Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core View of the Report - After the OPEC meeting's production increase was confirmed, the crude oil price remained firm. The FU and LU prices are supported by the cost side, with limited downward space in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is operating weakly, with spot premiums, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining. The demand for fuel oil in Saudi Arabia may decline year-on-year during the summer peak season, while Egypt's import demand remains strong, providing some support to the market [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil market currently faces limited pressure but lacks obvious drivers. The market share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced in the medium term due to the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry, and its market outlook remains weak [2]. - The current market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and the high-low sulfur spread does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **High-sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.34% at 2,972 yuan/ton. The market structure is operating weakly, and the spot supply is relatively abundant. Saudi Arabia may increase the use of crude oil during the summer peak season, leading to a year-on-year decline in fuel oil demand. Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in July are expected to reach 570,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons compared to last year, and there is room for upward revision. Egypt's imports mainly come from the Middle East and Russia, which helps digest the supply increase in the Middle East [1]. - **Low-sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.27% at 3,687 yuan/ton. The current market pressure is limited, but there is no obvious driver. The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil may gradually recover from a low level since June, and Brazil's supply to the Asia-Pacific region has also increased recently. In the medium term, the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced [2]. Strategy - **High-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Low-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - **Spot-futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Three major filament manufacturers plan to jointly cut production by 15%, and the market atmosphere has warmed up due to expectations of policy benefits from the Politburo meeting around mid - July [1] - The supply - demand outlook for crude oil is poor, with supply surplus expectations pressuring oil prices, but geopolitical tensions provide some support; gasoline cracking spreads have limited upside, and the aromatics market has seen a decline in Korean exports of blending materials to the US [1] - Recently, several domestic PX plants have undergone maintenance, and PXN has widened. The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and the polyester industry shows a mixed situation with the polyester开工 rate at 90.2% (down 1.2% month - on - month) [1][2] - The short - term filament load is expected to remain stable, and the polyester load in July is expected to drop to 89% - 90% [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [25][27] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures present the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating loads of PX in China and Asia [28][31][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile, texturing, and dyeing industries [48][50][52] VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, and production profits and processing fees [70][81][85] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip monthly spreads [89][93][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoint - The rising upstream coal prices and the unexpectedly high tender price of Indian urea have boosted the international price and market sentiment, leading to a strong performance in the urea futures market. Some planned maintenance devices have postponed shutdowns, resulting in continued high production. With the gradual release of urea export quotas, export orders have been concentrated at ports recently, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories. Mid - stream traders have made appropriate replenishments, and upstream enterprises' inventories have continued to decline. Agricultural demand has continued to progress, while industrial demand has weakened. Downstream compound fertilizer plants have made appropriate replenishments, and the order receipts of urea plants have gradually improved [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - The report presents figures on urea weekly production and urea device maintenance loss volume, with data sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate are included, and the data is from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [18][22] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - The report shows figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, urea export profit, and spot export profit, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][29][35] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days are presented, and the data is sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][40] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, and futures warehouse receipts, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [43][46] Market Data - On July 10, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,777 yuan/ton (+7). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,860 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,860 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 83 yuan/ton (+13), in Henan was 73 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was 83 yuan/ton (+3). The urea production profit was 330 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 696 yuan/ton (-8) [1] - As of July 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+4.80) [1] - As of July 10, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83% (+0.58%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.43%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (+0.58) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry have slightly improved, with supply - side reductions by large northwestern plants and lower southwestern start - up rates compared to previous years, and a certain increase in consumption. However, the overall industry inventory level is high, there is hedging pressure after the rebound, and there is a possibility of复产 by short - term shutdown enterprises and during the southwestern wet season, while the terminal consumption has not improved, so the fundamentals are weak. The rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the sharp rise in polysilicon, and whether there will be policy support in the industrial silicon industry needs to be closely monitored. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and short positions need to pay attention to stop - loss or use options for protection [3]. - The polysilicon market has been affected by policy promotion and capital sentiment recently, with both futures and spot quotes rising sharply. Although the current spot has no transactions, actual transactions may occur in the near future. There are many policy disturbances such as anti - involution, storage and mergers, and self - disciplined production cuts in the photovoltaic industry. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions in polysilicon at low prices [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,250 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.74%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 381,237 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 248 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 8,700 - 8,800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,300 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The bottom price of domestic DMC rose slightly to 10,700 yuan/ton this week, and the quoted price of East China monomer enterprises was 10,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week, while other monomer enterprises' quotes rose to around 11,000 yuan/ton, driving a slight increase in the prices of DMC downstream products [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 39,500 yuan/ton and closing at 41,345 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 5.50% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 98,601 lots (97,187 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 1,014,567 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, with the price of re - feeding material at 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material at 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon at 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material at 43.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 41.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.60, a 1.40% increase from the previous period, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous period, the weekly polysilicon output was 22,800.00 tons, a 5.00% decrease from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 11.50GW, a 3.37% decrease from the previous period [5]. - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.15 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term: Pay attention to risks; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [9]. - Medium - to - long - term: Suitable to build long positions at low prices [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Weak and oscillating; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoint - Although the crude oil price was strong this week, its boost to the LPG market was limited. The price trends of domestic and foreign LPG were relatively flat, and the market lacked driving forces. The supply was sufficient, while the demand was weak, especially in the civil sector, and the growth space for deep - processing was limited [1] Market Analysis - On July 10, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4550 - 4610; Northeast market, 4160 - 4330; North China market, 4425 - 4650; East China market, 4380 - 4650; Yangtze River market, 4570 - 4690; Northwest market, 4050 - 4350; South China market, 4570 - 4700 [1] - In the second half of July 2025, the CIF price of propane in East China was 577 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton, and butane was 552 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4542 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton, and butane was 4346 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF price of propane in South China was 577 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton, and butane was 552 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. In RMB, propane was 4542 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, and butane was 4346 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1] - The prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River region decreased yesterday, while other regions remained stable. Overseas supply was abundant, and domestic commercial volume increased, with overall sufficient supply. Civil demand was in the off - season and remained low. PDH profit in deep - processing recovered, and the load increased, but the growth space was limited [1] Figures - There are figures showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - post carbon four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, and the closing prices, month - to - month spreads, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The significant increase in Brazilian soybean exports led to a loose domestic soybean supply. Coupled with the weak MPOB export data and the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the oil prices were under pressure and oscillated [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,638.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40 yuan and a decline of -0.46% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,944.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +24.00 yuan and an increase of +0.30% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,468.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -42.00 yuan and a decline of -0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -10.00 yuan and a decline of -0.11%. The spot basis was P09 + 82.00, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton and an increase of +0.25%. The spot basis was Y09 + 176.00, with a环比 change of -4.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40.00 yuan and a decline of -0.41%. The spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, with a环比 change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazilian Exports - ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports in July to reach 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase from 9.6 million tons in the same period last year - It expects soybean meal exports to be 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase from 2.01 million tons last year - It expects corn exports to be 4.34 million tons, a 7.66% decrease from 4.7 million tons last year [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 8, about 9% of US soybean growing areas were affected by drought, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year - About 12% of US corn growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 7% last year - About 3% of US cotton growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 22% last year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach 169.4879 million tons, a 14.7% increase of 21.7666 million tons year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 0.1179 million tons环比 - The sown area is expected to reach 47.6149 million hectares, a 3.2% increase of 1.4653 million hectares year-on-year and a decrease of 0.0049 million hectares环比 - The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.56 tons per hectare, an 11.2% increase of 358.638 kg per hectare year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 2.108 kg per hectare环比 [2] MPOB Monthly Report - Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a 10.52% decrease环比 - Production was 1,692,310 tons, a 4.48% decrease环比 - Imports were 70,015 tons, a 1.51% increase环比 - Inventory was 2,030,580 tons, a 2.41% increase环比 [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-11 供需博弈，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14375元/吨，较前交易日变动+110.00元/吨，幅度+0.77%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格14.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.24元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+395，较前交易日变动-350；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 15.24元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH09+865，较前交易日变动-170；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.38元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+5，较前交易日变动-110。 据农业农村部监测， 据农业农村部监测，7月10日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.24，比昨天上升0.34个点，"菜 篮子"产品批发价格指数为113.38，比昨天上升0.40个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.73元/公斤，比昨 天上升1.0%；牛肉63.59元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉59.26元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；鸡蛋7.05元/公斤，比昨 天上升0.4%；白条鸡17.07元/公斤，比昨天上升0 ...

油料日报 | 2025-07-11 花生现货行情持续僵持，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4105.00元/吨，较前日变化-6.00元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A09+195，较前日变化+6，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货连续第三个交易日收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低1%，主 要原因是美国贸易政策前景令人担忧，中西部天气条件良好，投机基金抛售。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌5.75美分到 12.25美分不等，其中7月期约下跌12美分，报收1012.25美分/蒲;8月期约下跌12.25美分，报收1009美分/蒲;11月期约 下跌10.25美分，报收1007.25美分/蒲。7月11日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江 佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-11 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收涨，传统淡季市场交易清淡，受消暑类替代品水果大量上市影响，走货一般，后续关注走货情况 是否转好及早熟果上市情况。分产区来看，上周随着气温继续升高，苹果仍处传统销售淡季，暑期消暑时令水果 的冲击，对苹果去库形成一定压力。大果剩余占比较多，目前发市场客户少量按需要货，电商客户因价格拿货吃 力。由于产地现阶段剩余库存处于低位，新产季产量预期较去年变化不大，苹果基本面暂无突出矛盾，初步预计 新季晚熟富士收购价或高于去年。后期需重点关注产区早熟品种价格走势及天气情况。 新季套袋基本结束，整体 套袋量较前期略有修正。甘肃产区走货速度放缓。目前剩余货源多集中在大型果业公司及大储存商手中，自提发 货为主，调货交易不多。山西、河南产区基本清库。辽宁产区 、剩余少量货源集中在存货商手中，按需发市场。 副产区基本处于清库阶段，整体行情不大。销区方面，广东批发市场上周早间到车辆环比前周明显减少，目前随 着气温升高，消暑类水果价格较低销售增多，部分现货商转做应季水果，冲击苹果市场走货，市场到车量仍处较 低位置，终端消化略有放缓，二三级批发商维持按需拿货。 策略 中性。当前库 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 产量库存均有增加，碳酸锂基本面仍未改善 市场分析 2025年7月10日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于64560元/吨，收于64180元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价下跌0.43%。当 日成交量为398022手，持仓量为323683手，较前一交易日减少3212手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳530 元/吨。所有合约总持仓591900手，较前一交易日增加6834手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加80331手，成交 量497318，整体投机度为0.84。当日碳酸锂仓单13191手，较上个交易日减少90手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月10日电池级碳酸锂报价6.26-6.47万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.155-6.255万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨。据SMM数据，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心 持续震荡上行。 当前期货市场呈现非理性反弹趋势。从市场成交情况来看，下游材料厂暂未有明确备库计划。需 求增量主要以长协加量或客供模式，现货贸易市场成交寥寥。但部分下游企业的刚性采购需求仍对市场价格形成 支撑，推动 ...