Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, copper prices reached a new historical high and then declined continuously in the second half of the week. This adjustment was the result of a combination of technical factors, the macro - environment, and fundamental forces. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, caught in a "strong expectation" vs. "weak reality" game. Long - term supply concerns and demand prospects support the price floor, but short - term inventory pressure and suppressed demand exert downward pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Copper prices reached a new high last week and then fell due to technical profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, lack of short - term macro drivers, inventory accumulation, and the inhibitory effect of high prices on downstream consumption. In the future, short - term high - level volatility is expected, waiting for new macro or fundamental changes [2] Factors to Watch - The report suggests paying attention to US CPI and PPI data, as well as downstream demand changes [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week - **Price Data**: The price of electrolytic copper (≥99.95%) in Shanghai rose from 98,790 yuan/ton last week to 100,330 yuan/ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price of oxygen - free copper rods increased from 100,270 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.23%. The clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) decreased from - 44.76 dollars/dry ton to - 45 dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54% [3] - **Premium Data**: The electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai increased from - 185 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 75.68% [3] - **Inventory Data**: LME copper inventory decreased from 145,325 tons to 138,975 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37%. SHFE copper inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22% [3] Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio through relevant charts, with data sources including Boyi Master and Ganglian Data [5][6][10] Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents data on copper concentrate forward spot prices, rough copper spot processing average prices, copper concentrate port inventories, domestic electrolytic copper production, and the price trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper through relevant charts, with data sources from the Ganglian Terminal [14] Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows data on the premium of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rates, and refined copper rod trading volumes through relevant charts, with data sources including iFinD and the Ganglian Terminal [16] Inventory Situation Analysis - The report presents data on electrolytic copper bonded area inventories and the inventories of three major futures exchanges through relevant charts, with data sources from the Ganglian Terminal and iFinD [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the PTA futures market was volatile. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,128 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. Currently, the real - world fundamentals of PTA and PX are weaker than in November. The recent upward trend in PTA and PX during the off - season of the polyester industry chain is an early reaction to the expected strong supply - demand pattern of PX and PTA in the first half of next year. PX supply remains high in January, PTA supply has increased, and the destocking speed has slowed down, with expected inventory accumulation starting in late January. The terminal has entered the traditional off - season, and polyester factories are expected to reduce their load as the Spring Festival approaches [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures market was volatile this week. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,128 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. The real - world fundamentals of PTA and PX are weaker than in November, and PTA has limited self - driving force [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,108.00 | 5,110.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.04% | Daily | | PTA output | 10,000 tons | 145.25 | 143.11 | 2.14 | 1.50% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 89.25 | 86.83 | 2.42 | 2.79% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 57.89 | 59.55 | - 1.66 | - 2.79% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 339 | 363 | - 24.00 | - 6.61% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | yuan/ton | 4,958 | 4,977 | - 19.00 | - 0.38% | Daily | [4] PX Market Analysis - **PX Spot and Futures Market Review**: There are figures showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX prices in Taiwan, and related price spreads [8][12]. - **PX Supply Analysis**: Figures show PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][15][17]. PTA Market Analysis - **PTA Spot and Futures Market Review**: There is a figure showing the PTA futures closing price (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. - **PTA Supply Analysis**: Figures show PTA monthly production, operating rate, and social inventory [22][27]. - **PTA Consumption Analysis**: Figures show PTA export volume, monthly production of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chip, filament, and staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [28][30][32]. - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: There is a figure showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [39].

期货研究报告 2026年1月12日 周报 甲醇：港口库存预期下降，震荡偏强 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续走强运行为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2210-2310元/吨， 广东价格波动在2190-2280元/吨。外轮卸货速度顺畅，加之部分库区提货减弱，港口甲醇库存继续累积，但 在进口预期减量及国际形势不稳对市场情绪的提振下，周期内港口甲醇市场走强运行为主。内地甲醇价格先 涨后跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1843-1858元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2123-2140元/吨。 受港口价格上行、烯烃外采增加及下游节后补库支撑，周内多地价格走高；但随后港口烯烃装置停车、下游 原料库存高企的利空因素显现，高价货源成交乏力，市场价格随之回落。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计较稳。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升，本周预期有所下降。预计甲 醇价格近期震荡略偏强运行，05合约下方支撑2220一线。 关注因素：1.甲醇 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose, with increased low - price transactions and an improved atmosphere. New capacity has significant release pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1300 level. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market first declined and then rose. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. The downstream demand is expected to be stable to weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level [1]. 2. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new capacity release progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [2] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Week - on - Week Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (East China) | Yuan/ton | 7 | 41 | - 34 | - 82.93 | | Enterprise Inventory | 10,000 tons | 157.27 | 140.83 | 16.44 | 11.67 | | Weekly Output | 10,000 tons | 75.36 | 69.71 | 5.65 | 8.11 | | Dual - ton Profit of Dual - alkali Method | Yuan/ton | - 40 | - 35.5 | - 4.50 | - 12.68 | | Ammonia - alkali Method Profit | Yuan/ton | - 57.85 | - 95.4 | 37.55 | 39.36 | | Downstream Float Glass Start - up Rate | % | 71.96 | 73.03 | - 1.07 | - 1.47 | | Downstream Photovoltaic Glass Start - up Rate | % | 67.04 | 67.2 | - 0.16 | - 0.24 | [3] 4. Periodic and Spot Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with narrow price adjustments. The futures price fluctuated steadily, and the basis in the East China market showed a slight rebound [5]. 5. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. The theoretical profit of dual - alkali method soda ash was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36% [7]. 6. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of January 8, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,160 tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year increase of 8.64%. The capacity utilization rate was 67.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Component enterprises plan to raise prices, but actual transactions will continue to be negotiated. - **Float Glass**: As of January 8, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. The production is expected to decline slightly this week [10]. 7. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,400 tons or 11.67%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons [13]. 8. Position Analysis - As of January 9, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 773,207, an increase of 1,952. The short positions were 963,988, an increase of 22,552. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15].

期货研究报告 2026年01月12日 棕榈油期货：区间震荡，重心上移 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：（上周）棕榈油现货与期货同步小幅上涨，呈 "先抑后扬、震荡偏强"，核心 驱动为产地季节性减产预期与宏观情绪回暖，国内港口库存累积压制基差。 主产国数据：马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB：马来西亚12月棕榈油进口为33292吨，环比增长43.64%；产量为 1829761吨，环比减少5.46%；出口为1316522吨，环比增长8.52%；库存量为3050598吨，环比增长7.58%； 预测2025年马来西亚棕榈油产量将达到创纪录的2028万吨，高于2024年的1934万吨。 展望：短期受期货带动与备货需求支撑，但累库压力限制涨幅，高价成交乏力。棕榈油价格重心上移， 操作建议区间交易为主。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化；3.印尼B50生物柴油政策落地进度 等。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： | | | | 棕榈油船期报价及进口利润测算（2026.01.05） | | | | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and positive factors jointly drive up the prices of crude oil and silver; the fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in prices; the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term; the prices of rebar and glass are expected to fluctuate; the short - term supply - demand game of live pigs continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range; the prices of asphalt and synthetic rubber have short - term support; the copper market is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern; the methanol and plastic markets are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; the long - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term; the precious metals strengthen due to the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment [2][4][5][7][8][9][10][11][12] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - As of January 9, the number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 3 from the previous week and 71 from the same period last year; the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output will drop from 13.6 million barrels in 2025 to about 13.5 million barrels in 2026; the deteriorating situation in Iran and geopolitical risks drive up the oil price, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [2] Silver - Trump cancels the second - wave military strike against Venezuela, and all US ships remain in place; he also plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The superposition of risk - aversion and stimulus factors drives up the silver price, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [2] Coking Coal - The average national coke - making profit per ton is - 45 yuan/ton. The improvement of Mongolian coal imports and the upcoming Chinese New Year coal - mine holidays will relieve the supply pressure, and the demand is expected to improve, so the coking coal price has upward momentum [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills is 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption is 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,100 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Rebar - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points; the steel - mill profitability rate is 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output is 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate [5] Live Pigs - As of January 9, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.03 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 35.37%, a decrease of 0.34%. The short - term supply - demand game continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range [5] Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil spot basis is stable. The MPOB report will be released today. There is a game between the "positive policy expectations from Indonesia" and the "high inventory in Malaysia". Short - term participation is recommended [6] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean - meal spot price is stable with an upward trend. The willingness of oil mills and traders to support prices has increased, but the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing up prices is weak. The short - term 05 contract is expected to enter a shock - consolidation period, and short - term participation is recommended [6] Asphalt - In the first week of 2026, the comprehensive production - capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt manufacturers is 25.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The price has short - term support [7] Synthetic Rubber - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene - rubber output is 1.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 135,000 tons; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate as of January 8 is 79.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate of butadiene as of January 9 is 71.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%, and the butadiene port inventory is 41,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The price mainly fluctuates with the cost [8] Copper - The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 is lower than expected, and the employment market is still weak. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term [9] Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate is 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%; the methanol port inventory is 1.5372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,710 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 10 yuan/ton; the weekly output is 301,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%; the production - enterprise inventory is 144,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10][11] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,093 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 7 yuan/ton; the float - glass operating rate is 71.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the total inventory of sample float - glass enterprises is 55.551 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11] Long - term Treasury Bonds - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The inflation situation is not enough to disturb the monetary policy, and the bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [12] Gold - The Jordanian military conducts air strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, and the risk - aversion sentiment drives up the precious - metal price. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and it is advisable to take a short - term approach for oil investments. The economic resilience indicated by jobless claims data increases negative factors for silver, which may follow gold in high - level oscillations [2]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues, with futures prices oscillating in a range. For palm oil, there is a game between "Indonesian policy positive expectations" and "Malaysian high - inventory reality", and short - term participation is recommended [4]. - For soybean meal, the supply in the first quarter is generally abundant, restricting the upside space of spot prices, and short - term participation is advised. The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of stable supply and demand [5][6]. - The short - term upward trend of steel prices may be blocked. For coking coal, the risk of this round of price increase is high, and cautious operation is recommended. PTA is better to be observed in the short term [7][8]. - Natural rubber should be treated with wide - range oscillations, and short - term short positions at high levels are advisable. Aluminum prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation stage in the short term [9][10]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The tightening of the capital market due to the issuance of treasury bonds at the beginning of the year is negative for treasury bond futures [11][12]. - Gold has long - term bullish support but a high probability of a short - term peak, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Four countries (Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman) plan to cut daily production by 829,000 barrels by June 2026 to compensate for over - production from January to April last year. Geopolitical concerns in Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran led to a sharp overnight rebound in oil prices [2]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations and still at a historically low level. The market generally expects the Fed not to cut interest rates in January, increasing negative factors for silver [2]. Live Pigs - On January 8, the national average pork price was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous day. The short - term supply - demand game continues, and futures prices oscillate in a range [4]. Palm Oil - In Indonesia, the consumption of palm - based biodiesel last year was 14.2 million liters, up 7.6% year - on - year. Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax. There is a game between positive policy expectations and high - inventory reality [4]. Soybean Meal - On January 8, domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends. The supply in the first quarter is generally abundant, restricting the upside space of spot prices [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Raw material prices are rising, supply is growing steadily, and demand is mainly for rigid needs and long - term contracts [6]. Rebar - As of January 8, rebar production increased by 1.5%, factory inventory by 6.14%, social inventory by 2.66%, and apparent demand decreased by 12.71% compared to the previous week. The short - term upward trend may be blocked [7]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 5.7% month - on - month. The risk of this round of price increase is high, and the inventory pressure remains high [8]. PTA - PTA social inventory decreased, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter is increasing. It is better to observe in the short term [8]. Natural Rubber - Southeast Asian raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, domestic production areas are in the off - season, and the demand side is in a state of flexible production control. It should be treated with wide - range oscillations [9]. Aluminum - A new bauxite project in Cameroon is expected to start production in 2026. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, downstream demand is slightly decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - duty soda ash rose slightly, production increased by 8.11% week - on - week, and inventory increased by 11.67% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Money market interest rates mostly rose. The tightening of the capital market due to the issuance of treasury bonds at the beginning of the year is negative for treasury bond futures [12]. Gold - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years. It has long - term bullish support but a high probability of a short - term peak [13]. Plastic - Supply pressure has been slightly relieved, production enterprise inventory has decreased, and demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities on January 8, 2026 [2] Group 2: Commodity - Specific Key Points Steel - On January 7, domestic steel markets mostly rose, with Tangshan steel billet price up 50 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and some steel mills raising rebar prices by 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm rebar increased by 28 yuan/ton. After the fourth round of coke price cuts at the beginning of the month and high - priced iron ore, steel costs slightly decreased, and some steel mills resumed production. With the rise of coke and iron ore futures, steel prices rebounded. Due to the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season, the rebound space may be limited, and prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, while domestic rubber factories faced losses. As of January 4, 2026, Chinese natural rubber social inventory increased, with dark - colored rubber up 3% and light - colored rubber up 1.3%. Most tire companies controlled production flexibly, with finished - product inventory rising and raw - material procurement being cautious. Technically, there was insufficient follow - up capital. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with strong pressure at 16,300 yuan/ton [3] Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 561,000 tons to 1.1583 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, but with the recovery of steel mill profits and iron - water output, demand was supported, and steel mills continued to replenish inventory slightly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the market expects marginal improvement in the short term, and prices may fluctuate strongly [5] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants increased by 0.3% to 35.4%, and the daily output of clean coal increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, while the inventory decreased by 94,000 tons to 319,700 tons. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, there may be few transactions before the festival, and prices are likely to fall after the festival, so it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.2%. The pig price in the north was stronger and stable in the south, with reduced supply in some northern weight segments supporting prices. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and short - term long positions are recommended, while focusing on farmers' slaughter volume and sow culling [6] Soybean Meal - On January 7, domestic soybean meal prices rose. Oil mills and traders were bullish, and some downstream companies increased long - term contract purchases. However, with the rapid recovery of oil - mill operations, inventory may accumulate, limiting price increases. Short - term participation is recommended, and prices will face pressure if import supply increases and demand does not improve [6] Palm Oil - MPOA data showed that December Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, causing market concerns. The short - term market sentiment is bullish, and short - term long positions are recommended, while paying attention to the impact of crude oil on palm oil [7] Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily output decreased slightly. The US reached an agreement with Venezuela to import up to $2 billion of crude oil, and international oil prices continued to fall. With frequent geopolitical conflicts and oversupply, short - term trading is advisable [8] PTA - Polyester inventory is still low. PTA is expected to accumulate inventory in Q1, and some polyester factories plan to reduce production. PX supply is relatively loose, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long - term. Short - term observation is recommended [8] Copper - Workers at Mantoverde Copper Mine in Chile continued to strike, and the mine was almost completely shut down. Copper prices entered high - level consolidation after reaching new highs. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts, and the supply is worried, while high prices have suppressed consumption. Copper prices may not peak yet, but short - term volatility may increase [9] Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, production - enterprise inventory and orders increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The domestic methanol market was weak, and the port basis weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash rose, production decreased, and factory inventory decreased. The float - glass market was stable, with slightly decreased production and inventory. The domestic soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] PVC - PVC prices rose, capacity utilization increased, and social inventory increased. Supply is abundant, but demand is weak both domestically and abroad, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] Silver - US employment data was weak, increasing economic pressure and negative factors for silver. The market expects no Fed interest - rate cut in January, and silver may follow gold in high - level fluctuations [12] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank conducted a 1.1 trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation, which was an equal - amount roll - over. Market expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may be postponed. Short - term funds decreased, which is beneficial to the bond market, and the bond market's oscillation may increase [12] Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January is 92%. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term. The interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, due to high - speed consumption growth, lithium carbonate is expected to shift from an oversupply situation to a tight - balance pattern. The smooth release of supply is likely under high - profit conditions, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of consumption [4][55]. - If the consumption end exceeds expectations and the supply end encounters force majeure, the short - term supply - demand may be tight. There is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of next year. If consumption fails to meet expectations, the price may correct and return to the cost - pricing model. If consumption continues to exceed expectations and supply - side production falls short of expectations in the second half of the year, the lithium carbonate price is expected to strengthen further [4][55]. - It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will range from 80,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026. As the overall industry oversupply narrows, the price center may rise, and the overall fluctuation range remains large [4][55]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Lithium Carbonate Trends in 2025 - In 2025, lithium carbonate first declined and then rose. Before the mid - year, the price hit a low of 58,000 yuan per ton. After the mid - year, with the "anti - involution" policy and unexpected demand growth, the price accelerated upwards and reached 120,000 yuan per ton at the end of the year [7]. - From March to May, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of production at the Jiaxiaowo Mine, the decline in overseas Australian ore guide costs, and weak consumption led to inventory accumulation and bottom - building of the futures price [7]. - From May to July, under the "anti - involution" background, policies from the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology drove the futures price out of the bottom [8]. - In mid - and early August, the shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine and the mining license issues of 8 mines in Jiangxi disturbed the market, causing the futures price to soar [8]. - From late August to mid - October, inventory gradually decreased, but high inventory suppressed the price, and trading sentiment faded [8]. - From late October to the end of the year, supply disruptions and a surge in energy - storage demand led to a significant shortage in supply - demand, and the futures price exceeded 120,000 yuan per ton [9]. Chapter 2: Outlook for the Domestic Macroeconomic Situation 2.1 The Beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan: Stabilize Growth and Expand Domestic Demand - In 2026, economic growth will be emphasized more. Policy strength is expected to be between that after September 2024 and that from July 2025 to the present [15]. 2.2 Policy: Fiscal Policy as the Mainstay and Monetary Policy as a Supplement - Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive", with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of about 5.9 trillion yuan. Special bond quotas are expected to be set at 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan. Fiscal policy will shift from "scale expansion" to "efficiency improvement" [17]. - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" tone but be more cautious in operation. There will be at least one round of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in 2026, with a reserve - requirement ratio cut of 0.25 - 0.5 percentage points and an interest - rate cut of 10 - 20 BP [17]. 2.3 The Possibility of Spill - over Risks in the Real Estate Market Has Significantly Decreased - In 2025, there were no strong national real - estate policies. The change in policy statements may indicate a shift in policy priorities and a change in risk positioning for the real - estate market [21]. 2.4 The "Anti - Involution" Policy May Enter the Implementation Stage - The "anti - involution" policy may enter the implementation stage in 2026, but the public - opinion enthusiasm may decrease, and policies will have priorities [23]. Chapter 3: Sufficient Production Capacity, and the Rising Lithium Price Center Stimulates Supply Elasticity 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Production Capacity Remains Sufficient - In 2025, the overseas supply structure was significantly differentiated. Global lithium carbonate production - capacity layout is accelerating towards Western Australia, South America, and Africa. By the end of 2025, global lithium carbonate smelting capacity exceeded 2 million tons, with domestic capacity exceeding 1.5 million tons [25][26]. - In 2026, it is expected to be the last peak of this round of production - capacity expansion cycle, with new and upcoming projects having a total capacity of over 160,000 tons. Global lithium resource supply is expected to grow by about 30% [24]. 3.2 Slight Increase in Imports, with Significant Growth in Argentina This Year - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 23,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to October, the import volume was 196,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports from Argentina increased significantly [32]. 3.3 The Continuous Growth of Domestic Production Is Mainly Driven by Spodumene - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 776,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.2%. The main driving force for production growth was spodumene [35]. 3.4 The Growth Rate of Lithium Ore Imports Is Slow, while Domestic Ore Production Continues to Increase Significantly - In September 2025, China's lithium concentrate import volume was 521,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38%. From January to September, the import volume was 4.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In October, China's lithium ore production was 20,050 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.2% [37][38]. Chapter 4: Strong Consumption Expectations, Attention to Realization 4.1 Strong Domestic Consumption Demand, with a Faster Energy - Transition Pace than the Global Average - In 2025, China's total lithium carbonate consumption was about 520,000 tons LCE, accounting for 76% of global demand. The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Chengdu - Chongqing Economic Circle were the main consumption areas [41]. - In the domestic lithium carbonate consumption structure in 2025, power batteries accounted for about 74%, and energy - storage accounted for 18%, indicating a faster energy - transition pace than the global average [42]. 4.2 Power Batteries Remain Dominant, and the Proportion of Energy - Storage Continues to Increase - In 2025, in the global lithium carbonate demand structure, power batteries remained dominant, but the proportion of energy - storage and other emerging fields continued to increase. The demand for lithium carbonate from power batteries decreased from 82% in 2023 to 78% in 2025, while the energy - storage proportion increased from 11% to 15% [45]. 4.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate Has Become the Main Source of Growth in Lithium Carbonate Consumption - In 2025, lithium iron phosphate accounted for 82% of the demand in the downstream material structure of lithium carbonate, becoming the main source of growth in lithium carbonate consumption. The demand proportion of ternary materials decreased to 13%, and the combined proportion of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate was less than 5% [48]. Chapter 5: The Marginal Impact of Cost Reduction Weakens, and the Price Gradually Moves Away from the Bottom - The cost range of lithium carbonate is large. The cost of using salt - lake production is the lowest, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan per ton. The cash cost of self - owned mine enterprises is 40,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of externally purchased ore is about 60,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The cost of the recycling end is the highest, about 100,000 - 200,000 yuan per ton [50]. - In 2026, the global lithium ore market is still in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed. The industry cycle is expected to shift from oversupply to tight - balance, and the price of lithium ore is unlikely to fall to the 2025 low [50]. Chapter 6: Outlook for the Lithium Carbonate Price Trend in 2026 - In 2026, due to high - speed consumption growth, lithium carbonate is expected to shift from an oversupply pattern to a tight - balance pattern. The smooth release of supply is likely under high - profit conditions. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of consumption [4][55]. - If consumption exceeds expectations and supply encounters force majeure, short - term supply - demand may be tight. There is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. If consumption fails to meet expectations, the price may correct. If consumption continues to exceed expectations and supply - side production falls short of expectations in the second half of the year, the price is expected to strengthen [4][55]. - It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will range from 80,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026, with a rising price center and large fluctuations [4][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply - side pressure of the pig market will gradually ease as the reduction effect of the breeding sow inventory becomes apparent, and the demand side is expected to improve slightly. The pig price is predicted to show a trend of "low at the beginning and high at the end", and the annual average price will significantly increase compared to 2025 [4][5]. - The pig market will enter an upward cycle in 2026, with the inflection point likely to appear in the second and third quarters, and the market will achieve a substantial re - balance of supply and demand [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the Pig Market Trend in 2025 - The pig market in 2025 featured "high - pressure supply, oscillating price decline, deep industry losses, and accelerated capacity reduction". The price showed a three - stage trend: a mild decline from January to June, an accelerated decline from July to September, and a bottom - seeking at a low level from October to December. The annual average price dropped by 25.74% compared to 2024 [11][13]. - There was significant regional differentiation in the pig market in 2025, with the southern sales areas showing weak demand and the northern production areas being relatively resistant to price drops. The core reasons included the economic downturn in the south, increased scale of northern production areas, and sporadic epidemics [15]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Pig Supply - Demand Situation in 2025/26 Supply Side - In 2025, the pig supply remained high, with the annual output in the first three quarters reaching 530 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.85%. The inventory of breeding sows was above the reasonable level until October, when the capacity reduction accelerated. The main reasons for the high inventory of breeding sows were the high pig price in 2024, the scale - expansion inertia of leading enterprises, and the lack of motivation for small and medium - sized enterprises to reduce capacity [18][19]. - There was significant cost differentiation in the industry in 2025. Leading enterprises had a cost advantage, with some having a breeding cost as low as 11.3 yuan/kg in October, while small and medium - sized enterprises and scattered farmers faced large losses due to high costs [23]. - The industry's concentration increased in 2025, with leading enterprises expanding their output and small and medium - sized enterprises accelerating their exit. It is expected that the proportion of the top 20 enterprises' output will exceed 35% in 2026 [25][26]. Demand Side - The demand for pigs in 2025 was weak, with the traditional peak season having little effect. The main reasons were the decline in residents' consumption ability due to the economic downturn, the low price of substitutes, and the change in consumption habits. The national pork consumption was expected to decrease by 2% year - on - year [28][30]. Policy Side - In 2025, the "anti - involution" policy was implemented to guide rational production, stabilize the inventory of breeding sows at 39 million heads, and optimize the capacity structure. The policy was implemented in four stages, effectively guiding market expectations, accelerating capacity reduction, and promoting industry structure optimization [32][35]. Other Influencing Factors - In 2025, pig diseases were sporadically distributed, which had a certain impact on local supply and prices [38]. Pig Cycle Inflection Point - The pig market will enter an upward cycle in 2026, with the core logic being the gradual manifestation of supply - side contraction and the marginal improvement of demand. The inventory of breeding sows will stabilize in a reasonable range, promoting the transition from "capacity reduction" to "capacity stabilization" [41]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Pig Market in 2026 - In the first quarter of 2026, the pig price will be in a low - level oscillation. The supply pressure will still exist, but there will be seasonal demand support. It is expected that the average ex - factory price of national outer three - yuan pigs will rise to 12 - 12.5 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival and fall back to 11.5 - 12 yuan/kg after the Spring Festival [44]. - In the second and third quarters of 2026, the inflection point will appear, and the price will rise. The supply will contract, the demand will improve, and the pig price is expected to break through the cost line in the second - quarter end and reach 14 - 15 yuan/kg in the third - quarter end [46]. - In the fourth quarter of 2026, the price will rise steadily and oscillate at a high level. The supply will continue to contract, and the demand will be strong during the peak season. It is expected that the pig price will reach 15 - 16 yuan/kg, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head will reach 200 - 300 yuan [47][48].