1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to oscillate in the medium term due to the combination of supply - demand factors and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Economic recovery in September is a long - term negative for the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market. The operation of the bond market is likely to face increased difficulty [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the accelerated pace of fiscal bond issuance and the tight balance of liquidity have a bearish impact on the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market into a continuous downward trend, but this logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, increasing the difficulty of market operation [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The second re - issuance of the fourth tranche of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has completed the tendering, with the overall issuance scale reaching 114.8 billion yuan and the issuance progress at 88.3% [10]. - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [10]. - Affected by the high base and food prices, China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month, down 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the increase has expanded for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [14]. - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars were up 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports were up 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14]. - The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tendering, and multi - price winning bids, with the operation time and scale determined according to liquidity management needs [13]. - Market expectations for the restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations are gradually rising [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity generally continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. The GDP in the second quarter was up 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations. The economic data in August shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and if counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long term [15]. 3.2 Policy Front - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The social financing stock reached 43.126 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap in August indicates strengthened economic activities [17]. 3.3 Capital Front - Since July 25, DR007 has been declining, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain sufficient liquidity. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases suddenly [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Front - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this year and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The support from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [21]. 3.5 Sentiment Front - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly declined recently, it is still at a high level. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital front, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing the supply and putting pressure on the liquidity of the inter - bank market. The tight balance of liquidity has increased the bearish factors for the bond market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, whether the risk appetite will continue to increase and whether the stock - bond seesaw will be bearish for the bond market need to be continuously observed. The combination of the stock - bond seesaw logic and loose liquidity may increase the difficulty of bond market operation [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: After geopolitical factors are digested, the oversupply expectation remains the dominant factor for oil prices. OPEC+ is increasing production, and non - OPEC+ supply is high. It is advisable to short at high prices [1]. - **Gold**: The US government shutdown negotiation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing a rebound in gold. The Fed's independence is controversial, adding uncertainty. Gold is long - term bullish but requires further short - term observation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, but the impact of over - production inspections persists. With pre - holiday stockpiling and futures - spot resonance, coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas shipments have returned to normal, and supply is stable. Demand is supported in the short term, and there is an expectation of restocking, which strongly supports ore prices [4]. - **Rebar**: With a warm macro - environment, production is decreasing due to low profits. Demand is picking up, and the fundamentals are improving, providing strong support for the price [5]. - **Pig**: The market is currently oversupplied, but after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance is increasing. Short - term long positions can be attempted [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The increase in the reference price supports the futures price, but domestic supply is expected to be loose. It is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price has room for limited decline. It is advisable to restock at low prices before the holidays, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2970 - 3050 [7]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It should be treated with a neutral view [8]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamental contradiction is limited. With low inventory and some demand, the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is decreasing, and downstream demand is rising. The port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is adjusting, with high - level inventory decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is slowly improving. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The restart of 14 - day reverse repurchase has different impacts on the bond market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Silver**: The US infrastructure investment plan increases risk preference, and silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of September 19, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 418, the highest since July. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and non - OPEC+ supply is also high [1]. Metals - **Gold**: The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: As of a certain date, the inventory of 45 ports was 13,801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons. The daily dredging volume increased by 7.89 million tons [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%. Production decreased, and demand increased [5]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of September 19, the average slaughter weight was 123.51 kg, the weekly slaughter rate was 32.06%, and the breeding profit decreased [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia raised the October reference price, and the export volume from September 1 - 20 increased by 8.7% compared to the same period last month [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of September 19, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises were 9.42 days, an increase of 2.20% from September 12 [7]. Chemicals - **Coking Coal**: The daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.65 million tons, and the coking coal inventory was 790.34 million tons, a decrease of 3.39 million tons [3]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream tire enterprise inventory is high, limiting restocking enthusiasm [8]. - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 enterprises was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.5%. The factory and social inventories decreased [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 4.68%. The port inventory increased by 0.75 million tons [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The weekly output was 74.57 million tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [12]. - **Polypropylene**: The capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.29%. The commercial inventory decreased by 3.59 million tons [12]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, increasing the release of medium - and long - term liquidity [13]. - **Silver**: The US is considering a $550 billion infrastructure investment fund, which increases risk preference [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report Core Views - For coking coal, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the upward momentum depends on "anti - involution" drivers. The coking coal main contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term [1]. - For crude oil, the supply pressure remains, and it is advisable to sell at high prices as the concerns about the US economy outweigh the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the peak demand season is ending, and the US dollar index rebounds [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly as the global iron ore shipment volume rebounds, the arrival volume fluctuates slightly, the molten iron output fluctuates narrowly at a high level, and the port inventory is expected to increase [4]. - For rebar, the steel price may fluctuate narrowly in the short term as the "Golden September" steel demand recovers slowly, the high - priced resource transactions are poor, the supply - demand fundamentals improve limitedly, and the market sentiment turns cautious [4]. - For live pigs, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust at a low level in the short term as the supply exceeds demand, but some regions have stopped falling and stabilized [5]. - For palm oil, it may trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic supply is loose, but the cost side provides strong support [5]. - For rapeseed meal, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate downward in the short term as the feed demand decreases significantly and the actual new order volume of spot goods is poor [6]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a range - bound view as it is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, with high overseas raw material prices, continuous destocking of spot inventory, and weakening consumption [7]. - For PTA, the spot market may decline under pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to sell at high prices in the short - term as the terminal performance is mediocre in the traditional peak season, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost side is under pressure [7]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic methanol start - up rate drops from a high level, the downstream demand recovers, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate downward in the medium term and upward in the long term, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted as the initial jobless claims decline shows economic resilience, but the economic downward pressure is still large [9]. - For gold, it is bearish in the short term, and the medium - and long - term trends need further observation as the Fed's interest - rate cut is implemented, and the Fed's independence is controversial [9]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, they may fluctuate in the short term as the issuance of ultra - long - term treasury bonds increases the bond supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut may have limited positive effects on the bond market [10]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the domestic soda ash market stabilizes, the manufacturer's inventory decreases from a high level, and the downstream demand is stable [12]. - For plastics, the L2601 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the LLDPE price is stable, the production enterprise inventory decreases, the supply side starts at a high level, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise [13]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines is 84.7%, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The daily average output of raw coal is 190,000 tons, a 44,000 - ton increase; the raw coal inventory is 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily average output of clean coal is 76,100 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase; the clean coal inventory is 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease [1]. Crude Oil - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory is 2.761 billion barrels, a 2.4 - million - barrel increase from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it is 66.5 million barrels less, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019. The freight rate of large oil tankers soared to the highest level in more than two years on September 18, and the freight rate index (TD3C) of the key route from the Middle East to China reached W108, a nearly 150% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. Iron Ore - From September 8 - 14, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2.3923 million tons, a 180,600 - ton decrease; at 45 ports, it is 2.3623 million tons, an 85,700 - ton decrease; at six northern ports, it is 1.245 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending September 18, the rebar output is 206,450 tons, a 54,800 - ton decrease from last week, a 2.59% decline; the factory inventory is 165,070 tons, a 15,600 - ton decrease, a 0.94% decline; the social inventory is 485,210 tons, a 20,200 - ton decrease, a 0.41% decline; the apparent demand is 210,030 tons, an 119,600 - ton increase, a 6.04% increase [4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" is 117.90, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index is 118.67. The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.55 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease from the previous day; the egg price is 8.40 yuan/kg, a 1.6% increase [5]. Palm Oil - In August, China's palm oil imports are 340,000 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.59 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's soybean oil imports are 100,000 tons, a 113.9% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 19 tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. Rapeseed Meal - In August, China's imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 140,000 tons, an 18.7% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.45 million tons, a 24.1% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are 1.9756 million tons, accounting for 94.8% of the total rapeseed imports [6]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 51.65 Thai baht/kg. The price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 16,300 yuan/ton. In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reach 650,000 tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, China's rubber tire production is 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production is 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [6][7]. PTA - The PTA social inventory is 3.3091 million tons, a 24,200 - ton decrease from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 77.29%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 88.0% [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,247 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate is 79.91%, a 4.68% decrease. The 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant of Shenhua Xinjiang is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.87%, a 2.2% weekly increase. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5578 million tons, a 7,500 - ton weekly increase. The sample production enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, a 2,100 - ton weekly decrease. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 233,800 tons, a 16,900 - ton weekly decrease [8]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, with an expected 240,000 and a previous value revised from 263,000 to 264,000. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remains above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. Gold - On the 18th local time, the US government requested the US Supreme Court to allow President Trump to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte publicly accused Cook in August of declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain more favorable mortgage rates and submitted relevant criminal charges to the Department of Justice [9]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The second re - issuance of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (Phase 4) in 2025 has completed the tendering process. After the issuance, the overall issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds this year has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [10]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently. The weekly soda ash output is 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% weekly decrease. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The national average float glass price is 1,166 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [11][12]. Plastics - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,296 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The weekly LLDPE output is 295,800 tons, a 3.21% weekly increase; the production enterprise inventory is 161,200 tons, a 0.86% weekly decrease. The daily production profit of oil - based LLDPE is - 334 yuan/ton. The average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increases by 1.6% weekly, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural films increases by 2.6% and that of PE packaging films increases by 0.5% [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in nine months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Precious metals may lack further upward momentum in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days due to concerns about supply disruptions from drone attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of a US central bank rate cut. However, supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. - Pig prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term due to oversupply, with attention needed on the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - Palm oil is expected to be under pressure in the short term due to high inventory at the origin and weak demand, despite a decline in production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand for iron ore remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although steel demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. - The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6]. - Silver prices may be affected by gold fluctuations, and attention should be paid to whether the post - rate - cut market follows the expected trend [6]. - Rubber prices should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude as they are in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [7]. - PTA should be observed as polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply [7]. - Methanol and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades [8][10]. - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's rate cut is in place, and precious metals may lack short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - **Silver**: US construction investment is lower than expected, increasing economic downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig prices are expected to decline in the short term due to oversupply. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - **Soybeans**: Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline in Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 15 provides some support, but overall, it is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude [7]. Industrial Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply. It is recommended to observe [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol is at a high - production level, and port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades [10]. - **Plastic**: Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades on dips [10]. Bonds - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6].

Group 1: Gold - The market is digesting an expected 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year, and the Fed's independence is continuously affected. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the market rhythm [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,284 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. The weekly output is 761,100 tons, a 1.25% week - on - week increase. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7975 million tons, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,325 level [1] Group 3: Crude Oil - Due to concerns about supply disruptions from attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of US central bank interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term cautious trading is recommended [3] Group 4: Rubber - Overseas raw material prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and spot inventories continue to decline. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and should be treated with a range - bound view [4] Group 5: PTA - As of September 12, the PTA load increased to 76.8%, a 3.9% week - on - week increase. The weekly output was 1.388 million tons, a 99,000 - ton week - on - week increase. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Group 6: Coking Coal - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the supply of coking coal at home and abroad has recovered. The downstream demand has increased, and a bullish - biased trading idea is recommended [6] Group 7: Manganese Silicon - The cost support for manganese silicon is limited. The market supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and the price is expected to face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [7] Group 8: Rebar - On September 16, domestic steel market prices mostly rose. Driven by positive macro - expectations and rising costs, steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [7] Group 9: Short - term Treasury Bonds - In the third quarter, the bond - issuing rhythm may accelerate, and the expectation of tight liquidity increases, which is negative for the bond market. However, the positive factors for treasury bond futures are increasing [8] Group 10: Silver - US retail sales data is still growing positively month - on - month, which is bullish for silver. Before the interest rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [8] Group 11: Methanol - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,375 level [9] Group 12: Polypropylene - The start - up of polypropylene has increased, and the overall supply is still abundant. The 01 contract of PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 6,965 level [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend across different commodities, with some expected to be volatile, some bullish in the short - term, and others bearish or with a neutral outlook [1][2][4]. - Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and economic indicators significantly influence commodity prices [2][9]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support short - term oil prices, but supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress prices in the medium - term; it is recommended to trade cautiously in the short - term [2]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the given content. Metals Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments are rising, arrivals are fluctuating slightly, iron - water production is high and stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Steel (including Rebar) - Cost increases drive steel prices up, but considering the balanced supply - demand in the steel market, continuous price increases are doubtful; short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Copper - Not covered in the given content. Aluminum - Not covered in the given content. Gold - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the price trend is bullish; after the cut, it may follow the expected realization trend. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations [9]. Silver - Before the interest - rate cut, the price is expected to be bullish; after the cut, it may enter an expected realization phase. The influence of gold price fluctuations on silver should be monitored [9]. Agricultural Products Corn - Not covered in the given content. Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to strong new - grain harvest expectations and cautious attitudes of grain trading enterprises. The upward price space is limited [7]. Wheat - Not covered in the given content. Cotton - Not covered in the given content. Palm Oil - Floods in Malaysia's palm - oil producing areas and strong demand in India support the price. Domestic demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. Pork - The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [5]. Chemicals PX - As PX maintenance units restart, supply increases to a high level. Although there is some short - term demand support, the expected increase in new orders and production load is limited. The supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [8]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile [10]. Polyethylene (including LLDPE) - LLDPE prices are weak, supply is high, production enterprise inventories are rising, downstream demand is expected to increase, and cost support is strengthening. The short - term price of the L2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. PVC - Not covered in the given content. Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are resilient, port inventories are decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking, and the price is slightly rising. It is currently in a low - inventory and weak - demand situation and is expected to be volatile [8]. Others Tires - Not covered in the given content. Paper - Not covered in the given content. Glass - Float glass production is stable, inventories are slightly decreasing, and the trading atmosphere in the East China market is average. The domestic soda - ash market is in an adjustment phase, with supply slightly decreasing and downstream demand being mainly for replenishing stocks as needed [12]. Soda Ash - The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions on price corrections [12]. Coke - Coking enterprises still have profits, supply is becoming more abundant, and the futures price is expected to be volatile after two rounds of price cuts. Attention should be paid to iron - water production during the peak season [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is bullish with oscillations [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous deterioration of the US employment situation has increased market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [2][27] - The increase in the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's competitiveness in the market. Although the US dollar index has been relatively strong recently, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been limited, and the short - term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate have had limited impact on precious metals [3] - As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The significant decline in US non - farm and employment data has increased market concerns about the US economic downturn. Currently, the market is trading on the amplitude and consecutive number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Gold prices have been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously under the impetus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, but may decline significantly after the interest rate cut is implemented. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate plans to hold a full - scale vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will enter the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee and participate in subsequent interest rate decision - making votes [12] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months to 3.9% [12] - The global central bank reserve pattern is about to undergo a milestone change. The proportion of gold in the reserves of global central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [14] - In August, the US CPI was in line with expectations year - on - year, slightly higher than expected month - on - month. The core CPI was in line with expectations and the previous value both year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021 [14] - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected value and the initial value. The annualized revised value of the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected value [14] - The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing new support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates next week [15] 3.3 Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was at a five - month low, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months. The ISM manufacturing index in August was slightly higher than that in July but lower than expected, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range. The current US economic data shows increasing downward pressure on the US economy [16] 3.3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14th to 17th to discuss issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Trump has made a series of statements on sanctions against Russia, pressuring Europe to impose economic pressure on China, and imposing tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not transfer production to the US. After the successful completion of China's September 3rd military parade, the US has continued to release negative signals, intensifying geopolitical tensions [19] 3.3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US non - farm employment growth in August was far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI in July reached a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [20] 3.3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate still passively tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the expectation of a decline in the US dollar index has increased, but the US dollar has shown good resilience. The offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation range is limited. The RMB exchange rate is not a key consideration factor as its impact on gold is limited [24] 3.4 Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continuous deterioration of the US employment situation, market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year have increased. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently characterized by shrinking steel - mill profits, weak supply and demand for rebar. The price of rebar oscillated weakly this week, with a rebound at the end of the week due to macro - expectation news. In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range [2][3][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. Demand expectations were unmet, inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill profits narrowed significantly. However, production remained at a high level. The market sentiment was weak, but raw - material support still existed. The price oscillated weakly and rebounded at the end of the week [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The State Council approved pilot comprehensive reforms on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new - quality productive forces [5]. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [5]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [5]. - In August, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. For the first 8 months of this year, the total goods trade imports and exports were 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [6]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [6]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [6]. - In early September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,100 tons, higher than last week's 97,000 tons. Some market traders felt that the terminal procurement volume had increased to a certain extent compared with the previous period, but the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, showing a weak - recovery trend. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally balanced, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - hotspots such as the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [24]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The supply of coking coal and coke has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts for coke has begun. After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The investment strategies are mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for coking profits [2][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. The first - round price cut for coke was officially implemented on Monday. Due to poor steel mill profits, the second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was proposed on Friday and took effect at 0:00 on September 15, while coke enterprises have not responded yet [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The State Council approved pilot projects for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in 10 regions including the Beijing Sub - center and key cities in southern Jiangsu. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new productive forces [6]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. The industry aims for stable and positive development in 2026 [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [6]. - In August, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. Exports and imports increased for three consecutive months. In the first eight months, the total goods trade import and export value was 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [7]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month [7]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise, up 2.61 million tons or 39.6% from the beginning of the year, and up 360,000 tons or 4.1% from the same period last year, with the year - on - year change turning from a decrease to an increase [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Except for a few coal mines whose underground production has not recovered, most previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply has returned to normal. The coking coal auction performance has been mixed, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment has eased [2]. - **Demand**: Currently, downstream coke - steel enterprises have low procurement willingness, mainly for just - in - time inventory replenishment. The market is in a wait - and - see state. Due to poor sales and continuous price pressure of finished products, while raw material costs were previously firm, steel mill profits have gradually shrunk. This week, the pig iron output recovered significantly, showing a short - term demand recovery, but the medium - and long - term market outlook remains cautious, and the peak - season characteristics are not significant [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - **Market Outlook**: After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. After the market correction in late August and considering potential macro - policy disturbances, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly [30]. - **Investment Strategies**: For single - side trading, mainly conduct range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "oscillating with a bearish bias, and paying attention to the stock-bond seesaw" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing supply. The liquidity in the interbank market faces pressure from bond supply, and the tight balance of liquidity due to the demand from the real economy and the warming stock market has increased negative factors for the bond market [2][27] - China's economic prosperity continues to expand overall. The acceleration of the economic recovery rhythm in September is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [2][27] - The loose liquidity is the main tone of the second half of the year. The central bank is expected to provide timely liquidity support according to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the fiscal bond - issuing rhythm has accelerated. The supply - demand logic and the stock - bond seesaw logic have increased the difficulty of bond market operations [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [13] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [13] - Affected by the high base and food prices, in August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [13][14] - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14][15] - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's treasury bond trading operations has been gradually rising [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. The overall economic data in August shows that the endogenous economic momentum is strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy has weakened. Continuous strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment will be a long - term negative factor for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspect - At the end of August, the narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicates that economic activities have increased. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has slightly increased, and the monthly new social financing has increased compared with last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - After July 25, DR007 continued to decline, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, and the Fed's interest rate cut may provide more room for domestic monetary policy easing [18] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds has accelerated. The market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [22] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk preference has increased. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the increase in bond market supply and the tight balance of liquidity have increased negative factors for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [27]