1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply - side pressure of the pig market will gradually ease as the reduction effect of the breeding sow inventory becomes apparent, and the demand side is expected to improve slightly. The pig price is predicted to show a trend of "low at the beginning and high at the end", and the annual average price will significantly increase compared to 2025 [4][5]. - The pig market will enter an upward cycle in 2026, with the inflection point likely to appear in the second and third quarters, and the market will achieve a substantial re - balance of supply and demand [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the Pig Market Trend in 2025 - The pig market in 2025 featured "high - pressure supply, oscillating price decline, deep industry losses, and accelerated capacity reduction". The price showed a three - stage trend: a mild decline from January to June, an accelerated decline from July to September, and a bottom - seeking at a low level from October to December. The annual average price dropped by 25.74% compared to 2024 [11][13]. - There was significant regional differentiation in the pig market in 2025, with the southern sales areas showing weak demand and the northern production areas being relatively resistant to price drops. The core reasons included the economic downturn in the south, increased scale of northern production areas, and sporadic epidemics [15]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Pig Supply - Demand Situation in 2025/26 Supply Side - In 2025, the pig supply remained high, with the annual output in the first three quarters reaching 530 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.85%. The inventory of breeding sows was above the reasonable level until October, when the capacity reduction accelerated. The main reasons for the high inventory of breeding sows were the high pig price in 2024, the scale - expansion inertia of leading enterprises, and the lack of motivation for small and medium - sized enterprises to reduce capacity [18][19]. - There was significant cost differentiation in the industry in 2025. Leading enterprises had a cost advantage, with some having a breeding cost as low as 11.3 yuan/kg in October, while small and medium - sized enterprises and scattered farmers faced large losses due to high costs [23]. - The industry's concentration increased in 2025, with leading enterprises expanding their output and small and medium - sized enterprises accelerating their exit. It is expected that the proportion of the top 20 enterprises' output will exceed 35% in 2026 [25][26]. Demand Side - The demand for pigs in 2025 was weak, with the traditional peak season having little effect. The main reasons were the decline in residents' consumption ability due to the economic downturn, the low price of substitutes, and the change in consumption habits. The national pork consumption was expected to decrease by 2% year - on - year [28][30]. Policy Side - In 2025, the "anti - involution" policy was implemented to guide rational production, stabilize the inventory of breeding sows at 39 million heads, and optimize the capacity structure. The policy was implemented in four stages, effectively guiding market expectations, accelerating capacity reduction, and promoting industry structure optimization [32][35]. Other Influencing Factors - In 2025, pig diseases were sporadically distributed, which had a certain impact on local supply and prices [38]. Pig Cycle Inflection Point - The pig market will enter an upward cycle in 2026, with the core logic being the gradual manifestation of supply - side contraction and the marginal improvement of demand. The inventory of breeding sows will stabilize in a reasonable range, promoting the transition from "capacity reduction" to "capacity stabilization" [41]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Pig Market in 2026 - In the first quarter of 2026, the pig price will be in a low - level oscillation. The supply pressure will still exist, but there will be seasonal demand support. It is expected that the average ex - factory price of national outer three - yuan pigs will rise to 12 - 12.5 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival and fall back to 11.5 - 12 yuan/kg after the Spring Festival [44]. - In the second and third quarters of 2026, the inflection point will appear, and the price will rise. The supply will contract, the demand will improve, and the pig price is expected to break through the cost line in the second - quarter end and reach 14 - 15 yuan/kg in the third - quarter end [46]. - In the fourth quarter of 2026, the price will rise steadily and oscillate at a high level. The supply will continue to contract, and the demand will be strong during the peak season. It is expected that the pig price will reach 15 - 16 yuan/kg, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head will reach 200 - 300 yuan [47][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The concentrated shutdown and maintenance of PTA enterprises remain the main means to balance the market; some old facilities in countries such as Japan and South Korea still drag down the Asian operating rate, with concentrated maintenance in the second quarter. Therefore, PXN will continue to improve in the first half of the year and face pressure in the second half as new production capacity is put into operation. The strategy is to seize low - level long - position opportunities in the first half of the year and follow crude oil operations in the second half [4][122]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In 2025, PTA reached a high of around 5300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. Then, due to seasonal inventory accumulation expectations in the first quarter, the market pressure increased, and the price declined. In the second quarter, tariff increases and new device commissions put pressure on the market. In the second half of the year, supply - demand drivers were weak, and the price fluctuated widely between 4400 - 5000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there was a significant rebound driven by concentrated PTA maintenance and PXN rebound [9]. Chapter 2: PTA Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 PTA Supply Situation - **PTA投产高峰结束, 2026年无新增产能**: As of the end of 2024, the global PTA capacity was about 110 million tons, expected to reach 116.25 million tons/year in 2025. Asia accounted for over 90%, and China accounted for over 78% of Asian capacity. In 2025 - 2030, new global PTA capacity will mainly come from Asia and the Middle East. China's PTA capacity will see a significant reduction in new capacity after 2025, with no clear new capacity planned for 2026 [13][14]. - **PTA低开工、低利润；主动检修平衡供需**: In 2025, due to over - capacity and losses, many PTA devices were shut down for maintenance. The average domestic PTA device operating rate from January to November was 77.9%, 1.98% lower than the previous year. In 2025, the PTA processing fee was at a low level, and device shutdowns and production cuts increased to balance supply and demand [18][21]. - **国外新装置投产压制, PTA出口量缩减**: In 2025, China's PTA exports declined significantly. From January to October, the cumulative export was 309.64 million tons, a 16.95% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The main reason was the slowdown in overseas polyester production and the progress of PTA certification in India. However, there were some increases in exports to emerging markets such as the UAE and Russia [28][29]. - **PTA社会库存降低**: By the end of December, PTA social inventory was 3.19 million tons, a significant decrease due to increased maintenance and high polyester production growth [32]. 2.2 PTA Demand Analysis - **内需内生动力仍不足**: In 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China showed a mild recovery. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales reached 1.2053 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase. However, in 2026, although there were policies to support consumption, the slowdown in economic growth and the decrease in residents' income and expenditure would still restrict domestic demand [36][40]. - **外需结构性分化**: In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes affected textile and clothing exports. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of textile yarn and clothing exports were 1.8% and - 3% respectively. The export market showed a clear differentiation of "growth in textiles and decline in clothing". In 2026, textile exports may show positive signs, while clothing exports will still face pressure [43][46]. - **聚酯产能扩张**: From 2016 - 2024, China's polyester capacity had an average annual growth rate of 7.09%. In 2025, 3.5 million tons of new polyester capacity was added, and in 2026, about 4 million tons of new capacity is planned. The main products for new capacity in 2026 are filaments and staple fibers [47][49]. - **聚酯开工率高、出口增速高，利润压缩**: In 2025, the average polyester operating rate was around 90%. From January to November, polyester production was 72.87 million tons, a 7.56% year - on - year increase. Polyester products were mainly exported, but the industry's profit was compressed. In 2026, the new polyester capacity growth rate will still be high, and profits are expected to remain low, but the average operating rate can maintain resilience [52][66]. Chapter 3: Upstream Analysis 3.1 Crude Oil Situation - **原油供需概况**: In 2025, international oil prices trended downward. The global crude oil market faced weak demand and increased production. IEA adjusted the supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC+ started to increase production in April 2025 and paused in the first quarter of 2026. The return of OPEC+'s remaining 1.65 million barrels/day of production in 2026 will be an important variable. Non - OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels/day in 2026, with certain increases in Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, while US production is under pressure [68][78]. - **原油消费情况**: IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. In 2026, petrochemical raw materials will be the core source of demand growth. China's crude oil demand will still increase, with petrochemical raw materials being the main growth source [89][97]. - **原油供需结论**: Most institutions predict that the growth of crude oil demand in 2026 will be around 1 million barrels/day. The supply surplus in the 2026 crude oil market is a relatively certain prediction, but the oil price may be more resilient than in 2025, and 2026 is likely to be a bottom - building year for oil prices [98]. 3.2 PX Situation - **PX产能投放进入尾声**: In 2025, the global PX capacity was about 80.68 million tons/year, with Asia dominating the supply. China contributed over 90% of the new global capacity. In 2025, there were no new PX devices in China, and the planned new capacity in 2026 is 2.6 million tons. If the Yulong Petrochemical device is put into operation, the total capacity will approach 47 million tons [99][100]. - **中国开工率偏高，亚洲开工率低**: In 2025, China's average PX operating rate was 87.1%, higher than in 2024, due to sufficient raw material supply and good short - process profits. The Asian PX operating rate was mostly between 78% - 80% due to frequent maintenance of old devices in Japan and South Korea, diversion of aromatic raw materials for oil blending, and slow progress of PX device construction in emerging markets [103]. - **中国产量微增，亚洲产量降低**: In 2025, China's PX production remained stable, with a 0.1% year - on - year increase from January to October. Asian PX production decreased by 2.4% year - on - year from January to October, mainly due to production declines in regions other than China [107]. - **中国进口量增加**: From January to October 2025, China's PX imports were 7.8569 million tons, a 3.85% year - on - year increase. The main trading partners were South Korea, Japan, etc. [111]. - **PX社会库存下降**: By December 27, PX social inventory was 4.07 million tons [114]. - **调油利润偏低迷；PXN改善**: In 2026, there will be more new PX capacity, but it will be concentrated in the second half of the year. PXN will continue to improve in the first half of the year and face pressure in the second half [120]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **行情展望**: In 2026, the crude oil market will still face a supply surplus, but the oil price may be more resilient. PX will see more new capacity in the second half of the year, with PXN facing pressure. PTA will have no new capacity, but the output of new devices in 2025 will gradually increase, and concentrated maintenance will still be the main means to balance the market. Polyester will have a high new capacity growth rate, with low profits, but the operating rate can maintain resilience [121]. - **投资策略**: In the first half of 2026, seize low - level long - position opportunities; in the second half, follow crude oil operations [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply and demand of the rubber market are both relatively dull. The change in production is still subtle, with the uncertainty lying in Thailand's output, which is initially expected to be relatively stable. The vehicle market policy in 2026 is weaker than that in 2025, but thanks to the enhanced competitiveness of China's automobile industry, the automobile export market is still expected to be good. The tire export market may see a slight increase, while the replacement market faces relatively large pressure. Overall, the demand driving points are weak, and the supply variable depends on Thailand. If Thailand's output is lower than expected, the market will fluctuate upwards; if it is better than expected, the market will fluctuate at a low level [3][114]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - In 2025, the rubber market had weak supply and demand. Starting from the tapping expectation in early March, due to good weather in the producing areas and high finished - product inventories of Chinese tire enterprises, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were low, putting pressure on the rubber market. Influenced by the US tariff policy and the China - Thailand zero - tariff negotiation, the rubber market experienced two sharp drops. The rubber 09 contract futures fell from the highest 18,355 yuan/ton on February 21st to the lowest 13,295 yuan/ton on June 4th. The long production cycle of rubber led to repeated verification of its inflection point. Although rainfall increased and planting optimization measures improved single - yield, the demand was weak, and the rubber price fluctuated at a low level around 15,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [8]. Chapter 2: Rubber Supply Situation - **Rubber Planting Total Area**: As of 2025, the ANRPC rubber planting total area was 124.23 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Since 2016, the new planting area has been significantly reduced, and the total area has changed very little. It is expected to still have a slight change in 2026 [13]. - **Rubber Tapping Area Growth Rate**: The theoretical tappable area will have a low growth rate in the future. The 2025 tapping area growth rate was 1%, and the ANRPC expected the global natural rubber production in 2025 to increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons. The expected growth rate of the tapping area in 2026 is between - 0.06% and - 0.08%. Considering the aging of rubber trees and weather effects, the production in 2026 is expected to be under pressure or even decline [12]. - **Main Producing Countries' Production Growth Rate**: In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons. In 2026, Indonesia and Malaysia have strong expectations of production reduction. The uncertainty of global production lies in Thailand's output (the expected reduction in southern Thailand is offset by the increase in central and northern Thailand) and the increment of Cote d'Ivoire. China's production is expected to increase slightly [3][12][114]. - **Thailand**: In 2025, the production increased slightly. The annual output is expected to reach 489 tons. In 2026, the total production may remain stable, with an expected narrow adjustment in the range of - 52,000 to + 80,000 tons [30][35]. - **Indonesia**: The production has been decreasing year by year. In 2025, the expected output was 2.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. In 2026, the production reduction expectation remains [36][40]. - **Vietnam**: The production growth potential may be hindered. In 2025, the output decreased slightly. In 2026, the production may be under pressure or even decline [41][45]. - **Cote d'Ivoire**: The production has been growing strongly. In 2025, the expected output was about 1.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8%. In 2026, the production is expected to be between 1.9 and 2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.5% - 11% [48][52]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In 2025, the exports of ANRPC member countries showed overall growth, internal differentiation, and explosive growth in exports to China. Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam all had significant increases in exports to China [56]. - **China's Market**: - **Production**: In 2025, the production was expected to reach 933,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In 2026, the production is expected to be about 992,800 tons, with a subsequent average annual growth rate of 4.5% [60][63]. - **Import**: In 2025, the import demand was strong. In 2026, the domestic import may maintain a good momentum, and Southeast Asia will still be the core import source [64][68]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure has decreased. Although there was a slight accumulation of inventory in November 2024, the overall inventory level is still lower than before [69]. Chapter 3: Rubber Consumption Situation - **Domestic Automobile Production and Sales**: In 2025, China's automobile market had a good growth trend. From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles were 31.331 million and 31.127 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4%. The new energy vehicle market developed rapidly, with production and sales reaching 19.907 million and 17.88 million respectively from January to November, a year - on - year increase of over 31%, and a market penetration rate of about 57.5%. In 2026, the policy will be adjusted, but the export and new energy sectors are expected to continue to grow [81][84][91]. - **Automobile Exports**: In 2025, China's automobile exports maintained a strong growth momentum. From January to November, the export volume was 7.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. New energy vehicles were the highlight, with an export volume of 2.315 million from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 100%. In 2026, the export of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a high speed [87][90]. - **Heavy Truck Domestic Sales and Exports**: In 2025, the heavy - truck industry had significant breakthroughs in both domestic sales and exports. The annual wholesale sales reached 1.143 million, a year - on - year increase of 26.7%, and the export volume was expected to reach 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. In 2026, the industry will continue to transform and upgrade [92][94]. - **Replacement Market**: In 2025, the freight volume and turnover growth rates were low, and the fixed - asset investment and new - house construction area decreased. The replacement market faced relatively large pressure [99][102]. - **Operating Rates of All - Steel and Semi - Steel Tires**: In 2025, the semi - steel tire operating rate was stable at around 70%, and the all - steel tire operating rate fluctuated at a low level and was weak at the end of the year. In 2026, the semi - steel tire operating rate will fluctuate around 70%, and the all - steel tire operating rate will have greater fluctuations, with the highest point in Q2 and a seasonal decline in Q4 [106][110]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **Supply Side**: The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2026 - 2030, and the aging of rubber trees in traditional producing countries is deepening. The production in 2026 is uncertain, mainly depending on Thailand's output, and Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to have production reductions [111]. - **Demand Side**: In 2026, the vehicle market policy is weaker, but the automobile export market is still expected to be good. The tire export market may have a slight increase, and the replacement market pressure is large [113]. - **Investment Strategy**: The supply and demand are both relatively dull. The market will fluctuate at a low level, and the supply variable depends on Thailand [114].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, domestic policies will focus on balancing "counter-cyclical" and "cross-cyclical" adjustments, with resources concentrated on expanding domestic demand and cultivating new productive forces, presenting a "fiscal-led, monetary-assisted" pattern [2][8][58] - The overall demand for steel is expected to remain basically flat, with manufacturing demand having resilience but a high-base slowdown in growth, construction demand continuing to decline but at a slower pace, and indirect exports performing better than direct exports with a high-base slowdown in growth [2][58] - The steel supply capacity cycle shows signs of peaking, but due to insufficient demand, "anti-involution" efforts need to be further strengthened. The steel product structure will continue to optimize, alleviating the contradiction of total overcapacity, and the comprehensive profits of steel mills will continue to improve. However, before the demand turns around, the production mode based on demand will be maintained to seek a weak balance [2][58] - In 2026, the steel supply and demand will still be relatively loose, with limited elasticity on the supply side under production control, continuous cost and inventory pressure, and steel prices are likely to continue to oscillate at the bottom. It is estimated that the main operating range of rebar in 2026 will be between 2,700 - 3,350 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coils will be between 2,850 - 3,500 yuan/ton [2][58] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Steel Trends in 2025 - The steel price trend in 2025 was volatile, with the overall price center of gravity moving downward. From January to June, domestic demand was weak, the overseas trade environment deteriorated, and steel prices and furnace materials declined together. From June to July, steel prices gradually stabilized and rebounded rapidly under multiple factors. From August to October, the "high price, low demand" contradiction was prominent, and steel prices gradually declined. From October to the present, steel prices showed an oscillating and weak trend [5][6] Chapter 2: Outlook for the Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **2.1 The First Year of the 15th Five-Year Plan: Stabilize Growth and Expand Domestic Demand**: In 2026, economic policies will emphasize strategic focus and precise efforts, with policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and cultivating new productive forces. Monetary policy operations may be more cautious, balancing the relationship between reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and exchange rate stability [8] - **2.2 Policy Aspect: Fiscal Policy as the Mainstay and Monetary Policy as a Supplement**: Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive" with more precise focus, with a projected deficit rate of 4% and a deficit scale of 5.9 trillion yuan, and special bond quotas of 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan. Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" tone but be more cautious in operation, with at least one reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expected in 2026, and the focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and green fields [9][10] - **2.3 The Possibility of Spillover Risks in the Real Estate Market Has Significantly Decreased**: Policy priorities may have shifted, and the risk positioning of the real estate market may have changed from "key resolution" to "continuous prevention and control." Strong incremental policies are unlikely to be introduced, and the implementation of supportive policies will depend on the overall economic situation [17] - **2.4 "Anti-Involution" Policies May Enter the Implementation Stage**: It is expected that relevant policies will enter the implementation stage in 2026, but the public attention may decrease, and policies will have priorities and be implemented in different industries at different times [18] Chapter 3: Weak Domestic Demand, Strong Plates and Weak Long Products - **3.1 The Decline in the Real Estate Sector Narrowed but It Remained a Drag**: In 2025, real estate policies focused on risk prevention and market stabilization. From January to November, real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area decreased year-on-year. In 2026, the decline in major real estate indicators is expected to narrow, but steel demand in the real estate industry will continue to decline [22][23] - **3.2 Policies Will Continue to Provide Support, and Infrastructure Investment Is Expected to Recover**: In 2025, infrastructure investment focused on structural optimization and strategic security, but overall performance was lower than expected. In 2026, infrastructure will continue to play a supporting role, with an expected investment growth rate of about 5%, and steel demand will be basically the same as in 2025 [27][28] - **3.3 Stable Growth in the Manufacturing Industry Supports Steel Demand**: In 2025, the manufacturing industry showed better performance than the construction industry, with the production index rising above the boom-bust line. The automobile industry had high production and sales, and the mechanical industry was stable. In 2026, with the continuation of "two new" policies, the manufacturing industry will still have resilience, and steel demand is expected to increase by about 5% [30][34] - **3.4 Exports Will Remain at a High Level but the Growth Rate Is Expected to Slow Down**: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a new high, while imports continued to decline. In 2026, due to intensified trade frictions and the recovery of overseas supply, the export growth rate is expected to slow down, but overall exports will remain at a high level [39][40] Chapter 4: Continued Promotion of "Anti-Involution" and Continuous Optimization of the Supply Structure - **4.1 Loose Raw Material Supply with Expected Average Price Decline**: In 2026, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase slightly, and the price is expected to face downward pressure. The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slightly, and the price is expected to remain in an oscillating range [44][48] - **4.2 "Anti-Involution" Needs to Be Further Strengthened to Promote Industrial Structure Optimization**: The steel mill capacity investment cycle shows signs of peaking. In 2026, the net increase in blast furnace capacity is 191 tons, the net decrease in converter capacity is 131 tons, and the net increase in electric furnace capacity is 451 tons. "Anti-involution" policies need to be further strengthened to promote the healthy development of the industrial structure [52] - **4.3 Steel Mill Profits Have Improved but Will Remain in a Slight Profit State**: In 2025, the profitability of the steel industry was high in the first half and low in the second half, and it turned into a loss in the fourth quarter. In 2026, steel mills are expected to maintain a slight profit state, with demand under pressure and profit prospects not optimistic [55] Chapter 5: Outlook for the Steel Price Trend in 2026 - In 2026, steel supply and demand will remain relatively loose, with limited supply-side elasticity under production control, continuous cost and inventory pressure, and steel prices are likely to continue to oscillate at the bottom. It is estimated that the main operating range of rebar will be between 2,700 - 3,350 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coils will be between 2,850 - 3,500 yuan/ton [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the over - capacity of industrial silicon will not be fundamentally alleviated. High inventory will suppress prices, while the cost line will form a strong support. Supply - side policies are the biggest source of elasticity. The price range is expected to be 7500 - 9700 yuan/ton; under the scenario of strong policy stimulus, it will move up to 8500 - 10500 yuan/ton; under the scenario of unexpectedly weak demand, it will drop to 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton. The overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but as the supply side also enters a contraction cycle, the overall supply - demand structure will become more balanced [3][40]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Trend Review - In 2025, the industrial silicon futures and spot markets showed a trend of "deep decline in the first half, hitting the bottom in June, and low - level volatile rebound from July to December". The average price of the futures main contract for the whole year was about 8800 yuan/ton, and the average comprehensive price of the spot was about 9200 yuan/ton. The futures and spot markets showed a pattern of spot premium for a long time. The spot market had multiple structural characteristics [9]. - In the first half of the year (January - June), the price dropped from a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction emerged. The average price of the 553 mainstream spot in January was about 9800 yuan/ton, falling below 9000 yuan/ton in March and reaching the annual low of 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton at the end of June. The 441 dropped from 11690 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.26%. The futures main contract SI2508/SI2510 started at about 10800 yuan/ton, fell below 10,000 yuan in March, and reached the lowest point of about 7015 yuan/ton on June 4, with a decline of about 36% in the first half of the year. The trading volume and open interest gradually shrank. The core driving factors were the natural decline in the off - season of downstream industries after the Spring Festival, the gradual release of new production capacity in 2024, and the lack of substantial production - capacity control policies [9][10]. - In the second half of the year (July - December), the price rebounded after hitting the bottom + low - level oscillation. The 553 mainstream spot price rebounded in July, rose to 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton from September to October, and stabilized at 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton (East China oxygen - blowing) in December. The futures main contract SI2601/SI2605 rebounded with cost repair and the expectation of production reduction in Southwest China from July, rose to 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton from September to October, and fell back to 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton in December. The trading volume and open interest increased. The core driving factors were the reduction in supply due to the rise in electricity prices during the dry season in Southwest China and the maintenance of some enterprises in Xinjiang, and the limited rebound amplitude due to high inventory [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Supply - Demand Situation of Industrial Silicon in 2025/26 2.1 Supply Side: The Core Contradiction is Excess Supply, and Policy Regulation is the Catalyst - In November 2025, China's industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. From January to November, the cumulative output reached 3.868 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. In the early stage of the year, the output was low. After April, Xinjiang made significant production cuts. In June, the output of most provinces decreased. After August, the supply in the main production areas increased. In the fourth quarter, the output in Xinjiang remained high, while that in Southwest China decreased slightly. In November, the output decreased to around 400,000 tons [14]. - From January to November 2025, Xinjiang's cumulative output was 1.9248 million tons, accounting for 52.03%. Inner Mongolia's output was 438,900 tons, accounting for 11.86%. Gansu's output was 329,700 tons, accounting for 8.91%. Yunnan's output was 300,800 tons, accounting for 8.13%. Sichuan's output was 323,500 tons, accounting for 8.74%. With the implementation of anti - involution policies, the release of new production capacity in the future will be extremely limited [15]. 2.2 Demand Side: The Establishment of a New Polysilicon Platform Company Marks the Entry of the Photovoltaic Industry's Anti - Involution Governance into a Critical Stage - From January to November 2024, China's polysilicon cumulative output was 1.206 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27.3%. In the first half of the year, the polysilicon price was low. After June, enterprises were determined to stabilize prices. By mid - December, the price of P - type dense materials soared to 49 - 51 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type silicon materials rose to 49.6 - 55 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%. On December 12, 2025, the "polysilicon production - capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established, which has great strategic value for rectifying the industry's "involution" [29][31]. 2.2.1 Organic Silicon Production Cuts to Support Prices Yielded Results, and the Supply - Demand Will Enter a Sustainable New Ecosystem - From January to November 2025, China's organic silicon DMC cumulative output was 2.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. In the first half of the year, the organic silicon industry faced over - capacity and weak terminal consumption. In the third quarter, the price rebounded slightly. In the fourth quarter, after the anti - involution industry meeting, enterprises reached a consensus on a 30% production cut and jointly supported prices. The DMC spot price rose from 11050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the fourth quarter to 13600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in 2026, the output will increase limitedly, and the supply - demand will enter a sustainable new ecosystem [33]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Industrial Silicon Market in 2026 - In terms of supply, in 2026, the national industrial silicon planned new production capacity will be only 700,000 tons, and the production capacity will further shrink. In terms of demand, the overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but the overall supply - demand structure will become more balanced [3][40]. - The over - capacity will not be fundamentally alleviated, high inventory will suppress prices, the cost line will form a strong support, and supply - side policies are the biggest source of elasticity. The price range is 7500 - 9700 yuan/ton; under the scenario of strong policy stimulus, it will move up to 8500 - 10500 yuan/ton; under the scenario of unexpectedly weak demand, it will drop to 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton. The price will be strong during the dry season and Spring Festival stocking, pressured during the wet season when supply increases and polysilicon demand slows down, and will stabilize and rebound with inventory reduction and cost support [3][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report In 2026, it is difficult to change the low - profit situation of methanol. The methanol production is expected to remain stable. With the overall production recovery in Iran and new capacity launch, the import pressure remains high, and the supply is expected to be abundant. There are new capacity launches in both downstream MTO and traditional demand, but the competitiveness of the MTO industry is limited and the overall profit of traditional demand is low. The overall downstream operation is expected to be stable but weak. The supply - demand contradiction of methanol is not significant. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of periodic supply - demand mismatches. It is expected that the methanol futures price will fluctuate in the range of 1900 - 2500 yuan/ton [3][4][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review In 2025, the methanol futures price operation can be divided into four stages. From January to May, it oscillated downward below 2700 yuan/ton, with a low of around 2200 yuan/ton. From June to July, it rebounded strongly, with a high of around 2550 yuan/ton. From August to October, it oscillated downward, with a low of around 2200 yuan/ton. From November to December, the domestic methanol market oscillated [9][10][11]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Methanol Supply - Side Factors 2.1 Total Capacity Remains Stable, with Little New Pressure In 2025, the total national methanol production capacity was about 10804.5 tons/year, basically stable compared with 2024. In 2026, the planned methanol production capacity to be put into operation is 787.7 tons/year, and the new devices have little impact on market supply pressure [13]. 2.2 Methanol Operation at a High - Level Oscillation In 2025, the average methanol operation load was estimated to be around 87%, and the annual domestic production increased by about 11% year - on - year. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol devices was 89.81%, at a high level within the year [17]. 2.3 Poor Profits of Coal - to - Methanol Devices In 2025, the profits of coke - oven gas - to - methanol and coal - to - methanol were positive for most of the time, while those of natural - gas - to - methanol were negative for most of the time. Overall, the profits of methanol devices were poor [19]. 2.4 Methanol Imports - Annual Imports Show a Pattern of Low at First and High Later In 2025, methanol imports showed a pattern of low at first and high later. In 2026, methanol imports are expected to increase, with domestic demand expansion as the fundamental driver, overseas supply abundance and cost advantages as the direct support [22][23]. 2.5 Methanol Port Inventories Declined in the First Half of the Year and Accumulated to a High Level in the Second Half As of December 10, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.5 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 35.28 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.87 tons [25]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Methanol Demand - Side Factors In 2025, the overall operation of methanol downstream was relatively stable, with demand increments released in areas such as glacial acetic acid, MTBE, chlorides, and BDO. In 2025 - 2026, attention should be paid to the progress of three new projects [28]. 3.1 Limited Competitiveness of the Downstream MTO Industry, with Operation Expected to be Stable but Weak In 2025, the operation of methanol - to - olefins in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with a central value of about 70%. The overall downstream operation was at a relatively low level in the past five years [29]. 3.2 Slightly Negative Profits of Downstream Acetic Acid, Difficult to Maintain High - Level Operation in the Long Term In 2025, the acetic acid industry added about 590 tons/year of production capacity, with a total production capacity reaching 1585 tons/year and a production of about 1200 tons/year. In 2026, there are still 280 tons of production capacity to be put into operation, and the supply - demand contradiction may continue [34]. 3.3 Analysis of Methane Chloride - Stable Operation but Under Profit Pressure In 2025, methane chloride showed characteristics of loose supply - demand, low prices, and profit pressure. In 2026, there are still 76 tons of new production capacity to be put into operation, and the supply - demand contradiction may continue [36]. 3.4 Low - Level Profits of Formaldehyde, Stable Operation In 2025, the Chinese formaldehyde industry entered a critical period of high - quality development. In 2026, the formaldehyde production capacity will increase to about 3100 tons, and the demand is expected to increase by 2% year - on - year [39]. Chapter 4: Analysis of Other Price - Influencing Factors 4.1 Slightly Loose Supply - Demand of Coal Throughout the Year at the Cost End In 2025, the supply - demand of coal was loose at first and then tight, with prices oscillating in a V - shape. In 2026, coal supply - demand is expected to be "loose in the off - season and tight in the peak season", with an overall slightly loose balance [44][45]. 4.2 Crude Oil Prices Expected to be Under Pressure In 2025, the global crude oil supply - demand pattern was imbalanced, with supply increasing and demand weakening. In 2026, the crude oil supply surplus is about 384 barrels/day [48][50]. 4.3 China's Economy is Expected to Recover Slowly, with Policies Aimed at Stabilizing the Economy The central economic work conference emphasized promoting economic development and achieving a good start in the 14th Five - Year Plan [54]. Chapter 5: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies In 2026, the low - profit situation of methanol is difficult to change. The supply is expected to be abundant, the downstream operation is expected to be stable but weak, and the methanol futures price is expected to oscillate in the range of 1900 - 2500 yuan/ton [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, new soda ash production capacity will still be put into operation, with overall sufficient supply. The downstream float glass industry still faces the pressure of declining real - estate demand and is expected to maintain low profits. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate. The problem of excessive supply - demand gap in the downstream photovoltaic glass industry still exists, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts in the future. The loose supply situation of soda ash in 2025 needs to be improved, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [3][52] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Soda Ash Price Fluctuated Downward Throughout the Year - In 2025, the domestic soda ash market price fluctuated downward. From January to February, the domestic soda ash futures price rebounded with a high of 1600. From March to June, it fluctuated downward to a low of 1150. In July, it rebounded with a high of 1500. From August onwards, it showed a downward trend [8] Chapter 2: Supply - Side Analysis - **New Capacity Investment Expectations**: In the first half of 2025, the domestic soda ash capacity increased by 230 tons, and the total capacity reached 4110 tons by the end of June. In 2026, there will be a concentrated production - launch wave, with new capacity exceeding 5.5 million tons and the total capacity approaching 47 million tons. Key projects include the full - load operation of the 2.8 million - ton/year natural soda ash of Yuanxing Energy's Alxa Phase II, the gradual output release of Yuntu Holdings' 700,000 - ton soda ash project, the likely completion and operation of Jinshan's 2 - million - ton project, and the planned construction and operation of Hengyang Hengyi Alkali Factory's 1 - million - ton project [11][12] - **High - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Operation**: In 2025, the soda ash operation generally maintained an 80% - 90% range. In the first half of the year, there were concentrated enterprise overhauls in March and May, resulting in a significant increase in losses. In the second half of the year, it continued to fluctuate. In November, supply decreased due to equipment fluctuations, and in December, supply increased as overhauls were restored [16] - **Low - Level Fluctuation of Soda Ash Profits**: In 2025, soda ash production profits fluctuated around the break - even point, significantly lower than the previous year. As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the joint - alkali method was - 49 yuan/ton, up 50.25% month - on - month; the theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 67.60 yuan/ton, up 1.31% month - on - month [19] - **Significant Year - on - Year Increase in Soda Ash Exports**: In 2025, soda ash imports decreased significantly year - on - year, while exports increased significantly, but export prices declined. In January - June, imports were about 18,500 tons, and exports were about 1.0156 million tons, up 126.54% year - on - year. In October, imports were 30 tons, and exports were 214,500 tons, up 14.14% month - on - month and 32.62% year - on - year [21][22] - **High - Level Increase in Soda Ash Manufacturers' Inventory**: In 2025, the enterprise inventory fluctuated at a high level. As of December 11, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4943 million tons, down 2.88% week - on - week. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory first rose and then declined [23] Chapter 3: Demand - Side Analysis - **Analysis of Downstream Float Glass Demand** - **Impact of Profits on Float Glass Capacity Utilization**: From January to November 2025, the float glass output was 51.48 million tons, down about 5.2% year - on - year. The overall daily melting volume was stable, with an average industry start - up rate of about 74.32% and a capacity utilization rate of 77.48%. The real - estate demand for float glass is under pressure, and the industry is in the process of capacity clearance [30] - **Float Glass Profits Expected to Remain Low**: In 2025, float glass maintained relatively stable low profits from January to October and declined after October. As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 181.40 yuan/ton, up 15.02 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using coal - gas was - 7.63 yuan/ton, down 14.14 yuan/ton month - on - month; that using petroleum coke was - 0.07 yuan/ton, down 35.71 yuan/ton month - on - month [32] - **Expected Decline in Float Glass Demand and Accelerated Supply Contraction**: In 2025, the float glass price fluctuated weakly. The real - estate sector accounts for 65% of float glass demand, and the real - estate construction area has been declining. In 2026, the real - estate completion area is expected to decline further. The Chinese automobile production is expected to grow moderately in 2026. Driven by the anti - involution policy, the elimination of backward capacity in the float glass industry is expected to accelerate in 2026 [35][37][38] - **Analysis of Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Demand**: The photovoltaic glass price showed a downward trend from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, due to policy - driven terminal power station rush - installation in the second quarter, the price rose, but after that, there was a serious supply - demand mismatch, and the price dropped. In the third quarter, the price returned above the cost line under the "anti - involution" action. By the end of November, the price approached the cash cost line of some enterprises. In the current macro - economic environment, there is limited space for demand stimulation, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts [40][41] Chapter 4: Analysis of Other Influencing Factors - **Real - Estate and Building Materials Industry Policies**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real - estate market and promoting the construction of a new real - estate development model. The "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" strictly regulates cement and glass production capacity and promotes the elimination of backward capacity [43][44] - **The Domestic Economy is Expected to Continue to Recover, and Policies are Oriented towards Stabilizing the Economy**: The Central Economic Work Conference stressed implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting high - quality economic development [47] Chapter 5: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase in 2026, and enterprises may increase exports to relieve inventory pressure. The downstream float glass industry faces pressure from declining real - estate demand, and the elimination of backward capacity is expected to accelerate. The photovoltaic glass industry has a large supply - demand gap, and there is a possibility of more - than - expected production cuts. The soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 1400 level [51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, copper prices are expected to remain at a high level, and the center of gravity may move upward further. The upward momentum mainly comes from the resonance of the macro - loose liquidity and the supply - side gap [68]. - On the macro - front, the Fed is expected to continue the interest - rate cut cycle, providing support for copper prices from the financial attribute level. On the supply - side, the supply growth of refined copper, especially in China, will be significantly suppressed. On the demand - side, the structural transformation is deepening, but the actual growth intensity of emerging demand in 2026 needs to be tested [68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, copper prices fluctuated strongly, with the price center rising significantly. The cumulative increase of both domestic and foreign markets exceeded 30% during the year, hitting new highs at the end of the year. The Shanghai copper price exceeded 98,000 yuan/ton, and the London copper price exceeded $12,000/ton [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Global Economy - In 2025, the global economy showed strong resilience, with the actual growth rate basically in line with the initial forecast of 2.7%. The main disturbances were the US tariff policy, potential risks of AI expansion, and increasing fiscal pressure. In 2026, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow to 3.1%, and the inflation level will slow to 3.7%. The average growth of world trade volume from 2025 - 2026 will be 2.9%, still far lower than the 3.5% in 2024 [11]. 2.2 US Economy - In 2025, the US economic growth slowed down, with the annual growth rate dropping by 0.8 percentage points. The macro - economic situation was complex, with stubborn inflation, a cooling job market, and cautious policy - making. The US dollar index was expected to remain weak in 2026. In 2025, US inflation rebounded, and the core inflation rate was always above 2%. The job market changed from stable to weak, mainly due to immigration policies, government layoffs, and AI substitution [14]. - In 2026, AI - related investment and consumption will be the core driving forces for economic growth, but there are certain structural risks [15]. 2.3 Chinese Economy - In 2025, China's macro - policy became more proactive. The economy grew by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters, but there was deflation pressure, and the overall consumer willingness and ability needed to be enhanced. In 2026, China will continue its proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. Sino - US relations may enter a relatively stable period, and China's demand will shift to domestic consumption [17][18]. 3. Supply Analysis 3.1 Tightening Copper Ore Supply - In 2025, global copper ore supply was tight. The growth of copper ore output stagnated, and the capacity utilization rate dropped below 80%. The ICSG lowered the 2025 copper ore production growth rate from 2.3% to 1.4%, and it is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026. The supply is affected by insufficient capital investment, declining ore grades, and frequent accidents. In 2026, copper ore supply will depend on existing projects, and any supply - demand imbalance will be reflected in prices [20][24]. 3.2 Transmission of Supply Pressure from Ore to Smelting - The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop significantly from 3.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026. The shortage of copper concentrate has passed on cost pressure to the smelting industry. In 2025, the TC of copper concentrate dropped to below zero, and the long - term processing fee for 2026 was locked at zero. Chinese smelters plan to cut production by at least 10% in 2026, which will deepen the supply shortage [29][30]. 3.3 Substitution Effect of Scrap Copper - Scrap copper has a certain substitution effect on copper concentrate, but it cannot completely replace primary copper due to supply, technology, and capacity limitations. The 770th document in 2025 increased the cost of scrap - copper recycling, suppressing market enthusiasm. In 2026, it is difficult for scrap copper to expand [34][36]. 4. Demand Analysis - China is the largest consumer of refined copper, accounting for nearly 60% globally. The ICSG expects the global refined copper usage to grow by 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, with China's growth rate slowing down to 1% in 2026 [42]. 4.1 Power Industry - Copper demand in the power industry is driven by grid modernization, energy transformation, and new - energy power generation. In 2025, grid investment maintained positive growth, and new - energy power generation had a high growth rate. In 2026, grid investment is expected to remain high, and new - energy power generation will continue to support copper demand. The new - type energy - storage system also has great growth potential [45][46][47]. 4.2 Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the real estate industry's adjustment suppressed copper demand. In 2026, the industry's growth logic is shifting, but it is difficult to make up for the demand gap in the short term [49][50]. 4.3 Home Appliance Industry - In 2025, the home appliance industry's demand showed a trend of low - then - high. Domestic demand was stimulated by policies in the first half of the year but weakened later. Exports were under pressure due to US tariffs and overseas demand contraction. In 2026, domestic sales may not grow without new policies, while overseas production capacity is expected to be released [53][54]. 4.4 Automotive Industry - In 2025, China's automobile sales, especially new - energy vehicle sales, increased significantly. Domestic sales were stimulated by the trade - in policy, and exports showed a diversified pattern. In 2026, the automobile market growth will face pressure, with a predicted growth rate of about 2%, and new - energy vehicles will maintain strong momentum [56][60]. 4.5 New Direction - AI Data Centers - In 2025, AI data centers became a key variable in reshaping copper demand. The copper consumption in global data centers is expected to increase from about 500,000 tons in 2025 to 740,000 tons in 2026, with a compound high - growth rate of about 40% in the coming years. However, the demand intensity needs to be verified [61][62]. 5. Inventory Analysis - In 2025, global copper inventory shifted from non - US to US regions due to the expected US tariff policy. COMEX copper inventory increased by over 300%, while LME inventory decreased by 42%. In 2026, the implementation time of the US tariff policy will be a key factor affecting inventory flow and copper prices [66]. 6. Outlook for 2026 - Copper prices are expected to operate at a high level, and the center of gravity may move upward. The upward momentum comes from macro - liquidity and supply - side gaps. However, risks include unexpected policy changes and lower - than - expected downstream consumption growth [68][69].

宁证期货投资咨询中心 Z0012851 F3008987 宽幅震荡，大周期不变 摘 要： 2025 年全球经济在承压状态下缓慢复苏，全球经济新的增长点和拉动力量 没有显著出现，百年未有之大变局加速演化，美元信用担忧加剧，以上各种因素 叠加使得黄金走出历史性的大涨行情，而人工智能对贵金属的需求预期，供需紧 平衡的结构同样使得白银走出了历史上最为剧烈的补涨行情。展望 2026 年，全 球经济或依然处于一个缓慢复苏的状态，虽然美国中期选举或使得国际地缘冲突 暂时有所减弱，但是百年未有之大变局持续演化的趋势不会改变，货币多元化和 美元信用的长期走弱的趋势不会改变，这些因素依然对贵金属长期上涨趋势存在 支撑，但经历了 2025 年的大涨行情之后，或存在阶段性的震荡回调、再蓄势的 过程，2026 年贵金属应重点把握结构性的机会。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 曹宝琴 投资咨询证号： 展望 2026 年，市场普遍预期，美国中期选举或使得特朗普政府的主要矛盾 指向美国内部两党的席位之争，目前市场预期为共和党或依然保持对参议院的控 制权，但是有可能失去众议院的控制权，如果这样的预期兑现，国际地缘或保持 ...

宁证期货投资咨询中心 投资咨询业务资格： Z0012851 F3008987 2026 宏观年度报告 Buge 经济复苏缓慢，美国中期选举年 摘 要： 2025 特朗普的第二任期内，再次发动针对全球的关税大战，并以中美元首釜 山会晤告一段落。上半年全球经济复苏较为强劲，下半年关税效应凸显，经济有 所承压，整体来看 2025 年全球经济依然具有较大韧性，展望 2026 年，全球经济 或依然处于缓慢复苏的阶段，压力与挑战并存，但是主要经济体的发展阶段和央 行策略或有所分化。 证监许可【2011】1775 号 2025 年，美国经历了历史上最长政府停摆，很多经济数据无法及时追踪，从 目前来看，虽然美国通胀有持续走高的压力，就业数据也有所恶化，但整体来看 美国经济依然具有较大韧性，展望 2026 年，在中期选举及美联储高层更换的背 景下，降息周期持续，财政刺激不会缺席，美国经济依然不悲观。欧盟 2025 年 经济复苏整体不及预期，俄乌冲突没有根本性解决，拖累了欧盟的复苏动力和进 程，2026 年如果俄乌冲突彻底画上句号，那么全球经济增长动能或有所增加，欧 元区处于一个经济缓慢复苏，货币政策较为稳定的局面。日本由于通胀 ...