行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 合药 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 : | 收盘价 | :流歧: | 张跌幅 | 成交重 | 特企量 | 持仓堂变化 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts, including 2601, 2509, and 2511, all declined. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3050, down 10 (-0.33%); the 2509 contract closed at 3006, down 7 (-0.23%); and the 2511 contract closed at 3022, down 11 (-0.36%) [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts were volatile, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent decline in soybean meal prices was mainly due to the expected Sino - US trade negotiations and the unexpectedly high excellent - rate of US soybeans [6]. Reasons for the Recent Decline - **Trade Negotiations**: With the approaching US soybean harvest season, US farmers are under increasing pressure. As the largest buyer of US soybeans, China has not purchased new - season US soybeans. The US Soybean Association urged Trump to repair trade relations with China, and Trump said he might visit China this year. There were also rumors of direct state - reserve purchases of US soybeans, causing the market to give back the previous optimistic premium [6]. - **Excellent Rate**: The latest excellent rate of US soybeans announced by USDA this week was 69%, higher than the expected 67%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 67%. The current excellent rate is the highest in the past five years, increasing the pressure of a bumper harvest [6]. Medium - term Outlook - **Import Substitution**: In the fourth quarter, with the 23% tariff on US soybeans remaining unchanged, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans and supplement with some Argentine soybeans. There may still be a small import gap, which could be filled by state - reserve auctions [6]. - **Cost Trend**: As Brazilian soybeans are being sold out, the marginal price may rise. Considering weather factors, there is little possibility of a significant decline in the Brazilian FOB price in the fourth quarter. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter. With the import of Canadian rapeseed blocked, the medium - term outlook is still bullish after corrections [6]. 2. Industry News - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast**: StoneX predicted that the production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season (sown in September) would reach a record 178.2 million tons, stable compared with the August forecast. If confirmed, the production would increase by 5.6% compared with the previous year due to the expected increase in planting area and average national yield [8]. - **Pakistan's Purchase Agreement**: Pakistan is expected to sign a major purchase agreement with major US soybean exporters, planning to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans with a total transaction value of about $500 million [8]. - **Brazilian Regulatory Decision**: A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban, temporarily suspending a decision of the Brazilian antitrust regulator CADE, which required global soybean traders to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is more certain that the Fed will restart the interest - rate cut process at the September 17 meeting. The dollar index has fallen to 97.6, and London gold has risen to $3476 per ounce, with silver prices rising by more than 4%. The Fed's interest - rate cut may boost the gold price to break through the resistance and start a new upward trend, which may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious - metal trading [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut, international trade currency system restructuring, and geopolitical risks may jointly push the gold price to break through the $3500 mark. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price, and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Due to more Fed officials supporting the second - stage interest - rate cut and the US July PCE inflation stabilizing and rising in line with market expectations, the dollar index fell and gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest - rate cut may start a new upward trend for gold, and this round of rally may last until the spring - summer of 2026. This week, attention should be paid to global August PMI data, US August employment data, and China's September 3 military parade [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to now, London gold has oscillated widely. Although international trade situation improvement and financial market recovery have weakened gold's safe - haven demand, factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and international trade currency system restructuring support the gold price. The gold price may break through $3500 per ounce, and silver will also rise following gold [5]. 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and China jointly oppose discriminatory sanctions in world trade, and will discuss new prospects and measures for mutually beneficial cooperation during Putin's visit to China [17]. - US consumer spending in July had the largest increase in four months, and service - sector inflation rose. Economists believe that the Fed may still cut interest rates in September [17]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports interest - rate cuts due to risks in the labor market [17]. - The court hearing on Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook ended without an immediate ruling, and Cook will remain in office for now [17]. - The US Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's tariffs are illegal, but allowed tariffs to continue until October 14, giving the Trump administration a chance to appeal to the US Supreme Court [18].

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall consumption in the US peak season this year is weak, and the market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices, which are expected to continue to consolidate at the bottom and may decline again in the medium term [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $64.26, closing at $64.01, with a high of $64.55, a low of $63.88, a decline of 0.91%, and a trading volume of 164,000 lots. Brent's opening price was $67.59, closing at $67.46, with a high of $67.94, a low of $67.29, a decline of 0.76%, and a trading volume of 263,600 lots. SC's opening price was 487 yuan/barrel, closing at 483.5 yuan/barrel, with a high of 487.2 yuan/barrel, a low of 479.3 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.12%, and a trading volume of 81,100 lots [6] - **Analysis**: As of the week ending on the 22nd, the inventories of US crude oil and refined oil decreased across the board, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the US travel peak season is coming to an end, and the refinery operating rate has also declined slightly. There may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the later period. US gasoline consumption has not improved significantly this summer despite lower prices compared to last year [6] 2. Industry News - India's oil procurement has stabilized the market and prevented oil prices from rising to $200 per barrel [7] - As of the week ending on September 1, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries was 2.982 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons or 1.13% compared to the previous week. In the same period last year, the arrival volume was 1.237 million tons, an increase of 18,000 tons or 1.48%. The arrived crude oil was mainly medium - quality crude oil, including 400,000 tons of Russian crude oil and one new shipment of diluted bitumen [7] - On September 1 local time, the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked the "ScarletRay" oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. The Israeli Defense Forces launched an air strike on Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, on August 28. On August 31, Houthi leader Abdul - Malik al - Houthi said that retaliation would be launched and the scale of military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel would be escalated in the future [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Dtd Brent, and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, EIA, etc. [9][14][19]

General Information - Report Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 9310 | 9300 | 9378 | 9182 | 9330 | 20 | 0.21% | 255 | 2140 | -146 | | P2601 | 9348 | 9300 | 9392 | 9240 | 9384 | 36 | 0.39% | 669906 | 462237 | -16489 | | Y2509 | 8414 | 8414 | 8516 | 8350 | 8390 | -24 | -0.29% | 1039 | 3867 | -1702 | | Y2601 | 8358 | 8360 | 8360 | 8296 | 8348 | -10 | -0.12% | 285870 | 641642 | -8247 | | 609GO | 9968 | 9968 | 10030 | 9925 | 9930 | -38 | -0.38% | 644 | 2288 | -386 | | OI601 | 9782 | 9779 | 9848 | 9710 | 9801 | 19 | 0.19% | 285036 | 263549 | -52 | [7] Basis Quotes - Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' basis quotes: September: OI2601 + 40 (Guangxi), October: OI2601 + 80 (Guangxi) - East China refined tertiary rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601 + 120, October - November: OI2601 + 170 - East China refined primary rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601 + 130 - East China soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil: September: Y2601 + 220; October - January: Y2601 + 280 - Dongguan 24-degree palm oil: Various factories' quotes range from 01 - 60 to 01 + 20 [7] Oil and Fats Analysis - Soybean oil: Short-term high inventory and abundant supply, but market concerns about long-term soybean supply and strong cost support limit its downside - Rapeseed oil: Domestic supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly due to tariff policies. Supply is sufficient by the end of the year, and the long-term situation depends on policies. Strong cost support makes the price likely to rise - Palm oil: The biggest variable in the oil and fats sector. Production in the producing regions may still increase in the third quarter, and export data is rising. The current futures price is unlikely to fall deeply, but the upside is also limited - Operation Suggestion: Roll long on single oil and fats contracts, and conduct a long rapeseed oil - short soybean oil arbitrage [8] 2. Industry News Indonesia - Despite increased production, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month-on-month to 2.53 million tons due to rising exports - In June, Indonesia exported 3.61 million tons of palm oil, a month-on-month increase of 35.4% - June's crude palm oil production increased by 15.8% month-on-month to 4.82 million tons - In the first half of the year, palm oil production, including palm kernel oil, reached 27.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [9] Malaysia - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 1.21% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 3.26% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [10] 3. Data Overview Palm Oil Export - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 933,437 tons, a 36.4% increase compared to the same period in July - Exports to China were 81,000 tons, higher than 58,000 tons in the same period last month [18] Domestic Palm Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 35th week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 558,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week - The contract volume was 33,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [18]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 2, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recovery of sugar production in Brazil suppresses sugar prices, while Zhengzhou sugar shows relatively strong performance compared to the external market, with the 5600 mark having strong support [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures weakened slightly, with the main October contract closing down 0.85% at 16.34 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed down 0.1% at $492.70 per ton. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to weaken yesterday, with the 01 contract closing at 5623 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan or 0.45%, and reducing positions by 264 lots. Today, Zhengzhou sugar 01 fluctuated narrowly, performing slightly stronger than the external market, with three consecutive lower shadow lines on the technical chart and strong support at the 5600 mark. After the market, the previous speculative long positions started to turn short [7][8] - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Unica report, in the first half of August, the total sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.17%, and the sugar production increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons [7] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in the producing areas decreased slightly, with the price of Nanning sugar at 5960 yuan and that of Kunming sugar at 5790 yuan [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil's Port Shipping**: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting for export in the week, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.4764 million tons. The quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 1.7817 million tons, and that at Paranagua Port was 0.6127 million tons [9] - **Brazil's Sugar Production Forecast**: Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for the country's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to 44.5 million tons, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast due to adverse weather affecting sugarcane cultivation. The sugar production in the central - southern region is currently estimated at 40.6 million tons, a 2.8% decrease from the April forecast of 41.8 million tons. Despite the downward adjustment, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [9] - **ICE Position Data**: As of the week ending August 19, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 lots, a decrease of 2,291 lots from the previous week. Speculative long positions were 179,365 lots, a decrease of 11,403 lots from the previous week; speculative short positions were 310,352 lots, an increase of 4,227 lots from the previous week; speculative net short positions were 130,987 lots, an increase of 15,630 lots from the previous week [9] - **Guangxi Sugar Inventory**: According to data from the Pan - Sugar Technology Smart Storage and Transportation Platform, as of August 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year, slightly lower than the average level of the past five years. In August, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi decreased by about 140,000 tons compared to July, and the de - stocking speed slowed down significantly [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][16] - **Top 20 Seats' Trading and Position Data**: The total trading volume of the top 20 seats was 187,750 lots, a decrease of 12,543 lots; the total long position was 252,364 lots, a decrease of 178 lots; the total short position was 269,805 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight interest rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [4][54] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's leadership in the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system is mostly framed. The Sino - US trade deadlock may continue, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process, and China may shift its focus from stabilizing growth to adjusting the economic structure. The macro - environment is relatively favorable for risk assets such as stocks and industrial commodities, slightly favorable for precious metals, and unfavorable for government bonds. However, the A - share market has internal adjustment risks, and bonds may have periodic opportunities [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 January - August Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" boom made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened as Trump's reforms caused risks in the US, and overseas assets became more attractive. In early April, Trump's high - tariff announcement triggered a global financial tsunami, followed by a 90 - day suspension. In May, China increased counter - cyclical adjustments, and the global risk appetite gradually recovered from late April to June. Since July, global risk assets have continued to rise, and safe - haven assets have been suppressed [4][6] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's External Demand Shows Resilience but Domestic Demand Weakens Across the Board - In July, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade frictions. However, external demand remained resilient. Investment growth slowed down in multiple sectors, consumption growth declined, industrial output growth weakened, the real - estate market showed mixed signals with high inventory, prices continued to fall, CPI was stable with some fluctuations, PPI continued to decline, new social financing increased, and exports grew due to multiple factors [7][10][19] 3.2.2 New Policies Impact the US Economy into Stagflation - Trump's radical reforms have disrupted the US economic and social order. In July, US employment data deteriorated significantly, the labor participation rate decreased, the unemployment rate increased, inflation showed a complex situation with core CPI rising and some commodity inflation pressures easing, and consumer confidence was affected by trade policies [21][23][26] 3.2.3 China Increases Counter - cyclical Support Policies - In August, China adjusted real - estate policies in core cities, introduced personal and service - sector consumption loan subsidy policies. From January to July, China's fiscal stimulus was strong, but it also led to a rapid increase in the debt - leverage ratio [27][29][34] 3.2.4 The Fed Hints at Restarting the Interest - rate Cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting hinted at a possible interest - rate cut in September. The market has high expectations for rate cuts this year. Trump is trying to increase his influence on the Fed. In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut pace may slow down based on economic fundamentals, but Trump's influence may accelerate it [35][36][37] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury bond yields are expected to be weak in the second half of 2025, with a core range of 1.5 - 2% for the 10 - year bond. US Treasury bond yields are likely to remain high and fluctuate, with a core range of 4 - 5% for the 10 - year bond. The US dollar index is expected to decline first and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB exchange - rate index may be under pressure, and the RMB against the US dollar may depreciate. Global stock markets have risen this year, but the A - share market has internal adjustment risks. Commodities are likely to maintain a high - level and wide - range oscillation [42][46][51] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to August 2025, Chinese stocks, currency, commodities, and bonds had different growth rates. The international trade and monetary system restructuring and domestic liquidity environment have affected asset prices. Based on the current situation, it is recommended to over - allocate interest - rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [52][53][54]

Report Information - Report Type: Precious Metals Monthly Report - Date: September 1, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the hedging demand and reserve diversification demand due to the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. The medium - term bull market is supported by economic growth weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms. In the short term, gold is expected to break through the $3,500/ounce mark and start a new upward trend. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise and may outperform gold. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. Section Summaries 1. 2025 January - August Precious Metals Trend Review - Gold started a new upward trend in late December 2024 due to factors such as festival consumption expectations in China and India,避险需求, and US economic stagflation risks. In early April, the release of Trump's tariff details caused gold to fall to $2,956/ounce, but then it soared to $3,500/ounce due to multiple hedging demands. After that, gold traded in the range of $3,120 - $3,500/ounce. In August, gold rebounded and reached a new closing - price high on August 29. In 2025, London gold and silver rose 29.4% and 33.5% respectively, and Shanghai gold and silver futures indices rose 26.4% and 24.4% respectively [7][10]. - In June, funds flocked to silver, platinum, and palladium. Silver reached a 15 - year high of $39.52/ounce on July 23. The correlations between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real - interest rates, crude oil, and silver have all changed [9][10]. 2. Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 US Employment Market Weakens and Inflation is Moderate - In July 2025, US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000. The unemployment rate rose, but the Sahm indicator was far below the recession threshold. Overall, the employment market deteriorated, giving the Fed a reason to restart interest - rate cuts without causing market panic about a recession. In July, the overall CPI remained at 2.7%, the core CPI rose to 3%, and the PPI increased by 0.9% month - on - month [11][14][15]. - Tariff threats pushed up inflation expectations and depressed consumer confidence. In May, 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations reached their highest levels since 1982, and the consumer confidence index hit a three - year low. After June - July, inflation expectations eased, but they rebounded in August [17][18]. 2.2 The Fed Hints at Restarting Interest - Rate Cuts - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting in August was seen as opening the door for a September interest - rate cut. The market expects an 81.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut on September 17, a 43.5% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut on October 29, and 80.2% and 33.3% probabilities of 50 - basis - point and 75 - basis - point cuts this year respectively [19]. - Trump has been attacking the Fed. He has made personnel changes at the Fed, increasing his influence. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points from January to July 2026, with the federal funds rate dropping to 3 - 3.25% by July 30 [20][21][22]. 2.3 Trade Policy Developments - The high - tariff suspension period between China and the US was extended to November 9. Trump imposed new tariffs on India and threatened to impose tariffs on imported furniture, but the impact of new tariff measures on the market is small [24]. - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, including tariff adjustments, energy and chip purchases, and investment cooperation [25][26]. 2.4 US Dollar Exchange Rate and US Treasury Yields - US Treasury 10 - year yields have fluctuated. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will continue to steepen in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 4 - 5%. The US dollar index is expected to first decline and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is expected to first rise and then fall, with a core range of 7.1 - 7.4 [27][30][31]. 2.5 Gold Supply, Demand, and Market Structure - Gold and silver ETF holdings have rebounded since 2025. As of August 27, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 962.5 tons, and SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,275 tons. In the week of August 19, non - commercial institutions adjusted their positions in gold and silver futures and options, with the gold fund net - long ratio dropping to 31.3% and the silver fund net - long ratio rising to 223.4% [32][34]. 3. Precious Metals Price Outlook - In the long term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the trade and monetary system support the upward movement of the gold price center. In the medium term, economic growth weakness and interest - rate cut expectations keep the gold price strong. In the short term, gold is expected to break through $3,500/ounce and start a new upward trend [35][39].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The international trade currency system restructuring and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market of gold, but the high price also means increased volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6] Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook Intraday Market - Fed Governor Waller supports a September interest rate cut and further cuts in the next six months, and Governor Cook sues Trump. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations push the US dollar index below 98 and London gold above $3400/oz. However, the better - than - expected Q2 GDP revision in the US and stable weekly unemployment data limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The market expects the overall PCE and core PCE in July to increase by 2.6% and 2.9% year - on - year respectively. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500/oz. The easing of international trade and the improvement of financial markets weaken the safe - haven demand for gold, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to support the price. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, and the bottom of the price correction has been rising since the end of June. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions [6] II. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold TD, and gold and silver ETF holdings [8][10] III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Q2 GDP growth rate is 3.3% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, higher than the previous report and economists' expectations. Fed Governor Cook sues Trump for the right to remove her. Governor Waller supports an interest - rate cut next month and further cuts in the next three to six months. The ECB policymakers are divided on inflation expectations in July. The EU proposes to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products in exchange for lower US tariffs on European cars. Russian oil exports to India are expected to increase in September [18][19]

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 1, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Market Performance Market Review - On August 29, the Wind All A index opened with an upward trend, then reversed and declined, and rebounded again at the end of the session, closing up 0.37% with over 60% of stocks falling. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed up 0.74%, 0.53%, and 0.47% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed down 0.11%. The performance of index futures was generally stronger than that of the spot market, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closing up 1.03%, 0.68%, 0.43%, and 0.05% respectively [6]. Market Outlook - External markets: On August 25, Trump stated that China must ensure the supply of rare - earth magnets to the US, or face a 200% tariff, which increased market risk - aversion sentiment. - Domestic situation: The domestic economy is in a weak recovery stage. In July, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points. The overall fundamentals are still under pressure, but market expectations for future economic recovery are positive due to policy support. - Regulatory aspect: Many banks announced strict control of illegal credit funds entering the market, and Guojin Securities raised the margin ratio for margin trading of underlying securities (excluding those on the Beijing Stock Exchange) to 100% on August 26, which cooled market sentiment. - Capital flow: The balance of margin trading has continuously reached new highs, and it is only about 30 billion yuan away from the historical high. There are signs of household deposits flowing into the market, and its sustainability needs to be observed. - Overall view: The US tariff statement and increased regulatory efforts have increased the pressure for the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3,900. However, the market sentiment remains high, and there is still room for further capital inflow. Long positions can be held, and the trading volume and corporate semi - annual reports need to be monitored. In terms of market style, during market fluctuations, large - cap blue - chip stocks may be more favored by funds, and the CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be more dominant in the short term [7][8]. Industry News - On August 29, the Ministry of Finance released the economic operation of state - owned and state - holding enterprises from January to July 2025. From January to July, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 4,731.109 trillion yuan, the same as the previous year. The total profit was 2,478.64 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The tax payable was 3,469.46 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. At the end of July, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.1%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [29].