Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The price of DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased, while the price of DCE live pig main contract 2509 also decreased. The price of CBOT US soybeans main contract increased overnight. The trade negotiation between China and the US eases the concern about US soybean export demand, but the soybean sales progress is slow, and the domestic soybean meal price is under pressure. The supply and demand of live pigs may shift from short - term relative balance to looser, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][17][18]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509: The closing price increased by 0.31% to 2908 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotes of coastal mainstream oil mills decreased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton [2]. - DCE live pig main contract 2509: The closing price decreased by 0.39% to 13870 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 14.71 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [2]. - CBOT US soybeans: The main contract increased by 0.72% to 1052 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - The temperature in the US Midwest is rising this week, and the weather pattern will become more active. There were local showers in the south last Thursday, mostly dry from last Friday to Sunday, and local showers in the south on Monday. The planting progress and early growth conditions are expected to improve, but if the dryness persists, it may become a problem [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Oil mill soybean processing: In the 19th week (May 3 - May 9), the actual soybean processing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. It is expected to increase to 1.9085 million tons in the 20th week, with an operating rate of 53.65% [5][6]. - Soybean import cost: On May 12, the import cost of US soybeans was 8764 yuan, up 48 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3648 yuan, up 45 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3547 yuan, up 26 yuan [5]. - Live pig data: On May 12, the daily slaughter volume of key live pig slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.43% to 123,629 heads, and the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises increased by 4.07% [5][6]. - Other news: As of May 8, Argentina's 2024/25 soybean harvest rate was 45%, behind last year's 48%. Brazil's April soybean exports reached 15,271,913.82 tons, with a daily average export volume up 14% year - on - year. China's April CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month; PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year and - 0.4% month - on - month [6][7]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live pig prices, basis, and Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategy - Soybean meal: The US soybean futures price rebounded due to trade optimism. The trade negotiation eases the concern about US soybean export demand, but the slow soybean sales progress may put pressure on the premium. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure, and the support level of the domestic continuous soybean meal M09 is at 2800 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, and the spot price is expected to be weak [17]. - Live pigs: The supply pressure may gradually appear in mid - to - late May. The demand is cooling, and the supply - demand relationship may shift to looser, with the price expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International: Optimistic sentiment about trade boosted CBOT soybeans, which may break through the trading range since mid - April. The market expects MPOB to raise palm oil inventory in the May report, but crude oil's rise is positive for bio - energy, so Malaysian palm oil is expected to rebound following the external market [7][8] - Domestic: As the clearance of imported soybeans speeds up, the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising, with high supply pressure in the future. The easing of Sino - US trade relations has mixed effects on domestic soybean oil, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing, and its price mainly follows the import cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is rising, but the medium - to - long - term supply of imported rapeseed is uncertain, and Canadian rapeseed has been strong recently, so rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for the first 90 days and 10% remaining, and cancel tariffs imposed by other executive orders [3] - As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China increased by 2.76 million tons from last week, a 4.40% increase [3] - As of Friday, the sales of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop reached 57% of the expected output, 6.3% higher than a month ago but lower than last year and the historical average [3] - China and Argentina signed a procurement letter of intent worth about $900 million for agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, and vegetable oils, to reduce dependence on US agricultural products [4] Fundamental Data Charts - Not detailed in the given content Views and Strategies - International: CBOT soybeans are expected to break through the trading range, and Malaysian palm oil is expected to rebound [7][8] - Domestic: Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range, palm oil price follows the import cost, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal and DCE live hog futures prices showed a mixed trend, with some contracts rising and some remaining stable. The CBOT soybean futures price declined. The domestic soybean meal spot price is expected to slow down its downward adjustment in the short - term and resume its decline in late May. The live hog market is currently in a state of short - term supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [1][2][16][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes showing mixed trends. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.76 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.53% to 1041 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest agricultural main producing areas, there will be local to scattered showers in the western and eastern regions from Wednesday to Friday, and mainly dry weather on Saturday. Temperatures will be close to or higher than normal from Wednesday to Thursday, and close to or lower than normal from Friday to Saturday. More precipitation may occur next week, and the western region may be wetter than the eastern region [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On May 2, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 523 million tons, up 18 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of soybean meal was 8 million tons, up 1 million tons week - on - week. On May 6, the soybean meal transaction volume of major oil mills was 10.21 million tons, an increase of 7.34 million tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of oil mills was 47.95%, an increase of 3.25% from the previous day. The import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased on May 7. The daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises on May 6 was 124,720 heads, up 0.75% from the previous day. Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and the global and US soybean ending stocks in relevant periods are provided, with slight differences from the USDA's April estimates [5][6]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures declined due to concerns about international trade tensions and the drop in soybean oil futures. The Brazilian soybean harvest is over, and its production in the 2024/25 season reached a record high. The domestic DCE soybean meal main M09 contract stopped falling and stabilized. The soybean meal spot price continued to decline, but the decline may slow down in the short - term and resume in late May [16]. - **Live Hogs**: The supply side shows a significant decline in the average slaughter weight in the northern region, and the overall concentrated supply node of the breeding end is approaching. The demand side has poor terminal sales. The live hog market is in a short - term state of supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [17].

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Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) main contract 2509 closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from the previous trading day, breaking below 12,800 yuan/ton again. The market is cautious about the trade war, new cotton sowing, and downstream consumption. In the short - term, Zhengmian will maintain a weak oscillation. The ICE cotton futures fell due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices, with commercial buying support at 64 cents/pound. Zhengmian is expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies. The current Zhengmian 2509 contract has fallen below the planting cost support line, but there is an adjustment window for the state - reserve cotton rotation policy. Technically, there is support at 12,500 yuan/ton and short - term pressure at 13,000 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to pay attention to the repair opportunity of cotton yarn processing fees [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of Zhengmian main 2509 contract decreased by 0.7% to 12,750 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It broke below 12,800 yuan/ton again, and 13,000 yuan/ton became a pressure level in the short - term. The market is cautious about trade war, new cotton sowing, and downstream consumption. The ICE cotton futures fell 1.48% to 66.56 cents/pound overnight, affected by the rebound of the US dollar index and the decline of crude oil prices. There is commercial buying support at 64 cents/pound for the ICE main contract [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On April 30, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 12,355 (-41) sheets, including 11,040 (+202) registered warehouse receipts and 1,315 (-243) valid forecasts [3]. - As of April 28, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 4.22% from the previous week. Among them, bonded cotton was 44,500 tons, down 3.92%, and non - bonded cotton was 4,100 tons, down 7.40% [5]. - In mid - to late April, the meteorological conditions in Xinjiang were generally favorable for cotton spring sowing. As of April 20, the sowing progress in Xinjiang was 93.9%. It is expected that there will be rainfall and gusts in some areas of northern Xinjiang at the end of April [5]. - As of April 15, the national cotton direct - seeding progress was 75%, 20.8 percentage points faster than the same period last year, and the seedling - transplanting progress was 45.5%, 23.4 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The proportion of farmers using direct - seeding was 74.9%, and that of using seedling - transplanting was 25.1% [6]. - As of the week ending April 27, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 15%, compared with 11% last week, 14% last year, and a five - year average of 14% [6]. 3.3 Data Charts The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [8][11][12]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US may withdraw from the mediation process between Russia and Ukraine if there is no progress. Trump's support rate for handling the US economy has dropped to 36%. Domestically, the spring sowing in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas has been completed, with a sowing progress of 98.7%. As of May 15, the cotton field emergence rate in Xinjiang was 32.4%, 4.2 percentage points faster than the five - year average. However, if there is continuous precipitation in early June in northern Xinjiang, 6 - 8% of cotton fields may need replanting [16]. - The Zhengmian 2509 contract has fallen below the planting cost support line, and there is an adjustment window for the state - reserve cotton rotation policy, with a theoretical storage space of about 300,000 - 500,000 tons. Technically, there is support at 12,500 yuan/ton and short - term pressure at 13,000 yuan/ton. Investors are advised to pay attention to the repair opportunity of cotton yarn processing fees, which are currently at the 5% historical quantile [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the domestic oil market was volatile. At the beginning of the month, oils tumbled due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Then, the market panic eased, and the tightening short - term supply supported the prices. However, with the arrival of imported soybeans and the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the prices fell again at the end of the month. The global oilseed supply is expected to remain loose, while the global vegetable oil market shows a supply - tightening expectation [3][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Futures**: In April, domestic soybean oil futures fell nearly 2%, palm oil futures fell nearly 4%, and rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly. CBOT soybean futures rose slightly, and Malaysian palm oil futures fell nearly 10% [3]. - **Registration of Warehouse Receipts**: The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased by 553 to 4005, palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 0, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 484 to 1357 [10]. - **Basis of Three Major Oils**: The basis of soybean oil increased by 186 to 440, palm oil increased by 58 to 600, and rapeseed oil increased by 99 to 128 [14]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the week of April 22, the net long positions of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil managed funds increased by 87066 and 99060 respectively compared with the same period last month [17]. - **Soybean Premiums at Major Ports**: As of April 30, 2025, the premium of South American port soybeans decreased by 30 cents/bushel to 145 cents/bushel, and that of the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 10 cents/bushel to 198 cents/bushel [18]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Oilseeds**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production was lowered, trade volume and crushing volume were raised, and ending stocks were increased. The overall supply of oilseeds is expected to remain loose [22]. - **Global Vegetable Oils**: In the 2024/25 season, global vegetable oil production, trade volume, and consumption are all expected to decline, and ending stocks are reduced, showing a supply - tightening expectation [22]. - **Global Three - Major Oils Consumption**: In 2024/25, the biodiesel consumption of the global three - major oils was 53686 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.25%. The edible consumption was 124759 thousand tons, slightly lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 4.31% [25]. 3.2.2 Soybean Supply and Demand - **Global Soybeans**: In 2024/25, global soybean production is expected to be slightly lowered, beginning stocks are significantly raised, and ending stocks are increased by 1.06 million tons to 122.5 million tons. The global soybean crushing volume increased by 2 million tons to 354.8 million tons [28]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the 33rd week of the 2024/25 season, the cumulative US soybean exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year, but exports to China decreased by 5.83% year - on - year. In March 2025, US soybean crushing volume decreased by 4.47% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 19.07% year - on - year. As of April 28, 2025, the US soybean sowing rate was 18% [32][35][39][42]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In March 2025, Brazilian soybean exports were 15.7237 million tons, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 3.97% year - on - year. The estimated exports in April were 14.31 million tons [45]. 3.2.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global Rapeseed**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 85.24 million tons, 451 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast, mainly due to the reduction in Canadian production. The ending stocks are expected to be 9.018 million tons, 60 thousand tons lower than the previous forecast [48]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: As of the 37th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the cumulative Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 72% year - on - year, and the commercial inventory decreased by 13.12% year - on - year. As of March 2025, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased by 6.57% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to March increased by 4.36% year - on - year [53][55]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Supply and Demand - **Global Palm Oil**: In 2024/25, global palm oil production is expected to be 78.229 million tons, 1.3 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 3%. Consumption is expected to be 76.953 million tons, 1.215 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, with a year - on - year growth of 3.17%. Ending stocks are expected to be 14.786 million tons, 52 thousand tons lower than the previous month's forecast [58][59]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In March 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.38% year - on - year, exports decreased by 24.34% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 8.76% year - on - year [67]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In January 2025, Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory were all lower than the same period last year [71]. 3.2.5 Other Countries' Oil - Related Data - **India**: In March 2025, Indian vegetable oil imports decreased by 15.55% year - on - year, and inventory decreased by 28.03% year - on - year [73]. - **China**: In March 2025, China's soybean imports decreased by 36.77% year - on - year, rapeseed imports decreased by 34.46% year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased by 76.88% year - on - year, and palm oil imports increased by 3% year - on - year. As of the 17th week of 2025, the inventory and operating rate of domestic soybean, rapeseed, and palm oil showed different changes [77][82][85][88][93][95][97].

豆粕生猪：现货成交低迷 豆粕延续回落 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 会门助员 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | TIOSHI EILLIBER | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 截至 | 南位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 3008 | 3019 | -11.00 | -0.36% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 2833 | 2870 | -37.00 | -1.29% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 2964 | 5985 | -21.00 | -0.70% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月29日 | 元/吨 | 2370 | 2399 | -29.00 | -1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International factors such as the faster - than - expected US soybean planting progress, the delay of the US EPA's decision on biodiesel blending standards, the narrowing growth of Malaysian palm oil exports, and the lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 plan have led to a decline in peripheral oil prices. In the domestic market, different oils have different situations: soybean oil may enter a stockpiling phase with increasing imports and rising refinery operating rates, causing price pressure; palm oil prices revolve around import costs with low inventory and mainly rigid - demand transactions; rapeseed oil shows a pattern of short - term supply surplus but a long - term bullish outlook due to falling rapeseed stocks [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Industry News - China's imports of US feed grains and oilseeds account for a low proportion of domestic consumption, are mostly feed grains, have high substitutability, and will not affect domestic food supply even if imports stop [2] - On April 25, the total commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils was 175 million tons, with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes of - 7 million tons, - 20 million tons, and + 15 million tons respectively. Different oils had different inventory changes [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 13.8% (ITS data) and 14.8% (AmSpec Agri Malaysia data) compared to the same period in March, driven by Indian restocking and palm oil's discount to soybean oil [3] - US agricultural products are affected by China's import suspension measures, with some product prices dropping by over 20% [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided 3.3 Views and Strategies - Internationally, the faster - than - expected US soybean planting progress and the delay of the US EPA's decision on biodiesel blending standards have led to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Malaysian palm oil exports' growth has narrowed, and Indonesia's B40 plan lacks progress, causing a continuous decline in Malaysian palm oil prices [7] - Domestically, soybean oil may enter a stockpiling phase as imports increase and refinery operating rates rise, putting pressure on prices. Palm oil prices revolve around import costs with low inventory and mainly rigid - demand transactions. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply surplus but a long - term bullish outlook due to falling rapeseed stocks [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Affected by the domestic economy and global trade frictions, steel demand is weak. Although there is a certain restocking demand before the May Day holiday, concerns about the future still exist. Although domestic policies are temporarily supportive but not aggressive, the probability of subsequent efforts still exists. The industry supply and demand has entered a seasonal weakening state. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the post - holiday rebound ends [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On April 29, black - series commodity futures except iron ore fell across the board. The rebar closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,210 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; the iron ore main contract closed at 709 yuan/ton, up 0.28%; coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Market Analysis - International trade: On April 24, South Korea imposed a four - month temporary anti - dumping duty on hot - rolled carbon or alloy steel medium and heavy plates originating from China, with a tax rate of 27.91 - 38.02% until August 23, 2025. Brazil made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on color - coated sheets originating from China and India but did not recommend imposing a temporary anti - dumping duty. Canada launched an anti - dumping investigation into carbon steel wires and alloy steel wires originating from or imported from China, India and other countries. Multiple countries' increase in import tariffs on Chinese steel and anti - dumping investigations have impacted the "price - for - volume" model of net exports, and manufacturing demand has been revised down due to tariff adjustments [1]. - Domestic policy: After the recent Politburo meeting, no super - expected policies were released, and China will enter a policy window period before the May Day holiday [1]. - Supply side: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long - process steel mills reached 57.58%, a five - month high. Steel mills remained actively producing. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.77% to 84.33%, the iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 1.45% to 91.6% month - on - month, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 42,300 tons to 2.4435 million tons, the highest since October 2023, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 6.83%. The expectation of crude steel reduction has re - emerged. Some short - process steel mills are expected to cut production due to losses. Recently, long - process steel mills have been converting to producing billets with better profits, and the output of rebar in some steel mills has been diverted, resulting in a tight supply of certain specifications, and the short - term supply pressure has been alleviated, improving the supply - demand pattern [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

豆粕生猪：通关持续扰动 豆粕再创新高 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金门期货 JIORHI FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3077 | 3063 | 14.00 | 0.46% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3049 | 2984 | 65.00 | 2.18% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3059 | 3048 | 11.00 | 0.36% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 2455 | 2432 | 23.00 | 0.95% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 4月2 ...