Group 1: Gold - The US economy may be weaker than expected, and the market is more concerned about the rate of this interest rate cut. The rebound of the US dollar index has weakened, which is positive for gold. The market has fully priced in the September interest rate cut, but a reversal may occur after the expectation is fulfilled. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend remains bullish, but the rhythm needs attention [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil - Concerns about oversupply still exist. Recent geopolitical issues such as the Israeli attack on Qatar and Poland's shooting down of Russian drones have disrupted the market. It is expected that the strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut also supported the overnight crude oil market. It is advisable to wait and see and operate after the geopolitical issues weaken [2]. Group 3: Rebar - The demand recovery in the steel market in September is still slow. Low - priced resources have fair sales, while high - priced resources have poor sales. It is expected that the blast furnace hot metal output will increase this week, the iron ore price is strong, and the coking coal market is weakly stable. Currently, the market is in a fierce long - short game, and range - bound operations are recommended [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal - Recently, domestic coking coal production has been somewhat suppressed, but due to the lack of further production cut expectations, the optimistic atmosphere in the futures market has cooled. The market has gradually returned to the logic of demand drag, driving the main coking coal contract to fluctuate weakly. The bullish risk lies in the secondary fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy [4]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon - On the cost side, raw material prices and electricity costs remain stable overall, and there is still support for the cost of ferrosilicon. In terms of demand, steel production declined during the military parade, but the profit of finished products is fair, the peak season is approaching, and steel production is expected to increase. In terms of supply, ferrosilicon production has reached a high level, the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the difficulty of inventory reduction in the future is increasing. Currently, the market inventory pressure is acceptable, and the cost side still supports the ferrosilicon price in the short term, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline [5]. Group 6: Silver - The unexpected decline in the US PPI inflation in August adds new support for the Fed's interest rate cut decision next week. The continuous decline of the US PPI data indicates increased downward pressure on the US economy, and the market has started to focus on the rate of interest rate cut. The downward pressure on the US economy is greater than expected, the market risk appetite has been significantly revised down, which puts pressure on silver. Silver will fluctuate in the short term, be bullish before the interest rate cut is realized, and bearish after the cut [5]. Group 7: Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The CPI is still lower than expected, but core inflation has increased, and the decline of PPI has narrowed with a continuous month - on - month change. Overall, inflation shows that the economy has a certain resilience, which is positive for the stock market. In the third quarter, the bond market supply may be under pressure, which is negative for the long - end bond market. The bond market supply - demand and the stock - bond seesaw need to be considered together, and the short - term trend is bearish with fluctuations [6]. Group 8: Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national pig price mainly declined. The breeding side has pressure to sell, the demand increase is insufficient, and supply exceeds demand. Some southern regions have seen large declines due to environmental protection, epidemics and other factors, but low prices have stimulated resistance and the price is gradually stabilizing; there is concentrated selling in some northern regions, and the weak trend is difficult to change in the short term, with a low possibility of a sharp rebound. Farmers are advised to choose the right time to sell for hedging [7]. Group 9: Rapeseed Meal - Currently, the rapeseed raw materials of oil mills are tight, and the crushing output is limited. In the context of tight spot market circulation of rapeseed meal, traders and oil mills have a strong sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Coupled with the support of high import costs, the spot price of rapeseed meal is extremely firm. It is expected that the rapeseed meal price will mainly fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Group 10: Rubber - In August, the growth rate of passenger car sales declined, and the finished product inventory still needs to be consumed, so the demand side is still weak. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude. The weather conditions in the main producing areas of the industrial fundamentals still need attention [8]. Group 11: Palm Oil - The MPOB report data is basically in line with expectations, slightly bearish. Both production and ending inventory have increased slightly, and exports are lower than last month and the market's forecast this month, which is inconsistent with the data of previous institutions. In the domestic market, terminal buyers have made concentrated low - price replenishments, and trading volume has increased. The short - term palm oil futures price is somewhat supported, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [8]. Group 12: PTA - There is an expectation of increased PTA supply. In terms of demand, polyester inventory is low, and the downstream polyester load has stabilized and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in terminal orders. In terms of cost, the PX supply - demand expectation has weakened marginally, and there are short - term geopolitical factors affecting crude oil. Overall, it is advisable to wait and see for PTA [9]. Group 13: Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up rate has increased at a high level, downstream demand is relatively stable, and methanol port inventory continues to accumulate. The pick - up at the main storage areas along the Yangtze River is good, and the expected import volume in September remains high. The inland methanol market continues to be strong, enterprise auctions are smoothly traded, the basis of the port methanol market has strengthened, and trading is fair. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2390 level. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [9][10]. Group 14: Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1279 yuan/ton, and it has been fluctuating weakly recently. Soda ash weekly production has increased by 4.53% month - on - month; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased by 2.43% week - on - week; the float glass start - up rate has increased by 0.43 percentage points week - on - week; the national average price of float glass has increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has increased by 0.77% month - on - month. The float glass start - up is relatively stable, and inventory has increased slightly. The East China market is mainly in a narrow - range consolidation. Some enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui have raised prices, and most downstream operations maintain just - in - time needs. The domestic soda ash market is in a dull and stable fluctuation. Soda ash plant start - up is at a high level, downstream demand is average, and low - price restocking transactions continue. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 1315 level. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 15: Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7300 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; LLDPE weekly production has increased by 3.08% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory has increased by 2.01% week - on - week; the daily production profit of oil - based production is - 225 yuan/ton; the average start - up rate of downstream products of Chinese polyethylene has increased by 1.8% week - on - week, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural film has increased by 2.7% compared with the previous period; the start - up rate of PE packaging film has increased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. Recently, the LLDPE price trend has been weak. The LLDPE device of Maoming Petrochemical has started, the market spot is sufficient, production enterprise inventory has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has slowly increased. Attention should be paid to the demand follow - up during the peak demand season, and the cost - side support has strengthened. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 7205 level. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [11].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】特朗普提名米兰担任美联储理事的人事案周 三可望在参议院扫清一个关键障碍，不过议员们表示，可能仍 来不及让米兰赶上参加下周美联储会议的投票。评：根据期货 市场相关数据，目前市场对9月降息的预期为93%，但是市场更 多的关注本次降息的幅度。美元指数大幅反弹，施压黄金。市 场对9月降息完全定价，但是预期兑现后或出现反转行情。在降 息兑现之前，仍然为偏多走势，但需要注意节奏。 【短评-甲醇】 西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 8.98万吨，周增加1.44万吨；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2275元/吨， 价格暂稳；国内甲醇周产能利用率86.63%，上升1.77%，神华新 疆180万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 72.75%，周下降0.33%；中国甲醇港口样本库存142.77万吨，周 上升12.84万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存34.11万吨，周增 加0.77万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲 醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场 走强，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差企稳，商谈成交 一般。预计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2 ...

投资咨询中心 期现日报 2025年09月09日 | 791 N 2017 For | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 今收 | 昨结 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅(%) 成交量(手) | | 增减 | 持仓量(手) | 临产 | 授机度 | 增减 | | 原油主力 | 482. 8 | 476.2 | 6.6 | 1.39 | 111072 | -19383 | 24. 849 | 241 | 4.47 | -0. 83 | | 原油指数 | 481. 0 | 475.8 | 5.2 | 1.09 | 149598 | -30518 | 68.931 | 2.038 | 2.17 | -0. 52 | | PTA主力 | 4678 | 4662 | 16.0 | 0. 34 | 431206 | -303802 | 1.028,088 | -12. 349 | 0. 42 | -0. 29 | | PTA指数 | 4676 | 4659 | 17.0 | 0. ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of coke are healthy, and the price is expected to remain volatile [1]. - The gold market may have a reversal after the Fed's interest - rate cut is realized, and it is still bullish before that, but attention should be paid to the rhythm [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate broadly and strongly [4]. - Short - term steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand in September should be further observed [4]. - The pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are mainly weak [5]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [5]. - Domestic soybean prices will be slightly adjusted in the short term [6]. - Short - term treasury bonds will continue to fluctuate [6][7]. - Silver is still fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on callbacks [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Oil prices will remain under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is suggested [10]. - The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on callbacks [11]. - The asphalt market may follow the crude oil market and fluctuate weakly [13]. - Rubber should be treated as fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coke - Supply: Some coking supplies in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have decreased, and production in restricted enterprises is resuming after the parade. Other regions are operating actively, but overall production has shrunk [1]. - Demand: Steel mill production was restricted during the parade, and demand is recovering [1]. - Inventory: Coking enterprise inventories have slightly increased in some areas due to transportation disruptions. The eighth round of price increase failed, and steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Market sentiment is driven by the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. After the cut is realized, the market may reverse. It is still bullish before the cut [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased [4]. - Demand: Hot metal production is expected to increase [4]. - Inventory: 47 - port iron ore inventories are expected to accumulate. Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. Steel (Rebar) - Demand: With the end of high - temperature weather, steel demand is expected to improve in September, but supply expansion pressure exists. The market is in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Cost: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and cost support has weakened. Short - term prices may fluctuate narrowly [4]. Pig - Market: The live - pig price has mainly declined, with significant drops in some regions. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short the near - term contract and long the far - term contract, and farmers can hedge by selling [5]. Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September, but domestic palm oil has been arriving in large quantities [5]. - Demand: Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. Soybean - Market: The domestic soybean market is stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. State - owned reserves are releasing old grains, and prices will be slightly adjusted in the short term [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Market: The money - market interest rate has mostly increased, and the bond market is affected by supply, demand, and the stock market. Short - term treasury bonds will fluctuate [6][7]. Silver - Influence factors: If Japan implements looser monetary policy and the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be bullish for silver. It is still fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to gold's influence [7]. Methanol - Supply: Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, with some plants resuming production. Import volume is expected to remain high in September [8]. - Demand: Downstream demand is stable, inventories are accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate [8]. Soda Ash - Supply: Production has increased, and inventories have decreased slightly [9]. - Demand: Floating glass production is stable, but downstream demand has not improved. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Crude Oil - Supply: The market is worried about Russian sanctions, but supply is expected to increase overall [10]. - Demand: Demand is weak. Oil prices will remain under pressure in the fourth quarter [10]. Polypropylene - Supply: Production has declined slightly, but supplies are still abundant due to new capacity. Inventories are rising [11]. - Demand: Demand is slowly improving. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate [11]. Asphalt - Supply: Production has increased, but supply is still restricted due to lack of quotas and device conversion [13]. - Demand: Terminal demand improvement is limited. The market may follow the crude oil market and fluctuate weakly [13]. Rubber - Supply: Supply is in the increasing period, but rainfall has affected production, and raw material prices are relatively firm [14]. - Demand: Demand is weak, and tire companies have a specific purchasing strategy. It is treated as fluctuating upward [14].

Group 1: Gold - The Fed's independence is challenged, and the risk of stagflation in the US increases. The market has fully priced in a September rate cut, which is the driving force for gold's rise. Gold's upward momentum may weaken in the short term but remains bullish before the rate cut is implemented [1]. Group 2: Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate is rising at a high level, downstream demand is relatively stable, and methanol port inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the import volume in September will remain high. The inland methanol market is strong, and the port methanol market basis is strong. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 2430 level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Coking Coal - Due to the military parade, some coal mines in Shanxi have stopped or reduced production, and port customs clearance has been tightened. After the parade, supply will gradually recover, and demand will enter the peak season. The short - term price still has support [4]. Group 4: Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have increased as expected. Iron ore demand is expected to return to a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate. If the recovery of molten iron production falls short of expectations, the fundamentals may weaken marginally [5]. Group 5: Rebar - Affected by the military parade, iron - water production has decreased significantly, demand has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The peak - season demand is expected to pick up, and the futures price still has support. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand [6]. Group 6: Live Pigs - The short - term market continues to show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is advisable to try to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [7]. Group 7: Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory are expected to increase in August, but exports are strong. The domestic palm oil market is trading actively, but pre - festival stocking has not started. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Group 8: Rapeseed Meal - The Ministry of Commerce has launched an anti - dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed. It is expected that the rapeseed meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Future attention should be paid to trade policies, downstream raw material inventories, and aquaculture conditions [8]. Group 9: Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's treasury bond trading operations is rising. The central bank's open - market trading of treasury bonds may support long - term treasury bonds. Attention should be paid to the subsequent trend of the stock market [8]. Group 10: Silver - US employment data is declining, economic downward pressure is increasing, and risk appetite is weakening, which puts pressure on silver. The short - term upward momentum of silver is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver [9]. Group 11: Soda Ash - The float glass operating rate is relatively stable, and inventory has increased slightly. The domestic soda ash market is weakening. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at the 1300 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. Group 12: Polypropylene - Polypropylene production has declined, but overall supply remains abundant, demand is slowly picking up, and commercial inventory has increased. The market price is fluctuating weakly. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 6980 level. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 13: Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. The Fed's rate - cut cycle may start, but it is difficult to change the supply - demand fundamentals, and oil prices will still be under pressure. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [10][12]. Group 14: Rubber - Rubber supply is in the increasing stage, but the increase is slower than expected due to rainfall. Demand is still weak. The market should be treated as fluctuating with a slightly bullish bias. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [12]. Group 15: PTA - PTA supply is expected to increase, the demand for weaving has slightly recovered, and orders are average. The cost side is weakening. An overall view of weak fluctuations is taken, and a strategy of shorting at high levels is recommended [13].

双焦期货周度报告 2025年09月08日 供应显著下滑 首轮提降开启 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内焦煤、焦炭市场偏弱运行。周五河北市 场部分钢厂开启首轮提降，对湿熄焦炭下调50元/吨、干熄焦炭 下调55元/吨，2025年9月8日零点执行。市场情绪减弱，后期需 关注钢焦企业复产速度以及铁水产量变化。 基本面分析：供应端，本周山西多地煤矿开启停产检修，原 煤日产较上周收缩，不过随着停产煤矿陆续复产，下旬供应或有 所恢复；本周主流大矿线上竞拍，区域内成交情况一般，整体下 跌且流拍率达约60%，高价资源流拍现象不减，现中间洗煤及贸易 表示下游采购询价较少，出货乏力；下游方面，本周五大钢材品 种供需双降，库存继续累增，需求表现较差，基本面持续改善尚 需时间。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment strategy for the bond market is "oscillating bearish, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, long - term bond yields are rising too fast. The central bank may introduce open - market bond trading policies soon [2][26] - The overall economic sentiment in China continues to expand, but the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter - cyclical regulation needs to be continuously strengthened [16] - The main tone of liquidity in the second half of the year is loose, but the probability of ultra - loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases sharply [18] - The stock - bond seesaw remains a negative factor for the bond market, and the supply - demand contradiction in the long - term bond market may be more prominent [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1. Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - term bond market into a downward trend, but the logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, making market operations difficult [9] - The July Politburo meeting set the tone for an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a certain guarantee for the steady growth of the economy in the second half of the year [9] 1.2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - China's economic sentiment continued to expand in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [13][16][26] - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently announced cuts in RMB deposit interest rates, with a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points [2][13] - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's bond trading operations has been gradually increasing recently [14] - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss topics such as government bond issuance management and central bank bond trading operations [15] - In August, the central bank carried out 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan, and also carried out 3000 billion yuan of net investment in outright reverse repurchases, with a total net investment of medium - term liquidity of 6000 billion yuan [15] 1.3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 1.3.1. Economic Fundamentals - China's economic sentiment continued to expand, but the economic downward pressure increased in July, and counter - cyclical regulation needs to be continuously strengthened [16] - China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations [16] - In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with export growth of 8% and import growth of 4.8% [16] 1.3.2. Policy Aspect - At the end of July, the balance of broad - money M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.2% [18] - The stock of social financing reached 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The newly added social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 1.3.3. Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has continued to decline, and the cost of funds has decreased [18] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, maintain adequate liquidity, and the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy [18] 1.3.4. Supply - Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds [21] - The special long - term treasury bond funds this year support equipment renewal with 200 billion yuan. The first batch of about 173 billion yuan has been allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields, and the second batch is in the process of project review and selection [21] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently [21] 1.3.5. Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term shock range downward, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [23] - The short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while the long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [23] 1.4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The central bank may introduce open - market bond trading policies soon to address the issue of the rapid rise in long - term bond yields [2][26] - The continuous increase in China's economic sentiment has further boosted risk appetite, and the stock - bond seesaw remains a negative factor for the bond market, which requires the guiding role of the central bank's open - market bond trading policies [26]

短期低位做多，逢高止盈 摘 要： 行情展望： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 从供应端来看，9 月份出栏量环比增加，养殖场出栏 积极性提高，屠宰厂收购顺畅，但企业暂无主动入库意向， 且终端按需采购，因此屠宰量难有明显波动。 从需求端来看，天气虽然转凉，但 9 月份屠宰量提 振并不明显，需求端基本维持稳定。 综合来看，生猪价格上涨空间有限，可尝试短多交易， 逢高止盈离场，等待机会。 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证期货 2.供应情况分析 图 2：样本企业能繁母猪存栏量月度走势图(万头 ...

钢材期货周度报告 2025年09月08日 限产影响弱化 盘面低位震荡 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡下跌，全国主要城市20mm三级 抗震螺纹钢均价3287元/吨，周环比跌39元/吨。周初利好情绪降 温，市场需求疲软，周中钢厂利润收窄，产量小幅减少，原材支 撑延续，库存增幅放缓，价格窄幅震荡，周尾"反内卷"消息提 振市场情绪，价格低位回升；利多利空因素与基本面博弈延续。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度持续走弱，铁水产量有所减少，品种 产量也有所下降。需求端：由于淡季向旺季转换的影响，市场商 家备货需求也逐渐加大，但市场成交则表现不稳。成本端：由于 铁矿石价格稳中趋强，废钢价格小幅下滑，焦炭价格维持平稳， 生产成本支撑维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com ...

降息预期行情加速，注意把控节奏 摘 要： 美国 8 月非农就业仅增长 2.2 万人，远不及市场预期的 7.5 万 人。6 月非农就业数据由此前的增加 2.7 万人大幅下修至减少 1.3 万人，为自 2020 年以来首次出现月度就业人数萎缩。8 月失业率升 至 4.3%，为 2021 年以来新高。美国非农和就业数据为 9 月降息扫 平障碍。联储理事库克已于 8 月 28 日在华盛顿联邦法院提起诉讼， 对特朗普总统以"其在抵押贷款申请中撒谎"为由试图解雇她的行 为提出质疑，这场诉讼拉开了关于美国央行独立性的历史性争端序 幕。市场担心美联储的独立性受到挑战，从而对未来美联储货币宽 松的步伐或加快，美元持续走低，将进一步推高美黄金，但是美联 储降息兑现后，黄金或面临回调，操作黄金需要把控节奏。 从近期公布的经济数据来看，美国二季度实际 GDP 年化修正值 环比增 3.3%，增幅高于预期值 3.1%和初值 3%，二季度核心个人消 费支出（PCE）物价指数年化修正值环比增 2.5%，与初值一致，但 低于预期值2.6%。美国8月ISM制造业指数从7月的48微升至48.7， 低于市场预期的49，连续六个月低于荣枯线。新订单指 ...