Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract at 1025 cents. Due to good weather and a slightly bearish USDA report in July, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week and tested the previous low of 1000 cents again technically. Subsequently, positive news emerged. The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's purchase of $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, stimulating the expectation of new - season US soybean exports. However, CBOT soybeans are still expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with an unexpectedly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, 4% higher than the previous week and at a very high level in the past five years. Only 7% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some leeway. The expectation of a bumper harvest is gradually strengthening. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to have no sustained improvement. [6] - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. Firstly, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have continued to rise, driving the bullish sentiment in the whole market. Secondly, the fundamental situation of soybean meal itself is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started to book ships for new - season US soybeans in the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. The price of CBOT soybeans has recovered this week, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the import cost has gradually risen. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy. The risk lies in whether the future Sino - US peace talks will bring good news, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products. [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3091, the lowest price was 3068, the closing price was 3087, with a rise of 17 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 292,691, the open interest was 1,155,465, and the open interest change was 8,587. For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3060, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3046, the closing price was 3069, with a rise of 26 and a rise rate of 0.85%. The trading volume was 972,455, the open interest was 1,885,694, and the open interest change was - 21,481. For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3083, the opening price was 3098, the highest price was 3108, the lowest price was 3083, the closing price was 3105, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 150,810, the open interest was 632,481, and the open interest change was - 9,420. [6] - **External Market Situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, and CBOT soybeans were affected by weather, USDA report, trade agreements, and China's purchasing situation. [6] - **Domestic Market Situation**: Domestic soybean meal was strong due to market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month soybean meal should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US relations. [6] 2. Industry News - **CFTC Position Report**: As of the week ending July 15, for CBOT soybeans, the long positions increased by 4,268 lots to 186,780 lots, and the short positions increased by 27,042 lots to 171,486 lots; for CBOT soybean oil, the long positions increased by 5,345 lots to 135,739 lots, and the short positions increased by 382 lots to 71,614 lots; for CBOT soybean meal, the long positions increased by 13,201 lots to 128,060 lots, and the short positions increased by 7,342 lots to 207,802 lots; for ICE rapeseed, the long positions decreased by 15,049 lots to 133,601 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,344 lots to 33,399 lots. [7] - **Rapeseed Growth Data**: As of the week ending July 16, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 60.65%. As of the week ending July 15, the excellent - good rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 64.4%, up from 63.7% the previous week. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages, and the fungicide spraying work was still in progress. [9] 3. Data Overview - Data includes various charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [15][17][14]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly. The main October contract closed up 0.3% to 16.79 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract closed up 0.8% to $487.70 per ton. The news that Coca - Cola was called on by the US President to resume using sucrose as a raw material stimulated the sugar price to some extent, but Coca - Cola's response was not positive. The main logic supporting the strength of raw sugar was the poor production data in Brazil. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The 09 contract closed at 5,839 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan or 0.19%, with an increase of 7,069 contracts in positions. The domestic spot prices in the producing areas rose slightly, with the price in Nanning at 6,100 yuan and in Kunming at 5,860 yuan. Zhengzhou sugar followed the rhythm of raw sugar. Fundamentally, the import volume increased in June, and the pressure of processed sugar would increase later. Although the domestic commodity market generally rose recently due to the anti - involution theme, Zhengzhou sugar was basically unaffected [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - **Import Data**: In June 2025, China imported 11.55 tons of syrup and premixed powder (tax - included tariff numbers 1702.90, 2106.906), a year - on - year decrease of 10.35 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 45.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.24 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the total import was 109.83 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.95 tons. In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39.23 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 105.08 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 25.12 tons, a decline of 19.29%. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 251.26 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 64.93 tons, a decline of 20.54% [9] - **Production Data**: In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 254.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%; from January to June, it was 1,433 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. In June 2025, China's beverage output was 1,842.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to June, it was 9,308.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [9] - **Shipping Data**: As of the week ending July 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 77, compared with 90 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 309.43 tons (the quantity of high - grade raw sugar was 304.18 tons), compared with 368.55 tons in the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 59.12 tons, a decline of 16.04%. The quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 239.61 tons, and at Paranagua Port was 45.12 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - **Figures**: The report includes figures such as the spot price trend, the basis of the 2509 contract, the SR9 - 1 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, the Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading volume and positions of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [15][18][20] - **Table**: The table shows the trading volume, position changes, and other data of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou sugar futures market [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio also increase the volatility of gold prices. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Weak US real estate data and domestic political risks pushed the US dollar index down to around 98.3. Potential candidates for the Fed chair support rapid rate cuts, providing potential support for precious metals. London gold rose slightly to around $3370 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes strengthened due to anti - involution expectations. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. This week, focus on the preliminary July PMI values in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Cooling international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation needs, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. The report believes that the long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and monetary system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also increase volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - In Japan's Sunday election, the ruling coalition is likely to lose control of the Senate, weakening Prime Minister Ishiba's power [17]. - G20 finance leaders emphasized central bank independence and cooperation in a joint communiqué, highlighting global economic uncertainties [17]. - The US House China Special Committee chair opposes resuming the sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China, and Nvidia has informed Chinese customers of limited supply and no plan to restart production [17]. - US single - family home starts in June dropped to an 11 - month low, with a 4.6% decline and building permits down 3.7%, indicating a potential contraction in residential investment in Q2 [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season is approaching, and the SCFIS has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared to last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between the 08 and 10 contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the shipping season is about to appear. The SCFIS has dropped to around 2400 points. Most shipping companies have slightly lowered their quotes for late July, and the quotes for August from some airlines remain at the late - July level. Historically, the peak usually appears in the third week of July, and freight rates in late August will return to the early - July level. The 08 contract's discount space is limited. Focus on shorting opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage between 08 - 10 contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 14 to 18, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade increased steadily, which will support the export container shipping market in the long term [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose, and the German index reached a new high since February 2022. However, Trump's tariff announcement and the EU's counter - measures bring uncertainty. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation is in sync with European routes, and the spot market booking price has slightly declined. On July 18, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports decreased by 5.2% [9]. - **North American Routes**: In June, the US CPI increased, and import prices showed upward pressure. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports decreased by 2.4% and 13.4% respectively [10]. - **Israeli Ports**: Due to the blockade by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, the Eilat Port in Israel has stopped operations, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and cause security concerns [10]. - **Trade Policies**: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may reach a trade agreement with India soon. The US has also set different tariff rates for other countries [10]. - **Red Sea Situation**: The Yemeni Houthi rebels have prohibited ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships have been sunk in the Red Sea [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On July 21, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 0.9% compared to July 14, while the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 2.8% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on July 21, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and trading volumes [6].

Industry Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Highlights 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,292 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,334 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,220 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,950 yuan/ton [7]. - Chile's Arauco announced its July offer. Yinxing had no new offers as all transactions were completed, and the net price of Uruguay's hardwood pulp, New Star, was $500/ton [7]. - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in May was 1.69 million tons, a 4.4% increase month - on - month and an 8.2% decrease year - on - year [7]. - According to UTIPULP data, the European wood pulp inventory in June increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [7]. - China's total pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month and a 16.1% increase year - on - year [7]. - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.08% month - on - month, changing from an increase to a decrease [7]. - Affected by the off - season atmosphere, the prices of downstream paper products were weak. With limited changes in fundamentals, pulp fluctuated and rose slightly in the short term, driven by the commodity market atmosphere [7] 2. Industry News - The 18,000 - ton cardboard and 16,000 - ton carton project of Dongsheng Paper Products Co., Ltd. in Guitou Town, Ruyuan County, Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province, successfully completed its trial production. The company is a Hong Kong - funded enterprise and the only corrugated cardboard manufacturer in Shaoguan [8]. - The project won the "Representative Project of Guangdong - Hong Kong Social Investment and Development" at the 2025 Hong Kong - Macau Spring Reception. With a total investment of 150 million yuan, covering 56 mu and a planned construction area of 37,000 square meters, it is expected to be put into production this year, with an annual production capacity of about 30,000 tons of corrugated cardboard, an expected annual output value of about 160 million yuan, and about 100 job opportunities [8] 3. Data Overview The report includes various data charts related to pulp, such as pulp futures prices, import prices, inventory levels in different regions (including Europe and China), and prices of related paper products, with data sources from Wind, PPPC, UTIPULP, and other institutions [7][27][29]

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 22 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - In the peak season, the single - week crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, but there are no new negatives in the market. Oil prices are still supported and are expected to have an upward space. It is necessary to continue to track consumption and Saudi supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $67.35, closing at $66.03, with a high of $68.16, a low of $64.38, a decline of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 118.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $70.50, closing at $69.23, with a high of $71.53, a low of $67.71, a decline of 1.98%, and a trading volume of 177.53 million lots. SC's opening price was 517.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 512.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.4, a low of 511.3, a decline of 3.70%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The three major institutions' July reports show little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, except for Kazakhstan, seven other countries have completed compensatory production cuts according to OPEC. There are differences in the prediction of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production among the three institutions this month. IEA expects Saudi production to reach 9.8 million barrels per day, while OPEC and EIA expect around 9.3 million barrels per day. High - frequency data shows that US refined oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, and the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel has declined [6] 3.2 Industry News - Iran has no plan to negotiate with the US currently [8] - Turkey hopes to start a new and dynamic stage for the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline [8] - Barclays maintains its forecast of Brent crude oil price at $72 per barrel in 2025 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [8] - The EU cancels the license for the Czech Republic to import oil from Russia [8] - The UK sanctions Russia's oil export and intelligence agencies, and together with the EU, lowers the "price cap" of Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts, with data sources from CFTC, EIA, wind, Bloomberg, etc. [10][11][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline across the board [8]. - The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have all increased, with short-term yields fluctuating within a narrow range and long-term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.675%, up 1.1bp [9]. - The capital market is stable. There were 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities today, and the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short-term capital interest rates have declined across the board, while the medium and long-term capital remains stable [10]. - The recent policy and economic data have provided limited guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, while the rising market risk appetite has suppressed the bond market. The short-term market still lacks a clear direction [11]. - In the long term, considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand in the fundamentals, as external demand risks become more prominent in the third quarter, the results of tariff negotiations become clear, and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October. However, if the anti-involutionary measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the risk of a reversal in the bond market trend needs to be considered [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, leading to a decline in all treasury bond futures. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have increased, with short - term yields fluctuating narrowly and long - term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp [8][9]. - **Capital Market**: The capital market is stable. With 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short - term capital interest rates have declined across the board, and the medium and long - term capital remains stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The short - term market lacks a clear direction. In the long term, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October, but the risk of a bond market trend reversal needs to be considered if domestic demand and inflation rise [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - **LPR Quotation**: The LPR quotation in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [13]. - **EU Leaders' Visit**: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet with them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - chair the 25th China - EU Leaders' Meeting [13]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank's public solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repos is mainly a long - term measure to optimize the market mechanism and align with international standards, with limited direct connection to restarting treasury bond trading [13]. - **Trade Issues**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' legitimate rights [13]. - **Hydropower Project**: The construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14]. - **G20 Meeting**: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting this year, China stated that it will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 21, including contract information such as settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different maturities and varieties of treasury bond futures, as well as the trends of the main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: Relevant data on the money market, such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate change, are provided [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) are presented [35].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg price bottomed out last week and then rose significantly, officially entering the summer peak season. The current market is in the first wave of rapid price increases. Based on historical data, the average spot price of eggs in the producing areas during the peak season of the third quarter this year is expected to reach 4.30 yuan/jin, with a minimum average of 3.77 yuan/jin. The valuation of the 09 contract is slightly lower than the average expected increase during the peak season. A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The price of eggs in the national market rose today. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract rose 0.64%. For specific contract data, the 2508 contract closed at 3593, up 80 or 2.28%; the 2509 contract closed at 3636, up 23 or 0.64%; the 2510 contract closed at 3410, up 37 or 1.10% [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure due to the potential impact of cold - stored eggs on the market after a sharp price increase [8]. 2. Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, showing an upward trend for six consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In June, the monthly hatchling volume of chicks in sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, slightly less than 44.98 million in May and slightly higher than 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. The replenishment volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10]. - **Hen Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to July 11, the national hen culling volumes were 16.27 million, 17.14 million, and 18.41 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to expectations of the summer peak season, but the absolute value was still slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of July 17, the average age of culled hens was 505 days, one day later than last week and four days earlier than last month [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg production area average price, 08 contract basis, 08 - 09 spread, 08 seasonal trend, and egg - laying hen farming profit, etc. [14][17][13]

Report Overview - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures' main price fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 4.99%. The trading volume was 1,260,930 lots, and the open interest was 383,296 lots, with a net increase of 3,956 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was priced at 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan at 8,600 yuan/ton. The 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang 9,250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,350 yuan/ton [4]. - The commodity sector resonated to fill the gap in April, and industrial silicon continued to make up for the increase. The fundamental factors are not the main driving logic at present. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the reduction in Xinjiang, and the production change was not significant compared with the first half of the year. There was no unexpected change in the demand side. Previously, it was suggested that 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton was a resistance range to be challenged based on the average cost and the previous warehouse receipt cancellation price. Since last Friday, the policy side continued to boost the strong market expectation, and the increase in the industrial silicon guidance price also indicated that the policy aimed at "profit repair" in the short term. Referring to the current average cost of industrial silicon at 9,228 yuan/ton, it will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 4.99%, with a trading volume of 1,260,930 lots and an open interest of 383,296 lots, a net increase of 3,956 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon was mainly stable. The 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 8,600 yuan/ton. The 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang 9,250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,350 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The commodity sector filled the April gap, and industrial silicon continued to rise. The fundamentals were not the main driver. Southwest's复产 offset Xinjiang's production cuts, and demand had no significant changes. With policy support and a cost reference of 9,228 yuan/ton, it will fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 21, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,141 lots, a net decrease of 252 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of July, the transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 40,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [5]. - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials were about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5].