Report Summary Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 12 - 18, 2026, palm oil futures and cash prices oscillated weakly in sync. The main contract P2605 declined by 0.09% for the week. The core drivers were the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory month - on - month and the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 policy suppressing the market, while improved exports and seasonal production cuts provided support. The lack of resonance between domestic and foreign markets led to range - bound oscillations [1]. - In December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased month - on - month but was still higher than expected, and inventory increased. Indonesia cancelled the B50 policy, resulting in insufficient boost to biofuel demand and suppressing prices. However, January is a season of seasonal production cuts, with SPPOMA data showing a 20.49% month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 10 days of January, providing support [1]. - In the short term, palm oil is supported by futures and stocking demand, but the pressure of inventory accumulation limits the upside, and high - price transactions are sluggish. The price center of palm oil is expected to move up, and the recommended operation is mainly range trading [1]. - Factors to watch include Malaysian palm oil production and export data, the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Palm oil futures and cash prices oscillated weakly from January 12 - 18, 2026. The main contract P2605 fell 0.09% for the week. The market was affected by multiple factors such as inventory changes, policy cancellation, and seasonal production cuts, showing range - bound oscillations [1]. - In the short term, there are both supporting and restrictive factors for palm oil prices. The price center is expected to move up, and range trading is recommended [1]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The table shows the palm oil shipping schedule quotes and import profit calculations on January 16, 2026. For different shipping months (February - May), the import costs are 8738, 8851, 8838, and 8809 yuan respectively, and the corresponding on - disk profits are - 106, - 219, - 206, and - 191 yuan [2]. Supply Situation Analysis - Although there are figures related to palm oil supply such as buy - ship quantity statistics, expected arrival volume, and Malaysian palm oil production, no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [7][8][12]. Demand Situation Analysis - There are figures related to Chinese palm oil liquid import quantity and Malaysian palm oil export quantity, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [12][14]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a figure about the on - disk profit of the May shipping schedule of palm oil, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Last week, the copper market oscillated at a high level and broke through the previous high in the game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality." The macro - situation is divided at home and abroad, and the fundamentals show a typical multi - empty tug - of war. The copper price is still in an oscillating pattern. Looking forward, the copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and the fluctuation risk may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Macro - situation: There is a differentiation between domestic and overseas. Domestic active fiscal and monetary policies boost market confidence, while overseas, the Federal Reserve signals a suspension of interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical disturbances create a complex background. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the strike crisis at Chilean copper mines continues, and the raw material shortage pattern remains. On the demand side, high prices continuously suppress spot purchases, and the market rationally revises the expectation of copper consumption in emerging fields such as AI. Although there is policy - driven stocking demand in the photovoltaic field, the overall consumption shows "weak reality" characteristics. - Future trend: The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, with potential for intensified fluctuation risks. "Strong expectations" such as long - term supply bottlenecks, global green - transition demand, and a macro - loose environment provide bottom support, while "weak reality" pressure from high - price negative feedback, geopolitical and overseas - policy uncertainties will continue to cause disturbances [2]. Attention Factors - Attention should be paid to the latest Sino - US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change Amount | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 101,770 | 100,330 | 1,440 | 1.44% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 110 | - 45 | - 65 | - 144.44% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward - spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 46.4 | - 45 | - 1.4 | - 3.11% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 102,770 | 101,500 | 1,270 | 1.25% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 143,575 | 138,975 | 4,600 | 3.31% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 213,515 | 180,543 | 32,972 | 18.26% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper (LME Copper 3), and the Shanghai - London ratio (unadjusted for exchange rate) through relevant charts, with data sources from Boyi Master and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][7]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents relevant data on copper concentrate forward - spot prices, crude copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper and scrap copper price - change trends, and the main - market refined - scrap price difference through multiple charts, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [12][13][16]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows data on 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, refined copper rod trading volumes, Yangshan copper bonded - area premiums, and electrolytic copper warehouse - receipt bill - of - lading premiums through relevant charts, with data sources from iFinD, the Steel Union Terminal, and Ningzheng Futures [21][23][30]. 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report presents data on electrolytic copper spot inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges through relevant charts, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. At the end of the week, the mainstream market planned to increase coke prices, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 19. Supported by costs, this price increase is likely to be implemented next week [1]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage efforts are increasing, and coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamental situation of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and spot prices still have upward momentum, but the futures market is affected by other varieties in the sector and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. The planned price increase of coke in the mainstream market is likely to be implemented next week. In the future, the fundamental situation of coking coal will improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum and the futures market expected to fluctuate [1]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Coking coal total inventory was 2233.95 million tons, up 64.74 million tons (2.98%) from the previous week [3]. - Coke total inventory was 920.21 million tons, up 4.31 million tons (0.47%) from the previous week [3]. - Steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 228.01 million tons, down 1.49 million tons (-0.65%) from the previous week [3]. - Independent coking enterprises' profit per ton of coke was - 65 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (44.44%) from the previous week [3].

生猪期货：走出底部震荡区间 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）2026年1月12—18日生猪期现同步震荡偏强，期货主力LH2603周涨 2.25%、现货外三元均价周涨 1.81%，核心驱动是集团场控量挺价 + 散户惜售，需求端 "旺季不旺"、屠 企开工率偏低限制涨幅。 供应端：集团场1月出栏计划下调约3%，散户惜售压栏，适重生猪供应收缩，支撑价格；但能繁母猪存 栏仍处高位，大体重猪源充足，长期供应压力未减。需求端：南方腌腊高峰已过，北方集中消费未全面启 动，屠企开工率偏低，消费对价格拉动有限，上涨主要依赖供应端收缩。 期货研究报告 2026年01月19日 核心变量：补栏增加，短期支撑价格；若集中出栏，或加剧供应压力，拖累价格。若集中出栏，短期 供应增加，期货或回调至11800以下；控量挺价延续，价格维持震荡上行。操作建议：价格回落至11800— 11900，企稳后入场。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 频率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The domestic soda ash market is stable with new orders received generally. With high supply due to new capacity and stable operation of enterprise equipment, and relatively stable downstream demand, the supply - demand situation of soda ash is loose. It is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain high in the near future, and the price will fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure of the 05 contract at the 1250 level. Key factors to watch include soda ash start - up changes, new capacity launch progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with new orders received generally. Last week, the domestic soda ash output was 77.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 million tons or 2.88%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a week - on - week increase of 2.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 157.50 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million tons or 0.15%. The pending orders of enterprises decreased slightly to over 12 days [1]. - The start - up of domestic soda ash is expected to remain high and stable this week, and the downstream demand is expected to be relatively stable in the near future. The output of downstream float glass is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream procurement volume of photovoltaic glass continues to increase, and the supply is expected to be generally stable this week, with the industry still having the expectation of inventory reduction. In the context of loose supply - demand of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and the launch of new capacity exerts pressure. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new capacity launch progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 43 | 7 | 36 | 514 | Weekly | | Enterprise Inventory | Million tons | 157.5 | 157.27 | 0.23 | 0.15 | Weekly | | Weekly Output | Million tons | 77.53 | 75.36 | 2.17 | 2.88 | Weekly | | Dual - ton Profit of Combined Soda Process | Yuan/ton | - 44 | - 40 | - 4 | - 10 | Weekly | | Profit of Ammonia - soda Process | Yuan/ton | - 96.3 | - 57.85 | - 38.45 | - 66.46 | Weekly | | Start - up Rate of Downstream Float Glass | % | 71.38 | 71.96 | - 0.58 | - 0.81 | Weekly | | Start - up Rate of Downstream Photovoltaic Glass | % | 66.31 | 67.04 | - 0.73 | - 1.09 | Weekly | [3] Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with narrow price adjustments. The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the basis in the East China market rebounded slightly [7]. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 15, the domestic soda ash output was 77.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 million tons or 2.88%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 36.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.24 million tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 41.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93 million tons. The theoretical profit (dual - ton) of combined - soda - process soda ash in China was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda - process soda ash was - 96.30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46% [8]. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of January 15, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 87,210 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 7.47%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 66.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, the overseas demand for photovoltaic modules gradually increases. The domestic supply is expected to become tight, and overseas orders are expected to improve. The short - term export volume of modules is expected to increase rapidly, and the module price is expected to rise. Most module enterprises plan to increase module production scheduling, with the estimated increase in production scheduling in January being 4 - 5GW, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The subsequent component quotations are expected to continue to rise, but the actual transactions are expected to continue to be in a game [11]. - **Float Glass**: As of January 15, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The output this week is expected to increase slightly [11]. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 15, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 157.50 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million tons or 0.15%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 83.70 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 73.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons [13]. Position Analysis - As of January 16, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 793,270, a decrease of 2,857, and the short positions were 975,333, a decrease of 13,020. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

2026年1月19日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位，震荡偏弱 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2230-2290元/吨，广 东价格波动在2210-2250/吨。部分库区提货偏弱，但整体外轮卸货量少，港口甲醇库存较大幅下降，但目前 库存仍处高位，且由于下游利润不佳，需求偏弱，短期内高库存状态难有缓解，对市场形成压制，港口甲醇 市场震荡整理。内地甲醇价格延续走跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1830-1838元/吨；下游东营接 货价格波动区间2105-2118元/吨。虽周内西北烯烃外采，港口价格走高利好下，但基于企业高库存及下游弱 需求压制下，市场延续疲软。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升，本周预期有所下降。预计甲 醇价格近期震荡偏弱运行，05合约上方压力2275一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲醇 | ...

报告导读： 期货研究报告 2026年01月19日 周报 贵金属期货：避险挥之不去，利多因素增加 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 图 1： 黄金期货内外盘价格 元/克 美元/金衡盎司 图 2：白银期货内外盘价格 元/千克 美元/金衡盎司 数据来源：同花顺，宁证期货 市场回顾与展望：美国总统特使威特科夫透露，美国已向伊朗传递直接信息。威特科夫称，伊朗经济 状况严峻，并表示若伊朗希望回归国际社会，可通过外交方式解决相关问题，其中，铀浓缩、导弹、敏感 材料以及"地区代理武装"是四项关键议题。威特科夫还称，如果无法通过外交方式解决相关问题，那么 "替代方案将非常糟糕"，地缘风险虽然没有进一步恶化，但是变动风险依然存在。与此同时，美国总统 特朗普表示，希望哈塞特留任现职而不是调往美联储。此番言论一出，前美联储理事凯文·沃什迅速跃升 为下一任美联储主席的最热门人选。围绕美联储主席继任人选依然悬而未决，华尔街避险情绪有所增加， 对贵金属也增加了利多因素。 美联储褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速度增长，3个 地区报告没有变化，1个地 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, prices increased due to the escalation of domestic demonstrations in Iran and the US's warning. In the middle of the week, as the expectation of the US attacking Iran weakened, oil prices dropped significantly. Overall, the crude oil market still faces supply - surplus pressure, and without geopolitical drivers, it's difficult for oil prices to maintain a strong pattern [2]. - OPEC+ will pause production increases in Q1 2026, but there was significant cumulative production increase in 2025. Non - OPEC+ countries like the US, Brazil, and Guyana are operating at high production levels. It is expected that the non - OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. The situation in Venezuela may cause short - term disruptions to exports, but in the long - term, it is seen as a potential supply expansion. Overall, supply growth pressure remains, with short - term supply variables depending on Iran (geopolitical developments) and long - term on OPEC+ policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors initially drove prices up, but later the weakening of relevant expectations led to a decline. The supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market persists [2]. Key Concerns - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be focused on [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - **Periodic and Spot Market**: SC crude oil futures rose from 432.70 yuan/barrel to 438.80 yuan/barrel, a 1.41% increase; Oman crude oil spot increased from 61.20 dollars/barrel to 62.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.60% increase; Brent crude oil futures went up from 63.02 dollars/barrel to 64.20 dollars/barrel, a 1.87% increase; WTI crude oil futures rose from 58.40 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a 1.78% increase [4]. - **Supply**: US crude oil production decreased from 13,792 thousand barrels per day to 13,753 thousand barrels per day, a 0.28% decline. OPEC's production situation is presented in relevant charts [4][13]. - **Inventory**: US crude oil inventory increased from 419,056 thousand barrels to 422,477 thousand barrels, a 0.82% increase [4]. - **Demand**: Data such as refinery operating rates in the US, China, Europe, and India are presented in relevant charts [26][28][30]. - **Cost - profit**: The comprehensive refinery profit increased from 677 yuan/ton to 726 yuan/ton, a 7.24% increase [4].

Report Information - Date: January 19, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Shi Xiuming, Cao Baoqin, Kuai Sanke, Cong Yanfei [3] Core Views - The change in the likely candidate for the Fed Chair may disrupt the expectation of monetary easing, slightly increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - The national pig price is rising, especially in the Northeast, Central, and East China regions. The pig price is expected to move up, but there are risks of decline [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The inventory pressure of iron ore is gradually building up. The supply side has potential disruptions, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The demand for construction materials will seasonally weaken, but steel production will continue to recover. Rebar will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure. Without geopolitical drivers, the oil price is difficult to maintain strength. Short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - The demand for asphalt is still weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is ample in the first quarter. Weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. Soybean meal is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short - term [7]. - The palm oil price is supported by the upcoming decision on 2026 biofuel blending quotas in the US, but is weakened by the expected opening of Canadian rapeseed imports. It is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - The supply of synthetic rubber remains high, and the cost has increased significantly. However, the downstream resistance to high prices is strong. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - The structural monetary easing makes the general reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut difficult to implement in the short - term. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [10]. - The supply of plastics is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable with fluctuations. New production capacity puts pressure on the price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [12]. - The copper market has a complex situation with supply growth concerns and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - The aluminum market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality". The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [15] Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Silver**: The possible change of the Fed Chair candidate may disrupt monetary easing expectations, increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. Excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances have slightly decreased, but uncertainties remain. The uncertainty of the Fed Chair candidate increases risk - aversion. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [11]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of January 16, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter was 123.5 kg, up 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 35.83%, down 0.08%. The national pig price is rising, especially in some regions. The price is expected to move up with decline risks [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of January 16, the physical inventory of soybean meal in feed enterprises was 9.94 days, up 0.41 days from the previous period. The supply is ample in Q1, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. It has a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" and is recommended for range trading [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of January 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 410, up 1 from the previous week. The market has oversupply pressure, and short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: As of January 16, the weekly production was 49.7 tons, up 4.44 tons. The demand is weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. Wait - and - see is recommended during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, down 1.89% from the previous week. The supply remains high, the cost has increased, and the downstream resists high prices. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The domestic production is high, the demand is weak, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Plastic**: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE was 6916 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The production is high, the new capacity pressure is large, and the demand is average. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 802.2 tons, up 4.47 tons. The downstream winter - storage demand is increasing, and the supply will decrease. The fundamentals will improve, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 9262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The inventory pressure is building up, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points. The demand will seasonally weaken, and it will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Copper**: First Quantum Minerals slightly lowered the copper production guidance for 2026 - 2027. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - **Aluminum**: Ghana's aluminum project has new financing. The market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality", and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [14][15]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank has lowered the re - loan and re - discount rates. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, including their supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. It offers trading suggestions for some commodities based on these analyses [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity 3.1. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC's December commercial inventory in OECD increased by 4 million barrels to 2.84 billion barrels. The expected demand for OPEC crude in 2026 remains at 43 million barrels per day, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2025. US refined oil demand in the four - week period ending January 9 was 1.1% lower than the same period last year. With the reduced expectation of US strikes on Iran, the oil price dropped significantly. The oil market still faces oversupply pressure, and the price is expected to be short - sold in the short term [5]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the report. Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal is 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons. The raw coal inventory is 5.499 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons. After last week's rebound, the coking coal futures have entered a volatile pattern this week. Without policy intervention, the coal price may remain low before the Spring Festival [1]. 3.2. Metals Iron Ore - From January 5 to January 11, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. The overseas iron ore shipment volume has slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited growth in overseas shipments in the first quarter. The port inventory is under pressure to increase, but the short - term increase in iron water production and steel mills' restocking provide some support for the ore price [3]. Steel - As of the week of January 15, the weekly output of rebar was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons. The apparent demand increased by 153,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. With the approaching cold air, the demand is expected to weaken, but the steel price may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - economic factors and high costs [4]. Aluminum - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will cancel the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. In the short term, the policy has boosted the aluminum price, but in the long term, it may suppress aluminum demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9]. Gold - Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and concerns about the Fed's independence may weaken. With strong US economic data, the short - term demand for interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward momentum of precious metals has weakened [10]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year. The short - term urgency for interest rate cuts has decreased. Industrial demand supports silver, but the price increase is limited in the short term [1]. 3.3. Chemicals PTA - The social inventory of PTA is 2.8674 million tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.76%. The polyester load is slowly decreasing, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed market sentiment. PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31%. The port inventory decreased by 101,900 tons to 1.4353 million tons. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6494 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.19%, a decrease of 0.42%. The commercial inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 695,500 tons. Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 52.3 Thai baht/kg. The domestic rubber production area has stopped harvesting, and the raw material price in Southeast Asia is firm. The social inventory of natural rubber in China has seasonally increased to a neutral level. It is recommended to short - sell or wait and see in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia has lowered the reference price and tariffs, but strong export data and Indonesia's signal of long - term supply tightening have led to a market expectation of tightening supply. It is recommended to trade in a range in the short term [8]. 3.4. Agriculture Soybean Meal - On January 15, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton. The market has demand, but the willingness to chase high - priced soybeans is weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the first quarter. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term [7]. Corn - Not covered in the report. Wheat - Not covered in the report. Livestock - On January 15, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%. The pig price is expected to fluctuate after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the reduction of breeding sows [8]. 3.5. Others Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank has implemented measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be more volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10]. Futures - Not covered comprehensively. Only short - term evaluations of various commodity futures are provided in the report.