行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 17 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The cost support for ethylene glycol is insufficient, and the upward driving force is poor. From the supply - demand structure, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol has little change, and the price is expected to be stable [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 16th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4,292 yuan/ton, with the highest at 4,320 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4,272 yuan/ton, the settlement price at 4,298 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 4,272 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 151,106 lots, and the open interest was 310,766 lots. For EG2601, the closing price was 4,272 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, with an open interest of 310,766 lots and an increase of 1,993 lots. For EG2605, the closing price was 4,322 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, with an open interest of 3,084 lots and a decrease of 92 lots [7] Group 5: Industry News - Oil Price: International oil prices continued to rise. On Monday (September 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.30 per barrel, up $0.61 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.44 per barrel, up $0.45 or 0.67% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.78 - $67.85 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation this week was 4,352 - 4,354 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation for late September was 4,357 - 4,359 yuan/ton, and for late October was 4,342 - 4,344 yuan/ton. The current spot basis had a premium of 80 - 82 yuan/ton over EG2601, the basis for late September had a premium of 85 - 87 yuan/ton over EG2601, and the basis for late October had a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Polyester Market: The sales of polyester filament were sluggish, the terminal demand was average, the raw material support was insufficient, the sentiment and confidence of the polyester downstream were low, and the procurement was rational [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Multiple data charts were presented, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]

Report Information - Report title: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - On the 16th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,688 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.09%. The settlement price was 4,692 yuan/ton, and the daily open interest increased by 4,394 lots. The low processing fee for PTA continued to be favorable, but there were no unplanned device overhauls. The sales of downstream polyester filament were poor, and market confidence was insufficient. It is expected that the PTA market will remain stable [6]. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: - TA2601: Closing price of 4,688 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, total volume of 640,160 lots, an increase of 4,394 lots. - TA2605: Closing price of 4,734 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, total volume of 21,063 lots, an increase of 1,946 lots [6] Industry News - Investors are evaluating the impact of Ukrainian drones on a refinery in a European country. At the same time, Trump said that if NATO countries stop buying oil from a European country, he is prepared to impose sanctions on that country. Affected by this, international oil prices continued to rise. On Monday (September 15), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.30 per barrel, up $0.61 from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.97%, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the Intercontinental Exchange in London was $67.44 per barrel, up $0.45 from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.67%, with a trading range of $66.78 - $67.85 [7]. - **PX Market**: - The price in the Chinese market was estimated at $833 - $835 per ton, down $2 per ton. - The price in the South Korean market was estimated at $813 - $815 per ton, down $2 per ton. Against the backdrop of tense geopolitical relations, oil prices continued to fluctuate strongly, providing some support to the PX cost side. However, the domestic PX supply capacity has increased, while demand has not kept up, which has pressured the confidence of market participants in the future. The main negotiated cargoes have shifted to November, and the near - strong and far - weak structure has continued. There were two transactions reported during the day, with any November cargoes traded at $835 per ton and any December cargoes traded at $833 per ton [7]. - **PTA Market in East China**: The price was 4,618 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiated basis was a discount of 78 yuan/ton compared to the futures contract 2601, up 6 yuan [7]. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the closing price of international crude oil futures main contracts, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA price summaries, basis differences between futures and spot prices, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 17 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oils and fats [1] - Report date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9132 | 9190 | 9278 | 9186 | 9252 | 120 | 31% | 27698 | 83089 | 1606 | | P2601 | 9370 | 9442 | 9528 | 9430 | 9482 | 112 | 1.20% | 591669 | 451732 | 18379 | | Y2605 | 8056 | 8060 | 8152 | 8090 | 8122 | 66 | 0.82% | 44087 | 226828 | 4786 | | Y2601 | 8356 | 8398 | 8448 | 8384 | 8418 | 62 | 0.74% | 297563 | 597762 | 1330 | | O1605 | 9517 | 9517 | 9604 | 9472 | 9586 | 69 | 0.73% | 23590 | 41526 | 2856 | | Ol601 | 9877 | 9918 | 10063 | 9900 | 10053 | 176 | 1.78% | 350650 | 333040 | 51403 | [7] - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil basis prices: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230. First - grade rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330. First - grade soybean oil basis prices in East China market: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200. East China's 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quotes: September basis P2601 - 50; October basis P2601 + 0; October - November basis P2601 + 50 [7] Core Viewpoints - Macro aspect: The press conference of the China's Ministry of Commerce on international trade negotiations did not mention specific issues regarding Sino - US agriculture, causing market concerns about future supply. The three major oils increased in positions and prices, especially the rapeseed oil main contract OI601, which increased positions by more than 50,000 lots and broke through the 10,000 - point mark, reaching a one - month high. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply sources. Traders mainly pushed up prices for sales, and the basis quotes continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. The Malaysian market was closed on Tuesday, and the Dalian palm oil fluctuated strongly. The domestic spot market was relatively quiet, mainly trading on origin information. Due to the high soybean crushing volume of oil mills, domestic soybean oil continued to accumulate inventory, with high inventory levels and abundant supply. However, the market was worried about the long - term soybean supply, and the cost side provided strong support, so soybean oil lacked room to decline. It is recommended to mainly buy low and go long on the three major oils [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China were 0.83 tons, a decrease of 0.57 tons compared to last week's 1.4 tons [10] - According to data from the Southern Palm Oil Manufacturers' Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), from September 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.09% month - on - month. Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease compared to the 482,576 tons exported from August 1 - 10. Exports to China were 0.8 tons, higher than the 0.1 tons in the same period last month. Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decrease compared to the 339,143 tons exported from August 1 - 10 [11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][23][28][29]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The release of weak economic data on September 15 boosted the bond market, with treasury bond futures closing higher across the board. However, the bond market still lacks a breakthrough, and investors may need to be patient and wait for better allocation opportunities. The short - end bonds are more resilient than the long - end bonds under the support of loose liquidity [8][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Economic data weakness boosted the bond market, with all treasury bond futures closing higher. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term decline and long - term increase, with the medium - and long - term changes around 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.8000%, up 1.05bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank withdrew funds in the open market, and the overall funding situation was stable. There were 3115 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2800 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 315 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose slightly, and medium - and long - term funds also increased slightly [10]. - **Conclusion**: The national economic activities in August showed weakness, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again, indicating that the foundation for domestic demand recovery is still weak. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is not high, and policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. However, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may ease. The short - end bonds are more resilient under the support of loose funds [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, real estate investment declined year - on - year, consumption growth slowed down, and industrial added value increased year - on - year. From January to August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale was higher than the same period last year [13][14]. - **Policy News**: The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal policy has sufficient room for action. A 500 billion yuan special treasury bond was issued this year, which is expected to leverage about 6 trillion yuan of credit [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on September 15, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided. Also, there are details about the inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads of the main contracts, as well as the trend of the main contracts [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Graphs showing the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, and the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates are presented [28][30]. - **Derivatives Market**: Graphs of Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) are provided [33].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Zinc 2510 contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.13%, with reduced volume and positions. The 10 - 11 spread was -5. Domestic processing fees have limited upward momentum, and the SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. By - product sulfuric acid prices declined due to supply recovery. Despite a contraction in comprehensive profits, they remain at a relatively high level. In September, more smelters are under maintenance, and some secondary zinc enterprises face tight raw material supply and rising prices, so the monthly output is expected to decline by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons, with the supply side remaining generally loose. After the parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China were lifted, and the operating rates in the primary consumption sectors increased month - on - month. However, the improvement in the consumption side is slowly transmitted upstream, and social inventories continued to accumulate on Monday, with a slower accumulation pace. The domestic and foreign inventory performances are differentiated, with LME zinc inventories dropping to around 50,000 tons, and concerns about overseas refined zinc supply have caused a spot premium, strengthening the 0 - 3B. Weak US employment data has consolidated the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the rising center of London zinc has a driving effect on the domestic market. However, the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc and the absence of an inflection point in inventory reduction result in insufficient upward driving force, maintaining a range - bound pattern, with a reference range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, changes, change rates, positions, and position changes of Shanghai Zinc 2509, 2510, and 2511 contracts are presented. Shanghai Zinc 2510 closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.13%, with positions decreasing by 5,694 to 92,003 hands [7] - **Processing Fees and Supply**: Domestic processing fees have limited upward momentum, with local quotes showing a narrow decline but no downward trend. The SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. Sulfuric acid prices declined, and although comprehensive profits contracted, they are still at a relatively high level. In September, smelter maintenance increased, and some secondary zinc enterprises faced raw material issues, with expected monthly output dropping by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons [7] - **Consumption and Inventory**: After the parade, consumption in the primary sectors improved, but the improvement was slowly transmitted upstream. Social inventories continued to accumulate on Monday, with a slower pace. LME zinc inventories dropped to around 50,000 tons, and overseas supply concerns led to a spot premium [7] Group 5: Industry News - On September 15, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc, 1 zinc, and high - end brands like Shuangyan in different regions (including Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong) are reported, along with their quotes relative to the SMM average price, the 2510 contract, and the Shanghai spot price [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as the SMM seven - region weekly zinc ingot inventory (in 10,000 tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE inter - month spread, with data sources from SMM, Wind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand of industrial silicon has deepened. The resumption of production in the southwest and northern production areas has increased the weekly output to 95,500 tons, and the monthly output is expected to reach 420,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon is optimistically estimated at 145,000 tons, organic silicon at 120,000 tons, and export and alloy demand at 110,000 tons, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 45,000 tons. There is no inventory - reduction drive in the market. Despite fewer industrial policies for industrial silicon compared to polysilicon, the anti - involution policy has been set. The situation of "weak reality + strong policy expectation" makes funds more sensitive to policy drivers. The sharp rise in raw material prices drives the intraday price up, but the short - term futures price runs cautiously and strongly under the premium [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.86%. The trading volume was 498,210 lots, and the open interest was 290,948 lots, with a net increase of 12,960 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The price of 553 - grade industrial silicon in Sichuan was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market News - On September 15th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,905 lots, a net decrease of 93 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - The relevant departments are actively promoting industry self - regulation and capacity governance in key industries. In August, the year - on - year decline in ex - factory prices of industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics narrowed, which is beneficial for prices to return to a reasonable range [5]. - The prices of main products in the industrial chain remained stable. The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 52,000 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC market price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the average market price of organic silicon DMC was 10,730 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [5].

General Information - Reported industry: Bean meal [1] - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Bean Meal Contracts**: The contract prices of domestic bean meal decreased. For example, the closing price of Bean Meal 2601 was 3042, down 45 or -1.46% from the previous settlement; Bean Meal 2509 closed at 2919, down 104 or -3.44%; and Bean Meal 2511 closed at 3013, down 44 or -1.44%. [6] - **Foreign Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1040 cents. The USDA's September monthly supply - demand report had a slight negative impact, but the market reaction was limited. The market is focused on the China - US economic and trade consultations in Spain this week, which may affect the export of CBOT soybeans and the supply of domestic bean meal. [7] Operation Suggestions - In the short term, due to the poor USDA September report and potential trade changes, there is a strong sentiment among bulls to leave the market and wait. The market is expected to be in low - level oscillation. If there is no new news from the consultations this week, the futures may rebound, but the pressure on spot supply will persist in the short and medium term. In the long term, the import cost is expected to rise. [7] 2. Industry News - **USDA Report**: In September, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season was 4.301 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels; the expected ending inventory was 300 million bushels, up from the previous 290 million bushels. [7][10] - **Agricultural Rural Ministry Report**: In September, it was estimated that China's soybean imports in the 2024/2025 season would be 104 million tons, an increase of 5.76 million tons from the previous estimate, mainly due to improved oil - mill crushing profits. The soybean crushing volume was also adjusted upwards to 98.9 million tons. The supply - demand forecast for the 2025/2026 season remained unchanged from the previous month. [10] - **USDA System Upgrade**: The US Department of Agriculture plans to launch an upgraded system for its export net sales report on October 23, and the first weekly sales report using the new system will be released on October 30. [11] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to bean meal, including the ex - factory price of bean meal, the basis of the Bean Meal 01 contract, the spread between Bean Meal 1 - 5, the spread between Bean Meal 5 - 9, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. [12]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2511 合约低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 13290 元/吨，最低 13120 元/吨，收盘报 13275 元/ ...