Group 1: Gold - The market is digesting an expected 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year, and the Fed's independence is continuously affected. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the market rhythm [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,284 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. The weekly output is 761,100 tons, a 1.25% week - on - week increase. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7975 million tons, a 1.35% week - on - week decrease. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,325 level [1] Group 3: Crude Oil - Due to concerns about supply disruptions from attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of US central bank interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term cautious trading is recommended [3] Group 4: Rubber - Overseas raw material prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and spot inventories continue to decline. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and should be treated with a range - bound view [4] Group 5: PTA - As of September 12, the PTA load increased to 76.8%, a 3.9% week - on - week increase. The weekly output was 1.388 million tons, a 99,000 - ton week - on - week increase. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Group 6: Coking Coal - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the supply of coking coal at home and abroad has recovered. The downstream demand has increased, and a bullish - biased trading idea is recommended [6] Group 7: Manganese Silicon - The cost support for manganese silicon is limited. The market supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and the price is expected to face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [7] Group 8: Rebar - On September 16, domestic steel market prices mostly rose. Driven by positive macro - expectations and rising costs, steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [7] Group 9: Short - term Treasury Bonds - In the third quarter, the bond - issuing rhythm may accelerate, and the expectation of tight liquidity increases, which is negative for the bond market. However, the positive factors for treasury bond futures are increasing [8] Group 10: Silver - US retail sales data is still growing positively month - on - month, which is bullish for silver. Before the interest rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [8] Group 11: Methanol - The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,375 level [9] Group 12: Polypropylene - The start - up of polypropylene has increased, and the overall supply is still abundant. The 01 contract of PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 6,965 level [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend across different commodities, with some expected to be volatile, some bullish in the short - term, and others bearish or with a neutral outlook [1][2][4]. - Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and economic indicators significantly influence commodity prices [2][9]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support short - term oil prices, but supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress prices in the medium - term; it is recommended to trade cautiously in the short - term [2]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the given content. Metals Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments are rising, arrivals are fluctuating slightly, iron - water production is high and stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Steel (including Rebar) - Cost increases drive steel prices up, but considering the balanced supply - demand in the steel market, continuous price increases are doubtful; short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Copper - Not covered in the given content. Aluminum - Not covered in the given content. Gold - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the price trend is bullish; after the cut, it may follow the expected realization trend. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations [9]. Silver - Before the interest - rate cut, the price is expected to be bullish; after the cut, it may enter an expected realization phase. The influence of gold price fluctuations on silver should be monitored [9]. Agricultural Products Corn - Not covered in the given content. Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to strong new - grain harvest expectations and cautious attitudes of grain trading enterprises. The upward price space is limited [7]. Wheat - Not covered in the given content. Cotton - Not covered in the given content. Palm Oil - Floods in Malaysia's palm - oil producing areas and strong demand in India support the price. Domestic demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. Pork - The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [5]. Chemicals PX - As PX maintenance units restart, supply increases to a high level. Although there is some short - term demand support, the expected increase in new orders and production load is limited. The supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [8]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile [10]. Polyethylene (including LLDPE) - LLDPE prices are weak, supply is high, production enterprise inventories are rising, downstream demand is expected to increase, and cost support is strengthening. The short - term price of the L2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. PVC - Not covered in the given content. Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are resilient, port inventories are decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking, and the price is slightly rising. It is currently in a low - inventory and weak - demand situation and is expected to be volatile [8]. Others Tires - Not covered in the given content. Paper - Not covered in the given content. Glass - Float glass production is stable, inventories are slightly decreasing, and the trading atmosphere in the East China market is average. The domestic soda - ash market is in an adjustment phase, with supply slightly decreasing and downstream demand being mainly for replenishing stocks as needed [12]. Soda Ash - The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions on price corrections [12]. Coke - Coking enterprises still have profits, supply is becoming more abundant, and the futures price is expected to be volatile after two rounds of price cuts. Attention should be paid to iron - water production during the peak season [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is bullish with oscillations [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous deterioration of the US employment situation has increased market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [2][27] - The increase in the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's competitiveness in the market. Although the US dollar index has been relatively strong recently, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been limited, and the short - term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate have had limited impact on precious metals [3] - As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The significant decline in US non - farm and employment data has increased market concerns about the US economic downturn. Currently, the market is trading on the amplitude and consecutive number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Gold prices have been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously under the impetus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, but may decline significantly after the interest rate cut is implemented. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate plans to hold a full - scale vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will enter the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee and participate in subsequent interest rate decision - making votes [12] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months to 3.9% [12] - The global central bank reserve pattern is about to undergo a milestone change. The proportion of gold in the reserves of global central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [14] - In August, the US CPI was in line with expectations year - on - year, slightly higher than expected month - on - month. The core CPI was in line with expectations and the previous value both year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021 [14] - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected value and the initial value. The annualized revised value of the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected value [14] - The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing new support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates next week [15] 3.3 Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was at a five - month low, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months. The ISM manufacturing index in August was slightly higher than that in July but lower than expected, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range. The current US economic data shows increasing downward pressure on the US economy [16] 3.3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14th to 17th to discuss issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Trump has made a series of statements on sanctions against Russia, pressuring Europe to impose economic pressure on China, and imposing tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not transfer production to the US. After the successful completion of China's September 3rd military parade, the US has continued to release negative signals, intensifying geopolitical tensions [19] 3.3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US non - farm employment growth in August was far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI in July reached a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [20] 3.3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate still passively tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the expectation of a decline in the US dollar index has increased, but the US dollar has shown good resilience. The offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation range is limited. The RMB exchange rate is not a key consideration factor as its impact on gold is limited [24] 3.4 Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continuous deterioration of the US employment situation, market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year have increased. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently characterized by shrinking steel - mill profits, weak supply and demand for rebar. The price of rebar oscillated weakly this week, with a rebound at the end of the week due to macro - expectation news. In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range [2][3][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. Demand expectations were unmet, inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill profits narrowed significantly. However, production remained at a high level. The market sentiment was weak, but raw - material support still existed. The price oscillated weakly and rebounded at the end of the week [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The State Council approved pilot comprehensive reforms on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new - quality productive forces [5]. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [5]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [5]. - In August, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. For the first 8 months of this year, the total goods trade imports and exports were 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [6]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [6]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [6]. - In early September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,100 tons, higher than last week's 97,000 tons. Some market traders felt that the terminal procurement volume had increased to a certain extent compared with the previous period, but the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, showing a weak - recovery trend. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally balanced, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - hotspots such as the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [24]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The supply of coking coal and coke has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts for coke has begun. After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The investment strategies are mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for coking profits [2][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. The first - round price cut for coke was officially implemented on Monday. Due to poor steel mill profits, the second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was proposed on Friday and took effect at 0:00 on September 15, while coke enterprises have not responded yet [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The State Council approved pilot projects for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in 10 regions including the Beijing Sub - center and key cities in southern Jiangsu. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new productive forces [6]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. The industry aims for stable and positive development in 2026 [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [6]. - In August, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. Exports and imports increased for three consecutive months. In the first eight months, the total goods trade import and export value was 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [7]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month [7]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise, up 2.61 million tons or 39.6% from the beginning of the year, and up 360,000 tons or 4.1% from the same period last year, with the year - on - year change turning from a decrease to an increase [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Except for a few coal mines whose underground production has not recovered, most previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply has returned to normal. The coking coal auction performance has been mixed, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment has eased [2]. - **Demand**: Currently, downstream coke - steel enterprises have low procurement willingness, mainly for just - in - time inventory replenishment. The market is in a wait - and - see state. Due to poor sales and continuous price pressure of finished products, while raw material costs were previously firm, steel mill profits have gradually shrunk. This week, the pig iron output recovered significantly, showing a short - term demand recovery, but the medium - and long - term market outlook remains cautious, and the peak - season characteristics are not significant [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - **Market Outlook**: After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. After the market correction in late August and considering potential macro - policy disturbances, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly [30]. - **Investment Strategies**: For single - side trading, mainly conduct range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "oscillating with a bearish bias, and paying attention to the stock-bond seesaw" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing supply. The liquidity in the interbank market faces pressure from bond supply, and the tight balance of liquidity due to the demand from the real economy and the warming stock market has increased negative factors for the bond market [2][27] - China's economic prosperity continues to expand overall. The acceleration of the economic recovery rhythm in September is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [2][27] - The loose liquidity is the main tone of the second half of the year. The central bank is expected to provide timely liquidity support according to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the fiscal bond - issuing rhythm has accelerated. The supply - demand logic and the stock - bond seesaw logic have increased the difficulty of bond market operations [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [13] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [13] - Affected by the high base and food prices, in August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [13][14] - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14][15] - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's treasury bond trading operations has been gradually rising [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. The overall economic data in August shows that the endogenous economic momentum is strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy has weakened. Continuous strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment will be a long - term negative factor for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspect - At the end of August, the narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicates that economic activities have increased. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has slightly increased, and the monthly new social financing has increased compared with last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - After July 25, DR007 continued to decline, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, and the Fed's interest rate cut may provide more room for domestic monetary policy easing [18] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds has accelerated. The market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [22] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk preference has increased. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the increase in bond market supply and the tight balance of liquidity have increased negative factors for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to run smoothly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The negotiation focus in the East China market has moved up. Driven by the rise in the peripheral market, prices in Shandong and northern Jiangsu have followed suit, which has boosted production and sales. The overall shipment of enterprises is okay. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1140. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][23] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot negotiation focus in the domestic float glass market has risen, and the average price this week was 1160 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.31 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the North China market, overall shipment was good, inventory decreased, and prices were raised. In the East China market, the negotiation focus moved up, and prices in Shandong and northern Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, followed by enterprises in Anhui and Zhejiang with increases of 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Although the overall shipment was okay, most lacked confidence in the future market due to limited improvement in downstream orders [8] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of September 11, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 76.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to be stable. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels has different changes [12] - **Demand - side**: As of September 1, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. However, the terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to August 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area was 276940,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The production and sales of automobiles in August were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively [14] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94%. The inventory days were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China markets has decreased [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of September 12, the long position of the top 20 members in glass futures was 770,040, an increase of 6982, and the short position was 986,666, an increase of 35,331. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to run smoothly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The negotiation focus in the East China market has moved up, which has boosted production and sales. The overall shipment of enterprises is okay. Attention should be paid to the change in float glass demand in the later stage. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1140. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening. Slaughterhouses can easily acquire supplies, resulting in sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] - The demand side indicates that there is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, with little change in slaughter volume, and pork consumption continues to be weak [2][20] - Overall, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains high, terminal demand has not improved, there is little second - fattening, supply exceeds demand, pig prices have reached a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening, leading to smooth acquisition of supplies by slaughterhouses and sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - There is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, and there is little change in slaughter volume, with pork consumption remaining weak [2][20] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text 4. Market Outlook - The supply side has high slaughter enthusiasm from farms, strict transportation inspections, and low second - fattening enthusiasm, resulting in sufficient supplies. The demand side has no obvious positive news, high fresh - sales rate, and little change in slaughter volume. Supply exceeds demand, pig prices are at a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overall, after the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal quickly recovered, but the second - round price cut of coke began. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is continuously affected. The market is trading the subsequent interest - rate cut range and the number of consecutive interest - rate cuts of the Federal Reserve. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the gold price shows a bullish trend, but the rhythm needs attention [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar remains to be further verified, which limits the upside space of iron ore. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The policy signals are still positive. The supply - demand contradiction of rebar continues to accumulate, but with the return of the peak season, the demand is expected to pick up, and the policy still has positive impacts. The subsequent focus is on the recovery of peak - season demand [4]. - The supply of live pigs exceeds demand, and the pig price has reached a new low in recent years. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms and the recovery of demand [5]. - The potential increase in the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in Indonesia and the decrease in the production of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 10 are positive for palm oil. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - The supply - demand pattern of domestic soybeans remains weak. The price of domestic soybeans has stabilized and rebounded, but the upside space is limited [6]. - The short - term methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 2390 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicates strengthened economic momentum, which is bearish for long - term bonds in the medium term. In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [8]. - The short - term soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at the 1310 level. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - The short - term PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at the 6965 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. After the interest - rate cut is realized, it may follow the expected - realization trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [10]. - The geopolitical risk, especially the concern about Russian crude oil supply, supports the crude oil market, but the pressure of supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress oil prices for a long time. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - term trading should be cautious [12]. - The weekly production of PTA may gradually recover. The overall situation is that the supply is at a medium - low level and the demand shows seasonal strength. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The rubber market is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a fluctuating view [13]. Summary by Product Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the daily coke output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.88 to 46.6 (in million tons), the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.62% to 85.93%, the coke inventory increased by 9.58 to 633.29 (in million tons), the available days of coke decreased by 0.42 to 11.29 days, the coking coal inventory decreased by 2.03 to 793.73 (in million tons), the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.28 to 12.81 days, the pulverized coal injection inventory decreased by 5.60 to 415.49 (in million tons), and the available days of pulverized coal injection decreased by 0.62 to 12.14 days [1]. Gold - The US Senate plans to vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will participate in the subsequent interest - rate decision - making of the Fed [1]. Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13849.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 million tons; the daily port clearance volume is 331.28 million tons, an increase of 13.50 million tons; the number of ships at ports is 100, a decrease of 4 [3]. Rebar - Mysteel research shows that the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points; the steel - mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output is 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of September 12, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.46 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 31.8%, an increase of 0.09%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 194.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 10.31 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit is 21.12 yuan per head, a decrease of 3.22 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 284.29 yuan per head, a decrease of 31.42 yuan per head [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before moving to B50. Currently, the mandatory blending ratio is 40%, and it is planned to increase to 50% next year [5]. Soybeans - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 175 million tons, the same as the August forecast, and Argentina's soybean output will be 48.5 million tons, also the same as the August forecast [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 84.58%, a decrease of 2.05%. The 300,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Guizhou Chitianhua is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.75%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 155.03 million tons, a weekly increase of 12.26 million tons. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol production enterprises is 34.26 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.45 million tons, and the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 25.07 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.94 million tons [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - quality soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, showing a recent weak and fluctuating trend. The weekly soda - ash output is 76.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 179.75 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.35%. The operating rate of float glass is 76.01%, a weekly increase of 0.1 percentage point. The national average price of float glass is 1164 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 61.583 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.33% [9]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous day. The polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 74.83%, a decrease of 1.78% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 50.86%, a weekly increase of 0.63 percentage points. The commercial inventory of polypropylene is 83.66 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.32 million tons. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is 65.5 million tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Silver - The preliminary value of the US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.9%, rising for two consecutive months [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 416 compared with the previous week and decreased by 72 compared with the same period last year. The US proposes to urge G7 allies to impose a tariff of up to 100% on the purchase of Russian oil [11][12]. PTA - The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises this week is 34.9%, a week - on - week increase of 6.8%. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises is 39.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production is - 491.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 122.3 yuan/ton [12]. Rubber - The price of Thai cup lump rubber decreased by 0.5 Thai baht/kg to 51.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price remained firm at 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the price difference between cup lump rubber and glue widened to 4.5 Thai baht/kg. Some areas in southern Thailand still have rainfall, and precipitation in Hainan affects rubber tapping, slowing down the new - rubber supply. The state - owned glue purchase price is 14400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of some private enterprises is 16000 - 16400 yuan/ton. Malaysia's natural - rubber exports in July decreased by 22.8% year - on - year to 372,000 tons and increased by 25.2% month - on - month [13].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】全球央行储备格局将迎来里程碑式巨变。资 管机构宏观策略师塔维·科斯塔近日发布一组数据显示，除美 联储外，全球央行储备中黄金占比自1996年以来首次超越美国 国债。这宣告了黄金正式登顶全球央行储备资产。评：近期黄 金的持续上涨，央行持续购金是重要原因。市场对9月降息完全 定价，但是预期兑现后或出现反转行情。在降息兑现之前，仍 然为偏多走势，但需要注意节奏。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能 利用率为82.7%，环比增6.9%。原煤日均产量185.6万吨，环比 增15.6万吨，原煤库存473.2万吨，环比减1.6万吨 ，精煤日均 产量72.8万吨，环比增3.5万吨，精煤库存254.5万吨，环比减 13.6万吨。评：综合来看，焦煤内外供应皆有恢复。需求方 面，上周焦钢企业面临限产，本周下游开工率将有恢复。下游 按需采购为主，现货市场成交一般，等待下游旺季补库，盘面 低位小幅反弹，建议短线区间操作。 投资咨询中心 2025年09月12日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投 ...