Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term investment rating of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for precious metals [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US tariff policies have reignited safe - haven demand, supporting the price of gold and driving up the price of silver. The factors affecting precious metals have become more complex, and their price trends are more uncertain [2][3] - Although the better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, the US tariff policy has increased market risk - aversion. The Fed's future rate - cut expectations are more uncertain. Silver has broken through the oscillating range, and the safe - haven demand for gold has strengthened again, but its further upward momentum needs to be observed [28] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the strong US economic data and the Fed's internal differences and tariff - related safe - haven factors, the market's expectation of a July rate cut has weakened, but gold has strengthened again, and US silver has broken through the oscillating range and moved upward [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Market concerns about new US sanctions on Russia have increased potential supply risks and pushed up international oil prices. The EU may join Canada and Japan in countering US tariffs [12][19] - Trump's tariff policy may push up consumer prices, while the labor market shows signs of cooling, posing a difficult problem for the Fed's policy - making [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [12][15][16] - Some Fed officials believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in July or twice this year, but policy prospects are highly uncertain [15] - Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [15][19] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, and recent indicators show that economic activity continues to expand steadily [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US employment data shows a mixed picture, with some positive and some negative signs. The first - quarter GDP shrank, personal consumption growth was weak, and inflation pressure remained [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump's new tariff policies and potential sanctions on Russia have increased market uncertainty. The G7 has reached an agreement on tax issues with the US [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is due to US tariff policies. The US economy's resilience supports the strength of the US stock market, which is positive for silver [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors, the RMB has appreciated significantly and then slightly depreciated, maintaining an appreciation trend. Exchange rates are not a key factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the expectation of a July rate cut, but the tariff policy has increased risk - aversion. The future trend of precious metals needs to pay attention to the US dollar index and the relationship between the US dollar and gold [28]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term due to rising refining processing rates to meet summer travel and power generation demand, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential further sanctions on Russia. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an expected increase in crude oil supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [2][28]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were volatile and slightly bullish. The SC2509 contract opened at 497, reached a high of 513, a low of 490, and closed at 503, with a weekly increase of 5.1 or 1.05% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **OPEC**: On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative production recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day target. The IEA increased its forecast of global oil supply this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and Saudi Arabia shows signs of accelerating production release, resulting in continuous supply pressure [5]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were at abnormally low levels, and its refined oil exports dropped to an eight - month low due to government policies. The decline in exports has raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity and increased supply - tight sentiment in the European and American markets [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [7]. - **Americas' Production Increase**: The IEA expects global oil production capacity to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. OPEC says that the supply from non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [14]. - **Inventory**: In May, global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%), strategic inventory by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%), commercial inventory by 7.07 million barrels (+1.69%), and Cushing area inventory by 464,000 barrels (+2.24%) [15]. - **Consumption**: OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, while the IEA has lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US refinery crude processing volume decreased, and refinery operating rates declined. Refinery processing fees showed different trends in different regions, and refinery operating rates were at a low level in some areas [18][21][23]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short term, rising refining processing rates, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential sanctions on Russia provide support for crude oil prices. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an increase in supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices rebounded from the bottom, with the average national rebar price rising by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the overall market sentiment is positive. Coupled with factors such as the increase in coking coal prices and northern production restriction news, the cost support for raw materials has increased, and the market sentiment for price support and increase is strong. For next week, the supply-demand fundamentals may improve to some extent, but the weak demand restricts market confidence to a certain extent [2][3]. - The contradiction in the off-season fundamentals is not obvious. The supply-side contraction expectation formed by the "anti-involution" policy and the Shanxi production restriction news, along with the weak demand, restricts market confidence. It is expected that the short-term futures market may fluctuate narrowly [28]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices rebounded from the bottom, with the average national rebar price rising by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the overall market sentiment is positive. Coupled with factors such as the increase in coking coal prices and northern production restriction news, the cost support for raw materials has increased, and the market sentiment for price support and increase is strong. For next week, the supply-demand fundamentals may improve to some extent, but the weak demand restricts market confidence to a certain extent [2][3]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that while ensuring the supply of national thermal coal, efforts should be made to upgrade the coal industry from low-end to high-end and transform coal products from primary fuels to high-value products. At the same time, a new energy system should be built by developing wind power, photovoltaic power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources [5]. - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the importance of rectifying "involutionary" competition, accurately grasped its harm and causes, and explored effective measures to rectify it in practice to create a fair competition market environment for high-quality development [5]. - In June 2025, China's PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month [5]. - 33 construction enterprises jointly issued an "anti-involution" initiative in the construction industry to promote industry transformation and abandon "involutionary" competition [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative transaction area of first-hand and second-hand housing in Shanghai reached 13.11 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17%, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2022. Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand housing was 9.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 24% [5]. - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles both exceeded 15 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively [6]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in June reached 2.11 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. The domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June reached 1.111 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% [6]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 99,300 tons, lower than last week's 106,800 tons. Affected by the typhoon, the rainy weather in East and South China had a great impact on the enthusiasm of terminal procurement, and the terminal procurement enthusiasm was average [8]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - It is expected that the short-term futures market may fluctuate narrowly. Recently, the prices of black commodities have accelerated their rise, with the weekly increase of main coking coal reaching 7.41%, coke rising by 5.81%, iron ore rising by 3.8%, hot-rolled coil rising by 1.93%, and rebar rising by 1.65%. The rebar main contract 10 closed at 3,133, up 34 points on the day, 61 points higher than last week's closing price. The weekly settlement price was 3,091, up 55 points, and the latest position was 2.2 million lots, a decrease of 39,000 lots compared with last Friday's position. The price continued to rise this week, with the increase expanding for two consecutive weeks. From last week's low to this week's high, it reached 172 points. Currently, the futures price has returned to the level of mid-April, showing a strong rebound trend. Currently, the futures price is higher than most spot market prices, and attention should be paid to the need for rhythmic adjustments. Pay attention to the support at the 3,100 mark below and the pressure in the range of 3,150 - 3,200 above [28]. - Investment strategies: For single-side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][28].

国债期货震荡偏空，关注政治局会议 摘 要： 由于 A 股强劲反弹，股债跷跷板使得债市有效跌破 60 日均线， 后续债市或进入趋势性空头行情。目前经济基本面依然具有韧性， 但是持续复苏的动力不强，市场关注 7 月政治局会议是否会有增量 政策出台，如果有增量政策出台，那么债市空头行情或进一步得到 确立，目前股债跷跷板依然是债市主要逻辑。 6 月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合 PMI 分别为 49.7%、50.5% 和 50.7%，比上月上升 0.2、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点，三大指数均有所 回升。6 月财新中国制造业 PMI 录得 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点， 与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。新订单指数反弹至略高于临界点水 平。生产指数亦重回扩张区间，创近七个月来新高。但是 6 月财新 中国服务业 PMI 录得 50.6，较 5 月回落 0.5 个百分点，下行至 2024 年四季度以来最低。6 月综合 PMI 产出指数反弹 1.7 个百分点至 51.3。经济数据好坏参半，但整体表现出一定的韧性。 今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时， ...

生猪价格震荡偏弱运行 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，养殖场出栏节奏偏慢，出栏积极性高， 屠宰厂收购顺畅，原料成本有下滑趋势。 从需求端来看，天气炎热，市场消费始终处于疲软 状态。尽管前期生猪价格持续上行，但分割品价格并未跟 涨，且销售表现欠佳，终端采购积极性整体偏弱。 综合来看，猪肉行情或有下滑趋势，操作上建议：区 间操作或逢高做空。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 生猪专题报告 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证期货 2.供应情况分析 图 2：样本企业能繁母猪存栏量月度走势图 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic coking coal and coke prices showed a stable and slightly upward trend this week. The supply of coking coal was tight, with slow recovery. The iron - water output remained at a high level. The market sentiment was positive, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies included mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of domestic coking coal and coke were stable with a slight upward trend. On Friday, some coke enterprises in Hebei proposed the first - round price increase. The prices of different types of coke increased by 70 - 95 yuan/ton. Some regions saw coking coal price increases of 30 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out the development direction of the coal industry during an inspection in Shanxi, aiming to build a new energy system [6]. - In June 2025, China's PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, while CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - From January to June, the cumulative transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai increased by 17% year - on - year, with second - hand housing increasing by 24% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 15 million, with new energy vehicles growing significantly. In June, the production and sales of automobiles also showed year - on - year growth [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Coal mines in Changzhi had reduced production due to relocation, and many mines in Shaanxi were under maintenance. The overall supply was tight. The iron - water output was around 240 tons this week, remaining at a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coke production decreased slightly, downstream coke enterprises actively replenished stocks, the trading atmosphere of coking coal was good, and coal mine inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace [33]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have resumed production, but there are still new production cuts in other areas of Shanxi, and environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are getting stricter. The supply recovery is slow [33]. - Import: The Ganqimaodu Port was closed this week and will resume on July 16th, with an average daily clearance of 744 vehicles during the previous four - day clearance [33]. - Investment strategies: Range - bound operations for single - side trading, wait - and - see for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【 短 评 - 螺 纹 钢 】 Mysteel 调 研 247 家 钢 厂 高 炉 开 工 率 83.15%，环比上周减少0.31个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 89.9%，环比上周减少0.39个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比 上周增加0.43个百分点；日均铁水产量239.81万吨，环比上周 减少1.04万吨。评：反内卷情绪继续发酵，发改委提到加快新 型城镇化，市场对于棚改重启的预期升温，市场情绪表现积 极。淡季深入，降雨高温天气影响不断，螺纹需求回落，库存 延续去化。淡季基本面矛盾并不明显，"反内卷"政策叠加山 西限产消息形成的供给侧收缩预期，以及"城市更新"等需求 侧改善预期共同推动，宏观情绪升温，预计短期盘面表现震荡 偏强运行。 【短评-原油】IEA在月报：今年全球石油供应量较之前的 预测增加30万桶/日至210万桶/日。但近期石油需求显著放缓， 将2025年平均石油需求增长预期下调至70.4万桶/日，将2026年 平均石油需求增长预期下调至72.2万桶/日；贝克休斯公布的数 据显示，截止7月11日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量424座， 比前周减少1座，为2021年9月份 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market sentiment is good, and the coking coal futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong operation [2] - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at the 2460 level [3] - The short - term hog price is expected to be slightly weak, and range trading is recommended [5] - The palm oil price is expected to be weak in the short - term [5] - The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with strong technical support in the 2900 - 2920 range [6] - The iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and short - term long positions are recommended on dips [7] - The rebar futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 1260 level [9] - The PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with pressure at the 7115 level [10] - The crude oil is bearish at high levels [11] - Short - term short positions on PTA at high levels are recommended [11] - Caution is advised regarding the rubber's rebound, and it is better to wait and see [12] - The short - term decline space of short - term treasury bonds is limited, and the stock - bond seesaw should be monitored [13] - Whether the medium - and long - term treasury bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen, and the July Politburo meeting should be watched [13] - The silver is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] - The gold will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern, and the dollar - gold seesaw is the main logic [14] Group 3: Summaries by Variety Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that coke daily output, capacity utilization, and inventories of coke, coking coal, and injection coal have changed. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, but the futures price has rebounded due to positive news [2] Caustic Soda - In Shandong, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda has increased, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has declined. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [3] Hog - The agricultural product wholesale price index shows an increase in pork and egg prices. However, due to supply - demand game and increasing supply pressure, the hog price is expected to be slightly weak [5] Palm Oil - Malaysia's June palm oil production decreased, imports increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Soybean Meal - Brazil's expected July soybean and soybean meal exports have increased, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to trade concerns and oil mill situations [6] Iron Ore - Global and Australian - Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. Demand has also shown some changes, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Rebar - Rebar production has decreased, inventory has continued to decline slightly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly due to policy expectations [8] Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward trend, production has decreased, and inventory has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9] Polypropylene - The price of polypropylene has increased, the capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has changed. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10] Crude Oil - OPEC is discussing pausing further production increases, and demand has been revised down. The price is bearish at high levels [11] PTA - The price of PX and PTA and relevant cash - flow costs are given. Due to weak demand and a weakening crude oil, short - term short positions at high levels are recommended [11] Rubber - The prices of Thai and Hainan rubber raw materials are provided. Supply is increasing slowly, and demand is weak. Caution is advised regarding the rebound [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term interest rates have changed, indicating tight short - term liquidity. The short - term decline space is limited [13] Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - Local governments have issued a large amount of replacement bonds, and fiscal policies are active. Whether the bonds enter a downward trend remains to be seen [13] Silver - Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The silver price has broken through the oscillation range, and the short - term is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly [14] Gold - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has decreased, and the dollar index has risen. Fed officials have differences on July interest - rate cuts. The gold price will have a medium - term wide - range oscillation pattern [14]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开 工率62.33%较上期增2.60%；日均产量52.59万吨增2.00万吨； 原煤库存300.77万吨减11.40万吨；精煤库存197.07万吨减 17.91万吨。评：近日炼焦煤市场稳中偏强运行，价格多数有所 上涨，煤矿成交情况也较好，多数煤矿已经出现预售情况，多 数煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，煤矿挺价意愿较强。终端补库 带动了投机氛围，对市场情绪有一定提振作用，但产地端煤矿 处于复产节奏当中，后续重点关注煤矿产量以及下游焦钢企业 盈利情况，预计短期炼焦煤价格稳中偏强运行。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布致8 个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函。其中，巴西将被征收50%的 关税，利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和斯里兰卡将被征收30%的 关税，文莱和摩尔多瓦的税率是25%，菲律宾的税率是20%。新 税率将从8月1日起生效。此前，特朗普已向日本、韩国等14个 国家发出了首批关税信函，关税税率从25%到40%不等。他同时 预告本周还会有更多此类信函发出。评：虽然各国对关税均有 所表态，但是关税扰动减弱，市场关注度有所降 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威 尔应立即辞职。此外，特朗普还在社交媒体平台"真实社交" 上发文表示，经济顾问委员会的一项新研究发现，关税对通胀 毫无影响。事实上，研究表明进口价格实际上正在下降。特朗 普还表示，应该把这项新研究给"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威 尔看看。评：市场目前认为7月不降息的概率为95.3%，9月不降 息的概率为34.2%，美联储7月降息预期减弱，但是美国经济韧 性好，利多风险资产。后续白银进一步上涨动力不强，或跟随 黄金走势。白银短期或震荡略偏空，关注黄金白银走势是否同 步。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1262元/吨，震荡下行 趋势；纯碱周度产量70.89万吨，环比-1.1%；纯碱厂家总库存 180.95万吨，周上升2.41万吨；浮法玻璃开工率75.68%，周度 +0.68%；全国浮法玻璃均价1173元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6908.5万重箱，环比下降0.19%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场暂稳，企业 多稳价出货，多数加工厂订单未有显著改善，操作刚需为主。 国内纯碱市场偏弱震荡，供应高 ...