2025年12月08日 周报 期货研究报告 PTA期货：供需维持偏紧，需求预期转弱 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面呈现4650-4800区间震荡偏强。周初日线破位冲高，之后回落调整。 上周PTA负荷持稳至73.7%。上周装置运行偏稳，独山能源、YS、川能等仍在停车；聚酯负荷有所提升至91.5， 环比增加0.2%，江浙织机周均开工率为71.3%，周环比下降0.4%。PTA供需维持偏紧格局。原料端：PX供应依 然偏紧走势偏强，PXN坚挺；原油走势震荡。原油不稳定和需求预期转弱导致PTA追涨动力不足。 2、PX方面：短期短流程开工支撑下对PX供应影响有限，但一季度随着部分亚洲装置检修预期下，PX供 应存收缩预期，中期供需好转预期下PX支撑偏强。PTA方面，近期PTA装置检修集中，当前聚酯工厂库存偏低， 短期聚酯负荷预计大幅下降风险不大，维持91%附近，但江浙织机负荷下降较多，聚酯需求预期走弱。故PTA 短期受现货支撑，逢低做多为佳，受聚酯需要预期影响，冲高后谨慎追单。 关注因素：1.聚酯开工率；2.PTA检修；3 ...

今 日 早 评 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】Mysteel统计全国钢厂进口铁矿石库存总 量为8984.73万吨，环比增42.25万吨；当前样本钢厂的进口矿 日耗为 285.07万吨，环比减4.36万吨；库存消费比31.52天， 环比增0.62天 。评：发运端整体较为平稳，部分矿山年底可能 有冲量，飓风结束到港节奏波动或趋于平稳；需求端样本铁水 产量环比明显减量，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下滑预期仍 存，刚需支撑逐渐走弱，但钢厂盈利率略有增加，且补库需求 暂未明显释放。库存方面，港口库存继续累积，钢厂库存环比 增加，压港小幅下降，整体仍有累库压力。重要会议前期仍有 宏观预期，短期矿价预计震荡运行。 【短评-白银】美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环 比上涨0.2%，基本符合市场预期。同时，9月实际个人消费支出 环比意外持平，前值由上涨0.4%下修为0.2%。评：通胀数据为 美联储12月降息再开绿灯，美国经济承压，市场对未来降息预 期增加，目前市场关注点在黄金是否进一步走 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The short - term steel price of rebar may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [1]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias as the US economy is under pressure and the market's expectation of future interest rate cuts increases [1]. - The main contract price of ferrosilicon is expected to remain low as the cost is firm but the market supply - demand is still loose [3]. - Coking coal should be viewed as short - term volatile, with a slight rebound in the futures market and waiting for downstream restocking [4]. - Hog prices will be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short at appropriate times and farmers should hedge at appropriate times [5]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate between 2820 - 2860, and follow - up policies and import news should be focused on [6][7]. - The bond market will be short - term volatile and bearish, but the downside space is limited [7]. - Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and whether gold and silver will diverge should be noted [7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and follow - up Fed interest rate cut decisions should be monitored [8]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate slightly weakly in the short term due to high port inventory [9]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the medium - term downward trend has not ended [9][10]. - PVC market price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply is high and demand is weak [10]. - It is advisable to wait and see in the crude oil market as supply surplus restricts price increases [11]. - PTA should be considered with a bullish - biased oscillation idea, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly as downstream demand is weak [12]. Summaries by Commodity 1. Rebar - As of the week of December 4, rebar production was 189.31 tons, a decrease of 16.77 tons (8.14%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 142.68 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons (2.76%); social inventory was 361.13 tons, a decrease of 23.62 tons (6.14%); apparent demand was 216.98 tons, a decrease of 10.96 tons (4.81%). Production and apparent demand have declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventories have declined for eight consecutive weeks [1]. 2. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest level since September 2022. US private data showed that non - farm employment decreased by 9,000 in November, and the October data was revised downwards. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [1]. 3. Ferrosilicon - The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 73,050 tons, a decrease of 10.21% (8,310 tons) month - on - month. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu all saw inventory decreases. The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is loose and prices have limited upside [3]. 4. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.6%, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month. Raw coal daily output decreased by 0.9 tons, and raw coal and clean coal inventories increased. Some domestic coal mines were affected by safety inspections, while Mongolian coal imports remained high. The real demand for furnace materials is weak, but the market has a short - term rebound [4]. 5. Hog - On December 4, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 17.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous day. The supply of hogs exceeds demand, and prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [5]. 6. Palm Oil - Due to declining exports and record - high production in November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high. The market is waiting for the MPOB report on December 10 to provide guidance [5]. 7. Soybean Meal - Brazil's soybean export volume in December is expected to be 2.81 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to be 1.33 million tons. China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans is progressing slowly, and the domestic breeding industry is weak, limiting the growth of soybean meal demand [6][7]. 8. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly increased. The year - end capital market may tighten marginally, which is negative for the bond market, but the downside space is limited [7]. 9. Gold - The US White House official said that the Fed may cut interest rates by about 25 basis points in the next meeting. If a dovish chairman takes office, it will be negative for gold [7]. 10. Aluminum - The ADP employment data in the US in November was weak, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is limited, demand has resilience, and the prices of copper and silver in the non - ferrous metal sector also drive up aluminum prices [8]. 11. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate is high, downstream demand has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased slightly. High port inventory restricts the upside of prices [9]. 12. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 3.15% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 3.07%. The demand for soda ash is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the high - level inventory of manufacturers is difficult to resolve [9][10]. 13. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 4,460 yuan/ton. The operating rate is expected to increase, supply is high, social inventory continues to accumulate, and domestic demand is in the off - season [10]. 14. Crude Oil - The time for reaching a phased Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation plan is postponed, and the relationship between the US and Venezuela is tense, increasing geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December, but the supply surplus restricts price increases [11]. 15. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days. PTA supply reduction is more than expected, but the weakening terminal demand restricts the upside of prices [11]. 16. Rubber - The price of Thai rubber latex is 55.5 Thai baht/kg. The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year. Tire operating rates are low, and downstream demand is weak [12].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term steel price may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [1] - The change of the Fed's top management is an important factor determining the future trend of precious metals. Gold may fluctuate more in the short term and oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [3] - The market sentiment of coking coal has gradually turned weak, but there is some resistance to further decline in futures prices [3] - The bond market has re - entered the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw and the capital market [4] - The short - term hog price will be under pressure, and it is recommended to short at an appropriate time [4] - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [5] - The short - term price of soybean meal will remain in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the import news of Brazilian soybeans and the cost support of US soybeans [7] - Silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [7] - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8] - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short on rebounds [9] - Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Domestic steel market prices are mainly slightly rising. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities is 3283 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The short - term steel price may fluctuate strongly, but the upside space is limited [1] Gold - The Fed's top management may change. If a dovish chairman takes office, it will greatly boost risk appetite. Gold fluctuates more in the short term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] Iron Ore - From November 24th to November 30th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2784.0 tons, a decrease of 155.5 tons compared with the previous period. Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [3] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants is 36.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. The market sentiment has gradually turned weak, but there is some resistance to further decline in futures prices [3] Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2, and the service industry PMI was 52.1. The bond market has re - entered the oscillation range [4] Hogs - The national average price of pork in the agricultural product wholesale market on December 3rd was 17.74 yuan/kg, up 0.9% from the previous day. The short - term hog price will be under pressure [4] Palm Oil - As of December 3rd, the domestic spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in some regions has changed. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and attention should be paid to the callback risk [5] Soybean Meal - On December 3rd, the domestic soybean meal spot market prices were stable with an upward trend. The short - term price will remain in an oscillating pattern, and it is expected to oscillate between 2980 - 3100 yuan/ton [7] Silver - The ADP employment data in the US in November showed a significant decline, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased. Silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the support level is at 2090 yuan/ton [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, with stable prices recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the pressure level is at 1170 yuan/ton [9] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6867 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the support level is at 6750 yuan/ton [10] Copper - Vale and Glencore are considering establishing a joint venture to develop a copper mine project. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [11]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年11月28 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加248万桶；同期，美国汽油库存 增加313.6万桶，馏分油库存增加288.4万桶；据央视新闻报 道，当地时间周二，美国中东问题特使威特科夫以及Trump的女 婿库什纳将在克里姆林宫与俄罗斯总统普京会面，会后，俄总 统助理乌沙科夫表示，双方讨论了乌克兰问题解决方案的几个 选项，普京要求向特朗普传达多项重要政治信号；俄美双方达 成协议，不透露谈判的实质内容；普京将于周四开始对印度进 行为期两天的访问，在此期间，他将努力推动俄罗斯石油、导 弹系统及战斗机的销售，旨在修复因美国对该南亚国家施加压 力而受损的能源与国防合作关系。评：原油市场供应过剩仍抑 制原油价格上涨。和平谈判仍是短期市场关注焦点，虽然各方 都尽可能的用积极言论来表述谈判进展，但当前各方诉求仍有 分歧明显。震荡偏弱对待。 【短评-白银】智通财经APP获悉，在关键经济数据因政府 停摆而延迟发布之际，市场正紧盯将于周三公布的ADP 11月私 营部门就业报告，这份本不算核心的月度数据如今在美联储下 周议息会议前承担了异常重要的角色。评：关注该 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, steel prices rose slightly, market sentiment was high, inventory was depleted, and there were expectations of maintenance production. The overall market enthusiasm was relatively high, demand improved to some extent, and raw material support remained strong. The bottom of steel prices may have been determined. As of November 28, the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in major cities across the country was 3,291 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,473 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the rebar inventory level is still relatively high year - on - year. As the off - season deepens, demand expectations are still under pressure, and the upside space of the futures market is limited. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices rose slightly, with improved demand and strong raw material support. The bottom of steel prices may be determined. - Looking ahead, the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest rate cut expectations create a warm macro - environment, driving a potential low - level rebound in the futures market. But high rebar inventory and weakening demand in the off - season limit the upside space, and the futures price is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Data Item | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average pig iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 234.68 | 236.28 | - 1.6 | - 0.68% | Weekly | | Rebar inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 146.73 | 153.32 | - 6.59 | - 4.30% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 384.75 | 400.02 | - 15.27 | - 3.82% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 78.02 | 78.02 | 0 | 0% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 322.88 | 324.09 | - 1.21 | - 0.37% | Weekly | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals futures industry is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [2] Core View of the Report - Last week, precious metals rose smoothly driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The market's pricing for a December rate cut is over 85%. Silver's increase was significantly higher than that of gold. With the temporary easing of Sino - US trade and the start of important Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations, the world's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, and the Fed's rate - cut cycle increased the risk appetite for stocks and other commodities, suppressing gold. Gold may face high - level oscillations in the medium term, while silver may have a catch - up rally [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity was basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 a slight increase. The overall outlook is unchanged, and some point out an increased risk of economic slowdown in the next few months. After the US government shutdown, more economic tracking data will be available, and the US economic downward pressure is increasing. If Trump chooses a dovish Fed chair, the expectation of a January rate cut will increase, boosting the upward momentum of precious metals, especially silver. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations passively, and its volatility will strengthen [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Precious metals rose last week due to Fed rate - cut expectations. The market's pricing for a December rate cut is over 85%. Silver outperformed gold. Gold may face high - level oscillations in the medium term, and silver may have a catch - up rally [2] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates mixed economic activity in different districts. The US economic downward pressure is increasing. A dovish Fed chair may boost precious metals in January, and silver's volatility will strengthen [3] Attention Factors - Factors to watch include Fed rate - cut expectations, international geopolitics, and US economic data exceeding expectations [4] Charts and Data - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures market (gold and silver futures prices, trading volume, and positions), interest rates and exchange rates (dollar index, US interest rates vs. gold prices), macro - data (US CPI, PCE inflation, employment, PMI, etc.), and fund positions and ratios (ETF positions, asset management institutional positions, gold - silver ratio, etc.) all sourced from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [5][11][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the central bank's resumption of trading in government bonds in the open market, market expectations for the adjustment of the interest rate yield curve have increased, leading to a limited rebound in government bond futures. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and towards the end of the year, policy marginal variables have weakened. The year - end capital market trading has not started, and under the guidance of the central bank's loose liquidity, the probability of significant fluctuations in the year - end capital market is low. The bond market as a whole may fall into a narrow - range fluctuation again, but it is necessary to continuously monitor whether there will be a capital market trading situation at the end of the year [2]. - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate has been increasing for three consecutive months. In October, affected by factors such as a higher base in the same period last year and a relatively rapid increase in financial expenses, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic sentiment level is generally stable. In the fourth quarter, the economic downward pressure has increased, but towards the end of the year, the probability of large - scale stimulus policies is low. Overall, the economic fundamentals of the bond market do not support the bond market to break through the shock range, and the bond market may fall into narrow - range fluctuations again, still mainly characterized by shock [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - The report presents figures on the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of long - term, ultra - long - term, short - term, and medium - term government bond futures [5][6] 2. Macro - fundamentals - The report shows figures related to official PMI, GDP, industrial added value, fixed assets investment, and total retail sales of consumer goods [9][12] 3. Policy - making - The report includes figures on general public budget, M2, new RMB loans, inflation data, import and export data, central bank open - market operations, and the M2 - social financing gap [17][21][22] 4. Capital - market - The report provides figures on inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, interest rate swaps, capital expectations, benchmark interest rates, and capital costs [25][29] Factors to Monitor - The factors to monitor include the stock - bond seesaw, economic data, and the intensity and method of counter - cyclical adjustment [4]

期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 周报 甲醇：港口库存高位下降，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场止跌反弹，其中江苏价格波动区间在1990-2110元/吨。在外轮 卸货速度不及预期、港口货源倒流内地等因素影响下，港口甲醇库存大幅下降，加之国际装置变动对市场情 绪有所提振，周内港口甲醇市场价格止跌并偏强运行。内地甲醇价格上涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区 间在1985-1990元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2155-2175元/吨。周内，海外装置检修信号释放下，港口 价格走高且套利内地空间收窄，内地供需矛盾不大，企业出货良好，下游买涨心态浓厚。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气逐步落地，当前伊朗在途 货量仍充裕，12月进口大概率维持高位水平。本周下游冰醋酸塞拉尼斯装置检修，预计产能利用率有所下滑， 青海盐湖烯烃装置重启后负荷提升，甲醇制烯烃周均开工预期上升，甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲醇整体 供过于求的局面难改，甲醇港口库存高位。预计甲醇价格近期震荡运行，01合 ...