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建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:30
Report Information - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply-demand situation in the egg market remains oversupplied, and the prices of each contract are at historically low levels. The recent price rebound is considered a short - term phenomenon and is difficult to form a trend. However, as time passes, the market's purchasing sentiment may gradually improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space of the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, with the possibility of slow declines and sharp rises. Continuous attention should be paid to the intensity of chicken culling [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2507 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2881, the opening price was 2837, the highest price was 2853, the lowest price was 2817, the closing price was 2819, with a decline of 62 and a decline rate of 2.15%. The trading volume was 24,186, the open interest was 38,772, and the open interest decreased by 2084 [7]. - For the 2508 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3579, the opening price was 3543, the highest price was 3570, the lowest price was 3530, the closing price was 3551, with a decline of 28 and a decline rate of 0.78%. The trading volume was 131,572, the open interest was 236,582, and the open interest decreased by 400 [7]. - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3637, the opening price was 3622, the highest price was 3645, the lowest price was 3611, the closing price was 3642, with an increase of 5 and an increase rate of 0.14%. The trading volume was 45,989, the open interest was 143,203, and the open interest increased by 4600 [7]. - **Analysis and Suggestions**: The national egg price is stable today. The average price in the main production areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 08 contract declined by 0.78%. The egg price stabilized and rebounded last week. After the expectation of the plum - rain season was priced in advance, the low price was realized earlier. Due to continuous losses, farmers accelerated the culling of chickens, reducing the supply pressure and leading to a recent price rebound. However, the oversupply situation remains the main theme. To see a continuous price rebound, it is necessary to see a continuous increase in culling or a decrease in the egg - laying rate due to high temperatures after the plum - rain season, which is difficult to achieve in the short term. As time goes by, the market's purchasing sentiment may improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space of the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, and continuous attention should be paid to the culling intensity [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an increasing trend. As of the end of May, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, showing a certain degree of growth for 5 consecutive months, and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% compared with the same period last year [9]. - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises in May was about 44.98 million, slightly less than 46.99 million in April, and slightly higher than 44.54 million in the same period in 2024, ranking medium in the past 8 years [9]. - The national chicken culling volume in the first three weeks as of June 6 was 19.97 million, 21.02 million, and 19.53 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered since May, showing a month - on - month increase for 4 consecutive weeks, with a slight decline this week, and the absolute value is slightly higher than the average of the previous three years. As of June 12, the average age of culled chickens was 512 days, 3 days earlier than last week and 22 days earlier than last month [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China (in billions) and the profit of egg - chicken farming (in yuan per chicken), but no specific data analysis is provided [10].
甲醇日报-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:30
Report Information - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Methanol [1] - Research Analysts: Li Jin (Methanol), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Li Jie (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil), Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The methanol weighted contract decreased with a reduction in positions. The 09 main contract also reduced positions. The weighted contract showed a trend of opening low and moving lower, with a large - bodied negative candlestick having a long lower shadow, and an overall decline of 4.68% [6]. - The average spot transaction price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Geopolitical factors, such as the temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran, led to a sharp drop in WTI crude oil and a limit - down in domestic crude oil, which dragged down the methanol price. The short - term price fluctuation of methanol exceeded the fundamental range [7]. - Technically, in the hourly cycle, the RSI indicator entered the oversold area after a third entry into the overbought area and then a correction. The MACD fast and slow lines started to run below the zero - axis with the green bars continuously lengthening. In the daily cycle, the MACD red bars continued to shorten, and the RSI indicator fell from the overbought area. The short - term adjustment continued, and the short - term trend was regarded as a wide - range oscillation [7]. Industry News - The core device of Goldwind Science & Technology's 500,000 - ton green methanol project using green hydrogen was successfully hoisted, marking the project's entry into the full - scale equipment installation phase and starting Xing'an League's acceleration in the hydrogen energy field [15]. - A 500,000 - ton/year methanol - to - ethanol project in Yulin, with a total investment of 6.868 billion yuan, held a progress meeting. The project consists of four parts and includes multiple production units, with the 250,000 - ton/year vinyl acetate and auxiliary devices to be built and put into operation first [15]. Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price | Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Speculation Degree | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2501 | 2480 | 2407 | 2491 | 2350 | - 3.41% | 241,821 | 237,560 | - 5,280 | 1.02 | | MA2505 | 2403 | 2321 | 2407 | 2284 | - 3.53% | 4,601 | 5,316 | 88 | 0.87 | | MA2509 | 2488 | 2379 | 2495 | 2336 | - 4.99% | 2,891,579 | 896,735 | - 96,724 | 3.22 | [6]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:30
工业硅日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 请阅读正文后的声明 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfu ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:30
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - Spot market: Shipping companies have announced price increases for early July, with quotes ranging from $3,860 to $4,535, but Maersk and CMA CGM have lowered their prices. The market has weak expectations for price increases, but considering the strong demand and stable supply, the price increases may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month contract is suitable for short - selling opportunities [8]. - Industry news: International oil prices dropped about 9% and the US stock market rose after Iran's missile strike on a US military base. China's export container shipping market is in adjustment, with the comprehensive index falling. European economic recovery is slow, and the US economic recovery is not optimistic. Tensions in the Middle East have increased [9][10]. Market Data 1. Container Shipping Futures Trading Data on June 24 | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1,892.8 | 1,875.0 | 1,883.0 | 1,885.1 | - 9.8 | - 0.52 | 491 | 3,361 | - 172 | | EC2508 | 1,966.9 | 1,950.0 | 1,875.0 | 1,905.3 | - 91.9 | - 4.67 | 70,521 | 47,053 | 1,085 | | EC2510 | 1,383.6 | 1,400.0 | 1,370.0 | 1,380.9 | - 13.6 | - 0.98 | 15,474 | 31,514 | 1,729 | | EC2512 | 1,564.0 | 1,575.0 | 1,530.1 | 1,536.6 | - 33.9 | - 2.17 | 2,667 | 6,656 | 460 | | EC2602 | 1,404.5 | 1,402.0 | 1,372.1 | 1,384.3 | - 32.4 | - 2.31 | 599 | 2,939 | - 39 | | EC2604 | 1,213.8 | 1,220.1 | 1,209.8 | 1,209.8 | - 4.0 | - 0.33 | 797 | 4,156 | 169 | [6] 2. Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index | Date | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | SCFIS: US West Route (Base Ports) | Change | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | June 23, 2025 | 1,937.14 | 2,083.46 | 239.51 | 14.1 | | June 16, 2025 | 1,697.63 | 2,908.68 | - 825.22 | - 28.4 | [12]
建信期货国债日报-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 01:30
行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 #summary# 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 每日报告 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) | | 表1:国债期货6月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.260 | 121.230 | 120.930 | 120.940 | -0.330 | -0.27 | 76770 | 117168 | 1043 | | TL2512 | 121.120 | 121.050 | 120.780 | ...
建信期货股指日评-20250624
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:11
请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 宏观金融团队 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 6 月 24 日,万得全 A 放量上涨,开盘后一路震荡上行,超 8 成个股飘红,指 数现货方面,沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.29%、0.41%、 0.51%、1.31%,中小盘股表现更优。指数期货表现强于现货,IF、IH、IC、IM 主 力合约分别收涨 0.68%、0.74%、0.70%、1.01%(按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算)。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 ...
建信期货原油日报-20250624
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:09
能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@c ...
建信期货生猪日报-20250624
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:01
Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 23rd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened higher, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow range, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,925 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 756 lots to 161,087 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.41 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Pig Comment - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish inventory was low. Only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait-and-see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rose, terminal demand weakened, the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remained low. On June 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,100 heads, a decrease of 800 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 1,400 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply side: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month-on-month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughtering in stages, and the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in the slaughter weight [10]. - Overall: The purchasing and storage policy played a role in stabilizing pig prices and boosting confidence. At the same time, the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continued to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs was expected to continue to increase, while the demand entered the seasonal off-season, and the situation of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. In the futures market, the current futures contracts were all at a discount to the spot market. The purchasing and storage policy and the reduction in volume and weight by the breeding side brought a short-term rebound, which was still regarded as a rebound market. In the medium and long term, it was still affected by the off-season demand and loose supply and demand, and was likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the future purchasing and storage policy [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [18]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten days [18]. - As of the week of June 19th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% [18]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten days. The price difference between 150 kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [18].
甲醇日报-20250624
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 02:50
研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 ...
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250624
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 02:48
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭 ...