Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract and view it as a rebound for now. The supply and demand fundamentals of forward contracts have little change, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high-frequency data in Malaysia shows that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline from December 1 - 20 widened, providing some support for the palm oil market. The market is also concerned about the development of biodiesel in Indonesia. The domestic soybean oil inventory declines seasonally, and the basis is strong, with strong support for the futures price at 7,800 - 8,000. Rapeseed oil is generally used as a short position in arbitrage, but the basis quote is firm due to continuous inventory reduction and concentrated cargo rights. The futures price rebounds due to excessive decline, but caution is needed regarding the unilateral upward height. In terms of arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of the third-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 530, and from February - March was OI2605 + 490. The basis price of the first-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 730, and from February - March was OI2601 + 690. The basis price of the first-grade soybean oil in the East China market had different values at different time periods. The palm oil quotes of traders in Dongguan were stable [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract. For forward contracts, expect narrow fluctuations. In arbitrage, long palm oil and soybean oil and short rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20, 2025 decreased by 7.44% month-on-month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 2.12% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.75% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% month-on-month [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures, including the spot prices of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the price spreads of P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [11][13][16]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货12月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the sentiment in the bond market fluctuates greatly, facing many negative factors, but the inter - year capital market is expected to remain loose to support the long - end. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of shorting the long - end and going long on the short - end. In the long - run, as the bond market has been continuously adjusted, the current interest rate has returned to a reasonable price. There is room for easing next year, and the long - end futures varieties have significant room for a supplementary rise [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: Rumors of a reserve requirement ratio cut spread but were quickly digested. The inter - year funds rose slightly, and the bond market fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed within a narrow range, with the increase of long - end active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.837%, up 0.2bp [9]. - **Funds Market**: The inter - bank funds market was stable, while the non - bank inter - year funds increased. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index was stable, and the pressure eased in the afternoon. The overnight and 7 - day funds rates in the inter - bank deposit market dropped slightly, the 14 - day inter - year rate rose 2bp to 1.62%, and the non - bank funds increased. The central bank is likely to provide support, and the medium - and long - term funds are stable [10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Credit Repair Policy**: The central bank announced a one - time credit repair policy for personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single - amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan. It is "application - free" [13]. - **Vanke's Debt**: Vanke's 2 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it extended the grace period. A subsidiary's 2.62 - billion - yuan insurance debt investment plan was extended for one year [13][14]. - **National Meeting**: Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and emphasized major projects [14]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance of local government bonds in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion yuan, with 500 billion yuan of the debt balance limit in the fourth quarter supporting debt resolution and investment [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, spreads, and trends of treasury bond futures contracts are presented, sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR, etc., is provided, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][26][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is given, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [35][36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for polysilicon is showing a cautious and moderately strong trend. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, causing the market price to break through resistance levels and resonate with the technical aspects. However, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been taking measures to release rational signals and reduce positions. Also, the certainty of the improvement in the fundamental situation is not significant yet, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the entire industry chain for a re - distribution of industrial profits. The supply side may see positive effects as the expected polysilicon output in January is to be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons, but this requires continuous observation. The price has formed a downward trend on the minute - line chart and is in the upward adjustment stage. After breaking below the support level of 58,000 yuan, it has not resumed its upward trend, and attention should be paid to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The closing price of the PS2605 contract is 58,300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.30%. The trading volume is 197,440 lots, and the open interest is 127,084 lots, a net decrease of 4,519 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 traders decreased by 493 lots, and the net short positions decreased by 3,038 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock is 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The market is expected to run cautiously and moderately strong. The establishment of the reserve platform has increased the preference for long - position funds, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been reducing positions. The improvement in the fundamental situation is not certain, and the expected price increase in the silicon material sector needs to be transmitted throughout the industry chain. The expected reduction in polysilicon output in January is a positive factor for the supply side but needs continuous observation. Pay attention to the resistance in the range of 59,000 - 60,000 yuan [4]. 3.2. Market News - On December 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,960 lots, an increase of 300 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its registration, marking the official launch of the long - awaited "polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry. The platform plans to adopt an innovative "two - pronged approach" model, operating under a dual - track model of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible utilization of production capacity" [5]. - The estimated polysilicon output in December is 113,500 tons, and there may still be some production reduction plans in the future [5]. - According to the notice of Guangzhou Futures Exchange (No. 420 [2025]), starting from the trading time on December 22, 2025, for polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612, the minimum opening order quantity per transaction has been adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity per transaction remains at 1 lot [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures prices are running strongly, but the fundamentals are difficult to provide upward drivers, and the rebound resistance of the futures prices is increasing marginally. The supply and demand of industrial silicon still show a loose pattern, and the spot prices remain stable. The expected output in the supply side is about 360,000 tons per month, and the output in the southwest production area will reach a low point. The demand side shows that the weekly operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, and the large - scale centralized production cuts are not sustainable. The expected output and shipment scale of polysilicon in January may be significantly reduced, which may have a significant negative impact on industrial silicon if the expectation is fulfilled [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the SI2605 contract of industrial silicon futures is 8,860 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.43%. The trading volume is 322,150 lots, the open interest is 218,190 lots, with a net increase of 4,414 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty increased by 2,773 lots, and the net short positions increased by 5,753 lots [4]. - The spot prices remain stable. The price of 553 - grade in Sichuan is 9,200 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade in Sichuan is 9,900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On December 24th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,259 lots, an increase of 84 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25%. The weekly output was 80,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.52% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73% [5]. - The quotation increase of polysilicon is different from the actual transaction. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish inventory. However, supported by industry self - discipline and policies, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and the spot transaction price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term [5]. 3.3 Future Outlook - On the supply side, the monthly output is expected to be about 360,000 tons. The output in the southwest production area will reach a low point, the start - up in the northern production area is relatively stable, and the far - month is mainly based on the resumption of production in the wet season. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, and the large - scale centralized production cuts are not sustainable. The Silicon Industry Branch statistics show that the expected output and shipment scale of polysilicon in January will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. If the expectation is fulfilled, it will have a significant negative impact on industrial silicon (still to be observed). The supply and demand are still in a loose pattern, the fundamentals are difficult to provide upward drivers, and the futures prices will also face the selling pressure of the return of warehouse receipts after a large - scale rebound, with the rebound resistance increasing marginally [4].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded slightly by 5.2% to 1589.2 this week, with good price increases in mid - and late December. There is still an expectation of price increases in late January, and the February contract may have some upside potential. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the February and April contracts [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index rose 5.2% to 1589.2 this week. Most shipping companies announced price increases in January, but the actual implementation was weaker than the announced levels. The market may have an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and there is still an expectation of price increases in late January. The February contract may have upside potential, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the 02 - 04 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From December 15th to 19th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates on some long - haul routes rising, driving the composite index up. China's exports in November increased by 5.9% year - on - year in US dollars, and the trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion US dollars in the first 11 months [9] - **European Routes**: Eurozone business activity growth slowed in December, with the composite PMI falling to 51.9. Freight demand was stable this week, and market freight rates declined slightly, with the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate at $1533/TEU on December 19th, down 0.3% from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand fundamentals were slightly better than those of European routes, and the spot market booking price continued to rise, reaching $2833/TEU on December 19th, up 3.5% from the previous period [9][10] - **North American Routes**: The US labor market showed signs of further slowdown in November. Freight demand was stable this week, and the spot market booking price continued to rise, with the Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates at $1992/FEU and $2846/FEU respectively on December 19th, up 11.9% and 7.3% from the previous period [10] - **Shipping Company News**: Many shipping companies such as MSC and CMA CGM announced price increases on multiple international routes in December. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced increases in peak - season surcharges, and CMA CGM will levy a peak - season surcharge of $250 per TEU on Asian - Nordic routes from December 29th and adjust the FAK rate on January 1st [10] - **Geopolitical News**: The Israeli military killed several Hamas members in the Rafah area, and armed militants in the Rafah tunnels are still in direct contact with the Hamas military leadership. Maersk's statement on resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was "clarified" [10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The SCFIS European route index rose from 1510.56 to 1589.2, a increase of 5.2%, and the US West route index rose from 924.36 to 962.1, a increase of 4.1% from December 15th to 22nd [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures**: The trading data of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts on December 23rd are presented, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the EC2606 contract rose 26.1 points, a 2.00% increase [6]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.840 | 111.930 | 112.830 | 112.820 | 0.990 | 0.89 | 140734 | 1 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore are under pressure, with supply expected to increase and demand remaining weak. However, due to recent rumors in the coking coal and coke markets and news related to steel exports, the sentiment in the black metal sector has been boosted, leading to a rebound in iron ore prices. Nevertheless, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upside of iron ore prices. After the rebound, prices may weaken again [11] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On December 23, the main iron ore futures contract 2605 oscillated weakly, opening lower and then oscillating downward. It oscillated in the afternoon and recovered slightly at the end of the session, closing at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [7] - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: On December 23, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port increased by 1 - 3 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning down. The red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract increased [9] - **Future Outlook**: - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly by 140.7 million tons to 2748.6 million tons, but remained at a relatively high level. According to historical patterns, as the end of the year approaches, overseas mines will increase shipments, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase [10] - **Demand**: The total output of the five major steel products decreased again, reaching a new low since September 2024. Among them, the output of hot - rolled coils declined the most, possibly related to the production profit of each variety. The average daily pig iron output has declined for 5 consecutive weeks and has now fallen to a relatively low level of about 2.26 million tons, indicating weak iron ore demand [10][11] - **Inventory**: Currently, steel mills are replenishing inventory on an as - needed basis. The inventory available days have increased by 1 day to 21 days compared to last week, but the absolute inventory of steel mills is still decreasing. As the New Year's Day holiday approaches, steel mills may have a small - scale replenishment, but the increase will be limited. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 157 million tons, a new high since mid - March 2022, and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [11] 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft, emphasizing the need to plan a number of major projects, carriers, and projects to drive the overall situation, accumulate new momentum for future development, and support current domestic demand expansion and economic stability [12] - From December 22 to 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that in 2026, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on controlling new supplies, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies according to local conditions, revitalizing and utilizing existing land through urban renewal and village - in - city renovation, and promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel markets, including prices, spreads, shipments, arrival volumes, inventory, production, and consumption data, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [14][22][32]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价震荡收十字星，总持仓下降 9850 手，盘面 01-02 价差缩窄至 190，现货铜跌 205 至 93470，现货贴水扩大 20 至 215，现货进口亏损扩大至 1600 以上，进口窗 口关闭，LME0-3back 扩大至 6.58，同时沪伦比值继续下跌，外盘价格表现持续强 于内盘。日内有 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Carbonate lithium futures hit a new high for the year, with total positions increasing by 5991 and the pace of capital entry slowing. The 01 - 05 spread widened to 1920. Spot prices across the industry chain rose, but demand showed signs of slowing at the end of the year. With an expected difference in supply and a slight slowdown in demand, the de - stocking intensity of carbonate lithium is expected to stop falling and rise, and carbonate lithium futures are likely to rise rather than fall [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures reached a new high for the year, with total positions increasing by 5991 and the capital entry pace slowing. The 01 - 05 spread widened to 1920. The price of electric carbonate rose by 500 to 99,500, Australian ore rose by 35 to 1420, mica ore rose by 205 to 3125, ternary materials rose by 200 - 300, iron - lithium materials rose by 115 - 120, and the electrolyte price remained flat. Demand at the end of the year slowed significantly, with the weekly production of power lithium batteries, ternary, and iron - lithium materials all slowing last week, and the weekly de - stocking volume slowing for three consecutive weeks [9] 2. Industry News - Exar Minera, a joint - venture between Ganfeng Lithium and Lithium Argentina (LAR), applied for Argentina's Large - scale Investment Incentive System (RIGI) for its Cauchari - Olaroz lithium salt lake project to support its capacity expansion plan. The project aims to increase the annual production scale by 45,000 tons of carbonate lithium, raising the total capacity to 85,000 tons per year. The project plans to use direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology instead of traditional brine evaporation. The Argentine government stated that RIGI - related decisions will take up to 45 working days if no additional information is required [10] - China's carbonate lithium imports in November 2025 were 22,055.19 tons, a 7.64% decrease from the previous month and a 14.66% increase year - on - year. Chile was the largest import source, with imports of 10,824.66 tons in that month, a 26.84% decrease from the previous month and an 11.19% decrease year - on - year. Argentina was the second - largest import source, with imports of 8,042.91 tons, a 10.57% increase from the previous month and a 28.28% increase year - on - year [10]