Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight by enterprises supports the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - peak season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures are currently in a rebound situation, but are still affected by the off - peak demand season and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the 24th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated down, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,940 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 4,338 lots to 165,425 lots. The national average price of foreign three - way pigs was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.05 yuan/kg increase from the previous day [9] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On the supply side, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises are reducing volume and weight in a phased manner, the slaughter volume of large pigs has declined, and the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [10] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a 0.92% month - on - month increase and an 8.57% year - on - year increase [11] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a 1.32% month - on - month increase and a 14.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [20] - As of the week of June 19, the average national slaughter weight was 128.28 kg, a 0.54 - kg decrease from the previous week, a 0.42% month - on - month decrease [20] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19 was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 yuan/jin increase from the previous week [20]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+230（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一 ...

报告类型 股指日评 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 6 月 24 日，万得全 A 放量上涨，开盘后一路震荡上行，近 9 成个股飘红，指 数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.20%、1.16%、 1.62%、1.92%，中小盘股表现更优。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主 力合约分别收涨 1.45%、1.10%、1.97%、2.46%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 每日报告 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅 ...

黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 | | | | | | 表1：6月24日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1385 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, steel mills are still in the process of production cuts, but due to their weak willingness to control losses and production, and the support of downstream demand under the effect of export rush, the production cut pace is expected to be tortuous, and the iron ore price will generally show a volatile and weak state with short - term support at the bottom [12]. - In the medium and long term, the real estate investment is still declining at a rate of about 10%, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is difficult to make up for the real estate gap. After the 90 - day suspension period in the United States, the uncertainty of exports will gradually appear in the data. The high steel production may not be sustainable. Coupled with the gradual release of the incremental supply of iron ore after the Xipo project is put into production, the chain of "terminal demand decline - steel enterprise profit narrowing - steel enterprise production cut - iron ore price trend decline" may appear in the second half of the year [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On June 24, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. After a sharp decline at the opening, it oscillated, and then fell again in the afternoon, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. Other steel futures contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [7]. - **Spot Market**: On June 24, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were lowered by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning down and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [9]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Short - term**: Although steel mills are in the process of production cuts, due to good profit levels, the production cut pace is tortuous. Last week, the daily average pig iron output rebounded, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate both increased, indicating strong support on the demand side of iron ore. The supply of iron ore is expected to be loose until mid - July [12]. - **Medium - and Long - term**: Real estate investment is declining, and the uncertainty of steel exports will increase after the 90 - day suspension period in the United States. The high steel production may not be sustainable, and the supply of iron ore will increase after the Xipo project is put into production, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices [13]. 3.3 Industry News - In May 2025, China's coal imports continued to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. The import volume dropped to 3604.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 178.5 million tons (4.7%) and a year - on - year decrease of 777.6 million tons (17.7%) [14]. - On June 24, local time, the Israeli military claimed to have detected Iran launching missiles at Israel after the cease - fire agreement took effect, and the Israeli defense minister ordered a strong response. Iran denied the claim [14]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipping volume of Brazilian and Australian iron ore, the arrival volume at 45 ports, etc. [19][23][30]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - In the futures market, plastics and PP contracts generally declined. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7199 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan (-2.15%); plastic 2605 closed at 7182 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.26%); plastic 2509 closed at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%); PP2601 closed at 7027 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.31%); PP2605 closed at 7006 yuan/ton, down 179 yuan (-2.49%); PP2509 closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%) [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The main plastic contract L2509 opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%), with a trading volume of 595,000 lots and a decrease in open interest by 3309 to 474,026 lots. The main PP contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%), with a decrease in open interest by 40,075 lots to 448,435 lots. The weak futures market dampened market trading sentiment. On the supply side, there were few new maintenance plans, and the loss of production due to plant maintenance decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's PP project was planned to be put into operation on June 19, and domestic supply showed an increasing trend. The downstream industry has entered the traditional off - season, with significantly insufficient new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects slowed down. With high raw material prices and weak downstream industry profits, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was difficult to significantly improve. The basis of plastic and PP slightly rebounded but remained low. The easing of the Middle East conflict led to a decline in crude oil premiums, and polyolefins prices fell from high levels. Attention should be paid to changes in cost - side drivers [4] Group 5: Industry News - On June 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (-3.70%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices partially declined. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7300 - 7550 yuan/ton, in East China was 7400 - 7800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7450 - 7750 yuan/ton. PP market prices decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The volatile decline of futures prices suppressed the trading atmosphere in the market. Most traders' quotes declined, with some resources dropping significantly by 80 - 100 yuan/ton. Downstream orders were poor, and after some previous purchases, most downstream enterprises maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was relatively poor. The mainstream price of North China drawn PP in the morning was 7080 - 7230 yuan/ton, in East China was 7130 - 7280 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7160 - 7300 yuan/ton [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The zinc market maintains a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Although the social inventory is at a low level, the trend of inventory accumulation in the off - season has not been confirmed. The SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 22,000 - yuan mark turning into a resistance level [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of SHFE zinc 2508 closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 0.85%. The 0 - 3 spread was 22.25, the SHFE - LME ratio was 8.26, and the ratio excluding exchange rate was 1.16. The spot import loss was 842.727 yuan/ton, and the import window was deeply closed. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.18 million tons to 7.78 million tons at the beginning of the week. The supply of zinc concentrates was abundant, the imported zinc concentrate TC increased slightly, and the domestic TC remained flat at 3,600 yuan/ton. The smelting sector was expected to increase production, while the开工 rates in the downstream primary consumption fields were all lower than the same period in previous years. The construction of engineering projects and the home appliance industry were weak, and the galvanizing production plan was reduced. The terminal consumption support decreased marginally after the 618 mid - year promotion and the interruption of national subsidies [7]. 2. Industry News - **National 0 Zinc Transactions**: On June 24, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 21,960 - 22,125 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan brand was between 22,160 - 22,325 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 0 - 10 yuan/ton to the average price, and there was no quote against the market price. In the second trading session, the common domestic brands quoted a premium of 130 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 330 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brands of 0 zinc in Ningbo were traded at around 21,960 - 22,125 yuan/ton. The common brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 130 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in Ningbo was to quote against the 2507 contract, and the quotes remained stable in the two trading periods [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in Tianjin was between 21,890 - 22,090 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin brand was between 21,950 - 22,140 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a premium of 60 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, and Zijin quoted a premium of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract. The Tianjin market quoted a discount of about 20 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 21,785 - 21,995 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 195 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract and a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong expanded [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provided charts on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, but did not provide specific data analysis in the text [11][13]

Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices continued to decline due to Iran's missile attack on US bases in Qatar and Iraq and the expected cease - fire. In the short - term, geopolitical situations may change, and oil prices will remain highly volatile. The market will be in a state of inventory accumulation in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $78/barrel, closing at $67.23/barrel, with a high of $78.4/barrel, a low of $66.6/barrel, a decline of 8.95%, and a trading volume of 70.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $78.9/barrel, closing at $69.73/barrel, with a high of $79.4/barrel, a low of $98.64/barrel, a decline of 7.62%, and a trading volume of 78.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 566.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 518.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 572.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 518.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9%, and a trading volume of 52.65 million lots [6] - **Supply - side**: In the first month of OPEC's increased production, 8 member countries basically completed the planned production increase. Considering Trump's concerns about high oil prices, OPEC+ may further increase production [7] - **Demand - side**: In the June report, due to the suspension of the Sino - US tariff conflict, the crude oil demand outlook improved. However, due to the expected supply growth in countries like Brazil and Guyana, the adjustment of the balance sheet was limited, and the market will accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short - term, oil prices will be highly volatile. Consider reverse spreads in the 3rd quarter, and oil prices may test the shale oil cost line in the 4th quarter [7] 2. Industry News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to Trump's cease - fire plan with Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces detected missiles launched from Iran, and the defense system was activated. The Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to strongly respond to Iran's cease - fire violations and conduct high - intensity strikes on targets in Tehran's core areas [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The most significant contradiction in the fundamentals lies in the fact that production cuts on the supply side have not yet been implemented, but the "rush to install" for terminal installations has ended, and the pressure from the terminal is gradually being transmitted upstream. Although the start - up of battery cells has not declined rapidly, since April, battery cells have seen a significant accumulation of inventory, and downstream buyers are no longer willing to pay a premium for purchases. The spot price has fallen again, fulfilling the previous bearish expectation. The futures market is currently experiencing a temporary rebound, but it has not yet emerged from the bearish trend, and investors can wait for the next high point of the rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract rebounded with fluctuations. The closing price of PS2508 was 31,085 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.48%. The trading volume was 171,969 lots, and the open interest was 72,286 lots, with a net increase of 5,897 lots [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The polycrystalline silicon output in June is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month, and the monthly output will slightly increase to over 100,000 tons, which can meet the demand for 50GW of downstream battery cells [4]. 3.2 Market News - As of June 24, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 2,600 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - The transaction price range of N - type re -投料 was 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon was 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 33,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.90% [5]. - In May 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations were approximately 92GW, a year - on - year increase of 383.2% and a month - on - month increase of over 100%, setting a new high for the same period in history. From January to May, the newly added domestic photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [5]. - As of the end of May, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9% [5]. - From January to May, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1,249 hours, 132 hours less than the same period last year. The investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises nationwide was 257.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and the investment in grid projects was 204 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [5].