Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook has increased, which has an impact on various commodities [2][3]. - The prices of different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions, including gold, crude oil, pork, palm oil, etc. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The results of the interest - rate meeting were in line with market expectations, but the short - term rebound of the US dollar index may put pressure on gold. It is advisable to have a slightly bearish view on gold's medium - term high - level shock [2]. Crude Oil - As of May 2, US crude oil inventories decreased, but the Fed's policy statement was hawkish. Trump's stance on tariffs also added uncertainty. In the short term, inventory pressure is not large, but in the medium and long term, with OPEC+ increasing production, supply is expected to be in surplus. After the rebound, it will be in a phased shock [3]. Pork - On May 7, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.3% compared with the previous day. The national pig price is mainly stable, with normal slaughter by farmers and some price - holding sentiment. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly. The production in April also increased compared with the previous month. The production is growing continuously, lacking positive news. It follows the trend of competing oils. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly recovering, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the production data reports of major producing countries [6]. Soybean - Brazil's expected soybean exports in May are 12.6 million tons, and the expected soybean meal exports are 1.87 million tons, both lower than the same period last year. The domestic soybean market is relatively calm. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Silver - The Fed's interest - rate meeting was in line with market expectations, but Powell's speech increased the market's expectations of rising unemployment and inflation in the US, and the expected interest - rate cut in July may be postponed. The tariff negotiations between the US and the EU are ongoing, which suppresses risk appetite. Fundamentally, it is bearish for silver. It is advisable to have a medium - term wide - range shock view and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [7]. Treasury Bonds - On May 8, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined slightly. The bond cash market yields declined slightly, and the opening of treasury bonds may rise. A package of financial policies were issued to stabilize the market, and the short - term bullish sentiment in the A - share market has basically been fulfilled, which is bullish for the bond market. There may be a certain degree of differentiation between short - term and long - term treasury bonds, and the bond market's own logic is not clear. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and it is advisable to have a medium - term shock view [8]. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, and the customs clearance at Ganqimao remains low with high - level inventory decreasing. The second - round price increase of coke has been shelved, and the trading atmosphere is average. There is still rigid demand support, but the demand expectation is not good, and there is still surplus pressure in the medium and long term. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - From April 28 to May 4, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports showed different trends. The rigid demand for iron ore is strong, but there are concerns about the decline in terminal demand and the uncertainty of production - restriction policies. The upward momentum of ore prices is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a shock trend in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 2509 contract [10]. Rebar - On May 7, the domestic steel market rose slightly. The central bank's interest - rate cut and reserve - requirement ratio cut will provide long - term liquidity to the market, but the downstream demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and speculative demand is not active. In the short term, macro - favorable policies will push steel prices to be strong, but considering the supply - demand fundamentals, it may continue to have a wide - range shock trend [10]. Rubber - The raw material prices in Thailand are rising, and the raw material supply in Hainan has increased. The export volume of Vietnam's natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter decreased year - on - year. The domestic main producing areas will enter the full - scale tapping period, and tire demand is weak. However, the import volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, and the inventory in Qingdao may continue to decline. It should be treated with a slightly bullish view on the shock and pay attention to the rhythm [11]. PTA - PX and PTA are still in the centralized maintenance period, but the downstream weaving and texturing start - up rates have decreased. After May, the polyester start - up rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of PTA is expected to weaken. It is advisable to wait and see [12][13]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang increased by 2 yuan/ton. The start - up rate decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, and some devices are expected to resume production. The downstream demand decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term weak shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash in the country is stable, the start - up rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The start - up rate of float glass is stable, and the market transaction is average. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [14]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream alumina start - up rate decreased, and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [15].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】在美联储议息会议召开前夕，号称"美联储 传声筒"的尼克·蒂米劳斯发文称，美联储正面临两难境地， 并暗示美联储可能会暂缓降息。评：市场普遍预期美联储将5月 会议上维持利率不变。市场更关注美联储主席鲍威尔将释放何 种政策基调，及如何解读关税政策的影响，贵金属震荡等待消 息指引。黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思路为宜。 【短评-原油】克普勒周一表示，2025年剩余时间以及2026 年，美国原油供应的增长速度将比预期更为缓慢，其对2025年 剩余时间以及2026年美国原油供应增长的预测下调了12万桶/日 至每日17万桶/日。外交部发言人宣布：中方同意同美方进行接 触。评：中国财政部部长蓝佛安表示中方将采取更加积极有为 的宏观政策有信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标，这明显提振 了市场风险偏好，关税层面也传出积极信息，提振市场信心。 整体上，原油短期库存压力不大，中长期随着OPEC+增产步伐的 推进，供应预期过剩。策略上，短期观望或短线，静待反弹行 情结束。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月07日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F ...

投资咨询中心 2025年05月06日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】Mysteel247家钢厂高炉开工率84.33%，环 比上周持平，同比去年增加3.73个百分点；日均铁水产量 245.42万吨，环比上周增加1.07万吨，同比去年增加14.75万 吨。评：基本面钢材产量和表需暂时都维持高位，库存去库较 好。前期钢价的波动基本跟随宏观市场情绪，中美加征关税的 预期反复干扰盘面。考虑高关税对出口需求的抑制，后期需求 大概率走弱。季节性看，目前低库存为钢价提供支撑，在预期 悲观情况下，低库存更多表现为基差走强。但如果需求预期转 好，低库存能给绝对价格提供向上弹性。建议短期螺纹钢逢高 做空。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布，授权商务部和美国贸 易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征 收100%的关税。他表示， ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国财长贝森特表示，美将在接下来几周内 与至少17个合作伙伴进行会谈；有很大机会在税收法案中看到 所得税减免，关税收入或可用于减税；美国总统已会晤国内外 汽车制造商，希望给予汽车制造商创造就业的机会。评：关税 担忧或有所缓和，避险情绪有所减弱，市场回归美国经济基本 面和美联储降息进程方面。市场等待美国一季度GDP及3月PCE数 据指引。黄金短期上涨动力不足，黄金下方空间亦有限，黄金 中期高位震荡略偏多思路为宜。关注俄乌冲突谈判及美联储降 息预期。 【短评-烧碱】山东32%液碱780元/吨，价格暂稳；山东液 碱价格及液氯价格下调，氯碱利润414元/吨；烧碱周度产能利 用率82.1%，环比-0.2%；液碱样本企业周度库存40.85万吨，周 下降2.74%；下游氧化铝周开工79%，下降1%、粘胶短纤周开工 77.2%，下降1%。评：目前烧碱装置开工高位，企业库存高位下 降，下游氧化铝利润低，部分在检修产能预期恢复生产。山东 液碱市场供应充裕，下游企业采购谨慎，整体交投氛围低迷。 预计烧碱09合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力2455一线，建议观 望。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-9元/吨；山西准一级焦平 均盈利15元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利47元/吨，内蒙二级焦 平均盈利-53元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利46元/吨。评：供应 端，焦企利润有所修复，叠加焦企出货顺畅，生产积极性较 高，供应环比小幅回升。需求端，铁水产量大幅回升至2024年 来最高位，焦炭刚需增加明显，部分焦企因下游刚需及节前补 库出货顺畅，库存小幅下移。总体上，当前焦炭市场基本面矛 盾暂不明显，但季节性需求好转临近结束，需求持续性存疑， 基本面矛盾或随需求变化逐步显现，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-黄金】美联储公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球 贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持续性高 居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜 ...

库存仍处高位，震荡运行 摘 要： 供需关系：当前纯碱开工高位，利润一般，本周预期高位较稳。 纯碱下游需求预计稳中偏弱，下游浮法玻璃预期产量下滑，光伏玻璃 本周仍有 1-2 条产线存点火预期，基于当前市场行情有转弱迹象， 不排除推迟可能。纯碱供需宽松背景下，纯碱企业库存高位难去库， 预期近期纯碱库存仍维持高位运行。预计纯碱价格近期震荡运行，09 合约上方压力 1420 一线，建议短线逢高做空，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：纯碱新产能投放加快 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

摘 要： 宏观因素扰动、棕榈油逢高沽空交易为佳 供需关系： 印度植物油进口关税或将改革，考虑提高精炼品种的 进口关税以支持国内精炼产能。豆棕现货价差倒挂缓慢修 复，下游维持刚需采购，基差仍呈弱下行，交投氛围欠佳。 增产季到来，国内 5 月到港增幅较大，近月价格承压，操 作建议逢高空为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：棕榈油期现货价格（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 2. 供应情况分析 SPPOMA 最新数据显示，2025 年 4 月 1-15 日马来西亚棕榈鲜果串单产增3.34%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to be bullish with a sideways trend [4] Core Viewpoints - The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, and the market is concerned about the clues of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold has reached a new high due to the return of risk aversion, while silver's fundamentals are weak and it is likely to follow gold passively. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the factors for going long on silver are increasing. Although the US economic data shows some resilience and the US stocks have rebounded to some extent, the market believes that the US stocks have limited upward momentum without the Fed's interest rate cut. The short - term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is weakening, and it is not an important factor affecting precious metals [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The continuous decline of the US dollar index has supported gold. The market focuses on the US tariff progress, inflation expectations, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. After the panic subsides, the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the gold's bull market. Recently, gold has slightly corrected due to the rebound of US stocks. Silver has insufficient short - term upward momentum, but its long - position momentum will increase if the Fed starts the interest rate cut process [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On April 28, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 9.7%. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022. The one - year inflation rate expectation was 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 222,000. The order of durable goods in March increased by 9.2% month - on - month. The Fed entered a quiet period on Saturday, and the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. Trump's tariff policy has increased the cost of merchants, and the prices of nearly 1,000 commodities on Amazon have risen by nearly 30% on average. The retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023 [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows that although there is increasing downward pressure, there is still resilience. The consumer confidence index in April reached a new low, but the inflation rate expectation reached a new high. The retail sales in March increased significantly, and the employment data was better than expected. The GDP in the fourth quarter was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not going smoothly, which increases the uncertainty. Trump signed administrative orders on "reciprocal tariffs", which will impose different levels of tariffs on trading partners. These factors have intensified the safe - haven property of precious metals [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Affected by the US tariff increase, risk - preference assets such as US stocks, crude oil, and copper have fallen sharply. Although US stocks have rebounded recently, Wall Street is still pessimistic about the future. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, these risk assets may rebound to some extent, but their long - term trends need further observation. Crude oil may move independently of precious metals due to geopolitical factors [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has decreased. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is not the main factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Gold may decline during holidays due to the influence of other commodities, but its safe - haven property will strengthen after the short - term liquidity crisis. It is still expected to be bullish, but the upward space is limited. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations, and its sideways characteristics will be more obvious. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the increase of silver's long - position momentum [28]

猪价短期回调做多，中长期偏强运行 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，养殖场出栏积极性尚可，屠宰端拿货 暂无压力，但受原料支撑，集团场有提价意向，虽生猪供 应充足，但低价难收购。 从需求端来看，五一临近，终端备货略有支撑，但支 撑时间偏短，预计节前1-2 日略有备货，消费支撑力度一 般。 综合来看，猪肉行情震荡偏强，操作上维持逢低做多 建议不变。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证期货 图 3：全国样本商品猪出栏均重周度走势图(公斤) 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 2.供应情况分析 ...