行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货10月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.490 | 115.710 | 115.610 | 115.600 | 0.120 | 0.10 ...

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 现货价格：多晶硅 n ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the traditional off - season in October, supply pressure exists due to limited capacity control, and spot freight rates are falling. However, shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November, and the freight rate is likely to bottom out and rebound, with the bottom possibly reached this year. The December contract has an opportunity for a rebound from oversold conditions [8]. - The China export container shipping market continued its rebound this week. Transport demand was generally stable, and ocean - going route freight rates increased, driving up the composite index. China's exports in September showed good growth, and the trade with the EU was particularly strong [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - In October, it's the traditional off - season with supply pressure. Shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November. For example, Maersk's rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. The Israel - Hamas conflict may affect the Red Sea route, and the December contract has an oversold repair opportunity [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - The China export container shipping market continued to rebound. China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The EU route had strong growth, with a 14.2% year - on - year increase in September. The Mediterranean route's freight rates also rose. The North American route had a "抢出口" effect in the short term despite challenges. The Israel - Hamas conflict has escalated, and the international community believes Hamas has violated the cease - fire agreement [9][10]. 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route on October 20, 2025, was 1140.38, up 10.5% from October 13. The index for the US West route was 863.46, up 0.1% [12]. 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures on the European line on October 21, including the contract, previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report presents various shipping - related data charts, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月16日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 171 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com | | 表2：10月21日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2601 | 1,175,046 | 1,246,557 | -2,203 | -16,676 | 14,473 | 1.20% | | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the demand elasticity of the 2601 contract remains. Driven by the spot market, it may rebound. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest was 12,315 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,235 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 593 lots to 290,204 lots [8] - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.49 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In October, the planned live pig出栏量 of sample enterprises increased by 5.14% compared with the actual出栏量 in September. The出栏量 may continue to increase significantly, and the supply pressure remains high. The average slaughter weight increases seasonally. In the long term, the live pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [9] - Demand: Currently, due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is high, which diverts part of the supply. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with a slight increase in the operating rate and slaughter volume [9] Operation Suggestions - Spot: The supply and demand of live pigs have both increased, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. However, currently driven by the active demand for second - round fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price continues to fluctuate and rebound [9] - Futures: The live pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity and may rebound driven by the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of second - round fattening purchases in the later stage [9] Group 5: Industry News - On October 16, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 112 yuan/head [10][12] Group 6: Data Overview - On the week of October 16, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - On the week of October 16, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [14] - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [14] - As of the week of October 16, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a weekly decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a monthly decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [14] - On the week of October 16, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The enterprise operating rate fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation increased slowly [14]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 10 月 21 日，万得全 A 放量上涨，收涨 1.62%，超 4600 支个股上涨；沪深 300、 上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.53%、1.09%、1.64%、1.45%，中 小盘股表现更优。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 消息面上，周末 18 日国务院副总理何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative factors materialized. The market stabilized, but lacked a clear trigger for a counter - attack in the form of monetary easing. The Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The domestic economic fundamentals have been weakening since the end of Q2. Although exports remain resilient, domestic demand is still weak, making policy stimulus necessary. The orientation of loose monetary and fiscal policies remains unchanged, but short - term monetary easing is difficult to implement. The bond market lacks direct positive stimuli and is also affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, so investors need to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon, with all treasury bond futures rising slightly [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with changes in the medium and long - term mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.762%, down 0.6bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funding situation was stable. There were 9.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 15.95 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 6.85 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined slightly, indicating stable funds. Short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, with the overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate fluctuating around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rising 1bp to 1.4433%, and the medium - to - long - term funds remaining stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 1bp to 1.66% [10] - **Conclusion**: Wait patiently for the bond market's counter - attack opportunity [11][12] 2. Industry News - **Sino - US Trade**: On the morning of October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of consultations soon. US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing some tariff policies [13] - **Monetary Policy**: Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [14] - **Financial Forum**: The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is scheduled for the afternoon of October 27. The central bank will release a series of financial standards during the forum [14] - **Economic Data**: China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Includes information on the trading data of treasury bond futures contracts, cross - period spreads of main contracts, cross - variety spreads, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Involves data such as the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trend, and inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Covers the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,505 yuan/ton, down 0.93%. The trading volume was 188,642 lots, and the open interest was 107,518 lots, a net decrease of 6,718 lots [4]. - Spot prices are stable. Under profitable conditions, enterprises have insufficient willingness to cut production actively, and the demand side lacks growth momentum. The supply side shows that production cuts are imminent in the southwest region, while production in the northwest region continues to increase. The weekly output in the third week of October was as high as 97,000 tons. The monthly demand for polysilicon is stable. If the industry reaches a new consensus on further production cuts, it will be negative for the demand side of industrial silicon. The demand for organic silicon is 120,000 tons, and the demand for exports and alloys is also 120,000 tons. The market lacks inventory - clearing drivers, and there is a lack of specific policy follow - up in the industrial silicon industry. In the fourth quarter, the marginal change in the industry is that the southwest production area will enter the dry season, with rising electricity prices increasing costs and seasonal active production cuts. The high - end of the current price has loosened, and the market improvement lacks drivers. The short - term downward trend has not ended, and it may test the lower - range support again [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices oscillated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,505 yuan/ton, down 0.93%, with a trading volume of 188,642 lots and an open interest of 107,518 lots, a net decrease of 6,718 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price range of 553 is 8,800 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9,550 - 9,950 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Spot prices are stable. Enterprises have low willingness to cut production under profitable conditions, and demand lacks growth momentum. Supply: production cuts in the southwest are coming, while production in the northwest is increasing. The weekly output in the third week of October was 97,000 tons. Polysilicon demand is stable monthly. If further production cuts are agreed, it will be negative for demand. Organic silicon demand is 120,000 tons, and export and alloy demand is 120,000 tons. There is no inventory - clearing driver, and no specific policies. In Q4, the southwest will enter the dry season, with higher costs and seasonal production cuts. The high - end of the price has weakened, and the short - term downward trend may continue [5]. 3.4 Market News - On October 21, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 48,851 lots, a net decrease of 452 lots from the previous trading day. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year in real terms. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.64% in September. From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [6].

Report Date - The report date is October 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 53,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The trading volume was 56,591 lots, and the open interest was 79,358 lots, with a net reduction of 435 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The expected production of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly production before the anti-involution policy (June). The current production level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The monthly expected production of silicon wafers and battery cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous rise of prices, but the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is policy support for the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stagnant, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors need to be treated with caution [4] Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,290 lots, a decrease of 140 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - From January to August, the cumulative new addition was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new addition in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5] - In September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.64% compared to the previous month. From January to September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% [5] - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and the co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]