Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货集运指数日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:29
Report Information - Report Title: "Industry - Container Shipping Index Daily Report" [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - The spot price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. The 08 contract in the futures market is currently below 1800 points and lower than the 06 contract, potentially indicating that the market is skipping the peak - season price increase and expecting low prices after the August peak. Considering the strong export demand in Europe, stable shipping capacity supply, and stable quotes and container volumes, the peak - season price increase is difficult to be falsified in the short term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month traditional off - season provides opportunities for short - selling and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: At the end of June, the price increase was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. In July, Maersk's mid - July quote was $2958, and most other shipping companies' quotes were in the $3300 - $3600 range, with a median of around $3400 [8] - Futures Market: The 08 contract has fallen below 1800 points and is lower than the 06 contract, implying that the market may skip the peak - season price increase and expect low prices after the August peak. The 08 contract may be undervalued, and there are opportunities for short - selling in October and 08 - 10 positive spreads [8] 2. Industry News - Geopolitical News: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose [9] - Shipping Market News: From June 23 - 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different trends in long - haul routes. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on June 27 was 1861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous period. European routes' prices rose, Mediterranean routes' prices fell slightly, and North American routes' prices continued to decline [9][10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The SCFIS European route index increased by 9.6% from June 23 to June 30, while the US West route index decreased by 22.3% [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes: Provided trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European line futures main and sub - main contracts, global container shipping capacity, etc. [13][17]
建信期货国债日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:23
行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 每日报告 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# | | 表1:国债期货6月30日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.940 | 120.760 | 120.420 | 120.400 | -0.520 | -0.43 | ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:23
多晶硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 07 月 01 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) ...
建信期货豆粕日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:18
Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - Short - term rebound of soybean meal futures may face profit - taking pressure. However, based on the elasticity of future US weather and the expectation of higher costs for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, the fourth - quarter contracts should be treated with cautious optimism after corrections. The risk factors are the improvement of weather conditions and tariff situations [6]. - The supply pressure causes the US soybean futures to run weakly, but considering the positive effects of biodiesel policies, there is expected to be support at the bottom, waiting for the data guidance from the end - of - June report [6]. - The trading volume of soybean meal has been good since June. When prices are low, downstream buyers are willing to make safety purchases, but when prices rise, it's difficult to see continuous high - volume trading. The price of soybean meal will still be mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: - For the soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased. The trading volume of 2509 was 964,679, and its closing price was 2961, with a gain of 0.78%. The trading volume of 2511 was 72,620, and its closing price was 2998, with a gain of 0.77%. The trading volume of 2507 was 18,510, and its closing price was 2855, with a gain of 1.64% [6]. - The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1025 cents. After a rebound due to the positive news of US soybean oil, the price dropped significantly last week because of the good growth of new US soybeans and sufficient rainfall in the main production areas [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Futures operation should be cautiously bullish on the fourth - quarter contracts after corrections, considering the future US weather and the expected increase in the cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report**: As of the week ending June 19, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 55.91 million tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in exports for the current market year was 40.29 million tons, and for the next market year was 15.62 million tons. The export shipment was 26.56 million tons [9]. - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending June 24, about 12% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 13% the previous week and up from 6% in the same period last year [9]. - **EU Import Data**: As of June 22, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.76 million tons (compared to 3.41 million tons last year), soybean imports were 13.79 million tons (compared to 12.89 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 18.88 million tons (compared to 14.93 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 7.16 million tons (compared to 5.59 million tons last year) [10].
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:17
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩 ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:11
工业硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 07 月 01 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:54
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
锌期货日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:20
Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overseas refinery strikes have tightened global refined zinc production, leading to a continuous decline in LME inventories below 120,000 tons, approaching the inventory low in April this year. The external market discount has rapidly converged, driving up the Shanghai zinc price. However, the domestic zinc ore imports remain at a high level, increasing the supply pressure of zinc ingots. The downstream primary consumption sector's开工 rate is lower than the same period in previous years, and the finished product inventory has slightly accumulated. The market is in a state of high-level consolidation, waiting for the right entry opportunity [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan, or 0.31%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 2,242 lots to 140,186 lots. The external market drove up the Shanghai zinc price, but the domestic supply pressure increased, and the downstream consumption was weak [7]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic zinc spot market was generally weak. The Shanghai market's premium to the 07 contract was 60 yuan/ton, the Tianjin market was at a discount of 80 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market reported a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 08 contract [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Price Information**: On June 30, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were concentrated between 22,470 - 22,580 yuan/ton, and the prices varied in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong [8][9]. - **Premium Information**: The premium situation in different regions also varied. For example, the Shanghai market's premium to the 07 contract was 60 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong market reported a premium of 50 - 90 yuan/ton to the 08 contract [7][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides charts of the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two markets, and SHFE's monthly spread, but no specific data analysis is given in the text [13][14].
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:10
油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:10
Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - **Market Analysis**: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Policy**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]