今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2105元/吨，上升27元 /吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.81%，环比+0.72%，山西亚鑫30 万吨甲醇装置预期近期检修结束；下游总产能利用率75.1%，周 下降1.17%；中国甲醇港口样本库存123.44万吨，周下降11.5万 吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存35.28万吨，周减少0.87万吨， 样本企业订单待发20.75万吨，周降低3.22万吨。评：国内甲醇 开工高位，下游需求小幅下降，本周甲醇港口库存大幅去库， 华东地区甲醇倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货。内地部分 市场偏强，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈 成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位下降，预计短期震荡偏弱运行。 【短评-白银】美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达 到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。截至11月29日当 周，续请失业金人数降至184万人，创四年来最大单周降幅，当 周恰逢感恩节假期。评：初请失业金人数有所增加，美国就业 形势严峻，2026年降息或仍有空间，提升风险偏好。白银震荡 偏多，关注是否出现逼空行情。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月12日 研 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】今日凌晨，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后 公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%– 3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次 降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议投票为9票赞成、3票反对，部 分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。评：美联储如期降息， 下次具体降息与否开启观望模式，贵金属波动较小，贵金属依 然震荡偏多。 【短评-原油】EIA报告：美国至12月5日当周除却战略储备 的商业原油库存减少180万桶至1.257亿桶，降幅0.4%，汽油库 存 639.7万桶，预期276.4万桶，美国至12月5日当周美国国内原 油产量增加3.8万桶至1385.3万桶/日；截止12月5日的四周，美 国成品油需求总量平均每天2041.7万桶，比去年同期高1.6%； 哈萨克斯坦石油黑海关键出口终端CPC的系泊设施维修工作持续 拖延，维修工作现在预计要到12月15日才能完成，耗时比此前 预期更长。评：油市再次进入了供应过剩压力与地缘因素、宏 观因素博弈的阶段，随着油价从日内低位大幅反弹，短线缓解 了油价持续下行压力，因缺乏实质利好，反复仍是原油常态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, and the short - term volatility of precious metals will increase. Silver is oscillating upward, but beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut is realized [1] - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - Coking coal is greatly affected by supply disturbances. The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term steel price may oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4] - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - The national hog price is mainly stable. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - Palm oil may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the MPOB report's production - cut expectation [6] - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to relevant policies and import news [6][7] - The long - term treasury bond oscillates downward, but the downside is limited [7] - Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term under the background of high inventory, stable supply and weak demand [8] - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term due to increased supply, rising inventory and weak downstream demand [9] - Copper will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] - Crude oil is under pressure from supply - demand surplus, and should be treated with a weak - oscillation mindset [10] - PTA may rise after a decline, but be cautious when chasing high prices [11] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly due to insufficient demand [12] 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Precious Metals - **Silver**: The Fed may cut interest rates tonight. Silver is oscillating upward, and beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut [1] - **Gold**: The dot plot of Fed officials and the future Fed chairperson are the keys to the medium - and long - term trend. Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price is 1258 yuan/ton, with a weak price recently. The supply - demand is stable, but the high inventory is difficult to resolve. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - **Methanol**: The production in the northwest is decreasing, the price in the Jiangsu market is falling, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling, the supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the downstream is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, the load is expected to be stable, but the demand is expected to weaken. PTA may rise after a decline, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The global supply is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pressures the price. It is expected to oscillate weakly [10] Metals - **Coking Coal**: The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - **Steel (Rebar)**: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price may oscillate, but the upside is limited [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - **Copper**: It will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia may decline slightly in November, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic market price is falling, the demand is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] - **Hog**: The price is mainly stable, expected to oscillate within a range. Wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material is resistant to price drops, but the demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly [12]

期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美联储定于12月9日和10日举行议息会议， 市场普遍认为，美联储很可能再次降息25个基点。评：美联储 议息会议即将开启，市场关注鲍威尔讲话，并对明年降息幅度 进行预判，关注降息兑现后，白银是否会继续走高。目前市场 关注点在黄金是否进一步走强，进而影响到白银走势。白银震 荡偏多。 【短评-PX】国内PX装置负荷小幅回调，国内PX负荷下降 0.1%至88.2%，亚洲PX负荷下降0.1%至78.6%。国内方面，乌石 化以及浙石化装置负荷有所波动；海外装置方面，持稳 运行。 沙特Satorp检修完毕重启中；越南NSRP炼厂端检修，PX负荷恢 复中。评：短期短流程开工支撑下对PX供应影响有限，但1季度 随着部分亚洲装置检修预期下，PX供应存收缩预期。原油震荡 偏弱。PX震荡过渡。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月09日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is slightly bearish with a strong oscillatory nature [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The year - end capital market disturbances have emerged, with most money market interest rates rising. The marginal tightening of the capital market adds negative factors to the bond market [2] - The stock index may attempt to break through the trend line again, and the stock - bond seesaw effect may be negative for the bond market [2] - In November, China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, and the probability of large - scale stimulus policies at the end of the year is low. The economic fundamentals do not support the bond market to break through the oscillatory range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - As of December 8, most money market interest rates rose, with the overnight silver - deposit pledged repurchase weighted average rate up 0.06BP to 1.3003%, the 7 - day rate up 0.04BP to 1.438%, the 14 - day rate up 2.68BP to 1.5116%, and the 1 - month rate up 2.4BP to 1.6158% [2] - The stock index may try to break through the trend line again, and the stock - bond seesaw effect may be negative for the bond market [2] 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable [3] - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2 (previous value 51.8), and the S&P services PMI was 52.1 (previous value 52.6). The new order index continued to grow, and new export orders improved significantly [3] 3. Policy Aspect - The central bank achieved a net capital injection in November, with a net purchase of 500 million yuan of treasury bonds in the open market, a net injection of 254 million yuan through pledged supplementary loans, a net injection of 1.15 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools, and a net injection of 1 billion yuan through medium - term lending facilities [3] 4. Factors to Watch - The factors to watch include the stock - bond seesaw effect, economic data, and the tightness of the year - end capital market [4]

双焦：首轮提降落地，盘面先扬后抑 期货研究报告 2025年12月08日 周报 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内市场炼焦煤、焦炭价格弱稳运行。1日河北等地主流钢厂对焦炭价格招标 下调，降幅为50-55元/吨，1日起执行，焦炭首轮提降落地。目前焦化厂利润回升，基本处于盈利状态，各 焦企保持正常开工节奏，低库存运行；原料端焦煤价格近期持续下跌，竞拍流拍较多，焦炭失去成本支撑。 展望：整体上，现货悲观情绪不改，盘面则受资金博弈影响，小幅反弹后急速回落。预计12月中下旬冬 储补库开启后将对基本面和情绪形成改善，盘面当前估值水平过低，情绪扭转后估值将逐渐修复。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2103.97 | 2106.1 | -2.13 | -0.10% | 周度 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. With inventory depletion and some steel mills' maintenance production, market enthusiasm was generally high, the fundamentals warmed up slightly, and raw material support remained strong, resulting in a relatively high bottom for steel prices. Looking ahead, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, inventory depletion continues at a relatively fast pace, and currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and the overseas expectation of interest rate cuts, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate widely at low levels [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of December 5th, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3326 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3511 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 38 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons (-1.01%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar steel mill inventory was 142.68 million tons, a decrease of 4.05 million tons (-2.76%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar social inventory was 361.13 million tons, a decrease of 23.62 million tons (-6.14%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 79.92 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons (2.44%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 320.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.45 million tons (-0.76%) compared to the previous period [3].

蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：国内纯碱市场走势淡稳，价格坚挺，整体波动收窄。隆众资讯数据监测，上周国 内纯碱产量70.39吨，环比增加0.58万吨，涨幅0.82%。纯碱综合产能利用率80.74%，上周80.08%，环比增加 0.66%。个别企业检修恢复，产量提升。国内纯碱厂家总库存153.86万吨，周下降4.88万吨，跌幅3.07%，订 单执行，高库存企业库存下降明显，其他产销基本上平衡。周内，纯碱待发订单12+天，窄幅增加1天左右。 展望：当前纯碱企业利润不佳，本周国内纯碱开工预期高位有所上升。纯碱下游需求预计稳中偏弱， 下游浮法玻璃预期产量平稳，光伏玻璃产量预期暂稳，终端陆续停工，组件采买减少，光伏玻璃消费减少。 纯碱供需宽松背景下，预期近期纯碱企业库存仍维持高位运行，后期重点关注纯碱开工变化。预计纯碱价 格近期偏弱运行，01合约上方压力1160一线。 2025年12月08日 周报 期货研究报告 纯碱：供需宽松，库存预期高位 关注因素：1.纯碱开工变化；2.新产能投放进度；3.纯碱企业库存变化。 | 纯碱 | 单位 | ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月08日 生猪期货：底部震荡偏弱 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周全国生猪现货价格先涨后跌呈弱势：12月1日全国生猪均价11.48元/公斤， 当日26个省份猪价上涨，华南地区因腌腊需求零星启动涨幅显著达0.2-0.4元/公斤；但后续价格持续走弱， 3 日全国生猪均价降至11.27元/公斤，23个省份均价下跌；5日外三元生猪均价跌至11.30元/公斤；6日多地 价格跌破前期低点，华南、西南多地猪价继续下探，仅华北、东北部分区域小幅反弹，南北价差拉大至2元 /斤。全周价格整体回落，同比跌幅超29%。 供应端方面：周养殖端出栏或继续增量，价格下行趋势下，散户认卖程度高，集中出栏增加。因此本 周供应端压力偏大。需求端方面，终端消费恢复缓慢，屠宰企业开工率和宰量虽然均有增加，需求好转， 但幅度依旧一般，短线难以形成强有力支撑。 综合来看：市场供大供应格局尚未改变，缺乏持续上涨动力，整体价格重心下移，不过价格已然低位， 下行空间有限，暂不会出现大幅下行可能。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月08日 周报 原油期货：缓慢增产，库存偏低 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：截至2025年11月28日当周，国际油价震荡下跌。本周，美媒报道乌克兰已原则同 意美国提出的和平协议，上周美国原油和成品油库存增加，不利市场，但美国能源企业石油钻机数减少，且 市场对达成俄乌和平计划存疑，油价先跌后涨。总体看，受地缘因素影响，本周油价震荡下跌。截至本周五 （11月28日），布伦特、WTI油价分别为62.38、58.55美元/桶。 2、对于后市。一方面OPEC+维持12月缓慢增产，暂停明年一季度增产，表明需求疲软，且全球原油供需 过剩现实面及预期面均施压油价。另一方面低库存有支撑，另外，地缘及制裁等不确定性间歇扰动原油。操 作上，震荡偏弱思路对待。 3、关注因素：1.地缘政治；2.原油周度数据。 | 原油 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC原油期货 | 元 ...