Group 1: Report Core Views - The ongoing US government shutdown and rumors of lay - offs increase the country's political turmoil. Although the dollar index is weak, which may provide some upward momentum for gold, the market is at a high level, so investors should be cautious about chasing high [1] - Natural rubber is in a weak downward trend, with the spot being relatively strong and the basis converging. After the rainfall in the producing areas eases, the supply is expected to increase significantly. The downstream tire enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, and the short - term driving force is weak. However, the overall low annual output and low inventory in China limit the downside [1] - The pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province has entered the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the province will start the purchase and storage of frozen pork. At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. Although the price has a short - term small rebound due to the support of second - fattening, the rebound is not sustainable, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased, but India's palm oil imports decreased in September. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on dips [4] - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, while the soybean meal inventory decreased. The domestic new - season soybean market is stable, with price polarization in the Northeast. It is recommended to hold existing long positions [5] - The market is worried about oversupply and the impact of trade tensions on demand. The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the fundamental driving force is weak [5] - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that the US economy has changed little, and consumer spending has declined slightly. The expectation of Fed rate cuts provides some support for precious metals. Although the weak US economy is negative for silver, the strength of gold creates conditions for short - squeezing. Silver has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high [6] - China's inflation data has rebounded, indicating continuous economic improvement, which is bearish for the medium - and long - term bond market. Due to the joint effect of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, the operation of the bond market is more difficult, and it is recommended to use a volatile mindset [7] - The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand is dragged down by tariff policies, and the terminal demand is entering the off - season. The impact of downstream demand expectations and crude oil on PTA prices is significant [7] - PVC supply is at a high level, and the social inventory is on the rise. The cost support is weak in the near term, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8] - The profit and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are relatively stable, but the downstream orders are still weak, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly decreased, the demand is flat, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] Group 2: Specific Product Data Gold - On October 15 local time, the US Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill with a vote of 51 to 44, and 60 votes were required [1] Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup - glue price is 49.65 Thai baht/kg. Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,200 yuan/ton. From January - September 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [1] Pig - On October 15, the average pig - grain ratio in Guangdong Province was 4.98:1, entering the first - level early - warning range of excessive decline [3] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase from the same period last month. India's total vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports were 829,017 tons, significantly down from August [4] Soybean - In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons (6.37%) from the week of September 26, and a 14.29% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons, a decrease of 11.01 million tons (9.26%) from the week of September 26, and a 6.17% increase year - on - year [5] Silver - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that overall economic activity has changed little, consumer spending has declined slightly, and employment levels have remained stable [6] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI rose 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [7] PTA - PTA capacity utilization is 76.46%. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days, with POY inventory at 14 - 23 days, FDY inventory at 12 - 22 days, and DTY inventory at 13 - 25 days [7] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. PVC capacity utilization is 82.63%, a weekly increase of 1.21%. The 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device of Jinyuyuan is expected to end maintenance this week. PVC social inventory is 97.13 million tons, a 1.84% increase month - on - month [8] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,249 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The float glass operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 62.824 million heavy boxes, a 5.84% increase month - on - month. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 11 days, a 4.9% increase month - on - month [9] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6,578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous day. Polypropylene capacity utilization is 77.27%, a decrease of 0.76% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 51.76%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. Polypropylene commercial inventory is 98.52 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.6 million tons. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina polyolefins is 82 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous day [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current crude oil market faces multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and cooling geopolitical risks, with weak fundamental driving forces [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut still exists, providing some support for precious metals. However, the market is at a high level with increasing divergence, so it's advisable to mainly observe [1]. - The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors like inventory changes and US tariff pressure [3]. - For manganese silicon, the cost support is acceptable, but the industry continues to be in a loss state. The demand is affected by trade frictions, and the price may have a downward space after the peak season [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to general post - holiday demand, slow de - stocking, and insufficient cost support [4]. - For live pigs, the short - term pressure on the breeding end to sell still exists, and the space for a sharp rebound is small. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For palm oil, there is strong support, and it's advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [5]. - For domestic soybeans, the situation of increased supply and weak demand continues in the short - term, but the downward space is limited, and it's advisable to try low - buying [6]. - For natural rubber, the current valuation is slightly low, and it's recommended to operate cautiously due to the greater impact of the macro - environment than the fundamentals [6]. - For PTA, the impact of short - term downstream demand expectations and crude oil on the price is large, and the benefits of maintenance are limited [7]. - For silver, it may fluctuate more in the short - term, and it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high [7]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, the operation difficulty is increased, and it's advisable to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and think in a fluctuating way [8]. - For methanol, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes after a pullback [10]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it's recommended to hold short - positions cautiously [11]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, while demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day and 699,000 barrels per day respectively. Russian crude oil exports reached the highest level since June 2023 [1]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible stop to balance - sheet contraction and another 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [1]. Coking Coal - The inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.95% (- 0.05%), and the coking coal inventory was 819.32 (- 69.15) [3]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 44.18% (- 1.50%), and the daily output was 29,490 tons (- 335 tons). The cost support is acceptable, but the industry is in a loss state [3]. Steel - On October 14, domestic steel prices continued to decline. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,224 yuan/ton (- 11 yuan/ton) [4]. Live Pigs - On October 14, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.48 yuan/kg (+ 0.1%), and the price of eggs was 7.60 yuan/kg (- 2.1%) [4]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may regulate the export of crude palm oil, and the B50 plan may reduce global edible oil supply. However, the short - term price trend is still supported [5]. Soybeans - Brazil is expected to export 7.31 million tons of soybeans, 2.06 million tons of soybean meal, and 6.46 million tons of corn in October, all higher than last week's expectations [5]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices are firm, and domestic mid - stream inventory is decreasing seasonally. In September, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history [6]. PTA - The PTA load dropped to 75.4%. The new device of Xin Fengming was postponed due to low processing fees, and a new Indian device is planned to be put into production [7]. Silver - The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (+ 0.2 percentage points) [7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Premier Li Qiang emphasized increasing counter - cyclical adjustment and expanding domestic demand [8]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, downstream demand has rebounded, and port inventory has accumulated. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1,256 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton), the inventory increased by 5.84%, and the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased by 4.9% [10]. PVC - The PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63% (+ 1.21%), social inventory increased by 1.84%, and the average profit of production enterprises was negative [11].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, investment opportunities, and risk factors for each item [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity 1. Coking Coal and Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is 9 yuan/ton, with different regional profits. Coke supply is highly restricted, demand is supported by high - level molten iron, and the fundamentals are healthy. After the festival, coke enterprises' raw material replenishment slows down, and the cost of coal is stable. The spot price is stable after the first price increase, and the futures price follows coking coal fluctuations [1]. 2. Gold - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has risen to 98.3%. Gold and the US dollar index have risen simultaneously, and gold has reached a new high. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upward, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. 3. Iron Ore - From October 6th - 12th, the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased. Iron ore demand remains resilient due to stable molten iron production. Port inventories have slightly increased, and steel mill inventories have significantly decreased. There may be an accelerated replenishment demand, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to build long positions in the context of a possible price correction [3]. 4. Rebar - On October 13th, domestic steel prices fell weakly. After the festival, steel market transactions were poor, and due to large inventory increases during the National Day and potential Sino - US trade frictions, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 5. Live Pigs - As of October 10th, pig - farming profits were in the red and worsening. The national pig price showed a north - up, south - down pattern. There is still pressure on the supply side, and prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [4]. 6. Palm Oil - As of October 10th, the commercial inventory of major oils increased. Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased significantly, and the production - reduction season is approaching, which supports the price. However, trade risks and increased production may suppress the price. There are opportunities for long positions at low prices [4]. 7. Rapeseed Meal - As of October 10th, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased. Due to the loose soybean meal supply and seasonal decline in rapeseed meal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [5]. 8. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - China's foreign trade has been growing steadily, which supports economic resilience. International risk - aversion sentiment has subsided, which is negative for the bond market. Due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, and a volatile mindset is recommended [6]. 9. Silver - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts this year. With the expectation of interest - rate cuts and improved risk appetite, silver prices have risen. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [6]. 10. Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has weakened. Production enterprise inventories have increased, and there are more maintenance devices. Downstream factories are expected to replenish inventory after the holiday, and the cost support is weakening. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. 11. PVC - The price of PVC in East China has decreased. Supply is abundant, social inventories are rising, and downstream demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8]. 12. Glass - The average price of float glass has decreased. The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, downstream orders have recovered but are still weak, and inventories have increased. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 13. Crude Oil - OPEC + production increased in September, and there are uncertainties in global energy demand due to factors such as the US government shutdown and tariff policies. The geopolitical premium has decreased, and the fundamental driving force is weak [10]. 14. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand and Hainan is provided. China's rubber imports increased in September. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Short - term supply is expected to increase, but medium - term supply may be affected by low inventory and upcoming shutdowns in domestic rubber - producing areas [11]. 15. PX - Domestic and Asian PX operating rates are at a relatively high level. Due to the low processing fee of PTA and expected maintenance of PTA devices, PX supply and demand drivers are weak [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that palm oil prices will fluctuate at a low level. Although the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and there is a large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil during the October production season, which suppresses prices, it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Therefore, investors are advised to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review The report presents a chart of the average price trend of 24 - degree palm oil (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of the price trend is provided [4]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis The report shows a chart of China's palm oil import data, but no detailed analysis of the supply situation is given [6]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis The report provides a chart of the statistical average transaction price of palm oil (yuan/ton), but does not offer in - depth analysis of the demand situation [8]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report includes a chart of palm oil import costs and profits (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of cost - profit is presented [11]. 5. Market Outlook The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the increase in risks has led to an enhanced risk - aversion sentiment among funds, resulting in continuous reduction of palm oil positions. The large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the October production season suppress palm oil prices. However, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Thus, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and investors should look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After gold reached a new high above 4000 points, the market believes that the short - term adjustment pressure has increased, but the overall view of the gold market remains bullish. The disagreement within the Fed over interest rate cuts adds more uncertainty to the future upward trend of precious metals. Before the Fed's interest rate cut expectation at the end of the month, precious metals may still have the momentum to rebound, and the operation rhythm needs attention. The precious metals face callback pressure [2][29]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the interest rate cut was implemented, the US dollar index rose significantly, and precious metals had a certain degree of correction. The market is currently trading on the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, a total of 50 basis points. The US government shutdown further strengthened the safe - haven property of precious metals. Gold and silver may rise synchronously driven by the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Trump is negotiating a Gaza cease - fire agreement, which is close to being reached, and the negotiation with Hamas "seems to be going smoothly", and he may go to the Middle East this weekend. - The bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to pass in the Senate. Trump plans to cut some federal programs popular with Democrats. - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly by 0.1 to 55, hitting a 5 - month low but still higher than market expectations. Consumers expect the inflation rate in the next year to be 4.6%, slightly lower than the previous month's estimate of 4.7%. - US Vice - President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban on exports. China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships starting from October 14 in response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding industry [12][14][15]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - Due to the US government shutdown, it is difficult to track US economic data. The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and consumers' inflation expectations decreased slightly. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was lower than expected and below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. There are various expectations for the release of US economic data in the third quarter, but no detailed prediction is made due to the lack of reliable data [16]. 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump is close to reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement. China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships and opposes the US plan to impose a 100% tariff on China. International trade turmoil intensifies, and there is a possibility of further intensification of US tariff policies, increasing the safe - haven sentiment [20]. 3.3 Other Financial Markets - US non - farm employment in August was far lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to a new high since 2021, and the initial jobless claims moving average increased. The US economic downward pressure increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI reached a new high. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. After the interest rate cut in September and the increasing expectation of an interest rate cut in October, high - risk - preference varieties such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [21]. 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. After the holiday, the RMB exchange rate appreciated significantly due to the improvement of domestic economic data such as consumption. However, whether the RMB can have an independent trend needs further observation. Currently, the exchange rate issue has not affected the trend of gold, and the Shanghai gold still basically follows the trend of US gold [25]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The US government shutdown and international political turmoil have pushed up the safe - haven sentiment, driving gold to reach new highs. After gold reached a new high above 4000 points, the short - term adjustment pressure increased. Whether gold can continue to strengthen and drive silver up needs further observation [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized this week. The first round of coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week. The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and downstream replenishment has slowed down. The market is expected to remain volatile in the future [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded. According to the China Index Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. According to the CRIC Research Center, the sales operating amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises reached 25.278 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 22.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. From January to September this year, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [6]. - In September, about 105,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the 58,000 sold in the same period last year [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 94.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 299,140 tons, an increase of 340 tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days from the previous period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Lvliang and Linfen were shut down for 2 - 8 days during the National Day holiday. Except for individual mines in the region for shutdown and maintenance, the impact time was relatively short, and the overall output was relatively stable with little fluctuation. The overall supply was balanced [2]. - Demand side: Coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed the inventory prepared before the festival. Due to the unclear price trend after the festival, the downstream replenishment willingness was cautious, and the overall raw - material inventory was maintained near the safety inventory line. The subsequent steel trend still needs to be observed [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Market outlook: During the holiday, coking enterprises mainly consumed in - plant inventory, and the procurement willingness decreased. The spot coal price was weakly stable. After the festival, coal - mine production will quickly return to normal, but the production level will still be restricted. Although downstream replenishment has slowed down, there is still rigid demand under high molten - iron production. The fundamentals are relatively healthy. The Sino - US tariff war has little impact on the fundamentals, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected that the future price will remain volatile [29]. - Investment strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [2][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a dull and stable trend, with relatively firm prices. The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The domestic soda ash output was 77.08 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.66 thousand tons, a decline of 0.85%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The supply was affected by individual enterprise short - stops, and the demand was weakly stable, with good spot - futures transactions after the holiday [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of October 9, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%. The supply of soda ash this week is expected to remain at a high level, with an overall operating rate of about 88 + %. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the soda - ammonia method was - 76.50 yuan/ton, and that by the ammonia - soda method was - 29.25 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the photovoltaic glass industry, after the National Day holiday, the inventory of sample enterprises rose to 114.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.33%, and the average inventory days were 22.67 days, an increase of 8.17 days compared with September 25. In the float glass industry, as of October 9, the average operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged week - on - week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase. The output is expected to run steadily [16]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 165.98 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday. The inventory of light soda ash was 73.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.24 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 92.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75 million tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of October 10, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 956,961, an increase of 48,812, and the short positions were 1,241,366, an increase of 112,518. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. This week, the domestic soda ash production is expected to remain stable at a high level. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, and the output of downstream float glass is expected to operate steadily. Against the backdrop of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1285 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an expected increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [2][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were oscillating weakly. The SC2512 contract opened at 472 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 463, and closed at 463, with a weekly increase of 17.5 or 3.64% [3]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production. In September, OPEC's production increased by 400,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia's increase of 320,000 barrels per day. Iraq's production is expected to increase in October. OPEC+ countries updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. Voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect of crude oil [3][4]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production is 515 - 520 million tons. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day. Due to the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine, Russia's crude oil exports are approaching a high level. In September, its exports to India increased by 29% to 1.73 million barrels per day, to Turkey increased by 11% to 375,000 barrels per day, and to China decreased by 12% to 1.12 million barrels per day [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending October 3, the US crude oil daily production was 13.629 million barrels, an increase of 124,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week and 229,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last year. The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will build by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. The predicted average price of Brent crude oil next year is $51 per barrel [7]. - **Americas**: The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [13]. - **Inventory**: As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. As of the week ending October 3, US crude oil inventories increased by about 2.8 million barrels, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3 million barrels [14]. - **Consumption**: The IEA has raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and maintained the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day. BP has postponed its forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. As of the four - week period ending October 3, the US refined oil demand was 20.897 million barrels per day on average, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [19][20]. - **Refined oil processing fee**: In the week of September 26, the weekly average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan per ton. The profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 99 yuan per ton [21]. - **Refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery operation rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week. The operation rate of major refineries in China was 62.24%, a decrease of 1.26% from the previous week, and the operation rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06% from the previous week [23]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy OPEC+ is gradually exiting the production cut action, leading to an increase in crude oil supply. On the demand side, the US government shutdown and the expectation of a new round of tariff policies cast a shadow over the global energy demand outlook. Additionally, the partial ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced the geopolitical premium effect included in crude oil. The fundamental driving force is weak [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic consumption market shows strong resilience during the "Double Festival" holiday, with cross - regional personnel flow hitting a record high. A - shares may experience increased short - term volatility but have a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is likely to be in a moderately strong and volatile pattern [2][3] - In the fourth quarter, the probability of incremental holistic counter - cyclical adjustment policies is low, with more focus on structural policies [3] - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is complex, and the bond market's mid - term trend is moderately strong with oscillations and no obvious trend [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic and ample liquidity make bond market operations difficult. The 30 - year treasury bond shows obvious oscillation at the key neckline position [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - From January to August, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than large enterprises. The SME export index in August was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [12][15] - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved. China opposes the US plan to impose a 100% tariff [12][15] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. In December, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 91.7% [14] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a willingness for rational negotiation between Trump and China [14] - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 300 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 88.3 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 390.2 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 300 billion yuan [14] - The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List", and China firmly opposes this [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - The economic endogenous power is strengthening, and the downward pressure is weakening. If counter - cyclical adjustment continues to increase, it will be negative for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspects - In August, the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021. The growth rate of social financing stock increased slightly, and the narrowing gap indicates strengthened economic activities [17] 3.3 Capital Aspects - DR007 has been declining since July 25, reducing capital costs. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and the Fed's rate cut may open space for domestic monetary policy [20] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal are 200 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated [23] 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating increased market attention to stocks. The long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [25] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - A - shares may have increased short - term volatility but a long - term positive trend. The bond market in the fourth quarter is expected to be moderately strong with oscillations [28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the price of live pigs will continue to decline. Although the price has temporarily stopped falling due to the price - holding sentiment of breeders and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage, the supply pressure from breeders still exists. It is recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis In October, the出栏 plans of large - scale breeding enterprises generally increased, and the market supply showed an upward trend. Breeders were still actively selling, and some enterprises accelerated the selling rhythm to avoid future risks. Slaughterhouses had smooth procurement, with sufficient pig supplies, keeping the pork supply loose [2][22]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis Terminal consumption weakened significantly, with a decline in household and catering procurement demand. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses decreased simultaneously, and the sales speed of白条 slowed down, continuously constraining the pork price [2][22]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report does not provide specific content on cost - profit analysis other than showing relevant profit charts. 5. Market Outlook After continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of breeders emerged, and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage provided support, causing the price to temporarily stop falling. However, the selling pressure of breeders remained, and the live - pig price was expected to decline further. It is advisable to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22].