Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, mostly predicting a short - term oscillatory trend for various commodities, and suggests corresponding trading strategies based on different market conditions [2][4][5]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Iron Ore - Inventory: The total import iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 138.9416 million tons, a decrease of 389,800 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1356 million tons, an increase of 123,100 tons. The number of ships at ports was 93, an increase of 2 [2]. - Outlook: Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and molten iron production are rising, and short - term high levels are expected to be maintained. There is a possibility of a small increase in ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. Silver - Fed Signal: Fed Governor Waller indicated that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as the July meeting, providing a signal for a possible restart of the easing cycle [2]. - Outlook: The Fed's loosening on interest rate cuts needs close attention. The Middle - East war is fundamentally bearish for silver, but whether gold will drive silver up needs to be observed. The possibility of a differentiated trend between gold and silver should be noted [2]. Treasury Bonds - Interest Rate Changes: Most money market interest rates moved up. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for 1 - day increased by 0.29 BP to 1.3742%, the 7 - day decreased by 5.0 BP to 1.4941% (a new low since October 2024), and the 14 - day increased by 5.51 BP to 1.7319% (a new high in over a month) [4]. - Outlook: The upward movement of funds is bearish for the bond market. Attention should be paid to whether the risk - aversion sentiment further intensifies. The bond market's main logic is unclear, and a medium - term wide - range oscillation is expected. Whether the oscillation boundaries will be broken needs to be monitored [4]. Live Hogs - Market Data: As of June 20, the average live - hog slaughter weight was 123.78 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate was 27.66%, a decrease of 0.61%. The profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 53.42 yuan, a decrease of 25.16 yuan; the profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising was 61.11 yuan, an increase of 9.4 yuan. The piglet price was 445.71 yuan per head, a decrease of 23.34 yuan [4]. - Outlook: The live - hog price was stable with a slight upward trend over the weekend. Northern leading enterprises reduced supply, but slaughter enterprises were cautious in purchasing. It is recommended to buy the LH2601 contract at low prices, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to their slaughter schedules [4]. Palm Oil - Export Data: According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from June 1 - 20 were 759,881 tons, a 16.66% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - Outlook: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical factors, the oil market is oscillating. There are uncertainties, and market participants are cautious. Domestically, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the spot basis is weakly declining. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and attention should be paid to Middle - East geopolitical risks [5]. Soybeans - Argentine Sales: Argentina's soybean sales accelerated last week as the export tax will be raised from 26% to 33% next month. As of June 11, farmers pre - sold 21.35 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, an increase of 1.84 million tons from the previous week, and sold 40.54 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, an increase of 80,000 tons [5]. - Outlook: If the US biodiesel policy is implemented, it will impact domestic and global oil consumption. The domestic soybean supply and demand are both weak, and the price is stable. Interval trading is recommended [5]. Coking Coal - Profitability: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 23 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 31 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 68 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 49 yuan/ton [6]. - Outlook: The supply continued to shrink slightly as some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have not resumed production, and there were new production stoppages this week. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased. Although coke production decreased slightly, some coal resources became more cost - effective after the price decline, and downstream enterprises increased procurement, alleviating the inventory pressure on coal mines. The fourth round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and the market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Rebar - Production and Inventory Data: As of the week of June 19, rebar production was 2.1218 million tons, an increase of 46,100 tons (2.22%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 1.8232 million tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons (0.31%); social inventory was 3.6875 million tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons (1.72%); apparent demand was 2.1919 million tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons (0.35%) [6][8]. - Outlook: This week, supply was strong while demand was weak, but inventory continued to decline. The macro - level Sino - US easing trade has ended, and the Iran - Israel war has pushed up crude oil prices, making the overall commodity market sentiment positive. More than half of the steel mills are profitable, but the losses of short - process steel mills are increasing. Demand has weakened again, and the pessimistic demand expectation remains due to the drag from the real estate sector. The short - term fundamental contradiction of rebar is limited, and the futures price mainly follows the raw material price. Attention should be paid to the support of raw material spot and futures prices, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Gold - Geopolitical Event: On June 21 (Eastern US time), US President Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," but Iran stated that the Fordow nuclear facility was not severely damaged. A US senior official admitted that the attack caused serious damage but did not destroy the facility [8]. - Outlook: The consequences of the US action are uncertain, and it may either lead to the end of the Middle - East conflict or an escalation of chaos. The gold price movement is relatively flat, but the financial market is笼罩 in an atmosphere of anxiety. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines or trade with a small position based on technical analysis [8]. Crude Oil - Drilling and Export Data: As of the week of June 20, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 438, the lowest since October 2021, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and 47 from the same period last year. Since Israel's air strike on Iran on June 13, Iran's average daily crude oil exports increased by 44% compared to the average of the past 12 months, reaching 2.33 million barrels per day [9]. - Outlook: Iran's oil production and exports have not been significantly affected so far. Although there are voices in Iran suggesting considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz, it is likely to be a last - resort option. The tense situation has not eased, and there are still uncertainties. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or trade in the short term [9]. Rubber - Raw Material and Capacity Data: The price of Thai raw rubber latex was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump rubber price was 48.05 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of latex for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,300 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex was 13,400 yuan/ton; in Hainan, the corresponding prices were 12,400 yuan/ton and 14,200 yuan/ton. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a 1.56% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a 2.69% increase. The average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were 47.42 days, a 1.14 - day increase; for full - steel tire sample enterprises, it was 41.89 days, a 0.15 - day increase [10]. - Outlook: The main rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia and China are not in the seasonally rainy period, and although rubber tapping is affected, it is in line with expectations. There have been no unexpected changes in supply. After the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the overall demand has not changed much. Domestic downstream industries have high finished - product inventories and lack the motivation to continuously purchase raw materials. The geopolitical situation has also affected the crude oil price and, in turn, the rubber futures price. An oscillatory trading strategy is recommended [10]. PTA - Price and Supply Data: PXCFR was reported at $888/ton, and the PX - N spread was $255/ton. The price of East China PTA was 5,170 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost was 4,960 yuan/ton. The operating rate of China's PX industry decreased by 0.2% to 85.6%, and the Asian PX industry operating rate decreased by 1.3% to 74.3%. Some domestic PX plants had load fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance in July [11]. - Outlook: The PXN spread has support. The shutdown of some PTA plants and the reduction of operating rates have offset the impact of the restart of some plants, and the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved marginally. Due to the uncertainty of the crude oil price, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or trade in the short term [11][12]. Methanol - Market and Inventory Data: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. China's methanol port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous week; the sample production enterprise inventory was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons; the sample enterprise order backlog was 273,800 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons. The methanol operating rate was 88.65%, an increase of 0.76% from the previous week; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.73%, a decrease of 0.41% [12]. - Outlook: The coal price is expected to be stable, and the domestic methanol operating rate is expected to remain high. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and imported methanol arrivals are expected to increase this week, which may lead to port inventory accumulation. The inland methanol market is consolidating, and the port market basis is stable, but the buying sentiment is weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at the 2,610 - yuan level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or short - sell on rebounds [12]. Soda Ash - Price and Production Data: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash was 1,338 yuan/ton, showing a downward oscillatory trend. Weekly soda ash production was 753,700 tons, an increase of 1.84% from the previous week; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.726 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The float glass start - up rate was 75.34%, a decrease of 0.08%; the national average price of float glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.29% [13]. - Outlook: The float glass start - up rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. The East China market is generally stable with minor fluctuations, and some enterprises in Jiangsu have loosened prices. The mid - and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. The domestic soda ash market is performing averagely, with weak trading sentiment. Downstream demand is lukewarm, and the purchasing sentiment is cautious, with most purchases at low prices for immediate needs. The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at the 1,185 - yuan level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or short - sell on rebounds [13]. PVC - Price and Supply Data: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous week. There are new production plans for Shaanxi Jintai Phase II and Fujian Wanhua Phase II, increasing the supply pressure. PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74%. The average profit per ton of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 494 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; the average profit per ton of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan [14]. - Outlook: The scale of PVC plant maintenance has increased, but the supply remains high. The profit is poor, and there are still expectations of new production capacity coming online. Demand is stable, and exports have entered the off - season. The increase in the crude oil price has put pressure on the PVC spot market, and the price increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4,890 - yuan level for the 09 contract. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or go long in the short term [14].

期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】Mysteel卫星数据显示，2024年6月9日-6 月15日期间， 澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量 1226.2万吨，环比下降25.9万吨，库存连续三期下滑，绝对量 处于二季度以来的中等偏下水平。评：综合来看，铁矿石供应 压力仍较大，需求端逐步放缓但尚有支撑，铁矿上下空间均有 限，不过在终端需求持续走弱情况下，后续产业链或面临负反 馈风险。操作上建议铁矿2509合约维持逢高沽空思路，参考压 力位730元/吨。 【短评-原油】EIA报告显示，美国至6月13日当周除却战略 储备的商业原油库存减少1147.3万桶至4.21亿桶，汽油库 存 20.9万桶，06月13日当周美国国内原油产量增加0.3万桶至 1343.1万桶/日；俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克向记者，如果 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到 1.056亿桶/日的峰值，2030年小幅回落。与此同时，全球产能 预计到2030年将增加超500万桶/日，达1.147亿桶/日。预计 2025年全球石油供应将增加180万桶/日，将2025年平均石油需 求增长预期下调至72万桶/日，将2026年平均石油需求增长预期 下调至74万桶/日；API数据：当周API原油库存大幅下降1013.3 万桶；据央视报道，当地时间6月17日，乌克兰基辅军政管理局 负责人特卡琴科表示，当日凌晨俄罗斯对基辅及周边地区发动 了大规模袭击，此次袭击击中了居民楼，造成严重损失；据新 华社报道，欧盟委员会6月17日提出一项立法提案，欧盟将在 2027年年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油；据伊朗国 家通讯社报道，革命卫队周二宣布向以色列发射"更强大"的 新一轮导弹，一名高级军官称无人机群即将来袭。评：IEA月报 预测年度供应宽松。市场注意力集中在了中东地缘层面，目前 紧张局势仍未得到缓和。短期短多思路。 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报866美元/吨，PX-N242美元/吨； 华东PTA报4980元/吨 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】 最新一轮的以色列与伊朗冲突对10年期美 国国债造成的抛售压力可能会产生持久影响。自上周五双方冲 突以来，受油价飙升和预算赤字担忧的推动，10年期美债收益 率已上涨逾10个基点。评：油价走高，美国通胀存在持续走高 的风险。全球经济下行压力持续加大，经济基本面利空白银。 地缘政治激化，也利空白银。但是白银是否会跟随黄金上涨， 仍然需要注意。市场关注美联储降息预期。白银短期震荡等待 会议指引。关注黄金走势是否对白银有影响。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料稳中有涨。杯胶上涨0.4泰铢/公斤 至47.45泰铢/公斤，胶水持平，仍然为56.75泰铢/公斤；云南 原料也出现了明显的上涨。制干胶胶水上涨0.2-0.4元/公斤至 13.1-13.3元/公斤；青岛库存增加1400吨至60.69万吨，增加 0.23%。其中保税区库存下降1.87%至8.39万吨。一般贸易库存 增加0.58%至52.29万吨。评：产区新胶释放缓慢，成本存一定 支撑，需求端暂未有明显改善迹象。阶段性原油对相关品种影 响比重变大，偏震荡偏多对待。 投资咨询中心 2025年06月17日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shi ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1357元/吨，震荡下行 趋势；纯碱开工率86.81%，个别企业负荷调整，窄幅增加；纯 碱厂家总库存168.6万吨，周上升5.9万吨；浮法玻璃开工率 75.68%，周度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均价11197元/吨，环比上 日-3元/吨；全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6968.5万重箱，环比 下降0.1%。评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，沙河市场 部分小板价格下调，市场需求乏力，交投偏淡。国内纯碱市场 走势偏弱，成交一般，装置运行正常，个别企业负荷恢复，产 量稳步提升，下游需求不温不火，按需为主，低价成交为主。 预计纯碱09合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力1170一线，建议观望 或反弹短线做空。 【短评-白银】 4月欧元区工业与贸易遭遇显著冲击，这很 可能是受美国关税政策的影响，同时也挑战了经济学家此前关 于"欧元区在经济动荡中表现稳健"的观点。欧盟统计局发布 的数据显示，4月欧盟工业产出环比下降2.4%，远超市场预期的 1.7%跌幅，且工业各领域均出现萎缩。评：全球经济下行压力 持续加大，经济基本面利空白银。地缘政治激化，也利空白 银。但是白银是否会跟 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开工率 57.36%较上期降3.23%；日均产量47.79万吨减3.67万吨；原煤 库存336.13万吨增8.72万吨；精煤库存251.47万吨增6.41万 吨。评：炼焦煤市场延续偏弱下行，煤焦基本面变化不大，依 然是偏弱的格局，铁水见顶回落，钢材淡季逐步到来，成材消 费会季节性走弱，后续或形成负反馈继续打压原料价格，但焦 煤绝对价格已跌至近年来最低水平，部分煤矿已陷入亏损，继 续下跌空间有限，后续下跌斜率或将放缓，继续缓慢探底。 【短评-原油】据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月12日，美国 总统特朗普表示，以色列对伊朗的袭击"很有可能发生"，但 他不会称之为"迫在眉睫的袭击"。 特朗普表示，他更倾向于 避免与伊朗发生冲突，并就其核计划达成和平解决方案；美国 驻以色列大使赫卡比12日在接受媒体采访时表示，如果没有美 国的批准，以色列不太可能攻击伊朗；伊朗高级官员:美国人员 撤离并不是(受到)威胁的信号。评：市场在等待伊朗和美国6月 15日恢复谈判。整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增 速下降对短期油价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据法新社报道，美国及伊朗双方6月11日均 就美伊核谈判作出最新表态。美国总统特朗普在当日播出的采 访中表示，他对与伊朗达成核协议"信心减弱"。与此同时， 伊朗6月11日则表示，若谈判失败，美伊之间爆发冲突，伊朗将 以美国在中东地区的军事基地作为目标；美国能源信息署数据 显示；美国商业原油库存量4.32415亿桶，比前一周下降364.4 万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.29804亿桶，比前一周增长150.4万 桶；美国原油日均产量1342.8万桶，比前周日均产量增加2万 桶。评：美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级推动隔夜原油大涨。 整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增速下降对短期油 价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产量落实情况。短期低位短多思路。 【短评-黄金】美国和伊拉克消息人士周三表示，美国正准 备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各军事基地的 军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。评：地缘风险增加， 原油上涨，避险情绪助推黄金上涨，但是美联储降息预期增 加，降息预期利多白银大于利多黄金，资金关注点转为白银。 黄金、白银或走分化行情，黄金中期高位震荡略偏多思路对 待。关注关 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】世界银行周二将2025年全球经济增长预测下 调至2.3%，比前次预测下调0.4%。世界银行认为，更高的关税 和不确定加剧对几乎所有的经济体都构成了"重大阻力"。 EIA6月份《短期能源展望》：预计今年美国原油日均产量将略 高于1340万桶，2026年日均产量将略低于1340万桶；预计今年 全球石油日需求量将增长80万桶，2026年将增长110万桶，预计 今年全球石油日产量将增加160万桶，2026年将增加80万桶；美 国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年6月6日当周，美国商业原油 库存减少37万桶；同期美国汽油库存增加296.9万桶，今年至 今，美国原油库存累计增加了1800万桶以上。评：世界银行下 调全球经济预测抑制了油价涨势，国际油价从两个月以来最高 点适度回落。EIA上调了2025年原油市场过剩预期，其数据显示 今年前五个月全球石油库存增加，并将在预测期内继续增长,承 压原油市场。整体上，供应过剩施压原油市场。关注美伊谈判 和俄乌谈判进展情况，中美谈判进展。阶段性偏高估沽空。 【短评-焦炭】6月10日，市场价格偏弱运行，上周五河 北、山东主流钢厂针对焦炭价格价格下 ...

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

钢材期货周度报告 2025年06月09日 供需矛盾不大 成本支撑下移 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格窄幅调整，全国螺纹钢均价环比上 涨1元/吨。端午节后归来，市场有一定的补库情绪，但在双焦下 挫，拖累成材的影响下，市场报价偏弱调整，周中受安全检查加 严影响，原材企稳回升，在建材基本面矛盾不大的情况下，价格 震荡企稳。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由强转弱，铁水产量略有减少，而品 种产量表现不一。需求端：由于多重因素的影响，市场投机需求 呈现间断性放大，使得各品种市场成交均有所回升，但季节性淡 季效应也正在深入。成本端：由于铁矿石价格小幅震荡，废钢价 格稳中下滑，焦炭价格维持平稳，生产成本支撑力度走弱。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权 策略：宽跨式盘整 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢材期货周报 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许 ...