Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货多晶硅日报-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:34
Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 02, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract was strong. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 57,705 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.26%. The trading volume was 338,696 lots, and the open interest was 142,133 lots, a net decrease of 2,626 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of n-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Market outlook: The policy is in a vacuum period, and the fundamentals have not improved. The official and enterprise consensus is to emphasize stability. The intraday increase of polycrystalline silicon once exceeded 5%. There was no significant improvement in the policy and fundamentals. The market once again speculated on the shortage of delivery products. After reaching the upper limit of the range, there was a divergence in funds. The bulls reduced their positions and the price declined. It is recommended to be cautious and bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see, paying attention to risk control [4] Group 3: Market News - Warehouse receipts: On December 01, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 1,340 lots, an increase of 10 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Silicon wafer prices: This week, silicon wafer prices were weak. The average transaction price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm/130μm) was 1.17 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 6.40%. The average transaction price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130μm) was 1.2 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 4.00%. The average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/130μm) was 1.5 yuan/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 5.06% [5] - Downstream prices: This week, downstream battery prices decreased slightly compared with last week, while component prices remained stable. The mainstream battery price was 0.27 - 0.28 yuan/W, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W from last week. The mainstream component price was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, unchanged from last week [5] - Industry statement: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and relevant work is progressing steadily. All rumors on the Internet are false information. The association will fight against malicious short-selling of the photovoltaic industry [5] - Production forecast: The Silicon Industry Branch of the association expects the output in November to be about 118,000 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The output in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:33
Report Overview - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Key Points 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg contracts 2601, 2602, and 2603 all declined. The 2601 contract dropped by 2.47%, the 2602 by 1.21%, and the 2603 by 1.03%. The national egg prices were stable, with the average prices in the main production areas at 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan/jin from the previous day, and 3.28 yuan/jin in the main sales areas, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Core View**: The spot prices stabilized and then rose, and the futures market rose strongly a few days ago. However, due to the weekend price increase falling short of expectations, there was a weak correction today. Traders are willing to wait for the small peak season, reducing supply pressure. The 01 contract is in the peak - season contract, while the 02 is in the absolute off - season. If egg prices strengthen, one can focus on the potential opportunity of the 1 - 2 spread widening, and short - sellers are advised to lay out in post - festival contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to the end of October 2024 [9]. - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than that in September 2025. The cumulative replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, less than the same period of the previous year [9]. - **Culling Volume**: From the three weeks up to November 20, 2025, the national culling volumes of chickens were 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively, with an overall slight increase compared to the previous period [9][10]. - **Culling Age**: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of chickens was 492 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 7 days earlier than the previous month, indicating an accelerated culling speed [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profits, average prices in the main egg - producing areas, the seasonal trend of egg 12, the basis of the egg 12 contract, and the egg 12 - 02 spread [11][12][15]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:33
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Soda Ash: The current weak supply - demand imbalance in the soda ash market has marginally eased but not fundamentally changed. In the short term, it will likely maintain a bottom - grinding and oscillating trend. In the medium - to - long - term, if there is a phased price rebound, a strategy of selling on rebounds can be adopted [9]. - Glass: The glass market is currently weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation pattern. In the short term, it will likely continue this trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production line cold repairs and changes in real estate demand [11]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On December 1, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1176 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.50%, with a daily reduction of 24,299 lots [8]. - Supply is decreasing, with this week's production falling below 700,000 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.60% week - on - week. Demand is weak, with total shipments down 3.65% week - on - week. Inventory decreased 1.75% week - on - week [9]. Glass - The glass market is weaker than expected, with prices in a low - level oscillation. Spot prices do not support the market, and the supply reduction from the concentrated production line shutdown in the Shahe area did not meet expectations [10][11]. - Supply is stable, and inventory pressure is high. Demand is weak, especially in the real estate market. However, due to low profits, about 5,000 tons of production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs by the end of the year [11]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides data on soda ash and glass futures trading on December 1, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, change rate, open interest, and open interest change [7]. - It also includes figures related to soda ash and glass, such as price trends, weekly production, enterprise inventory, market price, and flat glass production [13][18][20]
贵金属日评-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:33
行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 2 日 宏观金融团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情: 消息显示特朗普将对委内瑞拉发动空中和地面行动,地缘政治风险推动隔夜 伦敦黄金反弹至 4200 美元/盎司上方,中国印度年底首饰消费旺季预期也提供上 涨动能;由于美联储降息改善美国甚至全球经济增长前景,而且中国广期所铂钯 品种上市带动整体交易氛围,近期工业属性较强的银铂钯走势强于黄金,伦敦金 银比值一度跌破 74。中短期内多空因素交织,我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的波动区间内运行更长时间以积累再次突破动能,目前阶段不宜过 ...
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:32
行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 2 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 能源化工研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料油) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业硅) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 每日报告 | 表1:期货市场行情 | ...
建信期货生猪日报-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:32
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,1日生猪主力2603合约小幅高开后震荡走跌,尾盘收阴,最高11320 元/吨,最低 11175 元/吨,收盘报 11205 元/吨,较 ...
白糖日报-20251202
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:32
1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: December 2, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5405 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position reduction of 10,944 lots [7] - SR605 closed at 5333 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a position increase of 3246 lots [7] - US Sugar 03 closed at 15.21 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.46%, with a position reduction of 2136 lots [7] - US Sugar 05 closed at 14.70 cents/pound, up 0.02 cents or 0.14%, with a position increase of 1719 lots [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures edged up slightly, with the main March contract rising 0.46% to 15.21 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract fell 0.23% to $435.50/ton. The market is waiting for the production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of November, and raw sugar is mainly oscillating [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract maintained oscillation. The 01 contract closed at 5405 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.04%, with a reduction of 10,944 lots. Domestic new sugar prices were lowered. The new sugar price in Nanning is 5530 yuan/ton, and in Kunming is 5500 yuan/ton. The number of sugar mills starting production in the south is increasing, and new sugar prices are falling. Speculative short - sellers in Zhengzhou sugar 01 are gradually leaving the market, driving up the futures price, and it is expected to end in a weak oscillation [8] 3. Industry News Thailand's Sugar Policy - Thailand's Sugarcane and Sugar Board announced that the benchmark price of sugarcane for the 2025/26 crushing season is set at 890 Thai baht/ton (corresponding to a sugar content of 10%), with a price floating standard of 53.40 Thai baht per 1% sugar content and a sugar production and sales subsidy of 381.43 Thai baht/ton [9] StoneX's Forecast - StoneX predicted a global sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 annual report, the highest since the 2017/18 season. Global sugar inventories are expected to increase by 5% to 77.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 39.9%, close to the 20 - year historical average [9] - StoneX lowered its sugar production forecast for Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 crushing season from 42.1 million tons to 41.5 million tons, while raising its ethanol production forecast by 100 million liters to a record 36.1 billion liters. The expected sugarcane crushing volume remains unchanged at 620.5 million tons, an increase of 3.6% compared to the previous season [9] Yunnan's Sugar Production - As of the end of November, 10 sugar mills in Yunnan had started production, 5 more than the same period last year. However, due to machine running - in at the beginning of production, the average sugar yield was about 10%, down 1 percentage point year - on - year. The new sugar production in Yunnan in November is expected to be about 40,000 tons, compared with 38,600 tons in the same period of the previous season [10] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, and Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind, Pan - Sugar Technology, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [11][14][21] - The report also provides trading volume, long - position and short - position data of top 20 futures companies in the sugar futures market, with a total trading volume of 199,924 lots, a decrease of 17,021 lots; total long - positions of 248,086 lots, a decrease of 8,209 lots; and total short - positions of 268,090 lots, a decrease of 10,255 lots [21]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251201
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable, and the industry has a consensus on price support. However, the industry lacks internal improvement drivers. The production of silicon materials in November and December is expected to drop below 120,000 tons, but the weak terminal demand pressure is gradually transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The industrial profit is currently concentrated in the silicon material end, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers and components are still falling this week. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells has decreased simultaneously, and there is no obvious sign of inventory reduction in the industry. The policy is in a vacuum period, and the fundamentals have not improved, but the official and enterprise consensus emphasizes stability. The futures price will run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract is running strongly. The closing price of the PS2601 contract is 56,425 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.66%. The trading volume is 181,263 lots, and the open interest is 144,759 lots, with a net increase of 3,173 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon re-feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged from the previous period [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The spot price of polysilicon remains stable, and the industry has a consensus on price support. However, the industry lacks internal improvement drivers. The production of silicon materials in November and December is expected to drop below 120,000 tons, but the weak terminal demand pressure is gradually transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The industrial profit is currently concentrated in the silicon material end, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers and components are still falling this week. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells has decreased simultaneously, and there is no obvious sign of inventory reduction in the industry. The policy is in a vacuum period, and the fundamentals have not improved, but the official and enterprise consensus emphasizes stability. The futures price will run cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 1,330 lots, a decrease of 5,960 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - This week, the price of silicon wafers is running weakly. The average transaction price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm/130μm) is 1.17 yuan/piece, a decrease of 6.40% from last week; the average transaction price of N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130μm) is 1.2 yuan/piece, a decrease of 4.00% from last week; the average transaction price of N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/130μm) is 1.5 yuan/piece, a decrease of 5.06% from last week [5]. - According to research, the price of downstream batteries has decreased slightly compared with last week, and the price of components has remained stable compared with last week. The mainstream price of battery cells is 0.27 - 0.28 yuan/W, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W from last week, and the mainstream price of components is 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, remaining unchanged from last week [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the association and various enterprises in the industry are working together, and relevant work is being steadily promoted. All the rumors circulated on the Internet are false information. Please pay attention to identification and make careful decisions. The association firmly safeguards national interests and industry interests and will fight to the end against the malicious acts of trying to profit from smearing and short - selling the photovoltaic industry through rumors [5]. - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimates that the production in November is about 118,000 tons, a decrease of 14% from 137,000 tons in October; the production in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5].
建信期货工业硅日报-20251201
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:15
Report Information - Report date: December 01, 2025 [2] - Report type: Industrial Silicon Daily Report - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 197,891 lots, and the open interest was 211,799 lots, a net decrease of 25,849 lots. The spot price increased slightly this week. The weekly reduction in industrial silicon production continued to increase, with an estimated output of about 386,000 tons in November. The demand side also weakened synchronously. Organic silicon enterprises reached a consensus on production cuts, with an output of 218,400 tons in November and a decline in the operating rate starting in December. Polysilicon was in the season of seasonal production cuts, with an estimated output of 118,000 tons in November. The imbalance between supply and demand has not been reversed. The centralized cancellation of futures warehouse receipts increased the liquidity of the spot market, but the high inventory remained unchanged, and the price will face real selling pressure after rebounding to a high level. The price of the 01 contract recently rebounded after being supported by the spot price, but the upside space was limited, and it will fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures market**: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 197,891 lots, and the open interest was 211,799 lots, a net decrease of 25,849 lots [4]. - **Spot market**: The spot price increased in some regions today. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and that in Yunnan was 9,200 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade silicon in Sichuan was 10,100 yuan/ton, that in Xinjiang was 9,700 yuan/ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Supply side**: The weekly reduction in industrial silicon production continued to increase, with an estimated output of about 386,000 tons in November [4]. - **Demand side**: The demand side also weakened synchronously. Organic silicon enterprises reached a consensus on production cuts, with an output of 218,400 tons in November and a decline in the operating rate starting in December. Polysilicon was in the season of seasonal production cuts, with an estimated output of 118,000 tons in November [4]. - **Market situation**: The imbalance between supply and demand has not been reversed. The centralized cancellation of futures warehouse receipts increased the liquidity of the spot market, but the high inventory remained unchanged, and the price will face real selling pressure after rebounding to a high level. The price of the 01 contract recently rebounded after being supported by the spot price, but the upside space was limited, and it will fluctuate [4]. 3.3 Market News - On November 28, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,596 lots, a net decrease of 32,959 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.36 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 35.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.78%. In October 2025, the export volume of China's primary polysiloxane in the form of silicone was 40,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.65%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of primary polysiloxane in the form of silicone was 460,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [5].
建信期货豆粕日报-20251201
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:15
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: December 1, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - The US soybean futures contract on the external market was closed today, with the main contract at 1130 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply and demand report showed that the yield per unit was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending inventory was slightly lowered to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The US NOPA's October crushing data exceeded expectations and reached a record high for a single month [6]. - The domestic soybean meal fluctuated at a high level this week following the CBOT soybeans. After the China - US reached a phased agreement, the domestic soybean meal returned to the cost - pricing model of CBOT soybeans. There is support at the bottom due to cost increase and low crushing profit, but there is also inventory pressure [6]. Operational Suggestions - The recent volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle short - selling strategy [6]. Contract Data | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3039 | 3055 | 3060 | 3041 | 3044 | 5 | 0.16% | 622626 | 1297132 | - 48625 | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3015 | 3054 | 3054 | 3026 | 3036 | 21 | 0.70% | 95620 | 543481 | 13990 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2836 | 2828 | 2855 | 2828 | 2845 | 9 | 0.32% | 398648 | 1462928 | 46714 | [6] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, with a predicted crushing volume of 60.5 million tons and an export volume of 111 million tons in 2026 [10].