Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a weak demand performance, with prices oscillating downward this week. The rapid inventory accumulation and doubts about post - holiday restocking demand have left fundamental contradictions unresolved. Also, Sino - US trade relations have disrupted market sentiment [2][4]. - In the short term, the steel futures market is under adjustment pressure due to the under - performing fundamentals, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction. However, the cost side provides support, and the market's expectation for the late - October meeting limits the downward space [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices oscillated downward this week, with the market being stable to slightly lower during the holiday. As of October 11, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities was 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Sino - US trade relations affected market sentiment [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition [6]. - From January to August 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net injection was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net injection was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net injection was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded. According to different statistics, the sales amount increased by 11.9% or 22.1% month - on - month, and 0.4% year - on - year [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. From January to September, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, up 32% year - on - year [6]. - In September, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, up 15% from August and about 82% from the same period last year [7]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.9%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in domestic steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, down 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore was 299,140 tons, up 340 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, down 3.35 days [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - The average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 99,900 tons, lower than last week's 105,500 tons. The market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, with demand falling short of expectations and risk - aversion sentiment rising [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The steel market has a weak peak season, high inventory, and Sino - US trade friction, so the short - term market faces adjustment pressure. However, cost support and expectations for the late - October meeting limit the downward space [26]. - Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - to - rebar spread, and steel profit. The option strategy is a wide - straddle consolidation [2][27].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of iron ore, gold,菜粕, palm oil,生猪,焦煤,螺纹钢,白银,中长期国债, glass, methanol, PVC,原油,沥青, and rubber are expected to show different trends, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies provided [1][3][4]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 904,000 tons week-on-week, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 98,700 tons. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 242,200 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 94,000 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 5. - Supply is stable, and demand is still supported. Some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday. However, Sino-US trade relations may impact prices. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Gold - US Vice President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - The tariff news last Friday led to a sharp drop in overseas stock markets and an upgrade in market risk aversion. Gold has limited upward momentum at present. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [1]. 菜粕 - In the 41st week of 2025, the菜籽 crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. The estimated volume for next week is the same. - As the temperature drops, the rigid demand for 菜粕 is expected to decline. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future policy changes, upstream operations, and other factors should be monitored [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian government expects an increase in crude palm oil production in 2026 due to factors such as increased fresh fruit bunch production and improved oil extraction rates. - International trade situations are variable, and the future trends of US soybeans and soybean oil are unclear. Palm oil has strong support, and opportunities to go long on dips should be noted [3]. 生猪 - As of October 10, the average slaughter weight of 生猪 increased by 0.01 kg to 123.48 kg, the weekly slaughter operating rate increased by 0.19% to 31.14%, and the prices of piglets and the profits of different breeding methods decreased. - The supply pressure on the breeding side remains high, and the demand increase is limited. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 焦煤 - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.05% to 75.18%, and other relevant data also changed. - Supply decreased during the holiday, and demand slowed down. Spot coal prices were weakly stable. After the holiday, production will recover, but the upside will be limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. 螺纹钢 - The blast furnace operating rate, ironmaking capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Policy signals are positive, but market demand during the National Day holiday was poor, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7]. 白银 - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and the expected inflation rate was slightly lower. - The US economy is still resilient, and risk aversion has increased. Silver has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [7]. 中长期国债 - China's rare earth export control is not a ban, and the impact is limited. The US's tariff increase plan has been opposed by China. - Tariffs may cause market fluctuations, and risk aversion supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be more bullish, but trading is more difficult. A slightly bullish and oscillatory mindset should be adopted [8]. Glass - The average price of float glass increased, the operating rate remained flat, inventory increased, and the average order days of deep-processing enterprises increased. - The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, but downstream demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu increased, the domestic production capacity utilization rate increased, and inventory and other data also changed. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has recovered. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China remained flat, the production capacity utilization rate increased, inventory increased, and the operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises increased. - PVC supply is at a high level, and demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11][12]. 原油 - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, and the US is involved in Middle East peace negotiations. - The signing of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East reduces geopolitical risk premiums, and OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts. Demand is also under pressure. It is advisable to trade short at high levels [13]. 沥青 - As of October 9, the weekly production of domestic 沥青 decreased by 6.8% week-on-week but increased by 24.9% year-on-year. Factory and social inventories changed differently. - In the fourth quarter, 沥青 supply and demand will decline seasonally, and the decline in demand is more negative for the spot market. Prices are expected to continue to fall [14]. Rubber - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and Hainan are provided, and the export volume of natural rubber in Malaysia in August decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month. China's heavy truck sales in September increased significantly. - The rubber production season in Southeast Asia is from September to October, and supply is expected to be loose. Demand growth is limited. Although the supply-demand drive is weak, rubber is supported by low inventory and production in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15].

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers short - term evaluations for various commodities including glass, gold, iron ore, etc., analyzing their supply - demand situations, price trends, and providing trading suggestions [1][3]. Summary by Commodity Glass - National float glass average price is 1260 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day;开工率 is 76.01%, unchanged weekly; total inventory of sample enterprises is 62.824 million heavy boxes, up 5.84% [1]. - Terminal demand is rising, but downstream orders are weak, inventory is increasing. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1215. Suggestion: wait and see or short - term long on dips [1]. Gold - There are differences within the Fed on further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on precious metals. Gold is expected to oscillate with a downward bias in the short - term [1]. Iron Ore - From September 29 to October 5, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7758 million tons, up 172,100 tons; 45 - port arrivals were 2.6087 million tons, up 248,200 tons; northern six - port arrivals were 1.4516 million tons, up 450,200 tons [3]. - The probability of actual negative feedback in the short - term is low, but there is a risk of negative feedback from late October to November. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 81.9%, down 4.6% week - on - week. After - holiday market sentiment has improved, and short - term range operation is recommended [3]. Rebar - As of the week of October 8, rebar production was 203,400 tons, down 1.75%; factory inventory was 192,340 tons, up 21.04%; social inventory was 467,300 tons, up 5.4%; apparent demand was 146,010 tons, down 39.43% [4]. - Steel demand has declined due to the holiday, and inventory has increased. Short - term steel prices are expected to adjust slightly, and short - term range operation is recommended [4]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2213 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with support at 2250. Suggestion: wait and see until the decline stabilizes [5]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4640 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 4840. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds [6][7]. Live Pigs - On October 9, the national average pork price in wholesale markets was 18.64 yuan/kg, down 3.5% from before the holiday. Spot prices are expected to remain low for some time, and futures prices may continue to decline in the short - term [7]. Palm Oil - Holiday - period positive news from palm oil producing areas supports price increases. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the September supply - demand data from MPOB [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC production increased in September, and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has eased. Short - term short - selling is recommended [9]. Soybeans - In the 40th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7557 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.01%. Domestic soybean prices are under pressure due to increased supply. Attention should be paid to policies and new grain listings [10]. Rubber - 9 - 10 months are the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asia. Supply is expected to be loose, demand growth is limited, but low inventory supports prices. Short - term low - level trial long is recommended [11]. PTA - In October, there are maintenance plans for some PTA plants, but overall supply is still abundant. Demand support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Silver - The US government shutdown continues, and the US dollar index has rebounded. Silver is expected to oscillate with a downward bias in the short - term, but is bullish in the long - term [13]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The economic fundamentals are bearish for the bond market in the long - term. Bond market operation is difficult, and an oscillatory mindset should be adopted [13].

【短评-原油】10月5日的欧佩克+会议上最终决定在11月仅 增产13.7万桶日，大幅增产的预期被证伪；截至10月3日当周， 美国原油库存增加约280万桶，远超市场预期的230万桶，而汽 油库存下降130万桶，馏分油库存减少180万桶。评：OPEC产量 增加周期始终压制油价。短期中东局势持续紧张，乌克兰对俄 罗斯能源基础设施的袭击，以及美国对伊朗的制裁等，增加了 市场对原油供应中断的担忧，为油价提供底部支撑。此外， OPEC+政策方面，其11月增产幅度低于预期，缓解了市场对供应 过剩的担忧，对油价形成一定支撑。整体上，油价中期压力仍 存，短期存在支撑，观望或短线过渡交易。 今 日 早 评 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，正在就加沙停火协议 相关事宜进行交涉，该协议已经非常接近达成，与巴勒斯坦伊 斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）的谈判"似乎进展顺利"。特朗普还 称，他本周末可能前往中东。评：节假日期间，黄金和美元指 数同步走高，目前已经超越4000点，但是不建议追高，美元指 数进一步走势需要观察。不建议追高。 投资咨询中心 2025年10月09日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The fundamentals of the coke market remain healthy, with prices expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - After the peak season, there is still room for the manganese - silicon price center to decline [4]. - Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday with limited decline [4]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [5]. - The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The short - term trend of pig prices is expected to be weakly adjusted, with a possibility of a small rebound [6]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for crude oil due to supply surplus pressure [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [9]. - It is advisable to short at high positions for PX as PXN is under pressure [9]. - Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks [10]. - Gold is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions to control risks before the holiday [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bond market operation is difficult, and the stock - bond seesaw should be concerned [11]. Summary by Short - Comments Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 34 yuan/ton. Supply has declined, and demand has a good rigid support. Mainstream coke enterprises have proposed a price increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2253 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. Domestic methanol starts at a high level, and downstream demand recovers. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at 2365 [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate is 44.18%, a decrease of 1.50%. Costs are slightly strengthened, and the loss degree deepens. After the peak season, there is room for the price center to decline [4]. Rebar - The price of billets in Tangshan is stable at 2970 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises have weak pre - holiday stocking willingness. Steel prices may run weakly and stably before the holiday [4]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1282 yuan/ton. Production is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the lower support at 1260 [5]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7242 yuan/ton. Production enterprise inventory is decreasing, and downstream start - up rates are expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at 7200 [6]. Pig - The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.32 yuan/kg, up 0.8%. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to adjust weakly in the short - term with a possible small rebound [6]. Soybean - National port soybean inventory is 938.5 million tons, increasing. Domestic new soybeans are on the market, and prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term [7]. Palm Oil - National key - area commercial inventory is 55.22 million tons, decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and long - making opportunities should be focused on in the fourth quarter [7]. Crude Oil - Iraq has resumed oil exports, and OPEC+ may increase production quotas in November. It is advisable to short at high positions due to supply surplus [8]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. PX - The average domestic and Asian PX start - up rates are rising. PXN is under pressure, and it is advisable to short at high positions [9]. Silver - There are differences within the Fed. Silver is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions [10]. Gold - Sino - US trade issues and Fed policies boost gold. It is expected to fluctuate more in the short - term, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [10]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - New policy - based financial tools are introduced, which are bullish for the stock market and bearish for the bond market in the medium and long - term. Concern should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy recommendation is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [5] Core View of the Report - International risk aversion has increased, with geopolitical factors and tariff disruptions leading to a rise in market risk aversion. The Fed's independence and internal disagreements have added more uncertainties, increasing the risk aversion factors and making precious metals oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large increase in precious metals prices in the previous period, there is a need to be vigilant about external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [2][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the implementation of US tariffs and the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index rose significantly, and precious metals corrected to some extent. The market is currently pricing in two more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, totaling 50 basis points. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously driven by the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Trump announced new high - tariff policies on multiple imported products starting from October 1, but will adhere to the 15% tariff ceiling for trade partners with existing agreements. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund for infrastructure construction, with priority in semiconductor and key mineral fields [14] - In August, the US core PCE price index met expectations, and real consumer spending exceeded expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects a high probability of another cut in October. The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing support for the Fed's potential interest rate cut [16][17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, but the number of continued claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating pressure in the labor market [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was at a low since May, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rebounded. The ISM manufacturing index in August was below expectations, and the output index fell into the contraction range. The second - quarter GDP and core PCE price index were revised, showing that the US economic downward pressure is increasing [18] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - China and the US will hold talks in Spain. Trump mentioned sanctions on Russia, asked Europe to put economic pressure on China, and announced tariffs on semiconductor companies. After China's military parade, the geopolitical situation has become tense again [22] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - US non - farm payrolls in August were far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the need for interest rate cuts. The US stock market, copper, and crude oil may strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [24] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB has a certain appreciation expectation. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - International risk aversion has increased, and precious metals are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large previous increase in precious metals prices, attention should be paid to external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [31]

钢材期货周度报告 2025年09月29日 旺季需求不振 建议轻仓过节 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡下跌，周初市场预期向好，叠 加焦炭提涨预期，市场需求增加，后半周终端需求较弱，节前补 库意愿较弱，市场回归理性。临近假日，恐高情绪进一步增加， 商家多以降库为主。截至9月26日，全国主要城市20mm三级抗震 螺纹钢均价3288元/吨，周环比下跌11元/吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 及旺季预期的影响，钢厂产能释放力度持续增强，铁水产量小幅 增加，但品种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于传统"金九"旺季 不旺，市场商家对于"银十"的预期较弱，市场成交表现不稳。 成本端：由于铁矿石和废钢价格稳中趋强，焦炭价格维持平稳， 生产成本支撑维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页 ...

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see. The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, with Q4 PTA maintenance capacity slightly exceeding market expectations. Although polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectations, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly [2][16]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4608, the highest was 4688, the lowest was 4532, and the closing price was 4646, with a weekly increase of 42 or 0.91% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end, with only one 3 - million - ton new capacity plan in Yulongdao in 2024 and no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to August 2025, domestic PX output was 24.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; from January to May 2025, domestic PX imports were 5.284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. - Asian PX device maintenance in 2025 was still concentrated in the second quarter. In the third quarter, Fuhai Chuang and Dongying United carried out maintenance as scheduled, while Tianjin Petrochemical and Fujia Dahua postponed it, and Daxie planned to increase the load. The average domestic PX operating rate in the third quarter was 83.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the average Asian PX operating rate was 75.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The average PXN in the third quarter was $252/ton, an increase of $19/ton compared with the second quarter. Currently, PXN has dropped to around $207/ton. - In the fourth quarter, there are not many PX device maintenance plans in Asia. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou in the Chinese mainland, and FCFC in Taiwan, China have device maintenance plans. It is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure [5][6]. 2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure - From January to August 2025, domestic PTA output was 48.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. As of now, the domestic PTA capacity is as high as 91.715 million tons/year, with a total of 6.6 million tons/year of new PTA capacity commissioned this year, a capacity growth rate of 7.8%. There is still a 3 - million - ton/year new device of Xin凤鸣 to be commissioned in Q4. - Due to low processing fees, the maintenance loss of industry devices in Q3 increased. The PTA processing fee in the third quarter remained at a low level, with an average of 189 yuan/ton. The continuous low processing fees have led to an increase in the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises. The total PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is 15.5 million tons/year, slightly more than market expectations. In the fourth quarter, Ineos, Dushan Energy, Hengli, Energy Investment, Xin凤鸣, etc. have maintenance plans, and the commissioning of Dushan Energy's new device is postponed. It is expected that the room for PTA load increase in Q4 is limited [7]. - This week, domestic PTA output was 1.4038 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons from last week and an increase of 29,500 tons from the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. This week, Fuhai Chuang restarted, South China devices reduced the load, and Ineos stopped due to weather reasons, resulting in domestic supply being weaker than expected and a slight decrease in domestic overall output this cycle [8]. 2.3 Inflection Point in Polyester Start - up - From January to August 2025, domestic polyester output was 52.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 8.218 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester output), a year - on - year increase of 18%. - In the third quarter, the polyester load increased slightly month - on - month, with an average load of 89.3%, a slight increase of 0.5% compared with the second quarter, mainly dragged down by bottle - chip production cuts. This week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry was 1.5418 million tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. - It is expected that the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry next week will be slightly less than 1.53 million tons. Due to the large - scale shutdown of the Huaxin device and the time required for the load increase of the Henghai device after commissioning, it is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will decline slightly next week. - Under the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the terminal load gradually recovered. As of the end of September, the load of texturing, weaving, and dyeing recovered to 81%, 70%, and 76% respectively, lower than the level of the same period last year. In the fourth quarter, although the polyester load increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season of demand [13][14]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The continuous low processing fees have increased the maintenance willingness of leading industry enterprises, and the PTA maintenance capacity in Q4 is slightly more than market expectations. Although the polyester load has increased under the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, the load of filament and staple fiber has reached historical highs, with limited room for improvement under the loss situation. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, suppressing the rebound space of PTA processing fees. On the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China is expected to remain at a relatively high level in Q4, and PXN is under pressure; crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, PTA maintenance has limited positive effects, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].

Industry Investment Rating - The report did not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2511 opened at 485 for the week, reached a high of 493, a low of 471, and closed at 491, with a weekly increase of 4.3 or 0.88% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Keeps the Stance of Increasing Production - In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July. OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.95 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Venezuela, and Iraq increased their production, while Nigeria and Iran decreased theirs [5]. - Non - OPEC countries in the OPEC+ alliance had a production of 14.452 million barrels per day in August 2025, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Considering the production increase plan in August 2025, the actual production of non - OPEC countries was lower than the target, mainly due to the shortfalls in Mexico, Azerbaijan, and Russia [5]. - OPEC+ core eight countries decided to increase production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day starting from October. The production decision for November will be made at the next meeting on October 5. The actual supply flowing into the market may be much lower than the nominal increase quota [6]. - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day starting from October. The French President's statement about the resumption of UN sanctions on Iran has raised concerns about the stability of crude oil supply [6]. 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production was adjusted to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day). In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day [9]. - In August 2025, Russia's oil and oil product exports decreased by 1% to 7.26 million barrels per day, and export revenue decreased by 6% to about $13.51 billion. As of the week of September 14, Russia's daily average seaborne crude oil exports decreased by 934,000 barrels [9]. - Since August 2025, Ukraine has launched about 27 attacks on Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 11% - 14%. As of September 25, 21 Russian federal subjects had fuel shortages and implemented rationing. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the current ban on gasoline exports [10]. 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. As of the week of September 26, 2025, the number of active rigs was 424, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 179, an increase of 5 compared to the previous week [11]. - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in supply from OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustment will occur later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [11]. 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [18]. 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels compared to the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels [19]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 820.712 million barrels, a decrease of 380,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels [19]. 2.6 Consumption: Weakening Marginal Demand - The IEA raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and kept the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day [24]. - BP postponed the forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. In the "current trajectory" scenario, global oil demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030 and drop to 83 million barrels per day by 2050 [24]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [24]. 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee Strengthened Slightly - As of July 25, the US refined oil processing fee was $350 per ton, while the Asian refinery processing fee was $174 per ton. In the week of September 19, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton compared to the previous week, and the profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [26]. 2.8 Refinery Utilization Rate at a Low Level - In July, the US refinery utilization rate was 94.42%, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%, and the European refinery utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 4.46%. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. - As of September 25, 2025, the utilization rate of major refineries in China was 80.27%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points compared to the previous week. As of September 24, 2025, the utilization rate of Shandong local refineries was 58.28%, a 0.45% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the content. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the spot pork price may rise slowly during the holidays. The supply side still has sufficient pig sources, but the slaughter rhythm of farms may slow down slightly due to the festive atmosphere. The demand side will see further improvement in downstream stocking enthusiasm with the arrival of the double festivals, and the sales of meat cuts are expected to continuously improve, with consumption's supporting effect on meat prices gradually strengthening. - In the short - term, the futures market is still restricted by supply pressure, but the boost from festival demand will drive prices to stop falling and rebound, with the overall price level slightly increasing. The market supply - demand pattern will adjust towards "supply - demand approaching balance". It is expected that the futures price will bottom out, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see in operation. [2][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Price Market Review The report mentions a chart of pig futures and spot prices (yuan/ton), but no specific content about the review is provided. [4] 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis The report includes charts of the monthly trend of the number of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend of the average weight of commercial pigs slaughtered nationwide (in kilograms), and the weight - based structure of commercial pig inventory (in %), but no specific analysis content is given. [5][6][9] 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis The report contains charts of the开工率 of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) and the frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises (in %), but no specific demand analysis content is provided. [12][15] 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis The report shows charts of self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (yuan/head) and purchased piglet breeding profit (yuan/head), but no specific cost - profit analysis content is given. [17][19] 3.5 Market Outlook - Spot market: In the short - term, the pork price may rise slowly during the holidays. The supply side has sufficient pig sources, but the farm's slaughter rhythm may slow down during festivals. The demand side will see increased stocking enthusiasm with the double festivals, and the sales of meat cuts will improve, strengthening the consumption's support for meat prices. - Futures market: In the short - term, it is restricted by supply pressure, but festival demand will drive prices to stop falling and rebound, with the price level rising slightly. The supply - demand pattern will adjust towards balance. It is expected that the futures price will bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see. [2][21]