Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production - increasing stance, and the global economy and demand are not good. With the new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine attracting market attention and the geopolitical tension risk easing, international oil prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, but the rise of the US stock market has pushed international oil prices to end higher after a decline [1]. - **Silver**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, risk appetite is boosted, and the bullish attribute of precious metals increases. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the divergence between gold and silver should be noted [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand situation of iron ore is improving marginally, and the demand resilience supports the rebound of ore prices. However, considering the drag of off - season steel, ore prices are expected to have room for correction. It is recommended to combine range trading and selling at high prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: In the off - season, steel production may decline seasonally. Although the production of manganese silicon has been decreasing recently, the overall supply contraction is limited due to the upcoming new production capacity. The market inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [4]. - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently, inventory is still decreasing, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate upwards, but the weak off - season demand may limit the upward space [5]. - **Rubber**: The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and suspension season, and the supply shortage expectation is rising. However, the arrival of overseas ships is expected to increase, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The clearance process of Australian rapeseed arrivals has become the core focus of the market. The spot market faces the double situation of slow trading rhythm and strong inventory reduction pressure. Short - term rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7]. - **Live Pigs**: The current market supply pressure persists. Although the pickling demand in some regions supports pig prices to a certain extent, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic palm oil has continued to arrive in large quantities, leading to inventory accumulation, which is bearish for palm oil. However, the strong willingness of traders and oil mills to support prices provides some support. The near - month contract is expected to run weakly in the short term [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The winning bid rate of the Treasury cash is lower than the previous period, indicating a significant decline in inter - bank capital costs and a continuous loosening of the capital market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the medium term [10]. - **Gold**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are increasing. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [10]. - **PX**: Due to good blending oil benefits and other factors, PXN continues to expand, which strongly supports PX. PX is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the risk of a sharp drop in crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is decreasing. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2060 level [11][12]. - **Glass**: The profit of float glass enterprises is stable at a low level, production is expected to be stable, and inventory is higher than in previous years. The glass 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with pressure at the 1035 level [12]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase. The cost provides strong support. The PVC 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with pressure at the 4540 level [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Energy and Chemicals - **Oil**: As of November 21, the number of active drilling rigs in the US reached 419, the highest since October. The US has proposed a 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - **PX**: This week's PX output was 74.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The domestic PX average weekly capacity utilization rate was 89.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [11]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2053 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - **Rubber**: As of November 23, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.60% [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic areas was 667,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,900 tons, an increase of 2.13% [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Fed officials' statements have increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut, boosting the bullish sentiment of silver [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From November 17 to 23, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 569,600 tons [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products this week was 121,407 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%. The weekly supply decreased by 1.33% to 196,910 tons [4]. - **Rebar**: On November 24, the domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. - **Gold**: The US and Ukraine have completed a 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be determined [10]. - **PVC**: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4440 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 20 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [13]. - **Glass**: The average price of national float glass is 1094 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The float glass start - up rate is 74.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points [12]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: As of November 21, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [7]. - **Live Pigs**: On November 24, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from last Friday [9]. - **Eggs**: On November 24, the price of eggs was 7.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.2% from last Friday [9]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: On November 24, the winning bid rate of the 2025 central Treasury cash management commercial bank time deposit (the eleventh issue) was 1.73%, lower than the previous 1.76% [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly, gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and the price of rebar is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [1][3]. - Coking coal is expected to oscillate, while the LH2601 contract of live pigs is under downward pressure and will adjust weakly [4]. - Palm oil is running weakly after breaking through the support level, and the price of soybean meal's 01 contract will decline and oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - The bond market will oscillate slightly more in the medium - term, and silver is bearish in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term [7]. - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and the 01 contract of soda ash will run weakly [8][9]. - The L2601 contract of plastic will run weakly in the short - term, and the price of crude oil is weakly running in stages [10][11]. - The asphalt market is weak, and the price of synthetic rubber will oscillate weakly [11][12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 15,054.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75.06 tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.2992 million tons, an increase of 29,700 tons; the number of ships at ports is 120, an increase of 4. Shipping is increasing, and the arrival volume is fluctuating. The molten iron output is expected to decline seasonally, but there is short - term support, and the restocking demand has not been released. The short - term price will oscillate strongly [1]. Gold - Multiple Fed officials signaled interest rate cuts, but due to the lack of employment data, the decision to cut rates is still highly uncertain. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Rebar - As of the week of November 20, rebar production was 2.0796 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,600 tons or 3.98%; factory inventory was 1.5332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,000 tons or 4.43%; social inventory was 4.0002 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 157,300 tons or 3.78%; apparent demand was 2.3079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 144,200 tons or 6.66%. The demand has recovered, the fundamentals have improved, but the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. The price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. Coking Coal - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal is 1.934 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons; the daily average output of clean coal is 758,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. Live Pigs - As of November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.6 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg; the weekly slaughter start - up rate is 34.06%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 164.92 yuan per head, a decrease of 43.13 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 81.351 yuan per head, a decrease of 17.42 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 210 yuan per head, an increase of 0.95 yuan per head. The market supply is large, and the LH2601 contract is under downward pressure [4]. Palm Oil - From November 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and the output increased by 10.32% month - on - month. The demand for biodiesel is expected to weaken significantly, and palm oil is running weakly [5]. Soybean Meal - As of November 21, the physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises is 7.98 days, a decrease of 0.25 days from the previous period and the same as the same period last year. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the demand is stable, and the price of the 01 contract will decline and oscillate weakly [5]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The intensive issuance of treasury bonds is an important manifestation of the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies, which may lead to the early implementation of fiscal easing policies next year. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly more in the medium - term [7]. Silver - The US economic data shows certain resilience, which boosts risk appetite. There are differences in the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December, but the expectation still exists. Silver is bearish in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price is stable. The weekly utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%. The downstream utilization rate is 74.77%, a weekly increase of 0.42%. The port inventory has decreased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash nationwide is 1,260 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. The weekly output is 739,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The total inventory of manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a weekly increase of - 0.4%. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly [9]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,939 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly output is 304,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19%. The production enterprise inventory is 197,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 4.4%. The L2601 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term [10]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, the global economy and demand are poor, and the new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have attracted market attention. The price of crude oil is weakly running in stages [11]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises is 24.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2%. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises is 370,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The market is weak, and it is advisable to sell short at high prices [11]. Synthetic Rubber - The output of butadiene in October is 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%, and the output from January to October is 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The import in October is 35,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.00%. The supply pressure on the raw material side is increasing, and the demand lacks substantial benefits. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation, with downward driving forces and weakening short - term geopolitical influence, so it should be treated as oscillating weakly [1]. - The Fed's October FOMC meeting minutes increase the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut, and precious metals are in a state of oscillation. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - The national pig price adjusted strongly, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, lacking continuous upward momentum. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [3]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil in November has declined significantly, weakening the fundamentals and suppressing the spot price. However, the departure of a large number of short positions in the main contract of palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has supported the futures price, and low - buying operations are recommended [3]. - The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill's operating rate is slowly recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory restricts the upward space of the spot price, and the 01 contract price is expected to decline and oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. - The downstream polyester demand in November is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply side has many maintenance plans, with improved supply - demand conditions. However, the crude oil price is unstable, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - The raw material price of rubber is high, but the terminal demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [7]. - The good data of the US real estate market increase risk appetite and are beneficial to silver. The market still maintains the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term [7]. - The domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the downstream demand is limited, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - The money market is marginally tight, which is negative for short - term bonds. The economy is under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the central bank's operations are beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [9]. - The supply and demand of float glass are loose, the inventory of sample enterprises is higher than in previous years, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Crude Oil - The overall supply of the crude oil market is in an oversupply situation, with downward driving forces and weakening short - term geopolitical influence, so it should be treated as oscillating weakly [1]. Gold - The Fed's October FOMC meeting minutes increase the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut, and precious metals are in a state of oscillation. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. Pig - On November 20, the national average pork price was 17.94 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous day. The price has been low, and the farming side's sentiment to support the price has emerged, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [3]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased significantly. The fundamental weakness suppresses the spot price, but the departure of a large number of short positions in the main contract of palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has supported the futures price. Low - buying operations are recommended [3]. Soybean Meal - As of November 20, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3048 yuan/ton. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill's operating rate is slowly recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The increase in inventory restricts the upward space of the spot price, and the 01 contract price is expected to decline and oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. PTA - PTA social inventory decreased by 3.92 million tons to 324.88 million tons. The downstream polyester demand in November is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply side has many maintenance plans, with improved supply - demand conditions. However, the crude oil price is unstable, so it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Rubber - The raw material price of rubber is high, but the terminal demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises has decreased [5]. Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [7]. Silver - The good data of the US real estate market increase risk appetite and are beneficial to silver. The market still maintains the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [7]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 4420 yuan/ton. The domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the downstream demand is limited, and the social inventory is expected to rise. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - The money market is marginally tight, which is negative for short - term bonds. The economy is under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the central bank's operations are beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. Glass - The national average price of float glass decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1106 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of float glass are loose, the inventory of sample enterprises is higher than in previous years, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Silver is under short - term pressure but remains bullish in the medium term due to the difficulty of the Fed's December decision caused by the lack of employment data and the downward pressure on the US economy [1]. - Natural rubber shows a co - existence of raw material support and demand suppression, with a large price difference between natural and synthetic rubber, resulting in a transitional period of natural rubber price fluctuations [2]. - The price of live pigs is stable with a slight upward trend, but the supply - side pressure is still large, and the LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure [4]. - The price of soybean meal is limited in its upward space due to sufficient supply, slow recovery of oil mill operating rates, and relatively stable demand, and the 01 contract is in a short - term weakening and fluctuating state [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the bottom in the short term. Although affected by the decline of rapeseed oil futures, the departure of a large number of short - positions in the main contract provides support, and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Crude oil has a downward driving force under the situation of oversupply, and short - term geopolitical influence is weakened, so it should be treated with a weakening and fluctuating view [7]. - PTA has support in supply and demand, but with the loosening of crude oil prices, it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices and consider appropriate profit - taking [9]. - Short - term treasury bonds are slightly bullish in the medium term, with increased trading difficulty due to factors such as loose liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading [9]. - Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term due to the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate cut [10]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for further stabilization [10]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [11]. - Soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [12]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Silver - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report, and the Fed's December decision is difficult. The downward pressure on the US economy suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver, but the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December still exists, which exerts pressure on precious metals [1]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw rubber prices are high due to weather factors. In China, natural rubber social inventory shows different trends in light and dark rubber, with a slow seasonal inventory build - up in Qingdao. Terminal demand is insufficient, and the price difference between natural and synthetic rubber is large [2]. Live Pigs - On November 19, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased slightly. The pig price is stable with a slight upward trend, but the supply - side pressure is still large, and the LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure [4]. Soybean Meal - As of November 19, domestic soybean meal spot prices declined in different regions, and the trading volume increased. Sufficient imported soybean supply, slow recovery of oil mill operating rates, and relatively stable demand limit the upward space of soybean meal prices [5]. Palm Oil - On November 19, a Malaysian palm oil producer aimed to maximize plantation output. The US biodiesel plan boosts the vegetable oil market, but the decline of rapeseed oil futures drags down palm oil. The departure of short - positions in the main contract provides support [6]. Crude Oil - As of November 14, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily production decreased slightly. Market speculation around Russia led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and the overall supply is in an oversupply situation [7]. PTA - The polyester market has low inventory, and downstream demand is expected to remain high in November. PTA supply has many maintenance plans in November, and the supply - demand situation has improved, but crude oil price fluctuations need attention [9]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating loose capital. The economy is under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are favorable for the bond market, but trading is more difficult [9]. Gold - The Fed's October FOMC meeting minutes show deep differences on interest - rate cuts, increasing the uncertainty of a December rate cut, and gold is under pressure [10]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased. The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory decreased this week. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China decreased. Supply is sufficient, production enterprise inventory increased, and downstream factory operating rates decreased slightly. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash decreased. Weekly production decreased, and factory inventory decreased slightly. The operating rate of float glass decreased slightly, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to run weakly [11][12].

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the overall industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The Fed's internal turmoil is strong, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear, causing precious metals to fluctuate. Gold is under pressure and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The crude oil market is generally in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical factors bring uncertainties, so it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. - The short - end bond market is affected by a slightly tight capital supply, but the overall bond market is affected by multiple factors, and its operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. - Silver is under short - term pressure due to the US economic environment, but is still bullish in the medium term [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound [4]. - Rapeseed meal has a weak supply - demand pattern and is unlikely to have a trending upward market [5]. - Palm oil has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Glass is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and its price has short - term support [10]. - Natural rubber has a situation where raw material support and demand suppression coexist, and it will oscillate in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed internal disputes over a December rate cut are large, and gold is under pressure, with a medium - term high - level oscillation expected. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. - **Silver**: US employment pressure is high, and economic downward pressure suppresses the sentiment of going long on silver. The Fed's December rate - cut situation is uncertain, and silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US oil inventories have increased, and refinery profits have risen. Geopolitical factors such as attacks on Russian refineries and US sanctions have increased market uncertainty. The overall supply surplus situation drives the price down, and it should be treated with an oscillatory view [1]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Money market interest rates have mostly risen, indicating a slightly tight capital supply, which is negative for short - end bonds. However, the economic pressure in the fourth quarter and the central bank's operations are positive for the bond market. The bond market is difficult to operate, with a slightly bullish medium - term trend [3]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract is expected to be weak after a brief rebound. Farmers are advised to hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported rapeseed meal is high, and domestic aquatic product demand is weak. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [5]. - **Palm Oil**: China's October palm oil imports decreased year - on - year. November supply has increased significantly, but Indian demand expectations have increased. It has strong support at the lower level in the short term, and low - long operations are recommended [5]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The production and port inventory of methanol are at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Glass**: The average price of float glass has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the downstream orders are weak. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - **PVC**: The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the profit is poor, the domestic demand is stable, and the social inventory is expected to increase. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **PTA**: In November, the supply of PTA has decreased due to maintenance, and the downstream polyester demand is expected to remain high. The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has short - term support [10]. Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: Thai raw material prices have changed, and China's rubber tire production and export data show a mixed situation. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The coking profit has declined again due to rising costs, and the overall supply has continued to decline. The supply - demand structure of coke is healthy, but there is no expectation of price increase in the future, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - There is a large divergence within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The outlook for interest rate cuts is unclear, and precious metals are in a volatile state. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The supply - demand pressure of steel has been relieved, and the cost remains high. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate strongly, but the upside is restricted by the off - season demand, and in the medium term, they may fluctuate around the cost [4]. - The cost of ferrosilicon has increased, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [5]. - The tightness of the money market is negative for the short - term bond market, while central bank operations are positive. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [5]. - There may be pressure on the US employment market, and the decision of the Fed lacks data support. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term [6]. - The supply of live pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [6]. - The price increase space of palm oil is limited due to over - production and weak demand. The domestic inventory has increased significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7][8]. - Domestic soybeans show a regional differentiation trend. In the short term, the price of soybean No.1 may oscillate strongly at a high level [8]. - The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is affected, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. - The domestic soda ash market is firm, the downstream demand is stable, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been relieved, but there is still new production capacity pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and the terminal weaving starts to decline. The ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - The geopolitical issue in the crude oil market has eased, and the price has declined slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [12]. - The supply - demand of PTA has improved, and the processing fee has been repaired. The PX blending demand and the relatively good supply - demand structure support the PTA price in the short term [13]. - The raw material price of natural rubber may remain high, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation state. The price is expected to transition weakly [14]. Summary by Variety Coke - The average national ton - coke profit is - 34 yuan/ton. The supply has declined due to cost and environmental protection, and the demand is mixed. The inventory is in a de - stocking state. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. Gold - The Fed is divided on interest rate cuts in December. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [2]. Rebar - On November 17, the domestic steel market rose. The supply - demand pressure has been relieved, and the cost remains high. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and fluctuate around the cost in the medium term [4]. Ferrosilicon - The开工 rate is 34.84%, and the daily output has decreased. The cost has increased, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level [5]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties have risen. The money market is tight, but central bank operations are positive. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Silver - There may be pressure on the US employment market, and the Fed's decision lacks data support. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [6]. Live Pigs - On November 17, the pork price decreased by 0.4%. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [6]. Palm Oil - As of November 14, the domestic inventory has increased significantly. The price increase space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7][8]. Soybeans - In the 46th week of 2025, the inventory has decreased. Domestic soybeans show a regional differentiation trend, and the price of soybean No.1 may oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term [8]. PVC - The price of SG - 5 type PVC has decreased, the production capacity utilization rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The production is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash has increased slightly, the production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is firm, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. Ethylene Glycol - The price has decreased, the production has increased slightly, and the port inventory has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - India has signed a procurement agreement, and the Russian export hub has resumed loading. Geopolitical issues have eased, and the price has declined slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [12]. PTA - The cost has increased, and the profit and processing fee have improved. The supply - demand has improved, and the price is supported in the short term [13]. Rubber - The raw material price has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The raw material price may remain high, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to transition weakly [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. Although the weak reality continued to suppress steel prices, the expectation of maintenance production increased, market sentiment returned to rationality, market activity was fair, and raw material support was strong. As of November 14, the average price of 20mm grade - III seismic - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,425 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the short term, the steel market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the strengthening of coking coal and coke disturbances, the downward price space is limited. In the future, as the expectation of production reduction increases, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Price Performance**: This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. The average price of 20mm grade - III seismic - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,425 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel has entered the off - season of demand. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the strengthening of coking coal and coke disturbances, the downward price space is limited. In the future, as the expectation of production reduction increases, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot metal output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 236.88 | 234.22 | 2.66 | 1.14% | Weekly | | Rebar mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 160.42 | 166.84 | - 6.42 | - 3.85% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 415.75 | 425.7 | - 9.95 | - 2.34% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 77.52 | 77.43 | 0.09 | 0.12% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 333 | 333.02 | - 0.02 | - 0.01% | Weekly | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for precious metal futures is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the medium - term trends may diverge [2] 2. Core View of the Report - After a weekly - level market correction, precious metals started a new upward trend, with silver's increase and momentum significantly greater than that of gold [2] - The end of the US federal government shutdown, the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets' decline, and the potential Fed rate cuts all impact the precious metal market [2] - The "pause" in Sino - US trade contradictions has cooled market risk - aversion sentiment, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for gold [2] - The Trump administration's "tariff refund" plan, with a cost of up to $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $300 billion, and the strong call for Fed rate cuts may lead to a divergence in the trends of gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Precious metals resumed their upward trend after a correction, and silver outperformed gold. The end of the government shutdown, Sino - US trade situation, and Fed rate - cut expectations all affect the market [2][3] 3.2 Factors to Watch - Key factors include Fed rate - cut expectations, international geopolitics, and better - than - expected US economic data [4] 3.3 Data Presentations - Multiple charts present data on precious metal futures, including internal and external prices, trading volume, and positions of gold and silver futures; dollar index, US interest rates, and their relationship with gold prices; various US macroeconomic data; and fund positions and price ratios of precious metals [5][11][15]

国债期货：震荡略偏多 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 市场回顾与展望：由于央行公开市场再度重启买卖国债，市场对利率收益率曲线调节的预期增加，国 债期货有所反弹，但是反弹幅度较为有限。随着中美贸易领域关系的缓和，避险情绪有所降温，逆周期调 节的紧迫性有所降低，并且适逢年底，稳增长措施的力度或有限，债市短期没有更多逻辑主线可以遵循， 中期依然震荡略偏多思路。 10月我国制造业PMI为49%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。非制造业PMI为50.1，比上月上升0.1个百分点。 综合PMI产出指数为50%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。10月末，社融存量同比增8.5%，M2同比增8.2%，环比均 下降0.2个百分点，企业资金需求有所减弱，表明经济动能有所减弱。但是价格数据表明，经济韧性依然存 在。10月份，CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续第 6个月扩大。PPI环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%，为年内首次上涨，同比下降2.1%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百 分点 ...

期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 双焦：周末提涨落地，供应延续下滑 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格震荡运行。周五河北、山东等地主流钢厂对焦炭 价格招标上调，涨幅为50-55元/吨，周末执行，焦炭第四轮提涨落地。虽然涨价四轮，但涨幅不及焦煤，焦 化厂现在普遍利润一般，出货节奏顺畅，焦企保持低库存运行。 展望：供应端，山西部分前期因井下原因生产受限的煤矿产量稍有恢复，但仍有因检查以及换工作面等 因素停减产的煤矿，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭产量延续下滑，中下游经过前期补库后采购有所放缓， 上游煤矿小幅累库，总体压力较小。整体上，盘面承压运行带动现货情绪转弱，竞拍流拍及降价煤矿增多， 但基本面支撑仍在，预计焦煤价格震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦 ...