研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡偏强。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15020 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 82 元/吨。2024 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The market has weak expectations for the price increase in July, and it remains to be seen whether other shipping companies will follow the price - hike. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the price increase in the peak season is difficult to be falsified in the short - term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while high - short opportunities in the traditional off - season in October are worth attention [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: Shipping companies have announced price increases for early - July freight rates, with quotes ranging from $3860 - $4535, and a median of around $4000. However, Maersk and CMA CGM have lowered their opening prices. The market has weak expectations for the price increase, and it's necessary to observe the implementation in July and other shipping companies' follow - up. The price increase in the peak season may be supported by fundamentals, and the 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month contract in the traditional off - season offers high - short opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Geopolitical events: Iran launched a missile attack on a US military base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. The international oil price dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose. Trump claimed to have "completely destroyed" Iranian nuclear facilities, but Iran said the damage was not as serious. China strongly condemned the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [9][10] - Shipping market: From June 16 - 20, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust, with more falling than rising freight rates. The European economy is recovering slowly, and the trade prospects are uncertain. The North American economy's recovery is not optimistic due to weak consumer data. Freight rates on various routes have different degrees of decline [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The European route's SCFIS increased by 14.1% from June 16 to June 23, while the US - West route's SCFIS decreased by 28.4% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts on June 26 shows different price changes, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase of 4.12% [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on global container shipping capacity, container ship orders, and shipping rates between Shanghai and European ports [17][18][21]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The short - term copper price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to low inventory support and a warming macro - environment. The market should pay attention to the Shanghai copper's test of the previous high pressure level [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper slightly rose to 78,810, with total positions increasing by 11,458 lots. The 07 - 08 spread on the board narrowed to 130, and the spot premium dropped 10 to 30. Downstream demand for high - priced copper was limited during the off - season [11] - LME market spreads also narrowed, with the 0 - 3 spread narrowing to $150/ton. The shortage of spot goods slightly eased, but LME inventory continued to decline by 1,200 to 93,475 tons. The high BACK structure caused by low LME inventory is difficult to ease in the short term [11] - The COMEX - LME spread widened to $1,214/ton. The high C - L premium due to the delayed US tariff implementation led to the continuous transfer of global inventory to COMEX. SHFE and LME will face continuous de - stocking pressure [11] - The macro - environment has improved. The sharp rise in A - shares has driven the market's bullish sentiment to spread to the commodity market, supporting the prices of Shanghai and London copper [11] 3.2. Industry News - A new preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona shows an initial cost of $1.24 billion and a post - tax net present value (NPV) of $1.4 billion. The underground mine can produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode per year in the first 15 years of its 23 - year lifespan. At a base price of $4.25 per pound, the internal rate of return (IRR) is 20%. At the current Comex high - grade copper price of $4.83 per pound, the NPV rises to $1.9 billion and the IRR rises to 24% [12] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper produced by Houma Beitong Copper Industry Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 200,000 tons. It also cancelled the registration qualification of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper of Shanxi Beifang Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s Houma Smelter [12] - The case of Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. and Ajlan Brothers Mining Company's new joint venture entered the publicity period (June 16 - 25, 2025). The joint venture will engage in exploration, potential mining, operation, management, development, production, and sales of minerals in Saudi Arabia [13] - An employee of First Quantum's Trident died in a dump truck accident at Sentinel. The company will cooperate fully with the investigation, and operations in the accident area have been temporarily suspended [13]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The zinc market maintains a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Although social inventory is at a low level, the trend of inventory accumulation during the off - season has not been confirmed. The SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 22,000 - yuan mark turning into a resistance level [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,150 yuan/ton, closed at 22,175 yuan/ton, with the highest at 22,215 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 22,025 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan, a 0.43% increase, and the holding volume decreased by 13,166 to 38,573 lots. For SHFE zinc 2508 (the main contract), it opened at 21,975 yuan/ton, closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, with the highest at 22,095 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 21,860 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan, a 0.57% increase, with reduced volume and increased positions, and the holding volume increased by 8,395 to 129,865 lots. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 21,905 yuan/ton, closed at 21,945 yuan/ton, with the highest at 21,995 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 21,775 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, a 0.69% increase, and the holding volume increased by 3,349 to 61,109 lots [7] - **Market Situation**: The SHFE zinc traded within a range. The 0 - 3 spread was C20.17, the SHFE - LME ratio was 8.25, and the ratio excluding exchange was 1.16. The spot import loss was 875.84 yuan, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The import window remained deeply closed, the LME inventory continued to be below 130,000 tons, and China's import volume in June was expected to decline month - on - month. The mine supply was abundant, the imported zinc concentrate TC increased slightly, and the domestic TC remained flat at 3,600 yuan/ton. The smelting end was expected to have an incremental output, while the operating rates in the downstream primary consumption sectors were all lower than the same period in previous years. The construction of engineering projects and the home appliance industry were both weak, and the galvanizing production plan was reduced [7] 2. Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On June 25, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,205 - 22,295 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,135 - 22,225 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 40 - 50 yuan/ton to the average price, and there was no quote against the market price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 140 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,185 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 22,060 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and the 1 zinc ingot was traded between 21,940 - 22,030 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc was generally quoted at a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,090 - 22,185 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a premium of 180 - 210 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions by SMM, and the LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, steel mills are still in the process of production cuts, but due to their weak willingness to control losses and cut production, and the support of downstream demand under the effect of rush - export, the production cut pace is expected to be tortuous, and the ore price will generally show a weak and volatile state with short - term support [11]. - In the medium and long term, the "terminal demand decline - steel enterprise profit narrowing - steel enterprise production cut - ore price trend decline" chain may appear in the second half of the year, as real estate investment is still falling at a rate of about 10%, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to make up for the real estate gap, and the uncertainty of exports may gradually appear in the data after the 90 - day suspension period in the US [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On June 25, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower, oscillated and declined, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing at 702.5 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore contracts on June 25 are as follows: RB2510 closed at 2976 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; HC2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; SS2508 closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 1.25%; I2509 closed at 702.5 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [5]. - The black - series futures' long - short positions on June 25 showed different changes. For example, the long - short position difference of I2509 was - 5985, with a deviation of - 1.41% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On June 25, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were lowered by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port were lowered by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, for the iron ore 2509 contract, the daily KDJ indicator showed a divergent trend, with the J - value continuing to decline and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator has been increasing for 3 consecutive trading days [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East has an indirect impact on iron ore, mainly through emotional shocks, and the main logic lies in its own fundamentals [11]. - From the current fundamentals, steel enterprises still maintain a good profit level, the production cut pace is tortuous, last week's daily average pig iron output increased by 0.57 million tons to 242.18 million tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate both increased, indicating strong support on the demand side of iron ore. The supply side has also increased, with the shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil rising above 30 million tons, reaching a new high since late June 2024, and the arrival volume also rising to a relatively high level in history [11]. 3.4 Industry News - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that China's economy has withstood pressure and maintained a positive trend this year, and social confidence has continued to improve. Policies such as trade - in of large - scale durable consumer goods should be effectively implemented [13]. - From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of passenger cars nationwide reached 1.269 million units, a year - on - year increase of 24% compared with the same period in June last year and an 8% increase compared with the same period last month; the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers reached 1.238 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a 9% increase compared with the same period last month [13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to iron ore, including prices at Qingdao Port, shipping and arrival volumes, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and production and consumption data of steel products [18][22][29][41]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 | | 表2：6月25日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 持仓 | 前 20 空头 持仓 | 前 20 多头 持仓变化 | 前 20 空头 持仓变化 | 多空 对比 | 偏离度 | | RB2510 | 1,317,735 | 1,330,674 | -10,103 | -19,796 | 9,693 | 0.73% | | HC2510 | 1,113,631 | 1,015,776 | -415 | -16,937 | 16,522 | 1.55% | | SS2508 | 1 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures fluctuated strongly, with limited increase compared to the previous day. The spot price center moved slightly up, with electric carbon rising 300 to 60,200. The spot price was still lower than the futures price, and the delivery loss had significantly narrowed, but the exchange warehouse receipts were still decreasing. Attention should be paid to the delivery problem of the 07 contract in the short term [12]. - The prices of Australian ore and lithium mica ore both increased, and the price center of cathode materials also moved up. The price - cut tide in the industry chain had暂缓, and with the improvement of the current macro - environment, the market bullish sentiment was increasing. The short - term stop - falling sign of lithium carbonate was obvious, but due to the high supply and high inventory of lithium carbonate, the rebound space of lithium carbonate futures was expected to be limited [12]. Group 3: Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,311 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 360 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,700 - 60,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,200 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,100 - 59,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,600 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate spot market continued the pattern of oversupply, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent. The market had sufficient tradable goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively relieved. The demand side had no significant incremental expectation, and downstream cathode material enterprises maintained a cautious procurement strategy, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The lithium carbonate price had approached the industry average cost line, and the market had entered a volatile stage of long - short game. The slight rebound of the futures price had a certain conduction effect on the spot market, driving the transaction center of point - price trading based on the futures price to move up slightly, but the overall market sentiment was still cautious [13]. - The General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on organizing the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season in Thousands of Counties and Towns from July to December 2025. Local governments should implement the policy of trading in old cars for new ones, set up special areas for trading in old cars for new ones in the new energy vehicle consumption season event venues, and launch more marketable new energy vehicle models. They should promote the reform pilot of automobile circulation and consumption, combine the new energy vehicle consumption season activities with the pilot construction work, plan to carry out special promotions and test - drive experiences for intelligent connected new energy vehicles, and promote the commercial application of high - level intelligent driving cars under safe and legal conditions. They should also create diversified post - market consumption scenarios for automobiles and extend the automobile consumption chain [13][14]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures: The main contract price fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 7,555 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The trading volume was 504,119 lots, and the open interest was 306,644 lots, with a net increase of 13,217 lots [4] - Spot prices: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Fundamental improvement was limited. In the third week of June, the output of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the monthly output exceeded 320,000 tons. Domestic demand remained at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remained at 50,000 tons. The recent expectation of polysilicon production cuts was disappointed, bringing a marginal increase in demand. The futures warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled and taken out of storage, dropping to 266,300 tons. The spot prices were stable recently, and the sentiment in the commodity market improved. The hourly chart showed a convergent triangular oscillation, and it had not broken through the upper resistance yet. It could continue to be observed, but the weak supply - demand situation limited the rebound height, and the overall trend continued to oscillate [4] Group 3: Market News - On June 25, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 53,263 lots, a net decrease of 307 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data, in May 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 53,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.48% [5]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2506 | 1,889.3 | 1,881.1 | 1,885.3 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Iran and Israel both announced the end of the war, causing oil prices to continue falling [6] - In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically achieved the planned production increase. Trump has expressed concerns about high oil prices, so there is a possibility that OPEC+ will further increase production [6] - In the June report, due to the suspension of the China-US tariff conflict, the expectation for crude oil demand has improved. However, as there is also an expected increase in supply from countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment to the balance sheet is limited, and the market will maintain a stockpiling pattern in the second half of the year [6] - Short-term geopolitical situations may still change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. Supported by the peak demand season, oil prices will be relatively strong in the third quarter. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in operations. In the fourth quarter, the cost line of shale oil may be tested again [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $67.74, closing at $65.01, with a high of $67.83, a low of $64.00, a decline of 5.11%, and a trading volume of 512,300 lots. Brent's opening price was $68.12, closing at $66.84, with a high of $69.37, a low of $65.93, a decline of 5.22%, and a trading volume of 645,800 lots. SC's opening price was 513 yuan/barrel, closing at 508.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 516.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 500.2 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.13%, and a trading volume of 304,000 lots [6][8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider reverse spreads in the third quarter and expect the fourth quarter to test the shale oil cost line [6] 2. Industry News - Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May [8] - Trump stated that if Iran rebuilds its nuclear facilities, the US will take action again and that the cease - fire between Iran and Israel is progressing smoothly [8] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][18][23]