3、据外媒报道，布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周三表示，未来七天，阿根廷主要农业区 将普遍干燥。干燥条件预计将加快 2024/25 年度的大豆收获。此前大豆收获受阻，因许多田 地土壤水分过剩。 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 脂 | 国 | | 日 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 7846.00 | 7838.00 | 8.00 | 0.10% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 8230.00 | 8218.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 9390.00 | 9396.00 | -6.00 | -0.06% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月23日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1051.50 | 1046.25 | 5.25 | 0.50% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton futures closed flat today, fluctuating around the 13,000 yuan/ton mark. The market sentiment is gradually easing, but trading volume has sharply decreased, and the market lacks upward momentum. The subsequent focus should be on tariff policies. The US cotton rose 2.74% overnight due to the potential easing of tariff policies. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue its oscillating trend. The subsequent marginal impacts of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main 2509 contract closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the market lacked upward drivers. The US cotton rose 2.74% overnight due to potential tariff policy easing [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - In Q1, port cargo throughput reached 42.2 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with domestic and foreign trade increasing by 4.1% and 1.4% respectively. Container throughput reached 83.03 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with domestic and foreign trade routes increasing by 3.6% and 11.5% respectively [3]. - In Kuqa City, 1,800+ cotton planters are operating efficiently, with 1.595 million mu of cotton sown, accounting for 88.61% of the planned area [4]. - In early April 2025, the yarn sales-to-production ratio of sampled enterprises was 98.1%, a month-on-month increase of 2.4 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 8.3 percentage points. The yarn inventory was 29.1 days of sales, a month-on-month decrease of 1.3 days and a year-on-year increase of 0.5 days. The cloth sales-to-production ratio was 96.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points. The cloth inventory was 36.8 days of sales, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 days and a year-on-year increase of 0.3 days [4]. - As of April 21, 2024, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in the 2024/25 season was 6.792731 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.78%. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.428573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.26% [5]. - On April 23, the Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index was 75.1 cents/pound, a 0.35% decrease from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, Trump acknowledged that US tariffs on Chinese imports are too high and expects a significant reduction in tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary also indicated that the China-US tariff war will soon cool down. Domestically, the market driving logic is shifting from "policy expectation-driven" to "reality verification-driven" [13]. - Investors should focus on three key points: the USDA planting area report in late May, the Fed's interest rate decision in mid-June, and the semi-annual reports of Chinese textile enterprises in early July, which may form new price drivers [13]. - Technically, the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract needs to effectively stand above 13,200 yuan/ton to confirm a breakthrough, with strong support at 12,600 yuan/ton. Arbitrage strategies can focus on the opportunity for the repair of the cotton yarn processing fee, which is currently at the 10th percentile of historical levels and has the potential to return to the mean [13]. - The cotton price may remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes, the recovery of downstream orders, extreme weather in major production areas, and macro - policy trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [13].

棉花：美棉受原油提振微幅收涨 郑棉重回万三 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | 截止 | 東区 | 昨日 | A | 涨跌回 | 涨跌幅 | 目同比 | संघीत | 历史位百 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF09 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 成交量 | 4/23 4/23 | 元/吨 ਜੋ | 12795 195069 | 12990 275033 | 195 79964 | 1.52% 40.99% | -660 104600 | -2850 41075 | 15.07% 66.67% | | | (主力) | 持仓量 | 4/23 | ਵੇ | 562752 | 567631 | 4879 | 0.87% | -11290 | 54699 | 90.40% | | | | 注册仓单 | 4/23 | 5K ...

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（4.23） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3137 45 1.46% | | 3150 | 13 | | 热卷 | 3233 1.41% | 45 | 3230 | -3 | | 铁矿 | 727.5 15 2.11% | | 774 | 46.5 | | 焦煤 | 962.5 24 2.56% | | 1030 | 67.5 | | 焦炭 | 1595 48.5 3.14% | | 1404 | -191 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货普遍上涨。螺纹收于3137元/吨，上涨1.46%；热卷主力 | | | | | | 合约收于3233元/吨，上涨1.41%；铁矿今日主力合约收于727.5元/吨，上涨 | | | | | | 2.11%；双焦今天领涨黑色系。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 需求方面，钢厂利润有所回升，高炉铁水产量维持在240万吨以上，短期铁矿 | | | | | | ...

豆粕生猪：库存创三年新低 豆粕基差走阔 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 JIDGHI FIITURE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 車位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 3070 | 3062 | 8.00 | 0.26% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 2988 | 2934 | 54.00 | 1.84% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 3054 | 3045 | 9.00 | 0.30% | | | CZCE菜好拍: 01 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 2421 | 2403 | 18.00 | 0.75% | | | CZCE菜好柏: 05 | 4月22 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel inventory is still being depleted, and apparent demand has increased month-on-month, but steel mills are actively producing, and the real estate downturn cycle continues to drag down. The steel futures market lacks effective rebound momentum, and negative impacts may gradually materialize. It is recommended to short on rallies [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, most black commodity futures were weak, with only iron ore barely rising. Rebar closed at 3,075 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; hot-rolled coil futures closed at 3,171 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; iron ore futures closed at 711.5 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; coking coal and coke led the decline in the black series [1] Market Analysis Supply - Steel mills are still actively producing. Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long-process steel mills was 54.98%, a month-on-month increase of 1.30 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.28% to 83.56%, and the ironmaking capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04% to 90.15%. Daily pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 million tons to 2.4012 million tons, ending a 7-week consecutive increase, and was 1.39 million tons higher than the same period last year. Rebar production fell to 2.2922 million tons, wire rod production increased by 3.31%, hot-rolled and medium-thick plate production increased slightly, and cold-rolled production decreased slightly [1] Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, decreasing by 759,300 tons month-on-month to 15.8468 million tons, the lowest in over two months, and the month-on-month decline rate rebounded to 4.57%. Among them, rebar inventory continued to decrease by 5.73% to 7.3316 million tons, wire rod inventory was 1.244 million tons, a decrease of 14.31%, hot-rolled and medium-thick plate inventory also decreased month-on-month, and cold-rolled inventory continued to increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 5.34% month-on-month to 9.4864 million tons. Only cold-rolled apparent demand decreased slightly month-on-month. Rebar apparent demand increased by 8.37% month-on-month to 2.7382 million tons but remained at a low level in the same period in recent years. Wire rod apparent demand increased significantly by 18.83% to 1.0745 million tons, slightly exceeding last year's level, and hot-rolled apparent demand also increased by 2.8% [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Monitor supply-demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a sideways trading strategy in the short term and monitor the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high-level consolidation strategy in the short term and monitor supply-demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Monitor the sideways market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

棉花：美棉受原油影响下跌 郑棉偏弱震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | | 截止 | 单位 | BEF | �日 | 涨跌量 | 涨跌幅 | 目間形 | 电图形 | 历史位置 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | 4/22 | 元/四 | 12910 | 12795 | -115 | -0.89% | -855 | -3075 | 12.26% | | | | 成处量 | 4/22 | ਜੇ | 171504 | 195069 | 23565 | 13.74% | 24636 | -170323 | 54.79% | | | CF09 | 持仓量 | 4/22 | ਵੇ | 528443 | 562752 | 34309 | 6.49% | -16169 | 53948 | 89.94% | | | (主力) | | | | | | | | ...

油脂：豆油库存低于预期 油脂集体收涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | 油 脂 | इ | 日 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 7808.00 | 7722.00 | 86.00 | 1.11% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 8130.00 | 8068.00 | 62.00 | 0.77% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 4月22日 | 元/吨 | 9385.00 | 9280.00 | 105.00 | 1.13% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 4月21日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1041.50 | 1046.75 | -5.25 | -0.50% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 4月21日 | 美分/磅 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased, while the DCE live pig main contract 2509 increased. The price of CBOT US soybeans main contract rose overnight. The price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak, and the live pig market is expected to maintain a short - term strong pattern [2]. - For soybean meal, although US soybean futures prices are rising due to a weaker US dollar and renewed trade optimism, the record - high South American soybean production restricts the upside. Brazilian soybean harvest is nearly finished, and Argentina's harvest weather has improved. The domestic soybean import cost decline drags down the soybean meal price, and the subsequent soybean meal price may remain weak. For live pigs, the supply is expected to increase, but the demand has a certain support, and the short - term strong pattern is expected to continue [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed at 3020 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous trading day. The coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes are 200 - 300 yuan/ton. DCE live pig main 2509 contract closed at 14435 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.86 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The CBOT US soybeans main contract rose 0.33% to 1040 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest agricultural main producing area, there will be scattered showers in the western region from Wednesday to Saturday. Temperatures will fluctuate. In the eastern region, it will be mostly dry on Wednesday and have scattered showers from Thursday to Saturday. Another system later this week will bring more widespread rainfall and the threat of severe thunderstorms. The Rosario Exchange expects unstable weather in the next few days, but the weather may enter a more favorable cycle from next week, with less rainfall in the second half of April [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - As of April 13, 2024/25, the EU's soybean imports reached 10.95 million tons, up from 10.1 million tons in the same period of the previous year. On April 16, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal continued to decline. The import cost of US soybeans on April 17 was 3889 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The production forecast of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 is 164.262448 million tons, up 13.3% from the previous year [5][6]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of live pigs in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][13][14]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures prices are rising, but the record - high South American soybean production restricts the upside. The domestic soybean import cost decline drags down the soybean meal price. The soybean meal price is expected to remain weak as the market anticipates the recovery of soybean meal supply [15]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase, but the demand has a certain support. The short - term strong pattern of the live pig market is expected to continue [16].

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（4.17） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | | | 螺纹 | 3092 -14 -0.45% 48 | | 3140 | | 热卷 | 3191 -24 49 | -0.75% | 3240 | | 铁矿 | 707 0.5 0.07% 65 | | 772 | | 焦煤 | 950.5 -22 -2.26% 79.5 | | 1030 | | 焦炭 | 1538.5 -26.5 -1.69% -134.5 | | 1404 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货表现继续偏弱，焦炭预计明天切换主力合约。螺纹收于 | | | | | 3092元/吨，下跌0.45%；热卷主力合约收于3191元/吨，下跌0.75%；铁矿今 | | | | | 日主力合约收于707元/吨，收盘微涨0.07%；双焦今天2509合约继续大跌。 | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | 中国一季度经济数据出炉，国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上 | | | | | 表示，一 ...