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镍日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 02:00
Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: August 5, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation. After the cooling of macro sentiment, nickel prices will return to the oversupply trading logic and continue to test cost support. Although nickel prices may have a phased rebound under emotional support, the upside is still under pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 4th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. The main contract opened lower and then continued to rise, closing at 120,630, up 0.54%. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,996 to 196,963 lots [7]. - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the price has further downward pressure, weakening the support at the ore end. In the NPI sector, the short - term price of nickel ore is still high, and most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. Although the nickel - iron price has recovered recently, the sustainability is not strong. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, and the acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. It is expected that the NPI price will mainly operate at the bottom [7]. - The nickel - salt price has recovered due to the rigid replenishment of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants, but the recovery space may be limited. The macro has not yet substantially boosted demand, and the nickel industry does not directly benefit from the anti - involution logic. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are production - cut policies in the stainless - steel industry. The nickel market is difficult to have substantial improvement in the short term [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter in Central Sulawesi. The acquisition plan is still in the evaluation stage, and the state - owned mining holding company Mind ID is likely to be the main partner. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of more than $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10]. - Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its net - zero emissions and renewable - energy consumption goals [10].
建信期货股指日评-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:59
Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping) [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On August 4, the Wind All A index opened lower and then fluctuated upward, closing up 0.76%, with more than 3,500 stocks falling. [6] - In terms of index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively, with small and medium - cap stocks performing better. [6] - Index futures performed stronger than spot. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed up 0.58%, 0.58%, 1.06%, and 1.53% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price). [6] 1.2 Future Outlook - In the external market, the US non - farm payrolls in July were 73,000, significantly lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by a total of 258,000, indicating a weakening US labor market, which may boost the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. [8] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly announced on August 1 that starting from August 8, value - added tax will be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. Under the stock - bond seesaw, it is more beneficial to the equity market, especially the dividend sector. [8] - In terms of funds, the trading volume of A - shares shrank today. After the Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, it attacked the 3,600 - point mark again. Long - position holders can consider adding positions on dips. [8] - In terms of market style, the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged. The SSE 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform relatively better. [8] 2. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and turnover statistics of major ETFs, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [9][14][16][18][21] 3. Industry News - No industry news is provided in the report. [31]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market had a significant decline in multiple contracts. The PS2509 contract closed at 49,130 yuan/ton, with a decline of 7.81%. Its trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots. In July, polysilicon supply will increase to 107,600 tons, and downstream cell production scheduling is around 50GW. The supply - demand relationship maintains a loose balance without de - stocking drivers. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) confirms the weak demand expectation in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Affected by the policy, the previous trends of related varieties have started to diverge. Polysilicon is supported by the comprehensive cost and spot price, so although the price weakens during trading, the decline space is limited. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate in a wide range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon PS2509 contract closed at 49,130 yuan/ton, down 7.81%. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots [4]. - Future Outlook: In July, polysilicon supply will reach 107,600 tons, and downstream cell production scheduling is about 50GW. The supply - demand is in a loose balance. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) indicates weak demand in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Polysilicon is supported by cost and spot price, and will mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 4, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,200 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) as the main incremental markets for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installation volume from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installation volume in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].
建信期货MEG日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:49
Report Information - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Report Type: MEG Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is weak, and with the weakening of macro - positive support, the short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to continue its weak trend [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 4th, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract 2509 was 4402 yuan/ton, the highest was 4402 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4361 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 4375 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4389 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 128,439 lots, and the open interest was 232,536 lots. The EG2509 contract closed at 4389 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan, with an open interest of 232,536 lots, a decrease of 6879 lots; the EG2601 contract closed at 4417 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, with an open interest of 42,314 lots, an increase of 4673 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Crude Oil: Due to concerns that OPEC and its eight - nation production - limiting alliance may further increase crude oil production in September, international oil prices fell nearly 3%. However, due to Trump's erratic tariff threats and sanctions against Russia and its trading partners, European and American crude oil futures rose about 3% net. On August 1st, the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $67.33 per barrel, a decrease of $1.93 from the previous trading day, a decline of 2.79%, with a trading range of $67.05 - $69.58; the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.67 per barrel, a decrease of $2.03 from the previous trading day, a decline of 2.83%, with a trading range of $69.40 - $72.00 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation this week was 4467 - 4468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The negotiation for next - week's spot was 4468 - 4469 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for late August was 4468 - 4469 yuan/ton. The current - week spot basis was at a premium of 78 - 79 yuan/ton compared with EG2509, next - week's spot basis was at a premium of 79 - 80 yuan/ton compared with EG2509, and the late - August basis was at a premium of 79 - 80 yuan/ton compared with EG2509. The negotiation range in the Fujian ethylene glycol market was 4300 - 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The short - term trading atmosphere in the ethylene glycol market has improved, and the price in the Fujian ethylene glycol market remains stable for the time being [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main - contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:49
Report Date - The report date is August 05, 2025 [2] Research Team - The research team includes Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2509 was 8360 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.46%. The trading volume was 187,014 lots, and the open interest was 176,164 lots, with a net decrease of 18,176 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the capacity to increase production of silicone was limited in the short term [4] - After the policy - driven market sentiment cooled down, the previous trends of the same - sector varieties began to diverge. There was no clear policy for industrial silicon, and the spot price began to weaken. The hourly chart broke through the support level, forming a short - term bearish trend and reaching a low of 8225 yuan/ton. It is expected to be mainly in a weak short - term oscillation [4] Market News - On August 04, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,312 lots, a net decrease of 204 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]
建信期货原油日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:49
Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - OPEC+ announced an increase of 550,000 barrels per day, and the significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally neutral, with limited production growth in OPEC+ and the US, and demand slightly underperforming expectations during the peak season [6]. - In the medium term, as demand moves into the off - season, oil prices may fall again. Due to the fermentation of negative macro - sentiment, it is advisable to consider pre - arranging short positions after a rebound [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI closed at $67.26 per barrel, down 2.89%; Brent closed at $69.52 per barrel, down 3.04%; SC closed at 514.3 yuan per barrel, down 2.61%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 33.17 million hands, 41.80 million hands, and 14.58 million hands respectively [6]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase and US non - farm payroll data revision affected prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are neutral, and oil prices are driven by the macro - level and geopolitical factors. In the medium term, demand will enter the off - season [6][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider pre - arranging short positions after a rebound due to negative macro - sentiment [7]. 2. Industry News - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, completing the supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule. Chevron expects Venezuelan oil to enter the market. Goldman Sachs maintains the 2026 Brent crude price forecast at $56 per barrel. There is a dispute between the US and India over Indian oil purchases from Russia [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent prices, and US crude oil production growth rate, with data sources including Wind, CFTC, EIA, and Bloomberg [10][13][16]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:49
Report Overview - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline over the weekend, and the market sentiment may remain sluggish in the short term, squeezing the premium of futures. Although there is a seasonal adjustment in the spot market, according to historical patterns, the spot price is expected to rise at least once in August, with the expected target price adjusted down to 3.6 - 3.8 yuan per catty. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term, and the contracts for the fourth quarter are currently at a historically low valuation, with potential for an upward movement during the second wave of the peak - season price increase, but timing is crucial, and investors should mainly adopt a band - trading strategy [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts generally declined. The 2508 contract closed at 3075, down 196 or 5.99% from the previous settlement; the 2509 contract closed at 3360, down 141 or 4.03%; the 2510 contract closed at 3243, down 51 or 1.55%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.98 yuan per catty, down 0.17 yuan from the previous day, and in the main consuming areas was 3.31 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. For the fourth - quarter contracts, adopt a wait - and - see approach and mainly use a band - trading strategy [8]. 2. Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, showing continuous growth for 7 months, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [8][9]. - **Chick Hatch Quantity**: In July, the monthly hatch quantity of chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. It was the first year - on - year decrease in the past two months [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week of July, the culling volume was 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume decreased gradually after June, and the average culling age as of July 31 was 507 days [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profits, the basis of the 08 contract, the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts, the average price in the main producing areas, and the seasonal trend of the 09 contract [16][14][11]
建信期货生猪日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:49
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply of hogs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for selling is fair. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and hog prices may continue to face pressure. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, hog supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with relatively large demand increases, and their prices may show a volatile upward trend. Policies are also favorable for the medium - to - long - term hog price performance [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2509 hog futures contract opened lower, hit a low, and then rebounded, closing down. The highest price was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,940 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 476 lots to 173,049 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the national average price of external ternary hogs was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, with most in a wait - and - see mode. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the continuous recovery of enterprise sales, the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses have slightly increased. On August 4, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, a decrease of 300 heads from the previous day but an increase of 500 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: In August, the sales volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the breeding side has a high enthusiasm for selling, and the sales progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened hogs to be released. There is still pressure on sales, and the average weight of hogs for sale fluctuates slightly [8]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Profit per Head**: As of July 31, the average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per head for purchasing piglets for fattening was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [13]. - **Price of 15kg Piglets**: In the week of July 31, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Volume**: In the week of July 31, the average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [13]. - **National Hog Inventory**: At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national hog inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the quarter - on - quarter changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of July 31, the average weight of hogs for sale nationwide was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week (a 0.39% decrease) [13].
白糖日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:49
Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: August 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward drive in the sugar market is not strong currently, despite the bearish production data from the first half of July in the central - southern region of Brazil, as concerns about the decline in Brazilian sugar production still remain [7] - The recent decline of Zhengzhou sugar is mainly due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. However, considering the rapid decline in futures prices and the large basis, this round of decline may be nearing its end [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Friday, New York raw sugar futures weakened. The main October contract closed 0.92% lower at 16.20 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed 0.6% lower at $465.00 per ton. In the domestic market, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly. The SR509 contract closed at 5,718 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan or 0.76%, with a reduction of 25,642 positions. The SR601 contract closed at 5,636 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan or 0.05%, with an increase of 12,592 positions. The No. 10 contract of US sugar closed at 16.20 cents per pound, down 0.15 cents or 0.92%, with a reduction of 3,169 positions. The No. 03 contract of US sugar closed at 16.80 cents per pound, down 0.17 cents or 1.00%, with an increase of 1,384 positions [7] - **Spot Market**: Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. The price of Nanning sugar was reported at 6,010 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar was 5,820 yuan [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil**: In the first half of July 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.77%. The sugar production ratio was 53.68%, an increase of 3.79 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. From the start of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season until the first half of July, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 256.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%. The cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [9] - **India**: The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million metric tons, compared with 29.5 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season. The estimated total sugar - cane planting area in the 2025/26 season is about 5.724 million hectares, slightly higher than the 5.711 million hectares in the 2024/25 season [9] 3.3 Data Overview - Various data charts are presented, including the SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [13][15][20][23] - The total trading volume of the top 20 members in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 216,510 lots, a decrease of 33,087 lots. The total long - position volume was 153,878 lots, a decrease of 13,283 lots, and the total short - position volume was 144,032 lots, a decrease of 15,158 lots [23]
建信期货国债日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:45
1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 2. Core View - In the short - term, the market is concerned about the VAT collection on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds after August 8. Old bonds have a tax - exemption advantage, so there may be buying demand this week. After the tax is levied, new bond yields may rise. The impact on treasury bond futures is limited if the CTD remains old bonds. In the long - term, the tax mainly affects long - term varieties. Since July, the market risk appetite has increased, putting pressure on the bond market. However, the bond market has not panicked. The sustainability of the stock and commodity market rally is questionable, and the bond market may rebound. The bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but attention should be paid to economic data in August and the implementation of anti - involution measures [11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On Monday, there was buying in the bond market in the morning after the announcement of VAT on new - issued treasury bond interest income on Friday night. However, the rising A - share market in the afternoon suppressed the bond market, and the gains of treasury bond futures narrowed [8] - **Interest Rates of Spot Bonds**: The yields of short - term spot bonds decreased, while long - term ones increased by 1 - 2bp. The yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 rose 1.25bp to 1.7075% at 16:30 [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, with the overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate around 1.315%, and the 7 - day rate rising 2.76bp to 1.45%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was stable around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Tax Policy**: Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Interest income from previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. Natural persons buying bonds with a monthly limit of no more than 100,000 yuan will be exempt from VAT on interest income until December 31, 2027 [13] - **Policy Tools and Bond Issuance**: The National Development and Reform Commission will speed up the approval of new policy - based financial instruments. The issuance of government bonds, including ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and new special bonds, is expected to accelerate, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [13] - **Multi - department Measures**: Multiple departments have deployed key work for the second half of the year, with releasing domestic demand potential, promoting the integration of "two innovations", and capacity governance in key industries as the main focuses. Policies such as setting up new policy - based financial instruments are expected to be implemented [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, trading volume, and open interest, are provided for various treasury bond futures contracts on August 4 [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term - structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates is presented [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves are shown [34]