals and pre - festival stocking expectations, making it prone to rise but difficult to fall. However, the contradiction between strong futures and weak spot restricts the upside space. If pre - festival stocking falls short of expectations, the price may turn to a volatile trend. For peanuts, the domestic market is generally in a pattern of oversupply, and the short - term price is expected to be weakly stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract yesterday was 4356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.50%. - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 + 84, a change of + 22 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The prices in different regions of Heilongjiang range from 2.20 - 2.38 yuan/jin for different protein - content soybeans [1] Market Outlook - The southern soybean spot price remains stable with light trading. High prices in the producing areas and weak downstream demand mean the short - term market lacks upward momentum. Key factors to track are downstream stocking rhythm, state - reserve auction trends, and the pressure of imported soybeans arriving at ports [2] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7868.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 90.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 1.13%. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8005.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.14%. The spot basis was PK03 - 868.00, a change of + 90.00 from the previous day, a decrease of - 9.39%. The national average price of general peanuts is 4.01 yuan/jin, and the average contract purchase price of oil - mill peanut kernels is 7336 yuan/ton [3] Market Outlook - The domestic peanut market is in an oversupply situation. Some holders in the Northeast have high inventories and are actively promoting sales by reducing prices. Food processing enterprises purchase on - demand, and oil mills keep the purchase price of peanut kernels stable. Short - term peanut prices are expected to be weakly stable, and attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm and demand release of downstream users [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the release of the USDA report, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Currently, domestic oil stocks are continuously decreasing, and the basis of soybean oil remains strong, providing some support for prices. Overall, the futures prices showed little fluctuation [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,724 yuan/ton, a change of +42 yuan or +0.48% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,980 yuan/ton, a change of -62 yuan or -0.69% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan or -0.58%, and the spot basis was P05 - 124 yuan, a change of -92 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.36%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 366 yuan, a change of -30 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,730 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 750 yuan, a change of +2 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 10: According to SGS, the export volume was 325,955 tons, a 16.4% increase compared to the same period last month; according to AmSpec, the export volume was 466,457 tons, a 17.65% increase [2] - Global oilseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 690 million tons, an increase of about 0.84%. Soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.61 million tons, with a slowdown in the increase in South American production; rapeseed production is expected to reach 95.27 million tons, an increase of 10.78% [2] - As of January 6, 2026, 4.57 million tons of imported soybeans for January shipments in China have been purchased, with a purchase progress of 100%; 8.33 million tons and 10.08 million tons have been purchased for February and March shipments respectively [2] - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate remained the same, and the production decreased by 20.49% [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The downstream industry is showing signs of recovery, and attention should be paid to foreign trade policy adjustments [1] - The upstream energy prices have slightly corrected, agricultural egg prices have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metal prices of aluminum and nickel have continued to rise [3] - In the midstream, PX prices are at a high level while polyester operating rates are low, and power plant coal consumption has decreased [4] - Downstream, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded beyond seasonality, and the number of domestic flights has continued to increase [5] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Middle - view Event Overview Production Industry - On January 12, regarding China's export of rare earths to Japan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that relevant measures are taken in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - Also on January 12, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products believes that the "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles is conducive to the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain [1] Service Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation will conduct an investigation and evaluation on the market competition of the food delivery platform service industry due to issues such as subsidy and price competition [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices have slightly corrected [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices have rebounded significantly [3] - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum and nickel prices have continued to rise [3] Midstream - Chemical industry: PX prices are high, and polyester operating rates are low [4] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption has decreased [4] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded beyond seasonality [5] - Service: The number of domestic flights has continued to increase [5] 3. Key Industry Price Indicators - On January 12, prices of various products showed different trends, such as a 7.20% year - on - year increase in egg prices, a 4.49% increase in aluminum prices, and a 3.14% increase in WTI crude oil prices [38]

生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11735元/吨，较前交易日变动-35.00元/吨，幅度-0.30%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.83元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1095，较前交易日变动-65；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.20元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1465，较前交易日变动+45；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1245，较前交易日变动+35。 农产品日报 | 2026-01-13 重回基本面叙事，养殖出栏暂维稳 据农业农村部监测，1月12日"农产品批发价格200指数"为128.40，比上周五下降0.31个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为130.93，比上周五下降0.35个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.83元/公斤，比上周五下降0.8%； 牛肉66.12元/公斤，比上周五上升0.1%；羊肉63.50元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.61元/公斤，比上周五上升 0.8%；白条鸡17.67元/公斤，比上周五上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines in the short term, pay attention to the situation in Iran; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the market has been oscillating and strengthening, with overall rising spot prices but differentiation among varieties. The LPG market continues the pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally recently and the external market price has been relatively firm, the domestic market's reaction has been limited. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has exerted additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disruptions to the market. The core is that the global balance sheet still has an expectation of oversupply, and the endogenous driving force of the market is limited. The potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between the US and Iran further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, so continuous attention should be paid to the situation [1] Market Analysis - On January 12th, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4370 - 4460; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150; North China market, 4170 - 4380; East China market, 4300 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4650 - 5000; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350; South China market, 4850 - 4930 [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 593 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4615 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China, was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4554 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and butane was 4515 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton [1] Charts - The report contains charts including Shandong civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - East China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - South China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - North China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - Northeast civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Yangtze River civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Shandong ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - East China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - North China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Northeast ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Yangtze River ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - Northwest ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - PG futures main contract closing price [3][25] - PG futures index closing price [3][25] - PG futures near - month contract closing price [3][28] - PG futures near - month spread [3][28] - PG futures main contract trading volume and open interest [3][29] - PG futures total trading volume and open interest [3][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price remains in a volatile pattern due to strong wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. Although there may be a slight increase in downstream开工 after the New Year's Day, if orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may reduce production or arrange holidays. Meanwhile, the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, and processing fees are at a low level. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [1][2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On January 12, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.05/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,345 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,367 lots, a decrease of 20,317 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 40,313 lots, a decrease of 2,615 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,515 yuan/ton and a low of 17,315 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,540 yuan/ton and closed at 17,445 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract or a discount of 1,800 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract for ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, with some lead plants maintaining a premium of 30 yuan/ton, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract for ex - factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 300 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory. In January, the consumption of the lead - acid battery market was weak, downstream enterprises produced according to sales, raw material procurement enthusiasm was poor, wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and holders preferred to deliver to the warehouse, resulting in weak overall spot market transactions [2] Inventory - On January 12, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of January 12, the LME lead inventory was 221,450 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Given the current situation, operations can be carried out by buying and selling hedges within the price range of 16,980 - 17,800 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The cost side provides support, and the market sentiment boosts the continuation of a relatively strong performance in the polyolefin market. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation of PE and PP has only slightly improved without a substantial reversal. The short - term rebound in PP prices depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, while PE's rebound may weaken after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - level guidance, inventory de - stocking progress, and upstream maintenance dynamics [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6737 yuan/ton (+63), and the PP main contract is 6560 yuan/ton (+46). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE's operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP's is 75.5% (-1.3%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 87.6 yuan/ton (-90.7), PP's oil - based production profit is - 502.4 yuan/ton (-90.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 775.5 yuan/ton (-71.6) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 101.5 yuan/ton (+13.5), PP's import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (-28.4), and PP's export profit is - 35.4 US dollars/ton (-1.7) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving is 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film is 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - **PE**: Cost support drives the bottom - up movement of the market, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited improvement. Supply pressure may ease slightly, but import volume is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. After the sentiment fades, the rebound momentum may weaken [3]. - **PP**: The short - term market sentiment, supply - reduction expectations, and cost support drive the price rebound. The supply pressure eases in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the sustainability of the rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance [4]. III. Strategy - **Single - side**: Observe LLDPE and cautiously go long on PP for hedging. Pay attention to upstream maintenance dynamics [5]. - **Cross - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Cross - variety**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when the spread is high [5].