Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] Core View of the Report Although high copper prices significantly inhibit consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,530 yuan/ton and closed at 86,080 yuan/ton, a 0.50% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 86,540 yuan/ton and closed at 86,190 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase from the afternoon close [2]. - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,930 - 86,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 85 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 15 - yuan increase from the previous day. Low copper prices supported downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai continued to rise. However, about 40,000 tons of delivery warehouse receipts in Jiangsu may suppress spot premiums [3]. - **Important Information Summary**: The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers on the interest - rate cut, and almost all agreed to stop the QT. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the data into the November report, to be released on December 16 [4]. Industry Chain Situation - **Mine End**: Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in Q2 2026. In 2025 from January to September, the production of major copper enterprises showed differentiation, with some increasing and some decreasing. Codelco lowered its annual production target due to safety incidents [5]. - **Smelting and Import**: Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The import window remained closed with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign trade market was inactive, but there were two areas of structural activity. The market's focus is shifting to annual long - term contract negotiations [6]. - **Consumption**: China aims to add 100 GW of new - type energy storage capacity from 2025 - 2027, and the US is expected to add about 19 GW of storage power in 2025. Energy storage expansion will boost metal demand, and the copper demand in China's electric vehicle and energy - transition sectors is expected to increase by 18% to 3 million tons in 2025 [7]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 269,800 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,112 tons to 18,094 tons, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 114,300 tons, a 1,200 - ton increase from the previous week [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Buy hedges on dips between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton, and sell hedges for enterprises with relevant needs can be carried out between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Put on hold [8]. - **Options**: Short put [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 晚富士多产区以质论价，红枣新货接受度一般 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9375元/吨，较前一日变动-58元/吨，幅度-0.61%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1875，较前一日变动+58；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1075，较前一日变动+58。 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易表现稳定。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-11-20 市场流动性概况 2025-11-19，股指板块成交7333.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.35%；持仓金额13299.07亿元，较上一交易日变动 -1.15%；成交持仓比为54.71%。 国债板块成交4582.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.96%；持仓金额8389.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.09%；成交 持仓比为54.39%。 基本金属板块成交5933.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.58%；持仓金额6100.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.86%； 成交持仓比为118.78%。 贵金属板块成交8026.68亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.37%；持仓金额4442.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.17%；成 交持仓比为228.62%。 能源化工板块成交4750.54亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.69%；持仓金额4608.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.64%； 成交持仓比为95.02%。 农产品板块成交3483.08亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.67%；持仓金额5986.57亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.95%；成 交持仓比为51.02%。 黑色建材板块成交20 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The domestic spot discount of zinc has been significantly repaired, and the overseas inventory has increased, but the spot premium remains at a high level. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline. After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price increased significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic mining TC in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas mining TC also decreased synchronously. The smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased month - on - month. The short - term TC still shows a downward trend. The smelting end is under pressure, and the comprehensive smelting profit is severely compressed. The high - cost areas are facing comprehensive losses, and the smelting enthusiasm will be suppressed, so the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warrant inventory is still at a low level, and there is still a warrant risk. Most of the micro - data has changed from bearish to bullish. In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December and January has weakened, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to the decline caused by the emotional recession [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $129.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,360 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,360 yuan/ton and closed at 22,420 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 91,247 lots, and the position was 67,487 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,475 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,330 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market and uncertainties in global trade and Fed rate - cut expectations, short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% month - on - month change rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% month - on - month; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% month - on - month [10]. - The US dollar index is 100.13, up 0.54 with a 0.54% month - on - month change rate; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1109, down 0.002 with a - 0.03% month - on - month change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, down 0.03 with a - 2.04% month - on - month change rate; DR007 is 1.51, down 0.01 with a - 0.71% month - on - month change rate; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 with a - 1.24% month - on - month change rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures main contracts [12][16][19][23]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local bond issuance, inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures, and spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety [28][30][32]. 4. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][38][41]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, TS main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [40][42][51]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, TF main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, T main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][61]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, TL main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][70][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

油脂日报 | 2025-11-20 油脂供需结构稳定，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8852.00元/吨，环比变化+144元，幅度+1.65%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8356.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.43%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9813.00元/吨，环比变化-61.00元，幅度-0.62%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8780.00元/吨，环比变化+130.00元，幅度+1.50%，现货基差P01-72.00，环比变 化-14.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8540.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.47%，现货基差Y01+184.00， 环比变化+4.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.59%，现货基差 OI01+347.00，环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(12月船期)C&F价格1164美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调21美元/吨；阿根廷豆油 (2月船期)C&F价格1165美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调24美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-11-20 低硫油市场结构边际改善，但上行驱动仍有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.01%，报2560元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.21%，报3266 元/吨。 原油价格延续弱势震荡态势，虽然短期有地缘与宏观因素的扰动，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，对燃 料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前处于高低硫强弱格局收敛的阶段，前期偏强的高硫 燃料油基本面边际转松，市场结构调整。但下方支撑因素依然存在，尤其裂解价差的回调将刺激炼厂端的弹性需 求。低硫燃料油方面，近期尼日利亚、科威特地区供应边际收紧，海外汽柴油偏强也对低硫燃料油估值形成一定 提振。但中期来看，低硫燃料油面临船燃需求被替代的矛盾，且自身剩余产能较为充裕，目前现货市场也没有出 现紧缺的状况，因此不具备持续走强的条件。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：前期多LU-FU价差头寸可适当止盈 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by emotions and news, with significant price fluctuations. The industrial silicon market may see an improved supply - demand pattern after southwest production cuts, while the polysilicon market has large inventory pressure and is affected by policies and weak reality [3][7] - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the price may rise. For polysilicon, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to be volatile [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8985 yuan/ton and closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton (4.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 306,669 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,412 lots, up 10 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. Other downstream product prices also rose, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in a week [2] Strategy - The spot price is stable with some increases. After southwest production cuts, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The current industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity emotions and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and consider going long on dry - season contracts at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures oscillated strongly, opening at 52,300 yuan/ton and closing at 54,625 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,317 lots, and the trading volume was 361,538 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% month - on - month to 26.70, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% month - on - month to 18.42GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, down 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, down 2.45% month - on - month [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan), N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan). The polysilicon production in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the production in November in the southwest region was expected to decline [6] - The prices of battery cells and components remained relatively stable [6] Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]

Report Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Institution: Huatai Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On Hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences regarding the December rate cut, which may create short-term negative sentiment for both gold and silver prices. As a result, both metals are expected to trade in a range-bound pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold is projected to fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram, while the Ag2602 contract for silver is expected to move between 11,700 yuan/kilogram and 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis Fed Meeting Minutes and Employment Data - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed severe differences among policymakers during the rate cut decision last month, and the pro-rate cut camp did not have an absolute numerical advantage. There was almost unanimous agreement to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance sheet reduction. Some members were concerned about the risk of a disorderly stock market decline. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the non-farm payroll data into the November report, which is scheduled for December 16 [1]. Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (Au) main contract opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 937.00 yuan/gram, a 2.01% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 941.98 yuan/gram and closed at 935.42 yuan/gram, a 0.17% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver (Ag) main contract opened at 11,760.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,148.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.84% change from the previous day's close. The trading volume was 1,360,286 lots, and the open interest was 340,206 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 7,633 yuan/kilogram and closed at 7,644 yuan/kilogram, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On November 19, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, a -0.01% change from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.54%, a 0.01% change from the previous day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 19, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,586 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,549 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts the previous day was 486,709 lots, a 9.18% change from the previous day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 13,646 lots, and short positions increased by 11,943 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts the previous day was 1,943,912 lots, a 10.55% change from the previous day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,041.43 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,218 tons [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On November 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -11.67 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,350.29 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 77.13, a -1.76% change from the previous day, while the ratio in the overseas market was 80.34, a 0.46% change from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - On November 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 62,688 kilograms, a 4.93% change from the previous day. The trading volume of silver was 785,682 kilograms, a 26.08% change from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kilograms [7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 铝期货方面：2025-11-19日沪铝主力合约开于21485元/吨，收于21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化25元/吨，最 高价达21620元/吨，最低价达到21435元/吨。全天交易日成交202981手，全天交易日持仓347833手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.6万吨，较上一期变化2.5万吨，仓单库存69484 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存546075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得321美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-19氧化铝主力合约开于2776元/吨，收于2740元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-53 元/吨，变化幅度-1.90%，最高价达到2794元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交302092手，全天交易日 持仓426124手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-1 ...