Jian Xin Qi Huo
Search documents
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251201
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:14
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the country remained stable today, with the average price in the main producing areas at 2.99 yuan/jin and that in the main consuming areas at 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract rose 0.73%. After the spot price stabilized in the previous few days, it increased in some areas today. The futures market rose strongly, mainly due to the anticipation being factored in early. As the spot price has reached a phased bottom and the demand expectation for the double festivals in December is hard to disprove, the market generally believes that the egg price may be slightly stronger in early December. Traders are willing to wait for the subsequent small peak season to sell, reducing the supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the spot price will rise as expected this weekend and next week. If the egg price continues to strengthen, there may be an opportunity to expand the 1 - 2 spread, and short - sellers are advised to lay out positions in post - festival contracts. The 01 contract's rebound is based on phased expectations, and its sustainability depends on the spot market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of eggs opened at 3282, closed at 3293, up 24 points or 0.73% from the previous settlement price, with a trading volume of 185,804 and an open interest of 170,648, an increase of 154,196. The 2602 contract opened at 3056, closed at 3073, up 24 points or 0.79%, with a trading volume of 60,460 and an open interest of 135,972, an increase of 4,315. The 2512 contract opened at 2960, closed at 2907, down 41 points or - 1.39%, with a trading volume of 13,969 and an open interest of 339, a decrease of 10,419 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: If the egg price runs strongly in the future, pay attention to the potential opportunity of the 1 - 2 spread expansion. Short - sellers are advised to lay out positions in post - festival contracts. Treat the 01 contract's rebound as a phased expectation, and its sustainability requires support from the spot market [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.66% from the end of September 2025 (1.368 billion), ending the previous continuous growth trend, but an increase of 5.59% compared with the end of October 2024 (1.287 billion) [9]. - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks of sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025, and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period last year [9]. - **Elimination Volume**: As of November 20, 2025, the elimination volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The elimination volume fluctuated recently, but generally increased slightly compared with the previous period [9][10]. - **Elimination Age**: As of November 20, 2025, the average elimination age of laying hens was 492 days, one day earlier than last week and seven days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated elimination speed [10].
贵金属日评-20251201
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:14
行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 1 日 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情: 因美联储降息预期继续发酵,中国印度年底首饰消费旺季即将到来,同时特 朗普称美国将很快对委内瑞拉展开地面行动,旺季需求预期、流动性溢价预期和 避险需求推动近期贵金属偏强运行,伦敦黄金进一步反弹至 4200 美元/盎司附近; 由于美联储降息改善美国甚至全球经济增长前景,工业属性较强的白银走势强于 黄金,伦敦金银比值跌破 78,在铂钯上市炒作背景下短期内白银仍将强于黄金。 中短期内多空因素交织,我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的 ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:37
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping company's price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's price is the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush, and the cost-effectiveness of shorting is not high. Pay attention to the possibility of the April contract being overestimated and the positive spread opportunity between the February and April contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping company's price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's price is the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Pay attention to the actual situation of cargo volume and price increase [8] - Operation Suggestion: Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush, and the cost-effectiveness of shorting is not high. Pay attention to the possibility of the April contract being overestimated and the positive spread opportunity between the February and April contracts [8] 2. Industry News - China's Export Container Shipping Market: From November 17th to November 21st, China's export container shipping market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the long-distance routes showed an adjustment trend, with the composite index falling. On November 21st, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1393.56 points, a 4.0% decrease from the previous period [9] - European Routes: The initial value of the eurozone's consumer confidence index in November was -14.2, lower than market expectations. The transportation demand lacked further growth momentum, and the spot market booking prices declined. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1367 US dollars/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The supply-demand fundamentals were slightly better than those of the European routes, and the market freight rates increased slightly. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was 2055 US dollars/TEU, a 1.3% increase from the previous period [9] - North American Routes: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non-farm payrolls report was postponed to this week. Although the number of new jobs in September was better than expected, the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. The transportation demand growth was weak, and the market freight rates continued to decline. On November 21st, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the western and eastern United States were 1645 US dollars/FEU and 2384 US dollars/FEU respectively, a 9.8% and 8.3% decrease from the previous period [10] - International Situation: Tensions between Israel and Hamas escalated, and the situation in the Middle East was tense. The United States has informed mediators and partner countries that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will be allowed to resume military operations [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS Index: The SCFIS index for European routes rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37, while the index for US Western routes fell 10.5% to 1107.85 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Futures Contracts: The trading data of container shipping futures contracts on November 27th showed that most contracts declined, with the EC2606 contract having the largest decline of 5.40% [6] 3.3 Shipping-Related Data Trends - Shipping Data: The report provides trends in shipping-related data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai-Europe basic port freight rates [17][21]
碳酸锂期货日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:28
Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The carbonate lithium futures price rose and then fell, with the decline expanding at the end of the session, closing at 95,850. The spot price increased by 500 to 93,300. The prices of Australian ore, mica, 6F, ternary and lithium iron electrolytes, ternary materials, and lithium iron materials all increased. The short - term carbonate lithium futures price is expected to be supported by the spot price, with limited downward space, but it is difficult to break the previous high after the emotional release [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the closing price at 95,850. The spot price rose to 93,300. The prices of upstream and downstream products in the industrial chain continued to increase. The futures market has large fluctuations due to emotions, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The short - term futures price is supported by the spot price, with limited downward space and difficult to break the previous high [11]. 2. Industry News - Critical Resources expanded the land holding area of its Mavis Lake project by 25% to over 400 square kilometers, strengthening its position in the emerging lithium corridor in north - western Ontario. It has identified 8 million tons of inferred mineral resources with a Li2O content of 1.07% and completed over 58,000 meters of drilling [12]. - At the 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference, it was shown that the energy storage market has become the core growth pole of lithium demand. The global energy storage new - installed capacity in 2025 is expected to reach 268GWh, a year - on - year increase of 48%, with a compound growth rate of over 20% in the next decade. The carbonate lithium price has rebounded to over 90,000 yuan/ton, and the inventory days have dropped to a nearly three - year low of 32 days. The supply - demand pattern has turned to a tight balance. Some companies are accelerating the layout of solid - state batteries. The industry predicts that the global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons of carbonate lithium equivalent in 2026, and the price center may continue to rise [12][13]
建信期货锌期货日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:28
行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 28 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 #summary# 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22475 | 22380 | 22530 | 22370 | 25 | 0.11 | 20351 | -5964 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 22480 | 22415 | 22565 | 22410 | 55 | 0.25 | 101749 | 1019 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 22465 | 22445 | 22590 | 22440 | 70 | 0.31 | 43628 | 3124 | 数据来源: Wind ,建信期货研究发展部 沪锌主力冲高回落,收于 22415 元/吨,涨 55,涨幅 0.25% ...
建信期货铜期货日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:28
Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The copper price is still expected to rise. The domestic social inventory is accelerating the destocking process, and domestic and foreign spot prices are supportive of the copper price. The market is also continuously trading on the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper rose slightly, with the main contract closing at 86,990. Overnight, the overseas market continued to trade on the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, driving up the copper price. The spot price rose by 430 to 87,085 during the day, and the spot premium rose by 25 to 105. The domestic social inventory decreased by 0.7 tons this week and 2.1 tons compared to last Thursday. The import loss of spot copper was nearly 1,000 yuan, and subsequent imported supplies will continue to decrease, driving domestic destocking. The C - L spread has widened again, supporting non - US spot prices [11]. 3.2 Industry News - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts that the global copper market will face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2026, and the growth rate of copper production is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025 [12]. - A London Metal Exchange (LME) executive said that due to the uncertainty of US copper tariff policies, the COMEX copper price will remain higher than the LME copper price in the next 18 months. The spread between COMEX and LME has led to a continuous loss of LME inventory, and copper inventory is shifting to COMEX warehouses. COMEX copper inventory exceeded 400,000 short tons for the first time this Monday [12]. - Aya Gold&Silver announced strong mineralization intercept results from the latest drilling at its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco and discovered a new high - grade parallel structure. The company holds an 85% stake in the project and plans to build 6 open - pit mines and 3 underground mines with a target daily ore processing capacity of 8,000 tons [12][13]. - The Canadian government has launched a national security review of the proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources. The review will focus on the impact of the transaction on key minerals and related supply chains. Copper is listed as a key mineral in Canada. The two companies have promised to invest approximately C$4.5 billion in five years, but most of the investment was previously announced by Teck Resources. Anglo American also proposed to relocate its global headquarters from London to Vancouver and rename itself "Anglo Teck" [13].
建信期货纸浆日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:25
Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Pulp [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,218 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,184 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,750 - 6,400 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,480 - 5,500 yuan/ton [7] - The ex - factory price of imported wood pulp in November was unclear, with more rumors of price increases. Market players still had a wait - and - see attitude. In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, coniferous pulp by 7.1%, and broadleaf pulp by 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In October, the European wood pulp inventory was 703,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. European wood pulp consumption was 844,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. As of November 20, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0104 million tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week [8] - Downstream base paper prices had limited increases, with most remaining stable. The price increase of white cardboard slowed down. Paper mills faced processing pressure, had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials, and poor restocking intentions. Supply pressure showed signs of weakening, but downstream profit margins were insufficient, leading to poor cost transmission. Pulp prices fell under pressure at high levels and were expected to fluctuate in a wide range at low levels [8] Group 3: Industry News - A Russian company expressed its willingness to invest in Indonesia's pulp and paper industry. On November 20, 2025, the CEO of Indonesia's Dana Tarra Group met with Russia's Sistema Group. The Indonesian government was ready to promote cooperation between the two sides by matching potential Russian investors with suitable local enterprises. The meeting was in the early stage, and potential investment amounts had not been discussed. Relevant license approvals and technical evaluations were in progress [9]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:25
Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6707 yuan/ton, closed at 6699 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 270,000 lots and an open interest of 495,726 lots, a decrease of 1,873 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6768 yuan/ton, closed at 6763 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.46%), with an open interest of 232,562 lots, an increase of 10,864 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6809 yuan/ton, closed at 6804 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.41%), with an open interest of 4,234 lots, an increase of 376 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6261 yuan/ton, closed at 6295 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with an open interest of 557,253 lots, a decrease of 29,319 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6360 yuan/ton, closed at 6393 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.11%), with an open interest of 263,547 lots, an increase of 19,590 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6431 yuan/ton, closed at 6435 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with an open interest of 12,254 lots, an increase of 661 lots [5] Spot Market Quotes - PE Market: Prices continued to be weak. LLDPE prices in North China were 6720 - 7000 yuan/ton, in East China were 6850 - 7300 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6980 - 7350 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price in Shandong was 6050 - 6050 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The cost of polypropylene was under pressure, and the demand support for propylene weakened [7] - PP Market: Prices were stable to weak, with a decline of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6130 - 6300 yuan/ton, in East China was 6220 - 6400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and most spot prices declined slightly. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines [6] - The load of previously restarted plants increased slowly, and the weekly supply decreased. There were no new maintenance plans this week, so the weekly supply might increase month-on-month [6] - The peak demand season was ending, follow-up orders were slow, and most factories had already stocked up. Downstream sentiment was bearish, and purchasing enthusiasm weakened [6] - Crude oil prices fell again due to the easing of geopolitical risks. There was pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, which put pressure on prices. The cost support for plastics and chemicals was hard to find, and combined with the weak fundamentals, the price center declined weakly [6] Industry News - On November 27, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 650,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (-0.76%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 605,000 tons [7] Data Overview - The report includes charts such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][12][16]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:25
Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash shows a downward trend, and the demand and inventory are marginally decreasing. The pattern of weak supply - demand imbalance continues. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate at the bottom, and in the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of shorting on rebounds can be considered [8] - The spot performance of glass is below market expectations. The supply is stable, the inventory is high, and the demand recovery is hard to sustain. However, the cold - repair of production lines may help achieve a new supply - demand balance. The glass price is at a low level and has limited room for further decline [9] Summary by Directory 1. Review and Operation Suggestions of Soda Ash and Glass Market - **Soda Ash Market** - On November 27, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated strongly. The closing price was 1,176 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, with a daily reduction of 27,403 lots [7] - The supply decreased, with this week's output falling below 700,000 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.60% week - on - week. The demand showed a marginal decline, with the total shipment volume down 3.65% week - on - week. The inventory decreased 1.75% week - on - week [8] - The imbalance between supply and demand continued. Although the output and operating rate decreased, the absolute output was still high. The cost provided support, but high inventory restricted price increases [8] - **Glass Market** - The spot performance was below expectations, and the impact of the concentrated shutdown of production lines in Shahe was also less than expected. The supply was stable, the inventory was high, and the demand recovery was hard to sustain [9] - The decline in industry profits accelerated cold - repair. About 5,000 tons of production lines were planned for cold - repair by the end of the year, which could help reduce inventory and achieve a new supply - demand balance. The glass price was at a low level and had limited room for further decline [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, as well as data on soda ash's weekly output and enterprise inventory, but no specific numerical summaries are given in the text [11][15]
建信期货原油日报-20251128
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 01:20
Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: November 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected in the week of the 21st, and refined oil inventories rebounded across the board, with the data being bearish. Geopolitical tensions have eased overall, but there are still many uncertainties regarding Russia's stance on the U.S.-proposed agreement. The U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are about to take effect, and although the total Russian oil exports have not declined significantly, the proportion of oil with unknown destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. Considering the significant inventory build - up pressure in the 4th quarter, the overall view on crude oil is bearish. Operationally, consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil opened at $58.05, closed at $58.55, with a high of $58.72, a low of $57.66, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 20.41 million lots. Brent crude oil opened at $61.94, closed at $62.44, with a high of $62.60, a low of $61.53, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 34.25 million lots. SC crude oil opened at 442.8 yuan/barrel, closed at 447.6 yuan/barrel, with a high of 448.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.8 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.08%, and a trading volume of 7.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish strategy on crude oil. Consider shorting on rebounds or conducting reverse spreads [7] 2. Industry News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium exported over 65.5 million barrels of crude oil through its system from the beginning of the year to November 21. The UK government will allow new oil and gas production activities near existing oil fields but will not issue new licenses for exploring new oil and gas fields. A new oil and gas price mechanism will replace the energy profit tax, which is expected to end in April 2030 or earlier. European Commission President von der Leyen said the European Commission is ready to submit a legal text on using frozen Russian assets [10] 3. Data Overview - Various data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, U.S. gasoline consumption, and U.S. diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of CCB Futures [11][12][15][21]