今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】6月23日，河北山东主流钢厂针对焦炭采购 价格下调湿熄50元/吨，干熄55元/吨，2025年6月23日0时起执 行。评：供应端，受陕西、内蒙古等地环保监察影响，部分焦 企开工依然受限，焦炭产量延续下滑。需求端，铁水产量小幅 回升，焦炭刚需仍存。库存方面，多数钢厂保持控量采购节 奏，焦企出货仍有压力，但在供应减少下，部分焦企库存回 落。总体来看，第四轮提降已落地，焦企利润被压缩，供应有 继续下跌预期。预计盘面短期承压震荡。 【短评-PVC】 华东SG-5型PVC 4830元/吨，下降10元/吨； PVC产能利用率78.62%，周下降0.63%；陕西金泰二期及福建万 华二期新投产计划，供应压力增加；PVC社会库存56.93万吨， 环比减少0.74%；全国电石法PVC生产企业平均毛利-494元/吨， 周上升18元/吨；全国乙烯法PVC生产企业平均毛利-640元/吨， 周降低80元/吨。评：PVC生产企业检修规模环比增加，PVC供应 仍维持高位，利润不佳，后续仍有新投产增量预期，需求维持 平稳，出口转入淡季。成本端原油价格下跌，PVC行业库存累库 及需求淡季，现货市场承压，终 ...

库存小幅上升，需求仍偏弱 摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润不佳，前期点火产线预计出 玻璃，亦有产线存放水预期，供应或小幅下降。浮法玻璃终端需求仍 偏弱，下游深加工企业订单偏弱，浮法玻璃企业库存小幅上升。预计 玻璃价格近期震荡偏弱，09合约上方压力1050一线。建议短线逢高做 空，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第2章 | 价格影响因素分析 | 5 | | 第3章 | 行情展望与投资策略 | 7 | | 免责申明 | | 9 | 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电 ...

棕榈油暂利多出尽，短期震荡 摘 要： 行情展望： 中东地缘冲突和美国生物柴油政策带来的影响暂时 结束，如今利多出尽。但是，有消息称，印尼和欧盟可能 在敲定贸易协议方面取得了重大进展，该协议有望对印度 尼西亚的关键出口产品，包括粗棕油，实现零关税。或将 极大刺激印尼棕榈油出口，支撑棕榈油价格继续上涨。不 过目前仍需等待消息证实，短期内预计棕榈油或以震荡运 行为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：棕榈油均价走势（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 2. 供应情况分析 图 2：中国棕榈油进口数据 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term outlook of fluctuating with a slight upward bias for precious metals [5][30] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US involvement in the Middle East conflict bring more uncertainties to the subsequent war situation, which is the main event affecting precious metals recently [30] - Due to the continuous rise in crude oil prices, US inflation and inflation expectations may be under pressure again, and the Fed's interest rate cut faces more uncertainties [30] - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The main trading and focus in the market are the Middle East geopolitics, the US economic outlook, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm [10] - Previously, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased the short - term upward momentum of silver, leading to a differentiated market between gold and silver. Subsequently, the increase in Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the risk - aversion sentiment, and the economic downturn expectation drove up the price of gold, and the market of silver and gold diverged again [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On June 21st, US President Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed", but Iran stated that the Fordo nuclear facility was not severely damaged and the above - ground part could be repaired [2][13][21] - Fed Governor Waller said that he expected tariffs not to significantly push up inflation, and the Fed might cut interest rates as early as the July meeting [13] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached 248,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [15][17] - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, believing that the US interest rate should be lowered by 250 basis points [15] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized that Iran would not accept any "imposed peace or war" and would not ignore any attacks on its territory [15] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation expectation to 3% [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - In April, US durable goods orders declined more than expected due to a sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders. The core capital goods orders decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, and the overall durable goods orders decreased by 6.3% month - on - month [17] - In April, US retail sales increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month [17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a new high since October 2024. The May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year [17] - In May, non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [17] - The Fed has increased its expectation of economic downward pressure and inflation upward pressure [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and the possible increase in tariffs have led to an escalation of geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties in tariffs, which may interfere with the Fed's interest rate cut decision [21] - The risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced, increasing the bullish factors for gold [21] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The final value of the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing expansion speed and increasing economic downward pressure [22] - Due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, European and American stock markets declined, and risk appetite decreased [22] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors such as positive signals from US trade negotiations, the release of positive momentum from China's holiday consumption, increased market confidence in the Chinese economy, and the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB has appreciated significantly [28] - After the May Day holiday, the RMB has a slight depreciation but still maintains an appreciation trend. The exchange rate will not be an important factor affecting precious metals [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30]

价格支撑减弱，多单择机进场 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，部分企业或维持降重出栏，二育和散 户大体重猪源阶段性集中上量，供给端压力仍存。 从需求端来看，天气逐渐高温，加之高校陆续放假， 市场进入季节性消费淡季，猪肉产品消化缓慢。 综合来看，现阶段市场出栏节奏正常，猪源仍较为充 裕，而需求侧暂无明显改善，一方面价格下行趋势下，二 育少进多出，另餐饮等终端消费难以形成支撑。操作上建 议前期多单止盈离场，等待进一步指引。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 2.供应情况分析 图 ...

基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由弱转强，铁水产量略有增加，而品 种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于季节性天气对于终端的影响较 大，各品种市场成交表现均不理想。成本端：由于铁矿石价格小 幅下跌，废钢价格稳中上涨，焦炭价格维持平稳，生产成本支撑 力度维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 钢材期货周度报告 2025年06月23日 宏观情绪回暖 淡季需求承压 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格涨跌互现，全国螺纹钢均价环比下 跌5元/吨。近期高温雨水天气影响，下游需求表现低迷，价格支 撑不足。对于下周，供需双弱格局不改，库存下降趋势放缓，价 格存在一定支撑，但市场挺价意愿不足。 本周钢材价格涨跌互现，全国螺纹钢均价环比下跌5元/吨。近期高温雨水天气影响，下游需求表现低迷，价 ...

避险情绪升温，关注震荡格局是否打破 摘 要： 随着中东局势不确定性的持续上升，全球避险情绪升温，关税 领域，部分加增关税落地，全球经济下行压力持续增加，风险资产 承压，不断升级的避险情绪是否带来国债中期震荡区间的突破，需 要持续观察。目前还未看到除了避险情绪之外的动力，需要关注国 内政策取向情况。 5 月份，5 月末，M2 同比增长 7.9%，预期 8.1%，前值 8%。M1 同比增长 2.3%，，预期 1.7%，前值 1.5%。M2 与 M1 的剪刀差为 5.6 个百分点，较上月有所收窄。中国社会融资规模增量累计为 18.63 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.83 万亿元。其中，5 月新增社融 2.29 万 亿元，上一年同期为 2.07 万亿元。规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.8%。从环比看，5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非 制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday. After consecutive contractions in supply, market sentiment has improved, but with the upcoming fourth round of coke price cut, the market remains cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5][33] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday [2][5] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the coal output was 4.0 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. China's crude steel output in May was 86.55 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; and steel output was 127.43 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase [7] - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a 10.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [8] - The state has allocated 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner [8] - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the rate unchanged since January. The dot - plot shows two expected interest rate cuts in 2025, and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027 [8] - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in Xingtai also made the same price cuts [9] 3. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia that previously halted or reduced production due to environmental protection and other reasons have not resumed production, and there are new停产 mines this week, resulting in a continued slight reduction in supply. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 85 vehicles, remaining at a low level [33] - On the demand side, coke production decreased slightly. After the previous continuous decline in coal prices, some resources became more cost - effective, leading to appropriate purchases by downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links, which alleviated the inventory pressure on upstream coal mines. This week, the iron water output was 2.4218 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase from last week [2][33] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies include mainly conducting range operations for single - side trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage, and also waiting and seeing for coking profit [3][33]

地缘主导原油短期走势 摘 要： OPEC+维持增产的立场不变,5 月 OPEC+增产未达预期。 美国钻井数经历了长期平台之后的下滑，这意味着美国原 油产量很可能难以维持。前期美伊陆续出现对炼厂为主的 能源基础设施袭击，但尚未对原油生产产生实质影响。在 军事冲突持续的背景下供应受到扰动的预期始终难以证 伪。若后期冲突缓解，地缘溢价有望回落。短期重点关注 美国空袭后伊朗回应情况及伊朗外交成果。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 原油周度跟踪报告 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油大幅上涨。SC2508 周度开 530，最高 582，最低 508，收盘 566，周度涨 45 或 8.82%。08 合约大幅上涨。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+连续三月计划增加产量 OPEC 月报：报告中显 ...

PTA：供需驱动仍弱 摘 要： PTA 方面，尽管福海创和恒力装置检修兑现，不过随 着新装置投产，且 PTA 后续装置检修计划不多，但终端订 单疲软导致下游仅能被动跟涨，需求未实质性改善，织机 印染开工下滑亦削弱补库持续性预期，7 月 PTA 供需仍弱。 成本方面，6 月尽管 PX 检修装置逐步回归，但下游 PTA 因 检修装置重启叠加新装置投产较预期提前，PX 供需预期仍 偏紧，6 月仍存去库预期，短期 PX 支撑仍偏强；原油短期 受地缘左右。PTA 观望或短线交易。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望或短线 PTA周度跟踪报告 第 1 章 行情回顾 PTA09 合约震荡偏强。09 合约周度开盘 4820，最高 5044，最低 4694，收盘 4978，周度涨 196 或 4.10%。 图表 1：PTA09 合约价格走势 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2.1 ...