Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The short - term sentiment for some commodities is positive, such as short - term long positions for live pigs, palm oil, and crude oil; while some are expected to be range - bound, like coking coal, methanol, etc.; and some are expected to be weak, like domestic soybeans [1][2][4][5][12]. - The market for each commodity is affected by various factors including supply, demand, policy, and macro - economic conditions. For example, the live pig market is influenced by supply reduction from farmers' price - holding and increased demand; the coking coal market is affected by supply disruptions and demand from coke enterprises [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Live Pigs - As of August 22, the average slaughter weight was 123.38 kg, up 0.15 kg; the weekly slaughter start - up rate was 28.83%, down 0.18%; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 214.73 yuan/head, down 10.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit was - 9.19 yuan/head, down 21.02 yuan/head; and the piglet price was 364.29 yuan/head, down 19.04 yuan/head [1]. - After the price decline, farmers are holding prices. With the weather getting colder, demand slightly increases, and some second - fattening enters the market. The state's purchase and storage can boost prices in the short - term, and with positive macro - economic expectations, short - term long positions can be held, with the LH2511 contract having a support level of 13700. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [1]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08%; the daily coke output was 65.45 (in 10,000 tons), up 0.07; coke inventory was 64.37 (in 10,000 tons), up 1.86; coking coal total inventory was 966.41 (in 10,000 tons), down 10.47; and the available days of coking coal were 11.1 days, down 0.13 days [2]. - Some mines in main production areas have resumed production, but there are new production - halting mines in Shanxi. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port has increased. Coke production has increased slightly, but coke enterprises maintain a strategy of purchasing on demand, and upstream mines have started to accumulate inventory slightly. The supply recovery is limited, and the demand is supported by the rigid demand and low inventory of coke enterprises. The short - term futures price is supported, and range - bound operation is recommended [2]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, with different growth rates in different regions [4]. - Indonesia's low inventory in June indicates less inventory pressure this year, which supports the palm oil price. With the approaching consumption season, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking at low prices. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term [4]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 1.765 billion tons, a 3% year - on - year increase; the planting area is expected to reach 48.7 million hectares, a 2% year - on - year increase, the lowest growth rate in five years [5]. - The domestic soybean fundamentals are weak. The state reserve's continuous auction of old soybeans increases supply, and the recent auctions have had a good transaction rate, suppressing the price of 2024 old soybeans. As new soybeans are approaching the market, supply pressure is increasing, and demand has not improved significantly. The domestic soybean price is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. Rebar - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a 0.23 - percentage - point decrease from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease; and the daily average hot metal output was 2.4075 million tons, a 0.09 - 10,000 - ton increase [6]. - Some steel mills have short - term rolling mill maintenance and hot metal transfer, resulting in a decline in rebar production. As the off - season is ending, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking before the parade, and rebar demand has improved month - on - month, with slower inventory accumulation. With the end of the off - season, limited callback space for the futures price is expected, and future focus should be on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 144.442 million tons, a 626,300 - ton increase; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4104 million tons, a 57,600，- ton decrease; and the number of ships at ports was 97, a decrease of 3 [7]. - After Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, leading to a slight increase in iron ore prices. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly rebounded. Demand is expected to remain high as hot metal production is increasing slightly. The port inventory is accumulating, and the total inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate at the current level [7]. Gold - After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, multiple Fed officials made statements, and the Fed still faces various internal differences and challenges. The market has started to trade on the rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index has fallen, and gold has risen [8]. - Gold has a short - term rebound demand, may fluctuate and be bullish in the short term, but remains bearish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between the US dollar and gold [8]. Silver - After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September and fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of the year [8]. - The global risk appetite has increased significantly, which is bullish for silver. The silver price is expected to fluctuate and be bullish [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 60 billion yuan of MLF operations on August 25, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing in August. After this operation, the central bank will have a net MLF injection of 30 billion yuan this month, the sixth consecutive month of increased operations [9]. - The continuous MLF injection releases medium - term liquidity. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, the risk appetite in the market has increased. In the context of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, long - term bonds are expected to fluctuate and be bearish. Short - selling long - term bonds at key resistance levels is recommended [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,295 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan/ton decrease; the port inventory was 1.076 million tons, a 54,200 - ton increase; the production enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, a 15,200 - ton increase; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 207,400 tons, a 12,000 - ton decrease; and the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 72.36%, a 0.34 - percentage - point decrease [10]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and increasing, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is continuing to accumulate. The September import volume is expected to remain high. The inland methanol market is slightly weak, and the port basis is stable, with general spot transactions. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support level of 2,415. Observation or short - term long - buying on dips is recommended [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash nationwide was 1,319 yuan/ton, fluctuating weakly recently; the weekly production was 771,400 tons, a 1.33% increase; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, a 0.9% increase; the float glass start - up rate was 75.34%, unchanged from last week; the average price of float glass nationwide was 1,149 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton increase; and the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight cases, a 0.28% increase [11]. - Float glass production is stable, with slightly increasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable. Some enterprises are reducing production, and overall supply is expected to decline this week. Downstream demand is average, with rigid procurement. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support level of 1,310. Observation is recommended [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 7,001 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 78.23%, a 0.24 - percentage - point increase; the average downstream industry start - up rate was 49.53%, a 0.18 - percentage - point increase; the commercial inventory was 800,600 tons, a 26,800 - ton decrease; and the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina polyolefins was 730,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton decrease [11]. - Polypropylene production is stable, overall supply is still abundant, and commercial inventory is decreasing but remains higher than the previous two years. In the context of loose supply and demand, commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level in stages. The market price is fluctuating weakly, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support level of 7,030. Observation or short - term long - buying on dips is recommended [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week ending August 22, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 411, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and 72 from the same period last year [12]. - Oil prices have rebounded in the past week. The EIA report shows a decline in crude oil inventory, and India is buying Russian oil, temporarily alleviating concerns about oversupply. The Russia - Ukraine issue remains to be observed. Demand has marginally improved, and short - term long - trading is recommended [12]. PX - The operating rate of the Chinese PX industry increased by 0.3 to 84.6%, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, with little change in plant operations this week. The Asian PX industry operating rate increased by 2.2% to 76.3%, also at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [13]. - This week, the PX supply - demand situation has weakened marginally. However, with the increasing expectation of a US rate cut in September and the call for rectifying old - fashioned production capacity in the industry, the chemical sector is generally strong. The unexpected maintenance of Hengli Huizhou last Thursday drove up the PTA price, which in turn drove up the PX price. Observation or cautious short - term long - trading is recommended [13]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 55 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 49.5 Thai baht/kg. As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a 2.76 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 7.81 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a 2.35 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 7.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [14]. - The rainy season in Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas is affecting rubber tapping, while rubber tapping in Cote d'Ivoire is expected to be normal as it enters the dry season. Global supply follows the seasonal pattern. On the demand side, the domestic tire industry's production activities have not improved significantly, with poor replacement tire demand and a decline in tire export growth. Rubber is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Observation or cautious short - term long - trading around the 15,500 area is recommended [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities, including gold, crude oil, iron ore, etc. It analyzes the impact of different factors such as trade agreements, production plans, and policy regulations on commodity prices and market trends [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The US - EU trade agreement is favorable to the US and negative for the euro, causing the US dollar index to rise. Gold has a short - term rebound demand and may fluctuate upward, but the dollar - gold seesaw effect should be monitored. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on Friday may increase precious metal volatility [1]. Crude Oil - Iraq plans to increase daily oil production to nearly 6 million barrels by 2028, and India will continue to buy Russian oil. There is a situation of weak expectations against the reality of non - accumulated inventory. It is advisable to wait and see at the current position [1]. Iron Ore - In August, the iron ore fundamentals have few contradictions. High iron - water production provides strong demand support. The ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased. The demand side has some support from high iron - water production, but attention should be paid to temporary production - restriction policies. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Rebar - The fundamentals of steel are weak, but due to environmental protection policies and policy expectations, the probability of a sharp decline in rebar prices is low. Short - term long positions can be considered in the 3000 - 3100 area, and caution is needed when pre - laying long positions in the far - month contracts [4]. Live Pigs - The national average pig - grain ratio has fallen below 6:1, triggering a third - level warning. The state will conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which can boost the pig price in the short term. Short - term long positions can be tried, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil inventory is at a low level, and the consumption peak season is approaching. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term [6]. Soybeans - The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast has been slightly increased. The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the domestic soybean price is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term [8]. Silver - The US economic data shows resilience, and the US - EU agreement boosts risk appetite. The silver price is expected to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The upcoming large - scale policy - based financial instruments may increase stock market investment and have a negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to show more volatility, and short positions can be considered for long - term bonds at key resistance levels [9]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is sufficient as the Southeast Asian production season approaches, and the demand is weak. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. PTA - Jiangsu's policy draft signals a solution to over - capacity. For PTA, the proportion of 1 million - ton/year devices is low, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, but caution is needed at high levels [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends. Some are expected to be in short - term shock, some may rebound in the long - term, and some are expected to be weak in the short - term and improve later [1][3][4]. - The supply and demand relationship is the main factor affecting the price trends of commodities, including factors such as production, inventory, and market demand [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The demand for coking coal has support due to the profit repair of coking enterprises and high pig iron output. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Coking Coal Data**: 314 independent coal washing plants have a capacity utilization rate of 36.1% (down 0.46% month - on - month), a daily refined coal output of 25.7 tons (down 0.7 tons month - on - month), and a refined coal inventory of 294.8 tons (down 2.2 tons month - on - month) [1]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high - level production, stable downstream demand, and increasing port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 2385. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Methanol Data**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2305 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton), the port inventory is 107.6 tons (up 5.42 tons week - on - week), the production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons (up 1.52 tons week - on - week), and the order backlog is 20.74 tons (down 1.2 tons week - on - week) [1]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has support, and the downstream demand is resilient. However, production is increasing, and there is an over - capacity problem. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term outlook is not optimistic [5]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Data**: The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is 34.32% (up 0.56% week - on - week), and the daily output is 15590 tons (up 4.45% week - on - week, an increase of 665 tons) [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with pressure at 1340. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [7]. - **Soda Ash Data**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1319 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week), and the manufacturer's total inventory is 189.38 tons (up 1.54% week - on - week) [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The supply of polypropylene is abundant, and the market price is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 7000. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [8]. - **Polypropylene Data**: The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6997 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton), the capacity utilization rate is 78.41% (down 0.13% day - on - day), and the commercial inventory is 80.06 tons (down 2.68 tons week - on - week) [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market has a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price of domestic soybeans will be weakly stable in the short - term [6]. - **Soybeans Data**: The expected soybean crushing volume in August is nearly 10 million tons, and the expected output of soybean meal is about 8 million tons, higher than the average monthly consumption in August in the past three years [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from August 1 - 20 increased significantly. It is expected that the price of palm oil will be strongly shocked at a high level in the short - term [6]. - **Palm Oil Data**: According to Amspec, the export volume from August 1 - 20 is 869780 tons (up 17.48% month - on - month); according to ITS, it is 929051 tons (up 13.61% month - on - month) [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The national pig price is adjusted strongly, and the market supply and demand are in a stalemate. The LH2511 contract has support at 13700. Farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [3]. - **Live Pigs Data**: On August 20, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 20.04 yuan/kg (down 0.8% from the previous day), and the price of eggs is 7.62 yuan/kg (down 1.4% from the previous day) [3]. Metals - **Rebar**: The steel price may be in a weak shock in the short - term. As the northern region implements production - restriction measures, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market will be relieved, and the steel price is expected to stop falling and rebound [4]. - **Rebar Data**: On August 20, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities in the country is 3338 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day) [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although it is predicted that the supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market will increase, the current inventory has decreased significantly, providing an atmosphere for the oil price to rebound. Conservative traders can wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil Data**: The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a decrease of 1.41%), and the gasoline inventory decreased by 2.72 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day on August 15 [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The supply of rubber is stable, and the social inventory has little change. The demand side lacks driving force. It is recommended to use the range - shock thinking [11]. - **Rubber Data**: The Chinese natural rubber inventory increased by 7500 tons to 1.285 million tons (an increase of 0.6%), among which the dark - colored rubber inventory is 806,000 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week), and the light - colored rubber inventory is 479,000 tons (down 0.4% week - on - week) [11]. - **Gold**: The geopolitical situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has eased, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Gold has a short - term rebound demand but is still in a weak shock in the medium - term [8]. - **Silver**: The upward momentum of the U.S. dollar index has weakened, which is beneficial to precious metals. The silver market is expected to be in a long - term shock. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term funds in the bond market are tight, and the shock attribute of treasury bonds is strengthened. It is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [9]. - **Treasury Bonds Data**: Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose. The overnight variety rose 0.9BP to 1.473%, the 7 - day variety rose 1.7BP to 1.534%, the 14 - day variety fell 0.3BP to 1.596%, and the 1 - month variety rose 0.4BP to 1.532% [9]. - **PTA**: PTA has short - term support but weak mid - term expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PTA Data**: The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 16 - 26 days [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - The steel market may experience weak and volatile prices in the short - term due to decreased demand in the off - season and expected production restrictions in Tangshan [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [2]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and its upside potential is limited in the long - term [4]. - The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term as the supply recovery is slow and demand has slowed down [5]. - The short - term price of live pigs futures is stable, and farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - The palm oil price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [7]. - The domestic soybean price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [7]. - The L2601 contract of plastics is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - The silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility recently [9]. - The gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The crude oil is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [12]. - The polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The rubber is expected to be in a range - bound and weak in the short - term [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - On August 19, the domestic steel market price fell weakly. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3347 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased. However, considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment was not strong [1]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased by 0.75 tons to 2.83 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.63 tons to 102.18 tons, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.19 tons to 29.56 tons. The methanol capacity utilization rate rose by 0.97% to 82.4%, while the downstream total capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.34% to 72.36% [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output increased by 1605 tons to 29580 tons. The cost support of manganese silicon was strong, but the supply - demand relationship tended to be loose due to the resumption of production by manufacturers [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.13%, up 0.38%. The daily average coke production increased by 0.27 to 52.29, the coke inventory decreased by 5.32 to 39.31, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 3.34 to 829.41, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.11 days to 11.9 days [5]. Live Pigs - On August 19, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.09 points to 115.33, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.11 points to 115.70. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.21 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of eggs rose 1.8% to 7.73 yuan/kg [6]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the palm oil price to remain above 4300 ringgit. The domestic spot price decreased, and the trading volume was slightly boosted. The international soybean - palm oil price spread was inverted again, affecting future demand, but there was still support from holiday stocking in India and China [7]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 890 tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 880 tons. The domestic soybean market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The new soybeans have not been listed in large quantities, but the state - reserve auctions have supplemented the market supply. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and the impact of other food prices [7]. Plastics - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China was 7327 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 28.96 tons, down 3.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 16% to 15.17 tons. The oil - based daily production profit was - 244 yuan/ton. The average opening rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3% [8]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1326 yuan/ton, showing weak and volatile trends recently. The weekly production was 76.13 tons, up 2.24%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.54% to 189.38 tons. The opening rate of float glass was 75.34%, up 0.15% [9]. Silver - The S&P confirmed the US "AA +/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The market believes that the US economy is still resilient, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, the silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility [9]. Gold - The geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict shows signs of easing, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut and the rise of the US dollar index, the gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. The bond market may rebound in the short - term due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, but it is bearish in the medium - term [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, the distillate inventory increased by 0.5 million barrels, and the gasoline inventory increased by 1 million barrels. The profit of China's diesel and gasoline exports was poor, and India's economic growth rate was lower than expected, putting pressure on the oil market. The short - term crude oil has no upward driving force and is expected to be weak and volatile [11][12]. Short - fiber - The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.45%, down 0.04% from the previous period. The production was 16.35 tons, down 0.01 tons or 0.06%. The average opening rate of the pure - polyester yarn industry was 70.96%, unchanged from the previous period. The average cash flow of the polyester staple fiber industry was - 223.77 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber glue in Thailand was 54.7 baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 49.8 baht/kg. In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 94.364 million, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the production increased by 0.7% to 686.115 million compared with the same period last year. The supply was stable, the social inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content Core Views of the Report - For rubber, supply remains stable, short - term rain affects new rubber release, cost support is strong, but downstream production control in late August may slow inventory reduction and limit price rebound, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - For coke, after six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing. The spot market is stable, and the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate [2] - For polyester bottle - chips, raw material support weakens, downstream demand is for rigid replenishment, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4] - For rebar, with the approaching parade, blast furnace restrictions are uncertain. Supply and demand both decline, inventory accumulates, but there is still support below the futures price, and the focus is on production restrictions and terminal demand [5] - For iron ore, supply is stable, demand is high, and the market is expected to oscillate as the fundamental situation is healthy [6] - For live pigs, supply exceeds demand in the short term, with weak price adjustments, and farmers can consider selling hedging [7] - For palm oil, domestic inventory is increasing, but due to bullish sentiment and pre - holiday demand, prices are expected to oscillate upward [7] - For soybean meal, downstream acceptance is low, but as inventory is consumed, prices are expected to rise, and the M01 contract is expected to oscillate widely with strong support below [8] - For soda ash, supply is increasing, downstream demand is average, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - For methanol, domestic production is rising, downstream demand is stable, inventory is accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - For polypropylene, supply is abundant, inventory is high, and the PP01 contract is expected to oscillate, with suggestions to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - For gold, geopolitical tensions may ease, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] - For silver, the market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] - For short - term treasury bonds, rising capital costs and the stock - bond seesaw effect are negative for the bond market, with a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] - For crude oil, supply expectations are raised, demand growth is lowered, and there is no short - term upward driving force, with an expected oscillatory downward trend [13] Summaries by Product Rubber - Thailand's raw material prices decline, with cup - lump down 0.35 baht/kg to 49.45 baht/kg, and latex remaining at 54.2 baht/kg. In Hainan, heavy rain disrupts tapping, and glue output is scarce. From January to July, China's rubber tire exports reach 563 tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [1] Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is - 45 yuan/ton, with different profitability in various regions. After six price hikes, coking profits turn positive, production increases slightly, demand is strong, and inventory is decreasing [2] Polyester Bottle - chips - In this trading cycle, the output is 32.27 tons, remaining flat. The average weekly profit is - 218.5 yuan/ton, down 11.75 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is in the peak season, with stable downstream industry operating rates [4] Rebar - On August 18, domestic steel prices fluctuate. The billet price in Tangshan drops by 20 yuan/ton to 3050 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities drops by 14 yuan/ton [5] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14381.57 tons, an increase of 114.30 tons. The daily port clearance volume is 346.80 tons, an increase of 10.35 tons. Overseas mine shipments decline slightly, and port arrivals return to last year's level [6] Live Pigs - On August 18, the average pork price in the national agricultural wholesale market is 20.20 yuan/kg, a 0.7% increase from last Friday. The overall supply is sufficient, and the market is in a state of oversupply in the short term [7] Palm Oil - As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions is 61.73 tons, a 2.92% increase from last week and a 5.96% increase from last year [7] Soybean Meal - In the 33rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreases by 4.24% to 680.4 tons, and the soybean meal inventory increases by 1.12% to 101.47 tons [8] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1326 yuan/ton, with an oscillatory downward trend. The weekly output is 76.13 tons, a 2.24% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers is 189.38 tons, a 1.54% increase [9] Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu is 2302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The port inventory is 102.18 tons, an increase of 9.63 tons. Production is rising, and downstream demand is stable [10] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawing - grade polypropylene is 7022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. Production is stable, supply is abundant, and inventory is high [11] Gold - Trump and Zelensky meet at the White House, with possible geopolitical easing, and the medium - term trend is expected to oscillate downward [11] Silver - The market is watching the Jackson Hole meeting, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut probability is high. Silver is expected to oscillate upward, with large fluctuations on Friday [12] Short - term Treasury Bonds - On August 18, most money - market interest rates rise, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being negative for the bond market, and a short - term oscillatory downward trend [12] Crude Oil - Trump hosts the Ukraine summit, and各方 support peace. The IEA raises supply expectations and lowers demand growth forecasts, with no short - term upward driving force [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak, and the market price in East China has been continuously falling. Enterprises are forced to adjust prices to relieve the pressure of goods shipment. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined, with an average price of 1,182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.98 yuan/ton from the previous period. In different regions, the prices in North China, East China, and Central China have all faced downward pressure. The downstream mainly purchases for rigid demand [8] - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market and implement the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including building materials [8][9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of August 14, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The weekly average profits of float glass with different fuels have all decreased [11] 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile and manufacturing industries [13][14] 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China has increased [16] 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of August 15, the long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market decreased by 22,374 to 905,482, and the short positions increased by 42,304 to 1,210,393. The net position of the top 20 members is bearish [19] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The float glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss. Later, focus should be placed on the start - up changes of float glass [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sixth round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with marginal profit improvement for coke enterprises. The average daily pig iron output this week was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline. - Domestic supply is constantly disturbed, coal mine inventories are still at a low level, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It is expected that the short - term futures market will still have support [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market first rose and then fell this week. On the 14th, steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other places raised the tender price for coke procurement, which was the sixth round of price increases. The increases were 50 yuan/ton for tamped wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamped dry - quenched coke, 70 yuan/ton for top - charged wet - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - From August 12th, China and the US continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. - On August 15th, US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting in Alaska, discussing issues such as the Ukraine issue and Russia - US relations, but no agreement was reached. - Nine departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities, with an annual interest subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point for a maximum of 1 year. - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. In July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 2.84238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%, and the new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan (the first negative growth since July 2005). - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily - output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily - output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily - output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6][7][8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi returned to the production - increasing rhythm this week, but due to underground conditions and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, the overall production increase in Shanxi was slow. Some coal mines in Shaanxi stopped production due to moving faces, resulting in a significant decline in output. - Demand side: The sixth round of price increases for coke was fully implemented this week. The average daily pig iron output was 240,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340 tons, providing certain rigid demand support for raw materials. However, with the approaching of major events in September, there are expectations of production restrictions in Shandong, Hebei and other places, and downstream procurement enthusiasm may continue to decline [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines resumed production this week, but some reduced production due to various factors. Overall supply recovery was slow. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 1,024 vehicles due to system adjustments, and the impact has now been basically eliminated. - Demand side: Coke production increased slightly, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises slowed down after restocking. Coal mine inventories in some areas began to accumulate, but overall inventories decreased slightly due to pre - sales. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has weakened expectations for the magnitude of a September interest rate cut, as well as the number and scope of rate cuts within the year. However, a September rate cut remains highly likely, with a probability of over 80%. The precious metals market is still in a rally driven by interest rate cut expectations, though the strength of this rally fluctuates. During the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, gold and silver may experience a divergent trend. Gold may trade sideways or slightly bearish as the need for safe-haven assets diminishes, while silver may strengthen further, indicating a potential catch-up rally. [2] - The US economic data shows that the economy remains highly resilient. The RMB exchange rate has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited, so it is not a key consideration. [3][26] Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, funds may continue to flow back to the US, providing some support for the US dollar. Against this backdrop, the sideways nature of gold may intensify, while silver is expected to continue its sideways-to-bullish trend as industrial demand increases with the anticipation of an economic recovery and the impending rate cut. In the long term, the trends of gold and silver will diverge. [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting, which may inject positive momentum into global political stability. - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth. The year-on-year increase reached 3.9%, and real retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by 1.2% year-on-year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining at the lowest level since November 2021. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering near the highest level since 2021. - The US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. - There are internal disagreements within the Bank of Japan. Some board members advocate abandoning the "potential inflation" indicator, which lacks a clear statistical framework, and instead focusing more on overall inflation and inflation expectations. This change may pave the way for a rate hike in October. - Several Fed officials spoke out, seemingly aiming to cool down the escalating expectations of an interest rate cut. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again and threatened to allow legal action against Fed Chairman Powell. He also announced the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Anthony as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [13][15][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Key Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase reaching 3.9%. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by 1.2% year-on-year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month. The ISM non-manufacturing index in July declined from the previous value of 50.8 to 50.1, falling short of the expected 51.5. New orders almost stagnated, employment contracted, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022. The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.7, the highest since December 2024. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.7%, reaching the highest level since February. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, and disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May. Overall, the US economy shows high resilience. [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin may have a positive impact on global political stability. Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%. He also announced a plan to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with exemptions for companies building factories in the US. European leaders issued a joint statement on the Ukraine peace issue, expressing support for Trump's efforts to end the conflict. [22] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 224,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1.953 million. The ISM non-manufacturing index declined, and the S&P Global Services PMI reached a new high. Crude oil prices are still subject to significant fluctuations due to production cuts, and the improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, reducing US inflationary pressures. The prices of domestic and international copper have shown divergent trends. As the expectation of a September rate cut strengthens, high-risk assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further rally. [23] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate generally tracks the movement of the US dollar index. China's PMI data in July declined, and financial data such as social financing fell short of expectations. Consumption and investment data also weakened, indicating significant domestic economic challenges. However, the RMB exchange rate remains resilient, with a low probability of unexpected fluctuations. Therefore, the impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold, whether in the short term or in the long run, is limited and not a key consideration. [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Although the US PPI data in July significantly exceeded expectations and retail sales increased substantially month-on-month, the market has only weakened expectations for the magnitude of a September rate cut and the number and scope of rate cuts within the year. A September rate cut remains highly likely. Gold may trade sideways or slightly bearish as the need for safe-haven assets diminishes, while silver may strengthen further, indicating a potential catch-up rally. The synchronous movement and divergent trends of gold and silver coexist, making trading decisions challenging. [29]

Report Information - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The liquidity is expected to remain loose in the second half of the year, which may intensify the short - term fluctuations in the bond market and increase the difficulty of bond market operations. The Chinese economy shows resilience, but there is still downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustments need to be continuously strengthened [2][3][16] Chapter 1: Market Review - Key Point: The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average. Although the logic becomes less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, it remains the main logic in the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Key Point 1: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and keep liquidity abundant. It has carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations this month, and there is a possibility of increasing the volume of MLF renewal [13] - Key Point 2: Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027 [15] - Key Point 3: The US has suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days since August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff [15] - Key Point 4: In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [15] - Key Point 5: In July, M2 increased by about 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by about 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by about 11.8% year - on - year [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - Key Point: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2. Although the economy shows certain resilience, the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter - cyclical adjustments need to be strengthened [16] 3.2 Policy Aspect - Key Point: As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The growth rate of social financing stock was 9%, and the new social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - Key Point: The cost of funds has decreased since July 25. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is low, but monetary easing remains an option if necessary [20] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - Key Point: The state will implement the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year. The special national debt has supported equipment renewal with 2000 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated. The market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - Key Point: The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. The short - end bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while the long - end bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Key Point: The loose liquidity in the second half of the year may strengthen the stock market fluctuations and the short - term fluctuations in the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic and the loose liquidity logic make the bond market operations more difficult [29]

钢材期货周度报告 2025年08月18日 库存继续累积 盘面震荡回调 摘 要： 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢材期货周报 行情回顾：本周建材价格先扬后抑，全国螺纹钢均价环比下 跌10元/吨。然而，终端需求仍显平淡且库存累积扩大，价格反 弹幅度有限。供应端在高利润的驱使下，复产增产延续，需求 端，市场逐渐恢复冷静，预期降温，实际终端需求减弱。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由弱转强，但铁水产量继续减少，品 种产量继续下降。需求端：由于炒作因素退潮的影响，市场投机 需求明显减弱，淡季效应持续突显。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳 中上涨，废钢价格小幅震荡，焦炭价格小幅上涨，生产成本支撑 力度维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 一、本周行情回顾 本周建材价格先扬后抑，全国 ...