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建信期货生猪日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to increased group sales at the end of July and weak demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to remain under pressure. In the long - term, although pig supply shows a slight increase, favorable policies such as the anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection in some regions will have a positive impact on pig prices, and the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity needs attention [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 30th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,005 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 33 lots to 186,242 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 30th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 30th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,400 heads, an increase of 800 heads from the previous day and 3,900 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening was high, with more pigs for secondary fattening still to be slaughtered [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24th was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [18]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [18]. - As of the week of July 24th, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.46% [18].
建信期货纸浆日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:10
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Summary 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 09 closed at 5374 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous settlement price of 5422 yuan/ton [7] - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5300 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5930 - 5950 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced its July quotation. Yinxing had no new offers as all transactions were completed. The net price of Uruguay hardwood pulp Xinmingxing was 500 US dollars/ton [7] - In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year [7] - In June, the inventory of wood pulp in Europe increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [7] - In June, China's total pulp imports were 3.03 million tons, up 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year [7] - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.39% month - on - month, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Affected by the off - season atmosphere this week, the production and sales pressure of downstream paper manufacturers remained high. In the short term, pulp prices declined under pressure due to the influence of the commodity market atmosphere [7] 2. Industry News - From January to June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. From January to June, the operating income of the paper and paper products industry was 681.21 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the operating cost was 601.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the total profit was 17.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4% [8] - Shandong Yinhe Ruixue Paper Co., Ltd. plans to eliminate its existing 102,000 - ton wheat straw chemical pulp production facilities in the first, second, and third - phase continuous cooking, washing, screening, and bleaching workshops, as well as the supporting alkali recovery workshop and white mud refined calcium carbonate workshop [8] 3. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [7][25][27]
白糖日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract dropped significantly. The 09 contract closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a reduction of 33,554 positions. The decline might be due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. Speculative long - positions in the near - month 09 contract exited in large numbers, while industrial hedging long - positions showed signs of entering. Speculative funds on the far - month 01 contract had an obvious intention to go long, and the 9 - 1 spread might further shrink [7][8]. - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main October contract rising 0.79% to 16.56 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures main October contract fell 0.02% to $475.30 per ton. The overnight rise in crude oil prices provided some support to sugar prices. The market is expecting a significant increase in the production data of central - southern Brazil in the first half of July [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan or 0.92%, with a position of 277,031 contracts and a reduction of 33,554 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,666 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.91%, with a position of 200,143 contracts and an increase of 18,274 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 16.56 cents per pound, up 0.13 cents or 0.79%, with a position of 395,463 contracts and a reduction of 2,396 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 17.16 cents per pound, up 0.11 cents or 0.65%, with a position of 223,411 contracts and an increase of 160 contracts [7]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Sugar Market**: The decline of Zhengzhou sugar was possibly due to the pressure of concentrated supply of processed sugar. The exit of speculative long - positions in the 09 contract and the entry intention of industrial hedging long - positions, along with the long - entry intention of speculative funds in the 01 contract, may lead to a further shrinkage of the 9 - 1 spread [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **Farmland Moisture in Guangxi**: According to a report released by the Guangxi Soil and Fertilizer Station in mid - July, among 42 monitoring points of 14 farmland moisture monitoring stations in the region, 16 points had excessive moisture, 22 points had suitable moisture, and 4 points had insufficient moisture. Over 90% of the farmland moisture was suitable to excessive during the monitoring period [9]. - **Sugar Production Forecast in Central - Southern Brazil**: A survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of July is expected to increase by 12.5% to 3.329 million tons. The cane crushing volume is expected to increase by 11.3% year - on - year to 48.31 million tons. The sugar yield per ton of cane (ATR) is expected to decrease by 4.1% year - on - year to 136.18 kilograms per ton. The sugar - making ratio of cane is expected to be 53.11% [9]. - **Sugar Mill Clearance in Guangxi**: Tiandong Ertang Sugar Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory on July 25, becoming the 7th sugar factory of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 crushing season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still quoting [9]. - **Customs Mutual Recognition Arrangement**: The "Arrangement on Mutual Recognition of the Chinese Customs Enterprise Credit Management System and the Thai Customs 'Authorized Economic Operator' System" will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - **Coca - Cola's New Product**: Coca - Cola Company announced on Tuesday that it will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall, confirming a recent statement by President Donald Trump [9]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, the Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][20]. - The total long - position of the top 20 seats was 325,093 contracts, an increase of 105,773 contracts; the total short - position was 212,307 contracts, a decrease of 17,666 contracts; the total delivery - related position was 192,544 contracts, a decrease of 26,731 contracts [23].
建信期货沥青日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The asphalt market still maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. With oil prices rebounding due to macro - and geopolitical support, a short - term long strategy should be adopted for asphalt, and profits should be taken in a timely manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2509, the opening price was 3630 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3650 yuan/ton, the highest was 3677 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3616 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.00%, and the trading volume was 191,500 lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3636 yuan/ton, the highest was 3659 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3601 yuan/ton, the daily increase was 1.22%, and the trading volume was 100,100 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: Asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The continuous rise in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a positive impact on the asphalt spot market sentiment. In terms of supply, although some refineries in the Northeast had no short - term production increase plans, due to the high - load production of Jinling Petrochemical after resuming production on the 23rd and the possible resumption of production by Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants was expected to rise. On the demand side, rainy weather affected most parts of the country, and the improvement in asphalt demand was limited [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3560 - 3590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Market demand improved slightly, and social inventory quotes remained stable, waiting for major refineries to re - price [8]. - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3660 - 3800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Affected by typhoon weather, market demand declined slightly. Although the asphalt futures market rebounded, it was difficult to increase spot prices due to weak demand [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple figures related to the asphalt market, including Shandong asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17].
建信期货棉花日报-20250731
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:00
Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 31, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased in position and price. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and varieties of cotton had different sales price bases and quotes. The pure - cotton yarn market's quotes were stable, and the transaction price was approaching the quote. The all - cotton grey fabric market had weak demand, and the fabric price was stable and weak, with only partial improvement in some areas [7]. - Macroscopically, the negotiation on the suspension of tariff extension between China and the US was ongoing. In the international market, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, showing a slight decline. The budding, squaring rates of US cotton indicated a slower growth progress, and the outer market was oscillating within a range. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year - on - year, with an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand was still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to converge [8]. Industry News - As of July 24, the deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE were 21,617 bales. According to CFTC data, as of July 22, 2025, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 18.94%, up 3.97 percentage points week - on - week [9]. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including those related to China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][23]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:30
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in iron ore prices is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen. However, the black sector may face an overall correction, and iron ore prices will follow suit. It is recommended to take profits on long - term contracts after the rebound and pay attention to policy implementation [10][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market**: On July 29, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened lower, rebounded after a slight decline, turned from a loss to a gain, and closed at 798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. Other steel futures also showed different trends, with RB2510 up 1.98%, HC2510 up 2.01%, and SS2509 down 0.12% [7][5] - **Spot Market**: On July 29, the main iron ore foreign market quotes increased by $1.5/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 5 - 15 yuan/ton [9] - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days [9] 2. Future Outlook - **Influence of Policies**: The recent black - sector market is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy. Iron ore may experience a decline in demand due to steel mill production cuts, and the recent price increase is mainly due to the spill - over effect of rising steel prices. From a long - term perspective, the center of ore prices has risen [10][11] - **Supply Side**: Last week, Australia's shipping volume rebounded, and Brazil's shipping volume was basically the same as the previous week. The total shipping volume recovered after a seasonal decline. Currently, the weekly shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is around 27 million tons, and the arrival volume last week dropped to 22.405 million tons. Considering shipping schedules, the arrival volume may fluctuate at this level until mid - August [11] - **Demand Side**: Downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and hot metal production has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profitability has increased, and steel mills are maintaining high - volume production. The subsequent production - cut process is expected to be slow, which will support ore prices [11] - **Short - term Forecast**: The current futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. In the short term, the ore price has rebounded due to Sino - US negotiations and the Politburo meeting. However, considering the reversal of coking coal trends and the ebbing of anti - involution hype, the black sector may face a correction, and ore prices will follow [12] 3. Industry News - On July 29, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. was included in the list of central enterprises directly managed by the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council. Zhu Huarong was appointed as the Party Secretary and Chairman of China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd. [13] - On July 28, Jiangxi Province successfully issued the seventh batch of government bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total scale of 27.255 billion yuan, including 14.743 billion yuan in new special bonds [13] 4. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipping volumes, arrival volumes, inventory, production, and consumption [19][22][23][28][30][34][39][40]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:17
行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货7月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | (%) | | | | | EC2508 | 2,188.7 | 1,858.0 | 2,111.0 ...
建信期货锌期货日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:53
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The commodity market sentiment declined. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.35%. The total long and short positions of the top 20 seats both decreased, and the net long positions decreased by 3,447 lots. [7] - The processing fee continued to rise. The imported zinc concentrate index rose to $76.25 per dry ton, and the weekly processing fee of domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate remained flat at 3,800 yuan/ton. With the profits from sulfuric acid and minor metals at a high level year-on-year, enterprises' production enthusiasm was high, and some new zinc ingot production capacities were gradually released. The overall zinc ingot supply remained strong. [7] - In the second half of the year, infrastructure investment may increase the demand for zinc. However, the short-term operating rates of galvanizing and die-casting zinc remained at a low level compared to the same period, and downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices. [7] - The inventory performance was divided between domestic and overseas markets. The domestic social inventory increased by 0.54 million tons to 10.37 million tons, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease by 3,350 tons to 112,150 tons. The 0 - 3 spread was 1.95C, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 48.64%. [7] - The spot premium remained basically stable. The Shanghai market had a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the 08 contract, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market was at a discount of 80 yuan/ton compared to the 09 contract and 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. [7] - The zinc concentrate supply remained loose, and the surplus pressure during the off - season of demand was gradually reflected in the inventory. Although the short - term sentiment declined, the anti - involution was not over, and SHFE zinc oscillated weakly. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - SHFE zinc 2508 opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,610 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,690 yuan/ton, a low of 22,555 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.31%. The open interest was 20,462 lots, a decrease of 5,070 lots. [7] - SHFE zinc 2509 opened at 22,645 yuan/ton, closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,725 yuan/ton, a low of 22,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.35%. The open interest was 117,616 lots, a decrease of 6,845 lots. [7] - SHFE zinc 2510 opened at 22,665 yuan/ton, closed at 22,675 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,735 yuan/ton, a low of 22,585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.29%. The open interest was 54,037 lots, an increase of 3,567 lots. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc ingots was strong, and the demand was weak in the short term. The inventory performance was divided between domestic and overseas markets. [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot premium remained stable, and the price difference between regions changed. [7] 2. Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On July 29, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,650 - 22,785 yuan/ton, and the double - swallow brand was traded between 22,730 - 22,855 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc was traded between 22,580 - 22,715 yuan/ton. [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,590 - 22,705 yuan/ton. The local brands had a premium of 5 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot price. [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The 0 zinc was traded between 22,510 - 22,660 yuan/ton, and the 1 zinc was traded around 22,430 - 22,560 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was priced at 23,120 yuan/ton. [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,470 - 22,655 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were at a discount of 80 yuan/ton compared to the 2509 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provided figures on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, but specific data descriptions were not detailed in the text. [11][13]
碳酸锂期货日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:49
Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline, with the main contract hitting a low of 68,600 during the session. After the first trading session, there was an obvious rebound in the anti - involution theme, and the decline of carbonate lithium narrowed. The spot market was resistant to decline, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 750 to 73,150. The spot was at a premium to the futures, and upstream lithium salt enterprises still showed strong price - holding willingness. There was a significant divergence in the psychological price expectations between upstream and downstream enterprises. The decline of Australian ore was greater than that of spot electric carbon, while the price of lithium mica ore was resistant to decline. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene expanded, while the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened. The supply of carbonate lithium was expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and the fundamentals were difficult to support the price. The futures were expected to continue to hype the anti - involution logic, and the short - term support level of the futures was around 68,000 [11]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures dropped, and the decline narrowed after a rebound. The spot market was more resistant to decline, with the electric carbon price dropping by 750 to 73,150. Upstream enterprises had a strong price - holding intention, with a psychological expectation price range of 73,000 - 74,000 yuan, while downstream enterprises preferred to purchase through the futures premium and discount point - price model. Australian ore prices dropped by 65 to 780 US dollars per ton, expanding the production profit of spodumene - using salt plants to 2,489 yuan per ton. High - grade lithium mica prices dropped by 30 to 1,775 yuan per ton, widening the production loss of lithium - mica - using salt plants to 6,968 yuan per ton. The production volume of carbonate lithium from spodumene may further increase, while the production volume from lithium mica depends on the reduction and shutdown of relevant mines in Jiangxi. The short - term supply is expected to remain high, and the futures may continue to hype the anti - involution logic, with short - term support at around 68,000 [11]. 2. Industry News - A study by the University of Hong Kong found that aluminum impurities in the lithium - ion battery recycling process can form super - stable aluminum - oxygen bonds in the cathode crystals, trapping key metals and reducing their leachability, which challenges traditional recycling practices and emphasizes the need to redesign specific solvent processes [14]. - Two major new - energy companies achieved a breakthrough in recycling batteries by producing battery - grade lithium hydroxide from waste electric vehicle batteries. Their innovative process can extract lithium from mixed NMC and LFP black powder on one production line, improving versatility and reducing costs. The produced lithium hydroxide meets the purity standards of cathode manufacturers, which is in line with the EU battery regulations' goals of 50% lithium recovery rate by 2027 and 80% by 2031 [15].
建信期货镍日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with the short - term market dominated by macro logic. The overall oversupply pattern is still significant, and the nickel price is expected to be weak. The upstream nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, the support from iron plants and stainless steel is limited, and the battery - grade nickel sulfate price has rebounded. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2509, closed down 0.85% at 121,800, and the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,705 to 174,585 lots. [7] - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the ore price is likely to fall. [7] - The support from nickel iron plants and the stainless - steel market is limited. The cost of nickel iron plants is high, and some Indonesian production lines have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte. The stainless - steel market is weak due to the traditional off - season and high inventory. [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to rise, reaching 27,370 yuan/ton on the 29th, supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and low inventory of nickel salt plants. [7] 3.2行业要闻 - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry, considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan. [8][10] - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. [9] - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and low silver usage, which can significantly reduce production costs. [9] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with a total approved storage capacity of over 1.6 GW. [9]