期货研究报告 1、市场回顾与展望：本周焦煤、焦炭市场冲高回落运行。焦企经过首轮涨价利润修复，整体开工平稳。 区域内煤矿生产整体稳定，随着春节临近，部分煤矿陆续开始停产放假，产量有所收缩，而下游焦企冬储补 库基本结束，采购积极性转弱；下游方面，由于钢厂利润情况不佳，且下游工地陆续停工，钢材成交量明显 缩减，市场供需压力增大，铁水复产进度缓慢。 展望：国内煤矿临近假期产量将逐渐下滑，进口煤预计同样受春节影响而保持回落，反观其需求端仍有 支撑，预计基本面将保持健康，盘面受资金情绪影响预计宽幅震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2399.35 | 2335.53 | 63.82 | 2.73% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 976.22 | 960.65 | 15.57 | 1.62% | 周度 | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 228 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, driven by precious metals, the non - ferrous metals sector experienced a panic - driven sharp decline. On February 2nd, Shanghai copper hit the daily limit down, with a decline of about 9%. The nomination of the new Fed chair led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's credit and significant fluctuations in market sentiment. There are differences in the path of further interest rate cuts, and the market has entered a wait - and - see phase, increasing the volatility of asset prices [2]. - Although copper mine strikes in places like Chile have temporarily subsided, it confirms the fragility of mine production. The long - term structural supply shortage provides a solid bottom support for copper prices. In the short term, affected by the seasonal off - season, downstream production has stopped for holidays, and spot trading has stagnated. However, in the long run, the new energy transformation and AI infrastructure construction offer potential, and China's non - ferrous metals industry association's plan to improve the copper resource reserve system proves copper's strategic importance [2]. - The panic - driven sharp decline in copper prices this week was mainly due to profit - taking by long positions after the previous extreme increase and liquidity踩踏. Subsequently, the market entered a volatile repair phase with high volatility. With unclear macro - level guidance, pressure from the off - season on the demand side, and supply - side support, copper prices are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The non - ferrous metals sector had a panic - driven sharp decline last week, with Shanghai copper hitting the daily limit down on February 2nd. The new Fed chair's nomination led to market sentiment fluctuations and a wait - and - see attitude. The supply side has long - term structural support, while the demand side is affected by the off - season in the short term. Copper prices are expected to be volatile before the holiday [2]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - The report mentions that the latest US economic data and downstream demand recovery are factors to watch. It also provides weekly data on various copper - related indicators, such as the electrolytic copper price in Shanghai decreased by 4.58% week - on - week, the electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai increased by 117.86% week - on - week, and the LME copper inventory increased by 4.74% week - on - week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Futures Market Review**: The report includes graphs of the Shanghai copper price trend, London copper price trend, and the Shanghai - London copper ratio (without excluding exchange rates) [5][6][8]. - **Supply Situation Analysis**: It presents graphs related to copper concentrate forward spot prices, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, etc. [13]. - **Demand Situation Analysis**: Graphs about 1 electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization, and refined copper rod trading volume are provided [15][17]. - **Inventory Situation Analysis**: Graphs of electrolytic copper spot inventory and the inventory of three major futures exchanges are included [22].

2026年02月09日 周报 钢材：市场成交平淡，节前震荡为主 期货研究报告 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周市场进入典型的春节前运行模式，价格小幅震荡，基本面呈现边际转弱的特 征。临近春节，市场已提前进入假期状态，市场成交统计暂停，库存持续累积。同时，原燃料价格也承压运 行，尤其铁矿石价格高位回调。 展望：2026年春节后钢材行业面临高库存与弱需求双重压力。制造业用钢需求韧性支撑热轧、冷轧供需 平衡，但建筑钢材受房地产低迷及复工缓慢影响，需求恢复乏力。供应端因低利润和订单压力，复产节奏偏 缓，增量有限。库存压力显著，去库难度大，虽宏观政策提供支撑，但冬储意愿低迷，投机需求缺失，钢价 上涨动力不足。预计节后市场价格重心温和下移，关注3月中下旬需求回暖情况。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 钢材 单位 最新一周 上一期 周度环比变化量 周度环比变化率 频率 钢厂日均铁水产量 万吨 228.58 227.98 0.6 0.26% 周度 螺纹钢厂库存 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-PVC】 华东SG-5型PVC 4760元/吨，环比上日-90元 /吨；PVC周产能利用率78.93%，上升0.19%；PVC社会库存 120.64万吨，环比增加2.45%；全国电石法PVC生产企业平均毛 利-744元/吨；全国乙烯法PVC生产企业平均毛利21元/吨；国内 PVC管材样本企业开工37%，周环比持平。评：PVC生产企业假期 预期稳定生产，开工及产量高位稳增，行业库存快速进入节日 累库模式，内需处于传统淡季，下游开工弱稳，春节临近，部 分下游逐步放假，市场销售节后订单为主，原料电石价格预期 较稳。预计短期PVC市场价格震荡略偏弱。 【短评-黄金】伊朗与美国在阿曼举行的核谈判结束，双方 就继续对话达成共识。双方在阐明各自立场和诉求的同时，同 意在与各自政府进行磋商后，就下一轮对话作出决定。伊朗外 交部长阿拉格齐称，本轮美伊磋商是"良好开端"。评：美伊 谈判进行中，避险情绪减弱，利空黄金。美财长对美联储缩表 发表言论，给贵金属市场以稳定信心。黄金中期依然看高位震 荡，关注地缘扰动。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月09日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiumin ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel本周统计523座炼焦煤样本矿山数 据，原煤日产192.5万吨，环比减少5.3万吨。其中山西原煤日 产111.2万吨，环比减少4.5万吨。新增停产煤矿27座，涉及产 能2520万吨。新增复产煤矿1座，产能60万吨。评：整体来看， 焦煤基本面无明显变化，相对利好或有三方面：其一是下游冬 储仍在进行，对焦煤现货带来一定支撑；其二是春节临近，煤 矿有提前停产放假的预期；其三是中东局势紧张，原油地缘溢 价带动能源类商品走强。不过，缺乏国内政策面和焦煤基本面 支撑，焦煤期货依然缺乏持续上涨的动能，预计近期价格仍将 维持区间运行。 【短评-黄金】美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将 通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认 为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高 位。评：美联储官员讲话引发市场对美联储暂不降息的预期， 黄金再度下跌。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐率领的代表团抵达阿曼 首都马斯喀特，将出席与美国代表团举行的核问题谈判。地缘 扰动或有所缓解，黄金支持力量减弱。关注今晚非农数据，贵 金属市场波动或进一步加剧，黄金短期偏空，中期依然看高位 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Before the new OPEC+ policy is introduced in March, the oil market will mainly follow geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] - The economic downward pressure in the US increases, which is bearish for silver. Silver may fluctuate passively following gold, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] - The short - term downward space of hog prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] - The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the sentiment of the oil market. The short - term palm oil price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] - In the short term, the steel price may continue to run in a narrow - range oscillation [4] - Affected by supply pressure, the soybean meal price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] - The silicon iron futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] - The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] - The methanol market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [6] - The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] - The soda ash market is expected to maintain an oscillating operation in the short term [7] - The PTA market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly, and it is in a short - term transition [8] - The short - term PVC market price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] - The rubber market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] - The gold market may experience increased fluctuations in the short term, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] - The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate and repair in the short term to find a new balance [10] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for new drivers [10] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82%. US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day on January 30. The resumption and cancellation of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation affected the oil price. Before the new OPEC+ policy in March, the market follows geopolitical fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [1] Silver - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than expected. The economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold's passive fluctuations, being short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [1] Hog - On February 3, the national wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% compared with the previous day, and the price of eggs decreased by 1.3%. The national hog price mainly declined yesterday due to increased slaughter and insufficient demand. The short - term downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization or short - long the far - month contracts [3] Palm Oil - From January 1 - 31, 2026, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 13.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The new US biofuel tax credit policy boosts the oil market sentiment. The short - term price will maintain a high - level oscillation with an upward - shifted price center [3] Rebar - On February 4, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. With the cold air moving south and the approaching Spring Festival, the steel market activity decreased. The short - term steel price may continue to oscillate in a narrow range [4] Soybean Meal - On February 4, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased steadily. The market stocking sentiment is weak, and the supply is abundant. The price will correct in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious [4] Silicon Iron - The starting rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.09% week - on - week, and the daily output increased by 0.14%. The market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [5] Iron Ore - From January 26 to February 1, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at 45 ports decreased. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The demand side is weak, and the futures price will continue to oscillate in a range in the short term [5] Methanol - The methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang increased. The port inventory decreased, and the production enterprise inventory also decreased. The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and the downstream demand decreases. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Long - term Treasury Bond - The central bank requires to strengthen financial services and coordinate monetary and fiscal policies. The bond market may continue to oscillate in the short term [7] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash is stable. The output increased slightly, and the inventory increased. The float glass start - up increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] PTA - The polyester inventory increased slightly. There may be no new PTA maintenance plans in February. The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to accumulate inventory significantly. The cost side has high - volatility crude oil [8] PVC - The PVC price increased, the production capacity utilization rate increased, and the social inventory increased. The supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8] Rubber - The Thai rubber raw material price is stable. The natural rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire decreased in January 2026. The domestic rubber inventory increased. The market will operate in a phased oscillation, and short - term trading is recommended [9] Gold - The US January ADP new employment is far lower than expected. The release of non - farm payrolls and CPI data may increase the market volatility. Gold is short - term bearish and mid - term in high - level oscillation [9] Copper - Chile's official institution raises the 2026 copper price forecast. The supply is tight, and the demand is promising. The short - term price will continue to oscillate and repair [10] Aluminum - The global alumina production shows regional differentiation. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [10]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息 不止100个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。 不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标 之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。 评：美联储内部依然存在诸多分歧，市场开始推测沃什上台之 后的政策变动情况。美国政府停摆危机解除，或提升风险偏 好。白银或跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注黄 金、白银相互影响。 【短评-PTA】1月PTA月均负荷在77.2%附近，较12月提升 3.9%，较去年同期下降2.3%。目前PTA负荷至76.6%。评：2月来 看，新凤鸣原计划有套装置存检修计划，不过目前推迟。2月 PTA可能无新增检修计划，而需求端在春节前后，终端面临放 假，聚酯负荷降至年内低点，PTA供需预期偏弱，预计大幅累 库。成本端，PX供需预期偏弱，成本端原油高波动。PTA短线过 渡。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月04日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：ca ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel统计全国230家独立焦企样本：产能 利用率为70.75%，减0.66%；焦炭日均产量49.51万吨，减0.46 万吨； 焦炭库存43.99万吨， 增1.74万吨； 炼焦煤总库 存 1035.34万吨，增40.13万吨；焦煤可用天数15.7天，增0.75 天。评：焦炭供应受环保及利润影响难有明显增量，而下游钢 厂复产预期仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，现货提涨落 地后或暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。 【短评-白银】美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数升至52.6，远高 于预期的48.5，创2022年8月以来新高，主要受新订单和产出稳 健增长的提振。评：美国经济数据持续向好，对白银基本面存 在一定支撑，但近期白银受黄金影响较大，美元指数持续反 弹，利空黄金，白银短期或跟随黄金波动，中期暂看高位震 荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月03日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nz ...

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 生猪期货：底部企稳，弱势难改 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）2026年1月26日—2月2日生猪期现呈现 "先跌后弱反弹"，现货外三元 均价自12.93 元/公斤回落至12.33元/公斤（周跌4.6%），核心矛盾是春节前集团集中出栏与终端备货节奏 错配，叠加养殖端挺价与屠宰承接谨慎的博弈，价格低位支撑显现但难改弱势。 供需：规模猪企月度计划冲刺，大体重猪源集中出栏，小体重生猪提前释放，短期供应增幅超需求回 暖速度。春节备货窗口收窄，屠宰端备货不及预期，白条走货平淡，价格传导脱节，难以支撑价格大幅反 弹。成本及利润：自繁自养盈利约96元/头，外购仔猪育肥盈利约48元/头，利润空间压缩，养殖端抗风险 能力减弱，进一步出栏变现意愿增强。 展望：区间震荡（高概率）：节前备货进入尾声，集中出栏压力显现，期现维持窄幅波动，北强南弱 格局延续，价格弹性受限。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market remained stable. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coking enterprises improved, and their enthusiasm for production increased. Some steel mills with low inventories still had demand for coke procurement. Currently, coking enterprises are actively shipping, and there is no obvious contradiction between coke supply and demand. Entering February, the coking coal market will enter the Spring Festival holiday period, with market activity dropping to zero. Mines will be on holiday and stop production, and traders will close, leading the market to gradually turn cold. The fundamentals of coking coal remain healthy, and prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival [2] Summary According to the Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market remained stable. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coking enterprises improved, and their enthusiasm for production increased. Some steel mills with low inventories still had demand for coke procurement. Currently, coking enterprises are actively shipping, and there is no obvious contradiction between coke supply and demand. Entering February, the coking coal market will enter the Spring Festival holiday period, with market activity dropping to zero. Mines will be on holiday and stop production, and traders will close, leading the market to gradually turn cold. The fundamentals of coking coal remain healthy, and prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The total inventory of coking coal was 23.3553 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 652,000 tons or 2.87%. The total inventory of coke was 9.6065 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 215,000 tons or 2.29%. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 2.2798 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,200 tons or 0.05%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was -55 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan/ton or -16.67% [4] Futures Market Review - The report provides a 5-day intraday chart of the main contracts of coking coal and coke, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [6] Spot Market Review - The report provides charts of the average price of various coking coal types, the self-pickup price of Mongolian coking coal, the summary price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke, the first-grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel for metallurgical coke, the basis of coking coal, and the basis of coke, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [8][11][15] Fundamental Data - The report provides charts of the daily average output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, with data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [19][21][24]