期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 原油期货：地缘溢价已充分 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：过去一段时间围绕美伊局势的地缘炒作是油价上涨的核心驱动。根据去年经验， 若地缘政治冲突威胁到霍尔木兹海峡，油价最高反弹幅度可达20%，即WTI66美元/桶、Brent72美元/桶、 SC500元/桶左右，上周最高油价恰好到达这个高度后便回落。后市若地缘事件并未在此基础上进一步激化， 则该价格高点或已成为本轮反弹行情的阻力。据央视报道，伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐当地时间2月1日 在接受媒体采访时表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"，地缘冲突有所降温。 2、对于后市。OPEC+一季度暂停增产，但2025年已累计增产明显，叠加美国、巴西、圭亚那等非OPEC+国家 产量高位运行，预计2026年非OPEC+供应增量约120万桶/日。委内瑞拉局势短期扰动出口，但中长期被市场解读 为潜在供应扩张预期，而非实质性中断风险。整体来看，供应增速压力仍存，供应变量短看伊朗（地缘发酵）， 长看OPEC+政策。 3、关注因素：1.地缘 ...

曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：美国总统特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，接替将于5 月结束任期的鲍威尔。如果沃什最终执掌美联储，市场可能会看到美联储政策框架的显著调整，并认为沃 什的政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。贵金属、比特币等货币属性较强板块在美元指数 大幅反弹的背景下，大幅下跌，贵金属的过分做多的热情短期得到冷却，但是贵金属的长期走势并没有实 质性的改变，沃什上台后，其政治目标的实现情况需要进一步观察。美国总统特朗普表示，美国正向伊朗 方向部署多于此前美对委内瑞拉行动的舰船力量。特朗普称，美国希望与伊朗达成协议，若无法达成， "将拭目以待事态发展"。地缘政治和关税方面，依然存在诸多不确定性因素，对贵金属存在一定的支持， 但是短期由于贵金属前期涨幅过大，美联储主席确认为沃什之际，贵金属实现短期回调，中期依然为高位 震荡，后续美联储降息线索或是观察贵金属走势的重要方面。 关注因素：1.中东地区地缘风险演化 2.美国关税政策 3.美国经济数据 期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 贵金属 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the palm oil industry. Instead, it suggests a wait - and - see approach for palm oil futures [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 26 to February 2, 2026, the palm oil futures and spot markets showed a pattern of "rising first and then adjusting, with high - level fluctuations". The core drivers were the realization of seasonal production cuts in Malaysia, the recovery of exports, and the expectation of an increase in Indonesia's export tax. Later in the week, the cooling of the macro - sentiment and profit - taking led to a price correction, but the overall strength remained unchanged [1]. - The supply side is contracting. According to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. Seasonal production cuts accelerated, and labor shortages restricted the harvesting efficiency. January's production may hit a new low for the year [1]. - The demand side is recovering. According to ITS/AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 25 increased by 7.97% - 9.97% month - on - month. Pre - Ramadan stocking in India and pre - purchase before the increase in Indonesia's export tax led to continuous improvement in exports [1]. - Indonesia plans to raise the special export tax from 10% to 12.5% - 15% starting from March, which is expected to force international buyers to stock up in advance and boost short - term demand expectations. However, short - term profit - taking by long - position traders on the futures market led to a rapid price decline. It is recommended to wait and see, waiting for funds to enter and the price to restart [1]. - Factors to watch include Malaysia's palm oil production and export data, as well as the repair of the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - From January 26 - 29, bulls dominated, and the price rose for three consecutive days. From January 30 to February 2, it fluctuated at a high level, encountering resistance at 9396 yuan and then falling back. Funds were mostly long but cautious [1]. - The policy expectation of Indonesia's export tax increase supports short - term demand, but short - term profit - taking led to a price drop, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Weekly Fundamental Data Changes - For the 5 - month (May) 24 - degree palm oil, the CNF in South China is 1100, the forward exchange rate is 6.9075, the import cost is 9107, the disk price is 9010, and the profit against the disk is - 97 [3]. - For the 9 - month (September) 24 - degree palm oil, the CNF in South China is 1115, the forward exchange rate is 6.8646, the import cost is 9174, the disk price is 8950, and the profit against the disk is - 224 [3].

蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2240-2330元/吨，广 东价格波动在2220-2290元/吨。进口表需偏弱，港口甲醇库存高位窄幅累积，市场可流通量高位，上方存压 制。但由于国际形势不稳，宏观面向好，在情绪的提振下，市场震荡偏强运行。内地甲醇价格持续下行，主 产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1785-1805元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2100-2130元/吨。内地产销 两地劈叉运行，节前企业仍以降价排库为主基调，叠加运费高居不下，西北产区纷纷让利导致出厂持续走低。 而消费市场因到货成本抬升则延续相对坚挺趋势， 2026年2月2日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位，震荡偏弱 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，本周港口到货预期 下降，甲醇下游整体需求预计有所回升。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升，本周预期下降。预计甲醇价格 近期震荡偏弱，05合约上方压力2350一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化。 | 甲 ...

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 铜：冲高回落，回归现实 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周内外盘铜价强势拉涨，纷纷创下新高，价格触及高点后迅速回调，波动 明显。宏观面上，美联储本年度第一次议息会议结束，利率稳定不变，市场此前已对降息政策暂缓有 所预估，美元指数走弱至历史低位，特朗普提名沃什为美联储下一任主席，带动美元指数回升。供应 端，长期供应短缺故事依旧坚实，矿端扰动事件频发，中国冶炼厂因加工费低迷导致的减产计划，加 剧供应侧担忧，矿端与冶炼端的供应紧张问题在底部为铜价提供支撑。需求端，临近春节，传统下游 进入淡季，采购活动清淡，叠加随期货高涨的现货价格，对实体需求产生抑制作用。 本次铜的暴力拉升主要是资金面和市场情绪共同推动的结果，极大的偏离的基本面，创下历史新 高后，市场情绪趋于敏感，获利了结压力与监管关注度均在上升，周五立即出现大幅回调。在投机情 绪消退后，铜价还是要逐步回归基本面主导的"强预期"和"弱现实"格局，短期内警惕铜价在高位 的波动性，长期则等待需求验证。 关注因素：美国最新经济数据、下游需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, PTA prices declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. At the end of the year, terminal demand weakened, loom operating rates steadily declined, and polyester load dropped to the lowest point of the year. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans, and the supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. Crude oil weakened, leading to the decline of PTA [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of PTA has slightly weakened. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans. Around the Spring Festival, the terminal will have holidays, and polyester load will drop to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. From the cost side, the Zhonghua Quanzhou PX plant restarted at the end of January, and there are no maintenance plans in February. With high PX profits, it is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will operate at a high level in February. Currently, oil prices are generally at a high level, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. If geopolitical risks do not expand further, oil prices have a downward pressure, and the cost side may drag down PTA. Geopolitical risks should be monitored in February [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, PTA declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, down 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. Terminal demand weakened at the end of the year, loom operating rates declined, and polyester load dropped to the annual low. In February, PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, with significant inventory build - up. Crude oil weakened, causing PTA to fall [2]. Key Concerns - Factors to watch include polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | PTA - related Index | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,270.00 | 5,400.00 | - 130.00 | - 2.41% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 142.87 | 139.28 | 3.59 | 2.58% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 81.71 | 85.52 | - 3.81 | - 4.46% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 42.41 | 51.20 | - 8.79 | - 17.17% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 316 | 357 | - 41.00 | - 11.48% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 5,050 | 5,120 | - 70.00 | - 1.37% | Daily | [4] PX Market - There are figures showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, CFR naphtha prices in Japan and their spreads, PX and MX prices in Taiwan and their spreads, and MX FOB prices in South Korea and the US Gulf and their spreads [8][9][10]. PX Supply - There are figures presenting PX production in Asia and China, PX monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][15][17]. PTA Market - There is a figure showing PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. PTA Supply - There are figures showing PTA monthly output, PTA operating rate, and PTA social inventory [22][26]. PTA Consumption - There are figures showing PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament and staple fiber, and loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][29][32]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a figure showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [38].

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 钢材：市场驱动不足，钢价震荡运行 展望：综合来看，螺纹钢市场短期将处于多空博弈交织之中。相对偏低水平库存和宏观暖意限制价格大 幅下跌的空间，而疲软的实际需求和持续的累库过程也抑制了上涨动能，预计价格将以小幅盘整为主，整体 走势偏稳，趋势性行情需待节后需求表现。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 227.98 | 228.1 | -0.12 | -0.05% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 149.13 | 148.98 | 0.15 | 0.10% | 周度 | | 螺纹社会库存 | 万吨 | 326.4 | 303.12 | 23.28 | 7.68% | 周度 | | 热卷钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 77.25 | 76.64 | 0.61 | 0.80% | 周度 | | 热卷社会库存 | 万吨 ...

2026年2月2日 周报 期货研究报告 纯碱：新产能投放压力较大，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：国内纯碱市场走势以稳为主，企业积极发货，节前下游补库。隆众资讯数据监 测，上周国内纯碱产量78.31万吨，环比增加1.14万吨，涨幅1.47%。纯碱综合产能利用率84.19%，环比下降 2.23%，检修企业少，供应高位。周内国内纯碱厂家库存154.42万吨，周增加2.30万吨，涨幅1.52%，库存窄 幅增加，个别企业增量，纯碱企业待发订单下降，目前维持10+天。 展望：当前纯碱企业利润不佳，本周国内纯碱开工预期高位上升，纯碱下游需求预计近期较稳。下游 浮法玻璃预期本周产量较稳；光伏产品自4月1日起，取消增值税出口退税，光伏玻璃下游拿货量持续加大， 供给本周预计大致稳定，行业仍存降库预期。纯碱供需宽松背景下，预期近期纯碱企业库存仍维持高位运 行，新产能投放施压，后期重点关注纯碱开工变化。预计纯碱价格近期震荡运行，05合约上方压力1250一 线。 关注因素：1.纯碱开工变化；2.新产能投放进度；3.纯碱企业库存变化。 1. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current biggest risk in the crude oil market is the geopolitical situation around Iran. In the long - term, the key factors affecting crude oil prices are the pressure of oversupply and market expectations. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The PVC market is expected to face price pressure and fluctuate in the short - term due to high supply, weak domestic demand, and rapid inventory accumulation [2]. - The short - term downward space for pig prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of fertile sows [4]. - The domestic soybean meal market is supported by terminal feed enterprise inventory needs, but due to high oil mill operating rates and future supply pressure, the rebound amplitude is limited, and caution is advised [5]. - The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival as the coal mine output will decline during the holiday and the fundamentals remain healthy [5]. - The iron ore fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the price will fluctuate as steel enterprises increase inventory replenishment and there are weather disturbances in the shipping end [6]. - For palm oil, it is recommended that previous long - positions take profits, wait and see, and avoid chasing high prices due to high futures prices, weak spot price increases, and future supply pressure [6]. - The rebar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand weakens seasonally, inventory accumulation accelerates, but there is cost support [8]. - The asphalt market is expected to accumulate inventory in February. It has strengthened significantly under geopolitical and cost drivers, but there is a risk of a sharp fall, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions [8]. - For synthetic rubber, it is recommended to take short positions at a relatively high level in the short - term as the supply remains high, but production is in a loss state and inventory changes are limited [9]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term as the port inventory increase is expected to slow down and the spot market performs well despite high domestic production and weak downstream demand [10]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term due to high supply, average demand, and increasing manufacturer inventory [11]. - The copper market is mainly affected by market sentiment in the short - term, with high volatility as the supply is tight and high prices suppress downstream consumption [12]. - The aluminum price may fluctuate greatly recently as the market is affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. - The bond market is bullish as the January PMI decline indicates increased economic downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [13]. - The silver price may follow the gold price in the short - term and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and the interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]. - The gold price may enter a short - term downward trend but still oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of January 30, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 411, unchanged from the previous week and 68 less than the same period last year. "OPEC +" will maintain the suspension of production increase in March. The biggest risk is the Iranian situation, and long - term price factors are supply - demand and expectations. Short - term wait - and - see [1]. - **PVC**: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4780 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.93%, up 0.19%. Social inventory is 120.64 million tons, up 2.45%. High supply, weak demand, and rapid inventory accumulation lead to expected price pressure [2]. - **Asphalt**: In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is planned to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. Supply and demand both decline, and inventory accumulation is expected. There is a risk of a sharp fall [8]. Agriculture - **Pig**: As of January 30, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.57 kg, up 0.06 kg. The weekly slaughter rate is 36.98%, down 0.19%. The price is stable and slightly stronger, and short - term downward space is limited [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of last Friday, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. Terminal inventory needs support the price, but there is future supply pressure, and the rebound is limited [5]. Metals - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of 45 ports is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.5573 million tons. The daily port clearance volume is 3.3231 million tons, up 215,800 tons. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the price will fluctuate [6]. - **Copper**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman may affect long - term liquidity expectations. The supply is tight, and high prices suppress demand. Short - term volatility is high [12]. - **Aluminum**: The strike in Guinea, a major bauxite supplier, causes supply concerns. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the price may fluctuate greatly [12]. - **Silver**: The nomination of the Fed Chairman affects the dollar index and pressures precious metals. It may follow gold in the short - term and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [13]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances support the price, but the Fed's future policy causes tightening expectations. It may enter a short - term downward trend and oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [14]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The average national profit per ton of coke is - 55 yuan/ton. The coal mine output will decline during the holiday, and the price will fluctuate before the Spring Festival [5]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of January 30, the butadiene capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, up 1.81%. The supply is high, but production is in a loss state, and short - term short positions are recommended [9]. - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2270 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The port inventory is increasing, but the expected increase slows down. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1234 yuan/ton. The production is high, demand is average, and inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Long - term Treasury Bond**: The January PMI decline indicates economic downward pressure, which is bullish for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [13].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】中国甲醇港口样本库存量147.21万吨，周上 升1.46万吨；甲醇样本生产企业库存42.41万吨，周下降1.42万 吨，样本企业订单待发26.57万吨，周上升2.74万吨；江苏太仓 甲醇市场价2282元/吨，下降2元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率 89.92%，环比-1.18%；下游 总产能利 用率71.26%，周下 降 1.3%。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求下降，甲醇港口库存 继续积累，江苏沿江主流库区提货减弱。内地甲醇市场窄幅震 荡，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈成交一 般。甲醇港口库存高位上升，现货市场表现尚可，预计短期震 荡偏强。 【短评-黄金】美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已 获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府再次面临部分 "停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗 尽。评：美国总统特朗普召开其第二任期第十次内阁会议后的 不到一个小时内，黄金再度反弹。但是黄金白银大幅波动后， 表明市场的恐高心理，注意管控风险，关注地缘扰动。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月30日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzf ...