Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper continued its weak oscillating trend, hitting a low of 77,690. It has reversed all the gains since late June due to the early implementation of US tariffs, which pressured both the Shanghai and London markets. The premium between the spot and futures of Shanghai copper has significantly narrowed, and the spread between contracts 08 - 09 has dropped to 100. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure has widened to 62. Meanwhile, the macro - tariff disturbances have increased, and the US dollar index has slightly risen. The factors that previously drove up the copper price have all reversed. [11] - With the opening of the domestic import window, the tightness in the spot market will continue to ease as imported supplies increase. The ratio of cancelled warrants in the LME market has dropped to 11.4%, and the spread between tomorrow - next also shows a contango structure. It is expected that there will be signs of spot supply relief in both the Shanghai and London markets, weakening the support of the spot end for the copper price. However, the medium - term supply - demand remains strong. China's economic resilience shown in the second - quarter data indicates decent macro - demand performance. Therefore, the previous oscillating range is still expected to strongly support the copper price. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's price has reversed gains since late June, with the spot - futures premium narrowing and spreads changing. The LME market also shows a more obvious contango structure. The macro - environment has become less favorable for copper prices, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still strong, and the previous price range is a strong support. [11] 2. Industry News - The National Energy Administration has officially included the Ganjiang - Gannan 1000 - kV UHV AC power transmission and transformation project in the national power development plan. The project plans to build a 1000 - kV substation in Gannan with 2 transformers of 3 million kVA each and 2 1000 - kV AC transmission lines about 600 kilometers long, which is a key step in expanding the UHV backbone grid in Central China during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. [12] - Zhongtiaoshan maintained stable production in the first half of the year, achieving full - load processing of concentrates. Cathode copper production reached 100.51% of the plan, anode slime production reached 116.99% of the plan, gold content in anode slime reached 100.07% of the plan, and silver content in anode slime reached 126.64% of the plan. Its operating income increased by 8.45% year - on - year, achieving stable profitability. [12] - Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton/year anode copper renovation project is in the pre - project stage, and Liangshan Copper's 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project is accelerating, aiming for trial production by the end of the year. [13] - In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4%. [13]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report - Date: July 16, 2025 - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current nickel industry chain is showing continuous weakness. After a brief rebound, the nickel market has turned down again, and it is expected to continue its weak trend. The decline in the price of refined nickel, the weakening support at the ore end, the downward shift in the bargaining range of ferronickel, the high inventory in the stainless - steel market, and the weak demand for nickel sulfate all contribute to this situation [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Performance**: On the 15th, Shanghai nickel prices fell again, breaking through the 120,000 - yuan integer mark, with an intraday decline of 1.15%. The main contract 2508 closed at 119,380. The total open interest of the index increased by 14,499 to 163,416 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, with enterprises mainly purchasing on demand. The spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 to 300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ore End**: The support at the ore end in the industrial chain is weakening. The premium of Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore has started to decline, and there is a further risk of ore price decline [8]. - **Ferronickel**: The overall bargaining range of ferronickel has shifted downward, ferronickel plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about the impact on the external demand of the stainless - steel end. During the traditional consumption off - season, inventory is high, and high summer temperatures further weaken downstream demand [8]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: On the 15th, the price of nickel sulfate dropped significantly by 200 to 27,220 yuan. The main reason is that the demand for energy batteries is in the off - season with limited support, and it is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Indonesian Nickel Production**: In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved quota for the first half of the year was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The main reason is the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Marketing Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio, and new export fees [9][11]. - **Battery Energy Storage Projects**: - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh, which is an important step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, which will help Scotland achieve its net - zero emissions and renewable energy consumption goals [11]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver usage is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency, which is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main 2508 contract slightly down 0.02% at 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25. After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The current automotive industry is in the off - season, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened. As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 15th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The main 2508 contract slightly decreased by 0.02% to 20,430. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,776 to 635,827 lots, and the 07 - 08 premium continued to narrow to 25 [8]. - After the decline in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved, and downstream procurement willingness increased compared to last week. Near the contract roll - over, the monthly spread fluctuations led to changes in the spot premium or discount. The spot premium in East China was 50, the discount in the Central Plains was - 90, and the premium in South China was 40 [8]. - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly following Shanghai aluminum. The 2511 contract closed flat compared to the previous day, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 480. In the current off - season of the automotive industry, with weakening demand and raw material supply shortages, cast aluminum is expected to continue to fluctuate under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the low negative spread structure of AD - AL will remain [8]. - China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, with a slight decline in the short term due to capacity replacement. Downstream, due to multiple negative factors such as insufficient orders in the traditional off - season, high aluminum prices, and high - temperature weather, the operating rate remains weak, and the off - season effect at the terminal is prominent. On Monday this week, the inventory suddenly increased by 35,000 tons to over 500,000 tons, and the price support weakened [8]. - As the off - season arrives, both the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum tend to be weak, while the smelting profit is high. The strategy is mainly to short - sell for hedging at high levels, and hold the AD - AL arbitrage [8]. 2. Industry News - As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the EU - US trade negotiation has entered a critical stage. The EU Commission spokesperson said on Monday that the negotiation has made progress and entered the "beginning of the final stage" and will at least reach a principled agreement. Previously, US President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods if there was no breakthrough in the EU - US trade negotiation before July 9. Currently, the US imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, and a 10% benchmark tariff on almost all other goods [9]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market. Local governments should take responsibility, make full use of the autonomy in real estate regulation policies, implement policies according to local conditions, and continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market [10]. - On July 3, PowerChina announced that its subsidiary signed a mining and transportation project contract for the KEBO bauxite in the TELIMELE MADINA DIAN area of Guinea with a contract value of approximately 5.063 billion yuan. The project is located in the MADINA DIAN area of Telimele Province, Kindia Region, Guinea. The main project content includes bauxite exploration, overburden stripping, waste ore excavation, mining, and transportation in a 204.37 - square - kilometer mining area. The expected mining volume is 28 million tons, and the total land transportation length is approximately 197 kilometers. The total project duration is about 72 months, with no warranty period [10]. - On July 3, Vedanta announced its key metal production in FY26Q1 (April - June 2025). The alumina production at Lanjigarh reached a record high of 587,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 36%. The quarterly electrolytic aluminum production was 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% and flat month - on - month [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term investment advice is to wait and see [12] 2) Core View of the Report - The futures market's irrational fluctuations continue. The current high - supply and high - inventory fundamentals are unfavorable for the long side, but the capital side and anti - involution policies are favorable for the long side [12] 3) Summary by Directory a. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures hit a low and then rebounded. The main contract dropped to 64,740 but turned positive in the afternoon. The total open interest decreased by 12,117 lots. The spot price center continued to rise, with electric carbon rising 250 to 64,900. The downstream's acceptance of current prices is low, and procurement demand is weak [12] - The price of Australian ore dropped slightly by 2.5 to 690 US dollars per ton. The profit per ton of external - purchase spodumene salt plants expanded to 571, and the loss of external - purchase mica salt plants narrowed to 6,818. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is expected to reach a new high [12] - Given the current situation, short - term investment advice is to wait and see [12] b. Industry News - Wealth Minerals (WML) and the Chilean Ollagüe indigenous community established a subsidiary, Kuska Minerals, to develop the Kuska lithium project. The new company's board includes community representatives, creating a new model for community participation in mining development [13] - The UK's Transport Secretary announced a £650 million subsidy plan on July 15, 2025. Eligible electric vehicles priced at £37,000 or less can get a maximum discount of £3,750 at the point of sale. The subsidy aims to support the goal of phasing out new gasoline and diesel vehicle sales by 2030 [13] - Ecocycle Group's EcoBatt company launched Australia's first professional lithium - battery discharge plant, providing a safe and sustainable solution for the disposal of end - of - life electric vehicle and energy - storage batteries [14]

每日报告 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 现货市场：7 月 15 日，主要铁矿石外盘报价环比前一交易日持平，青岛港主 要品位铁矿石价格较前一交易日持平。 技术面：铁矿石 2509 合约日线 KDJ 指标走势分化，K 值、J 值调头回落，D 值继续上行；铁矿石 2509 日线 MACD 指标红柱转为收窄。 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，美方表示将于中国会面，贸易风险有所缓和；国内方面，中 央财经委员会第六次会议提出推动落后产能有序退出，随后多家券商发布"反内 卷"相关研报，前期供应过剩的品种迎 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed a downward trend with the main contract closing at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots. The LME zinc inventory increased for two consecutive days, and the domestic social inventory increased as expected. The zinc ingot supply remained strong, while the consumption was squeezed by the off - season and weak exports. The market was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: Different contracts of Shanghai zinc (2507, 2508, 2509) all declined. The main contract 2508 opened at 22,110 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots, and the monthly spread C strengthened to 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME zinc inventory in Singapore increased by 5,200 tons to 118,600 tons. The domestic social inventory on Monday increased by 0.28 million tons to 9.31 million tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The import zinc concentrate index was 66.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate weekly processing fee rose to 3,800 yuan/ton. The overall zinc ingot supply was strong. The domestic consumption was affected by the off - season and weak exports, and the off - season inventory accumulation trend was gradually realized [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The market tested the support at the 22,000 yuan integer mark, and it was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions**: On July 15, 2025, in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, the prices of 0 and 1 zinc and their premiums to different contracts were reported. For example, in Shanghai, 0 zinc mainstream成交价 was between 22,325 - 22,530 yuan/ton, and the premium to the 2508 contract was different for different brands [8][17]. 3. Data Overview - **Relevant Charts**: The report included charts such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE monthly spread [13][16]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 16 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfuture ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The economic data released today basically met expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual growth target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows strong external demand driving production, while domestic consumption is weakening and the real estate sector is deeply adjusted, with the foundation for recovery still to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period. Monetary easing may pick up in October after the domestic economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Although the central bank is actively injecting funds, there is resistance to further decline in fund rates, and the short - term rates' failure to decline further limits the downward space for long - term rates [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 - trillion yuan outright repo to support tax - period liquidity and the economic data not exceeding expectations led to a full - line rebound in treasury bond futures. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined by 1 - 2bp, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 1.11bp to 1.6550% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funds loosened in the afternoon. There were 690 billion yuan of reverse repos and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, and the central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of reverse repo operations and 1.4 trillion yuan of outright repos. Short - term fund rates rose due to tax - period effects, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose [10] 2. Industry News - **Economic Data**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year in June. The per - capita disposable income of residents in the first half was 21840 yuan, a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.3% [13][14] - **Central Urban Work Conference**: Held from July 14 - 15, it deployed seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative, livable, green, resilient, civilized, and smart cities [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The data includes trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 15, such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. It also mentions the spread between main contracts across different maturities and varieties, as well as the trend of main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and changes in inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rates and inter - bank pledged repo rates [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean values) [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract price continued to be strong. The Si2509 closed at 8785 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, with a trading volume of 1.417 million lots and an open interest of 397,000 lots, a net decrease of 6,237 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The output in the second week of July remained above 70,000 tons, and the monthly output would remain above 310,000 tons. The demand increment in July was less than 20,000 tons. The futures warehouse receipts began to increase, and the short - term trend was mainly a strong oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures main contract price continued to be strong. The Si2509 closed at 8785 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, with a trading volume of 1.417 million lots and an open interest of 397,000 lots, a net decrease of 6,237 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 and Sichuan 553 was 8500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 and Xinjiang 421 was 8800 yuan/ton, and the price of Sichuan 421 was 9000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week of July, the industrial silicon output remained above 70,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest during the wet season made up for the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output would remain above 310,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production schedule in July increased to 100,000 - 110,000 tons, and the operating rate of organic silicon increased slightly, but the overall monthly demand increment was less than 20,000 tons. The futures warehouse receipts began to increase, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The previous warehouse receipts entered a continuous reduction range between 8800 - 9000. Currently, the industrial policy formed a bullish expectation, and the spot price increase continued to stimulate the futures price. The short - term trend was mainly a strong oscillation [4]. 3.4 Market News - On July 15, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,258 lots, a net increase of 165 lots compared with the previous trading day [5].

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 15 日，万得全 A 开盘后震荡回落，午后再度回升，收跌 0.20%，超 4000 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300 指数收盘上涨 0.03%,上证 50、中证 500、 中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.38%、0.03%、0.30%。指数期货表现弱于现货，IF、IH、 IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.13%、0.48%、0.07%、0.39%（按前一交易日收盘价为 基准计算）。 | 表1:股 ...