社会库存持续震荡 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价21480元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-100元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录21450元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-125元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-20日沪铝主力合约开于21620元/吨，收于21530元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，最 高价达21640元/吨，最低价达到21515元/吨。全天交易日成交169843手，全天交易日持仓338582手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 库存方面，截止2025-11-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.1万吨，较上一期变化-2.5万吨，仓单库存69408 吨，较上一交易日变化-76吨，LME铝库存544075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860元/吨，广西价格录得291 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the unexpected increase in US non - farm payroll data has reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, leading to a decline in all three major US stock indexes [1][2][3] - The domestic market is operating with shrinking volume, with the trading volume of the two markets dropping to 1.7 trillion yuan. The willingness of funds to take over is limited, and the sustainability of sectoral market trends is weak. Attention should be paid to the support of the index at the lower edge of the box [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The content includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76% to 12980.82 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.12% to 3042.34 points, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to 4564.95 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.40% to 3008.29 points, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.85% to 7061.95 points, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.63% to 7340.41 points [13] - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: For IF, the trading volume was 128,286 (an increase of 5,673), and the open interest was 277,884 (an increase of 5,717); for IH, the trading volume was 58,076 (an increase of 4,537), and the open interest was 97,775 (an increase of 2,538); for IC, the trading volume was 137,568 (an increase of 4,976), and the open interest was 255,979 (an increase of 7,467); for IM, the trading volume was 211,533 (a decrease of 15,934), and the open interest was 361,945 (a decrease of 2,194) [16] - **Stock Index Futures Basis (Futures - Spot)**: For IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 6.95 (a decrease of 2.06), the next - month contract was - 25.75 (a decrease of 2.66), the current - quarter contract was - 58.75 (a decrease of 2.66), and the next - quarter contract was - 103.95 (a decrease of 4.66); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 0.31 (an increase of 2.66), the next - month contract was - 5.69 (an increase of 3.66), the current - quarter contract was - 12.69 (an increase of 1.26), and the next - quarter contract was - 23.09 (an increase of 1.06); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was 1.45 (an increase of 7.60), the next - month contract was - 61.95 (an increase of 6.00), the current - quarter contract was - 240.55 (an increase of 6.80), and the next - quarter contract was - 446.95 (an increase of 11.80); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was 7.19 (an increase of 4.00), the next - month contract was - 76.81 (an increase of 12.20), the current - quarter contract was - 305.21 (an increase of 13.20), and the next - quarter contract was - 533.41 (an increase of 15.20) [39] - **Stock Index Futures Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the differences between the next - month and current - month, next - quarter and current - month, etc. [46][48]

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about the US employment market as of November 20, 2025 [2] - The key data includes non - farm employment, recruitment, unemployment rate, and salary growth rate [2][3][4] Group 2: Recruitment Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly average recruitment plan dropped significantly to 30,447 people, a decrease of 80,766 people compared to the September average, and it was 127,000 in 2021 (104,000 in 2019) [3] Group 3: Non - farm Employment - As of September 2025, the total non - farm employment increased by 119,000, with the government adding 22,000 and enterprises adding 97,000 [3] - In terms of industry structure, the retail industry added 139,000, the wholesale industry added 94,000, and the financial industry added 50,000 in September [3] - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [3] Group 4: Salary Growth Rate - As of September 2025, the average weekly salary growth rate of private non - farm employment increased to 3.8%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to August [4] - In September, the growth rate of goods production was 3.7% (down 0.3 pct), and in service production, trade and transportation increased by 2.7 pct, information by 2.9 pct, and finance by 0.2 pct [4] - The non - farm employment presents a situation of apparent stability but internal weakness, with contradictory signals indicating weakening demand and a loose employment structure, which is not enough to prompt an immediate interest rate cut in December but strengthens the need for a subsequent interest rate cut cycle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on November 20, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On November 20, 2025, the trading volume was 727.794 billion yuan, a change of - 0.76% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1339.553 billion yuan, a change of + 0.73%; the trading - holding ratio was 53.89% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 575.231 billion yuan, a change of + 25.53% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 838.221 billion yuan, a change of - 0.09%; the trading - holding ratio was 67.68% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - Basic metal: The trading volume was 564.088 billion yuan, a change of - 4.94% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 606.192 billion yuan, a change of - 0.64%; the trading - holding ratio was 113.62% - Precious metal: The trading volume was 977.091 billion yuan, a change of + 21.73% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 447.343 billion yuan, a change of + 0.71%; the trading - holding ratio was 290.76% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 529.415 billion yuan, a change of + 11.44% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 456.358 billion yuan, a change of - 0.98%; the trading - holding ratio was 108.10% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 309.372 billion yuan, a change of - 11.18% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 599.657 billion yuan, a change of + 0.17%; the trading - holding ratio was 44.96% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 263.688 billion yuan, a change of + 29.96% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 369.927 billion yuan, a change of - 0.92%; the trading - holding ratio was 71.80% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 2.45% at 2,553 yuan/ton overnight, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,153 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continue to oscillate weakly. Although there are short-term disturbances from geopolitical and macro factors, the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, which exerts some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, low-sulfur fuel oil has recently performed stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil, but the situation reversed again yesterday [1] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market lacks a sustainable upward driver. Part of the Azur refinery's facilities under maintenance due to malfunctions are expected to restart around November 29, and Kuwait's low-sulfur fuel oil shipments have been zero so far in November. Supply will resume after the facilities restart [1] - There are still supporting factors in the high-sulfur fuel oil market. In particular, Ukrainian drones have continuously attacked Russian refineries, leading to a decline in their operating rates. Recent fuel oil shipments have been low, and the impact of US sanctions may further materialize [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 2.45% at 2,553 yuan/ton overnight, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,153 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a weak oscillation. The medium-term oversupply expectation in the oil market is pressuring fuel oil prices [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil recently outperformed high-sulfur fuel oil, but the situation reversed. The low-sulfur market lacks a sustainable upward driver, while the high-sulfur market has supporting factors [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - No strategies for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the market bottom to consolidate [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures market is in a low - level oscillation state. The cost side of crude oil is weak, and the fundamentals lack positive stimuli. Although there are some bottom signals, the rebound momentum is insufficient. The spot market is generally stable, with a weak trading atmosphere and no clear positive signals [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3058 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 191,962 lots, down 2,515 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 317,665 lots, up 135,611 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3156 - 3650 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3030 - 3520 yuan/ton; South China, 3090 - 3210 yuan/ton; East China, 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt futures market maintains a low - level oscillation. The crude oil cost is weak, and the fundamentals lack positive stimuli. There are bottom signals but insufficient rebound momentum. In the spot market, the price in North China decreased slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions were relatively stable. Although the supply in some areas is tight, the overall terminal demand is weak, resource consumption is slow, the willingness of market participants to buy at the bottom is limited, and the trading atmosphere is poor [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral strategy and wait for the market bottom to be consolidated [2]. - Inter - period: No strategy [2]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-21 现货涨跌互现，市场驱动有限 市场分析 1、\t11月20日地区价格：山东市场，4260-4400；东北市场，4040-4150；华北市场，4250-4400；华东市场，4170-4350； 沿江市场，4510-4810；西北市场，4300-4350；华南市场，4250-4450。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年12月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷567美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷557美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4426元/吨，跌5元/吨，丁烷4348元/吨，跌20元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷559美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷549美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4364元/吨，跌20元/吨，丁烷4285元/吨，跌36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期在外盘价格上涨、LPG到岸成本受到高贴水支撑的背景下，PG盘面呈现震荡偏强运行。现货方面，昨日整山 东、华北区域部分下调，其余区域维稳，整体氛围尚可，下游按需采购。就LPG自身基本面而言，海外供应相对 充裕，国内商品受检 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-21 丙烯下游整体开工环比上升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5871元/吨（+31），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5940元/吨（-10）， 丙烯华东基差54元/吨（-31），丙烯华北基差56元/吨（-12）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR152 美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（+1），进口利润-241元/吨（+9），厂内库存45040吨（-2150）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率47%（+3.02%），生产利润-210元/吨（+20）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润 647元/吨（+8）；正丁醇开工率82%（-2%），生产利润-295元/吨（+6）；辛醇开工率77%（+8%），生产利润-249元/ 吨（+57）；丙烯酸开工率73%（-2%），生产利润543元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-316元/吨（-43）； 酚酮开工率79%（+12%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 周内上游检修增多，丙烯开工环比下滑，而下游复产整体开工回升， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-21 下游开工逐步见顶回落 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6835元/吨（+2），PP主力合约收盘价为6400元/吨（-34），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-35元/吨（-22），LL 华东基差为115元/吨（-52）， PP华东基差为50元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为382.4元/吨（+204.2），PP油制生产利润为-407.6元/吨（+204.2），PDH制PP生产 利润为-376.1元/吨（-21.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为84.4元/吨（+55.9），PP进口利润为-208.9元/吨（-31.3），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...