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建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250908
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:52
Report Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: September 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [4] Core Viewpoints - In August, the spot price of eggs fluctuated at a low level. Due to high supply - side pressure, the peak - season expectation was repeatedly disappointed. Although the spot price rebounded this week, the upside space of the rebound is not optimistic because the supply pressure cannot be resolved in the short term. More and longer - term over - culling is needed to restore the supply - demand balance [8]. - In the futures market, contracts in the fourth quarter fell sharply earlier and stabilized this week, but the rebound was limited due to market pessimism. The 10 - contract, a post - festival contract, is relatively restrained, mainly with a rising basis. In the future, near - month contracts should focus on spot price changes. There may be some upward repair space for the 10 - contract, but long - position operations are difficult. The overall egg market is oversupplied. If the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment, a fundamental inflection point may appear in the later fourth quarter. In the short term, it is recommended to reduce positions and monitor spot changes [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of 10, 11, and 12 egg contracts decreased by 1.72%, 2.24%, and 1.82% respectively. Today, the national egg price rose. The average price in the main production areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, also up 0.07 yuan/jin from yesterday [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term operation suggests reducing positions and paying attention to spot price changes. Although the 10 - contract may have some upward repair space, long - position operations are difficult [8]. 2. Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.0% [9]. - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks by sample enterprises in August was about 39.81 million, slightly less than that in July and significantly less than that in the same period in 2024. The culling volume has gradually increased since August, and the culling age has advanced [9][10].
建信期货豆粕日报-20250908
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:46
Industry Information - The industry under research is the soybean meal industry [1] - The report date is September 8, 2025 [2] - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The settlement prices, opening prices, highs, lows, closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2609, and 2611 are presented. For example, the soybean meal 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3063, an opening price of 3043, a high of 3072, a low of 3042, a closing price of 3067, a change of 4, and a change percentage of 0.13%. Its trading volume was 767,878, and the open interest was 1,996,647 with a decrease of 46,634 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1030 cents. The external environment has stabilized this week, with limited fundamental information interference. The weather conditions for the new US soybean crop have worsened, showing dry conditions in mid - to late August. The current weather pattern is similar to last year's, where the early growth period had good weather, and the USDA adjusted the yield per unit area to a high level in August. However, the weather turned dry starting in August. There is a possibility that the final excellent - good rate this year may be significantly lower than the August forecast, but the September report is less likely to change, and more adjustments to the yield per unit area can be expected in the October report [6] - **Market Focus**: The recent unfavorable weather has not brought significant bullish sentiment to CBOT soybeans. Instead, the market is mainly focused on the pessimistic outlook for new - season exports. As the US soybean harvest approaches, China has not started purchasing US soybeans, increasing the pressure on US soybeans. Although China may stop purchasing US soybeans, due to the significant reduction in planting area and the expected decrease in yield per unit area, the pressure on ending stocks is not as great as last year. Overall, the CBOT price remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the possibility of being weak first and then strong in the medium term [6] - **Domestic Situation**: China's soybean meal market is in a fundamental situation of wide current supply and tight future expectations. In the medium term, with a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, China will mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter to replace US soybeans, supplemented by some Argentine soybeans. However, there may still be a small import gap, which may be filled by state - reserve auctions. Due to recent state - reserve soybean auctions and the weakening of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal lacks upward momentum. However, the problem of low imported soybean volume may gradually emerge in the fourth quarter after the National Day. Weather issues also need to be monitored in the October USDA report. After short - term oscillations, the medium - term outlook for soybean meal is bullish after corrections [6] Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, down from 69% the previous week, and the same as the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 94%, up from 89% the previous week, higher than 93% in the same period last year, and in line with the five - year average. The defoliation rate was 11%, up from 4% the previous week, slightly lower than 12% in the same period last year, and slightly higher than the five - year average of 10% [7] - **USDA Export Inspection Report**: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, meeting expectations. The previous market forecast was between 200,000 - 500,000 tons, and the revised figure from the previous week was 393,189 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has reached 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period last year [15] - **USDA Monthly Crushing**: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), up from 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [15]
建信期货锌期货日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:35
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, and Yu Feifei [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Shanghai zinc led the decline in non - ferrous metals. The main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%. It showed increased volume and open interest, with open interest increasing by 14,140 lots to 118,873 lots. The net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in total open interest increased by 6,418 lots. The fundamentals changed little, with zinc ore processing fees rising continuously and zinc ingot production remaining at a high level. The demand side was supported by policies but was weak in the short term. Production restrictions in North China suppressed galvanized consumption. The pressure of supply - demand surplus was reflected in inventory. Social inventory increased by 0.26 million tons to 14.89 million tons on Thursday. LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 54,750 tons, the lowest level since May 2023, with a 0 - 3 spread of B18.78. Despite the macro - level interest rate cut expectation and continuous de - stocking at LME, the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc could not resonate. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term and may test the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,100 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 21,970 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan or 0.79%, with an open interest of 8,355 lots, down 1,255 lots; for SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,240 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%, with an open interest of 118,873 lots, up 14,140 lots; for SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,280 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,330 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,010 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with an open interest of 70,099 lots, up 3,819 lots [7] 2. Industry News - On September 4, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was 22,120 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 21,910 - 22,110 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par to the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was about 21,980 - 22,170 yuan/ton. Regular brands were quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to Shanghai spot. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery, Hualian/Jiulong was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton for delivery, and Anning was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 21,930 - 22,170 yuan/ton, that of Zijin was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,880 - 22,090 yuan/ton. Huludao was quoted at 22,570 yuan/ton. Ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Zijin was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Tianjin market was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton to Shanghai market [8] - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,910 - 22,155 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at par to Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the first period, holders quoted a discount of 90 - 45 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, Feilong, and Lanxing; in the second period, the discount was 90 - 55 yuan/ton [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in million tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources including Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][11][12]
建信期货铝日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:32
Report Summary 1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Aluminum Daily Report - **Date**: September 5, 2025 - **Research Team**: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [1][2][3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, Shanghai aluminum prices continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 20,605, a 0.77% drop from the previous day. The 09 - 10 spread changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts still showed a contango structure. The import window remained closed, with a spot import loss of - 1,320 yuan/ton [7]. - The decline in futures prices boosted market activity, with an increase in downstream rigid - demand purchases. The spot premium and discount both improved. The cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the AD - AL negative spread at - 385. With the approaching traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, which increased industry costs, the cast aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be maintained [7]. - The weak fundamentals of alumina pushed its price below the 3,000 mark, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downside space is limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although the peak season is approaching, the consumption side has only marginally improved, and inventories have not been effectively depleted and are still accumulating. Overall, the weakening macro - environment and the fact that the aluminum fundamentals have not emerged from the off - season have put pressure on aluminum prices to decline again. Future attention should be paid to the performance of the consumption side during the peak season to see if it can break through the upper space, and the previous high resistance remains strong [7]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices declined, and the market activity recovered. The cast aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen, and the alumina price is weak. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is accumulating, and the future trend depends on the peak - season consumption [7]. 4.2 Industry News - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in the photovoltaic and other fields, guide the orderly layout of industries, and strengthen product quality management [8]. - The Indian federal environment ministry has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project, with an expected reserve of 311 million tons, faces issues such as community consent, ecological risks, and land - use problems. It will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou Dataoyuan bauxite mine has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].
建信期货镍日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 4, the Shanghai nickel price continued to decline, with the main contract closing down 0.53% to 120,850 yuan/ton. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped by 50 to 2,050, and the premium/discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -200 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 1 to 945 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,870 yuan/ton [8]. - Affected by events such as Indonesia's adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and demonstrations, the decline of nickel ore is limited, and support is emerging. NPI remains strong under cost support and demand recovery expectations, but the improvement space for stainless - steel terminals is limited, so the subsequent upward space is restricted. The price of nickel sulfate remains strong, but the demand for new - energy ternary batteries is mediocre, and the expected increase is limited [8]. - Overall, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. The nickel price continues to face pressure on the upside, and it is also difficult to break downward due to cost support. Short - selling at low levels has a relatively low cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to adopt a trading - range strategy, with the main operating range of the index referring to 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The nickel price on September 4 showed a downward trend, along with changes in the premiums and discounts of different nickel products and the prices of related nickel - containing products. The report analyzes the supply and demand situation of different nickel - related products and gives an overall judgment on the nickel market, suggesting a trading - range strategy [8]. 2. Industry News - Tata Steel Mining's MD Pankaj K. Satija said India can relieve the supply shortage of key minerals like nickel through three paths: enhancing local mining and processing, recovering by - products from existing mining, and promoting "urban mining". India launched the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM) in January this year, with a total budget of 163 billion rupees and plans to attract 180 billion rupees of state - owned enterprise investment to reduce dependence on Chinese supply [9]. - Indonesia's forest law - enforcement working group will conduct a centralized crackdown on illegal nickel mines. The action aims to regain state control of forests, and companies need to return illegal profits. Some cases may enter criminal investigations, and the seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state - owned enterprise department [10]. - FPX Nickel announced its participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and the United Nations Global Compact, which reflects its commitment to environmental protection, transparency, and responsibility [10].
碳酸锂期货日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rose as the market speculated on the change of mine types in Yichun. However, in the afternoon, the increase narrowed due to the broader decline in the A - share market. With the spot price remaining higher than the futures price, stronger price - holding at the mine end, the arrival of the peak demand season, and the uncertainty of the mine type change in Yichun, lithium prices are expected to stop falling and rebound [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures increased, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 74,440. The spot price dropped by 900 to 75,000, the Australian ore price remained flat at 850, and the lithium mica ore price dropped by 20 to 1,865. The production losses of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica expanded to 1,567 and 6,991 respectively [10] 3.2 Industry News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) responded to the policy investigation on the compliance of salt - lake lithium extraction mining rights in Qinghai, stating that its mining business is fully compliant and production is stable [13] - Ascend Elements announced the first commercial production of black recycled lithium carbonate with a purity of over 99% at its facility in Georgia. The company plans to expand the annual production of recycled lithium carbonate in the US and Europe to over 15,000 tons by 2027 [13]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:23
Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View - The SCFIS dropped below 1800 points in the current week, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline. Online quotes for the first half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $2000 per 40 - foot container. The price of the European route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, putting significant pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. The oversold rebound on Tuesday might be boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But since the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded that of last year and the overall shipping capacity has actually increased, the boosting effect may not be strong enough. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has fallen below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks. Online quotes in early September have been further reduced. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a smooth decline in the off - season, which puts pressure on the 10 - contract. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and the oversold rebound on Tuesday may be due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited. The 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, and there may be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 25th to August 29th, the overall China export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing divergent trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. The European route's market sentiment was weak, with the freight rate falling. The Mediterranean route followed the European route, with the freight rate dropping. The North American route's freight rate rebounded. There were also geopolitical events in the Middle East and the US's statement on the Palestinian issue [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route decreased from 1990.2 on August 25th to 1773.6 on September 1st, a decrease of 10.9%. The index for the US - West route decreased from 1041.38 to 1013.9, a decrease of 2.6% [12]. 3.2 Futures Market for Container Shipping Index (European Route) - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 4th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6].
建信期货国债日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:19
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies. The stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but incremental positive factors are still limited. The bond market has become less sensitive to the stock market since late August. Considering that the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the pressure on the bond market from the stock market may further ease. Historically, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019 due to factors like government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies may still be difficult to implement. Overall, the pressure on the bond market will ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough point, and investors may need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's continued adjustment boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank may have also boosted the expectation of treasury bond trading. Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yields of most major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with the increase in the medium - and long - term mostly within 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.7525%, up 0.5bp. At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the money market was stable. There were 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index remained stable, and most short - term capital interest rates rose slightly [8][9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - The second group - leader meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank was held to discuss issues such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, central bank treasury bond trading operations, and improving the offshore RMB treasury bond issuance mechanism. - The China - Shanghai Cooperation Organization Digital Economy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Tianjin, aiming to deepen international cooperation in the digital economy field between China and SCO countries. - Shanghai's first property market optimization policy "Shanghai Six Measures" was introduced, and its positive effects have been initially shown, with increased trading volume in both new and second - hand housing markets [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 4, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. were provided [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on the central bank's reverse repurchase operations, inter - bank capital sentiment index, and short - and medium - long - term capital interest rates was presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [35].
建信期货铜期货日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:19
1. Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Core View - With fundamental support, copper prices should mainly be bought on dips [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated downward, with total positions decreasing and the near - month spread turning to back. The sentiment became more cautious. A - share continuous decline and the upcoming US non - farm payroll data pressured copper prices [10] - Spot copper dropped 330 to 80190, and the premium fell 10 to 180. Imported copper arrivals suppressed the premium. Social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons this week, mainly due to a 1.02 - million - ton increase in Shanghai caused by large - scale imported arrivals [10] - As the LME 0 - 3 contango structure narrowed, spot imports turned to a small loss of 50 yuan/ton, but the premiums for warehouse receipts and bills of lading continued to rise to 57 and 60 US dollars/ton respectively, indicating strong demand for imported copper [10] - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, showing an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in overseas inventory. The expected centralized production cuts by smelters in September have not been reflected in domestic social inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory destocking progress [10] 3.2 Industry News - Freeport - McMoRan is advancing three expansion projects (two in the US and one in Chile) and researching a technological innovation to boost annual production. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand a copper mine in Arizona, aiming to double the concentrator's capacity and increase copper and molybdenum production. The project is expected to make an investment decision by the end of 2025 and start production in 2029. It may also increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile [11] - In September, China's refined copper market saw a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predicted a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in China's refined copper production this month, the first decline in September since 2016. The new tax policy reduced scrap copper processing profits, weakening the incentive to smelt scrap copper into anode copper. Additionally, smelters entered the peak equipment maintenance period in September, with the number of shut - down smelters increasing from three to five. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9%, magnifying the supply contraction effect. This production cut coincides with the peak copper consumption season [11][12]
建信期货股指日评-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 02:33
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review - Wanquan A Index: Fell for three consecutive trading days, with today's decline further expanding. It opened slightly higher and then oscillated lower. Sectors such as computing power, CPO, and military industry accelerated their decline as funds took profits. In the afternoon, sectors such as banks and securities companies showed abnormal movements, driving a slight recovery in the index at the end of the session. The index closed down 2.02%, with more than 50% of stocks falling [6]. - Index Spot: CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 2.12%, 1.71%, 2.48%, and 2.30% respectively [6]. - Index Futures: IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed down 1.82%, 1.67%, 2.09%, and 1.95% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price), performing stronger than the spot market overall [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - External Market: Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated their views on interest rate cuts, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in September. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation and the expectation of consecutive rate cuts in the fourth quarter [8]. - Domestic Market: Economic data in July showed a weakening on both the supply and demand sides. Currently, the economic fundamentals are under pressure, but the expectation of future recovery under the "anti - involution" policy remains strong [8]. - Liquidity: The margin trading balance rebounded slightly yesterday and remains at a historical high. Observe the subsequent changes in margin trading funds [8]. - Long - term: Stocks are still favored in the context of the concepts of "East rising, West falling" and "Technology narrative" [8]. - Short - term: After the expectation on September 3 was fulfilled, market volatility increased, and the market is currently in an oscillating correction trend. The CSI 300 (IF) and SSE 50 (IH) contracts may perform relatively better. One can try to go long on IF and short on IM to resist market corrections [8]. Group 4: Industry News - Trump asked the US Supreme Court to uphold his global tariff policy and seek a review of the case. The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to expedite the hearing process and hold a debate in early November [32]. - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 4 at a fixed interest rate through quantity bidding, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 212.6 billion yuan. Wind data showed that 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [32].