Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - Pre - holiday downstream stocking and price decline boost spot market transactions, leading to a drop in social inventory, but the spot discount is hard to repair. The overseas and domestic markets deviate, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing, increasing the warehouse receipt risk and supporting prices, while the domestic market still has supply - side pressure and a cumulative inventory expectation despite the good consumption in the traditional peak season [4]. Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $59.64 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rises by 60 yuan/ton to 21,890 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rises by 50 yuan/ton to 21,870 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On September 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,935 yuan/ton and closes at 22,045 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 158,280 lots, and the open interest is 131,286 lots. The highest price is 22,060 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,890 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 150,400 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 43,800 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-26 冶炼及进口方面，9月24日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在河北雄安新区召开。铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致铜精矿加工费持续低位的问题是此次会议中代表反馈最集中的问题，也是行业当下最突 出的问题。中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结讲话中强调，铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争对行业 影响大，损害了国家和行业利益，与高质量发展导向存在偏差，铜行业企业要坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。 与此前的反内卷不同，此次反内卷更多针对于精铜冶炼企业，但由于国内冶炼企业多为大型国企，因此具体反内 卷措施如果落实仍有待观察。 反内卷指向冶炼企业 但具体政策落实则仍有待观察 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-25，沪铜主力合约开于 81000元/吨，收于 82710元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.44%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 82290元/吨，收于 82380 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.40%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日电解铜现货转为贴水，SMM1#铜均价82130-82880元/吨，主力合约贴水30元/吨（跌25元）。沪 铜早 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The demand for both PE and PP remains weak, which continues to limit their upward potential and is still constrained by supply - side pressure. The recovery of demand is slow, and the cost support is insufficient. For PE, the supply is increasing, and the demand realization rate is slow; for PP, the supply pressure is large, and the profit at a low level restricts its downward space [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main - contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (+27), PP main - contract at 6,898 yuan/ton (+21). LL North China spot was 7,130 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 7,140 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6,750 yuan/ton (+20). LL North China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+23), LL East China basis - 29 yuan/ton (+3), PP East China basis - 148 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP开工率 was 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 48.7 yuan/ton (-128.7), PP oil - based production profit was - 571.3 yuan/ton (-128.7), PDH - based PP production profit was - 280.6 yuan/ton (-12.9) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 64.1 yuan/ton (+84.8), PP import profit was - 529.7 yuan/ton (-0.8), PP export profit was 15.0 US dollars/ton (-19.9) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.4% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply increased as many previously - shut - down plants restarted. Demand improved slightly with pre - holiday stocking, but the demand realization rate was slow, and social inventory decreased slowly. Cost support from international oil prices was insufficient [3]. - **PP**: Supply pressure was large due to expected restart of plants, increased coal - enterprise production, and new capacity release. Demand improved marginally but slowly. Cost was supported by firm propane, and low profit limited the downward space [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the US economy is re - verified, and the game of interest rate cuts continues. In China, policy expectations are rising due to increased economic pressure in August. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed has restarted interest rate cuts, with the market expecting a more extended easing cycle [1][2]. - For commodities, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, economic data in August showed signs of weakness, with features such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. External tariff pressure increased, leading to an increase in domestic policy expectations for stable growth. There were positive developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, including talks and a phone call between the leaders. On September 25, A - shares showed a mixed performance, and domestic commodity futures generally rose [1]. US Economic Situation - The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth rate declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot shows a more conservative outlook on future rate cuts than the market. There are deepening differences within the Fed on future monetary policy paths, and the US is facing a potential government shutdown [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints, and a major copper mine accident may reduce production. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term. In the chemical sector, some products have "anti - involution" potential. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are expected to strengthen due to de - dollarization and the interest - rate cut cycle [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals on dips in the commodity and stock index futures markets [4]. Key News - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%. US new - home sales reached a new high, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate was revised up. There were statements from Fed officials on interest - rate policies. The US government may shut down, and there were developments in US - EU trade agreements and new trade investigations. US EIA crude oil inventories decreased [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market will maintain a pattern of sector rotation with a shrinking trading volume in the remaining three trading days before the holiday, showing characteristics of a partial market [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the Ministry of Commerce included three US entities such as Flat Earth Management Company in the export control list and three US entities involved in arms sales to Taiwan, like Alcon Inc., in the unreliable entity list. Overseas, the US Q2 GDP final annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, and the initial jobless claims last week dropped to 218,000 [1] - In the A-share spot market, the three major indexes showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 3,853.63 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 1.58%. Most sector indexes declined, with media, communication, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment industries leading the gains, and textile and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and household appliances industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.4 trillion yuan. The scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time, with stock funds increasing by 63 billion yuan and hybrid funds increasing by over 33 billion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq falling 0.50% to 22,384.70 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures fluctuated on the day. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IF position increased [2] Strategy - With only three trading days left before the holiday, according to seasonal patterns, the market trading volume may continue to shrink, and the market will maintain a sector rotation pattern with partial market characteristics [3] Macroeconomic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [6][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on September 25, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.58%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.60%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.69%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.24%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.37% [13] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [16] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and position data of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased, while the IF position increased, and the positions of IH, IC, and IM decreased [17] - The basis data of stock index futures show the basis and its changes for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [39][42] - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures show the spread and its changes between different contracts [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the PG futures market has shown an oscillating downward trend, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization, indicating that the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged and market expectations are weak. The domestic spot prices have shown mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, while domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Market Analysis - On September 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4540 - 4600; Northeast market, 4000 - 4260; North China market, 4400 - 4650; East China market, 4260 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4540 - 4700; Northwest market, 4400 - 4500; South China market, 4498 - 4670 [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 596 dollars/ton and 583 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4666 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4565 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 589 dollars/ton and 576 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton each. In RMB terms, propane was 4612 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4510 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton [1] - The PG futures market has been oscillating downward recently, with a weak rebound after a brief stabilization. The domestic spot prices showed mixed trends. Overseas supply is abundant, and domestic chemical demand growth is restricted by profit factors as PDH device profits have been continuously declining and fallen back into the negative range. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and there is strong resistance above the market. After continuous corrections, the short - term downside space of the futures market is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of upward momentum [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]

市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9222.00元/吨，环比变化+96元，幅度+1.05%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8192.00 元/吨，环比变化+92.00元，幅度+1.14%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约10142.00元/吨，环比变化+221.00元，幅度+2.23%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9140.00元/吨，环比变化+170.00元，幅度+1.90%，现货基差P01+-82.00，环比变 化+74.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8370.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元/吨，幅度+1.09%，现货基差Y01+178.00， 环比变化-2.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10330.00元/吨，环比变化+190.00元，幅度+1.87%，现货基差 OI01+188.00，环比变化-31.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：根据阿根廷政府的数据，在阿根廷暂停对谷物出口征税近三天后，阿根廷大豆出口量创下至 少七年来最高水平。根据企业申报的数据，2024/25年度大豆出货总量达到1050万吨。据乌克兰国际文传电讯社25 日报道，乌国防部情报总局24日使用无人攻击艇袭击了位于黑海沿岸的俄罗斯关 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-26 船司下半月集体挺价，关注最终实际落地情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹40周报价875/1470，41周报价845/1410，42周报价涨至1080/1800；HPL -SPOT 10月上半月价格935/1435，10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半月价格1535/2535。HPL发布最新涨价函， 10月15日之后运价涨至1200/2000. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月上半月价格915/1515；ONE 10月上半月船期报价915/1435；HMM上海-鹿特丹 10月上半月船期报价968/1506; YML 9/29-10/14报价825/1250。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1010/1620，10月上半月船期报价1010/1620;CMA上海-安特 卫普10月下半月尝试挺价，价格为1310/2220。EMC 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1710；OOCL10 月上半月船期价格介于1400-1450美元/FEU， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - position spread at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of upstream devices drives up the operating rate. Two major PDH devices in Shandong are expected to restart soon, and the new production capacity in Shandong is ramping up, increasing the supply pressure in the propylene market. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stockpiling provides short - term bottom support for demand, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The stockpiling demand is poor, mainly for low - price and just - in - time procurement. The restart drive of major downstream industries is insufficient. On the cost side, due to the escalation of geopolitical situations and possible upgrades of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, the international oil price rebounds, and the external propane price is firm, providing support for the propylene cost [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures such as the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][32] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]