棕榈油价格区间震荡，短线交易 摘 要： 供需关系： 棕榈油产地因天气利好，预计中性 ENSO 趋势预计将 持续到 6 月至 8 月，带来充足的降雨，叠加棕榈油增产 季影响，棕榈油价格承压。但是印度方面棕榈油采购并无 明显增加，因此产地出口报价大幅下调以增加出口，中国 棕榈油进口利润迅速修复，刺激近月买船增加。但短期内， 国内棕榈油价格依旧承压，操作上建议区间操作为主，关 注主产区产量数据报告。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：棕榈油均价走势（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 2. 供应情况 ...

邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 猪价短期回调做多，中期关注多头机会 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，下周养殖端正常出栏，规模企业出栏 进度完成尚可，二育和散户大体重猪源陆续在售，成交一 般。因此下周供应端或小幅增加。 从需求端来看，屠宰企业按需采购，二育少量进场。 五一假期过后，需求有缩减，尤其大猪。需求端或小幅减 少。 综合来看，均价重心无明显调整，生猪市场供应端出 栏或小幅增加（散户猪源），需求小幅减量，一方面二育 减少，此外五一节后需求减少，尤其大猪需求欠佳，因此 下周供应小幅增加，需求减少，价格或弱稳为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪 ...

基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于"盈利效 应"的影响，钢厂产能释放力度小幅增强，铁水产量小幅增加， 而品种产量表现不一。需求端：由于受到季节性天气的影响，各 品种市场成交表现参差不一。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳中下 滑，废钢价格稳中下滑，焦炭价格维持稳定，生产成本支撑力度 再度走弱。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权 策略：宽跨式盘整 钢材期货周度报告 2025年05月12日 库存开始累积 钢价震荡偏弱 摘 要： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡偏弱，全国螺纹钢均价环比下 跌40元/吨。节后受宏观政策提振，市场推涨情绪转浓，但终端 需求跟进不足，商家出货压力较大，随后各地市场价格整体下 挫。对于下周，由于钢坯接单量转弱，钢厂转产螺纹意愿增强， 而需求持续性不佳，库存去化节奏放缓，基本面压力逐步显现。 钢材期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周钢材价格震荡偏弱，全国螺纹钢均价环比下跌40元/吨。节后受宏观政策提振，市场推涨情绪转浓，但终 端需求跟进不足，商家出 ...

双焦期货周度报告 2025年05月12日 上游库存累积 盘面表现不佳 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周炼焦煤价格大部分跌幅20-30元/吨，9日国 内市场炼焦煤震荡偏弱运行，临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格下跌10元 /吨，低硫主焦精煤A9、S0.5、V20、G85出厂价现金含税 1270元 /吨。本周国内市场焦炭价格暂稳运行，目前焦炭第二轮提涨希 望基本落空，市场传下周钢厂发起焦炭价格提降。 基本面分析：现阶段下游钢厂开工尚可，铁水产量高位运 行，焦炭需求仍有刚性支撑，然近日钢坯价格震荡偏弱运行，钢 坯价格下调的影响下，市场预期谨慎观望情绪较浓；炼焦煤产量 仍然偏高，市场炼焦煤库存仍在高位，供需双强局面下，炼焦煤 基本面矛盾不突出，市场价格震荡偏稳运行。情绪面影响较大， 钢材消费淡季，钢厂后续检修减产预期明显，下游对原料采购消 极。但当前钢厂有盈利，铁水产量目前仍处于高位，短期内对原 料价格支撑较好，炼焦煤大幅下跌可能较小。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PTA industry is short - term bullish [2] Core Viewpoints - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [2][15] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended for low - position long positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4390, the highest was 4590, the lowest was 4328, and the closing price was 4582, with a weekly increase of 148 or 3.34% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports a Small Rebound in PXN - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. Only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton capacity in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project launch in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The current PXCFR is reported at $777/ton, and PX - N is $223/ton; the PTA in East China is reported at 4720 yuan/ton, and the PTA cash - flow cost is 4354 yuan/ton. The load of the Chinese PX industry increased by 5.6% to 78.6%, and some plants increased their loads due to improved production efficiency. Overseas, South Korea's Daesan Hanwha Total slightly reduced its load in May, and Japan's Idemitsu's 210,000 - ton line of an 880,000 - ton plant unexpectedly shut down for about a month at the end of April [4][6] 2.2 Maintenance Promotes PTA De - stocking - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. In May, due to the still - poor PTA profitability, the maintenance efforts of suppliers were still large. It is estimated that the average monthly load of PTA in May is expected to decline month - on - month. Affected by the planned maintenance of some plants, the PTA industry load decreased by 7.4% to 70.3%, reaching a low level in the same period over the years. The domestic PTA weekly output this cycle was 1.2925 million tons, a decrease of 43,800 tons from last week. The current PTA social inventory is about 4.1226 million tons, a decrease of 183,700 tons month - on - month. Whether the terminal demand can achieve a trend - based repair remains to be verified by post - holiday orders, and there is medium - term pressure on the demand side [9][10] 2.3 Polyester Load May Decline - From January to March 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. After the holiday, the polyester load continued to rise to 94.2% (+0.8%). Next week, the weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry is expected to be over 1.57 million tons, a slight increase from this period. As of May 9, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 60.1%, unchanged week - on - week. As of May 9, the grey fabric inventory of East China weaving enterprises was 34.0 days, unchanged week - on - week. Terminal orders are differentiated, the polyester load has increased beyond expectations and may remain high in May. The filament trading volume has declined, and the weighted inventory has started to accumulate. The supply contraction effect caused by the concentrated maintenance of plants continues, and there is a support basis for the short - term polyester industry chain prices, but whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The PXN spread repair has driven the recovery of the load rate of Asian PX plants. The current phased low point of PX plant load has emerged, and it is less likely to return to the previous low - load operation state this year. The short - term rebound is due to the concentrated maintenance of PX and PTA, which is a valuation repair. In the long term, attention should be paid to terminal orders and Sino - US trade negotiations, and whether the demand can achieve substantial repair remains to be verified. Short - term participation is recommended [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain in a mid - term shock pattern, with the stock - bond seesaw being an important influencing factor. The increase in bond supply will be a mid - term negative for the bond market, and the bond market may return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic later [2][30]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the expected reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, and the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation made progress, which repaired market risk appetite. The rise of the stock market pressured the bond market, and the supply of ultra - long - term treasury bonds still affected the bond market, which remained in a shock state [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In April, China's CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI rose by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [15]. - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [15]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan. Consumers bought 3.56 million units of 12 major categories of household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan, and 2.42 million pieces of digital products such as mobile phones, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [16]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th, achieving important consensus and substantial progress [16]. - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, turning from a 3.3% year - on - year decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase. In March, the profit turned from a 0.3% decline in January - February to a 2.6% increase. Nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth, and the manufacturing industry improved significantly, with a 7.6% profit growth in the first quarter, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points [16]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption were implemented. Although there was no large - scale stimulus policy, detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chain were continuously introduced. The economic data showed a mixed picture, with the consumer market being active during the "May Day" holiday, but the manufacturing PMI declining in April [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspects - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Most money market interest rates declined [20]. 3.3 Capital Aspects - Although the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and policy interest rate did not change significantly, bond market interest rates and DR007 decreased significantly, indicating a certain degree of loose capital. There was still an expectation of further monetary easing, which would support the bond market. However, due to the partial implementation of monetary easing, the probability of significant monetary easing in the near term was low, and the bond market was still influenced by the stock - bond seesaw logic [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The government debt combination in 2025 included a 4% deficit ratio, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds, with the broad deficit ratio reaching 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. As of March 3rd this year, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, with the issuance significantly accelerating compared to the same period of the previous year [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio was still at a relatively high level although it had declined from the historical high, indicating that the cost - performance of allocating to the bond market was low. Institutions were more likely to focus on stock market opportunities. The bond market was in a wide - range shock, and its short - term trend was greatly affected by the stock market, but it might return to the economic fundamentals later [27]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Politburo meeting in April, the bond supply may increase, which is a mid - term negative for the bond market. The bond market will return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic, and the stock - bond seesaw will still be an important influencing factor. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the mid - term, and investors should pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [30].

原油震荡偏多 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望或短线 摘 要： 印巴局势从急剧升温又在一天之内迅速逆转达成全面 停火，中美经贸谈判历时 2 天达成实质性进展，美伊核协 议第四轮谈判艰难但富有成效，宏观和地缘为原油注入反 弹动力。整体看，调查数据显示欧佩克上月产量为 2,660 万桶/日，较 3 月减少 3 万桶/日，短期原油压力不大，后 续关注 5 月份沙特等中东产油国产量回升进展。短线参与 反弹。 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油小幅反弹。SC2507 周度开 445，最高 500，最低 467，收盘 445，周度跌 1.3 或 0.28%。 06 合约承压下跌。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.2 俄罗斯:逐步兑现减产，关注俄乌冲突演化 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+短期增产幅度不大 ...

今 日 早 评 【短评-黄金】纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美国贸易政策 正在增加经济下行风险，高不确定性下维持通胀预期稳定至为 关键。美联储巴尔金指出，并非所有企业都能通过涨价消化关 税成本。美联储博斯蒂克称，在不确定性增加之际调整利率并 非审慎之举。评：美国官员对未来降息依然保持很谨慎的态 度，降息或比市场预期的更加推迟。中美经贸谈判取得一定进 展，但是落实或仍需要时日。美元指数反弹，利空黄金。黄金 下方空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思路为 宜。 【短评-原油】贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止5月9日的一 周，美国在线钻探油井数量474座，比前周减少5座；比去年同 期减少22座；美国总统和英国首相斯塔默宣布，英国已同意降 低美国进口关税；国务院副总理何立峰当地时间11日晚在出席 中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈 坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进 展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，并将于5月12日发布 会谈达成的联合声明。评：印巴局势从急剧升温又在一天之内 迅速逆转达成全面停火，中美经贸谈判历时2天达成实质性进 展，美伊核协议第四轮谈判艰难但富有成效，宏观 ...

投资咨询中心 期现日报 2025年5月9日 请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 期现日报 期现日报 请参阅最后一页免责声明 2 期现日报 | | | | 力贝 盛 时 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 今收 | 昨结 | 漆跌 | 漆跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | 授权度 | 增城 | | 螺纹主力2510 | 3022 | 3072 | -50 | -1.63% | 1.655,962 | -397.902 | 2, 344, 321 | 109,542 | 0. 71 | -0.21 | | 螺纹指数 | 3023.8 | 3073. 84 | -50. 04 | -1.63% | 1,883, 973 | -426, 991 | 3, 030, 383 | 136, 939 | 0. 62 | -0. 18 | | 热卷王力2510 | 3157 | 3200 | -43 | -1. 34% | 579.080 | -60, 383 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普巨额减税方案的立法工作将 于下周正式启动，尽管共和党内部仍存分歧，但至关重要的众 议院委员会将开始审议相关立法。共和党仍在激烈辩论重要的 细节，包括扩大州和地方税收抵免以及限制遗产税等内容。 评：避险情绪有所减弱，美元指数反弹，利空黄金。黄金下方 空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思路为宜。 【短评-甲醇】江苏太仓甲醇市场价2380元/吨，下降42元/ 吨；甲醇开工92.17%，周上升2.45%；西北能源30万吨/年甲醇 装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率71.22%，周下降 0.82%；中国甲醇港口样本库存46.32万吨，周下降12.24万吨； 甲醇样本生产企业库存30.98万吨，周减少0.26万吨。评：成本 端煤炭价格预期偏弱，当前甲醇利润尚可，国内甲醇开工预期 高位运行，下游需求下降，本周外轮到港量预期环比增量，港 口甲醇库存或累库。内地甲醇部分市场走跌，企业竞拍成交一 般，港口甲醇市场基差偏强，整体商谈成交尚可。预计甲醇09 合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2210一线，建议观望或回调短线 做多。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月09日 研 ...