摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格小幅上涨，虽然需求预期落空，基 本面弱现实格局难以扭转，但宏观利好消息修复市场情绪，原料 端支撑较强，市场价格较为坚挺。展望下周，供应端压力或有部 分减少，需求仍有回暖预期，从宏观看，避险情绪有所回落，国 际关系有所缓和。截至10月24日，全国主要城市20mm三级抗震螺 纹钢均价3219元/吨，周环比涨4元/吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 及会议政策预期落地的影响，钢厂产能释放力度略强，铁水产量 继续小增，但品种产量则表现不一。需求端：由于会议预期进入 落地的过程中，市场投机需求有所放大，各品种市场成交有所上 升。成本端：由于铁矿石价格小幅上涨，废钢价格维持平稳，焦 炭价格维持平稳，生产成本支撑由弱转强。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 钢材期货周度报告 2025年10月27日 库存压力尚存 注意政策扰动 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is mainly in a volatile state, influenced by the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity factors. The operation of bond futures is more difficult. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may form a slightly bearish volatile pattern under the action of the stock - bond seesaw [2][30] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the bond market into a continuous downward trend, but on the weekly level, it is still in a high - level volatile trend. On the daily level, it is at the neckline of the long - term high - level volatility and has a demand for a volatile rebound. The combination of liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw logic increases the difficulty of bond market operation [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On October 27, the central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1 - year term, and the net MLF injection this month will reach 200 billion yuan, which is the 8th consecutive month of increased MLF renewal [13] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in economic, technological, national defense, comprehensive national strength and international influence by 2035 [15] - In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.1971 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [15][16] - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - In September, the overall economic data showed that the endogenous driving force of the economy was strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy was weakened. If counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be continuously bearish for the bond market [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In August, the narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicated that economic activities had increased. The year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing increased slightly, and the monthly new social financing mainly relied on government bond issuance [20] 3.3 Capital Aspect - After July 25, DR007 continued to decline, and the cost of funds decreased. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy depends on domestic demand. The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27 to maintain liquidity [23] 3.4 Supply - demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones this year. The issuance of special bonds and special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [25] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term volatile range and declined, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. The short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, and the long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the successful conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the A - share market broke through the volatile range and rose. The economic data in September showed that the downward pressure on the economy increased, and counter - cyclical regulation may continue to increase. The bond market operation is difficult under the combined action of the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a slightly bearish volatile pattern [30]

降息充分定价，贵金属震荡属性增加 摘 要： 中美经贸再度开启谈判议程，避险情绪略有降低，黄金在避险 情绪减弱的推动下，略有下行，目前为止震荡特征明显。目前美国 政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济的数据无法进一步获得， 但是从美联储官员的表述来看，市场基本对 10 月份继续降息已经 有所定价，后续市场更多关注的是地缘避险因素，及美国政府的内 部分歧和博弈情况。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服 务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到一定影响。美国 9 月 CPI 同 比上涨 3%，创今年 1 月以来最高，但低于市场预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 环比放缓至 0.2%，也低于市场预期。9 月服务业通胀放缓至 2021 年 11 月以来的最弱水平。数据公布后，市场已经完全消化美联储 年内剩余时间两次降息 25 个基点的预期。国家主席习近平将于 10 月 30 日至 11 月 1 日赴韩国庆州出席亚太经合组织第三十二次领导 人非正式会议并对韩国进行国事访问。就 APEC 会议期间中美元首 是否举行会晤相关问题，外交部发言人郭嘉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market is in a stage of game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand fundamental bearish factors. Short - term low - position long ideas are recommended, and the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply should be continuously monitored [2][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and strong trend. SC2512 opened at 438 for the week, reached a high of 471, a low of 431, and closed at 465, with a weekly increase of 29.9 or 6.87% [3] 3.2 Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.2.1 OPEC - OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production. In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ member countries' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply reached 108 million barrels in September, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held, and Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30. On October 5, eight voluntary production - cut OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next eight - country meeting will be held on November 2 [6] - In September, the output of above - scale industrial crude oil was 17.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, with a daily output of 592,000 tons. From January to September, the output was 162.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [6] 3.2.2 Russia - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to reach 515 - 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16 that the oil production in 2025 is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains high [7] - In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - In September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day. In September 2025, Russia's seaborne oil exports increased by 12.8% compared with August, with ESPO crude oil exports increasing by 22.6% to 146,000 tons per day, reaching the highest level since 2025. The seaborne volume of the main export variety, Urals crude oil, increased by 7.7% to 290,000 tons per day. In the four weeks ending October 19, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 29 - month high [8] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on two large Russian oil companies on October 22, and the EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas. After the US sanctions, India's Reliance Industries decided to stop buying Russian crude oil [8][9] 3.2.3 United States - As of the week ending October 17, the US daily crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a decrease of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 129,000 barrels from the same period last year. The average daily production in the four weeks ending October 17 was 13.6 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. This year, the average daily production was 13.454 million barrels, 1.9% higher than last year [10] - As of the week ending October 24, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 60 from the same period last year. The number of natural gas - drilling rigs was 121, the same as the previous week and an increase of 20 from the same period last year. The total number of oil and gas drilling platforms was 550, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 35 from the same period last year [10][12] - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the global oil inventory will increase by more than 2 million barrels per day on average. It is predicted that the low oil price at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decline in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and the inventory will be adjusted later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [12] 3.2.4 America's Production Increase - The IEA expects non - OPEC+ countries' daily crude oil production to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels in the next two years respectively, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+ will increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that the global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than the demand next year [18] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of July 2025, the OECD's commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, less than the average of the past five years by 128.5 million barrels and less than the average of 2015 - 2019 by 208.6 million barrels [19] - As of the week ending October 17, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.388 million barrels, a decrease of 142,000 barrels from the previous week. The commercial crude oil inventory was 422.824 million barrels, a decrease of 961,000 barrels from the previous week. The gasoline inventory was 216.679 million barrels, a decrease of 2.146 million barrels from the previous week [19] 3.2.6 Consumption - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year, and the global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [25] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year. However, in the remaining time of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day [25] - As of the four weeks ending October 17, the average daily total demand for refined oil in the US was 20.474 million barrels, 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The four - week average daily demand for gasoline was 8.587 million barrels, 3.6% lower than the same period last year [25] 3.2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee - The average refining profit margin of Shandong local refineries in this cycle was 154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 271 yuan/ton from the previous cycle. The average refining profit margin of major refineries was 512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous cycle [27] 3.2.8 Refinery Operating Rate - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the operating rate was 93.16% [29] - This week, the average operating load of domestic major refineries in China was 80.89%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.04%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week [29] 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The US sanctions on Russian suppliers and India's review of Russian oil purchases have led to concerns about short - term supply reduction and pushed up crude oil prices. Based on past experience, the actual impact is limited, and attention should be paid to whether Russia can restructure its trade flows. The short - term strategy is to be bullish at low positions and continue to monitor the actual impact of sanctions on Russian supply [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic coking coal prices continued to rise, with most increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The coke market was stable with a slight upward trend. Multiple mainstream coke enterprises in various regions proposed a second round of price hikes for coke last week, with increases of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. However, due to strong resistance from downstream steel mills, the implementation time may be postponed to next Monday [2][4]. - Supply disruptions persist. In Wuhai, most open - pit mines have shut down due to slope management and resource restructuring, and stricter environmental inspections have restricted coal transportation, reducing regional supply. In addition, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen have shut down due to safety reasons, resulting in a significant decline in production [2]. - On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output this week was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons compared to last week but still at a high level. On Friday, some steel mills planned to accept the second - round coke price increase, which will be implemented starting next week. There is also an expectation of further coke price increases next week, so the rigid demand for coking coal remains in the short term [2]. - Overall, supply disruptions continue, and coal prices are showing a strong performance. With limited coal production growth and persistent downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the coking coal fundamentals remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Coking coal prices in the domestic market continued to rise, with most increases in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The coke market was stable with a slight upward trend. Multiple mainstream coke enterprises in various regions proposed a second - round price increase for coke last week, with increases of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Due to strong resistance from downstream steel mills, the implementation time may be postponed to next Monday [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, aiming to achieve significant results in high - quality development, greatly improve the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, make new breakthroughs in all - around deepening of reforms, significantly enhance social civilization, continuously improve people's living standards, make new major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthen national security [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It stated that in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region, new or expanded iron and steel smelting projects outside compliant industrial parks are prohibited. In key areas, the total steel production capacity must not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas or between different key areas is prohibited. Provinces with clear steel production capacity control targets cannot accept steel production capacity transferred from other regions. The iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios in each province should be no less than 1.5:1. For compliant production capacity newly obtained through mergers and acquisitions after June 1, 2021, the replacement ratios should be no less than 1.25:1 [6]. - In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The growth rates in the first, second, and third quarters were 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [7]. - From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.9 percentage points compared to January - August. Manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first eight months. Real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, with the decline rate widening by 1.0 percentage point compared to January - August. The sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% [7]. - In September, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.58 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.3%. From January to September, the total automobile production was 24.048 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: In Shanxi, more coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to factors such as working - face relocation, safety, and maintenance. In Inner Mongolia's Wuhai area, coal production has declined due to environmental protection, further tightening the supply from production areas [30]. - Demand side: Coke production continued to decline slightly, but downstream and intermediate sectors were actively purchasing. Coal mines had good order intake, with continuous inventory reduction at upstream coal mines and a large number of pre - sale orders [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Overall, supply disruptions continue, and coal prices are strong. With limited growth in coal production and persistent downstream purchasing enthusiasm in the short term, the coking coal fundamentals remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [30]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range trading; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [2][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The US September CPI data led to market expectations of Fed rate - cuts. The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but gold buying power remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [2]. - **Rebar**: The medium - long - term over - capacity in the steel industry may be alleviated, but short - term impact is limited. Rebar demand is improving but at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels. However, the profit contraction of steel mills and the end of the peak season limit demand. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and demand from downstream and intermediate sectors is strong. The coal price is strong, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: With increased demand due to lower temperatures and reduced slaughter pressure, the pig price may strengthen after adjustment. The futures price is expected to rebound at the bottom in the short - term [7]. - **Palm Oil**: As the traditional production - reduction season approaches in November, the futures price may recover. However, due to expected ample supply, the spot price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Soybeans**: Imported soybean spot market is firm, and domestic demand is strong. Bean 2 is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong [8]. - **Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Liquidity is loose, which supports the bond market. But with the stock market breaking through the previous range, the bond market operation is more difficult. It is expected to oscillate with a slightly bearish bias in the medium - term [9]. - **Silver**: US economic data in October is positive, which is bullish for silver. With a high probability of rate - cuts in October, the downside is limited. It is long - term bullish and short - term oscillating [9]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to increase, while demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 4695 for the 01 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory is accumulating slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 2300. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market is in a game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand bearish factors. A short - term low - level bullish approach is recommended [11]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. Core CPI and service inflation slowed. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [1]. - The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but buying power remains strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1271 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.05 tons, down 3.93% week - on - week [2]. - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week. The float glass market has stable start - up, rising inventory, and average trading [2]. Rebar - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability is 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. Daily average pig - iron output is 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 14423.59 tons, up 145.32 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume is 312.65 tons, down 3.07 tons [5]. - The number of ships at ports is 107, down 17. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels, but profit contraction affects demand [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.47%, down 0.77%. Daily coke production is 64.61 tons, down 0.68 tons [6]. - Coke inventory is 58.64 tons, up 1.35 tons. Coking coal inventory is 1029.70 tons, up 32.33 tons. Supply is tightening, and demand is strong [6]. Pigs - As of October 24, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 123.21 kg, down 0.22 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate is 35.3%, down 0.34% [7]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 279.65 yuan/head, up 67.28 yuan/head. The self - breeding profit is - 149.54 yuan/head, up 53.28 yuan/head [7]. Palm Oil - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 is 1283814 tons, down 0.4%. The futures price may recover in November, but spot price is under pressure [7]. Soybeans - In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is 236.74 tons, with a start - up rate of 65.13%. The 44th - week start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. Liquidity is loose, but the bond market operation is difficult due to the stock market [9]. Silver - The US October manufacturing, service, and composite PMI are all better than expected. Economic data is positive for silver, and the downside is limited due to expected rate - cuts [9]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.57%, down 0.12% week - on - week [10]. - Social inventory is 103.52 tons, down 0.13% week - on - week. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.4%, down 2.13% [11]. - Port inventory is 151.22 tons, up 2.08 tons week - on - week. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [11]. Crude Oil - After the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Reliance Industries stops buying Russian oil. The market is in a game between short - term geopolitical and long - term supply - demand factors [11].

Group 1: Report Core Views - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term geopolitical trends support oil prices, with a short - term low - level bullish mindset for oil [1] - The risk - aversion sentiment rises again, gold rebounds slightly, and the US dollar index has increased downward pressure, which is bullish for gold. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and the tire operating rate increases, driving the market upward. A low - level bullish mindset is adopted for rubber [3] - PTA has many maintenance expectations, low polyester inventory, and poor polyester operating load. It is advisable to follow the upward trend of crude oil and take a low - level bullish operation [3] - The futures price of lithium carbonate continues the oscillating and strengthening trend. In October, although the supply increases steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will lead to a tight supply situation [4] - The demand for steel products recovers this week, the supply - demand contradiction eases, and the high cost supports steel prices. Steel prices may oscillate in the short term [5] - The supply - demand structure of coking coal is tight in the short term, and the market sentiment is positive. Coking coal prices are expected to continue to rise slightly [5] - After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the stock market may react in the short term. The bond market operation is difficult, with a medium - term slightly bearish oscillating mindset [6] - Although silver follows gold's decline, due to the almost certain interest rate cut in October, the decline of silver is limited. It is long - term bullish, short - term oscillating, and there are opportunities to go long [6] - The upward trend of national hog prices slows down. After the oscillating adjustment, there may be a bullish expectation. Hog futures prices stop falling and rebound, maintaining a bottom - oscillating and rebounding pattern [7] - The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the inventory pressure increases. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. Palm oil will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the short term [7] - The spot market of imported soybeans is strong, and domestic demand is strong. Bean No. 2 oscillates and stabilizes, and Bean No. 1 maintains a bullish pattern [8] - The domestic methanol operating rate is high, the downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] - The float glass operation is stable, the inventory rises, and the downstream demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market oscillates weakly and stably, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene eases slightly, the demand - side operating rate rises slightly, and the inventory decreases. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] Group 2: Specific Product Data and Analysis Crude Oil - On October 23, the US imposed new sanctions on Russia, and a US B - 1B bomber approached the Venezuelan coast [1] Gold - Putin said that US sanctions on Russia would not have a major impact on the Russian economy, and the US - Russia meeting was postponed [1] Rubber - In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 103.487 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. From January to September, the production increased by 1.5% year - on - year to 8.99386 billion. The tire capacity utilization rate continued to rise [3] PTA - PTA social inventory is 314.13 million tons, a decrease of 5.03 million tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.51% [3] Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,821 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 458 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 450 yuan/ton [4] Steel and Coking Coal - As of October 23, the weekly output of rebar was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 59,100 tons from last week. The factory inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, a decrease of 189,300 tons from last week [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [5] Bonds - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee announced the goal of achieving significant leaps in various strengths and reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per capita GDP by 2035 [6] Silver - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27 [6] Hog - On October 23, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6% from the previous day [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20 in Malaysia, the production of crude palm oil increased by 10.77% compared with the same period last month [7] Soybean - The IGC predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will decrease by 1 million tons year - on - year to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [8] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 87.4%, a decrease of 2.13%. The downstream total capacity utilization rate is 75.11%, a weekly decrease of 1.53% [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash nationwide is 1,271 yuan/ton. The weekly output of soda ash is 740,500 tons, a decrease of 3.93%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7021 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.09% [11] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6,597 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is 75.01%, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day [12]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间22日，美国 财政部宣布将对俄罗斯两家大型石油公司实施制裁，包括俄罗 斯石油公司和卢克石油公司；欧盟轮值主席国丹麦宣布，欧盟 各成员国已批准对俄罗斯实施第19轮制裁，制裁措施包括禁止 进口俄罗斯液化天然气等；美国总统特朗普表示，他认为与俄 罗斯总统普京会面"不合适"，所以取消了和普京在布达佩斯 的会面；美国能源信息署数据显示，截止10月17日当周，包括 战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.31388亿桶，比前一周下降 14.2万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.22824亿桶，比前一周下降 96.1万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.16679亿桶，比前一周下降 214.6万桶；截止10月17日当周，美国原油日均产量1362.9万 桶，比前周日均产量减少7000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加 12.9万桶。评：供需仍压制油价。消息面上，特普会取消，美 国加大对俄制裁推动原油大涨，此外，消息上，传递中美贸易 谈判偏乐观，也支撑短期油价。短期低位偏多思路。 【短评-螺纹钢】10月22日，国内钢材市场涨跌互现，唐山 迁安松汀普方坯出厂含税涨10报2940元/吨。2家钢厂 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand still suppress oil prices, but short - term support exists due to the possible end of the US government's "shutdown crisis". Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [1] - The risk of tariff and geopolitical disturbances weakens, so does the risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals are in a volatile correction, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Focus on the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak due to the expected decline in polyester load during the traditional off - season, and the cost - end is also under pressure. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3] - Overseas weather improvement weakens the cost support for rubber, and consumption data is poor. However, the short - term strategy is to go long at a low level. Follow - up negotiation progress should be monitored [4] - Iron ore has an expected increase in supply and weak terminal demand, with a risk of fundamental weakening. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operation is recommended [5] - For silicon iron, short - term factors support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price [6] - Steel prices may oscillate with limited up - and - down space due to the weak demand and the expected increase in production cuts [6][7] - The short - term futures price of live pigs stops falling and rebounds, maintaining a bottom - oscillating rebound pattern [7] - The fundamental guidance for palm oil is unclear, and the domestic price is under pressure. Short - term low - buying and high - selling is recommended [8] - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the substitution of soybean meal [8] - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9] - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9][10] - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10] - The short - term bond is bearish due to the slightly tightened capital. Treasury futures have more bullish factors but may still oscillate in the medium term [11] - Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the economic data disturbances after the US government's normal operation and grasp the long - buying opportunities [11] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, 2025. The four - week average export volume reached 3.82 million barrels per day, the highest since May 2023 [1] Gold - European leaders support negotiating for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which weakens the risk - aversion sentiment [1] PTA - This week's domestic PTA output was 1.3983 million tons, with a decrease compared to last week and the same period last year. The average cost, profit, and processing fee all decreased [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are under pressure, and China's rubber tire export volume increased in the first three quarters of 2025. The inventory in Qingdao Port is slightly decreasing [4] Iron Ore - From October 13 - 19, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of silicon iron decreased slightly. The cost has strong support, demand has toughness, but supply pressure is increasing [6] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained flat, while other indicators such as capacity utilization and profitability decreased slightly. Steel demand is weak, but production cuts may relieve the supply - demand contradiction [6][7] Live Pigs - On October 21, the average pork price decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. The price of live pigs has rebounded slightly recently [7] Palm Oil - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. The domestic inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals [8] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 42nd week, the inventory of imported rapeseed meal in East and South China decreased. The substitution of soybean meal suppresses the consumption of rapeseed meal [8] Methanol - The signing volume of northwest methanol producers decreased, the price in Jiangsu decreased, and the capacity utilization rate and inventory showed different trends. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is stable and weak, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate [9][10] Plastic - The price of LLDPE in North China decreased, the output decreased, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Most Shibor short - term varieties increased, indicating a slightly tightened capital, which is bearish for short - term bonds [11] Silver - Trump's planned visit to China weakens the risk - aversion sentiment. Silver follows gold's decline, but the decline is limited due to the expected October interest rate cut [11]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】国家统计局：9月份，规上工业原油产量 1777万吨，同比增长4.1%，增速比8月份加快1.7个百分点；日 均产量59.2万吨。1-9月份，规上工业原油产量16263万吨，同 比增长1.7%。欧洲理事会周一宣布，欧盟成员国能源部长当天 通过了在2028年1月1日前逐步停止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气的 提案；央视报道，当地时间10月20日，美国参议院第11次就政 府拨款法案进行投票表决，仍未获得通过，因此美国政府自10 月1日开始的"停摆"继续。评：美国政府"停摆"持续，施压 原油市场。整体上，供需和地缘均指向压制油价，后续需中美 贸易谈判进展。 【短评-焦炭】独立焦企本周吨焦平均利润-13元/吨，产能 利用率为74.24%减0.94%，焦炭日均产量65.29 万吨减0.83万 吨。评：供应端，成本不断抬升下焦化利润再次转负，抑制焦 企整体开工，此外部分企业受环保及检修等影响，开工下滑， 整体供应收紧明显。需求端，铁水产量延续小幅下滑，但仍在 240万吨以上，刚需支撑仍存。总体上，随着旺季步入尾声，焦 炭供需均有所转弱，但铁水相对坚挺，预计焦炭后市价格暂稳 运行。 投资咨询中 ...