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纯碱、玻璃日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:25
Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash shows a downward trend, and the demand and inventory are marginally decreasing. The pattern of weak supply - demand imbalance continues. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate at the bottom, and in the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of shorting on rebounds can be considered [8] - The spot performance of glass is below market expectations. The supply is stable, the inventory is high, and the demand recovery is hard to sustain. However, the cold - repair of production lines may help achieve a new supply - demand balance. The glass price is at a low level and has limited room for further decline [9] Summary by Directory 1. Review and Operation Suggestions of Soda Ash and Glass Market - **Soda Ash Market** - On November 27, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated strongly. The closing price was 1,176 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, with a daily reduction of 27,403 lots [7] - The supply decreased, with this week's output falling below 700,000 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.60% week - on - week. The demand showed a marginal decline, with the total shipment volume down 3.65% week - on - week. The inventory decreased 1.75% week - on - week [8] - The imbalance between supply and demand continued. Although the output and operating rate decreased, the absolute output was still high. The cost provided support, but high inventory restricted price increases [8] - **Glass Market** - The spot performance was below expectations, and the impact of the concentrated shutdown of production lines in Shahe was also less than expected. The supply was stable, the inventory was high, and the demand recovery was hard to sustain [9] - The decline in industry profits accelerated cold - repair. About 5,000 tons of production lines were planned for cold - repair by the end of the year, which could help reduce inventory and achieve a new supply - demand balance. The glass price was at a low level and had limited room for further decline [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, as well as data on soda ash's weekly output and enterprise inventory, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text [11][15]
建信期货原油日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:20
Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected in the week of the 21st, and refined oil inventories rebounded across the board, with the data being bearish. Geopolitical tensions have eased overall, but there are still many uncertainties regarding Russia's stance on the U.S.-proposed agreement. The U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are about to take effect, and although the total Russian oil exports have not declined significantly, the proportion of oil with unknown destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. Considering the significant inventory build - up pressure in the 4th quarter, the overall view on crude oil is bearish. Operationally, consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $58.05, closed at $58.55, with a high of $58.72, a low of $57.66, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 20.41 million lots. Brent crude oil opened at $61.94, closed at $62.44, with a high of $62.60, a low of $61.53, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 34.25 million lots. SC crude oil opened at 442.8 yuan/barrel, closed at 447.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 448.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.8 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 7.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish strategy on crude oil. Consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [7] 2. Industry News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium exported over 65.5 million barrels of crude oil through its system from the beginning of the year to November 21. The UK government will allow new oil and gas production activities near existing oil fields but will not issue new licenses for exploring new oil and gas fields. A new oil and gas price mechanism will replace the energy profit tax, which is expected to end in April 2030 or earlier. European Commission President von der Leyen said the European Commission is ready to submit a legal text on using frozen Russian assets [10] 3. Data Overview - Various data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, U.S. gasoline consumption, and U.S. diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][12][15][21]
建信期货国债日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:20
1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index Futures) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerating decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the positive factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize, and the bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. In the short term, during the data vacuum period and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is waiting for policies. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short - term uncertainties, they do not affect the long - term allocation behavior of institutions. The negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven, and as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the new regulations for public funds still exist, and the bond market continues to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen comprehensively, with the long - end yields rising by about 1bp. As of 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 reported 1.845%, up 1.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market is loose and is expected to cross the month smoothly. The central bank made a net injection of 564 million yuan today. The inter - bank funding sentiment index is stable, and the funds are becoming looser. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuates narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rises 2.8bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuates narrowly around 1.61 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: The positive factors for the bond market are accumulating, but in the short term, it is difficult for the easing to materialize. The bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices. After the tax period this week, the capital market may become looser, which will support the bond market. The impact of the new regulations on fund sales fees is short - term, and the negative impact of the central bank's bond - buying is unproven. As long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates continues and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment provides a good opportunity for layout [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a Chinese business delegation to visit the United States in early December. The delegation will involve various fields and will conduct extensive exchanges with the US business and political circles [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in the past two years to support "hard investment" projects, and has also promoted a series of "soft construction" measures [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to study and formulate cost recognition standards for disorderly price competition to maintain market price order [13]. - The Ministry of Commerce has released the 2025 "Country Trade Guide" to help enterprises explore diversified markets [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on November 27, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: The report mentions the changes in inter - bank repurchase rates and SHIBOR, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [27][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps, but specific data is mainly presented in the form of figures [37].
建信期货棉花日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:20
Industry - The industry under research is cotton [1] Date - The report date is November 28, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price for machine - picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) is around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a delivered basis. Some lower - priced ones are in the range of 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. The lower basis for the same - quality spot is CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher selling basis is CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine - picked cotton of Grade 41 (non - light - spotted, double 29, impurity within 3.5) in Northern Xinjiang is CF01 + 900 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has weakened, with fewer new orders. Downstream buyers are mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. High - count yarns have maintained a relatively good sales trend recently, with prices basically stable. The prices of other types of yarns have either remained stable or declined, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [7] - The market for all - cotton garment greige fabrics has remained sluggish. The inventory level is still on the rise. For conventional varieties, due to poor demand, there is severe homogeneous competition, and some differentiated varieties also have low demand. In the export market, there is an obvious shortage of terminal orders, and the competition for orders among greige fabric mills is fierce [7] Operational Suggestions - Overseas markets have a time - lag in data. The easing of Sino - US relations has boosted a rebound, and they will mainly follow the domestic market in the short term. As of November 26, the cumulative inspection volume in China has reached 3.959 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous day. The number of market orders downstream has not changed much. The spinning mills' operating rates are maintained, and the downstream finished - product inventory pressure is not high. Spinning enterprises are making rigid - demand purchases of raw materials. With limited changes in the fundamentals and cost support, it is advisable to try long positions on dips and pay attention to the performance of the upper - level resistance [8] 2. Industry News - According to CFTC, as of the week ending October 14, the number of non - commercial long positions of funds in CFTC US cotton futures was 73,228 (+2,326), turning from a decrease to an increase; the number of short positions was 138,860 (+9,536), also turning from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE position was 294,187 (+15,248), increasing for the eighth consecutive week. The net - long ratio was - 22.3%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous period and a decrease of 18 percentage points year - on - year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [18][19][21]
建信期货沥青日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:20
Report Information - Report Type: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot price of asphalt in East China decreased today, while prices in other regions remained generally stable [6] - Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to continue producing asphalt after a brief restart, while Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly [6] - Cold air has affected most parts of China again. Road demand in the Northeast and Northwest has stagnated, but there is still rush - repair demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to remain stable [6] - Oil prices lack support, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, the basis has significantly narrowed, and the market will mainly move in a volatile manner [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3027 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3007 yuan/ton, the highest was 3040 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3003 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.41%, and the trading volume was 222,900 lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3020 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3012 yuan/ton, the highest was 3033 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3004 yuan/ton, the decline was 1.08%, and the trading volume was 80,500 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of asphalt in East China decreased, and prices in other regions were generally stable. Some refineries plan to resume production, and the operating rate is expected to rebound slightly. Demand in the Northeast and Northwest has stagnated, while there is still rush - repair demand in Shandong [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 2960 - 3470 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The supply of asphalt spot resources is abundant, and short - term production may remain at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Some refineries are eager to seize market demand and sell contracts at reduced prices, but rigid demand is still being released, and the spot quotes of refineries and traders remain stable for the time being [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3150 - 3400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Demand is relatively weak, the trends of crude oil and asphalt futures are unclear, and market participants are cautious. Recently, some major enterprises in East China have resumed asphalt production, increasing supply pressure and driving down spot prices [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14]
建信期货锌期货日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 02:01
行业 锌期货日报 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 一、 行情回顾 | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22350 | 22355 | 22410 | 22280 | 15 | 0.07 | 26315 | -7427 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:30
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The spot SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37, better than expected, but shipping companies' December price hikes were less than expected. Maersk's quotes are aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price increase space, and there is a possibility of other airlines following Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Considering February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre - Chinese New Year shipping rush, and short - selling has low cost - effectiveness. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the April contract being overvalued due to the influence, and the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Spot market: This week, the SCFIS index rose 20.7% week - on - week to 1639.37, better than expected, but shipping companies' December price hikes were less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price increase space, and there is a possibility of other airlines following Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Consider the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From November 17 to 21, the China Export Container Shipping Market was basically stable, with the comprehensive index of the long - haul route market declining. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on November 21 was 1393.56 points, down 4.0% from the previous period. European route: The eurozone's November consumer confidence index was - 14.2, lower than expected, and the spot market booking price declined. Mediterranean route: The supply - demand fundamentals were slightly better than the European route, and the market freight rate rose slightly. North American route: Due to the US government shutdown, the September non - farm report was postponed. Although the number of new jobs was better than expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the market freight rate continued to decline. There were also developments in the Israel - Hamas conflict and Iran's military actions [9][10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.3.1集运现货价格 (Container Shipping Spot Prices) - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on November 24 was 1639.37, up 20.7% from November 17; SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1107.85, down 10.5% from November 17 [12] 3.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 (Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes) - Provided trading data for multiple contracts of container shipping European line futures on November 26, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 (Shipping - Related Data Charts) - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]
贵金属日评-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:23
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that in the short - to - medium term, multiple factors are at play in the precious metals market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weaker US dollar drive up the prices of gold and silver, but the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The London gold price is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce for a longer period. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and currency system support the upward trend of precious metal prices. The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next six months and one year, the price of London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and the price of London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: The support of New York Fed officials for a near - term interest rate cut by the Fed, weak US consumer spending and confidence data, and a rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation to over 80% along with a decline in the US dollar index below 100 have pushed up the prices of gold and silver. However, the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation have curbed the upward momentum of gold prices. It is not advisable to over - pursue long or short positions at present [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation support the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process, and the interest rate cut may be larger than needed. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate for the Japanese prime minister and the global trade and currency system restructuring and geopolitical risks continue to provide demand for gold. The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. After the significant correction of gold and silver prices since late October, investors should watch for opportunities to go long again [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 947.69 with a 0.02% increase, the Shanghai Silver Index at 12,222 with a 0.81% increase, the Gold T + D at 941.20 with a 0.05% increase, and the Silver T + D at 12,205 with a 0.60% increase [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, all sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to advance a US - supported framework agreement to end the war with Russia, and Trump has instructed envoys to meet with relevant parties. There are only a few points of disagreement left in the negotiation [17]. - **US Fed News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent is conducting the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that White House economic advisor Hassett is the favorite, but the White House refuted this [17]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in September increased by only 0.2% after a 0.6% increase in August, lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand rebounded 0.3% in September, mainly driven by a 3.5% increase in energy costs and a 1.1% increase in food prices. The consumer confidence index in November dropped to a seven - month low [18].
建信期货国债日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:22
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still significantly drags down credit expansion. Monetary policy has started to send signals of easing, and bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, it is difficult for easing to materialize in the short term, and the bond market is in a period of shock and energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to opportunities for bottom - up layout. In the short term, it mainly depends on the capital market and risk - aversion sentiment. After the tax period this week, the capital market may further loosen, which will support the bond market. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring uncertain disturbances, the impact is mainly short - term. The downward trend of interest rates remains and the adjustment risk is limited, and the impact from the sentiment side provides a good layout opportunity [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions a. Market Conditions - Rumors of new public fund regulations, bond fund redemptions leading to short - selling hedging, and the central bank's bond - buying scale being lower than expected, combined with the rebound of the A - share market, caused treasury bond futures to close sharply lower [8] - The yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds across all maturities increased, with the long - end yields rising by about 2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.8375%, up 1.8bp [9] - The inter - bank capital market was loose, and it was expected to cross the month smoothly. There were 310.5 billion yuan of due funds in the open market, and the central bank injected 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable, and the capital market was loosening. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 0.5bp to 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rose 2bp to 1.47%, and the medium - and long - term capital was stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.61% - 1.63% [10] b. Conclusion - Although bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating, it is difficult for easing to materialize in the short term, and the bond market is still in a shock and energy - accumulating period. Attention should be paid to bottom - up layout opportunities. In the short term, as it is in a data vacuum period and important meetings are approaching in December, the market's wait - and - see sentiment towards policies may be strong. After the tax period this week, the capital market may further loosen, which will support the bond market. The new regulations on fund sales fees bring short - term uncertain disturbances, but the downward trend of interest rates remains and the adjustment risk is limited. The impact from the sentiment side provides a good layout opportunity [11][12] 2. Industry News - On the evening of November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. The two sides emphasized the importance of Sino - US cooperation and China's stance on the Taiwan issue [13] - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption, proposing to accelerate the layout of new fields and tracks, and carry out special activities for the innovation and application of typical cases in key industries [13] - The State Council Information Office will hold a regular policy briefing on November 27. Relevant officials will introduce policies and measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption [14] - US President Trump said that his team has made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a peace plan is being finalized. Ukrainian officials expect President Zelensky to visit the US in November [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on November 26, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. are provided [6] - **Capital Market**: Information on the inter - bank capital market, including the net withdrawal of funds in the open market, changes in the weighted overnight and 7 - day interest rates of inter - bank deposits, and the stability of medium - and long - term capital [10] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on interest rate swap curves such as Shibor3M and FR007 is provided [36]
建信期货棉花日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:22
Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed-price quotations for machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) were mostly around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan on a legal weight basis, with a small number of low prices between 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. The lower basis for the same-quality spot was CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher sales basis was CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang (excluding light speckled stains, double 29/impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 900 and above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened, with new orders decreasing. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. High-count yarns maintained a good sales trend recently, with prices basically stable. The prices of other types of yarns were stable with a slight decline, and some manufacturers reduced prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The all-cotton garment greige fabric market remained sluggish. The inventory level was still on the rise. Due to poor demand, there was severe homogeneous competition for conventional varieties, and the performance of some differentiated varieties was also mediocre, with scarce demand. In the export market, there was an obvious shortage of terminal orders, and the competition for orders among greige fabric mills was fierce [7]. - Overseas market: As of the week ending October 9, the weekly signing volume of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/26 season was 35,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 21% and an increase of 1% compared with the average level of the previous four weeks. Among them, Vietnam signed 18,500 tons, and China signed 3,800 tons. Domestic market: As of November 25, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide reached 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Currently, there has been little change in the market order volume downstream. The operating rate of yarn mills remained stable, and the inventory pressure of downstream finished products was not high. Spinning mills made purchases of raw materials based on rigid demand. With limited changes in the fundamentals, it is advisable to try to go long at low prices under cost support and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of November 25, 2025, a total of 1,050 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume nationwide was 17,138,406 bales, totaling 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 16,978,379 bales, totaling 3.8331 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland areas was 82,303 bales, totaling 182,000 tons [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to the cotton market, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian Rupee exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][21]