1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure from domestic raw material production increases and lackluster demand. Tire companies face shipment pressure, with under - performing foreign trade orders. In November, some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the overall capacity utilization rate. Key factors to track include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [2][28] 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The synthetic rubber market showed a weak trend. The 01 contract opened at 11,125 yuan/ton in October, reached a high of 11,285 yuan/ton, a low of 10,175 yuan/ton, and closed at 10,550 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 560 yuan or 5.04% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price - Influencing Factors 2.1 Butadiene Capacity Expansion - From 2021 - 2025, China's butadiene capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with the growth rate first decreasing and then increasing. In 2025, domestic capacity expansion is concentrated, with the capacity growth rate reaching 14.16%, a five - year high. By the end of 2025, China's total butadiene capacity will reach 7.577 million tons/year [5][6] 2.2 High Butadiene Operating Rate and Import Growth - In October, butadiene production was 457,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.49%. From January to October, production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 66.48%. In September 2025, butadiene imports were 56,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.09%. From January to September, imports were 393,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.8% [7][8][10] 2.3 High Growth in Butadiene Imports - The import volume of butadiene has been growing rapidly, as shown by the data from January - September and September 2025 [10] 2.4 Pressure on Butadiene Prices and Profits - The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly this period, with a 1.67% week - on - week decrease. The theoretical production profits of different butadiene production processes decreased. As of October 29, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 578 yuan/ton from the previous period [13] 2.5 Sufficient Synthetic Rubber Capacity Expansion and High Production Growth - New synthetic rubber capacities have been put into production, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year nickel/neodymium - based cis - butadiene rubber capacity and Zhejiang Petrochemical's 100,000 - ton device. In September, synthetic rubber production was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.50%. From January to September, production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.20% [15][17] 2.6 High Growth in Imports of Natural and Synthetic Rubber (Including Latex) - In September 2025, China imported 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, imports were 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase year - on - year [19] 2.7 Tire Production Growth Slows - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, production was 899.386 million pieces, a 1.5% increase year - on - year, far lower than the 9.59% growth rate in 2024. The export market growth rate declined, and the replacement market performed poorly [22][25] 2.8 Tire Inventory Needs to be Reduced and Operating Rate Increase is Limited - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Tire finished - product inventory needs to be reduced [26] 2.9 Weak Supply - Demand Drivers and Synchronous Decline of Raw Materials and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Due to weak supply - demand drivers, raw materials and cis - butadiene rubber prices declined synchronously, with butadiene having a larger and faster decline [27] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain weak due to supply pressure on the raw material side and lack of demand - side support. Key factors to monitor include the bottoming point and timing of butadiene prices, the price spread between natural and synthetic rubber, and the performance of natural rubber after the harvest season [28]

期价反弹空间有限 摘 要： 行情展望： 供应端，养殖端出栏或增加，规模企业增量，散户出 栏较积极，供应端压力或增加。需求端，终端消费有所恢 复，需求好转，但幅度有限，短线难以形成强有力支撑。 综合来看，主流价格区间或维持11.4-12.5 元/公斤 的水平。生猪市场供应端压力或增加，需求无明显增量， 因此价格或继续下行。操作上建议反弹后高空。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控 动态等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 2.供应情况分析 请务必阅 ...

基本面分析：供应端，吕梁个别煤矿因搬家倒面减产、临汾 整体产量微增因前期检修、井下过构造等煤矿恢复正常，长治除 前期部分煤矿因井下工作面问题产量有所减少外，其余多维持正 常生产，整体产量较上周无明显变化。下游方面，钢厂利润不 佳，对于高价原料接受程度较低，而焦企在高成本支撑下仍有进 一步提涨计划，但能否落地存在博弈空间。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 双焦期货周度报告 2025年11月10日 国内供应难增 四轮提涨再启 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周期货市场焦煤、焦炭价格偏弱运行。焦煤现 货市场稳中偏强运行。第三轮焦炭上涨于5日落地执行，湿熄上 涨50元/吨，干熄焦上涨55元/吨，不分顶装和捣固；且主流焦企 纷纷于周五开启第四轮提涨，捣鼓涨幅50-55元/吨，顶装涨幅 70-75元/吨，要求10日执行。 一、本周行情回顾 本周期货市场焦煤、焦炭价格偏弱运行。焦煤现货市场稳中偏强运行。第三轮焦炭上涨于5日落地执行，湿熄 上涨50元/吨，干熄焦上涨55元/吨，不分顶装和捣固；且主流焦企纷纷于周五开启第四轮提涨，捣鼓涨幅50-55元 /吨，顶装涨幅70-75元/吨，要求10日执行。 ...

投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 钢材期货周度报告 2025年11月10日 需求淡季承压 盘面震荡回落 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周全国钢材价格小幅下跌，虽弱现实格局继续 压制钢价，加上宏观利好预期降温，市场情绪平平，市场活跃度 小幅下降，好在原材支撑仍存。截至11月7日，全国主要城市 20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3225元/吨，周环比跌35元/吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度继续减弱，但铁水产量略有上升，品 种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于淡季效应和季节性天气影响， 终端需求释放力度逐渐减弱，各品种市场成交有所下降。成本 端：由于铁矿石价格小幅下跌，废钢价格稳中下跌，焦炭价格大 幅上涨，生产成本支撑维持韧性。 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢材期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities having various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external policies [1][3][4]. - Some commodities like焦煤,黄金, and白银 have relatively positive outlooks in the short - to - long term, while others such as沥青, rubber, and methanol are expected to be weak [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **焦煤**: Domestic supply is disrupted, import supplement is limited, and the spot market is stable and slightly strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot is short - term easy to rise and hard to fall, while the futures may oscillate [1]. - **螺纹钢**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but the cost support from winter storage and potential policy benefits may lead to a low - level wide - range oscillation [3]. - **铁矿石**: After the peak of arrivals, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance. The price may oscillate and strengthen after a rapid decline [4]. - **白银**: Short - term oscillation and long - term bullish due to the changing risk sentiment and the divergence from gold [8]. **Agricultural Products** - **生猪**: Supply pressure is large, terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the price has short - term downward pressure [5]. - **棕榈油**: The production reduction expectation fails, and the supply pressure restricts the price increase. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [5]. - **菜粕**: Supply is rigidly short, and the price decline risk is reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **沥青**: Cost support weakens, and the off - peak demand increases the downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **橡胶**: Demand lacks substantial benefits, and the trade barriers and inventory issues lead to a weak outlook [9]. - **甲醇**: The port inventory accumulates slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - **纯碱**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. **Others** - **长期国债**: Economic recovery does not interfere with monetary policy, and the bond market has increasing positive factors. It is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [10]. - **塑料**: Supply is high, demand is off - peak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The remaining period of this year for crude oil is under pressure, and it should be treated with a weakening trend [1]. - Gold may experience high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and the downward space is limited in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are strengthening, and it is expected to have a short - term strong and volatile trend [3]. - Steel prices may have a narrow - range fluctuation after a partial rebound in the short - term [3]. - Coking coal futures are running near the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on supply should be focused on [4]. - There is a local rebound expectation for hog prices, but there is still downward pressure in the short - term [4]. - Soybean No. 1 will have a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and Soybean No. 2 will have a strengthening and oscillating trend [5]. - Palm oil will have a bottom adjustment in the short - term [6]. - Rubber should be treated with a weakening and oscillating trend [6]. - PTA should be traded in the short - term as its fundamentals lack significant driving forces [6]. - Treasury bond futures have increasing positive factors and a medium - term oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. - Silver will have a short - term oscillation and a long - term strengthening trend [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [9]. - PVC is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [10]. Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price for Asia in December. The export volume of some crude oils in November is expected to be slightly lower than that in October. The market is worried about oversupply, and European and American futures prices have fallen [1]. Gold - There are large differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The decline of US stocks and the risk - aversion sentiment are positive for precious metals [1]. Lithium Carbonate - The market supply and demand are booming. The total market inventory has decreased, and the sentiment in the mid - stream has improved. The latest quotation of Australian mines has strengthened again [3]. Rebar - This week, the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, and the inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Most steel mills are in losses and are expected to increase maintenance and production reduction [3]. Coking Coal - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change recently. The upward driving force comes from anti - involution and the improvement of Sino - US trade relations. The multi - empty game in the market has intensified [4]. Hog - Hog prices are stable and strong in the north and weakly stable in the south. There is a local rebound expectation under the supply - demand game [4]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year. The purchase price of domestic new - season soybeans has increased, but the downstream demand suppresses the price to some extent [5]. Palm Oil - The production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 5 increased compared with the same period last month. There is an expectation of production reduction in November, and the domestic demand has been significantly boosted recently [6]. Rubber - The inventory has increased this week, and the overall raw material inventory is at a low level. The demand side lacks substantial positive factors, especially the decline of synthetic rubber prices [6]. PTA - The polyester start - up rate is stable. The domestic supply has increased, and the demand side is stable. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory accumulation [6]. Short - term Treasury Bond - The money market interest rates have mostly declined, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are positive for the bond market [7]. Silver - The US federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about the future monetary policy [7]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly [8]. Soda Ash - The production of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up of float glass is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased [9]. PVC - The start - up of domestic PVC production enterprises has increased, and the production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory has increased [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international oil price continues to decline due to increased US crude oil inventories, and it will remain under pressure for the rest of the year, with the oversupply pressure slightly easing in Q1 next year [1]. - Gold may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term and has limited downside space in the short term, affected by the US government shutdown, Sino - US relations, and the high - level US dollar index [2]. - Synthetic rubber will run weakly due to supply increments and demand - side constraints [4]. - PTA has weak fundamental drivers with clear supply increments, stable demand, and a slightly accumulating balance sheet [4]. - Iron ore prices have limited upside space under the background of loose supply and pressured demand [5]. - Coking coal's upward drive weakens after the macro - level positive factors are realized [5]. - Steel prices are expected to decline slightly in the short term due to approaching off - season and potential supply contractions [6]. - Live hog prices may still decline after a rebound due to large supply pressure and unchanged terminal demand [6]. - Palm oil will run weakly in the short term due to unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices have a lower risk of decline due to supply shortages, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [8]. - Silver will oscillate with a bullish bias due to positive economic data in the US and pressure from the rising US dollar index [8]. - Long - term treasury bonds will oscillate with a bullish bias in the medium term due to economic pressure and positive factors from the central bank [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Caustic soda's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - As of October 31, US total crude oil inventories (including strategic reserves) were 830.763 million barrels, an increase of 5.7 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude inventories were 421.168 million barrels, an increase of 5.2 million barrels; gasoline inventories were 206.009 million barrels, a decrease of 4.73 million barrels [1]. - US daily crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels as of October 31, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 151,000 barrels from the same period last year [1]. Gold - The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record, and may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points [2]. Synthetic Rubber - From January to October 2025, domestic butadiene production was 4.472 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.5%; in October, the production was 457,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.47% [4]. - In October, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.39% [4]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, with POY at 14 - 23 days, FDY at 12 - 22 days, and DTY at 13 - 25 days [4]. Iron Ore - From October 27 to November 2, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 3.3141 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2298 million tons [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 37.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; the daily output of clean coal was 275,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; and the clean coal inventory was 2.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,000 tons [5]. Steel - As of a certain period, the national building materials social inventory was 638,400 tons, an increase of 2,180 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 347,750 tons, a decrease of 8,350 tons; and the production was 397,070 tons, an increase of 1,470 tons [6]. Live Hogs - On November 5, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.19 yuan/kg, a 0.9% increase from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - In October, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 2.07 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.31%, reaching an eight - year high [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 44th week of 2025, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of China was 514,800 tons, a decrease of 16,600 tons from the previous week [8]. Silver - The US October ISM services PMI rose 2.4 points to 52.4, the new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, the service payment price index rose to 70, and the employment index rose to 48.2 [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - China's October S&P services PMI was 52.6 (previous value 52.9), and the composite PMI was 51.8 (previous value 52.5) [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the weekly production was 757,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%; and the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,082 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate was 86.73%, an increase of 1.09%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the port sample inventory was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons; and the sample enterprise production inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons [10]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 442,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84% [11].

Key Points by Commodity Gold - US government shutdown continues, but with Sino-US relations easing and the US potentially pausing tariff measures, risk aversion weakens. The rising US dollar index is negative for gold. Gold may experience high-level oscillations in the medium term. Monitor the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] 纯碱 - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable at 1,269 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 757,600 tons, a 2.3% increase. Total inventory is 1.702 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.01%. The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with some plant shutdowns reducing supply. The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1,200. It is recommended to wait and see or consider short - term long positions on dips [1] Iron Ore - From October 27th to November 2nd, global iron ore shipments decreased by 174,500 tons to 3.2138 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 166,700 tons to 2.7592 million tons. Supply is becoming more abundant in the near - term, while demand is weakening due to production cuts in Tangshan. There is a possibility of production resumption this week. Port inventory is still increasing, and steel mills' inventory has decreased significantly, with a potential for accelerated restocking. Ore prices are expected to decline further, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [3] Rebar - On November 4th, domestic steel prices continued to fall. In November, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance and production cuts, and environmental restrictions are in place in the north. As the market enters the off - season, supply and demand are both expected to weaken. Raw material prices are under pressure, and steel mills are on the verge of profitability. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4] Manganese Silico - The national average capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 43.28%, a 0.09% increase from last week. Daily output increased by 655 tons to 29,830 tons. The cost of manganese ore may have limited upward potential. Demand for manganese silico is expected to weaken as steel production may decline in the future. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory pressure persists. The price of manganese silico may not have strong upward momentum in the short term [5] Palm Oil - Last week, the narrowing price gap between soybean oil and palm oil led to increased purchases of palm oil, resulting in a decrease in inventory. As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 555,000 tons. The market expects an increase in palm oil inventory in Malaysia in October, which is negative for palm oil prices. Palm oil is expected to remain weak in the short term [6] Rapeseed Meal - As of November 1st, the weekly operating rate of domestic rapeseed processing enterprises increased by 0.49 percentage points to 1.47%. Weekly rapeseed crushing volume increased by 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons. There is an expectation of zero processing volume this week. Supply shortages reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to take long positions at low prices and monitor Sino - Canadian trade policies [6] Live Pigs - On November 4th, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% to 18.02 yuan/kg. The high - priced pork has low acceptance from consumers, and the number of second - fattening pigs has decreased. As enterprises resume normal slaughter, pig prices are expected to decline slowly in the short term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs shows a weak technical pattern, and farmers can consider hedging according to their slaughter plans [7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On November 5th, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation, which is an equal - amount roll - over. The loose money supply is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the medium term, but trading is becoming more difficult [7] Silver - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%. The rising US dollar index due to positive Sino - US trade relations is putting pressure on precious metals. Silver is expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the long term, with limited downward space [8] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in Northwest China decreased by 8,500 tons to 23,900 tons. The market price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,082 yuan/ton. Production capacity utilization increased by 1.09 percentage points to 86.73%. Port inventory decreased slightly, while enterprise inventory increased. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2,145. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China's drawn polypropylene decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 6,536 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization increased by 0.61 percentage points to 78.62%. Commercial inventory decreased by 51,300 tons to 874,000 tons. Supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream orders have improved slightly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6,570. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10] Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.52 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. China and Russia agreed to cooperate in the standardization of the oil and gas industry. Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure for the rest of the year and may ease slightly in the first quarter of next year [11] PX - This week, domestic PTA production increased by 44,800 tons to 1.4503 million tons. Capacity utilization increased by 2.40 percentage points to 78.38%. Social inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 3.1356 million tons. The restart of previously shut - down PTA plants has increased supply, and the market is expected to have a slight inventory build - up. PX prices are under pressure, and the overall fundamentals of PTA are weak [11] Rubber - In Thailand, cup - lump prices decreased, while latex prices increased. From January to September, global natural rubber production increased by 2.3%, while consumption decreased by 1.5%. Indonesia's exports to China increased significantly. China's rubber inventory is at a low level, and raw material prices are expected to be firm. However, tire enterprises are facing shipment pressure, and some plan to reduce production in November. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The divergence within the Fed has increased, making the December interest rate cut more uncertain. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the safe - haven sentiment has cooled significantly, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - For rubber, although the overall shipment pressure remains high in November and the utilization rate of production capacity is restricted, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts in China provide medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, the end of the traditional peak demand season, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - The coke spot market is running strongly. Although the coking profit is under pressure and the steel mill's production is restricted, the hot metal is expected to rebound after a short - term decline, and the third round of price increase has started [5]. - For silicon iron, the high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. - The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6]. - For silver, the short - term is in a shock, and it is still bullish in the long term due to the increasing economic downward pressure in the US and the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short term due to the significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October and the expected inventory accumulation [8]. - The price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PX should be treated with a shock perspective. Although the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level and the PXN processing fee is under pressure, the stable crude oil provides support for the lower price [11]. - Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and the price may be in a shock state. Only when the geopolitical conflict intensifies can the price center rise [13]. - Polypropylene is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - Soda ash is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Gold**: The divergence within the Fed makes the December interest rate cut uncertain. Sino - US relations ease, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - **Silver**: The US economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver in the short term, but the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts is bullish in the long term. It is in a shock - bullish state with limited downward space [7]. - **Steel (including rebar)**: Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - **Coke**: The coke spot market is running strongly. The third round of price increase has started, and the futures price is expected to be stable [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: The high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The domestic market is weak in the short term [8]. - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The overall shipment pressure is high in November, but the low inventory in China provides medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PX**: It should be treated with a shock perspective. The high load of Asian and domestic PX and the pressure on PXN processing fees coexist with the support from stable crude oil [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price has stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and it may be in a shock state [13]. - **Polypropylene**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Soda Ash**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6].

避险情绪减弱，贵金属走势或分化 摘 要： 中美领导人釜山会晤后，中美贸易领域的矛盾按下暂停键，经 济避险情绪略有缓解。美元指数持续反弹，整体施压贵金属，但是 买盘力量依然有支撑，贵金属存在反弹动力，特别是白银，存在较 强的补涨需求。目前美国政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济 的数据无法进一步获得，从美联储官员的表述来看，美国经济依然 有一定韧性，但下行压力增加。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"，目前美国政府依然处于停摆之中，政府停摆尚 未结束，美联储关于 12 月降息分歧再度加大，上周多名美联储官 员反对 12 月降息，使得未来关于降息的节奏变得更加不确定性。 给贵金属的走势带来波动因素。由于政府停摆，可以参考的经济数 据有限。美国 9 月 CPI 同比上涨 3%，创今年 1 月以来最高，但低于 市场预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 环比放缓至 0.2%，也低于市场预期。9 月服务业通胀放缓至 2021 年 11 月以来的最弱水平。数据公布后， 市场已经完全消化美联储年内剩余时间两次降息25个基点的预期， 但近期该预期有所波动。 离岸人民币汇率主要被动跟随 ...