1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coffee series of special reports consists of four articles. The first one focuses on the coffee planting end, systematically introducing the crop structure, growth climate conditions, global planting distribution, planting methods, main varieties, and yield - restricting factors of coffee [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coffee Crop Structure - Coffee plants are evergreen shrubs or small trees of the Rubiaceae family. Mature plants are usually 1.5 - 5 meters tall, and in artificial cultivation, they are often trimmed to about 2 meters. Their root system is fibrous, with a main root that can penetrate 1 - 2 meters underground and lateral roots distributed in the 20 - 60 - centimeter soil layer. The leaves are long - elliptical, leathery, and shiny, with slight differences in size and shape among varieties. The lifespan of a coffee tree is usually 30 - 40 years, with a peak production period starting 5 - 7 years after planting and lasting 10 - 15 years [6] - Coffee fruits are formed after coffee flower pollination. The coffee flower is a white five - petal flower that blooms after the rainy season, with a 2 - 3 - day flowering period. The development of coffee fruits takes 6 - 9 months. A mature coffee fruit weighs about 1.5 - 2.5 grams, is 1 - 1.5 centimeters in diameter, and consists of an outer skin, mesocarp, endocarp, silver skin, and seed (coffee bean). Most fruits contain two flat - oval seeds, and some contain a single "peaberry" with a stronger flavor [7] - Coffee beans are the core edible part of the coffee fruit, accounting for 10% - 15% of the fruit's weight. Freshly picked beans are green, with a 50% water content, which is reduced to 10% - 12% after processing. The abdominal groove of Arabica beans is S - shaped, while that of Robusta beans is straight. The internal structure of coffee beans is composed of endosperm, embryo, and micropyle, with the endosperm accounting for over 90% and containing flavor substances [9] Growth Climate Conditions - Coffee is a typical tropical and subtropical cash crop, and its suitable growth area is the "Coffee Belt" between 25 degrees north and south latitudes. The ideal annual average temperature is 18 - 25°C, and the most suitable growth temperature is 20 - 24°C. Arabica is more sensitive to low temperatures, while Robusta is more heat - tolerant [13] - The annual precipitation should reach 1500 - 2000 millimeters, evenly distributed with distinct wet and dry seasons. During the wet season (April - October), monthly precipitation should be 100 - 200 millimeters, and during the dry season (November - March), it should be less than 50 millimeters per month [14] - Altitude is a key factor in determining coffee quality. Arabica is suitable for growing at an altitude of 1000 - 2000 meters, while Robusta grows well below 1000 meters [17] - Coffee prefers well - drained, acidic soil with a pH of 5.0 - 6.5 and deep soil layers. It needs sufficient scattered light and often uses shade trees in high - altitude areas [18] Global Planting Distribution and Regional Features - Global coffee planting is mainly concentrated in South America, Africa, and Asia. South America dominates, accounting for 58% of the global output in 2024. Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer, with an output of 62 million bags in 2024, mainly planting Arabica [19] - Africa is the birthplace of coffee and a core area for high - quality coffee, accounting for 22% of the global output. Ethiopia is the native place of Arabica, and Kenya is famous for high - quality washed Arabica [23] - Asia and Oceania account for 20% of the global output. Vietnam is the second - largest coffee producer and the largest Robusta producer, with an output of 31 million bags in 2024. Indonesia has unique - flavored coffee, and Yunnan in China is an important Arabica - producing area [27] - Central American countries such as Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica are also important high - quality coffee - producing areas. With global warming, some traditional planting areas are moving to higher altitudes, and new areas like Nepal and Myanmar are seeing large - scale coffee planting [27] Planting Methods - Coffee planting systems include single - crop and compound - crop methods. There are five common structures, including non - shaded single - crop cultivation and different types of shaded systems. Each structure has its own advantages and disadvantages in terms of productivity, management intensity, and environmental impact, and its applicability depends on various factors [28] Main Varieties - The globally commercially planted coffee varieties are mainly Arabica, Robusta, and Liberica, with Arabica and Robusta accounting for 99% of the market share. Arabica accounts for about 70% of the global output, with low caffeine content and rich flavor [31] - Robusta accounts for about 30% of the global output, with high caffeine content, strong disease - resistance, and high yield. It is mainly used for instant coffee and other products [37] - Liberica has the lowest commercialization degree, accounting for less than 1% of the global output. It has a unique flavor but unstable yield and high processing difficulty [38] - In recent years, many improved varieties have been developed through cross - breeding and genetic screening, promoting the diversified development of the global coffee industry [39] Yield Restricting Factors - Climate change affects coffee production through drought, extreme temperatures, abnormal rainfall patterns, and hurricanes. By 2050, the suitable planting area for Arabica may be reduced by 50%, while that for Robusta may expand [40] - Diseases are devastating to coffee production. Fungal diseases such as coffee leaf rust, coffee berry disease, and coffee wilt disease cause significant economic losses and yield reductions. Bacterial diseases also cause varying degrees of yield loss in some regions [41][42] - Pests affect coffee production by directly feeding on plant tissues and spreading pathogens. The coffee berry borer and the coffee leaf miner have a large economic impact, and other pests also cause significant losses in different regions [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On January 12, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 101.85 million contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 130.58 million contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 232.75 million contracts; that of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 5.94 million contracts; that of ChiNext ETF options was 256.07 million contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 5.26 million contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 index options was 19.69 million contracts; and that of CSI 1000 options was 57.42 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on January 12, 2026. For example, the call trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 69.29 million contracts, the put trading volume was 40.88 million contracts, and the total trading volume was 110.17 million contracts [18] II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.56, with a month - on - month change of +0.04; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.99, with a month - on - month change of +0.02. Similar data for other options are also provided, such as the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 0.57, with a month - on - month change of - 0.15; the open interest PCR was 1.00, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06 [2][34] III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 20.22%, with a month - on - month change of +2.25%. For other options, the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 22.18%, with a month - on - month change of +3.25%; the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 29.63%, with a month - on - month change of +5.17%, etc [3][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR: Neutral [12] - BR: Cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - RU and NR prices are expected to stabilize slightly this week with the recovery of tire factory operating rates, but the pressure of domestic arrivals will suppress spot prices, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue in China. The cost - end support for rubber is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12]. - BR is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material prices and maintain a relatively strong trend. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream demand has no obvious highlights [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Heavy - truck market**: In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the heavy - truck market achieved nine consecutive months of growth from April to December, with an average growth rate of up to 41% [2]. - **Natural rubber imports**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2]. - **Global natural rubber production and consumption**: ANRPC predicted that in November 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [2]. - **Automobile tire exports**: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3]. - **Automobile production and sales**: In November, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a new historical high [4]. - **Côte d'Ivoire natural rubber exports**: In 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 1.98 million tons, a 13.4% increase compared to 1.74 million tons in the same period of 2024 [5]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and spreads**: On January 12, 2026, the RU basis was - 330 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,000 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton); the NR basis was 451.00 yuan/ton (up 7.00 yuan/ton); whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton); 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars/ton); the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) [6]. - **Raw materials**: Thai smoked sheets were 60.09 Thai baht/kg (down 0.13 Thai baht/kg); Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg); Thai cup lump was 52.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged); the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg) [7]. - **Operating rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 55.50% (down 2.43%); the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 63.78% (down 2.75%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (up 19,829 tons); the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,232,533 tons (up 30,677 tons); the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (up 3,900 tons); the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (down 1,007 tons) [8]. Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and spreads**: On January 12, 2026, the BR basis was - 270 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton); the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 443 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Operating rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.15% (up 1.97%) [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,770 tons (down 410 tons); the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons (up 50 tons) [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the methanol industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation in Iran has eased but remains uncertain, and it is an important variable affecting the methanol futures market. The methanol inventory at Chinese ports remains high, and there are expectations of MTO maintenance, which may increase the inventory pressure in January and weaken the future destocking expectations if the maintenance is realized [2]. - Coal - based methanol plants maintain high operating rates, and the resumption of southwest gas - based plants depends on the progress in the second half of the month. The inventory of inland plants is rising, and the traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - peak period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][24]. III. Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) are presented in the report [6][31]. IV. Regional Price Differences - The report shows the price differences between regions such as Lubei - Northwest, Taicang - Inner Mongolia, Taicang - Lunan, etc., and provides relevant charts [6][35]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether are presented in the report [6][49]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy is provided. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will have a significant impact on the lithium - ion battery industry, leading to reshaping of the industry structure. For lithium carbonate, it may support price increases in the short term but is more bearish in the medium - to - long term [2] - Current prices are greatly affected by news, with over - speculation. Inventory depletion has slowed down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices, so short - term sharp increases may lead to a correction risk [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened and closed at 156,060 yuan/ton, with a 9.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 68,491 lots, and the open interest was 506,702 lots, down from 510,874 lots the previous day. The current basis is - 4,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 2,5970 lots, a change of 610 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 148,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of 12,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 145,000 - 152,000 yuan/ton, also a 12,000 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,085 dollars/ton, a change of 135 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - As of January 8, 2026, the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and will be cancelled starting from January 1, 2027 [2] - The spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, up 715 tons; downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, down 2,458 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, up 2,080 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging on rallies [3] - Options: None [3] - Inter - delivery spread: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in crude oil is mainly driven by passive buying of crude oil due to commodity index rebalancing, with geopolitical sentiment premiums also contributing. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [1]. - In the PX market, after a significant improvement in PX profitability, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production. PXN has retreated due to a weakening fundamental outlook, but the medium - term outlook remains positive and is currently difficult to disprove [1]. - For TA, the inventory build - up pressure in January is not significant. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, PTA processing fees are expected to further improve [1]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 90.8% (a 0.9% month - on - month increase), while the weaving load continues to decline. The polyester load will decrease around the Spring Festival, and the average load in January is expected to drop to around 88% [2]. - For PF, production profit is weak, and the processing margin fluctuates weakly under weakening demand [2][3]. - For PR, bottle - chip processing fees are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads in South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [23][25]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA and PX plants in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [26][29][31]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts are provided [36][39][40]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Information on filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and related factory profits and inventory days is presented [47][49][57]. VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, and related production data and spreads [71][72][77]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Data on polyester bottle - chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and inter - period spreads are provided [87][89][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and jujube industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, although the sales space is suppressed by low - price substitute fruits, the price remains firm due to factors such as accelerated cold - storage outbound speed, lower than usual high - quality fruit rate, and rising acquisition prices this season. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the Spring Festival [4]. - For the jujube industry, the supply is sufficient due to the combination of new and old stocks. The traditional peak season may drive the sales speed, but it is necessary to focus on the merchants' stocking progress and actual sales speed [8]. Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9630 yuan/ton, a change of - 59 yuan/ton or - 0.61% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1489 and - 1289 respectively, with a change of - 158 from the previous day [1]. Jujube - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2605 contract yesterday was 9160 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton or + 0.11% from the previous day [6]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was + - 950, a change of - 75 from the previous day [6]. Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price oscillated and closed down yesterday. The transaction in apple production areas changed little, with different performances in different areas. The transaction was mainly concentrated in low - price goods in Gansu and Liaoning. The overall trading volume was small. The price of high - quality apples was supported, while the price of poor - quality apples showed a weakening trend. Although it is the Spring Festival stocking season, the sales space is squeezed by low - price fruits. The cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent [3]. Jujube - The jujube futures price oscillated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition in production areas has ended, and there was a slight reduction in production compared with previous years. However, the combination of new and old stocks leads to sufficient supply. The market focus has shifted to the consumption end. With the approach of the Spring Festival stocking season, there may be a peak in sales, but the supply - side pressure has not been eliminated [7]. Strategies Apple - Adopt a neutral strategy. The cold - storage outbound speed has accelerated this week. Although the sales space is suppressed by low - price substitute fruits, the price is still firm. Attention should be paid to the actual Spring Festival demand [4]. Jujube - Adopt a neutral strategy. The acquisition in production areas has basically ended. Although the production in the 25th season decreased compared with the 24th season, the inventory is sufficient. The traditional peak season may drive the sales speed, and attention should be paid to the merchants' stocking progress and actual sales speed [8].

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-01-13 苯乙烯港口去库超预期 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-168元/吨（-24）。纯苯港口库存32.40万吨（+0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费124美元/ 吨（-8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费120美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差157.8美元/吨（-6.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-205元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-630元/吨（-95），酚酮生产利润-869元/吨（-140），苯胺生产利润909元/吨（+64）， 己二酸生产利润-765元/吨（-63）。己内酰胺开工率74.22%（-1.30%），苯酚开工率85.50%（+4.50%），苯胺开工率 61.31%（+1.50%），己二酸开工率67.60%（-0.60%）。 苯乙烯装置恢复进度，伊朗局势动向，油价大幅波动，俄乌和谈进程 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差96元/吨（+21元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润397元/吨（+146元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PVC is weak. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream starts are generally flat, the inventory is increasing, and the cost - side profit is still low year - on - year. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu, high overall supply - side start, and general downstream receiving sentiment [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4940 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis is - 320 yuan/ton (- 43), and the South China basis is - 310 yuan/ton (- 43). - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4630 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+25), the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 634 yuan/ton (+80), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is - 18.2 US dollars/ton (+3.8). - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide method start - up rate is 80.23% (+2.00%), the ethylene method start - up rate is 75.69% (+0.41%), and the overall start - up rate is 78.85% (+1.51%). - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled from April 1st, and there may be a situation of rushing to export. The export orders still have resilience, which is beneficial to the contracts before April. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, the downstream start is generally flat, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The inventory is increasing slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The cost - side profit is still low year - on - year, and the pressure of hedging on the disk still exists. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, and the supply - demand relationship of subsequent contracts will be further relaxed [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Go long V03 - 05 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2180 yuan/ton (- 44), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 30 yuan/ton (+44). - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0). - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 557.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 239.20 yuan/ton (- 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 554.50 yuan/ton (- 50.00). - Inventory and start - up: The factory inventory of liquid caustic soda is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the factory inventory of flake caustic soda is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the start - up rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%). - Downstream start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%), the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (- 0.72%), and the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [1][2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline, and is weak due to the influence of low - price warehouse receipts. The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the disk has oscillated and corrected. The draft for soliciting opinions on differential electricity prices in Shaanxi has raised the cost expectation, but the impact is small. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong and Jiangsu. The overall supply - side start is at a high level, the demand - side receiving sentiment is general, and the export orders continue to be sluggish [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - Inter - delivery: Go short SH03 - 05 at high prices - Inter - commodity: None [4][5]

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-13 地缘事件持续发酵 贵金属延续强势 市场分析 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将 面临25%的关税。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗做好了应对一切可能的准备，希望美国作出"智慧的选择"。如 果美国选择军事手段，伊朗也做好了准备。此外，英国和德国正牵头多个欧洲国家，商讨在格陵兰岛部署军队， 以回应美国总统特朗普对北极地区的"安全关切"。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-12，沪金主力合约开于1004.48元/克，收于1026.28元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.97%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1026.86元/克，收于1030.26元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.39%。 2026-01-12，沪银主力合约开于18800.00元/千克，收于20945.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动11.82%。当日成交 量为1207195手，持仓量为325729手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于20900元/千克，收于21268元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨1.54%。 美债收益 ...