Report Information - Report Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, and aluminum industry chain varieties have entered a shock consolidation phase. Shanghai Aluminum 2509 has a narrow range, closing down 0.22% at 20,605. The total open interest of the index has decreased by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium is reported at 40; the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -510. Alumina has stopped falling, rising 1.01% to 3,307 compared to the previous day [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August. The ore price has stopped falling and recovered. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window remains open, and the demand for delivery products supports the spot price. However, the short-term anti-involution trading has temporarily cooled down, and alumina is adjusting at a high level [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains light. The absolute high price suppresses terminal consumption, while the aluminum smelting profit is high. One can appropriately participate in shorting at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.22% at 20,605, with the index total open interest decreasing by 12,072 to 615,012 lots, and the 08-09 premium at 40; the AD-AL negative spread was -510. Alumina rose 1.01% to 3,307 [8]. - Bauxite supply is loose, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension will gradually appear in August. The alumina futures-spot arbitrage window is open, but short-term anti-involution trading has cooled down [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is the off-season for the automotive industry, with weak demand and short scrap aluminum supply. Cast aluminum follows Shanghai Aluminum in a range, and the AD-AL maintains a low negative spread [8]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off-season, and the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is light. High prices suppress consumption, while smelting profit is high, and one can short at high levels [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, and the canceled agreement covered a mine with about 376 million tons of bauxite [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - Guinea has revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long-idle mine rights, and the government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April, and it has now resumed after consultations with the government [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The copper price is expected to face correction pressure, but there are still fundamental supporting factors, and the correction is still a buying opportunity [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper continued to trade below the trend line. Overnight, Chile hoped to exempt copper tariffs, leading to a sharp drop in US copper, and the COMEX - LME spread narrowed to 2542. As August 1 approaches, the market's attention to tariff details and implementation time has increased. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar and risk sentiment, with a neutral - weak impact on copper prices [10] - The spot copper showed resistance to decline, with the price dropping 50 to 79,025, and the spot premium rising 15 to 110. The near - month contract shifted to a slight contango structure. The LME 0 - 3 contango was 54.34. The LME market continued to be suppressed by US copper tariffs, but the overall intraday decline of Shanghai copper and London copper was limited, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood [10] - There are many macro - level events currently, such as the resumption of trade talks between Chinese and US senior officials, the end - of - month Fed interest - rate meeting, the end - of - month Chinese Politburo meeting, and US non - farm payroll data, increasing market uncertainty [10] 2. Industry News - Due to agricultural exports in Africa, the shipping industry has entered a peak congestion period, with ship bookings delayed until late August. There has been a certain degree of inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper at the Durban and Dar es Salaam ports [11] - Fuye Group plans to establish a subsidiary, Jiangxi Hefang Environmental Technology Co., Ltd., in Jiangxi Hengfeng Economic Development Zone to build a project with an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of recycled electrolytic copper [11] - On July 28, Chilean Finance Minister Mario Marcel said that the 50% tariff on copper has a chance of being exempted [11]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，中美第三轮磋商将在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行，中方在记者会上 表示，坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方的利益为代价达成交易，关注最终谈判结果。 国内方面，7 月 28 日，上海市经济信息化委印发 《上海市进一步扩大人工智能 应用的若干措施》，其中提到，降低智能算力使用成本，发放 6 亿元算力券，加 强算力调度平台建设，体系化支持企业研发和应用大模型，加快 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3045, the opening price was 3040, the highest price was 3041, the lowest price was 3013, the closing price was 3028, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 519,043, the open interest was 1,326,501, and the change in open interest was 45,129 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3001, the opening price was 2989, the highest price was 2992, the lowest price was 2963, the closing price was 2983, with a decline of 18 and a decrease rate of -0.60%. The trading volume was 1,013,822, the open interest was 1,468,086, and the change in open interest was -92,213 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3035, the opening price was 3027, the highest price was 3029, the lowest price was 3000, the closing price was 3018, with a decline of 17 and a decrease rate of -0.56%. The trading volume was 135,772, the open interest was 620,262, and the change in open interest was -4,598 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. The new - season US soybeans are growing well. Although the excellent - good rate dropped to 68% in the latest week, it is still at a relatively high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean - growing areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. The demand also has a certain improvement expectation. The US has reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US. With one week left before the final tariff increase, the market expects that other small countries may also reach agreements to purchase agricultural products from the US, slightly reducing the previous concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may still fluctuate in the bottom range [7]. - **Domestic market situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong in the early stage and has corrected in recent days. China still maintains a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans, and the import window for US soybeans is in the fourth quarter. As time approaches, the fact that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans was the main reason for the market's rise in the previous few days. China and the US will hold talks on Monday and Tuesday this week. With the US gradually reaching trade agreements with many countries recently, the market expects that the issue of US soybean import tariffs may be mentioned in the meeting. If the tariffs return to the previous level, combined with the current high soybean meal inventory, the market price may decline. However, this is only an expectation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the actual outcome of this week's negotiations, with increased short - term price volatility expected [7] Group 3: Industry News - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the previous week's rate was 68%, and the same period last year was 67%. The flowering rate of US soybeans was 76%, compared with 62% the previous week, 75% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 76%. The pod - setting rate was 41%, compared with 26% the previous week, 42% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42% [10] - **Argentina's export tax adjustment**: Argentine President Milei announced on Saturday that at the request of the country's agricultural department, the export withholding tax rates for poultry, beef, soybeans and their derivatives, corn, sorghum, and sunflowers will be reduced. The export withholding tax rate for beef and poultry meat will be reduced from 6.75% to 5%, for corn and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%, for sunflower seeds from 7.5% to 5.5%, for soybeans from 33% to 26%, and for soybean by - products from 31% to 24.5% [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal (yuan/ton), the basis of the Soybean Meal 09 contract (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 (yuan/ton), the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 (yuan/ton), the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][18]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, egg prices continued to rise and entered the summer peak season. This year's fundamentals are similar to 2017 and 2020, with ample supply and low spot prices during the plum - rain season. Summer peak seasons usually see significant price increases due to reduced egg production and increased travel. The price increase slope is steeper in high - supply years. The upward momentum weakened last Thursday and Friday, and the spot price dropped over the weekend. There may be a phased adjustment, but it's not the summer peak yet. Based on historical data, the expected average maximum and minimum spot prices in the production areas during the third - quarter peak season this year are 4.30 yuan/jin and 3.77 yuan/jin respectively. Futures are under pressure as the spot price stops rising, and short - term trading is expected to be volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2508, 2509, and 2510 all declined, with decreases of 0.86%, 0.31%, and 0.44% respectively. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 111,565, and the open interest was 250,165. The national egg spot price remained stable, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.21 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.45 yuan/jin [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Futures are under pressure as the spot price stops rising. Future focus is on the time of the second - wave price increase, and short - term trading is expected to be volatile [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of June, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.34 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Rearing Quantity**: In June, the monthly chick hatching volume of sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, a decrease from May but a slight increase compared to the same period in 2024. The chick rearing volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10]. - **Laying Hen Culling Volume**: As of the first three weeks of July 18, the national laying hen culling volumes were 15.05 million, 16.27 million, and 17.14 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to the expectation of the summer peak season. As of July 24, the average culling age of laying hens was 506 days [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly increased since mid - July, with the stock market strengthening and commodity prices warming up, which has put pressure on the bond market. However, the bond market has not experienced a panic - driven decline. The long - term bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged, and the decline in bond - allocation costs in the second half of the year may further expand the bond market space [11][12] Group 3: Market Conditions Market Quotes - On July 29, the afternoon recovery of the stock market and commodities suppressed the bond market, causing the decline of treasury bond futures to widen in the afternoon. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds all rose, with an increase of about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7475%, up 3.25bp [8][9] Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 117.870 | - 0.930 | - 0.78 | 140838 | 120771 | 488 | | TL2512 | 117.490 | - 1.000 | - 0.84 | 20938 | 39248 | 3664 | |... |... |... |... |... |... |... | [6] Capital Market - At the end of the month, the central bank made continuous net injections, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2148 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 2344 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates declined across the board, while medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10] Group 4: Industry News - On July 28, local time, the China - US economic and trade teams held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden. The National Conference on the Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments in Beijing deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year. The Market Supervision and Development Planning Symposium in Beijing put forward requirements for market supervision in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The CF40's macro - policy quarterly report for Q2 2025 pointed out that further counter - cyclical policies are needed to achieve the annual economic growth target [13][14] Group 5: Data Overview - The data overview includes treasury bond futures market (such as main contract spreads and trends), money market (such as SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates), and derivatives market (such as interest - rate swap curves) [15][23][33]

1. Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,350 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.35%. The trading volume was 654,844 lots, and the open interest was 276,734 lots, a net decrease of 2,334 lots [4] - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in the fourth week of July increased to 75,200 tons. Photovoltaic demand increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the safety accident in the silicone industry forced overall self - inspections, and the supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly [4] - Since the end of June, the first - stage rebound of industrial silicon's futures and spot prices was mainly affected by the news of production cuts by Xinjiang Hesheng, and the second stage was mainly driven by the "anti - involution" competition policy. Generally, the recent price fluctuations have little to do with the fundamentals. Currently, the spot price (553) range is still between 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the increase in warehouse receipts also occurred at high prices. Overall, the price will mainly fluctuate widely [4] 4. Market News - On July 29, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,082 lots, a net decrease of 31 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export of 56,500 tons [5] - On July 23, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January - June. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, a decrease of 162 hours compared with the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]

料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员 ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...