能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 30 日 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased with reduced positions. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and grades of cotton had various sales basis and price ranges [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market's quotes remained stable, and transaction prices gradually approached the quotes. The overall demand in the cotton fabric market was weak, with prices mostly stable or declining [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market focused on the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the squaring rate was 80%, and the boll-setting rate was 44%. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, and the good-to-excellent rate declined slightly. Domestically, the sown area increased year-on-year, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand remained weak, and the short-term main contract adjusted with position reduction and contract switching, with the 9-1 spread continuing to converge [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, down from 21,635 bales the previous trading day. As of July 22, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (a week-on-week increase of 3.97 percentage points) [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including those on the China cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, different contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [17][18][23]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of the peak season, crude oil demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to new macro and geopolitical positives [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: The JMMC meeting did not make suggestions on OPEC's production policy. Attention should be paid to whether the eight countries will continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day. Trump set a new 10 - 12 - day deadline for Russia. If no agreement is reached, secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russian oil. From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. The sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US needs further observation. OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the withdrawal of the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6][7] 2. Industry News - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member states to fully comply with quotas. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery action [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with different data sources such as wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, with many previously surging varieties hitting the daily limit down. Alumina dropped 6.27% intraday, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy continued minor adjustments. Aluminium prices are under significant resistance at the previous high, and shorting at appropriate positions is recommended [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, SHFE Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.65% at 20,615. The total index position decreased by 26,792 to 627,084 lots. The 08 - 09 spread was 30, and the AD - AL negative spread was -510 [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine license suspensions is expected to be felt in August, and ore prices are expected to stop falling and recover [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" logic, alumina futures prices rose rapidly, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window and supporting the spot price. However, the operating capacity of alumina continues to rise, and the oversupply situation persists. After the short - term sentiment fades, it enters a correction phase [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum follows SHFE Aluminum in range - bound fluctuations, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, it is still the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, demand is weak, and the开工 rate in the aluminum processing sector remains low [8]. 2. Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Primary Aluminum Exports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Primary Aluminum Net Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum net imports were 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum net imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high [10]. - **Bauxite Mine Rights**: On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mine rights with no actual mining activities [10]. - **Alcoa's Spanish Smelter**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April. On July 14, the restart work resumed [10][11].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 29 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2508 | 22880 | 22615 | 22915 | 22540 | -185 | -0.81 | 25532 | -7876 | | 沪锌 | 2509 ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 29 日 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月28日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,202.7 | 2,172.7 | 2,183.2 | 2,188.7 | -19.5 | -0 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. In the short term, the market is dominated by macro - logic. Although each link in the industrial chain has slightly recovered, the overall oversupply pattern is still significant. With high - priced varieties entering adjustment, nickel prices will follow suit. The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel closed down 1.5% at 121,620, and the total index positions decreased by 3,066 to 178,290 lots. After the macro - sentiment cooled down, the price fell and adjusted again [7] - The rainy season in the Philippines is about to end, and the subsequent shipping volume is expected to remain at a high level, with sufficient supply and room for the ore price to fall. In Indonesia, as the subsequent RKAB supplementary quotas are gradually approved, the nickel ore supply is also expected to become loose [7] - The cost of nickel - iron plants remains high. Although the ore price is expected to decline, the current decline is limited and still at a high level. Some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving up the nickel - iron price, but the acceptance of high - priced nickel ore is still low [7] - The performance of stainless steel is still weak. It is in the traditional consumption off - season and the inventory is high, so it is difficult to effectively support the raw material end [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continues to rise. The price is expected to continue to rise slightly due to the rigid restocking demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants [7] 2. Industry News - In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of the quota was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the international reputation of the Indonesian nickel industry [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, achieving almost the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10][11]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 29 日 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月28日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 118.120 | 118.550 | 118.780 | 118.800 | 0.660 | 0.56 | 120609 | 120283 | -2054 | | TL2512 | 117.900 | 118.300 | 118.490 | 118.490 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: July 29, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Copper futures weakened, with Shanghai copper breaking below the trend - line due to the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in selling after the anti - involution sentiment faded. However, there is strong support below. The Shanghai copper main contract closed above 79,000 at the end of the session, and the near - month structure changed from contango to flat. It is expected that copper prices will face correction pressure, but there are still fundamental support factors, and the correction is a buying opportunity [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper futures weakened, Shanghai copper broke below the trend - line. The main reasons were the strengthening of the US dollar index and increased selling after the anti - involution sentiment faded. The Shanghai copper main contract closed above 79,000 at the end of the session, and the near - month structure changed from contango to flat. The spot price dropped by 375 to 79,075, and the premium dropped by 30 to 95. At the end of the month, holders had a strong selling sentiment, and social inventories increased by 0.61 to 120,300 tons over the weekend. The increase in domestic arrivals this week may add pressure on inventory accumulation. LME0 - 3 was - 53.68, and LME was still affected by the US tariff on copper on August 1. The COMEX - LME premium reached 2927 and did not widen during the session. Market caution increased before the expected deadline, and with the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week and the expiration of Trump's 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on August 1, market uncertainty increased. It is expected that copper prices will have correction pressure, but the fundamentals still provide support, and the correction is a buying opportunity [12] 3.2 Industry News - Trump revealed on Friday that more agreements are expected to be reached before the August 1 tariff deadline. European Commission President von der Leyen said she would meet with Trump in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade matters. The easing of tariff sentiment is expected to support copper prices [13] - In July 2025, Jiangxi Copper Group's first overseas wholly - owned factory, Jiangxi Copper (Zambia) Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s wire and cable project, was officially fully put into production in the Jiangxi Industrial Park in Zambia. The first - phase project invested $11 million, focusing on the production of high - quality low - voltage wire and cable and oxygen - free copper rods, with a core production capacity of 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen - free copper rods per year [13] - The president of the Japan Mining Industry Association (JMIA) said that Japanese copper smelters had a difficult mid - year negotiation with Antofagasta because they could not accept the extremely low conditions reached by Chinese smelters and Antofagasta. Japanese smelters are currently in mid - year negotiations to maintain a higher profit margin than their Chinese counterparts, but the negotiations are progressing very difficultly as Antofagasta proposed a processing fee lower than the 2025 annual level [13][14]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Report type: MEG Daily Report [1] Group 2:行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures market: On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4545, reached a high of 4545, a low of 4423, settled at 4469, and closed at 4436, down 93 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 241,057 lots, and the open interest was 258,742 lots. The EG2509 and EG2601 contracts both closed at 4436, down 93, with open interest of 258,742 lots, down 21,692 [7] - Market outlook: Currently, the macro - level positive support has weakened, leading to an overall oscillating correction in the commodity market. As the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has not changed significantly, it is expected to continue the correction trend following the commodities [7] Group 3: Industry News - International oil prices: On Friday (July 25), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.16 per barrel, down $0.87 or 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.00 - $66.74. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.44 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.31 - $69.86 [8] - Ethylene glycol market prices: The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market was 4480 - 4515 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation range in the Dongguan market was 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The negotiation range in the Fujian market was also 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventory, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]