期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 生猪期货：底部震荡，反弹有限 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周全国生猪现货价格整体呈缓慢下跌态势。11月24日生猪参考价为11.80 元 / 公斤，到28日跌至11.53元/公斤；其中外三元生猪表现尤为明显，28 日均价为11.28 元/公斤，较24日有所 下滑，且当日较前一日还下跌0.07元/公斤，环比下跌7.54%，同比跌幅更是超31%。 1.期现货市场回顾 供应端方面：部分地区有疫病，进一步增加供应量，屠宰厂收购顺畅，加之南方养殖场出栏体重普遍 偏重，猪肉供应充足。需求端方面：天气仍未降温，需求端基本无利好提振，腌腊灌肠尚未集中，对消费 难以大幅拉涨，批发市场到货量多，成交欠佳，下游贸易商利润缩水，需求端暂无支撑。 综合来看：市场供大供应格局尚未改变，缺乏持续上涨动力，预计本周生猪价格先涨后跌，整体价格 重心下移。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 频率 | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal and coke markets showed an overall pattern of weak fluctuations, with intensified gaming between supply and demand sides. Affected by the increasing bearish sentiment in the market, speculative demand significantly weakened, leading to a large accumulation of inventory in upstream mines and coal washing plants, and prices continued to bottom out. There is a strong atmosphere of expecting a price drop in coke, and steel mills may officially propose the first round of coke price cuts next week. - Currently, the spot sentiment is poor, the fundamentals have slightly deteriorated marginally, and both the spot and futures prices continue to be under pressure. However, the current valuation level of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue. There are strong expectations for mid - and downstream winter storage replenishment in the future, and there is still support at the bottom of the spot price. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The coking coal and coke markets were weak and fluctuating this week. Due to bearish sentiment, speculative demand weakened, and upstream inventory accumulated. Coke price cuts are expected next week. - Despite current pressure, low futures valuation, continued low coal mine production, and winter storage expectations suggest the market will likely oscillate. [1] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The total coking coal inventory was 2106.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.67 million tons (-0.97%). - The total coke inventory was 884.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05 million tons (0.46%). - The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons (-0.68%). - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27 yuan/ton (142.11%). [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated weakly with a pattern of falling first and then rising. Concerns about a possible peace agreement led to sudden intraday drops in oil prices in the first half of the week, while in the second half, as it became clear that the demands of Russia and Ukraine were still far from consensus, the concerns eased and oil prices rebounded from the lows [2]. - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year and remained cautious about whether to continue increasing production after April next year, indicating concerns about oversupply and strengthening the reality of an oversupplied crude oil market [3]. - Short - term negotiations between the US and Russia are crucial, especially with Putin set to meet the US Middle East envoy. Attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of November 28, the prices of SC2601, Brent, and WTI crude oil were 453.9 yuan/barrel, 62.32, and 58.48 US dollars/barrel respectively [2]. - The "peace plan" changed from 28 to 19 items. US officials said Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement with some minor details undetermined, but Russia remained calm and was not in a hurry to negotiate on key issues [2]. Fundamental Data Changes | Type | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | yuan/barrel | 453.900 | 447.40 | 6.50 | 1.45% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 64.43 | 62.96 | 1.47 | 2.33% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 62.32 | 61.89 | 0.43 | 0.69% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 58.48 | 57.98 | 0.50 | 0.86% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13834 | 28 | 0.20% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | thousand barrels | 426929 | 424155 | 2774 | 0.65% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | yuan/ton | 621 | 854 | - 233 | - 27.28% | Weekly | [5] Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with tight local supplies and a rising price center. The supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance or production reduction, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future. The price of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1215 line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market trended volatile and slightly stronger, with tight local supplies and a rising price center. Last week, the domestic soda ash output was 698,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15%. The comprehensive production capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.08%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons or 3.47%. The pending orders of soda ash were close to 11+ days, a decrease of about 1+ days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises are poor, and the domestic soda ash production start-up is expected to rise at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak, with the expected output of downstream float glass decreasing and the output of photovoltaic glass remaining stable for the time being. In the context of loose supply and demand of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the changes in soda ash production start-up. The price of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 1215 line [2]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash production start-up, progress of new capacity investment, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was dull and stable, with prices adjusting narrowly. The futures price trended volatile and stable, and the basis in the East China market showed a stable and volatile characteristic [8]. Supply Situation Analysis - As of November 27, the domestic soda ash output was 698,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22,700 tons or 3.15%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 315,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 9,600 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 383,100 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,100 tons. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the combined soda process (double tons) was -140 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 13.50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia-soda process was -38.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [9]. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of November 27, the domestic in-production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,680 tons/day, a week-on-week decrease of 0.78% and a year-on-year increase of 1.29%; the capacity utilization rate was 67.82%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54%. In December, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, with terminal construction gradually stopping and component purchases decreasing, resulting in a corresponding decrease in photovoltaic glass consumption, while the decline in the supply side is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December. - **Float Glass**: As of November 27, the average start-up rate of the float glass industry was 74.52%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 78.84%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.45 percentage points. This week, there are plans to shut down some float glass production lines, and the output may decrease [13]. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of November 27, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5874 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 57,000 tons or 3.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 740,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 16,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 846,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 40,500 tons [15]. Position Analysis - As of November 28, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 967,337, a decrease of 526, and the short positions were 1,232,557, an increase of 11,587. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [17].

期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 周报 PTA期货：供需结构阶段性仍较好 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面呈现4600-4800区间震荡偏强。上周PTA两套装置提负，整体PTA开工 率仍低，国内PTA供应持续收紧，周期内虹港250万吨PTA装置重启，中泰120万吨PTA装置提负，PTA负荷调整 至73.7%，增2.7%，而需求端变化不大，聚酯开工率维持高位，织造端订单和开机率相对回落。PTA供需维持 偏紧格局。原料端：PX供应依然偏紧走势偏强，PXN坚挺，然原油走势转弱。原油不稳定导致PTA追涨动力不 足。 2、近期PTA供应减量较预期增加，且聚酯开工在内外需支撑下降负预期延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后， PTA出口有望增加，长丝产销明显放量，库存去化至低位，另外10月底的中美谈判释放利好，降低10%芬太尼 关税，或能带动一定外需订单下单，PTA供需预期明显修复。织造端订单和开机率相对回落，但春节时间尚 早， 针织品的成品库存也不高，涤丝下游开机率回落预期或有限。整体上，PX供需偏紧叠加PTA供需结构阶 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 棕榈油期货：震荡偏强 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周棕榈油期价触底反弹。周初美国生柴政策扰动频繁，且临近移仓换月期间， 盘面波动较大。连棕屡破前低，领跌油脂板块。而且产地基本面依旧维持弱势，马来西亚棕榈油出口环比大 幅下滑，11月累库概率较大，施压近月期价，一度跌破4000令吉/吨关口。且国内棕榈油持续大量到港，棕 榈油继续累库。不过进口利润倒挂加深，暂无新增买船。另外，由于盘面跌势猛，豆棕价差进一步修复，需 求显著提振，国内现货基差快速上涨，贸易商及油厂挺价意愿强。而后MPOA及SPPOMA产量数据相继发布，增 产幅度大幅下滑，叠加近期产地进入雨季，洪涝灾害频发，市场预期正式进入减产周期，叠加欧洲议会支持 将《欧盟零毁林法案》实施推迟一年，期价大幅上涨。 短期随着01合约持仓快速减少，1-5价差倒挂或将进一步修复，短期预计棕榈油震荡偏强运行为主。操 作上建议：低位做多。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化；3.生物柴油政策等。 | | | | 棕榈 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国247家钢厂样本：炼焦煤库 存801.3增4.22，焦煤可用天数13.01天增0.04天；喷吹煤库存 428.68增1.23，喷吹可用天数12.64天增0.13天。（单位：万 吨）评：供应端，主产地部分前期停产煤矿陆续恢复生产，但 山西吕梁、临汾等地仍有新增停产矿井，国内供应依旧偏紧。 进口端，受蒙古国节日及恶劣天气影响，蒙煤通关稍减，海运 煤到港量仍持高位，持续补充国内供应。需求端，焦炭产量回 升，但中下游采购情绪较差。整体上，当前现货情绪不佳，基 本面边际小幅恶化，期现延续承压，但盘面当前估值水平过 低，且国内煤矿低产量状态将延续，后续中下游冬储补库预期 较强，现货价格底部支撑仍在，预计盘面震荡运行。 【短评-白银】美联储将在12月9-10日议息会议上下调利 率，几乎已无悬念。当前市场对25个基点降息的定价概率已达 到约85%—86%。评：市场对12月降息预期增加，提振风险偏 好。白银震荡偏多。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月01日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The European Central Bank's decision not to cut interest rates has a bearish impact on the US dollar index and is favorable for precious metals. With an increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, silver is expected to be moderately bullish in the medium term [1]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is slightly increasing, and port inventories are decreasing. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2100 level [1]. - During the negotiation of next year's long - term agreements, the supply of lithium carbonate remains high, while demand in the power and energy storage markets is strong. It is expected to see significant inventory reduction in November [3]. - After the start of the safety production assessment in November, the supply support of coking coal has weakened, but the downward trend of coking coal futures needs further observation [4]. - The production and apparent demand of rebar have declined, and inventories have continued to decrease. Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - Pig prices are mainly stable. Although some producers try to raise prices, the large supply and weak downstream demand make it difficult for prices to rise [5]. - The implementation delay of the EU Deforestation - Free Act and the approaching of the palm oil production - reduction season support palm oil prices, but due to contract roll - over, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the weak domestic aquaculture industry restricts demand growth. The 01 contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6]. - The economic data in October shows downward pressure, which is favorable for the bond market. However, due to the end - of - year period, the bond market is expected to be volatile [6]. - The potential resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut make gold bullish in the short term and may be volatile at a high level in the medium term [7]. - The decline in US drilling platforms and production, along with the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, lead to an oil price rebound. The OPEC+ meeting is expected to maintain the current production level [8]. - The low polyester inventory and the decline in PTA load make the PTA supply - demand structure relatively good in the short term [8]. - The low tire operating rate and weak terminal demand, along with the strong raw material prices and expected increase in overseas shipments, make the natural rubber market expected to be volatile [10]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with production fluctuating and downstream enterprises purchasing on demand. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. - The supply pressure of polypropylene is increasing, and the supply - demand imbalance makes its trend weak. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The European Central Bank's stance on interest rates and the increased Fed rate - cut expectation are favorable for silver, which is moderately bullish in the medium term [1]. - **Gold**: The potential resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed rate - cut expectation make gold bullish in the short term and may be volatile at a high level in the medium term [7]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, increasing downstream demand, and decreasing inventories. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: During the negotiation of long - term agreements, high supply and strong demand lead to expected inventory reduction in November [3]. - **PTA**: Low polyester inventory and reduced PTA load make the supply - demand structure relatively good in the short term [8]. - **Rubber**: Low tire operating rate, weak terminal demand, strong raw material prices, and expected increase in overseas shipments make the market expected to be volatile [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is stable, with production fluctuating and downstream enterprises purchasing on demand. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the supply - demand imbalance makes its trend weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The decline in US production and the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan lead to a price rebound. The OPEC+ meeting is expected to maintain the current production level [8]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: After the safety production assessment, supply support has weakened, but the downward trend of futures needs further observation [4]. - **Rebar**: Production and demand have declined, and inventories have decreased. Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with limited upside [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Prices are mainly stable, with producers trying to raise prices but facing difficulties due to large supply and weak demand [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The implementation delay of the EU Deforestation - Free Act and the approaching production - reduction season support prices, but due to contract roll - over, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Abundant supply and weak aquaculture demand restrict growth. The 01 contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic data in October shows downward pressure, which is favorable for the bond market. However, due to the end - of - year period, the bond market is expected to be volatile [6].

Group 1: Report Core Views - US economic slowdown pressure increases, Fed's December rate - cut expectation surges, precious metals are oscillating with an upward bias; gold is short - term oscillating with an upward bias and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - L2601 contract of plastics is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6770 line [1] - Iron ore is expected to run within an oscillating range as supply is strong and demand is stable during the macro vacuum period [3] - The downward persistence of coking coal futures is to be observed due to potential year - end production decline and the upcoming Politburo meeting [4] - Steel prices may oscillate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited by weak off - season demand [4] - LH2601 contract of live pigs still has downward pressure and will remain weak after adjustment [5] - Palm oil prices are supported by future fundamentals, but the main contract is facing roll - over, so it is recommended to wait and see [5] - The 01 contract of soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [7] - The bond market has entered an oscillating range again, and the operation difficulty has increased [7] - Silver is oscillating with an upward bias in the medium term [7] - Crude oil should be treated with an oscillating and weakening view [8] - The 01 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the lower support at the 2100 line [8] - The 01 contract of soda ash is expected to run weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1190 line [9][10] Group 2: Industry Data Plastics - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 6919 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day; LLDPE weekly output is 30.46 tons, down 1.19% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory is 16.61 tons, down 15.98% week - on - week; oil - based daily production profit is - 335 yuan/ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.2% week - on - week [1] Iron Ore - From November 17th to 23rd, the global iron ore shipping volume is 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 238.0 tons compared with the previous period; the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil is 2637.4 tons, a decrease of 271.3 tons; Australia's shipping volume is 1839.6 tons, a decrease of 210.9 tons, and the volume shipped to China is 1553.6 tons, a decrease of 319.4 tons [3] Coking Coal - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 191.3 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons compared with the previous period; the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi is 110.2 tons, a decrease of 2 tons; 11 new coal mines have stopped production, involving a production capacity of 11.35 million tons; 1 new coal mine has resumed production, involving a production capacity of 1.75 million tons [4] Steel - On November 24th, domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly; the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet resources increased by 30 to 2980 yuan/ton; 2 steel mills raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 30 yuan/ton, and 2 steel mills lowered the ex - factory price by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country is 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [4] Live Pigs - On November 26th, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 17.87 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% compared with the previous day; the price of eggs is 7.27 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the previous day [5] Palm Oil - From November 1st to 25th, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the output increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5] Soybean Meal - As of November 26th, the domestic soybean meal spot market price has increased steadily; the price in Tianjin market is 3060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong market is 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu market is 2980 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price in Guangdong market is 2970 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the national soybean meal inventory has reached 1.1515 million tons [6][7] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined; the overnight variety remained flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety increased by 2.0BP to 1.453%; the 14 - day variety decreased by 3.3BP to 1.507%; the 1 - month variety decreased by 0.1BP to 1.519% [7] Crude Oil - News shows that there are still differences among parties regarding the "peace plan" for Ukraine, and all parties need time to weigh their interests [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2088 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8%; the downstream total capacity utilization rate is 74.77%, an increase of 0.42% week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples is 1.3635 million tons, a decrease of 115,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 373,700 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons week - on - week; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 230,700 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons week - on - week [8] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1261 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently; the weekly output of soda ash is 739,200 tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% week - on - week; the operating rate of float glass is 75%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points week - on - week; the average price of national float glass is 1091 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.247 million weight cases, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous period [9]

Key Points of Investment Analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, global economy and demand are weak, and new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ease geopolitical risks, leading to a weakening trend in international oil prices [1]. - The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is favorable for risk appetite and negative for gold, but increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10]. 3. Summaries by Product Crude Oil - As of November 21, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.86 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 539,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 753,000 barrels [1]. - New peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have attracted market attention, and international oil prices are running weakly [1]. Gold - Trump's team has made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the conflict may end soon, which is negative for gold [2]. - Increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. Carbonate Lithium - The SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 92,462 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from the previous working day [4]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.19%, down 0.62 percentage points from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.58%, down 0.22 percentage points from last week [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. Ferrosilicon - The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 73,050 tons, down 10.21% or 8,310 tons from the previous period [5]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. Live Pigs - On November 25, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous day [6]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. Soybean Meal - As of November 25, the domestic soybean meal spot prices remained stable [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. Palm Oil - From November 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared with the same period last month [7]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. PTA - This week, the domestic PTA output is 141.98 million tons, down 3.09 million tons from last week and up 2.88 million tons from the same period last year [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 57 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue is not available; the price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 16,100 yuan/ton [8]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - An upcoming policy briefing may affect the bond market. The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. Silver - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10].