Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) data for various stock index options on July 11, 2025. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Option Trading Volume - On July 11, 2025, the trading volumes of various stock index options were as follows: 2.8049 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options; 2.4201 million contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market); 2.1626 million contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market); 0.1171 million contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options; 1.9109 million contracts for ChiNext ETF options; 0.0947 million contracts for SSE 50 stock index options; 0.1967 million contracts for CSI 300 stock index options; and 0.3324 million contracts for CSI 1000 options [1][21]. II. Option PCR - The PCR data of various stock index options on July 11, 2025, are as follows: - SSE 50 ETF options: turnover PCR was 0.45 (a decrease of 0.09 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.22 (an increase of 0.04 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market): turnover PCR was 0.37 (a decrease of 0.09 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.02 (an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market): turnover PCR was 0.47 (a decrease of 0.14 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.24 (an increase of 0.02 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: turnover PCR was 0.42 (a decrease of 0.05 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 0.90 (a decrease of 0.12 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - ChiNext ETF options: turnover PCR was 0.44 (a decrease of 0.17 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.07 (an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - SSE 50 stock index options: turnover PCR was 0.26 (a decrease of 0.13 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 0.63 (an increase of 0.03 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 300 stock index options: turnover PCR was 0.30 (a decrease of 0.05 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 0.75 (an increase of 0.02 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. - CSI 1000 stock index options: turnover PCR was 0.42 (a decrease of 0.20 compared to the previous period), and position PCR was 1.05 (an increase of 0.02 compared to the previous period) [2][29]. III. Option VIX - The VIX data of various stock index options on July 11, 2025, are as follows: - SSE 50 ETF options: VIX was 16.15% (an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market): VIX was 16.52% (an increase of 0.77% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market): VIX was 20.65% (an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: VIX was 19.11% (an increase of 0.52% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - ChiNext ETF options: VIX was 24.19% (a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - SSE 50 stock index options: VIX was 17.79% (an increase of 0.85% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 300 stock index options: VIX was 17.82% (an increase of 0.88% compared to the previous period) [3][45]. - CSI 1000 stock index options: VIX was 21.57% (a decrease of 0.21% compared to the previous period) [3][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils fluctuated and declined. Palm oil had the largest decline among the three major oils due to factors such as OPEC+ members agreeing to increase production, the negative impact of US tariff policies on the global economic outlook, and a bearish MPOB report. Soybean oil had a relatively small decline in the oils due to the impact of US tariff policies on increasing the cost of domestic soybean imports. In the future, as a large number of soybeans arrive at ports and the oil mill operating rate increases, the shortage of domestic soybean oil will soon be alleviated. Against the background of low - level fluctuations in crude oil, the demand outlook for palm oil as biodiesel is limited. Coupled with the current entry into the production - increasing cycle, there is a need for the price difference between palm oil and soybean oil to return, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][10]. - For the feed sector, the USDA supply - demand report this month did not make major adjustments to South America. Brazil's bumper harvest pattern is set, and the large - scale arrival of soybeans starting from April will still bring certain supply pressure to the domestic market. However, the report significantly increased the domestic soybean crushing demand in the US, which also reflects that under the current tariff policy, the import volume of US oils may decline, which is beneficial to domestic soybean oil consumption in the US. The CBOT US soybean price also rebounded after a decline. Domestically, it is currently the window period for the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian premium has remained firm under the influence of tariff policies, which supports the import cost to a certain extent, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is still large, and the domestic downstream supply is not tight in the short term. Future policy changes and domestic soybean arrival situations need to be focused on [12]. - In the pig market, the supply side is expected to remain stable in the future, with no significant changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The consumption side shows weak growth in slaughter data and synchronous growth in frozen product inventory, with large resistance in white - striped pork sales and weak consumption. It is expected that the consumption side may decline slightly in the future. Overall, there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the pig market, and the price is expected to fluctuate steadily. As the delivery month approaches, the basis of near - month contracts may converge. At the current price, the probability of large - scale entry of secondary fattening is not high, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate [14]. - For the cotton market, the short - term risks of the cotton futures market have been cleared, but the macro uncertainty is still high, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Domestically, the short - term supply is still abundant, and the expected cotton - planting area in the new year is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance is still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. Internationally, the April USDA report slightly increased the global cotton ending inventory, with a neutral - to - bearish overall adjustment. As the Northern Hemisphere enters the sowing season and the expectation of reduced planting in the new year of US cotton increases, attention has gradually shifted to the new - season supply, and the drought situation in the main US cotton - producing areas needs to be continuously monitored [16]. - Regarding the sugar market, short - term international sugar prices are still strongly supported, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, the sugar price may still be under pressure. The short - term focus is on the weather and the start of the crushing season in Brazil, as well as the weather in Guangxi and the import rhythm in China [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Evaluation and Strategy - **Supply**: The weekly national oil mill imported soybean crushing volume was 1.0301 million tons, with a decrease in soybean crushing, and the imported rapeseed crushing was 70,000 tons, with a decrease in rapeseed crushing. The oil mill's expected operating rate this week was slightly reduced, and the crushing volume decreased. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of the oil mill was 1.0301 million tons, and the operating rate was 28.96%. The sample showed that the inventory of breeding sows in March was 5.0484 million heads, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.08%; the elimination volume of breeding sows in March was 97,826 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 35.4457 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27%; the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in March was 10.3928 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 17.43%. According to the Cotton Information Network, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of March was 4.8396 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.24%, 19,800 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 0.41%. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had all stopped production. The total national sugar production in this sugar - making season was 10.7479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons, an increase of 12.27% [9][12][15]. - **Demand**: The weekly national spot trading volume of palm oil was 5,299 tons, soybean oil was 145,000 tons, and rapeseed oil pick - up was 8,300 tons. Palm oil and soybean oil increased, while rapeseed oil decreased. The national soybean meal trading volume this week was 1.3546 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 709,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 270,900 tons, an average daily month - on - month increase of 141,800 tons. This week, the slaughter data of pigs showed weak growth, and the frozen product inventory also increased synchronously. The downstream performance of the cotton market was still weaker than the peak - season level, and the demand is expected to weaken after April. As of the end of March, the national cumulative sugar sales volume was 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.64%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.33 percentage points [9][12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port palm oil inventory increased to 373,400 tons, the oil mill soybean oil inventory decreased to 791,200 tons, and the coastal oil mill rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 127,000 tons. This week, the oil mill's inventory was 791,200 tons, a decrease of 47,900 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 31,300 tons, an increase from last week. This week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.38%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week. This week, the raw material inventory of yarn mills increased slightly, and the finished - product cotton yarn inventory increased slightly; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills decreased slightly, and the all - cotton grey fabric inventory continued to increase. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the national monthly industrial sugar inventory was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [9][12][15]. - **Basis**: The spot basis includes North China first - grade soybean oil Y05 + 324, East China fourth - grade rapeseed oil OI05 + 95, and South China 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 266. The spot basis of soybean meal in South China is M05 - 114, and that of rapeseed meal in Fujian is RM05 + 1. The spot basis of live pigs in Henan is LH05 + 455. As of this Friday, the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 424 yuan/ton. The spot basis is CF05 + 1405, a month - on - month increase of 276. The national weighted average spot price of cotton is 14,275 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 627 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is CF05 + 1465, a month - on - month increase of 73. As of this Friday, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 6,170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is SR05 + 84, a month - on - month increase of 13 [9][12][15]. - **Profit**: This week, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil for April shipments was - 699 yuan/ton. This week, the on - paper gross profit of Brazilian soybeans for May shipments was 265 (with a premium of 175), and the on - paper crushing gross profit of Canadian rapeseed for May shipments was 284. As of April 10, the self - breeding and self - raising profit this week was 129.30 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan/head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 65.80 yuan/head, a loss of 39.06 yuan/head compared with last week. As of April 10, the national immediate spinning profit of 32s pure - cotton ring - spun yarn was - 297.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 723.1 yuan/ton from last week. On April 11, the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar in China was about 1,665 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 294 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the sales profit of white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar was about 1,782 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 450 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. - **Cost**: According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, it is estimated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 to 10 was 211,252 tons, a decrease of 6.63% compared with the export volume of 226,247 tons in the same period last month. The MPOB data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in March was 1,387,193 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.31 million tons; the palm oil import was 121,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; the palm oil export was 1,005,547 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 1.02 million tons; the palm oil inventory was 1,562,586 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 1.56 million tons. This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated steadily. As of April 10, the closing price of US soybeans was 1,035.50 cents per bushel. As of April 10, the average cost of secondary fattening this week was 14.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the pig - to - grain ratio was 6.46:1. The Cotlook:A index: 1% tariff price was reported at 13,825 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index: 328 was reported at 14,275 yuan/ton, with an internal - external cotton price difference of 450 yuan/ton. On April 11, the processed cost of imported Brazilian raw sugar (with a premium of 0.69) in China was about 4,884 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,255 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota); the processed cost of imported Thai raw sugar (with a premium of 0.88) was about 4,765 yuan/ton (within the tariff quota) or 6,099 yuan/ton (outside the tariff quota) [9][12][15]. 3.2 Oilseeds Sector Supply and Demand - **Palm Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of palm oil, as well as the supply and demand data of GAPKI and MPOB palm oil, and the direct import volume of China's three major oils, domestic oil mill crushing, production, and inventory [23][56][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, import cost, and profit of soybean oil [37][41]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Analyzed the basis, spread, import cost, and profit of rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in Guangdong [47][53]. 3.3 Feed Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, price difference, and profit of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the import volume of oilseeds and meal, domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal production, and inventory [72][88][91]. 3.4 Pig Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, monthly supply and demand, weekly profit, and weekly pig - to - grain ratio of live pigs [100][107][110]. 3.5 Cotton Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the basis, monthly spread, supply and demand (including import volume, industrial inventory, commercial inventory, factory load, inventory, and retail and export data), and global and regional supply and demand of cotton [122][129][151]. 3.6 Sugar Sector Supply and Demand - Analyzed the price, basis, and supply and demand (including domestic and international production, inventory, import, and export data) of sugar [161][167][169].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's continuous net investment maintains loose market liquidity, and the term spread further widens, reflecting a definite expectation of loose short - term liquidity. Amid complex overseas situations and domestic stock market fluctuations, the bond market still has short - term repair momentum. In the medium and long term, supported by a weak economic fundamentals and loose policies, the foundation for a bond market bull market remains. In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate due to the game between loose funding and supply disturbances, but the market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy stances and external disturbances will dominate the market direction [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1791, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 (-0.04%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.68%); DR007 is 1.49, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.21%); R007 is 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.60%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.60%) [8] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple graphs related to the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts, the price change rates of each variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds at each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds at each term in the past day, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the proportion of open interest in each variety, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in each variety, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in each variety, the trading - to - open - interest ratio of each variety, the bond lending turnover and the total open interest of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [10][12][14][17][20][23][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The report shows graphs of the interest rate corridor, the central bank's open - market operations, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [30][32][35] 4. Spread Overview - The report includes graphs of the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread for different combinations [39][41][42] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides graphs of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [44][46][52] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers graphs of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents graphs of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows graphs of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [3] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on July 10, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, and trading volume of each plate, providing a comprehensive view of plate liquidity [1][2][5] 2. Stock Index Plate - On July 10, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 458.41 billion yuan, a +9.52% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1069.218 billion yuan, a +4.66% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.20% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On July 10, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 398.037 billion yuan, a +35.26% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 917.331 billion yuan, a +0.37% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.80% [1] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On July 10, 2025, the base metals plate had a trading volume of 539.692 billion yuan, a +9.06% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 497.066 billion yuan, a - 0.07% change; the trading - holding ratio was 142.24%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 297.7 billion yuan, a - 35.39% change; the holding amount was 421.974 billion yuan, a - 0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 75.80% [1] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - On July 10, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 556.985 billion yuan, a +27.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 434.905 billion yuan, a - 0.16% change; the trading - holding ratio was 110.38% [1] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On July 10, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 296.017 billion yuan, a +15.77% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 571.605 billion yuan, a +0.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 45.71% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On July 10, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 335.237 billion yuan, a +71.83% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 371.906 billion yuan, a +1.76% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.84% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" trading in the industrial product sector is heating up, with prices of some commodities rebounding due to policy expectations. The market is awaiting the July Politburo meeting for potential further pro - growth policies. The US is implementing new tariff policies on multiple countries, and there are signs of inflation trading both overseas and domestically, but it faces challenges [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The June manufacturing PMI rebounded, but the economic stabilization foundation needs to be strengthened. "Anti - involution" policy expectations in industries like photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and others are rising [2] - On July 10, the A - share market rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3500 points, hitting a 9 - month high. Real - estate stocks had a涨停潮, and large - financial stocks strengthened [2] - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, and a second batch of tariffs on 8 countries will also take effect on the same day. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2][7] - Trump issued an executive order on clean energy and announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, and investigations in the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [2] Macro - inflation - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, shifting the US from a "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase to a "loose - prone" policy phase [3] - Overseas, the core is the currency - led inflation expectation. The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited inflation trading, but it faces challenges both overseas and domestically [3] Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium is over, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years [4] - The EIA expects the 2025 Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel. The ninth OPEC International Seminar was held from July 9 - 10 [4] - There are no short - term weather disturbances in the agricultural product sector, so the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and relatively insignificant market contradictions. Terminal demand lacks highlights, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand. Attention should be paid to the seasonal consumption improvement after the reduction of rainy weather. The short - term price of asphalt is affected by the strong trend of crude oil prices, but the medium - term upward space and driving force of crude oil are limited due to the expected loosening of the balance sheet [1] - The trading strategy for asphalt is a unilateral shock, with no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - On July 10, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 226,788 lots, a net increase of 3,805 lots, and the trading volume was 125,635 lots, a decrease of 31,302 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,630 - 4,070 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,600 - 3,700 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,700 - 3,850 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in Shandong and North China markets declined slightly yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Volatility - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Group 5: Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China), the closing prices of petroleum asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, the price difference of near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of single - side and main contracts of petroleum asphalt futures, the weekly production of domestic asphalt, the production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), the consumption of domestic asphalt in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventory (Longzhong caliber) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro - level positive factors continue to boost market sentiment, and the rising upstream coal prices lead to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures market. However, the fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly. Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, causing international oil and propane prices to decline. The production profit of PDH - made PP turns from loss to profit, and the cost - side support weakens. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film start - up rate rising from the bottom and the plastic weaving start - up rate falling, while other downstream start - up rates remain stable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7329 yuan/ton (+51), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+34). The LL spot price in North China is 7220 yuan/ton (+40), the LL spot price in East China is 7270 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 7130 yuan/ton (+10). The LL basis in North China is - 109 yuan/ton (-11), the LL basis in East China is - 59 yuan/ton (-51), and the PP basis in East China is 18 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The PE start - up rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and the PP start - up rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). The PE oil - based production profit is 87.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), the PP oil - based production profit is - 302.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), and the PDH - made PP production profit is 194.2 yuan/ton (-56.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 144.9 yuan/ton (-5.4), the PP import profit is - 640.5 yuan/ton (-5.7), and the PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 42.2% (-1.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Trump's claim to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st pushed up Comex copper prices, while LME and SHFE copper prices declined. If the tariff policy is implemented, it may be too late to transport copper to the New York market, leading to an increase in LME copper inventory. Currently, short - term LME copper is weak, SHFE copper is in a downward oscillation, and it's advisable to wait and see. However, the copper supply - demand fundamentals won't change fundamentally [7] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 10, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,600 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,700 yuan/ton and closed at 78,590 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the previous day, the premium of SHFE copper spot collapsed. As the price dropped and the month - spread widened to over BACK250 yuan/ton, near the contract change, holders sold actively, causing the premium to fall rapidly. Mainstream flat - copper premiums dropped from 40 - 80 yuan/ton to near - flat, and there were discounted goods around 11 am. Premium copper like Jinchuan large - board was traded at a premium of 20 - 60 yuan/ton. Non - registered goods had significant price drops, with discounts over 200 yuan/ton. Other goods in Changzhou were traded at discounts of 80 - 40 yuan/ton [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Many Fed officials spoke. St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought the impact of tariffs on inflation might not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit could be a financial stability issue. San Francisco Fed President Daly considered a rate cut in the fall and expected two rate cuts this year. Governor Waller reiterated the possible reasons for a July rate cut. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides were in close communication on economic and trade concerns. The Foreign Ministry stated that Trump's 50% copper tariff was not in anyone's interest [3] - **Mine End**: On July 9, Canadian junior mining company Super Copper agreed to acquire 100% of the Castilla copper project in Chile for a $100,000 advance payment. The total price is $1.3 million, with most payments due after achieving key milestones. The project covers 5,800 hectares in the Atacama region and includes 20 exploration concessions. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of July [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In 2025, 24 cathode - copper producers with a total effective capacity of 12.065 million tons (up 7.25% from last year, accounting for 83.84% of the national total) were tracked. From January to June 2025, they produced 6.0585 million tons of cathode copper, a 10.07% year - on - year increase. June output was 1.0617 million tons, up 12.91% year - on - year and 1.02% month - on - month. July output is expected to be stable at around 1.06 million tons, up 13.22% year - on - year. The US 50% copper import tariff won't affect Indian companies due to India's copper shortage, high domestic demand, and low copper exports to the US (only about 10,000 tons) [5] - **Consumption**: Based on a survey of 31 domestic copper - rod producers (with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tons), the daily copper - rod order volume was 12,200 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons (18.21% month - on - month) from the previous day. The refined - copper rod order volume was 8,100 tons, down 4,000 tons (32.91% month - on - month), and the recycled - copper rod order volume was 4,100 tons, up 1,300 tons (45.33% month - on - month). The actual transaction prices were 79,000 - 79,150 yuan/ton for self - pick - up and 79,100 - 79,200 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 4,625 tons to 108,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 393 tons to 21,729 tons. On July 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 143,700 tons, a change of 800 tons from the previous week [6] Price and Related Data Tables - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: On July 11, 2025, SMM 1 copper had different premium/discount situations for different types of copper. For example, premium copper was at a premium of 35 yuan/ton, flat - copper was at a discount of 5 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper was at a discount of 75 yuan/ton. The Yangshan premium was 62, and LME (0 - 3) was 22 [25] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 108,100 tons, SHFE inventory was 84,589 tons, and COMEX inventory was 202,671 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts were 21,729 tons, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio was 35.71% [26] - **Arbitrage**: The spreads such as CU09 - CU07, CU08 - CU07, and ratios like CU08/AL08 and CU0/ZN08 had specific values on July 11. The import profit was - 571, and the SHFE - LME ratio (main contract) was 8.12 [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream battery enterprises are gradually entering the peak demand season. It is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.79/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On July 10, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,897 lots, down 2,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52,534 lots, up 273 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,295 yuan/ton and a low of 17,120 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes narrowed to near par with SMM1 lead, but actual transactions were scarce, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales faced difficulties in closing deals. In Yunnan, holders' quotes at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales met with just the rigid demand. With a slight increase in lead futures prices, some holders were reluctant to sell and were waiting and seeing or intended to deliver to the warehouse, while downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement, resulting in a slight decline in market transactions [3] Inventory - On July 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 61,000 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the same period last week. As of July 10, the LME lead inventory was 252,375 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's tariff policy is advancing, but the resilience of the US job market supports the three major US stock indices to close in the green. In China, as policy expectations become clearer, the heavyweight sectors start a catch - up rally, with the real estate sector significantly rebounding and the stock prices of the four major banks hitting new highs, driving up the Shanghai Composite Index. The strong performance of the equity market is expected to form a capital attraction effect, increasing the willingness of residents to transfer savings and long - term institutional funds to enter the market, which lays a solid foundation for the long - term healthy operation of the capital market [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, from January 1, 2025, the basic pension level of retirees who have completed retirement procedures and receive monthly basic pensions by the end of 2024 will be increased by 2%, based on the average monthly basic pension of retirees in 2024. Overseas, Trump urges Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates and announces a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025. He also criticizes the Fed's current interest rate policy, claiming that the interest rate is at least 3 percentage points too high, causing an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the US [1] Spot Market - A - share indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.48% at 3509.68 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.22%. The real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, steel, and non - banking financial sectors lead the gains, while the automobile, media, and national defense and military industries lead the declines. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remains at 1.5 trillion yuan. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims is 227,000, the lowest in two months, and the number of continuing jobless claims is 1.965 million, still the highest since the end of 2021. The three major US stock indices close slightly higher, with the Dow up 0.43% at 44,650.64 points [2] Futures Market - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures fluctuates slightly. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increase simultaneously [2] Strategy - The current strong performance of the equity market can attract funds, with increased willingness of residents to transfer savings and long - term institutional funds to enter the market, which is beneficial for the long - term healthy operation of the capital market [3] Macroeconomic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.48% to 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rises 0.47% to 10,631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index rises 0.22% to 2189.58 points. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13][14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table shows the open interest and trading volume of stock index futures. For example, the trading volume of IF is 97,027, an increase of 14,938, and the open interest is 258,020, an increase of 11,835. There are also charts of open interest, open interest ratio, net open interest of foreign capital, basis, and inter - delivery spread of different stock index futures contracts [17][42][50]