Hua Tai Qi Huo
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十一期间风险提示和节后策略建议
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:44
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall funds are favorable, and tend to enter the market through fund channels during the bull market consolidation phase. The future stock index market will revolve around "anti - involution" and technology, with corresponding opportunities in the CSI 500 for "anti - involution" and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 for technology [5][11][40]. - The RMB appreciation momentum is limited, with short - term expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.10 - 7.20. The release of pre - holiday settlement demand supports the RMB, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been priced in advance, and the resilience of employment and consumption limits the downside space of the US dollar [14][17]. - For the container shipping index, the valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and the November and December contracts need to focus on the rhythm of price increase announcements and actual implementation. The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation difference [21][24][29]. - Seasonally, there are risks of pre - holiday adjustments in stock indices and pre - holiday depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, both of which recover after the holiday. In terms of commodities, it is advisable to hold gold during the holiday, and pay attention to coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors one month after the holiday. In terms of trends, overseas inflation expectations are dominated by currency, benefiting gold, and domestic focus is on supply - side policies, with opportunities in black sectors, new energy metals, chemicals, and pigs [36][40]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomics - During the National Day holiday from October 1st to 8th, there are 6 overseas trading days. Key events and data at home and abroad around the holiday include China's September official PMI, the US government's temporary expenditure bill, and various countries' employment and economic data [2][3]. - Domestically, pay attention to high - frequency economic data such as consumption, travel, and real estate sales during the holiday. In the US, there are risks of government shutdown and weakening employment data, which increase the expectation of interest rate cuts [4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, the fund positions showed a seasonal decline, but the share of equity funds increased by 123 billion this month. The share of theme and industry ETFs continued to rise, risk appetite continued to improve, and the margin trading balance reached a new high, but its influence weakened marginally [5]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciation momentum is limited. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.10 - 7.20. Pre - holiday settlement demand supports the RMB, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been priced in advance, and the resilience of employment and consumption limits the downside space of the US dollar. The on - shore swap points have recently risen, partially hedging the excessive RMB appreciation momentum. Attention should be paid to the impact of US economic data and policies during and after the holiday [14][17]. Container Shipping Index - October contract: The valuation is becoming clearer. The freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be between 1000 - 1050 points. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week rises by $500/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of about $1400/1500/1900/FEU, equivalent to about 1130 - 1150 points on the SCFIS. If the price increase fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [21]. - December contract: It is far from delivery. First, trade the price increase expectation (announcement of the November price increase letter around mid - October), then the actual implementation of the price increase letter, then trade the price increase expectation again (announcement of the December price increase letter around mid - November), and finally trade the actual implementation of the price increase letter until delivery. Due to frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [24]. - February 2026 contract: There may be a large expectation difference. If the "price high area" of "signing to support prices" is postponed to mid - January 2026, the February contract may be higher than the December contract [29]. Strategy - Seasonally, stock indices may adjust before the holiday and rise after the holiday, and the RMB exchange rate may depreciate before the holiday and recover after the holiday. For commodities, holding gold during the holiday has low risk, and pay attention to coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors one month after the holiday [36]. - In terms of trends, overseas inflation expectations are dominated by currency, benefiting gold, and domestic focus is on supply - side policies, with opportunities in black sectors, new energy metals, chemicals, and pigs [40].
原油日报:伊土管道重启遇阻,特朗普对俄态度转向-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 08:26
原油日报 | 2025-09-25 伊土管道重启遇阻,特朗普对俄态度转向 市场要闻与重要数据 1.\t纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.58美元,收于每桶64.99美元,涨幅为2.49%;11月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.68美元,收于每桶69.31美元,涨幅为2.48%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.53%,报490元/ 桶。 2. \t欧盟发言人:欧盟委员会将适时提出提高俄罗斯石油进口关税的计划。(来源:Bloomberg) 3.\t在伊拉克库尔德斯坦地区运营的八家国际石油公司已与伊拉克联邦和库尔德自治区政府达成原则协议,恢复石 油出口。声明称,协议框架一旦签署并实施,将允许"未来几天"重启出口。(来源:Bloomberg) 4.\t阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示,截至9月22日当周,阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1492.2万桶, 较一周前增加183.3万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加62.8万桶至667.6万桶,中质馏分油库存减少3.3万桶至161.8万桶, 重质残渣燃料油库存增加123.8万桶至662.8万桶。(来源:Bloomberg) 5.\t俄罗斯石油公司Rosneft ...
EG宽幅调整,基差走弱明显
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:40
化工日报 | 2025-09-25 EG宽幅调整,基差走弱明显 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日EG主力合约收盘价4234元/吨(较前一交易日变动+22元/吨,幅度+0.52%),EG华东市场现货价 4305元/吨(较前一交易日变动+13元/吨,幅度+0.30%),EG华东现货基差(基于2509合约)72元/吨(环比-12元/ 吨)。 生产利润方面:乙烯制EG生产利润为-80美元/吨(环比-7美元/吨),煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-300元/吨(环比 -53元/吨)。 库存方面:根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据,MEG 华东主港库存为46.7万吨(环比+0.2万吨);根据隆众每周四发布 的数据, MEG 华东主港库存为38.4万吨(环比+2.1万吨)。上周主港实际到货总数8.3万吨,周度港口库存持稳略 累;本周华东主港计划到港总数7.3万吨,到港量中性偏低,副港计划到港量2.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑:供应端,国内乙二醇负荷高位持稳,海外近期乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多,沙特仍有两 套以上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态,另外部分远洋货仍有推迟装船动作,九至十月内乙二醇进口量存在下修 空间。需求端,当前需求回暖 ...
山东烧碱去库,PVC随建材行业稳增长情绪反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:39
氯碱日报 | 2025-09-25 山东烧碱去库,PVC随建材行业稳增长情绪反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价4919元/吨(+28);华东基差-199元/吨(-28);华南基差-109元/吨(-28)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4720元/吨(+0);华南电石法报价4810元/吨(+0)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格690元/吨(+0);电石价格2890元/吨(+0);电石利润48元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-657元/吨(-155);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨(+20);PVC出口利润5.2美元/吨(+9.8)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存30.6万吨(-0.4);PVC社会库存53.5万吨(+0.3);PVC电石法开工率76.91%(-3.38%); PVC乙烯法开工率72.00%(-5.20%);PVC开工率75.43%(-3.96%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量75.6万吨(+6.7)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2548元/吨(+13);山东32%液碱基差-48元/吨(-13)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价800元/吨(+0) ...
甲醇日报:港口首度去库表现尚可-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The first destocking of methanol at ports showed decent results, but the absolute inventory at ports remains high. Future changes mainly depend on when Iran's winter maintenance plan will be announced. The domestic market is stronger than the port market, with domestic inventory decreasing again. For traditional downstream sectors, acetic acid inventory pressure is high, MTBE exports have improved, and formaldehyde operation remains stable [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures include methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions against the main futures, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][8][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [31][27][32] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show the total methanol port inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), domestic factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [35][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [38][53][51] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][56]
债市情绪脆弱,国债期货全线收跌
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:39
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment is fragile, and the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The dollar index is 97.85, with a day - on - day increase of 0.62 and a growth rate of 0.64%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1193, with a day - on - day increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.76%. DR007 is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.11 and a growth rate of 7.52%. R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.82%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.82% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple charts related to the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc. [15][17][19] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds, as well as the Shibor interest rate trend and the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [28][34]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [32][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report offers charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [59][61]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][72]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].
化工日报:地缘升温,PTA跟随成本减仓反弹-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:38
化工日报 | 2025-09-25 地缘升温,PTA跟随成本减仓反弹 市场要闻与数据 1、隔夜原油反弹较明显,亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石油配送设施发动袭击,特朗普对俄罗斯态度 变强硬,威胁若不愿达成停火协议,将准备大幅加征关税,地缘风险升温,隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整 后再度反弹。 2、终端订单有所好转,节前备货及原料价格反弹下长丝产销好转,江浙涤丝昨日产销部分放量,至下午3点半附 近平均产销估算在7-8成 市场分析 成本端,近期油价震荡运行,关注俄乌动态。隔夜原油反弹较明显,亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石 油配送设施发动袭击,特朗普对俄罗斯态度变强硬,威胁若不愿达成停火协议,将准备大幅加征关税,地缘风险 升温,隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整后再度反弹。 PX方面,上上个交易日PXN206美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨)。近期PX四季度供需面转弱,PXN走弱。中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行,同时短期内海外开工将进一步走高。由于综合生产效益较好,国内部分PX装置四 季度检修推迟至明年,以及个别装置四季度扩能,PX供应较预期继续增加。而下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后, 新装 ...
天然橡胶社会库存环比下降,降幅减缓
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, before the end of September, rainfall in the main producing areas may still cause disruptions, supporting the cost of rubber and limiting the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated restocking of downstream tire factories may be over, and with the slight increase in recent domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires has entered the seasonal peak season, the recent tire factory operating rate has rebounded, and the rigid consumption of raw materials continues, so the supply - demand contradiction is still not significant. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, the rubber price is expected to weaken, but the overall decline space will be limited [6] - For BR, recently, the overhauled devices will be restarted one after another, and it is expected that the upstream operating rate will rise again, and the supply of BR will increase month - on - month. The demand side currently shows peak - season characteristics, and the tire factory operating rate has rebounded to the normal level. However, after the concentrated restocking of tire factories ends, the raw material demand has declined. The supply - demand situation shows signs of loosening month - on - month. Recently, there are concerns about cost - side drag on BR. Mainly, the weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment of butadiene prices. At the same time, the recent inventory of butadiene is at a moderately high level, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking ends. It is expected that BR will show a weak pattern, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the lower price limit of BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,465 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,520 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] Export - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] Production and Sales of Vehicles - In the first eight months of 2025, the export volume of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. Looking at the August data alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month slight decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 740 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,285 yuan/ton (+ 202.68), the NR basis was 826.00 yuan/ton (+ 182.00); the whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton (+ 100), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 35), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38), the price of Thai glue was 55.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35) [4] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 3,550), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the BR basis was 80 yuan/ton (+ 110), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,559 yuan/ton (- 1) [5] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.72% (- 3.76%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5]
燃料油日报:高硫燃料油市场结构边际走强-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:38
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Go long the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low levels (positive spread) [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.7% at 2,860 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.26% at 3,387 yuan/ton [1] - The sharp rise in the FU futures was driven by the rebound of crude oil prices after a continuous correction, which boosted energy sector varieties, and the marginal improvement of the fuel oil's fundamentals, including reduced exports from the Middle East, slightly recovered refinery demand, and supply impacts from sanctions on Iran and drone attacks on Russia. The cancellation of all 29,910 tons of warehouse receipts at Dading Warehouse also supported the FU structure [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the market contradictions are relatively limited. The increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery due to the shutdown of its RFCC unit may continue, but the overall supply pressure is limited due to the decline in arbitrage cargoes from the West in September, medium to low domestic production, and the diversion of low-sulfur components by strong gasoline and diesel premiums [1] Group 3: Figures and Data - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]
尿素企业库存继续累积
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:38
尿素日报 | 2025-09-25 尿素企业库存继续累积 市场分析 价格与基差:2025-09-24,尿素主力收盘1673元/吨(+15);河南小颗粒出厂价报价:1610 元/吨(0);山东地区小 颗粒报价:1610元/吨(+0);江苏地区小颗粒报价:1620元/吨(+0);小块无烟煤750元/吨(+0),山东基差:-63 元/吨(-15);河南基差:-63元/吨(-25);江苏基差:-53元/吨(-15);尿素生产利润80元/吨(+0),出口利润1149 元/吨(+9)。 供应端:截至2025-09-24,企业产能利用率81.21%(0.08%)。样本企业总库存量为121.82 万吨(+5.29),港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨(-3.34)。 需求端:截至2025-09-24,复合肥产能利用率38.63%(+0.81%);三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%(+1.40%);尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日(+0.53)。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单,现货价格跌破前低后成交好转,持续性不足,现货价格震荡偏弱,随盘面反弹 成交好转,关注节前收单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始,淡季储备开始较少,工业需求复 ...