Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Report Highlights 1. Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume was 1,033,119 lots, and the open interest was 381,048 lots, with a net increase of 1,200 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: After continuous price increases, the spot price stabilized. The strong performance of polysilicon drove industrial silicon to fluctuate strongly. The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest产区 offset the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand improved marginally. The production schedule of polysilicon increased slightly in July, and the demand for organic silicon remained stable. In the short term, the fundamental driving force was limited. The strong rise of polysilicon may drive the current price to continue to increase, but from the perspective of average cost and the cancellation price of previous warehouse receipts, 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton is a resistance range to be challenged. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,354 lots, a net increase of 142 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N-type dense material was 44,000 yuan [5]. - In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of industrial silicon was 8,851 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553-grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441-grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421-grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price remained stable overall [5].

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The cost-side oil price is expected to have room for an upward trend. The asphalt market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. In the later stage, the focus will be on the support of seasonal demand. The single-side price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate upward following the oil price [6]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2509, the opening price was 3,602 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,628 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,656 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,599 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.3%, and the trading volume was 185,700 lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3,553 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,572 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,601 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,548 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the trading volume was 38,700 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in the North China market declined slightly, while prices in other regions remained stable. The rigid demand for asphalt was weak, and the spot market maintained a cautious and wait-and-see attitude [6]. - Supply: In the East China region, Jinling Petrochemical stopped asphalt production, and Xinhai Petrochemical is expected to resume asphalt production in the late - stage after switching to producing residual oil this week. In addition, Shengxing Petrochemical in Shandong will intermittently switch to producing residual oil next week. It is expected that the average operating load rate of asphalt plants will decline next week [6]. - Demand: There will be relatively less rainfall in the northern regions later, which will support demand to some extent. The focus will be on seasonal demand support [6]. 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. Although the truck - transport price of Guangzhou Petrochemical's asphalt decreased, the refinery mainly shipped export cargoes recently, and the truck - transport resources were relatively limited. The social inventory quotes remained stable due to the high inventory cost [7]. - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3,660 - 4,070 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The strong performance of international oil prices and asphalt futures in the intraday trading boosted the spot market sentiment. Although the terminal demand for asphalt was weak, resulting in low trading volume among traders, the prices of traders and refineries remained stable [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [9][10][17][18]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Report name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The futures market of carbonate lithium shows irrational fluctuations, and the spot market continues to rise but the upward trend slows down. The downstream procurement demand is weak, and the current high - supply and high - inventory fundamentals are unfavorable for the long side, but the capital and anti - involution policies are favorable for the long side. Short - term observation is recommended [12] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures opened high and closed low, with a slight decline in total positions. The upward trend of related anti - involution varieties also slowed down. The spot market continued to rise but the increase was significantly slower, with electric carbon rising by 50 to 64,950. The irrational fluctuations in the futures market continued. The downstream procurement demand was weak due to factors such as long - term contract coverage and high customer - supplied ratios. The price of Australian ore rose by 5 to 695 US dollars per ton. The profitability of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene decreased to 347, and the losses of salt plants using purchased mica decreased to 6,769. The futures market provided hedging profits, and salt plants had high production enthusiasm. Short - term observation was recommended [12] Group 5: Industry News - A fire broke out at an energy company in Xiaogang District, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, China on the 14th, causing injuries to 12 employees and 3 firefighters. The battery factory has an annual production capacity of 1.8GW [13] - Geely Holding Group announced that Geely Auto will acquire all the remaining shares of ZEEKR. ZEEKR shareholders can choose cash or Geely Auto shares as consideration [13] - SK on's North American factory fully resumed operation after three years. Its 12 battery production lines in the US factory are operating at full capacity, and the daily battery output is expected to be more than three times that of last year [13]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The current performance of each link in the nickel industry chain continues to weaken, and the market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The current rebound is only temporary, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low levels [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 16th, Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the 120,000 integer mark. The main contract 2508 closed up 0.91% at 120,550. The total open interest of the index decreased by 12,098 to 151,318 lots [9]. - In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, with enterprises purchasing on demand. The spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [9]. - The support of the ore end in the front - end of the industrial chain is weakening. The premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has started to decline, and there is a further downward risk for the ore price in the future [9]. - The overall bargaining range of ferronickel has moved down, ferronickel plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about dragging down the external demand of the stainless - steel end. It is the traditional consumption off - season with high inventory, and the high temperature in summer further weakens the demand of some downstream industries [9]. - On the 16th, the price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,220 yuan. The demand for energy batteries is in the off - season with limited support, and it is expected to remain weak [9]. 2. Industry News - On July 8, the Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2025 was only 120 million tons, while the approved quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons. The main reason for the insufficient production was the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [10]. - Since January 2025, the cost pressure of the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio from B40 to B50, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel (Ni) contact and almost no silver (Ag), which significantly reduces the silver usage while maintaining high efficiency [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its energy goals [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum Price Movement: On the 16th, SHFE aluminum prices slightly increased. The main contract 2508 rose 0.42% to 20,475. The total index open interest decreased by 7,771 to 628,056 lots, and the 08 - 09 spread was 40 [8]. - Market Transaction: After the price decline, market trading improved, but due to the off - season, substantial improvement in downstream purchases was difficult. The premium and discount fluctuated, with a premium of 90 in East China, a discount of - 50 in Central China, and a premium of 80 in South China [8]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly with SHFE aluminum. The 2511 contract closed up 0.23% at 19,820, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 475. In the off - season of the automotive industry, with weak demand and raw material shortages, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate, maintaining a low - level negative spread [8]. - Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high but decreased slightly due to capacity replacement. Downstream开工率 was weak due to the off - season, high aluminum prices, and high temperatures. Inventory increased at the beginning of the week, and although there was destocking recently, it is expected to accumulate further. High - level short - selling hedging is recommended [8]. Group 3: Industry News - China's June Aluminum Production: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Production decreased slightly month - on - month due to the start of the second - phase electrolytic aluminum replacement from Shandong to Yunnan [9]. - July Operating Capacity: In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high. The second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the industry开工率 rebounded [9]. - Real Estate Policy: The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market, and local governments should use policy autonomy to implement targeted measures [10]. - US Aluminum Company: Alcoa's San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain is expected to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million due to a power outage. The restart was postponed but has now resumed [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper continued to trade in a narrow range, with total positions decreasing by 12,976 lots. The volatility of copper prices decreased, leading to an increase in the sentiment of capital leaving the market. After the contract rollover, the spread between contracts further narrowed, with the 08 - 09 spread narrowing to 10. The spot premium dropped 40 to 95, and the domestic futures - spot premium collapsed, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation. The LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 48, and LME inventories increased by 10,525 tons, with a 5,975 - ton increase in the new Hong Kong warehouse. Both the Shanghai and London markets continued to accumulate inventories due to the impending US tariffs, and the tight spot situation continued to ease, weakening the support of the spot end for copper prices. However, the medium - term supply and demand remained strong. The US CPI showed inflation resilience, and the probability of no interest rate cut in July fluctuated little, with short - term macro - level fluctuations also decreasing. [11] - Forecast: It is expected that copper prices will operate within the previous trading range. [11] Group 4: Industry News - Mining Accident: On July 15, 2025, a fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yuanqu County, Yuncheng, Shanxi, resulting in 3 deaths [12]. - LME Standard Warehouse Receipts: Cathode copper of two brands, Luanshya CLM and Daye DJ - B, under the group company traded by Zhongse International Trade Co., Ltd. obtained LME registered copper standard warehouse receipts, which are the first batch of LME copper standard warehouse receipts after the establishment of the LME delivery warehouse in Hong Kong. GKEML has successfully completed the first batch of LME warehouse receipts for copper, nickel, and tin [12][13]. - Company Outlook and Production: Antofagasta, a Chilean copper mining company, is optimistic about the medium - term prospects of copper. Its revenue guidance for this year remains unchanged. In the second quarter of 2025, copper production was 160,100 tons, a 3% increase; gold production was 48,300 ounces, a 13% increase. It is expected that copper production will increase quarter - by - quarter for the rest of the year. Molybdenum production in the second quarter was 4,400 tons, a 42% increase quarter - on - quarter [12]. - Protest Suspension: Peruvian informal miners suspended their more than two - week - long protest on Tuesday. A protest leader, Luis Huaman, said they plan to suspend the protest until at least Friday while continuing to pressure the government to introduce more favorable regulations for informal mining [12].

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On July 16, the iron ore futures main contract 2509 fluctuated upward, reaching a new high since February 28. The market sentiment was boosted by factors such as the easing of trade risks and the expectation of new urbanization investment. However, fundamentally, iron ore is still in a state of increasing supply and decreasing demand. In the short term, the iron ore price will maintain a relatively strong trend, but there is a risk of price decline in the mid - to - late third quarter if policies do not meet expectations [7][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On July 16, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by $0.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a differentiated trend, and the MACD red column narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - External market: The US said it would meet with China, easing trade risks. Domestic market: The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and many securities firms released research reports on "anti - involution", reversing the sentiment of oversupplied varieties. The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on new urbanization investment also boosted market sentiment. Fundamentally, iron ore supply is strong and demand is weak. Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased regularly after the peak, and arrivals increased. Iron ore supply will remain loose until mid - July and then gradually tighten. Demand, including hot metal and steel production, is on a downward trend, but due to the good profitability of steel enterprises, the production cut process will be slow, which will support the ore price [10][11] 2. Industry News - In early July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous ten - day period. The average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased by 1.5%, 1.1%, and 11.9% respectively compared with the previous period [12] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including iron ore prices at Qingdao Port, price differences between different ore grades, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, and various indicators related to steel production and consumption [17][21][37]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points. The quotes of major airlines remained stable, possibly supported by good cargo demand. For the 08 contract, there is still some room for repair as it is at a discount to the spot index. For October, which is a traditional off - season, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's quotes in the second half of July were slightly higher than in the first half, and the quotes of other airlines converged to $3300 - 3500. For August, only a few airlines have reported fares, and attention should be paid to whether other airlines will follow the price increase. The 08 contract has room for repair, and for October, focus on short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [8] 2. Industry News - From July 7 to July 11, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with freight rates fluctuating due to different supply - demand fundamentals. The European economic recovery was relatively stable, but the outcome of the EU - US tariff negotiation was uncertain. The freight rates in the European route were stable, while those in the Mediterranean route declined slightly, and those in the North American route rebounded after adjustment. The US - EU trade negotiation was ongoing, with automobile and agricultural product tariffs as key issues, and the negotiation result was subject to Trump's decision. Trump also planned to impose unified tariffs on most trading partners, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen restricted ships related to Israel from passing through relevant sea areas [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) increased from 2258.04 on July 7 to 2421.94 on July 14, a rise of 7.3%. SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) decreased from 1557.77 on July 7 to 1266.59 on July 14, a decline of 18.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts on July 16 were presented, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., with details of opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]

Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with GDP growing by 5.3% year-on-year, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not significant. It is expected that the Politburo meeting at the end of July will mainly continue past policies rather than introduce unexpected ones [7]. - The export in the second half of the year still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand and infrastructure investment remain important drivers of the economy. A-share trading volume hovers around 1.5 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index needs further breakthrough in trading volume to firmly stand above 3,500 points [7]. - It is recommended to maintain a medium to low position in long contracts and add positions after a pullback. In terms of market style, the Shanghai 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform better, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On July 16, the Wind All A index opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing up 0.06%, with over 60% of stocks rising. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed down 0.30%, 0.23%, and 0.03% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed up 0.30%. Index futures outperformed the spot, with IF and IH main contracts closing down 0.24% and 0.14%, and IC and IM main contracts closing up 0.03% and 0.33% respectively [6]. 1.2 Outlook - In the external market, the impact of US tariffs on inflation has emerged. The unadjusted CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the previous value of 2.8%, which affected the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Domestically, the economic data in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the Politburo meeting at the end of July will mainly continue past policies [7]. - In the first half of the year, domestic demand was steadily restored, exports were resilient, and industrial production grew rapidly. In the second half of the year, exports still face uncertainties, and domestic demand and infrastructure investment are important drivers of the economy. A-share trading volume hovers around 1.5 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index needs further breakthrough in trading volume to firmly stand above 3,500 points [7]. - It is recommended to maintain a medium to low position in long contracts and add positions after a pullback. In terms of market style, the Shanghai 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform better, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [7]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the performance of domestic main indexes, market style, industry sector performance, trading volume of Wind All A and index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics on the share and trading volume of major ETF funds [8][13][17][20] 3. Industry News - On July 16, a symposium on the all - rounded expansion of domestic demand was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promoting high - quality development [30]