行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | 合約 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 成高价 : | 或低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌:涨跌幅 | | 成交量 : | 特企业 | 特色重变化: | | ...

fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb. ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The futures market of polyolefin opened low and fluctuated upwards, but the market sentiment was not significantly boosted. The cost - end disturbance weakened, and the market returned to its own supply - demand logic. The supply - side pressure from new production capacity continued to be released, and the demand entered the off - season in July. The supply - demand relationship tended to deteriorate, and the single - side market showed a weak downward trend [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The main contract of LLDPE (L2509) opened low, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed up at 7288 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (0.72%), with a trading volume of 270,000 lots and a decrease in open interest by 14,574 to 443,293 lots. The main contract of PP closed at 7072 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.34%), with a decrease in open interest by 12,023 lots to 411,306 lots. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was not strong, and terminal procurement was mainly for rigid demand [5][6] - The weekly maintenance volume of PP/PE increased, but the pressure on the supply side from new production capacity such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's fourth - line PP and Yulong Petrochemical continued to be released. In July, the off - season characteristics were more obvious, and the downstream operating rate was mainly supported by order execution [6] 2. Industry News - On July 2, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.99%) from the previous working day, compared with 750,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - The PE market price continued to decline. The LLDPE price in North China was 7140 - 7380 yuan/ton, 7300 - 7700 yuan/ton in East China, and 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton in South China [7] - The propylene price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea was stable with minor fluctuations, and the mainstream price was 6525 yuan/ton. The downstream was in a wait - and - see state [7] - The PP market continued to decline weakly, with prices dropping by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the overall market transaction was poor [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, and the settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract, but no specific data analysis was provided [12][16]

021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - After the month - end, the funds continued to be loose, and treasury bond futures recovered and rose. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end declined by 1 - 2bp, and the long - end fluctuated less than 1bp. The funds became looser after the quarter - end, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [8][9][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures recovered and rose due to loose funds. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with the short - end down 1 - 2bp and the long - end fluctuating less than 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield reported 1.6385%, down 0.35bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: After the quarter - end, funds became looser, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. There were 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2668 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank fund rates declined across the board [10] - **Conclusion**: In July, short - term bond varieties in the bond market may have more certainty. Although the marginal slowdown of export rush still supports the economy, the progress of tariff negotiations is slow but there is no further conflict escalation. The tone of the Politburo meeting in July may continue that of April, and the policy stimulus may be limited. The supply pressure in July has increased significantly, but there is a possibility that the central bank will restart treasury bond trading, which may support the stable and loose funding situation. The short - term 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform relatively better [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Minister of Finance called on developed countries to fulfill official development assistance commitments and climate financing obligations, improve the voice of developing countries in the international financial architecture, and promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [13] - Sichuan Province issued measures to support urban village and dilapidated building renovation projects to seek central budget investment and special bonds, and strive for central budget investment and ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds [13] - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded, indicating that China's economic prosperity remained in the expansion range [13] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and improving its forward - looking, targeted, and effectiveness. It also proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land [14] - A central bank monetary policy committee member said that virtual assets, digital assets, and traditional financial assets will coexist in the long term. Digital assets are a major development trend, and there is a possibility of issuing stablecoins pegged to the offshore RMB in Hong Kong [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 2, including contract prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different contracts and the trend of the main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report shows the changes in SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repo weighted interest rate, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repo rate [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report includes the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 3, 2025 [2] - Report type: Crude Oil Daily [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market performance**: WTI's opening price was $64.96, closing at $65.53, with a high of $65.98, a low of $64.67, a daily increase of 0.65%, and trading volume of 17.29 million lots; Brent's opening price was $66.58, closing at $67.28, with a high of $67.50, a low of $66.34, a daily increase of 0.81%, and trading volume of 27 million lots; SC's opening price was 503.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 498.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 503.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 495.6 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 0.24%, and trading volume of 13.75 million lots [6] - **Supply - demand analysis**: In the supply side, in the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned increase. There's a possibility of OPEC+ further increasing production. In the demand side, due to the suspension of China - US tariff disputes, crude oil demand expectations improved, but considering the supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the market will maintain a pattern of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year [7] - **Operational suggestion**: Oil prices are gradually returning to fundamental - driven, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate. It's advisable to wait and see [7] Group 3: Industry News - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not have a significant reaction as market expectations have shifted towards this outcome [8] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June increased by 450,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 6.33 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level in over a year [8] - Kazakhstan's crude oil production in June increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 1.88 million barrels per day, hitting a historical high. Its first - half production increased by 13% year - on - year to 1.79 million barrels per day [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts [10][11][18]

多晶硅日报 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 07 月 03 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷, ...

有色金属研究团队 行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 沪铝日内增仓上行，主力 2508 小幅收涨 0.41%至 20635，指数总持仓增加 21366 至 680494 手，07-08 升水 165。现货市场成交惨淡，尽管铝锭库存处于低 位，但已出现小幅累库态势，现货市场畏高情绪浓厚，下游需求较差减产较多， 接货意愿低，市场多贴水成交，日内，华东升水 40，中原贴水-180，华南升水-45。 铸造铝合金跟随 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Shanghai nickel remained strong above the 120,000 mark, with the total index position decreasing by 3,110 to 149,735 lots. The spot premium adjusted slightly, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,600 yuan/ton and the domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel spot premium at -100 - 400 yuan/ton. The support from the ore end declined, and the subsequent ore price may weaken further. The nickel iron plant still faced pressure, and the nickel iron price was in a dilemma. The nickel salt end also performed poorly. Benefiting from the warming macro - atmosphere and the high elasticity of nickel prices at low levels, Shanghai nickel returned above the 120,000 mark, but the rebound space of nickel prices may be limited. Previous long positions could be appropriately reduced, and a rolling operation strategy should be maintained [9]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai nickel remained strong above 120,000, with the total index position decreasing by 3,110 to 149,735 lots. The spot premium adjusted slightly, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,600 yuan/ton and the domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel spot premium at -100 - 400 yuan/ton [9]. - Ore End: The support from the Indonesian nickel ore end decreased. The HMA decline in the first half of July led to a downward adjustment of the nickel ore benchmark price HPM, and the domestic red - soil nickel ore premium also loosened. The subsequent ore price may weaken further [9]. - Nickel Iron: Nickel iron plants faced pressure, with high costs and weakening prices. Stainless steel plants were sluggish, with reduced production and high inventories, only maintaining rigid demand for raw materials. The nickel iron price was in a dilemma [9]. - Nickel Salt: The price of nickel sulfate has not stopped falling [9]. - Operation Suggestions: Due to the warming macro - atmosphere and the high elasticity of nickel prices at low levels, Shanghai nickel returned above 120,000. However, considering the weak performance of each link in the industrial chain, the rebound space of nickel prices may be limited. Previous long positions could be appropriately reduced, and a rolling operation strategy should be maintained [9]. 2. Industry News - Bulgaria: Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. It was developed by Advance Green Energy AD and completed in six months with local government support, breaking the previous domestic record [10][11]. - Turkey: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact and almost no silver, with silver usage below 0.5 mg/W, achieving almost the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells. This innovation can significantly reduce production costs [11]. - UK: Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. It is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW. The project will help Scotland achieve its energy and emission reduction goals [11].

021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 7 月 2 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：7月1日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 2997 ...