摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡上涨，虽弱现实格局压制钢价 上涨驱动力，但受宏观利好消息影响，市场情绪有所提振，市场 活跃度小幅回升，原材支撑仍存。截至10月31日，全国主要城市 20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3261元/吨，周环比涨42元/吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由强转弱，铁水产量小幅下降，但品 种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于外部降息周和中美关系缓和的 影响，期现货市场明显上涨，从而带动市场投机需求放大，各品 种市场成交有所上升。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳中上涨，废钢 价格小幅上涨，焦炭价格大幅上涨，生产成本支撑维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 钢材期货周度报告 2025年11月03日 旺季进入尾声 盘面先扬后抑 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢 ...

期价震荡偏弱，空头主导 摘 要： 行情展望： 供应端来看，随着规模场出栏计划逐步增加，市场猪 源供应趋于宽松，同时二次育肥进场积极性减弱，屠宰企 业收购顺畅，压价心态增强。需求端来看，终端消费尚未 出现明显提振，屠宰企业目前仍以鲜销为主，主动分割入 库意愿不强，普遍维持较高的鲜销率。综合来看，生猪价 格维持缓慢下跌走势，生猪主力LH2601合约跌破5日均线 关键支撑位，MACD 绿柱持续放大，技术形态偏向弱势， 短期下行压力仍存。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控 动态等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专 ...

二十届四中全会开完以后，人民币汇率升值，股市突破长期震 荡区间，股债跷跷板利空债市。但是央行公告称，为保持银行体系 流动性充裕，10 月 27 日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标 方式开展 9000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。由于 10 月有 7000 亿元 MLF 到期，本月央行 MLF 净投放将达到 2000 亿元，为央行连 续第 8 个月对 MLF 加量续做。流动性和股债跷跷板共同作用，使得 债市操作难度加大。央行行长潘功胜在《国务院关于金融工作情况 的报告》中表示，下一步将落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，执行好 各项已出台货币政策措施，持续释放政策效能，研究储备新的政策 举措。巩固资本市场向好势头，健全稳市机制。 2025 金融街论坛年会开幕，央行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局 长李云泽、证监会主席吴清重磅发声。潘功胜表示，央行将继续坚 持支持性的货币政策立场，恢复公开市场国债买卖操作。公开市场 买卖国债，有利于控制远端债市利率，进一步减弱股债跷跷板对债 市的影响，有效控制住利率和资金成本，从而有效进行对实体经济 赋能，增加逆周期调节力度。 逆周期调节或增加，震荡略偏多 摘 要： 宁证期货期货 ...

供应难有起色 三轮提涨开启 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周炼焦煤市场偏强运行、焦炭价格暂稳运行。 周一河北、山东等地主流钢厂对焦炭价格招标上调，涨幅为50- 55元/吨，焦炭第二轮提涨落地。周三发起第三轮提涨，钢厂暂 未回应。 基本面分析：供应方面，部分矿因年产任务即将完成产量有 所缩减。叠加产地安全环保检查产量偏紧张，供应明显缩量。另 外进口蒙煤结构性调整煤种，市场主焦资源偏紧，本周通关有所 恢复。下游方面，宏观利好催动市场价格重心整体上移，钢材库 存去化明显；焦炭开启了第三轮提涨，涨幅50-55元/吨提涨落地 概率较大。 双焦期货周度报告 2025年11月03日 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周炼焦煤市场偏强运行、焦炭价格暂稳运行。周一河北、山东等地主流钢厂对焦炭 ...

Key Points of the Research Report Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations of various commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products, with expectations of price trends such as oscillation, weakening, or strengthening based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Metals - **螺纹钢 (Rebar)**: Fundamentals continue to improve, but inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. After a short - term macro sentiment cools, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. However, there is cost support and potential policy benefits, so there is a rebound drive after a weak adjustment [1] - **黄金 (Gold)**: There are differences in the Fed's decision on another interest rate cut, increasing market volatility. Although the US government shutdown has reduced the risk - aversion sentiment, the buying power of gold remains strong. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - **焦煤 (Coking Coal)**: Supply is affected by frequent inspections, mine production cuts, and other factors, with limited increase. Demand remains stable, and the upstream coal mines have reduced their inventories to a low level in recent years. The coking coal spot market is stable and slightly strong, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **铁矿石 (Iron Ore)**: Supply has short - term disturbances, and demand has decreased significantly due to environmental protection and profit factors. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not obvious. After the macro factors are realized, the market may turn to fundamental trading, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **白银 (Silver)**: Positive information from China - US talks and the better - than - expected economic recovery in the Eurozone have increased risk appetite and boosted silver. It is expected to oscillate upwards with limited downside space [7] Agricultural Products - **生猪 (Live Pigs)**: In early November, the market supply of pigs is becoming more abundant, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened. Terminal consumption has not been significantly boosted. The price of live pigs is expected to decline slowly, and the main contract LH2601 is under short - term downward pressure [5] - **菜粕 (Rapeseed Meal)**: Supply is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. The domestic rapeseed crushing has basically stagnated, and the oil mill operating rate is low. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6] - **棕榈油 (Palm Oil)**: Affected by rapeseed oil, the futures price has broken through the previous low. Although domestic spot demand has been released, terminal consumption has not improved, and future arrivals are expected to be large. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] Energy - **原油 (Crude Oil)**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in December, and the market will be under pressure for the rest of the year. The oversupply pressure will be slightly relieved in the first quarter of next year. It should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [11] - **沥青 (Bitumen)**: The capacity utilization rate has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the peak - season demand is not strong, increasing the downward pressure. The overall trend is weak - oscillation [12] Financial Products - **长期国债 (Long - term Treasury Bonds)**: The PMI data shows increased economic downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be intensified. The open - market trading of treasury bonds is likely to lower interest rates, which is a positive factor for the bond market. Due to liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **甲醇 (Methanol)**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories fluctuate slightly. The inland market is weak, and the port basis is weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2210 [8] - **纯碱 (Soda Ash)**: The float glass industry is stable with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high - level supply and low - level demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1240 [9] - **聚丙烯 (Polypropylene)**: Supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to concentrated equipment maintenance, and commercial inventories have decreased. Demand has slightly increased, but the market trading atmosphere has slowed down. The cost support is strong. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6620 [10] Rubber - **橡胶 (Rubber)**: In November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization. However, China's rubber inventories have continued to decline, providing medium - term support. The downward space of rubber prices may be limited [13]

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: After the China-US summit, the risk aversion sentiment may continue to cool down. Although the US government is still shut down, the buying power of gold remains strong. Gold may fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and investors should adopt a range - trading mindset. Pay attention to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - **Crude Oil**: There is a mix of long - term supply surplus pressure and short - term positive factors. Short - term positive factors include last week's favorable EIA inventory data, US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the trade relaxation agreement reached after the China - US meeting in Busan, South Korea. Wait for the results of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The counter - cyclical policy continues to be intensified, and the economic recovery has strong resilience, which is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. Open - market treasury bond trading, liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect make bond market operations more difficult. Adopt a slightly bullish trading mindset in the medium term [4]. - **Silver**: Positive information from the China - US talks and better - than - expected economic recovery in the eurozone increase risk appetite and boost silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [4]. - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, providing solid support on the demand side. However, with new plants starting trial operations, the expectation of weakening supply - demand is strong, and the weakening of crude oil prices weakens the cost support. The PTA market may decline slightly in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - **Rubber**: China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which provides medium - term support. With the reduction of macro - pressure, the market is expected to move upward. Adopt a bullish trading mindset at low levels [5]. - **Live Pigs**: The national live pig price mainly declined yesterday. After the price continued to rise, the terminal acceptance is poor, and the entry of second - fattening pigs decreased significantly. The price may fluctuate weakly in the near future. However, the slaughter pressure of farmers at the end of the month is not large, and the demand is slowly improving, providing short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As the end - of - month export and production data of Malaysian palm oil are about to be released, the market pays high attention. The fundamentals of palm oil are expected to improve in November. Palm oil will have bottom support and fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and the low - inventory status of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of rapeseed meal price decline. With the stagnation of domestic rapeseed crushing and low oil mill operating rates, it is recommended to buy at low levels. Pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade policies [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is relatively stable. The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly. The methanol market in Jiangsu shows inventory reduction, and the inland market price declines. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2225. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply remaining at a high level. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [9]. - **Plastic**: On the supply side, the number of temporary shutdowns of LLDPE plants increases, production proportion decreases, and production enterprise inventory declines. On the demand side, although the peak season is not prosperous, downstream factory operations increase, and they maintain just - in - time replenishment. The cost support weakens. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly with a bullish bias in the short term, with support at 6930. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Product Category Metals - **Gold**: After the China - US summit, risk aversion cools, but gold buying power is strong. Medium - term high - level fluctuation [1]. - **Silver**: Positive China - US talks and better - than - expected eurozone economic recovery boost silver. Bullish bias [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Long - term supply surplus and short - term positive factors coexist. Wait for OPEC+ meeting results [2]. Bonds - **Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Counter - cyclical policy intensifies, and economic resilience is strong. Bond market operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is low, but new plants and weakening crude oil prices may lead to a short - term decline [5]. - **Methanol**: High production, stable demand, and slightly fluctuating inventory. Short - term weak fluctuation [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Stable float glass operation and decreasing inventory. Soda ash market is stable, with short - term fluctuation [9]. - **Plastic**: Supply reduction and demand increase, with weakening cost support. Slightly bullish short - term fluctuation [10]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Price decline and short - term support due to end - of - month factors [6]. - **Palm Oil**: End - of - month data attention and improving fundamentals in November. Short - term bottom - supported fluctuation [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply shortage and low inventory. Recommended to buy at low levels [7]. - **Rubber**: Declining inventory and reduced macro - pressure. Bullish at low levels [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The overall supply - demand situation still suppresses oil prices, and the short - term market is weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+ production plans [1]. - The upcoming Sino - US summit may lead to a continuous decline in risk aversion, but gold buying power remains strong, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - PTA has weak upward momentum due to weakening supply - demand expectations and crude oil adjustments [3]. - Rubber has a low - position bullish outlook as Chinese rubber inventories continue to decline and macro - pressure eases [3]. - The hog futures price has rebounded, with short - term support but limited upward momentum, and breeders should hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - Palm oil is under pressure and expected to run weakly in the short term due to increased supply expectations and loose domestic supply [4]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. - The bond market has increased bullish factors but is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. - Silver is bullish in the long - term, oscillating in the short - term, and there are opportunities to go long [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. - L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA report on October 24: commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels (a 1.62% decline), gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 1.3644 million barrels per day. Western Russian port exports are expected to be about 2.33 million barrels per day in October [1]. - US crude oil inventory decline and optimistic trade talk prospects led to rising international oil prices, but supply - demand still suppresses prices [1]. Gold - Sino - US summit is scheduled for October 30. Risk aversion may decline, but gold buying power is strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. PTA - PTA social inventory is 3.1413 million tons, a decrease of 50,300 tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization is around 87.51% [3]. - Polyester has low inventory and stable demand, but PTA has weak upward momentum due to new device commissioning and expected supply - demand weakening [3]. Rubber - Thai raw material glue prices: 55.5 Thai baht per kilogram for glue and 53.25 Thai baht per kilogram for cup - rubber. Chinese natural rubber social inventory is 1.0389 million tons, a 1% decline [3]. - Chinese rubber inventory decline and reduced macro - pressure support a low - position bullish view [3]. Hog - On October 29, the national average pork price was 18.03 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; egg price was 7.37 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% decline [4]. - Hog prices showed a north - weak and south - strong pattern. Futures prices rebounded with short - term support but limited upward power [4]. Palm Oil - Pakistan is considering increasing Indonesian palm oil import quotas. In September 2025, Pakistan's palm oil import value reached $481 million, a significant increase from $251 million last year [4]. - GAPKI expects a 10% increase in Indonesian palm oil production in 2025, suppressing prices. Domestic supply is loose, and palm oil is under pressure in the short term [4]. Soybean - Rabobank expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177 million tons (a 3% increase), export volume to be 111 million tons (basically unchanged), and planting area to reach 48.8 million hectares (a 2% increase) [5]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. Short - term Treasury Bond - Shibor short - end varieties declined. Overnight decreased by 5.5 BP to 1.414%, 7 - day by 1.8 BP to 1.512%, 14 - day by 8.8 BP to 1.559%, and 1 - month by 0.1 BP to 1.556% [5]. - Loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but it is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. Silver - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said further December rate cuts are not certain [6]. - Rate cuts increase risk appetite, making silver bullish in the long - term and oscillating in the short - term with limited downside [6]. Methanol - Jiangsu Taicang methanol price is 2210 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan per ton. Domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization is 87.4% (a 2.13% decline), and downstream total capacity utilization is 75.11% (a 1.53% decline) [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2240. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - National heavy - duty soda ash mainstream price is 1275 yuan per ton. Weekly production is 740,500 tons (a 3.93% decline), and factory inventory is 1.7021 million tons (a 0.09% increase) [7]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 1240. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. Plastic - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7085 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton. LLDPE weekly production is 309,100 tons (a 0.17% increase), and production enterprise inventory is 139,200 tons (a 27.65% decline) [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, with support at 6980. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Commodity Market Outlook**: The overall commodity market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and market sentiment. For example, oil prices are short - term volatile but suppressed by supply - demand fundamentals, and precious metals are waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision [1][4]. - **Impact of Key Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, potential sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions have significant impacts on the financial and commodity markets. These events create uncertainties and drive market sentiment [1][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreased significantly. The API data led to a short - term jump in oil prices. However, supply - demand factors still suppress oil prices. The market is currently weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+'s potential production increase plan. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is relatively low, providing support from the demand side. However, new production facilities are being tested, leading to a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand balance. With the overnight decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support has weakened. The PTA market is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: The US government remains in a shutdown state, and the Fed is about to hold an interest - rate meeting. Precious metals are oscillating while waiting for the meeting's outcome. Although the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, the buying power for gold remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and a cautious approach is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - **Silver**: The market has basically priced in another interest - rate cut by the Fed. Silver is expected to be bullish in the long term, with short - term oscillations and limited downside. Opportunities for long positions should be monitored [4]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: The GAPKI reported that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August. However, multiple mining associations are requesting the Indonesian government to cancel the B50 plan, raising concerns about future demand. The expected increase in supply is putting pressure on palm oil prices, which are expected to be weak in the short term [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of rapeseed meal is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. As the import cost of soybean meal rises due to the rebound in international soybean prices, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - **Pork**: On October 28, the national pork price rose significantly. With the improvement in consumption due to cooling weather, the reduction in end - of - month slaughter pressure, and the entry of second - round fattening, there is short - term positive support. The pork futures price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward momentum is limited. Farmers should hedge according to their slaughter schedules [3]. **Industrial Metals** - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 to 26, the global iron ore shipment volume increased. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while terminal demand remains weak, and port inventories continue to accumulate. However, positive factors such as China - US talks and the Fed's potential interest - rate cut have boosted market sentiment. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and interval trading is recommended for the Iron Ore 2601 contract [6]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to increase in October, potentially reaching a new high. However, the demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets is strong, leading to a significant inventory reduction. The market shows a pattern of supply - demand balance with a trend of de - stocking [8]. - **Rebar**: On October 28, domestic steel prices rose slightly. Positive news such as environmental protection restrictions in Hebei has boosted market confidence, and the tight supply of coking coal and the second - round price increase of coke have provided cost support. However, as the traditional peak season approaches its end, steel demand is difficult to increase, and the future increase in raw material prices is uncertain. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited [9]. **Others** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which will support the treasury bond futures market. Open - market operations of treasury bonds will affect prices from the supply - demand perspective, and are likely to be a positive factor for the bond market. Considering factors such as liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market operations, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the medium term [5][6]. - **Natural Rubber**: China's natural rubber inventory has been continuously decreasing, and warehouse receipts have been declining. The reduction in macro - level pressure is driving the market upward. A bullish approach is recommended for natural rubber at low prices [7].

Report Summary Key Points of Each Product Steel Products - **Rebar**: On October 27, domestic steel prices mostly rose, with the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities reaching 3234 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to positive macro - expectations, potential balance between supply and demand, and cost support, short - term steel prices may fluctuate upward [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 - 26, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased. Considering supply, demand, inventory, and macro factors, short - term iron ore prices may fluctuate upward [4]. - **Coke**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 41 yuan/ton. With supply weakening due to cost pressure and demand slightly declining, but with relatively strong iron - water production and cost support, the coke market will fluctuate upward [5]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil exports are 3.6 million barrels per day. The market is worried about OPEC supply. With upcoming macro - events and sanctions on Russia under observation, oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward this week, being in a stage of short - term geopolitical bullishness versus long - term supply - demand bearishness [2]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On October 27, the national pig price generally rose. With improved consumption due to cooling and reduced end - of - month slaughter pressure, short - term prices are expected to be strong. Pig futures prices have rebounded, but the upward momentum may be limited [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil increased. With concerns about the B50 plan and weakening demand while production increases, palm oil prices will face downward pressure in the short term [7]. - **Soybean**: Imported soybean prices are stable, and domestic demand offsets trade - tension pressure, with short - term soybean futures (bean two) stabilizing. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong, with a bullish market sentiment [8]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: The market believes the probability of a 10 - month interest rate cut is 97%. Silver is long - term bullish but short - term downward - fluctuating, with limited downward space [9]. - **Gold**: The weakening of risk - aversion sentiment has led to a significant correction in gold prices. The expected interest rate cut has limited impact. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations by the central bank is a bullish factor for the bond market. However, due to liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, with a mid - term slightly bullish outlook [10]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, stable demand, and a slight increase in port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 2245 [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with stable production, general demand, and a slight increase in inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with support at 1235 [12]. - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to remain high, while downstream demand is increasing. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, with support at 7000 [13]. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple commodities, including steel, energy, agricultural products, precious metals, financial products, and chemical products. It assesses each commodity's supply, demand, inventory, and macro - factors to predict their short - and medium - term price trends, providing investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and risk - management advice. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips. The supply - side is expected to be loose, which suppresses the vegetable oil price. The latest export data of Malaysian palm oil from the 1st to the 25th shows a month - on - month decline, increasing inventory pressure and weighing on the palm oil price. The domestic price is stable, with light trading volume, mainly executing previous contracts [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Palm Oil Price Market Review - The report shows a chart of the domestic soybean - palm oil futures price difference trend (yuan/ton), but specific data analysis is not provided [4]. 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents a chart of China's palm oil import data, but specific data analysis is not provided [6]. 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows a chart of the average transaction price statistics of palm oil (yuan/ton), but specific data analysis is not provided [8]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - The report presents a chart of palm oil import cost and profit (yuan/ton), but specific data analysis is not provided [10]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The domestic spot price remains low, the basis fluctuates weakly, and there has been a long - term situation of having prices but no market. The continuous increase in ship purchases for the near - term, especially for the November shipment, has led to an overly loose near - end supply. Coupled with weak spot demand, even if the futures price drops significantly, the basis still has no chance to rise. To relieve inventory pressure, middle - and upstream enterprises sell at discounted prices, and terminal low - price replenishment increases. Waiting for the realization of the expected production reduction in the producing areas or news guidance, the palm oil price has certain support at the bottom in the short - term and is expected to mainly fluctuate [12].