Report Information - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract continued to be strong The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 621,314 lots and an open interest of 172,057 lots, a net increase of 16,518 lots [4] - Despite signs of resistance such as exchange limits and a sharp decline in trading volume last week, policy support since last Friday continued to stimulate strong expectations in the commodity market The commodity index filled the gap in early April and strengthened collectively The main polycrystalline silicon contract opened higher and then fluctuated strongly, highlighting the game between policy and capital The spot price continued to show a large range difference, and the transaction range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was between 40,000 and 49,000 yuan, mainly because each enterprise quoted comprehensively based on its own full cost The supply-demand fundamentals have not improved and are not the main driving logic at present The futures price fluctuated strongly with reference to the spot price range as market sentiment fermented under policy stimulus [4] Market News - On July 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In the third week of July, the transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4% The transaction price range of N-type granular silicon was 40,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [5] - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Xie Shaofeng, the Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced the industrial and information technology development in the first half of 2025 Work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are即将 to be introduced The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust their structures, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The soda ash market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but there is still inventory accumulation. The future demand side is bearish, and the overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk trend is strongly volatile following the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish due to the supply - demand contradiction [8][9]. - The glass market faces pressure from high inventory and slow capacity reduction. The downstream real estate has not improved substantially. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **July 21 Market Data**: The main futures contract SA509 opened high and closed high, with a closing price of 1,295 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan/ton or 5.62%, and a daily reduction of 297,887 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week of July 17, the weekly output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a 5.48% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase, with high - level inventory and a slowdown in growth [8]. - **Analysis**: Summer maintenance device recovery led to increased production and inventory accumulation. The demand side is bearish due to the expected reduction in photovoltaic glass production. The overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk follows the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish [9]. Glass - **Supply**: Affected by the planned production reduction of photovoltaic glass enterprises, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the supply of float glass has also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [10][11]. - **Downstream**: The domestic real estate completion link has not improved substantially, and the downward trend continues [11]. - **Analysis**: The anti - involution policy expectation has strengthened market confidence. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [11]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides charts of soda ash and glass active contract price trends, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources including Wind and iFind [13][16][17]

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and in Q3, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: US economic data support the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts, which pressures gold prices. But the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overseas economic recovery weaken the US dollar's safe - haven demand, supporting gold prices. London gold oscillates between $3300 - 3380 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes rises. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policy. It is recommended to hold a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support it. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. Short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US retail sales in June rebounded more than expected, and initial jobless claims reached the lowest level since April, providing reasons for the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts [17]. - The US will impose a 93.5% preliminary anti - dumping duty on anode - grade graphite imported from China [17]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Daly expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, Waller believes the Fed should cut rates at the end of the month, while Kugler thinks the Fed should not cut rates for some time [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The economic data released this week is basically in line with expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows that external demand drives strong production, while domestic consumption weakens marginally and the real estate sector undergoes in - depth adjustment. The foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period, and the possibility of further monetary easing may increase in October after the economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, the tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Last week, the money market showed signs of bottoming out and rising, and this week it will face the pressure of the large tax - payment month in July. Despite the central bank's active injection of funds, there is still resistance for interest rates to continue to decline, and the lack of further decline in short - term interest rates limits the downward space for long - term interest rates [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With a loosening money market and a quiet news environment, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range and most closed higher. The yields of major on - the - run interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market changed slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year on - the - run treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.660%, up 0.1bp [8][9] - **Money Market**: With the central bank's support, the impact of the tax - payment period weakened and the money market loosened. There were 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index declined, indicating a缓和 in the tight money situation. Short - term interest rates also declined slightly. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 0.5bp to 1.46%, the 7 - day rate fell 0.7bp to around 1.52%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell 10bp to 1.53% [10] 2. Industry News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing after a 10 - year interval. President Xi Jinping attended and delivered an important speech, guiding urban work in the new era. Urbanization should follow economic and social development laws and avoid being rushed. Urban ecological construction requires a long - term perspective [13] - Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to study measures for strengthening the domestic economic cycle, heard reports on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry and the preliminary rectification of problems found in the audit of the 2024 central budget implementation, and reviewed and approved a draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [13] - Wang Huning, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, stated that comprehensively expanding domestic demand is necessary for long - term and sustainable economic development and to meet people's growing needs. More in - depth research results should be produced and applied [13] - Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, wrote in Qiushi magazine that high - level opening - up should be used to expand new space for Chinese - style modernization, including promoting higher - quality, higher - standard, more inclusive, and more secure opening - up [14] - The European Commission announced a new budget proposal for 2028 - 2034, totaling 2 trillion euros, a significant increase from the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the Commission proposed several ways to raise more funds, such as taxing companies with an annual net turnover of over 100 million euros in the EU, which has been questioned by some member states [14] - US President Trump said he has no current plan to take action against Fed Chairman Powell and is unlikely to fire him unless fraud is proven. He also mentioned that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are candidates for Fed positions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on July 17, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts such as TL2509, T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Key Points Report's Core View - The spot price of eggs is expected to rise quickly in the first wave, and then be adjusted according to market conditions. Although the fundamental direction is bearish, short - chasing is not recommended. Traders can consider long positions in the 09 contract for band trading and use put options to hedge risks. There is no sign of a significant trend - based rebound for now [8] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The national egg price rose today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract fell 0.28%. The 08 contract of eggs closed at 3462, up 5 or 0.14%; the 09 contract closed at 3595, down 10 or - 0.28%; the 10 contract closed at 3371, down 48 or - 1.40% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to whether the spot price has a continuous upward trend next week. Long positions can be established in the 09 contract for band trading. Risk - averse traders can buy put options to hedge the risk of the spot price not rising. Adjust positions in real - time based on the spot price increase and basis [8] Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in the country was about 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [9] - **Chick Hatchlings**: The monthly hatchling volume of laying hens in sample enterprises in June was about 40.75 million, slightly less than that in May and slightly higher than the same period in 2024 [9] - **Chicken Culling**: The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to the expectation of the summer peak season. As of July 10, the average culling age was 504 days, 2 days earlier than last week and 8 days earlier than last month [10]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Industry: Pulp 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The absolute price of pulp is at a relatively low level. The downside space due to weak fundamentals is limited, and a new round of price increase depends on the improvement of terminal demand and the restoration of industry profits. In the short term, pulp prices will maintain a wide - range shock at a low level [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The pre - settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5234 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5264 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.46%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5070 - 6700 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The quoted price of Shandong Yinxing was 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply - side Information**: Chile's Arauco announced the July quotation. Yinxing's transactions were completed with no new offers, and the net price of Uruguay's broad - leaf pulp New Star was 500 US dollars/ton. According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in May decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease from January to April was 0.6%. According to Europulp data, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports in June increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; the consumption of wood pulp in Europe decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. In June, China's total pulp imports were 3 million and 30 thousand tons, an increase of 0.5% month - on - month and 16.3% year - on - year. As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and only the inventory at Gaolan Port decreased compared with the previous week, with a stable overall shipment speed [8] - **Demand - side Information**: Downstream terminal orders were insufficient, and the overall price of base paper was stable with individual declines [8] 3.2 Industry News - On July 11, the second - phase chemical mechanical pulp project's No. 2 line of Liansheng Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation. It took only 4 hours and 8 minutes to connect the entire system from feeding. After 20 hours of system optimization after startup, the quality of the main pulp reached the pulp - using requirements of the paper machine production line. The chemical mechanical pulp of the No. 2 line has been used in the PM1 white cardboard production line of Zhangpu Base. The successful commissioning of the No. 2 line marks a major progress in the annual production of 3.9 million tons of forest - pulp - paper integration in Zhangpu Base and further strengthens Liansheng's raw material self - supply flexibility [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price spreads, needle - broadleaf price spreads, inter - delivery spreads, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and spreads of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and spreads of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][26][28][30]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel Market Performance: On the 17th, Shanghai nickel was under pressure at the 120,000 integer mark and operated weakly. The main contract 2508 closed down 0.6% at 119,880. The total index position increased by 4,627 to 155,945 lots. [9] - Spot Market: In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the spot supply was sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton. [9] - Market Outlook: The support at the mine end in the front - end of the industrial chain has weakened. The overall bargaining range of nickel iron has moved down, and some nickel iron plants have cut production. The sulfuric acid nickel price may rise from a low level. Currently, all links in the nickel industrial chain are weak, and the macro - sentiment temporarily dominates the market. Wait for a lower price to go long. [9] Group 3: Industry News - Indonesia Nickel Industry: In 2025, Indonesia's actual nickel ore production was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota in the first half of the year was 364.1 million tons. The industry is facing cost pressure due to policies and taxes. The APNI is working on ESG norms to enhance its international reputation. [10][11] - Bulgaria Battery Storage System: Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is a step towards its 10,000 MWh battery storage capacity target. [11] - Nickel - based Solar Cell: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs while maintaining high efficiency. [11] - UK Battery Storage Project: Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the region achieve its net - zero and renewable energy goals. [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Core View - The Shanghai copper market continued its weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment showed an external weakness and internal strength situation. There was no obvious change in the fundamentals. The copper price was in a volatile range as both the macro and fundamental factors provided no clear directional guidance [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market continued to show a weak and volatile trend. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated sharply due to Trump's remarks about the Fed chair. Domestically, the premier's meeting on strengthening the domestic market circulation policy made related industrial products rise. The inventory in China decreased by 0.43 million tons this week, the 08 - 09 spread of the Shanghai copper market turned to contango, and the lme0 - 3 contango expanded to 64. The support from the spot market in both Shanghai and London continued to weaken [11]. 2. Industry News - Rio Tinto's copper production in Q2 2025 was 22.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9%. Its annual production guidance for 2025 was 78 - 85 million tons, and the output was expected to reach the upper limit of the guidance [12]. - The brass rod market was under pressure. Small enterprises mainly produced continuous casting rods for the real - estate sector, facing insufficient demand and production cuts. Large enterprises had more orders for extrusion rods, but small enterprises had difficulty entering this field due to high production thresholds [12].