报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：7月17日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 31 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the off-season, both supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to weaken, while smelting profits are high. It is recommended to mainly conduct short-selling hedging at high levels [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 17th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract 2508 rising slightly by 0.07% to 20,415. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,825 to 633,881 lots, and the premium of 08 - 09 remained flat at 40 compared to the previous day [8]. - After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream purchasing willingness increased. However, due to the strong off-season sentiment, purchases were difficult to improve substantially. The premium and discount fluctuated, with a premium of 100 in East China, a discount of -30 in Central China, and a premium of 85 in South China [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the 2511 contract closing slightly up 0.18% at 19,845. The negative spread of AD - AL was -445. Currently in the off - season of the automotive industry, with weakening demand and short supply of raw materials, it is expected that cast aluminum will continue to fluctuate, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will be maintained [8]. - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, with a slight decrease in the short term due to capacity replacement. The demand side was still troubled by the off - season. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector was still sluggish, with insufficient orders. Due to high - temperature weather, some downstream production lines in the Central China region that had previously cut production began to resume operation one after another. On Thursday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.9 to 492,000 tons compared to Monday, but still increased by 26,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Overall, it was still in a state of inventory accumulation, and the subsequent support for prices was expected to continue to weaken [8]. 3.2 Industry News - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum changed slightly. Due to the start of the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the replacement capacity of the original factory was required to reduce production, and the new factory could start production after passing the acceptance. As a result, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM stated that the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. The second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, and the industry's operating rate rebounded, while other projects remained unchanged [10]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development said it would continue to consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market. The research team recently visited Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market. Local governments should take responsibility, make full use of the autonomy of real estate regulation policies, implement policies according to local conditions, and promote the real estate market to stop falling and recover [10]. - Alcoa announced on July 14 that it expected its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart by mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The plant's production decreased in 2021 due to high electricity prices. The restart plan was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint - venture company suspended the resumption of production until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and measures to prevent similar events. The electrolytic aluminum plant has a production capacity of 228,000 tons. After consultations, Alcoa and its joint - venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings decided to resume the project. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of approximately $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026 [10].

huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 17 日，万得全 A 震荡上涨，收涨 0.94%，超 6 成个股飘红；指数现货方 面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.68%、0.12%、1.08%、 1.14%。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.03%、0.40%、 1.40%、1.47%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算）。 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points this week. The quotes in July changed little, with Maersk's quotes in the second half of July slightly higher than in the first half. The quotes of other airlines converged to $3300 - $3500. The 08 contract is still at a discount to the spot index and has room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's quotes in the second half of July were slightly higher than in the first half, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - $3500. In August, few airlines have reported freight rates. HPL continued the late - July rate, and CMA CGM raised the rate by $800 compared to late July. The 08 contract is at a discount to the spot index and has repair space. In October, focus on short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From July 7 to July 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates rising and falling due to different supply - demand fundamentals of different routes. The comprehensive index declined slightly [9] - European Route: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, better than expected. The index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation has no clear result, and the market faces uncertainty. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate was stable. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Route: The supply - demand fundamentals were weaker than the European route, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% from the previous period [9] - North American Route: The "tariff war" was the focus. Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. The US set new tariff rates for multiple countries and will impose a 50% tariff on copper. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate rebounded after adjustment. On July 11, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and East basic ports were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively from the previous period [9][10] - EU - US Trade Negotiation: The negotiation on EU - US trade is ongoing, with automobile and agricultural product tariffs being the key issues. Any agreement depends on Trump's decision and may be overturned by him. The US currently imposes 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on the automotive sector, and 10% on most other goods [10] - Trump's Tariff Plan: Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all trading partners that have not been tariffed [10] - Yemen Houthi Armed Forces: The leader of the Yemen Houthi armed forces said that as long as Israel continues to invade and blockade Gaza, the armed forces will continue to ban ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The European route index rose from 2258.04 to 2421.94, an increase of 7.3%. The US West route index fell from 1557.77 to 1266.59, a decrease of 18.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [16][19]

Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Core View - If the weather is normal, the domestic soybean meal market will be treated as slightly bearish in a volatile pattern. If there are changes in the weather, there will be upward potential [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.36% - 1.71%. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,468,250, and the trading volume of the 2601 contract was 463,074. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was strong, with the main contract at 1020 cents [6] - **External Market Factors**: Last week, the external market was weak. Trump initiated a new round of trade disputes, which worried the market about the impact on US soybean exports. The growth of new - season US soybeans was smooth, with a growth excellent - good rate of 66% as of July 6, and only 9% of the area affected by drought. The 7 - month USDA report had limited impact, and the demand side was still highly variable [6] - **Domestic Market Factors**: Domestic soybean meal was relatively strong compared to the external market last week, with a rebound after bottom - grinding. Nationally, soybean meal was in a inventory - accumulation cycle, with a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, and some oil mills reported full storage. However, downstream buyers were willing to make safety purchases at relatively low spot prices, providing some support. The upward elasticity mainly came from the transmission of CBOT soybean prices and US weather [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending July 10, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 350,000 - 1,000,000 tons, with 200,000 - 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season and 150,000 - 400,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 23,000 tons [7] 3. Data Overview - **Renewable Fuel Credit Quotas**: In June, the US ethanol (D6) blending credit quota was about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May. The biodiesel (D4) blending credit quota increased from 602 million gallons in the previous month to 629 million gallons in June [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Currently, the group's pig出栏量 has recovered, and prices have continued to decline. From mid - to late July, large - scale pig - farming enterprises may increase their supply to meet monthly targets. With demand in the off - season, pig prices are likely to face further pressure. In the medium - to long - term, pig supply will increase, but anti - cut - throat competition initiatives and strengthened environmental protection policies are favorable for long - term pig prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 17th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive candle. The highest price was 14,075 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,060 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,275 lots to 160,859 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly widened, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and farmers reduced the number of pigs for sale. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughterhouses remained low. On July 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 131,600 heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 5,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig出栏量 of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% decrease from June. The出栏量 may be slightly adjusted down. In the early part of the month, enterprises temporarily held back pigs and reduced the number of pigs for sale, but now the出栏 progress has recovered. There are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [8]. 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 44 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/head [9][11]. 3. Data Overview - The average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 10 was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [19]. - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period [19]. - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week [19]. - As of the week ending July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a 0.30% increase [19].

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc switched to 2508, closing at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan or 0.52%. It showed reduced volume and decreased positions, with positions decreasing by 11,088 lots to 67,223 lots. The spread between the 08 and 09 contracts was 10 [7]. - The inventory trends of domestic and overseas markets continued to diverge. LME zinc had a cumulative delivery of 16,225 tons, and the inventory increased to 121,475 tons. The 0 - 3C was 8.95, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 8.18, with the import window deeply closed. Domestic social inventory increased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching 93,500 tons [7]. - The downstream orders were weak. In the first half of the week, the decline in the market led to better trading, but in the second half, it basically maintained rigid procurement. The premium in the Shanghai market for the 08 contract was 40 - 50 yuan/ton, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton for the 09 contract. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained stable [7]. - Fundamentally, there were limited changes. The domestic consumption side was squeezed by both the off - season and weak exports. The off - season inventory accumulation trend was realized. It rebounded in the short term due to macro news, but the upward driving force was weak, and it fluctuated weakly around 22,000 yuan/ton [7]. Industry News - On July 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,090 - 22,200 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded at 22,170 - 22,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was 22,020 - 22,130 yuan/ton [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,080 - 22,170 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo offered a premium of 20 yuan/ton for the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 22,030 - 22,150 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded at 22,050 - 22,170 yuan/ton. 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 21,930 - 22,040 yuan/ton. Huludao was priced at 23,060 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc in Tianjin was at a discount of 0 - 20 yuan/ton for the 2508 contract, and Zijin was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton for the 2508 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 40 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 21,990 - 22,130 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands offered a discount of 40 yuan/ton for the 2509 contract and a discount of 80 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained stable [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification demand will continue to support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's new policies and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut in the third quarter should be noted. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - thinking traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the clarification of dismissal rumors, along with US PPI data, caused gold price fluctuations. Anti - involution expectations drove up silver prices. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, with London gold expected to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP, June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.12, down 0.02%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9174, up 0.18%; Gold T + D closed at 770.80, down 0.18%; Silver T + D closed at 9113, up 0.04% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported it. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump said he doesn't plan to fire Powell but doesn't completely rule it out. Bloomberg's report of a possible dismissal caused market fluctuations [17]. - Trump mentioned maintaining Japan's tariff rates, being close to a trade deal with India, and the possibility of a deal with Europe, but it's too early to comment on the Canada deal [17]. - The EU is ready to impose tariffs worth 72 billion euros ($83.6 billion) on US goods if trade negotiations with the US fail [18]. - Canada will implement a tariff - quota system for countries with free - trade agreements (except the US) and impose a 25% additional tariff on steel imports containing Chinese - smelted and cast steel [18]. - US producer prices were unexpectedly flat in June, and weak service prices may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates later this year [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 18, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, in the short - term, the market will follow the overall commodity trend and fluctuate strongly, but in the long - term, it is bearish due to supply - demand contradictions. For glass, in the short - term, it will fluctuate with the overall commodity trend, and in the long - term, the fundamental driving force is weak [8][10] Group 4: Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On July 17, the main futures contract SA509 of soda ash turned from a decline to a rise, with a closing price of 1,225 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.15%, and a daily reduction of 39,415 lots [7] - In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand both increased, and inventory accumulation still existed. The weekly output was 733,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%, and the weekly capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a week - on - week increase of 2.78%. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.48%, and the total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.26% [8] Glass - In terms of supply, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased, and the supply of float glass also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory was at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction was slow, leading to potential further inventory accumulation [9] - In the downstream, the domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues. The policy orientation needs further observation [10] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the output of flat glass [12][13][17]

1. Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in volume and price, breaking through the upper resistance level. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,354 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 4129/29B/impurity 3.5 in northern Xinjiang was mostly above CF09+1500, and some were in the range of 1400-1500, but the quantity was gradually decreasing. The basis of machine-picked 31-grade double-29 cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang, was mostly above CF09+1100, and the higher quotes were above CF09+1200, with the basis below 1200 continuing to decrease [7]. - The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market remained stable, with a relatively weak atmosphere. The price of cotton yarn was stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream enterprises gradually digested the previous price increase. During the off-season, spinning mills continued to reduce production by lowering the operating rate to alleviate inventory pressure. The price of cotton grey fabric increased, with some small orders increasing and shorter delivery times, but the overall market remained weak with limited improvement. Currently, the inventory pressure of conventional products in weaving mills was still high, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [7]. - As of July 13, in the United States, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton-growing states was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; and the good-to-excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year. Although the overall growth progress was slightly slower, the good-to-excellent rate continued to rise, and there was still room for an increase in production. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remained. Driven by the continuous rise in raw material prices, most downstream spinning mills maintained just-in-time procurement, and some large spinning mills made large-scale basis-locking purchases [8]. Operation Suggestions - The short-term resistance level of the futures market has been broken, opening up the upside space. However, the current strong rise does not represent a fundamental trend reversal but a phased rebound driven by capital, waiting for the release of bullish sentiment [8]. 3. Industry News - According to Xinjiang Xingnong Network, from July 15 to 21, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high temperatures above 37°C, with the highest temperatures in some areas reaching above 40°C and even above 45°C in Turpan and Hami. The peak of the high temperature will occur from July 19 to 20. Currently, most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll-forming stage [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][21]