Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - East China tertiary rapeseed oil basis prices vary by month: August OI2601+110, September - October OI2601+200, August - September OI601+160 (non - GMO), and East China first - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2601+180. - East China market soybean oil basis prices also vary: Spot Y2601+80, September Y2601+100, October - November Y2601+160, October - January Y2601+210. - Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil is 01 - 80 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: - Palm oil continues to lead the rise. It has a short - term adjustment need according to technical analysis but is considered bullish in the medium term. The export data is positive for the market, with the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 increasing by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and Indian import demand may rebound in August. - For rapeseed oil, due to policy - influenced supply reduction, the strategy is to go long until the supply shortage situation is significantly improved. Sporadic purchases cannot fully make up for the supply gap from Canada. - For soybean oil, it is bullish in the long - term due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, possible reduction in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand recovery. It may have short - term corrections [7] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil export data from August 1 - 15: ITS reported an export volume of 724,191 tons, a 16.5% increase from July 1 - 15; AmSpec reported 696,425 tons, a 21.3% increase. Exports to China decreased by 2.83 million tons to 0.88 million tons compared to the same period last month. - CONAB increased the forecast of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 1.6965 billion tons, slightly higher than last month's prediction. The 2025 export volume forecast is 1.0625 billion tons, and the ending inventory is expected to be 3.941 million tons, higher than last month [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include spot prices of East China tertiary rapeseed oil, East China quaternary soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil; basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads; and exchange rates of US dollar to RMB and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][16][18][20][25][26]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Key Points 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current egg market is under significant supply pressure, with the spot price in the peak season starting late and experiencing a large - scale correction. The near - month futures contracts are under downward pressure, and the overall sentiment in the futures market is extremely low. The large - scale decline in the near - month 09 contract is due to the weak spot market and the extrusion of the premium. In the short term, the near - month contracts may still be bearish, and the opportunity for band long positions faces greater risks. If the low egg price is reflected in the subsequent replenishment data, the fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The 09 contract of eggs decreased by 0.84%, the 2510 contract increased by 0.16%, and the 2511 contract decreased by 0.45%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [7] - **Analysis**: The peak season of egg prices started late this year, and the market pressure emerged in late July. The current correction is larger than in previous years, indicating significant supply pressure. The continuous decline of the near - month contracts is due to the loosening of the peak - season price increase logic. The 09 contract has reached a record low, and the futures market sentiment is extremely low. In the future, it is necessary to focus on whether the increase in recent culling can drive up the spot price. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be bearish, and the opportunity for band long positions has high risks. The fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment [8] 3.2 Industry News - **In - laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, showing an upward trend for 7 consecutive months [9] - **Chick Hatchlings**: The monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, a decrease compared with June and the same period in 2024. It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years. The low breeding profit in the past two months has begun to change farmers' mentality of expanding production capacity, and the year - on - year decrease in the replenishment volume in July is the first this year [9][10] - **Chicken Culling**: In the first three weeks as of August 14, the national chicken culling volume showed a downward trend, and the decline rate was higher than the seasonal average. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from last week and 1 day later than last month [10] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the egg 09 - 10 contracts, the average price in the main producing areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, the monthly inventory of in - laying hens in China, and the egg - chicken breeding profit, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [12][13][17]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 15, rebar and hot-rolled coil futures contracts 2510 explored lower and then rebounded. The steel futures are expected to experience a phased decline under pressure after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, with a relatively small callback space but a potentially longer callback time compared to late July and early August, and are currently treated with a weakening oscillation trend [7][11] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On August 15, most rebar spot markets and some hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price declines. The prices of rebar in Chongqing, Xi'an, Changchun, Harbin, Kunming, and Shenyang dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, while those in Shanghai, Lanzhou, and Urumqi remained stable, and other major rebar markets saw price drops of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coils in Wuxi, Jinan, Changsha, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2510 contract continued to decline after a dead cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract also showed a dead cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2510 contracts have been expanding for three consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to limit or halt production from August 16 to September 3 based on weather conditions. On August 12, some coking enterprises in Shandong received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions, requiring coking enterprises to limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16 to early September. - Fundamentals: In the short term, the reduction in steel mill production has been disproven. The weekly output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products has accelerated, and their weekly apparent demand has continued to decline to a new low since early March. - Raw material market: Port iron ore inventories have increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills have returned to 21 days. The output of independent coking enterprises continues to rise, continuing the steady resumption of production rhythm since mid-July. The sixth round of price increases for coke spot has been implemented, and profits have turned positive after 12 weeks. The tender price of Mongolian coal has declined, and the Dalian Commodity Exchange has taken cooling measures for coking coal futures again. - Overall: It is expected that after the coking coal and coke futures reach their second peak, the steel futures may experience a phased decline under pressure due to the less-than-expected improvement in fundamentals. Currently, the callback space seems relatively small, but the callback time is expected to be longer than that at the end of July and early August, and it is temporarily treated as a weakening oscillation trend [10][11] 2. Industry News - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%. At the end of July, the floor area of commercial housing for sale was 764.86 million square meters, a decrease of 4.62 million square meters compared to the end of June. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 572.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since December last year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in July were 387.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, matching the previous low set in December last year. From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new low since October 2020 [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%; pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. From January to July, China's crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [12] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in July, the floor area of newly built commercial housing in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing remained flat, Shanghai increased by 0.3%, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.6% respectively. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in second - tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. The floor area of newly built commercial housing in third - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the same decline as the previous month. In July, the floor area of second - hand housing in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.1%, 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.9% respectively. The floor area of second - hand housing in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [13] - The People's Bank of China announced on August 14 that to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on August 15 through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method for a term of 6 months (182 days). There were 400 billion yuan of 3 - month and 50 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases maturing in the same month. After the People's Bank of China conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase on August 8 and will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase on the 15th, as of the 15th, the People's Bank of China has conducted an excess renewal of outright reverse repurchases totaling 300 billion yuan in August. Wang Qing, the chief macro - analyst at Orient Jincheng, believes that the People's Bank of China's outright reverse repurchase operation helps to inject medium - term liquidity and signals the continuous intensification of quantitative monetary policy tools [13] - China Iron and Steel Association data shows that in early August, the social inventory of the five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons, or 2.3%; an increase of 1.44 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.9%; and a decrease of 2.18 million tons compared to the same period last year, or 21.4% [13] - According to China Iron and Steel Association statistics, in early August, key steel enterprises produced a total of 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. In early August, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons compared to the previous ten - day period, or 2.0%; an increase of 2.7 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, or 21.8%; basically the same as the same ten - day period last month; a decrease of 830,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period last year, or 5.2%; and a decrease of 980,000 tons compared to the same ten - day period the year before last, or 6.1% [13] - As of August 15, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.67 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to the same period last week, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the same period last month, and an increase of 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year [13] - Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. disclosed its semi - annual report for 2025. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 721 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.65%, while the total profit decreased by 36.19% year - on - year to 135 million yuan [13] - On August 13, 2025, the Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an announcement, making a positive final ruling on the fourth sunset review of anti - dumping duties on carbon steel pipe fittings originating from China, deciding to continue to impose an anti - dumping duty of $1.05 per kilogram on the涉案 products. The measure has been in effect since August 5, 2024, for a period of five years. The涉案 products are carbon steel pipe fittings with an outer diameter of 0.5 - 16 inches (inclusive), including elbows, tees, reducers, and caps, covering products under the TIGIE tariff number 7307.93.01 [13][14] - On August 13, 2025, the Japanese Ministry of Finance issued an announcement, deciding to initiate an anti - dumping investigation into hot - dipped galvanized steel strips and sheets originating from China and South Korea at the request of Japanese domestic manufacturers on April 28, 2025 [14] - The European Union recently stated that it hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month to continue to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Russia - Ukraine conflict. EU Commission spokesperson Arianna Podesta detailed the timeline for the next round of measures against Russia at a daily press conference in Brussels on Thursday but did not disclose the specific content of the plan. The EU approved a series of measures in July [14] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and the October contracts [15][17][21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: TA2509 closed at 4,676 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 232,162 and a decrease of 73,887; TA2601 closed at 4,710 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 664,171 and a decrease of 21,993. The PTA main futures TA2601 closed at 4,716 yuan/ton on the 15th, up 28 yuan/ton, or 0.60%, with a settlement price of 4,708 yuan/ton and a daily position reduction of 21,993 lots [6] - Market Outlook: The intraday crude oil market fluctuated and declined, which was negative for the PTA market sentiment. The PTA supply was sufficient, and the downstream polyester sales were dull. It was estimated that the PTA market would decline slightly [6] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil: After Trump warned that the failure of negotiations with Putin on the Ukraine issue would bring "serious consequences," Brent crude oil futures rose to a one - week high. On Thursday (August 14), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, up $1.31, or 2.09%, with a trading range of $62.58 - $64.10; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.84 per barrel, up $1.21, or 1.84%, with a trading range of $65.55 - $66.99 [7] - PX: The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $827 - $829 per ton, up $4 per ton from the previous trading day; the price of PX in the South Korean market was estimated at $807 - $809 per ton, up $4 per ton from the previous trading day. The domestic PX was still in a tight - balance pattern, and the trading atmosphere was cautious as the port - arrival period approached. There was no transaction reported during the day [7] - PTA: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,659 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was based on the futures 2509 at a discount of 13 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Charts: The report includes charts such as PTA futures price summary, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, upstream raw material spot price, PX price, MEG price, PTA processing margin, TA5 - 9 spread, PTA warehouse receipt quantity, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product price, and PTA downstream product inventory [11][13][17]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: EG2509 closed at 4369 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; EG2601 closed at 4412 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The trading volume of EG2509 was 71,884 lots, and the open interest was 148,452 lots, a decrease of 10,835 lots. The open interest of EG2601 was 60,953 lots, an increase of 11,568 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol and its downstream polyester devices has not changed substantially, but the macro - market still has certain expectations for policy. It is expected that ethylene glycol may maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend [7] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil: After Trump warned of "serious consequences" if negotiations with Putin on the Ukraine issue failed, Brent crude futures rose to a one - week high. On August 14, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $63.96 per barrel, up $1.31 or 2.09%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $66.84 per barrel, up $1.21 or 1.84% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In Zhangjiagang, the spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol this week was 4456 - 4457 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The mainstream transaction price was 4450 - 4465 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In Dongguan, the negotiation range was 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The ethylene glycol market was weak and the trading volume was average [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Charts: Include charts of MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory [10][15][16][18] - Data Source: Wind, Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][11][12]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Due to the US July PPI exceeding market expectations and officials' statements, market expectations for a 50BP Fed rate cut in September have cooled. London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz. Trump's new policies boost gold's safe - haven demand. Gold volatility is rising, and the medium - term upward trend remains good. It may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz. Uncertainty in international trade has decreased, but currency system restructuring and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. Speculative funds entered the silver and platinum markets in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86. The long - term bull market in gold is supported by currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market by economic weakness and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also mean high volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz. Central bank easing may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling [5]. Group 4: Section Summaries Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz due to PPI data and officials' statements. Trump's policies boost gold's safe - haven demand [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.63, down 0.36%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9222, down 0.89%; Gold T + D closed at 773.09, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9188, down 0.93% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz since late April. International trade uncertainty has decreased, but currency system restructuring and rate - cut expectations support the price. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86 [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, dispelling expectations of a 50BP rate cut in September [17]. - US Treasury Secretary said conditions are favorable for a 25BP rate cut first and then acceleration. Some Fed officials said a 50BP rate cut in September does not match the current economic situation [17]. - Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, and Putin praised US efforts and proposed a nuclear arms control agreement [17]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2024 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Soda ash supply is in excess and inventory is accumulating, with weak demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to macro - changes and capacity elimination policies [8]. - Glass futures' main contract is expected to decline first and then oscillate upward. Mid - term inventory restricts price rebound in the short term, while policies are expected to benefit demand in the long - term [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On August 14, the main futures SA601 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 1400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton with a 0.35% decline and an increase of 64,318 lots in positions [8]. - Recently, maintenance volume is small, loss volume is down, and production has reached a high level. Weekly production increased to 761,300 tons, a 2.24% week - on - week increase. Factory inventory rose to 1.8938 million tons, a 1.54% week - on - week increase. Terminal demand for photovoltaic glass daily melting volume dropped to 87,000 tons, and float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged [8]. Glass - As of August 8, 2025, the national float glass daily melting volume was 159,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 79.78%, a new high this year. If the price falls below 1100 yuan/ton, the cold - repair scale may expand [9]. - The order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.55 days, a 1.55% year - on - year decrease. The increase in enterprise inventory days was higher than that of orders. The total glass inventory was about 59.499 million heavy boxes, a 3.87% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory days were 25.5 days, with a slowdown in inventory removal [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides figures on soda ash and glass active contract price trends, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [11][14][18]

General Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increasing decline rate. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The 10 - contract is currently deeply discounted, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. This week, the SCFIS further declined with a larger decline rate. Main airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rate may be even lower in the off - season. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short it on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to August 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with the lack of growth momentum in transport demand. Most route freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9]. - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner in the first 7 months of 2025, with a trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase year - on - year, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - The supply - demand relationship in the shipping market this week was weak, and the freight rates on European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. On August 8th, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period; the freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2318 US dollars/TEU, a 0.6% decline [10]. - The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked an Israeli airport and "sanctioned" 64 shipping companies, which may disrupt shipping routes and affect freight rates [10]. - The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to August 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 14th shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract decreased by 2.4, a 0.18% decline, with a trading volume of 32077 and an open interest of 56698 [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged due to the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and high tariff uncertainty. Short - term, the bond market, especially long - term varieties, is under pressure as tariff uncertainties are settled, risk - aversion sentiment cools, and commodities and the stock market strengthen. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on short - term and shorting long - term bonds. Also, pay attention to the marginal changes in July economic data [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On August 14, weak financial data and the stock market's performance had limited impact on the bond market. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield up 1.4bp to 1.734%. The central bank conducted net repurchase, resulting in a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan. Inter - bank funds were loose, short - term fund rates changed slightly, and medium - long - term funds were stable [8][9][10] - **Conclusion and Suggestions**: Long - term, the bullish foundation remains. Short - term, long - term bond varieties are under pressure. Short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may be more resilient. Consider a strategy of going long on short - term and shorting long - term bonds. Pay attention to July economic data after the central bank's 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation [11][12] 2. Industry News - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright repurchase operation on August 15. From January to July, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Two discount policies were detailed, and post - policy evaluations will be carried out. 188 billion yuan in investment subsidies for equipment upgrades supported by ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment. There are international news about US - Russia cooperation proposals, potential US sanctions on Russia, and a call for the Fed to cut interest rates [13][14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures contracts [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Involves data on SHIBOR, inter - bank repurchase rates, etc. [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Contains data on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility. It is expected that London gold will run in the range in the short - term and then break through. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - term traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. - In the short - term, due to factors such as inflation data and Fed officials' attitudes, gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: In July, US overall CPI was lower than expected, but core CPI was higher. The US Treasury Secretary called for a 50BP rate cut in September. The Fed's rate - cut expectation pushed the dollar index down to around 97.6 and London gold rebounded to $3375 per ounce. However, two Fed officials' cautious attitudes led to a gold price correction. Trump's new policy boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility increased, and it's recommended to trade with a long - term view and medium - low positions. This week, focus on the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. - **Domestic Market Data**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 780.46, up 0.13%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9305, down 0.13%; Gold T+D closed at 775.06, up 0.05%; Silver T+D closed at 9270, down 0.09% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks supported it. Fed's rate - cut expectation rose due to the nomination of new Fed governors and a weak employment market. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - silver ratio in London stabilized after falling to 86. It's expected that London gold will continue to run in the range in the short - term [5]. 3.2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides six charts including Shanghai precious metals futures indices, London precious metals spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold TD, precious metals ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump threatened Putin over the Ukraine issue and may hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit. The US Treasury Secretary said sanctions might increase if the US - Russia summit goes badly and called on Europe to impose sanctions [8]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: After US July inflation data, the market thought the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September was 99.9%. The Treasury Secretary thought a 50BP cut was possible, and Trump was narrowing down the candidates for the next Fed Chair [8]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was worried about inflation and labor market assumptions, and needed multiple months of good inflation data to support rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic thought the job market was close to full - employment, and the Fed should avoid policy volatility [9]. - **Economic Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary said the 15% revenue - handing - over agreement for semiconductor sales to China might expand to other industries and denied national security concerns [9].