行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 05 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 油） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 数据来源：Wind， ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]

Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60954 | 8894 | 8918 | 8926 | 8746 | 8838 | -56 | -0.63% | 611600 | 350396 | -43745 | | P2601 | 8914 | 8946 | 8946 | 8756 | 8832 | -82 | -0.92% | 187926 | 207992 | 6902 | | Y2509 | 8228 | 8274 | 8296 | 8210 | 8250 | 22 | 0.27% | 310265 | 474605 | -25151 | | Y2601 | 8186 | 8230 | 8256 | 8154 | 8214 | 28 | 0.34% | 205137 | 468687 | 14291 | | OI2509 | 8495 | 9516 | 9545 | 9442 | 9542 | 41 | 0.49% | 218228 | 181646 | -7467 | | OI2601 | 9434 | 9462 | 9478 | 9383 | 9472 | 38 | 0.40% | 76818 | 133755 | 5894 | [7] Operation Suggestions - The short - term adjustment of the three major domestic oils may occur at any time, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. - The spot basis of the three major domestic oils has little room for significant downward adjustment in the later stage. It is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis. [8] Core View - In the morning, the performance of oils was poor, mainly dragged down by the decline of CBOT soybean oil and the weakness of international crude oil. - The palm oil production in Malaysia in July may be better than expected, but the export is still very weak, which means that the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. According to shipping survey agencies, the export of Malaysian palm oil in July decreased by 2.4% - 9.6% month - on - month. The increase in production and weak demand put pressure on palm oil prices. - The near - term supply of rapeseed oil is sufficient, but the fewer purchases of far - month cargoes support the futures price. - Due to the still abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans at present, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory of factory soybean oil may still increase, which drags down the rise of soybean oil, but the long - term outlook is positive. [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, the palm oil production in Malaysia in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 7.19% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 5.52% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 6.08% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. - According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,163,216 tons, a 9.6% decrease compared with 1,286,461 tons in June. According to ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,289,727 tons, a 2.4% decrease compared with 1,320,914 tons in June. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][19][21][23][26][30]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 5 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 连塑 L2509 低开，盘中震荡运行，终收 7279 元/吨，跌 57 元/吨（-0.78%）， 成交 26 万手，持仓减 12855 至 300262 手。PP 主力收于 7074 元/吨，跌 39， 跌幅 0.55%，持仓减 18401 手至 26.02 万手。期货低开弱势震荡，挫伤市场交 投气氛，多数出厂价格稳定，贸易商随行报盘，下游刚需补仓为主。供应压力 持续，三季度吉林石化、埃克森美孚惠州及广西石化 PE 新装置计划投产；宁 波大榭二期共计 90 万吨/年产能预计投放，对供应端冲击明显。需求疲软待改 善， 下游开工负荷整体维持低位。农膜开工虽低位反弹，但需求跟进缓慢； 建筑领域订单表现平淡，管材、塑编开 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Core View - On the 4th, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. The main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to close at 20,525. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium was reported at 50. The cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to oscillate stronger, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -515. In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines suggest limited shortages, with ore prices mainly at the bottom. The stimulus from the anti - involution policy in the surplus industry for related industrial products has temporarily ended, and the alumina surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina and can short - sell at high points. In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry, with weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure. At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains high, the demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories show a seasonal increase. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, macro - sentiment dominates the aluminum market. The fall of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be stronger, but the off - season continues, and one can appropriately short at high points [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to 20,525, with the index's total open interest decreasing by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium at 50. The AD - AL negative spread was -515 [8] - Bauxite supply may tighten in August due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and mine restarts limit shortages, with ore prices at the bottom [8] - Alumina's surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before policy clarity, be cautious about the upside space and consider short - selling at high points [8] - Cast aluminum is in the automotive off - season, with weak supply and demand, following Shanghai aluminum in range - bound fluctuations and maintaining a low negative spread [8] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off - season, inventories are seasonally increasing, and smelting profits have declined but are still high. Macro - sentiment dominates, and one can short at high points [8] 2. Industry News - Ghana cancelled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Potential partners include EGA or a Chinese company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh globally [9] - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10] - On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mining rights with no actual mining activities [10] - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a national power outage in April. The smelter has a capacity of 228,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [10][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Monthly Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of nickel is expected to be loose, with weakening support at the mine end. The fundamentals of nickel remain in an overall surplus pattern, and the macro - boosting effect is expected to be limited. Nickel prices may have periodic rebounds but will face pressure above. After the macro - sentiment fades, it will return to the surplus trading logic and continue to test cost support. The main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and a band trading strategy should be maintained [8][45] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Shanghai Nickel continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Affected by domestic macro - policy expectations in the first and middle of the month, it followed the sector to be relatively strong, reaching a maximum of around 125,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, as the macro - optimistic sentiment cooled, the price turned down. The Shanghai Nickel index closed at 119,970 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the end of last month. The total position of the index was 190,000 lots, an increase of 37,484 lots from the end of last month, and the trading volume increased by 1.239 million lots to 4.259 million lots. LME Nickel closed at $14,950/ton, down 1.16% from the end of last month. The total position decreased by 1,820 lots to 237,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 37,000 lots to 150,000 lots [10] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis (1) Nickel Ore Market - In July, nickel ore supply remained stable, and there is an expectation of a gradual loosening in the future. By the end of July, the average price of 1.5% CIF in the Philippines was $58/wet ton, down $2/wet ton from the end of last month. The domestic trade prices of some nickel ores in Indonesia were flat or slightly down. In June 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. From January to June 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [12][13] (2) Electrolytic Nickel/Electrowon Nickel Market - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. In July, the refined nickel output was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69%. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. The spot trading in July was cold, with the overall trading volume decreasing by 10% - 20% compared with June [19] (3) Ferronickel Market - From January to June, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.064 million nickel tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production increased by 27% year - on - year to 926,000 nickel tons. In June 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 1.041 million physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 5.5574 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.4%. In July, affected by the stainless - steel off - season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for NPI weakened, and the import volume is expected to decline compared with June [23][27] (4) Nickel Sulfate Market - In July, the nickel sulfate output was about 29,100 metal tons (equivalent to 1.322 million physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 17.30% and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. In August, due to the tightening of raw material supply, some nickel - salt production enterprises plan to continue to cut production or carry out maintenance, and the supply of nickel sulfate is expected to shrink [29] 3. Demand - Side of Fundamentals (1) Real Estate Sector - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - start area, and completion area of houses all decreased. The sales of commercial housing were basically stable, and the inventory continued to decrease. The real - estate sector is still in the process of destocking [33] (2) Automobile Sector - The 2025 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, the export of new - energy vehicles was 205,000, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the export was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [36][37] (3) Alloy and Electroplating Industry - The demand for nickel in the alloy and electroplating industry has been relatively stable in recent years. The demand for nickel beans in the new - energy sector has almost reached zero, so the proportion of pure - nickel demand in alloy and electroplating has gradually increased. In June 2025, the total pure - nickel consumption of domestic major nickel - based alloy enterprises was about 1,680 tons, an increase of 180 tons compared with May. The nickel consumption for electroplating in June was about 360 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared with March [40][42] 4. Market Outlook - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the support at the mine end will weaken. In the NPI market, although the nickel - iron price rebounded slightly at the end of the month, the stainless - steel sector is still sluggish. The demand for ternary batteries in the new - energy sector is still flat, and the recovery space of nickel - salt prices is limited. The macro - economic situation has not yet provided substantial support for the demand side. Overall, the nickel price will face pressure above, and the main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [45]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 4 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | | 表2：8月1日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 持仓 | 前 20 空头 持仓 | 前 20 多头 持仓变化 | 前 20 空头 持仓变化 | 多空 对比 | 偏离度 | | RB2510 | 1,091,327 | 1,137,768 | -42,476 | -28,385 | -14,091 | -1.26% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten due to the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine - right suspension, which will support the bottom of the ore price. However, the significant increase in bauxite imports from January to July (+34%), high port inventories, and the resumption of production of suspended mines limit the upside space of imported bauxite prices, and the price will mainly remain in the bottom - range operation [7][57]. - The stimulus of the "anti - involution" policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. If relevant policies do not cover this industry, the alumina price will still be under pressure. The alumina futures price rose rapidly this month, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window and attracting demand for spot delivery products. But the window will close again at the end of the month, weakening the support for the spot. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina. If there is a high point, short - selling can be considered [7][57]. - In the cast - aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap - aluminum supply, cast - aluminum will continue to fluctuate within a range following the Shanghai Aluminum, maintaining a low - level negative spread structure between AD - AL [7][59]. - At the electrolytic - aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, with the real - estate side continuing to drag down and a slight decline in demand in the photovoltaic field. However, there is still support from the new - energy vehicle and cable sectors. Considering that August is the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, if the aluminum price continues to fall and the peak season approaches, there may be a certain increase in demand [7][59]. - Overall, the direct impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the aluminum industry is limited, and it mainly causes fluctuations in the market due to changes in sentiment. After the digestion of policy - expectation sentiment, the aluminum price trend will return to the fundamentals. In August, as the off - season is more than half over and the end of the month will see the transition from the off - season to the peak season, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range in August being 20,000 - 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [7][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the overall operating center moving up compared to the previous month. The main increase was concentrated in the first and middle ten - days. Following the continuous repair of the macro - sentiment, the aluminum price followed the industrial - product sector and continued to run strongly. The index reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, but was significantly suppressed at the 21,000 - yuan integer mark. With the weakening of the macro - optimistic atmosphere and the cooling of market risk - preference sentiment, Shanghai Aluminum began to decline in the second half of July and continued to decline until the end of the month [9]. - Fundamentally, although July is the traditional consumption off - season, the aluminum - ingot inventory performance remained strong, staying below 500,000 tons. The inflection point of inventory accumulation was basically confirmed around the second half of the month, which provided impetus for the rise of the aluminum price. The import window remained closed during the month, and the import loss slightly increased compared to the beginning of the month, with a loss of about - 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Throughout the month, the Shanghai Aluminum index opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 20,230 yuan/ton, and closed at 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the end of the previous month. As of the end of the month, the total open interest of the index was 591,000 lots, a decrease of 68,097 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 319,000 lots to 5.88 million lots compared to the end of the previous month. The London Aluminum opened at 2,595 US dollars/ton, reached a maximum of 2,664.5 US dollars/ton, a minimum of 2,555.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,562.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the end of the previous month. The open interest at the end of the month was 684,000 lots, a decrease of 11,404 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 34,039 lots to 377,000 lots compared to the end of the previous month [9]. 3.2 Supply - side of the Fundamentals 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply remained stable in July 2025. There was no significant change in supply, and there was no oversupply. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained flat compared to the previous month. For example, in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite with specific aluminum - silicon ratios and alumina contents remained unchanged [14]. - For imported bauxite, as of the end of the month, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 73.5 US dollars/ton, a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month; the average CIF price of Australian bauxite was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month. In June 2025, China imported 18.116 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 3.44% and a year - on - year increase of 36.21%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. In July, the domestic arrival of Guinea bauxite was still from before the rainy season in Guinea and was less affected by the mine - right revocation event, with a high shipment volume. It is expected that the total amount of bauxite imported from Guinea will decline from August to October [15]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, as of July 31, the weighted average price of alumina in major regions was 3,252.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.8 yuan/ton or 4.42% compared to the end of the previous month. The prices in various domestic regions all increased. The overseas FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, and after conversion, it was about 3,347 yuan/ton at domestic ports, higher than the domestic price, and the alumina import window remained closed [20]. - In terms of production capacity and output, in July 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. As of the end of July, the built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the actual operating capacity increased by 2.00% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 81.6%. In August, the alumina price is still high, and the profitability of alumina plants is good. Only a few enterprises are expected to carry out routine maintenance, and the impact on production is limited. The operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina is expected to continue to increase slightly [21]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic - aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.05% and a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan. As of the end of the month, the built - in production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 45.69 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. In August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and the second - phase replacement project in Yunnan will be put into production and start outputting [28]. - In terms of imports and exports, the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The import window remains closed, and domestic demand is weak. The enthusiasm of overseas suppliers to send goods to China has decreased, and the net import of electrolytic aluminum in July is expected to remain at a low level. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum import volume was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 76,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month, at a low level in the same period in the past three years. The inventory of aluminum rods in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 147,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month. In London, the aluminum - ingot inventory of the London Metal Exchange was 461,025 tons, an increase of 112,400 tons compared to the end of the previous month [40]. 3.3 Demand - side of the Fundamentals 3.3.1 Real - estate Sector - The real - estate industry's aluminum consumption is mainly concentrated in the housing completion stage, including new - house doors and windows, aluminum formwork, and curtain - wall decoration. From January to June, national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume of real - estate all showed varying degrees of decline. In July, the performance of building profiles was still sluggish. Most enterprises reported a significant decrease in building - material orders, and some enterprises are transforming to industrial profiles. It is expected that the situation will remain sluggish in August [47][50][51]. 3.3.2 Automotive Sector - In January 2025, eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the 2025 automobile trade - in program, expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrapping and replacement subsidies. In the first half of 2025, the automobile trade - in policy continued to be effective, and the passenger - car market continued to perform well. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. The domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% [54][55]. 3.4 Market Outlook - As mentioned above, in August, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range from 20,000 to 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [59].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. In the spot market, August is still the peak season, and there should be at least one more price increase. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan. For the futures market, if the spot price fails to resume its upward trend in the next week, the 09 contract may continue to squeeze out the premium. If the spot price rises again, its sustainability needs to be monitored. The 4.0 - 4.2 yuan level in the spot market will still have strong pressure, corresponding to around 3800 in the futures market. The contracts for the fourth quarter are currently at historically low valuations, and long positions can be considered after the current spot price decline, but band operations are recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of eggs in the national market were weak. The average price in the main production areas was 3.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 09 contract fell 1.28%. The 2508 contract closed at 3191, down 45 or 1.39%; the 2509 contract closed at 3484, down 45 or 1.28%; the 2510 contract closed at 3295, down 17 or 0.51% [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Observe the pressure around 4.0 - 4.2 yuan in the spot market. For the 09 contract, pay attention to the spot price trend. For the fourth - quarter contracts, consider band operations and long - position layouts after the spot price decline [8]. 2. Industry News - Laying Hen Inventory: The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, it was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - Chick Hatchling Volume: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. It was the first year - on - year decrease in the past two months [9]. - Hen Culling: As of July 31, the culling volume in the previous three weeks was 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the average culling age was 507 days [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on China's monthly inventory of laying hens, egg - chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, egg main production area average price, and egg 09 seasonal trend, but specific data analysis is not elaborated in the text [11][14][16]

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - Short - term soybean meal may oscillate at a low level as US weather improves, while the view that its mid - term center of gravity will shift upward remains unchanged [6] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes of Contracts**: For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3041, the opening price was 3038, the highest price was 3049, the lowest price was 3024, the closing price was 3037, with a decrease of 4 and a decline rate of - 0.13%. The trading volume was 486,810, the open interest was 1,443,501, and the open interest change was 52,869. For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3006, the opening price was 2996, the highest price was 3022, the lowest price was 2989, the closing price was 3010, with an increase of 4 and an increase rate of 0.13%. The trading volume was 1,016,300, the open interest was 1,396,108, and the open interest change was - 19,167. For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3044, the opening price was 3033, the highest price was 3058, the lowest price was 3027, the closing price was 3047, with an increase of 3 and an increase rate of 0.10%. The trading volume was 113,663, the open interest was 623,912, and the open interest change was - 2,169 [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contracts in the external market oscillated weakly, with the main contract at 990 cents. Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months. The demand outlook for US soybeans was suppressed. The new - season US soybeans were growing well, with a latest weekly good - to - excellent rate of 70%, higher than the market - expected 67%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 67%. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening. Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline inevitably, and US soybeans were running weakly with insufficient recent bullish factors [6] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, currently in a state of wide reality and tight expectation. The import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As the time approaches, there are topics and themes for soybean meal to rise, but it should also be noted that China has started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans has recently decreased. Although there is an expectation of an increase in the cost of imported soybeans in China in the fourth quarter, the imagination space may be relatively limited [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report**: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 778,700 tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2024/25 market year was 349,200 tons, a significant increase from the previous week and a 4% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market previously estimated an increase of 100,000 - 300,000 tons. The net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 market year was 429,500 tons, and the market previously estimated a net increase of 100,000 - 600,000 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 499,600 tons, a 65% increase from the previous week and a 63% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The new sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year were 365,700 tons, and the new sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 market year were 429,500 tons [9] - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending July 29, about 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 8% in the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [9] - **EIA Data**: The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released on Thursday showed that the amount of soybean oil used for biofuel production in the US in May increased to 1.025 billion pounds. In April, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production was 829 million pounds. Soybean oil remains the largest raw material for biodiesel production in the US [10] 3. Data Overview - Not provided with specific data summaries in the content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]