Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货原油日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:35
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, demand is weak, and oil prices lack upward momentum. They are expected to move in a range, and attention should be paid to whether there are new bullish factors in the macro - environment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - **Demand Analysis**: From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. If demand remains low, it will drag down refinery operations and eventually lead to crude oil inventory build - up. The sustainability of high US refinery operating rates needs further observation [6] - **Supply Analysis**: OPEC+ is about to hold a meeting to decide on September's crude oil production. It is likely to continue the production increase of 550,000 barrels per day, thus completing the exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6] 2. Industry News - **OPEC+ Meeting**: The OPEC+ JMMC met today to discuss crude oil policies and is expected to maintain the existing production increase plan. OPEC+ senior officials said that the JMMC has no power to decide the production policies of the eight member countries [8] - **India's Crude Oil Imports**: In June, India's crude oil imports decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest level since February this year. The crude oil throughput of Indian refineries in June decreased by 4.2% month - on - month to 5.41 million barrels per day. This may be due to the seasonal decline in domestic oil demand during the monsoon season, and this trend may continue into July. However, due to the rising trend of India's oil demand, year - on - year imports should still increase [8] - **US - EU Energy Deal**: A senior US administrative official said that Trump suggested that the EU purchase $1 trillion of US energy during his tenure, and the EU finally decided to reach an agreement by purchasing $750 billion [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Dtd Brent, and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources from Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]
建信期货沥青日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:32
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Asphalt continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and due to the recent continuous decline of oil prices, the previous long positions in asphalt should be temporarily stopped for profit and wait and see [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2509, the opening price was 3617 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3569 yuan/ton, the highest was 3637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3552 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.05%, and the trading volume was 224,900 lots; for BU2510, the opening price was 3592 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3542 yuan/ton, the highest was 3608 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3526 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.14%, and the trading volume was 68,300 lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt spot prices in North China and Sichuan-Chongqing markets increased slightly, while the asphalt spot price in Shandong decreased, and the prices in other regions remained stable. The market was cautious and waiting and seeing [6] - Supply: Although some refineries in the Northeast that reduced asphalt production have no short - term production increase plans, due to Jinling Petrochemical's high - load production after July 23 and the possible resumption of production by Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants is expected to rise [6] - Demand: Rainy weather still affects most parts of China, and only Shandong and Central China have relatively less impact, which supports demand to some extent. The improvement of asphalt demand is limited [6] - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily stop for profit and wait and see for the previous long positions in asphalt [7] Group 5: Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3620 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The decline of international oil prices and asphalt futures, as well as the rainy weather, led to the decline of the spot price [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3560 - 3600 yuan/ton, remaining stable. After the typhoon, the rigid demand did not improve, and the social inventory remained stable waiting for demand release [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [9][14][17][20]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:32
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 29 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:31
Report Date - The report is dated July 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is in a state of loose balance between supply and demand, with no inventory reduction drive. The short - term price limit - down was mainly driven by policy - induced reversals, and recent price fluctuations are not closely related to fundamentals. The price has entered a wide - range oscillation range with strong support at the bottom due to spot prices and policy expectations [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main polysilicon contract hit the daily limit down. The PS2509 closed at 49,405 yuan/ton, down 5.84%. The trading volume was 581,460 lots, and the open interest was 136,295 lots, with a net decrease of 18,873 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly output of polysilicon in the third week of July was 24,400 tons, a 4.01% week - on - week increase. The supply in July will reach 100,000 - 110,000 tons, expected to meet the downstream demand of 50 - 55GW. The downstream cell production schedule is also around 50GW. After the end of the rush - installation period, the domestic monthly terminal demand will drop to about 45GW. The spot price ranges from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market News - On July 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,020 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a 23% month - on - month surge and a 12% year - on - year increase, hitting an 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand and Malaysia as the main incremental markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a 18.7% year - on - year increase. The installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a 54.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a 107.07% year - on - year increase, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]
建信期货生猪日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:31
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On July 28, the main contract 2509 of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down. The highest was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 294 lots to 193,333 lots [9]. - Spot: On July 28, the average price of foreign ternary pigs nationwide was 14.03 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level, and currently, secondary fattening is mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 28, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,300 heads, an increase of 600 heads from the previous day and 2,200 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties was relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Market Outlook - In general, in late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale enterprises increased. In order to achieve the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises continued to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the near-month futures contracts are following the decline of the spot market. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly, but the anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium- and long-term performance of pig prices. The far-month contract 2601 is strongly supported by factors such as the expected weight reduction and the supply increase being less than the demand increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 162 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -63 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 63 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [20]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [20]. - As of the week of July 24, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.46% [20].
建信期货PTA日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:31
Report Overview - Report Title: PTA Daily Report - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Reported Industry: PTA Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The PTA market lacks new positive factors. With the overall decline of bulk chemicals and insufficient rebound momentum in the crude oil market, the PTA market is expected to experience a slight decline [6] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 28th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,812 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton or 1.84%, with a settlement price of 4,852 yuan/ton and a daily position reduction of 88,775 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,810 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton, with a total volume of 347,535 lots and a decrease of 12,957 lots [6] 3.2 Industry News - **International Oil Prices**: International oil prices closed lower after minor fluctuations. On July 25th, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $65.16 per barrel, down $0.87 or 1.32%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 was $68.44 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.07% [7] - **PX Market**: The assessed price of the PX market in China was $851 - 853 per ton, down $22 per ton from the previous trading day. The assessed price in the South Korean market was $831 - 833 per ton, also down $22 per ton. There were three transactions reported, with September cargoes traded at $855 and $854 per ton, and October cargoes at $848 per ton [7] - **PTA Market in East China**: The PTA price in the East China market was 4,836 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 5 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2509, up 3 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including PTA futures prices, international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][13]
建信期货股指日评-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:28
报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 29 日 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 7 月 28 日,万得全 A 开盘震荡上行后探底回升,收涨 0.36%,超 5 成个股飘 红;指数现货方面,沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.21%、 0.26%、0.38%、0.35%,中小盘股表现更优。指数期货表现弱于现货,IF、IH、IC 主力合约收涨 0.15%、0.32%、0.10%,IM 主力合约收跌 0.06%(按前一交易日收 盘价为基准计算)。 择机加仓。 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:24
Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]
建信期货棉花日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:24
Report Overview - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions and declined. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,609 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was mostly in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1500. Some 2023/24 Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps machine-picked cotton (3129/29B) was quoted at 15,600 - 15,700 yuan/ton or above. The basis of machine-picked cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang (Grade 31, double 29) was mostly quoted in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1250, with a small amount lower than this price. The sales basis of the same quality machine-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang in the 2023/24 season was mainly in the range of CF09 + 900 - 1100, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The market price of pure cotton yarn increased, but the downstream demand was difficult to boost. Spinning mills were still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate continued to decline due to high temperatures in the inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth was sluggish, with mostly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market was concerned about the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, the drought coverage remained low, and the net long position of CFTC funds increased slightly week-on-week. The external market had limited driving force and maintained a range-bound operation. Domestically, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the overall expectation of a bumper harvest remained. The downstream spinning mills had a cold demand for cotton raw materials, but the overall rigid demand still existed. The operating rate of inland spinning mills had dropped to a relatively low level and was expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the main contract reduced positions and shifted months, with a shock adjustment, and the 9-1 spread continued to converge [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, compared with 21,635 bales on the previous trading day. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (up 3.97 percentage points week-on-week, and up 3.97 percentage points last week) [9]. - According to the statistics of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), as of July 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan for the 2025/26 season reached 46,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, textile mills purchased 39,000 tons, and the unsold new cotton was 2,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [17][18][23]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:24
Date - The date of the report is July 29, 2025 [2] Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance Futures Market - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures closed at the daily limit down. The Si2509 contract closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, down 8%. The trading volume was 683,704 lots, and the open interest was 279,057 lots, a net decrease of 44,257 lots [4] Spot Market - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the output in the fourth week of July increased to 75,200 tons. Photovoltaic demand increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the overall self - inspection of the organic silicon industry due to safety accidents has not significantly improved the supply - demand relationship. Since the end of June, the first - stage rebound of industrial silicon's futures and spot prices was mainly affected by the news of production cuts by Xinjiang Hesheng, and the second stage was mainly due to the resonance of the "anti - involution" competition policy. The repeated hitting of the daily limit down was mainly due to the panic selling of long - position holders after the reversal of policy - stimulated sentiment. Generally speaking, the recent price fluctuations are not related to the fundamentals. The current spot price (553) range is still between 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. There is obvious panic sentiment among short - term long - position holders, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased again at high prices. After a short - term decline, the price will be supported by the spot price and subsequent policies. Overall, the price will fluctuate widely [5] Market News - On July 28, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,113 lots, a net increase of 403 lots from the previous trading day [6] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [6] - On July 23, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January - June. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment was 1,504 hours, a decrease of 162 hours compared with the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [6]