工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 30 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 请阅读正文后的声明 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Trump canceled his meeting with Putin and decided to strengthen sanctions against Russia due to the perceived lack of Russia's sincerity in ceasing the war. The U.S. Treasury and the EU subsequently imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of these sanctions. Without further support, oil prices may decline again under the pressure of oversupply. In the short - term, investors can consider a strategy of going long on domestic oil and short on foreign oil, and maintain a bearish outlook in the medium - term [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $61.82, closing at $61.55, with a high of $62.17, a low of $60.67, a daily increase of 0.08%, and a trading volume of 25.31 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.35, closing at $65.04, with a high of $65.89, a low of $64.32, a daily decrease of 0.25%, and a trading volume of 42.45 million lots. SC's opening price was 467.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 462.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 469.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 462.5 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 1.22%, and a trading volume of 10.19 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term: Consider a strategy of going long on domestic oil and short on foreign oil; Medium - term: Maintain a bearish outlook [6] 2. Industry News - **Price Forecast**: Morgan Stanley predicts that the Brent crude oil price will be $57.5 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and $60 per barrel in the second half [7] - **Inventory Situation**: Currently, about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil are being shipped on tankers, the highest level since records began in 2016 [7] - **Production Data**: Mexico's state - owned oil company's crude oil and condensate production in the third quarter was 1.65 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [7] - **Geopolitical News**: Ukraine will expand its attacks on Russian refineries; OPEC+ producers tend to implement a small - scale production increase again in December; Indian state - owned refineries are considering the feasibility of relying on small - scale crude oil suppliers to continue importing discounted Russian crude oil [7] 3. Data Overview - **Data Sources**: EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures are the data sources for various figures, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and consumption data of U.S. gasoline and diesel [9][13][14][16][20][21][22] - **Figures Included**: The report includes figures such as global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, WTI and Brent spot prices, and U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption [10][11][14][21]

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 25th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,614 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.79%. The settlement price was 4,614 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 1,628 lots. Although the anti-involution expectation still exists, the crude oil market declined during the session, weakening the cost support. It is expected that the PTA market will decline slightly. Pay attention to the news from the PTA meeting this week [6]. Industry News - OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production may exceed expectations again. The boost from last week's sanctions on a certain country in Europe by the US and Europe is fading. Traders doubt the implementation effect of the sanctions, and the optimistic sentiment surrounding the Sino-US trade negotiations has little impact on oil prices. International oil prices rose in the early session and then closed lower for two consecutive days. On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil December 2025 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil December 2025 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [7]. - The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $813 - $815 per ton, down $7 per ton. The price of PX in the South Korean market was estimated at $793 - $795 per ton, down $7 per ton. There were two transactions reported during the day, with an arbitrary December shipment traded at $816 per ton and an arbitrary January shipment traded at $810 per ton [7]. - The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,537 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was referenced to the futures 2601 at a discount of 77 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA price summaries, basis differences, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polysilicon market is expected to operate cautiously and strongly within the range. The supply in the fourth quarter can meet the terminal demand, but the industry's internal improvement momentum is weak, and the market focus is on the policy side, which is currently in a vacuum period [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of polysilicon ran strongly within the range. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,335 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%. The trading volume was 208,200 lots, and the open interest was 114,932 lots, with a net increase of 9,055 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also flat compared to the previous period [4]. - Future Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the expected output of polysilicon is 382,000 tons, with a monthly average output of 127,300 tons. The current output level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The demand for downstream silicon wafers and cells is stable, but the industry's internal improvement momentum is weak. The pressure comes from the weak terminal demand after the "rush installation" period. The market focus is expected to remain on the policy side, and the market will operate cautiously and strongly within the range [4]. 3.2 Market News - On October 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,150 lots, a net decrease of 90 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - In September 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [5]. - The Communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed to accelerate the construction of a new energy system, build a modern industrial system, and promote the high - quality development of the service industry [5].

Industry Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: October 29, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of volatile adjustment. The spot market has seen a slight decline, and the downstream demand in the cotton industry has not fully recovered. The new cotton listing and processing peak has brought hedging pressure, and the short - term trading focus is slowly rising [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton was between 6.2 - 6.6 yuan/kg. The cost of new cotton was around 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton (gross weight). As of October 27, 2025, the national cumulative inspection volume was 1.4407 million tons, an increase of 85,200 tons from the previous day [7][8] - **Downstream Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market was generally stable, but downstream demand did not fully follow up, and the overall market sales were average. The pure - cotton grey fabric market had sales pressure and insufficient market confidence [7] 2. Industry News - As of October 27, 2025, 985 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton. The national cumulative inspection volume was 1.4407 million tons, an increase of 85,200 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 84,400 tons from the previous day, and the inspection volume in inland areas was 8,900 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different futures contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and currency exchange rates, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][17]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 28, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated upwards, closing at 792.5 yuan/ton, up 1.93%. The results of the Sino-US negotiations exceeded expectations, boosting market risk appetite. The Tangshan production restriction rumor also restored confidence in the black industry chain. Coupled with the continuous decline in arrivals, the iron ore price was supported in the short term. However, the fundamentals showed that the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrivals decreased significantly. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, and the steel production profit continued to narrow, which may suppress the demand for raw materials in the future [7][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 28, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 opened higher and fluctuated, and then rose again in the afternoon, closing at 792.5 yuan/ton, up 1.93%. The prices of major iron ore external quotations and those at Qingdao Port increased compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the MACD indicator of the daily line formed a golden cross [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: On October 26, Sino-US representatives negotiated on issues such as export controls, the extension of the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs, fentanyl anti-drug cooperation, further expansion of trade, and relevant measures for the US 301 ship charges. The two sides reached a preliminary consensus and will fulfill their internal approval procedures. The results of this negotiation exceeded market expectations, and the trade conflict between the two sides showed a trend of easing, which effectively boosted the risk appetite of the capital market. In addition, due to environmental protection requirements, Tangshan plans to implement a 30% production restriction on blast furnaces for 4 days starting from the 27th. As of October 24, the average daily pig iron output in Tangshan was 39.69 million tons. If calculated according to a 30% production restriction, the average daily impact on pig iron output would be 9.1 million tons [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the arrivals decreased significantly again, mainly due to the regular decline after the end of the quarterly peak-shipping. It is expected that the arrivals will increase in the future. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output continued to decline, falling below 2.4 million tons. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the profits of current rebar blast furnaces, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into a loss state. It is expected that the output will continue to decline in the future, which will suppress the demand for raw materials. In terms of the five major steel products, the demand for steel products recovered last week, and the output of the five major steel products increased slightly. The sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed [11]. 3.2 Industry News - "14th Five-Year Plan" suggestions include boosting consumption, promoting cross-strait relations, building a financial power, strengthening original innovation and key core technology research, and cultivating emerging and future industries. On October 27, Mexican President Cibao said that US President Trump agreed to extend the deadline for the agreement on trade, security, and immigration issues between the two countries [12][13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spreads between high-grade and low-grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume at major ports, the steel mill's iron ore inventory available days, the imported sintered powder ore inventory, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the sample steel mill's tax-excluded hot metal cost, the blast furnace and electric furnace start-up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly output of the five major steel products, and the steel mill's inventory of the five major steel products [15][23][24][27][30][35][40][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market has not been reversed. Enterprises have insufficient willingness to cut production actively. In October, the supply was over 400,000 tons, while the demand was generally stable. The loose supply - demand situation led to a lack of inventory reduction drivers. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly lies in the cost increase in Southwest China and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive effects remains to be seen. The industrial silicon has limited strong drivers, and the price of the main contract will fluctuate under pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated, showing a pattern of strengthening first and then weakening. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The trading volume was 261,087 lots, and the open interest was 211,670 lots, with a net increase of 10,152 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The price range of 553 industrial silicon was 8,800 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and that of 421 was 9,550 - 9,950 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. The supply in October was over 400,000 tons, and the demand was stable. The market lacks inventory reduction drivers. The expected support in Q4 is from cost increase in Southwest China and active production cuts, but the positive effects are uncertain. The main contract price will fluctuate under pressure due to limited drivers and continuous increase in net short positions in the 2601 contract [5]. 3.2 Market News - On October 28, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 48,044 lots, a net decrease of 141 lots compared to the previous trading day. From January to September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 491,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, and the monthly average export volume was 61,500 tons. In September, the export volume decreased slightly. The export volume in August was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 7.73% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term asphalt follows the upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable. Traders with long positions should set flexible stop - profit points. The price may fall again later. The demand side of asphalt is seasonally weakening, and the actual demand continues to be weaker than expected [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3295 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3279 yuan/ton, the highest was 3295 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3263 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.79%, and the trading volume was 16.66 million lots. For BU2512, the opening price was 3306 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3298 yuan/ton, the highest was 3306 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3272 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.75%, and the trading volume was 2.60 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the asphalt price in South China slightly increased, while those in North China and Shandong decreased. The rest of the regions remained relatively stable. The halt of the upward trend of crude oil and asphalt futures intensified the wait - and - see sentiment in the asphalt spot market [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Some refineries have production reduction or shutdown expectations, while others plan to increase production, and the overall start - up load rate is expected to remain basically the same. The demand side is seasonally weakening. The road projects in the Northeast and Northwest are coming to an end, and the rigid demand for asphalt is shrinking rapidly. In North China and Shandong, only some key projects are rushing to work, and the demand increment is scarce. The construction in the South is stable, but the slow resource consumption reflects weak demand. The lack of funds restricts project progress, and the actual demand for asphalt continues to be weaker than expected [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3210 - 3620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The halt of the upward trend of international oil prices and asphalt futures, combined with the release of long - term contracts by Hongrun, led to an abundant supply of spot market resources and lower prices, causing other refineries to follow the price cut [8] - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3360 - 3580 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The planned asphalt production of Maoming Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical in November is relatively small, and the price increase by major refineries boosted the market sentiment. However, the abundant social inventory and the approaching contract expiration at the end of the month limited the price increase [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily start - up rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: October 29, 2025 - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [1][2][3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - The New York raw sugar futures continued to decline due to sufficient sugar supply in Brazil and the gradual start of the new season in India and Thailand, which put pressure on the market and pushed sugar prices down. The Zhengzhou sugar futures' main contract rebounded sharply, mainly because China suspended the import of all syrups and premixed sugars, which reduced the domestic sugar supply. However, the positive impact may be limited as the two countries' institutions are expected to communicate and find a solution [7][8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: The main contract of New York raw sugar futures in March closed down 3.34% to 14.47 cents per pound, and the main contract of London ICE white sugar futures in December closed down 2.1% to $422.20 per ton. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures 01 closed at 5,483 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan or 0.92%, with a reduction of 1,562 positions. The 05 contract closed at 5,418 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan or 0.56%, with an increase of 3,098 positions. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 14.47 cents per pound, down 0.50 cents or 3.34%, with a reduction of 954 positions. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.08 cents per pound, down 0.40 cents or 2.76%, with an increase of 3,215 positions [7]. - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot prices in domestic production areas remained unchanged. The price of Nanning sugar was 5,750 yuan per ton, and the price of Kunming sugar was 5,640 yuan per ton [8]. 4.2 Industry News - China suspended the import of all syrups and premixed sugars from Thailand since October 27 due to the unqualified inspection results of a Thai factory and the defects in the Thai inspection system. The average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil this season decreased by 6.5% compared with the previous season, and the sugarcane quality (measured by ATR) decreased by 0.8%. As of now, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started production in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, and the last one is expected to start tomorrow. The current white sugar price of Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season is 5,850 yuan per ton, and the price of refined sugar is 5,950 yuan per ton [11]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [12][14][15][18][21]. - The table shows the trading volume, increase/decrease in trading volume, long - position holding volume, increase/decrease in long - position holding volume, short - position holding volume, and increase/decrease in short - position holding volume of the top 20 futures companies [21].

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Core Views - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, with a significant increase in October. Although the pressure on large - scale farms has eased to some extent, there is still supply pressure. Farmers are reluctant to sell due to the expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs. On the demand side, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and terminal consumption has increased but lacks continuous growth. Spot prices may rebound but have limited upside, and futures prices also face supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with limited upward space [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: On the 28th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then fluctuated and declined. It closed at 12,160 yuan/ton, down 1.30% from the previous day, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,847 lots to 308,132 lots [6] - **Spot**: On the 28th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 12.51 yuan/kg, up 0.31 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] 2. Industry News - No specific news content is provided in the given text 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of October 23, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 138 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 50.4 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 378.6 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 53.6 yuan/head [12] - **Price**: The average market selling price of 15kg piglets in the week of October 23 was 255 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.69 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.09 yuan/jin [12] - **Cost**: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.02 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.39 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.43 yuan/kg [12] - **Slaughter weight**: As of the week of October 23, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.90 kg, a weekly decrease of 0.35 kg, a monthly decrease of 0.65 kg, and an annual increase of 1.83 kg [12] - **Utilization rate**: As of mid - October, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 44.8%, a 12.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period and a 10 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [12]