1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, including their supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. It offers trading suggestions for some commodities based on these analyses [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity 3.1. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC's December commercial inventory in OECD increased by 4 million barrels to 2.84 billion barrels. The expected demand for OPEC crude in 2026 remains at 43 million barrels per day, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2025. US refined oil demand in the four - week period ending January 9 was 1.1% lower than the same period last year. With the reduced expectation of US strikes on Iran, the oil price dropped significantly. The oil market still faces oversupply pressure, and the price is expected to be short - sold in the short term [5]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the report. Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal is 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons. The raw coal inventory is 5.499 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons. After last week's rebound, the coking coal futures have entered a volatile pattern this week. Without policy intervention, the coal price may remain low before the Spring Festival [1]. 3.2. Metals Iron Ore - From January 5 to January 11, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. The overseas iron ore shipment volume has slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited growth in overseas shipments in the first quarter. The port inventory is under pressure to increase, but the short - term increase in iron water production and steel mills' restocking provide some support for the ore price [3]. Steel - As of the week of January 15, the weekly output of rebar was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons. The apparent demand increased by 153,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. With the approaching cold air, the demand is expected to weaken, but the steel price may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - economic factors and high costs [4]. Aluminum - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will cancel the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. In the short term, the policy has boosted the aluminum price, but in the long term, it may suppress aluminum demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9]. Gold - Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and concerns about the Fed's independence may weaken. With strong US economic data, the short - term demand for interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward momentum of precious metals has weakened [10]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year. The short - term urgency for interest rate cuts has decreased. Industrial demand supports silver, but the price increase is limited in the short term [1]. 3.3. Chemicals PTA - The social inventory of PTA is 2.8674 million tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.76%. The polyester load is slowly decreasing, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed market sentiment. PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31%. The port inventory decreased by 101,900 tons to 1.4353 million tons. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6494 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.19%, a decrease of 0.42%. The commercial inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 695,500 tons. Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 52.3 Thai baht/kg. The domestic rubber production area has stopped harvesting, and the raw material price in Southeast Asia is firm. The social inventory of natural rubber in China has seasonally increased to a neutral level. It is recommended to short - sell or wait and see in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia has lowered the reference price and tariffs, but strong export data and Indonesia's signal of long - term supply tightening have led to a market expectation of tightening supply. It is recommended to trade in a range in the short term [8]. 3.4. Agriculture Soybean Meal - On January 15, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton. The market has demand, but the willingness to chase high - priced soybeans is weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the first quarter. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term [7]. Corn - Not covered in the report. Wheat - Not covered in the report. Livestock - On January 15, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%. The pig price is expected to fluctuate after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the reduction of breeding sows [8]. 3.5. Others Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank has implemented measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be more volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10]. Futures - Not covered comprehensively. Only short - term evaluations of various commodity futures are provided in the report.

Report Information - Report Date: January 15, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Spot and Futures Daily Report Steel and Iron Ore Futures Quotes - **Prices**: The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, and coking coal futures all showed declines, with iron ore and coking coal seeing relatively large drops of - 1.03% and - 1.00% respectively for their main contracts [2]. - **Volumes and Positions**: Trading volumes and open interest varied, with coking coal having a large trading volume of 1,022,581 for its main contract and a significant decrease in trading volume of - 234,639 [2]. Spot Prices and Basis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 10 to 3290, while the spot price of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 3290 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of iron ore increased by 4 to 11, and the basis of coking coal increased by 9 to 302.5 [3]. Spread and Profit - **Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of various varieties changed, and the spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and coking coal all increased [4]. - **Profit**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil mill profits on the futures market increased, with hot - rolled coil mill profit rising by 15.8 to 69.2 [4]. Chemicals Futures Quotes - **Prices**: The closing prices of soda ash, glass, methanol, and PP futures generally declined, except for PP which had a small increase [8]. - **Volumes and Positions**: Soda ash had an increase in trading volume and open interest, while glass had a decrease in trading volume and open interest [8]. Spot Prices and Basis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 20 to 2240, and the spot price of PP in East China increased by 21 to 6494 [10]. - **Basis**: The basis of soda ash increased by 29 to 37, and the basis of methanol decreased by 5 to - 33 [10]. Spread - The spreads between different contracts of various varieties changed, such as the spread of soda ash 05 - 09 decreasing by 1 to - 63 [11]. Financial Futures Futures Quotes - **Prices**: The closing prices of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) and bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, 30 - year) showed mixed trends, with gold and silver futures generally rising [14]. - **Volumes and Positions**: Trading volumes and open interest of most varieties decreased, except for some bond futures which had an increase in trading volume [14]. Spot Prices and Basis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold was 1037.61, and the spot price of silver was 22765 [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of IM increased by 21.68 to 45.38, and the basis of silver decreased by 129 to - 258 [15]. Spread - The spreads between different contracts and varieties of bond futures changed, such as the spread of 30 - year and 10 - year bonds decreasing by 2.60 to 3.16 [16]. Energy and Petrochemicals Futures Quotes - **Prices**: The closing prices of crude oil, PTA, PX, rubber, and NR futures all declined, with PX seeing a relatively large drop of - 2.49% for its main contract [19]. - **Volumes and Positions**: Trading volumes and open interest of most varieties decreased, except for PX which had an increase in trading volume [19]. Spot Prices and Basis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of crude oil in Oman increased by 6 to 407, and the spot price of rubber in Shanghai decreased by 150 to 15700 [21]. - **Basis**: The basis of crude oil increased by 60 to - 38, and the basis of PTA increased by 136 to 17 [21]. Spread - The spreads between different contracts of various varieties changed, such as the spread of PX main - far - month increasing by 264 to 174 [22]. Non - ferrous Metals Futures Quotes - **Prices**: The closing prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, alumina, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate futures showed mixed trends, with nickel and tin seeing relatively large increases of 4.08% and 8.30% respectively for their main contracts [24]. - **Volumes and Positions**: Trading volumes and open interest of most varieties changed, with nickel having a large trading volume of 1,737,987 for its main contract and an increase in trading volume of 667,293 [24]. Spot Prices and Basis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of copper was 102575, and the spot price of aluminum was 24190 [26]. - **Basis**: The basis of zinc increased by 225 to 320, and the basis of lithium carbonate decreased by 5280 to - 4220 [26]. Ratio - The ratios between different non - ferrous metals changed, such as the copper - aluminum ratio decreasing by 0.0155 to 4.22 [27]. Agricultural Products Futures Quotes - **Prices**: The closing prices of hog, corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, and egg futures showed mixed trends, with egg futures rising by 2.23% [30]. - **Volumes and Positions**: Trading volumes and open interest of most varieties changed, with egg futures having a large increase in trading volume of 267701 [30]. Spot Prices and Basis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of hog was 13000, and the spot price of corn was 2250 [32]. - **Basis**: The basis of hog increased by 60 to 1050, and the basis of egg decreased by 59 to 534 [32]. Ratio and Spread - **Ratio**: The hog - grain ratio decreased by 0.08 to 5.2070 [33]. - **Spread**: The spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 108 to - 640 [33]. Other Commodities Futures Quotes - **Prices**: The closing prices of sugar, cotton, cotton yarn, apple, jujube, corn starch, and European line container shipping futures showed mixed trends, with corn starch rising by 0.59% [35]. - **Volumes and Positions**: Trading volumes and open interest of most varieties changed, with sugar having a decrease in trading volume of - 66390 [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows moderate growth and enhanced resilience, reducing the need for interest rate cuts. Industrial demand supports silver, but attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [1]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, while downstream demand is slightly decreasing. Methanol port inventory has significantly decreased, and the spot market performs well. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. - High costs support steel prices, but weak downstream demand restricts price increases. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [4]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment by steel mills provides some support for ore prices in the short term [4]. - The supply pressure of ferrosilicon is currently not large, but there is a possibility of increased supply pressure in the future. Caution is needed when looking at the upside space of prices [5]. - The national pig price shows mixed trends. Supply - demand game continues, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a range after a short - term increase [5]. - The upper limit of palm oil price is suppressed by inventory accumulation, but there is strong support at the bottom. It has entered a shock - adjustment stage in the short term [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is generally loose in the first quarter, and weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. It has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term [7]. - Geopolitical risks support gold, but excessive bullishness is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [7]. - The capital market is loose, but there is a marginal tightening, which is generally negative for the bond market. Treasury bonds show increased volatility [7]. - The over - estimation of copper demand in AI data centers may weaken the support for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [8]. - Geopolitical factors support oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see for now [9]. - The inventory of plastic production enterprises has decreased, but demand is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market shows general trends, with high - level inventory rising significantly. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PTA is in a shock - transition stage [12]. - Natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [13]. Summary by Variety Silver - The US economy shows moderate growth, and industrial demand supports silver. However, the impact of gold fluctuations on silver needs attention [1]. Methanol - Port inventory is 143.53 million tons, a weekly decrease of 10.19 million tons. Production enterprise inventory is 45.09 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 0.32 million tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,257 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The weekly production capacity utilization rate is 91.42%, a 1.01% increase. The downstream total production capacity utilization rate is 73.54%, a 0.49% weekly decrease. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On January 14, the domestic steel market fluctuated. The ex - factory price of billets in Tangshan Qian'an was stable at 2,970 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,342 yuan/ton, remaining stable. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand restricts increases. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [4]. - Iron ore: From January 5th to 11th, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 3.015 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 190.3 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, but winter storage replenishment by steel mills provides short - term support [4]. Ferrosilicon - The sample开工率 of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 29.63%, a 0.09% weekly increase. The daily output is 14,155 tons, a 0.14% increase. There is a possibility of increased supply pressure in the future [5]. Livestock - Pig: On January 14, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.06 yuan/kg, a 0.1% increase. The national pig price shows mixed trends, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a range after a short - term increase [5]. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% on March 1, 2026. The price is under inventory pressure but has strong support at the bottom, entering a shock - adjustment stage [6]. - Soybean meal: On January 14, the domestic spot price was 3,161 yuan/ton. The supply is generally loose in the first quarter, and it has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term [7]. Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical risks support gold, but excessive bullishness is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [7]. Bonds - Long - term Treasury bonds: The central bank will conduct a 90 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on January 15, with an additional 30 - billion - yuan roll - over. The bond market shows increased volatility [7]. Base Metals - Copper: The over - estimation of copper demand in AI data centers may weaken the support for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [8]. Energy - Crude oil: As of January 9, the total US crude oil inventory increased by 3.605 million barrels week - on - week. Geopolitical factors support oil prices. It is advisable to wait and see for now [9]. Plastics - Plastic: The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,967 yuan/ton, a 62 - yuan increase. The weekly output is 301,600 tons, a 4.45% decrease. The production enterprise inventory is 122,400 tons, a 15.53% decrease. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. Chemicals - Soda ash: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,236 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The weekly output is 753,600 tons, an 8.11% increase. The manufacturer's total inventory is 1.5727 million tons, an 11.67% increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PTA: The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 and 24 days. It is in a shock - transition stage [12]. Rubber - Natural rubber: The price of raw material glue in Thailand has stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic apparent inventory is accumulating. It is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and concerns over the Fed's independence have led to a resurgence in precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [1]. - Geopolitical risks have driven up crude oil prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. - Steel prices may rise first and then fall this week, showing a range - bound pattern [3]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve, and there is still upward momentum in both futures and spot prices [3]. - The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon remains loose, and the price is expected to gradually decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - The short - term supply - demand game in the pig market continues, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with inventory accumulation suppressing the upside but strong support at the bottom [5]. - The upside of soybean meal prices is restricted, and the 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - The bond market is under pressure due to tightening funds, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and expected decline in imports [7]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with high - level inventory increase and new production capacity pressure [8]. - PVC prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with sufficient supply, weak domestic demand, and rising inventory [9]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern, supported by long - term expectations but lacking short - term demand drive [10]. - PTA will transit in a fluctuating manner, with a supply increase and weakening demand as the holiday approaches [11]. - Natural rubber will be treated with a wide - range fluctuation, with rising raw material prices, inventory accumulation, and flexible production control in the demand side [12]. Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions have eased slightly, but risk - aversion factors still exist. The Fed's independence has raised market concerns, leading to a resurgence in precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and the interaction between gold and silver [1]. - **Silver**: The ongoing investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has affected market expectations. Risk - aversion and expectations of monetary easing have led to a rise in silver prices, but the upward momentum needs attention [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories. EIA predicts a decline in US crude oil production in the forecast period. Geopolitical risks have driven up prices, and in the short - term, the price may remain strong with emotional premiums [1]. Metals - **Steel**: On January 13, domestic steel markets showed mixed trends. High costs support steel prices, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a decline in prices later this week, with a range - bound pattern [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased, and inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve, leading to upward momentum in prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The开工率 of silicon - manganese enterprises has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price is expected to decline to the cost valuation in the medium term [4]. - **Copper**: The US CPI growth rate has reached the lowest level since July 2025, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts in the second quarter have increased, which may boost copper prices in the short term. The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality", and copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level range - bound pattern [10]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia will maintain the biodiesel policy at the B40 level. The domestic import profit has been significantly repaired, and the number of domestic purchases has increased. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The downstream feed enterprises have high inventory levels, and the supply of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is still abundant, restricting the upside of prices. The 05 contract is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [5]. - **Pig**: The national pig prices showed mixed trends. The supply - demand game will continue in the short term, with prices fluctuating slightly in the range of 11700 - 11900 and the price center shifting upward [4]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has declined slightly, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash has declined slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen significantly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. - **PVC**: The price has increased slightly, production is expected to increase slowly, and inventory has risen. The market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The production of PTA has increased year - on - year, and the supply is expected to increase in January. The demand is expected to weaken as the holiday approaches, and the market will transit in a fluctuating manner [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material prices in Southeast Asia have stopped falling and rebounded, and domestic inventory has accumulated. The demand side is in a state of flexible production control, and the market will show a wide - range fluctuation [12]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Shibor short - term varieties have risen, indicating tightening funds. The bond market is under pressure, and treasury bonds will show more volatility [6].

1. Report Date - The report is the Futures Spot Daily Report on January 13, 2026 [1] 2. Steel and Related Products 2.1 Futures Market Performance - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, rebar主力2605 closed at 3158, unchanged from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 837,879 and a decrease of 119,553; hot - rolled coil主力2605 closed at 3303, down 3 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 404,061 and a decrease of 4,668 [2] - Iron ore主力2605 closed at 819.5, down 2 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 311,621 and an increase of 39,577; coke主力2605 closed at 1745, down 19 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 20,384 and a decrease of 1,868; coking coal主力2605 closed at 1191, down 30.5 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 1,292,258 and a decrease of 304,912 [2] 2.2 Spot Market Performance - The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20MM) in Shanghai was 3300, down 10 from the previous day; the spot price of hot - rolled coil (4.75MM) in Shanghai was 3290, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of iron ore (Rizhao Port PB powder) was 826, down 3 from the previous day; the spot price of coke in Xingtai was 1370, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of coking coal in Liulin was 1490, up 20 from the previous day [3] 2.3 Basis and Spread - Rebar basis was 142, down 3 from the previous day; hot - rolled coil basis was - 13, up 8 from the previous day; iron ore basis was 6.5, unchanged from the previous day; coke basis was - 375, up 25 from the previous day; coking coal basis was 299, up 67 from the previous day [3] - Rebar 05 - 10 spread was - 44, up 2 from the previous day; hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread was - 18, up 1 from the previous day; iron ore 05 - 10 spread was 25.5, up 0.5 from the previous day; coke 05 - 10 spread was - 97, down 27 from the previous day; coking coal 05 - 10 spread was - 90, down 22 from the previous day [4] 3. Chemical Products 3.1 Futures Market Performance - Soda ash主力2605 closed at 1212, down 16 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 1,041,362 and a decrease of 210,340; glass主力2605 closed at 1096, down 32 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 1,644,156 and a decrease of 138,239; methanol主力2605 closed at 2263, down 4 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 1,600,904 and an increase of 137,923; PP主力2605 closed at 6545, up 46 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 427,937 and a decrease of 73,189 [8] 3.2 Spot Market Performance - The spot price of soda ash in East China and Chongqing was 1230, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price of float glass was 1097, up from the previous day; the mainstream price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2263, up 5 from the previous day; the spot price of PP in East China was 6434, up 3 from the previous day [9] 3.3 Basis and Spread - Soda ash basis was 18, up 27 from the previous day; glass basis was 1, up 51 from the previous day; methanol basis was 0, up 6 from the previous day; PP basis was - 111, up 52 from the previous day [9] - Soda ash 05 - 09 spread was - 61, up 2 from the previous day; glass 05 - 09 spread was - 145, down 47 from the previous day; methanol 05 - 09 spread was - 5, down 7 from the previous day; PP 05 - 09 spread was - 40, up from the previous day; glass 2605 - soda ash 2605 spread was - 116, down 20 from the previous day; PP2605 - 3 * methanol 2605 spread was - 244, down 15 from the previous day [10] 4. Financial Futures and Precious Metals 4.1 Futures Market Performance - IF主力 closed at 4758.60, down 20.80 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 97,329 and an increase of 8,141; IH主力 closed at 3137.60, down 4.60 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 41,076 and an increase of 7,512; IC主力 closed at 8131.20, down 98.80 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 120,900 and an increase of 6,310; IM主力 closed at 8160.40, down 145.80 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 178,731 and an increase of 5,780 [13] - The two - year Treasury bond主力 closed at 102.33, unchanged from the previous settlement; the five - year Treasury bond主力 closed at 105.63, up 0.04 from the previous settlement; the ten - year Treasury bond主力 closed at 107.85, up 0.06 from the previous settlement; the thirty - year Treasury bond主力 closed at 111.35, up 0.31 from the previous settlement [13] - Shanghai gold主力 closed at 1027.18, up 10.28 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 197,421 and a decrease of 40,906; Shanghai silver主力 closed at 21030.00, up 1151.00 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 136,532 and a decrease of 29,618 [13] 4.2 Basis and Spread - IF basis was 2.43, down 0.99 from the previous day; IH basis was - 4.67, down 7.34 from the previous day; IC basis was 12.08, down 5.28 from the previous day; IM basis was 42.73, up 19.04 from the previous day; gold basis was - 4.02, down 7.82 from the previous day; silver basis was 5.00, up 134.00 from the previous day [14] - The ratio of Shanghai gold index to Shanghai silver index was 0.05, down 0.03 from the previous day; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 3.50, down 2.25 from the previous day; the spread between 30 - year and 5 - year Treasury bonds was 5.72, down 1.46 from the previous day; the spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bonds was 2.22, up 0.79 from the previous day; the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 5.52, up 1.69 from the previous day; the spread between 5 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 3.30, up 0.90 from the previous day [15] 5. Energy and Chemical - Related Products 5.1 Futures Market Performance - Crude oil主力 closed at 445.6, up 9.9 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 65,173 and a decrease of 21,400; PTA主力 closed at 5140, down 16 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 1,098,411 and a decrease of 483,789; PX主力 closed at 7282, down 36 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 296,944 and a decrease of 100,184; rubber主力 closed at 15975, unchanged from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 380,256 and an increase of 30,564; NR主力 closed at 12840, down 55 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 70,227 and an increase of 585 [18] 5.2 Spot Market Performance - The spot price of crude oil (Oman) was 392.0, up 4.0 from the previous day; the spot price of PTA in East China was 5060, down 35 from the previous day; the spot price of PX at Zhenhai Refining & Chemical in Zhejiang was 7500, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 15800, unchanged from the previous day [19] 5.3 Basis and Spread - Crude oil basis was - 54, up from the previous day; PTA basis was - 80, up 39 from the previous day; PX basis was 218, up 52 from the previous day; rubber basis was - 175, up 1465 from the previous day [19] - Crude oil主力 - far - month spread was - 445.6, down 447.2 from the previous day; PTA主力 - far - month spread was - 60, down 42 from the previous day; PX主力 - far - month spread was - 7320, down 7230 from the previous day; rubber主力 - far - month spread was 25, up 165 from the previous day; PXN was 338, down 1 from the previous day; PTA cash - flow cost was 4948, down 10 from the previous day [20] 6. Non - ferrous Metals 6.1 Futures Market Performance - Shanghai copper主力 closed at 102,290, down 470 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 225,437 and an increase of 15,695; Shanghai aluminum主力 closed at 24,375, down 210 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 825,553 and an increase of 170,542; Shanghai zinc主力 closed at 24,235, up 205 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 152,709 and an increase of 48,147; Shanghai nickel主力 closed at 138,450, down 3,130 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 1,277,651 and an increase of 194,449; Shanghai tin主力 closed at 379,330, up 15,010 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 470,223 and an increase of 187,240; alumina主力 closed at 2,780, down 59 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 964,869 and an increase of 97,851; industrial silicon主力 closed at 8,635, down 145 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 270,076 and an increase of 776; lithium carbonate主力 closed at 166,980, up 11,560 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 608,177 and an increase of 539,686 [23] 6.2 Basis and Spread - Shanghai copper basis was 220, up 785 from the previous day; Shanghai aluminum basis was - 75, up 235 from the previous day; Shanghai zinc basis was 95, up 80 from the previous day; Shanghai nickel basis was 6,750, up 4100 from the previous day; Shanghai tin basis was 870, up 9240 from the previous day; alumina basis was - 92, up 83 from the previous day; industrial silicon basis was 865, up 120 from the previous day; lithium carbonate basis was - 7,480, down 3420 from the previous day [24] - The nickel - tin ratio was 0.36, down 0.0176 from the previous day; the copper - aluminum ratio was 4.20, down 0.0144 from the previous day; the copper - zinc ratio was 4.22, down 0.0818 from the previous day; the copper - nickel ratio was 0.74, up 0.0190 from the previous day; the copper - tin ratio was 0.27, down 0.0057 from the previous day [25] 7. Agricultural Products 7.1 Basis - The basis of live pigs was 1,205, up 40 from the previous day; the basis of corn was - 34, up 8 from the previous day; the basis of soybean meal was 399, up 19 from the previous day; the basis of fruit boxes was 76, up 6 from the previous day; the basis of soybean oil was 604, up 108 from the previous day; the basis of rapeseed oil was 833, up 113 from the previous day; the basis of palm oil was 122, up 196 from the previous day; the basis of eggs was 560, up 130 from the previous day [27] 7.2 Spread and Ratio - The pig - grain ratio was 5.1642, up 0.04 from the previous day; the spread between the two types of rapeseed oil was 447, down 13 from the previous day; the spread between soybean meal and soybean oil was - 792, down 62 from the previous day; the spread between soybean oil and rapeseed oil was - 1031, down 45 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 239, down 17 from the previous day; the oil - box ratio (soybean oil/soybean box) was 2.8924, up 0.03 from the previous day; the oil - box ratio (rapeseed oil/rapeseed box) was 3.8967, up 0.04 from the previous day [28] 8. Other Products 8.1 Futures Market Performance - Sugar closed at 5,253, down 33 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 221,246 and an increase of 30,716; Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,760, up 195 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 547,023 and a decrease of 68,350; cotton yarn closed at 20,765, up 160 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 10,121 and an increase of 864; apples closed at 9,779, up 142 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 153,672 and an increase of 86,087; red dates closed at 9,060, down 100 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 91,864 and an increase of 11,198; corn starch closed at 2,561, up 8 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 89,060 and a decrease of 22,462; European line container shipping closed at 1,200, down 69 from the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 44,098 and a decrease of 20,59

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have driven up crude oil prices, with the Iranian situation worsening and short - term sentiment premiums likely to continue [2]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence due to the investigation of Powell have led to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [2]. - Steel prices may first rise and then fall, showing a range - bound trend due to cost support and weakening demand [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate due to inventory pressure, supply uncertainties, and demand support [4]. - The supply - demand structure of coke may tighten, and the futures price will follow coking coal and fluctuate [5]. - Hog prices will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games, and attention should be paid to the slaughter volume and sow culling [5]. - Palm oil prices are supported by improved exports and lower production in January, but are suppressed by inventory accumulation [6]. - Spot prices of soybean meal have increased, but the upside is limited due to high inventory levels, and the 05 contract is in a shock - consolidation phase [6]. - Tightening of the capital market is negative for the bond market, and the volatility of treasury bonds has increased [7]. - Silver prices have risen due to risk - aversion and monetary easing expectations, but the upward momentum needs attention [7]. - PX is in an adjustment phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Natural rubber prices will show a wide - range fluctuation [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [10]. - Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - PVC prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [12]. - Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term [13]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - In December 2025, Iran's daily crude oil export volume decreased by 100,000 barrels, and daily production decreased from nearly 4 million barrels in September to 3.24 million barrels in December due to US sanctions. Venezuela's daily crude oil supply decreased by 70,000 barrels in December 2025, and the impact is expected to intensify in January 2026 [2]. Gold - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and strengthened precious metals [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - On January 12, domestic steel prices rose slightly. The price of billets in Tangshan increased by 10 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar increased by 5 yuan to 3342 yuan/ton. High costs support steel prices, but weak demand may limit the upward trend [4]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 162.7526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.0437 million tons. The daily port clearance volume decreased by 1.94 tons to 3.2327 million tons, and the number of ships in port increased by 11 to 116 [4]. Coke - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.69%, an increase of 0.97%. Daily coke production was 635,700 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. Coke inventory decreased by 55,300 tons to 860,700 tons, and coking coal inventory increased by 191,800 tons to 10.7168 million tons [5]. Hog - On January 12, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.83 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from last Friday. Egg prices increased by 0.8% to 7.61 yuan/kg. Hog prices showed mixed trends, and the price will fluctuate slightly with supply - demand games [5]. Palm Oil - In December, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 319,700 tons, and exports increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons. The January export situation has improved [6]. Soybean Meal - In the second week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,700 tons (0.40%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.0856 million tons (17.96%). The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 126,200 tons (10.78%) and a year - on - year increase of 439,400 tons (72.68%) [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased. The overnight rate increased by 4.4BP to 1.316%, the 7 - day rate increased by 1.2BP to 1.473%, the 14 - day rate increased by 0.2BP to 1.489%, and the 1 - month rate decreased by 0.1BP to 1.556% [7]. Silver - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to increased risk - aversion and a rise in silver prices [7]. PTA - The domestic PX load was 90.9% (+0.3%), and the Asian PX load was 81.3% (+0.4%). Some domestic factories increased short - process production, and some overseas devices restarted. PX supply remains high in January [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material latex was 57 baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, US tire imports increased by 5.4% year - on - year [9]. Aluminum - On January 12, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan was 24,390 yuan/ton, a single - day increase of 290 yuan/ton. The high price and high basis have led to strong selling intentions of holders, but weak downstream purchasing [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,239 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Factory inventory increased by 11.67% to 1.5727 million tons. The float glass operating rate decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.03%, and the average price increased by 7 yuan to 1,083 yuan/ton. Glass inventory decreased by 2.37% to 55.518 million weight boxes [11]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 PVC was 4,620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, an increase of 1.04%. Social inventory increased by 3.48% to 1.1141 million tons. The average profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC producers was - 634 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers was - 192 yuan/ton [12]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The 500,000 - ton/year methanol device of Jiuyuan Chemical is expected to end maintenance this week. Downstream capacity utilization decreased by 0.49% to 73.54%. Port inventory increased by 40,800 tons to 1.5372 million tons, and production enterprise inventory increased by 25,100 tons to 447,700 tons [13].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - This week, the steel market showed the operating characteristics of "driven by macro and funds, with weakening fundamentals" and maintained a range - bound oscillation. Although the price strengthened at the beginning of the week driven by the rotation of commodity price increases, the macro - sentiment cooled significantly due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate cut intensity caused by the worse - than - expected US employment data. At the industrial level, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand for rebar was established, with a slight increase in output, a significant decline in apparent demand, and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing, indicating increasing fundamental pressure. Looking ahead, steel demand is seasonally weakening. As steel mills gradually resume production, rebar inventory accumulation is becoming evident. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the cost side still supports steel prices, and it is expected that prices will maintain an oscillatory operation [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market Review and Outlook - The steel market this week was characterized by "macro and fund - driven with weakening fundamentals" and oscillated within a range. The price initially strengthened due to commodity - price rotation but later weakened due to US employment data concerns. At the industrial level, rebar supply increased while demand decreased, and inventory started to accumulate. In the future, demand will weaken seasonally, rebar inventory will accumulate as mills resume production, but cost support will keep prices oscillating [1] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The daily average hot - metal output of steel mills was 229.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons (0.91%). Rebar steel - mill inventory was 147.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.56 million tons (6.14%). Rebar social inventory was 290.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 million tons (2.66%). Hot - rolled coil steel - mill inventory was 77.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5 million tons (- 6.07%). Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 290.81 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 million tons (0.75%) [3] Futures Market Review - The report presents multiple figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][6][8] Spot Market Review - The report shows figures related to the spot market, such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [13][14] Fundamental Data - The report provides figures related to fundamental data, including the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast - furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend charts, and seasonal analyses of rebar and hot - rolled coil steel - mill and social inventories [18][22][24][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. On the 31st, leading steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places lowered the tender price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the fourth round of coke price cut was implemented at 0:00 on the 1st. Recently, the rise of the double - coking futures market has repaired market sentiment, with mixed results in online auctions, improved trading volume, and prices stabilizing and rebounding slightly. Looking ahead, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. Coupled with the Spring Festival holiday of domestic coal mines, the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The demand side is expected to further improve during the downstream replenishment. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in both futures and spot prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. Steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the tender price of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the fourth round of coke price cut was implemented. The rise of the double - coking futures market repaired market sentiment, with improved trading volume and prices stabilizing and rebounding slightly. The impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The demand side is expected to improve during downstream replenishment, and coking coal fundamentals will improve marginally with upward price momentum [2] 3.2 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Coking coal total inventory was 2169.21 million tons, up 10.13 million tons or 0.47% week - on - week. Coke total inventory was 915.9 million tons, up 3.04 million tons or 0.33% week - on - week. Steel mills' daily average hot metal output was 229.5 million tons, up 2.07 million tons or 0.91% week - on - week. Independent coking enterprises' profit per ton of coke was - 45 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 28.57% week - on - week [4] 3.3 Futures Market Review - The report provides a 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke's main contracts, with data from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [6] 3.4 Spot Market Review - The report shows charts of the average price of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal, the aggregated price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, the first - grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel's metallurgical coke, coking coal basis, and coke basis, with data from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [8][11][14] 3.5 Fundamental Data - The report presents charts of the daily average output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, with data from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [18][20][23]

期货研究报告 2026年01月12日 生猪期货：底部震荡整理 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）生猪现货呈 "震荡回升、局部偏强"，期货延续 "近弱远强"，多空 博弈聚焦出栏节奏与春节备货。 供应端：规模猪企 1 月计划出栏约 1415 万头，环比降近 3%，头部控量挺价；大体重猪源仍多，二 次育肥入场放缓，出栏体重高位回落。需求端：节前终端消费偏弱，屠企开工率回升有限，春节备货逐步 启动但节奏偏缓，支撑力度不足。 支撑因素：养殖端缩量挺价，集团出栏计划下调，二次育肥入场，北方消费支撑，猪粮比回升至盈亏 平衡线附近。压制因素：南方腌腊需求退潮，大体重猪源消化困难，市场整体供应仍充足，元旦后终端消 费转弱。短期生猪主力2603合约运行区间 11700—11900元/吨 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仔猪 | 元/头 | ...

期货研究报告 2026年01月12日 周报 贵金属期货：地缘扰动增加利多因素 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货研究报告 1.期货市场回顾 图 1： 黄金期货内外盘价格 元/克 美元/金衡盎司 图 2：白银期货内外盘价格 元/千克 美元/金衡盎司 报告导读： 关注因素：1.中东地区地缘风险演化 2.美联储高层更迭 3.美国经济数据 市场回顾与展望：美国"闪击"委内瑞拉，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗最早可能于1月5日在纽约曼哈顿的联 邦法院出庭受审。美国总统特朗普称，已取消此前预计的对委内瑞拉第二波军事打击。但出于安全保障目 的，所有美国舰船都维持原地部署。约旦军方消息称，当地时间1月10日晚，约旦武装部队通过皇家空军 对极端组织"伊斯兰国"在叙利亚境内的多个目标实施精准空袭。约旦方面表示，此次行动是在国际联盟 框架下，同有关伙伴协调进行的，叙利亚方面也参与其中。地缘扰动再度起波澜，避险因素使得贵金属做 多热情再度增加，但是行情震荡回调不是很充分，贵金属短期上方空间有多少，无法估计，谨慎追多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员 ...