报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 1 日，万得全 A 开盘震荡运行后有所回落，午后震荡回升，收涨 0.27%， 近 5 成个股飘红，指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘 分别上涨 0.17%、0.21%、0.33%、0.28%，中小盘股表现更优。指数期货表现整体 弱于现货，IF、IH 主力合约分别收涨 0.01%、0.03%，IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.07%、0.25%（按前一交易日收盘价为基 ...

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 2.1 Market Quotes - **Domestic soybean meal futures**: For the contracts of soybean meal 2507, 2509, and 2511, the closing prices were 2822, 2961, and 2998 respectively, with changes of -21, +3, and +1, and percentage changes of -0.74%, +0.10%, and +0.03% [6]. - **US soybean futures**: The main contract of US soybean futures on the outer - market fluctuated around 1020 cents [6]. 2.2 USDA Reports - **Area report**: The estimated planting area of US soybeans in 2025 was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate. With an estimated harvest area of 82.6 million acres and a yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, the new - crop US soybean production is expected to be 4.337 billion bushels, a 0.7% decrease from this year's 4.366 billion bushels [6]. - **Inventory report**: The current US soybean inventory increased year - on - year, with the increase exceeding expectations. The combined effect of the area and inventory reports was neutral [6]. 2.3 Impact of Weather on Yields - **Current situation**: The current excellent - good rate of US soybeans is 66%, slightly lower than last year but still at a moderately high level. Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate above - average rainfall in most production areas, which is beneficial for potential yields [6]. - **Yield and inventory scenarios**: If the yield rises to 53.2 bushels per acre, the ending inventory will remain at 350 million bushels; if it drops below 51.9 bushels per acre, the ending inventory is expected to fall below 250 million bushels, tightening the supply - demand balance [6]. 2.4 Domestic Market Situation - There are rumors that China has started purchasing Argentine soybean meal, reducing its dependence on US soybeans in the fourth quarter [6]. 2.5 Operational Suggestions - Soybean meal pricing continues to follow CBOT soybeans. In the short term, it is more sensitive to weather. For fourth - quarter contracts, a cautious and bullish approach is recommended after price corrections, with risks related to weather improvement and tariff policies [6]. 3. Industry News 3.1 USDA Quarterly Inventory and Planting Area Survey Report - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop US soybeans was 1.01 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. Farm inventories were 412 million bushels, a 12% year - on - year decrease, and non - farm inventories were 596 million bushels, an 18% year - on - year increase [7]. - From March to May, soybean consumption was 903 million bushels, a 3% year - on - year increase. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in 2025 was 83.4 million acres, lower than the market expectation of 83.655 million acres and the March planting intention of 83.495 million acres [7]. 3.2 USDA Crop Growth Report - As of the week of June 29, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The emergence rate was 94%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, 5 - 9 contracts, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract [11][13][14]

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk quoted $2958 in mid - July, and most other shipping companies' quotes were concentrated in the range of $3300 - $3600, with a median of around $3400. However, the futures market has a weak expectation of price increases. The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract, implying that the market may skip the peak - season price increase and expect the freight rate to drop to a low level after the August peak. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. Currently, the 08 contract may be undervalued, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - month quote was $2958, and most other shipping companies' quotes were in the $3300 - $3600 range, with a median of about $3400. - Futures market: The market has a weak expectation of price increases. The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract. - Investment suggestions: Due to strong European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3.2行业要闻 - International news: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. There was no sign of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. - Shipping market news: From June 23 to 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with the comprehensive index slightly declining. European routes saw an increase in spot market booking prices due to good transportation demand; Mediterranean routes had weak fundamentals and slightly falling freight rates; North American routes had stable transportation demand but continued to see falling freight rates. - Geopolitical news: Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," but Iran said the Fordo nuclear facility was not severely damaged. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz. China strongly condemned the US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities [9][10] 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - SCFIS European route (basic ports): On June 30, 2025, it was 2123.24 points, up 186.1 points (9.6%) from June 23. - SCFIS US West route (basic ports): On June 30, 2025, it was 1619.19 points, down 464.27 points (-22.3%) from June 23 [12] 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - Provided the trading data of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts on July 1, including previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，1 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收阴，最 高 13940 元/吨，最低 13840 元/吨，收盘报 13865 元/吨，较昨跌 0.18%，指数总 持仓减少 3031 手至 161051 手。现货方面， ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 2 日 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 油） 021-60635738 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月1日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.400 | 120.450 | 120.740 | 120.700 | 0.340 | 0.28 | 75 ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员： ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 二、行业要闻 三、数据概览 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 02, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Polysilicon [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is currently in a state of price range - bound oscillation. The market lacks a significant change in fundamentals, with supply - side production cuts difficult to implement, and the pressure of decreased installations gradually spreading upstream in the industry chain. The price of the polysilicon futures contract has rebounded with reduced positions due to the resonance of a sharp rebound in new - energy commodities, and after the basis repair, it has entered a phase of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract oscillated within a range. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 32,700 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%. The trading volume was 261,490 lots, and the open interest was 61,196 lots, with a net decrease of 5,137 lots [4]. - **Outlook**: The average transaction price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 34,400 yuan, and that of N - type dense material was 31,900 yuan, showing stable weekly prices. The fundamentals of polysilicon remained unchanged, with supply - side production cuts hard to implement. The pressure of decreased installations was spreading upstream, and there was obvious inventory accumulation in battery cells and components. The previous sharp price decline reflected overly pessimistic expectations, and recently, due to the resonance of a sharp rebound in new - energy commodities, the futures price rebounded with reduced positions (a reduction of 18,416 lots from the bottom). After the basis repair, the price entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [4]. 3.2 Market News - As of July 01, 2025, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In May 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations were approximately 92GW, a year - on - year increase of 383.2% and a month - on - month increase of over 100%, reaching a record high for the same period. From January to May, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [5]. - As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative national power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%. From January to May, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,249 hours, a decrease of 132 hours compared to the same period last year. The investment in power source projects of major national power generation enterprises was 257.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the investment in power grid projects was 204 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [5].