Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are neutral. The market is trading on the US sanctions against Venezuela. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in excess, short positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI opened at $56.63, closed at $57.95, with a high of $58.13, a low of $56.6, a daily increase of 2.53%, and a trading volume of 205,000 lots. Brent opened at $60.25, closed at $61.54, with a high of $61.66, a low of $60.11, a daily increase of 2.48%, and a trading volume of 323,700 lots. SC opened at 441.4 yuan/barrel, closed at 440.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 445.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 439.7 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.92%, and a trading volume of 79,800 lots [6] - **Geopolitical Impact**: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, directly affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types from Russia or Iran. The export disruption in Venezuela has a greater impact on China's asphalt market [6] - **Weekly Data**: Crude oil inventories continued to decline, and refinery crude input reached the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Refined oil performance was relatively weak, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing, which is not conducive to maintaining high refinery operating rates. The data is neutral. In the medium - term, oversupply will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [6] Group 5: Industry News - US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro on the 22nd, aiming to force Maduro to step down. The US will keep the oil on the seized tankers, which may be sold or used for strategic reserves [8] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that any action by Iran will be met with a "tough response" [8] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange decided to temporarily exempt the registration fee for delivery commodities from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Data sources include EIA, Bloomberg, and wind. The data involves global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, WTI and Brent spot prices, and US gasoline and diesel consumption [10][13][14]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 华东三级菜油：12-1 月：OI2605+530，2-3 月：OI2605+490。华东一级菜油： 12-1 月：OI ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price remained stable. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.29 yuan/jin, also down 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract fell 1.01% [7] - The 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3058, opened at 3045, reached a high of 3045, a low of 3019, and closed at 3027, down 31 or -1.01%, with a trading volume of 18147 and an open interest of 42239, an increase of 4654. The 2602 contract had a previous settlement price of 2897, opened at 2885, reached a high of 2894, a low of 2873, and closed at 2876, down 21 or -0.72%, with a trading volume of 113934 and an open interest of 190357, an increase of 4038. The 2603 contract had a previous settlement price of 2951, opened at 2945, reached a high of 2954, a low of 2925, and closed at 2936, down 15 or -0.51%, with a trading volume of 66149 and an open interest of 178126, an increase of 1359 [7] Core View - In the first half of last week, the spot price of eggs stabilized at a low level and then rose slightly. The price increase areas were mainly concentrated in the two - lake powder egg area, while the red egg price remained stable. From the demand perspective, mid - to late December will gradually enter a small peak season with the expectation of double - holiday stocking. It is expected that the spot price will mainly fluctuate slightly, and neither a callback nor an increase will show a trend [8] - In the futures market, last week, the near - month contracts fluctuated at a low level, and the far - month contracts declined to some extent. Taking the 02 - 08 spread as an example, the current spot - peak season spread on the futures market reached more than 1300, the largest spread for the same period in the past 8 years, indicating that the market has been actively pricing in the expectation that the decline in next year's inventory will drive up the egg price. During the process of the expectation becoming a reality, there will be repeated twists and turns. Considering that the far - month contracts are currently fully priced, it is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to fully adjust before entering the market and adopt a rolling operation strategy. The near - month contracts lack topics. The 02 and 03 contracts are in the absolute off - season, and the positive impact of the inventory inflection point is relatively not obvious. However, for the price to go down, the spot price increase in the peak season of January needs to be lower than expected, and the time has not come. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force, and the contracts may fluctuate at a low level, waiting for the guidance of the spot price increase in January on the near - month contracts [8] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, down 0.52% from the end of October (1.359 billion) and 1.368 billion at the end of September, ending the previous continuous growth. However, compared with 1.284 billion in the same period last year, the year - on - year increase still reached 5.3%, indicating significant pressure on the supply side [9] Replenishment - In November 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly increasing from 39.15 million in October but significantly decreasing by 13.5% compared with 45.69 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment in the past 4 months (August to November 2025) was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview Elimination Quantity - Recently, the trend of elimination quantity has decreased. According to Zhuochuang Information, in the three weeks up to December 18, the national culling volume of laying hens was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous downward trend [17] Elimination Age - As of December 18, the average culling age of laying hens was 486 days, the same as last week and 6 days earlier than last month [17]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report on the daily situation of the pig industry dated December 24, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the 23rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated upward, closing with a positive line. The highest was 11,435 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,335 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,251 lots to 344,624 lots [7] - On the 23rd, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.50 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] Supply - Side Analysis - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The proportion of second - fattening and hog retention was high in October, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival [8] - According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%, and the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal [8] Demand - Side Analysis - Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December [8] - With the continuous drop in temperature, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased successively, and the terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises remain high, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On December 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,400 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 4,500 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 21,000 heads month - on - month [8] Policy - Side Analysis - China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [8] Overall Market Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing. After the Winter Solstice stocking, demand has weakened, and the spot market is expected to fluctuate [8] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and hog retention in October, combined with the continuous release of production capacity, form double supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent epidemic situation in the north is more severe year - on - year, increasing the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13] - As of December 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 119.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 238.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising is 12.09 yuan/kg, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter is 11.42 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13] - As of the week of December 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, an increase of 0.55 kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, an increase of 1.37 kg from last month, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a decrease of 0.50 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The spot price declined slightly. The market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern due to the lack of improvement in fundamentals [4]. - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the output has limited room for further decline, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the production reduction of polysilicon has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8780 yuan/ton, up 1.68%, with a trading volume of 351,425 lots and an open interest of 213,776 lots, a net decrease of 7,830 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net decrease of 823 lots, and short positions had a net decrease of 611 lots [4]. - The spot price decreased slightly. The Sichuan 553 price was 9200 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8900 yuan/ton, the Sichuan 421 price was 9900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9450 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2. Market Outlook - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the production decline is limited, with a monthly expected output of 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production reduction has led to a monthly output decline to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, but the supply - demand remains loose [4]. - The current industrial inventory is 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.40%. The futures inventory is 45,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures price weakened and the discount led to insufficient return momentum. The fundamentals lack improvement expectations, the spot price is generally stable, and the market is expected to maintain a weak rebound pattern [4]. 3.3. Market News - On December 23, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 9,175 lots, an increase of 156 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25% [5]. - The silicone DMC market remained stable, with the current DMC price ranging from 13,500 to 14,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to rise steadily in the short term [5]. - The polysilicon spot price was generally stable, with individual enterprises raising their prices. The downstream procurement willingness was low, and the inventory was slowly increasing. The spot transaction price is expected to remain stable in the short term [5].

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Futures Contracts - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3053, the highest price was 3057, the lowest price was 3041, the closing price was 3047, with no change (0.00% change), the trading volume was 94,913, the open interest was 181,527, and the open interest decreased by 60,292 [6] - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3016, the opening price was 3029, the highest price was 3031, the lowest price was 2997, the closing price was 3006, down 10 (-0.33% change), the trading volume was 136,340, the open interest was 633,980, and the open interest increased by 3,895 [6] - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2740, the opening price was 2741, the highest price was 2749, the lowest price was 2736, the closing price was 2745, up 5 (0.18% change), the trading volume was 568,687, the open interest was 2,151,398, and the open interest increased by 17,263 [6] External Market - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. Last week, there was insufficient driving force on the external market, and the December monthly supply - demand report was mediocre. The market has recently focused on the US soybean export end and the performance of new crops in South America [6] - In terms of exports, China is still in the process of purchasing US soybeans in an orderly manner. As of mid - December, China has purchased over 7.65 million tons of US soybeans. However, currently, other countries are purchasing fewer US soybeans and more from Brazil, resulting in the current US soybean export sales volume being nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [6] - Regarding new crops in South America, the overall situation is bearish. Brazilian soybeans are gradually entering the critical growth period, with good rainfall overall. If this trend continues after January, Brazil is likely to have a bumper harvest. In Argentina, although it was dry in the early stage, it is still in the middle and late sowing stage and has not entered the critical weather - growth stage, and the rainfall is expected to improve in the next two weeks [6] Domestic Market - The increase in the auction frequency makes it difficult for the domestic soybean meal spot market to be in short supply in the future, and the current soybean inventory at ports is still at a relatively high level, with overall insufficient bullish factors. In the short term, domestic futures are expected to be weaker than the external market and have a certain demand for a supplementary decline. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's adjustment of production in January, but there is no driving force at the current time [6] Group 3: Industry News USDA Export Sales Report - As of the week ending December 4, US soybean export sales increased by a net of 1.5525 million tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the current market year was 1.5521 million tons, a 40% increase from the previous week and a 34% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The market had expected a net increase of 0.8 - 2 million tons. Among them, the net increase in export sales to the Chinese mainland was 1.011 million tons [7] - The net increase in US soybean export sales for the next market year was 40,000 tons, and the market had expected a net increase of 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 1.0711 million tons, a 33% increase from the previous week and a 6% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Among them, the shipments to the Chinese mainland were 71,000 tons. The new sales of US soybeans for the current market year were 1.6726 million tons, and the new sales for the next market year were 40,000 tons [7][8] AgRural Forecast - AgRural predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 180.4 million tons, higher than the 178.5 million tons previously estimated in November. Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, with a production of 171.5 million tons in the previous season [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current rise in copper prices lacks demand support and is mainly driven by macro and supply factors. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise due to sentiment factors [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper broke through the recent trading range, with the main contract reaching a maximum of 94,730. The 01 - 02 spread widened to 210. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated significantly, and the market's previous concerns about the impact of the interest rate hike did not materialize. The US stock AI sector rebounded sharply, and the market's bullish sentiment recovered. The sharp rise in the precious metals sector also drove copper prices higher [10] - Spot copper rose 1,325 to 93,675 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened 35 to 195. At the end of the year, downstream demand was weak. China's social inventory increased 0.26 to 16.84 million tons compared to last Thursday. Short - term copper prices were driven up by macro factors, while downstream demand was suppressed by high copper prices [10] - The LME 0 - 3 structure turned to back at 4.73 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.85. The spot import loss widened to around 1,600, indicating limited subsequent imports of copper [10] - Chinese smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at 0 dollars/ton and 0 cents/pound, suggesting a tight copper ore market in 2026 [10] 3.2 Industry News - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the probability of the US imposing a refined copper tariff in the first half of 2026 from 80% to 25%. The new base scenario (55% probability) is that a 15% tariff will be announced in the first half of 2026 but postponed until 2027 to take effect, and may be raised to 30% in 2028. This adjustment is based on the US government's policy tendency to reduce interference with enterprises [11] - The International Energy Forum (IEF) reported that over 60% of global key mineral demand is met through international trade. The copper and nickel markets may face substantial shortages in the mid - 2030s, and lithium supply remains concentrated in a few countries. Governments are accelerating their responses by implementing strategic planning, export controls, and domestic processing authorizations [12]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures reached a new high this year, with total positions increasing by 26,408 lots, and the 05 - 01 spread widening to 1,900. Spot electric carbon rose 1,350 to 99,000. The trade market's premium/discount to the main contract was reported at (-3,500, -1,500). Australian ore rose 50 to 1,385, lithium mica ore rose 85 to 2,920, ternary materials rose 500 - 1,000, iron - lithium rose 315 - 330, and electrolyte remained flat [9]. - The slowdown in demand at the end of the year was obvious. The weekly production of power lithium batteries, ternary, and iron - lithium all slowed down last week, and the weekly de - stocking volume slowed down for three consecutive weeks [9]. - Overall, there was an expected difference on the supply side of carbonate lithium, and demand slowed down slightly. It was expected that the de - stocking intensity of carbonate lithium would stop falling and rise, and carbonate lithium futures were prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. Group 3: Industry News - Over 60% of global key mineral demand was met through international trade, making the global supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, export controls, and refining bottlenecks. The supply - side vulnerability was increasing as the demand for major energy - transition minerals was expected to rise sharply by 2040. Copper and nickel markets might face shortages in the mid - 2030s, and lithium supply was concentrated in a few countries, with the concentration of the refining segment increasing from about 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024. Governments had accelerated their responses, with the number of key mineral policies issued since 2020 nearly doubling that of the previous two decades [12]. - Battery metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt had faced a third difficult year, struggling to digest the supply wave after the 2022 price surge. However, the electric vehicle revolution continued, and the demand for batteries and battery - forming metals was still growing rapidly. Chinese companies were leading a technological revolution to develop more powerful batteries at lower costs. Not all battery metals would succeed in the intense competition. In the first 11 months of 2025, global electric vehicle sales increased by 21% year - on - year to 18.5 million. The Chinese electric vehicle market was mainly dominated by lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which were safer, cheaper, and had a narrowing performance gap compared to NCM batteries. In 2024, LFP batteries accounted for 48% of global electric vehicle batteries, and Macquarie Bank expected this proportion to rise to 65% by 2029 [13].