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白糖日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:47
Industry Report Overview 1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: June 27, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core Views - New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, with the main October contract up 1.59% to 16.62 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main August contract rose 2.4% to $479 per ton. Frost in Brazilian sugar - cane regions and an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline are expected to reduce sugar - making raw material supply [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose slightly. The 09 contract closed at 5,790 yuan per ton, up 63 yuan or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15,891 positions. Domestic spot prices rose. Zhengzhou sugar was strong, with limited fundamental changes. After being pressured by funds, it faced strong resistance below 5,600 yuan, and large speculative short - positions leaving supported the price [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestion - **Futures Market:** SR509 closed at 5,790 yuan per ton, up 63 yuan or 1.1%, with a position reduction of 15,891 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,601 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan or 0.72%, with a position increase of 956 contracts; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.62 cents per pound, up 0.26 cents or 1.59%, with a position increase of 8,324 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 17.26 cents per pound, up 0.22 cents or 1.29%, with a position increase of 2,553 contracts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Brazil will increase the mandatory anhydrous ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in ordinary diesel from 14% to 15% starting August 1 [9]. - Itaú BBA predicts that the sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season will be 590 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. However, sugar production is expected to reach 41.2 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase, with a sugar - making ratio of 52% and an average ATR of 141 kg per ton [9]. - Indonesia's 2025 white sugar production is expected to be 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons. It plans to import about 200,000 tons of raw sugar, and the demand in 2025 is expected to reach 2.84 million tons [9]. - As of the week ending June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 80 the previous week. The sugar volume waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, a 1.94% week - on - week decrease [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, contract basis, spread, import profit, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract [11][13][20][23]
建信期货生猪日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:47
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continues to support the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The current futures contract is at a discount to the spot, and it is still regarded as a rebound, which may be affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 26th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,990 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,040 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 996 lots to 165,608 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 26th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.56 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On June 26, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 142,100 heads, 1,100 less than the previous day and 4,700 less than a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughter, the volume of large pigs decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [19] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [19] - As of the week of June 19, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42% [19] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 19, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan/jin increase from the previous week [19]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:46
Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is facing a situation where the supply is relatively loose, and the improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited. Although the suspension of the warehousing of Russian spruce pulp has begun this week, the current port inventory reduction speed is slow. The paper mills' raw material procurement mentality remains cautious, mainly replenishing stocks with low - level rigid demand [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The previous settlement price of the 09 - contract of pulp futures was 5080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5066 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Silver Star was 6100 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply - related Data**: Chile's Arauco announced its June prices, with Silver Star at $740/ton and Venus at $620/ton, the same as the previous quotation. According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in April decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was 1.4%. According to UTIPULP data, the European wood pulp inventory in May decreased by 2.4% month - on - month and increased by 2.5% year - on - year; the consumption increased by 7.9% month - on - month and 0.3% year - on - year. In May, China's total pulp imports were 3.02 million tons, an increase of 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year. As of June 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.7% month - on - month, and the inventory in major ports increased compared to the previous week, with the overall shipment speed being gentle [8] 2. Industry News - On June 24, Rizhao Asia Symbol was investigated for the progress of its enterprise project construction. The enterprise is required to accelerate technological transformation and industrial chain extension, focus on the "pulp - paper - fiber integration", and continue to deepen the entire industrial chain from raw materials to finished products to better drive local economic development [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:46
Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [1] - Reported Industry: Polyolefins [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures showed an upward trend, but the spot price continued to decline. The market trading atmosphere was average, and factories were cautious in purchasing. The geopolitical conflict premium decreased, the cost - side support weakened, the supply showed an increasing trend, and the demand was in the off - season with limited support. The futures - spot basis slightly recovered but remained low, and the supply - demand surplus situation widened, suppressing prices [4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2509 opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 7300 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (0.72%), with a trading volume of 3.85 million lots and an increase in positions by 9257 to 471,020 lots. PP's main contract closed at 7108 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan (0.54%), with an increase in positions by 5024 to 429,400 lots [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On June 26, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.27%) from the previous working day, compared with 725,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - PE market prices continued to decline. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 7280 - 7450 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - Propylene prices on the west coast of the Yellow Sea continued to decline, with the mainstream price at 6600 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere improved slightly [5]. - The PP market was mainly in a narrow - range consolidation. The futures' warm - up oscillation had limited impact on the confidence of spot market participants, and there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China PP filaments were in the ranges of 7060 - 7170 yuan/ton, 7130 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on futures market quotes, including opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, positions, and position changes of different contracts of plastics and PP [3]. - There are also figures related to L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, L and PP basis, two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [12][13][15].
建信期货铜期货日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:45
Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Short - term copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen, with attention on the upper pressure level of 80,000 [11] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper has risen for three consecutive days. The tight domestic and foreign spot markets and the warming macro - environment are the main reasons for the recent copper price increase. During the off - season, the domestic social inventory has accumulated slowly, with only 0.05 million tons accumulated this week. The export window is open, and smelters are increasing their export efforts. It is still difficult to accumulate domestic social inventory in the future. Under the tight spot situation, the premium has stopped falling and rebounded, but the continuous rise in copper prices has also narrowed the monthly spread on the disk. The LME market 0 - 3 back has continued to fall to $100/ton, and LME inventory has continued to decline by 400 to 93,075 tons. COMEX inventory has risen to 206,000 short tons. There is a structural shortage of global copper inventory, and this inventory contradiction will continue under the influence of the widening C - L spread [11] 2. Industry News - By the end of May 2025, China's new energy installed capacity has achieved a historic breakthrough: wind power installed capacity has reached 570 million kilowatts, and photovoltaic power installed capacity has reached 1.08 billion kilowatts. The combined proportion of the two in the total installed capacity has risen to 45.7%, surpassing the proportion of thermal power installed capacity for the first time, marking a new stage in the energy structure transformation [12] - According to the latest FedWatch data, the market's bet on the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is 20.7%, which is higher than that of a week ago (12.5%), but the market still expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the July interest - rate meeting with a probability of nearly 80%. Although Fed officials have recently signaled an early interest - rate cut, substantial interest - rate cuts may have to wait until September due to the remaining inflation risks in the US and the resilience of the labor market [12] - With the maturity of generative AI technology and the acceleration of data center construction, the demand for copper cables in short - distance high - speed interconnection scenarios has increased significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the "Action Plan for Computing Power Interconnection", aiming to promote the efficient interconnection of computing power infrastructure. High - speed copper cables, as the core components of short - distance transmission in data centers, are expected to become a key policy - supported direction. Nvidia re - claimed the title of the world's "market - value king" on Wednesday. A Wall Street analyst predicted that Nvidia is about to ride on the "golden wave" of artificial intelligence (AI). The market's optimistic sentiment towards the AI track continues to heat up, boosting the market performance of chip stocks and copper - cable high - speed connection concept stocks [12] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025, and the market's re - evaluation of the strategic value of copper resources has indirectly boosted the confidence of the copper - cable high - speed connection industry chain [13]
建信期货国债日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:44
021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | 表1:国债期货6月26日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.600 | 120.750 | 120.720 | 120.680 | 0.120 | 0.10 | ...
建信期货锌期货日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:44
行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 1. 2025 年 6 月 26 日 0#锌主流成交价集中在 22290~22390 元/吨,双燕成交 于 22380~22530 元/吨,1#锌主流成交于 22220~22320 元/吨。早盘市场对 均价报价升水 40~50 元/吨,无对盘报价。第二交易时段,普通国产报价 对 2507 合约升水 110 元/吨,白银对 2507 合约升水 160 元/吨,会泽对 2507 合约升水 200 元/吨,高价品牌双燕对 2507 合约报价升水 200~250 元/吨。 2. 宁波市场主流品牌 0#锌成交价在 22280~223 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soda ash futures prices remains weakly volatile due to supply decline from equipment maintenance, weak downstream demand, and inventory accumulation. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply. The weak demand for architectural glass also suppresses the continuous upward momentum of soda ash futures prices [8]. - The short - term rebound space of glass is limited, and it is expected to operate with low - level volatility. The glass market is in the traditional rainy season, with weakening orders, high supply, falling costs, and continuous inventory accumulation. The real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data on June 26**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated strongly. The closing price was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 1.72%, with a daily reduction of 32,209 lots. Other contracts also showed certain price increases [7][8]. - **Soda Ash Fundamental Situation**: In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash output dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and was still at a high level this year. The weekly capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The shipment volume was 676,500 tons, a 5.29% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1,766,900 tons, a 2.33% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Glass Fundamental Situation**: In the traditional rainy season, glass processing orders weakened slightly. Supply remained high, costs declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The real - estate completion stage had not improved substantially, and the spot market had intense price competition with declining transaction prices [9]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides price trend charts of active soda ash and glass contracts, as well as data on the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China and flat - glass production, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][14]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:35
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...
贵金属日评-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:35
Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - NATO summit increases geopolitical risks and weakens the US dollar, supporting the strength of London gold above $3300 per ounce, while the strong rise of the Chinese stock market makes silver with stronger industrial attributes outperform gold. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - In April, Trump's tariff measures caused a shock in the global financial market, pushing up the gold price. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Quotes - NATO summit agreements increase geopolitical risks and weaken the US dollar index to a low of 97.3 for the year. Safe - haven demand and currency factors support London gold above $3300 per ounce, and silver outperforms gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary June PMI values in Europe and the US, the Fed Chairman's congressional testimony, the May PCE inflation in the US, and the development of the Middle East situation [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Quotes - In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a shock in the global financial market, pushing the gold price to break through $3500 per ounce. Although the gold price has corrected from its high due to the fading emotional impact and the marginal improvement of global trade, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Domestic Precious Metals Quotes | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.05 | 777.64 | 772.42 | 777.59 | 0.20% | 412,622 | - 3795 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,749 | 8,827 | 8,689 | 8,821 | 0.82% | 883,880 | 12,149 | | Gold T + D | 771.68 | 773.31 | 767.65 | 773.26 | 0.20% | 211,684 | 1,818 | | Silver T + D | 8,698 | 8,777 | 8,641 | 8,773 | 0.86% | 3,182,526 | 54,730 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump welcomes the quick end of the Israel - Iran war and may hold talks with Iranian officials next week, while the US has not given up on extreme pressure on Iran but may relax law enforcement. The IAEA Director - General emphasizes the need for IAEA personnel to return to Iranian nuclear facilities for assessment [17]. - Fed Chairman Powell believes that Trump's tariff plan may only cause a one - time price increase, but the risk of more persistent inflation is significant, making the Fed cautious about further interest rate cuts, highlighting the difference between Powell and Trump [17]. - Trump considers providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine and hopes Putin will end the war. He had a 50 - minute meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the NATO summit [17].