Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The international oil price continues to decline due to concerns about increased production by OPEC and its allies, and the market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of eight major oil - producing countries on October's production policy. Short - term trading or waiting is advisable [1]. - Gold may rise due to challenges to the Fed's independence and increased concerns about US inflation and economic downturn. It may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data on Friday [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain high and volatile due to the game between weakening fundamentals and positive factors such as peak - season expectations and arbitrage funds [3]. - The domestic coking coal market is expected to adjust weakly in the short term as demand and supply factors are in a complex situation [3]. - Steel prices may have limited fluctuations in the short term, and the recovery of demand will determine the later trend [4]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly as the cost is supported by high - priced raw materials and the inventory is in the destocking cycle, although demand has not improved [5]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly as supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement [6]. - Short - term bonds are supported by sufficient liquidity but have not entered a bullish trend, and the upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - Silver is under pressure due to the weakening US employment data, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [9]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Domestic and imported soybean prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to US crop growth and international relations [11]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the data released by major producing countries [11]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. It is advisable to try short - selling near - term contracts and long - buying far - term contracts, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day in the week of August 29. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 27.84 million barrels per day, the largest increase in five months [1]. Natural Gas - No relevant content provided Metals Iron Ore - From August 25 to August 31, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [3]. Gold - The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook, which challenges the Fed's independence, increases concerns about US inflation and economic downturn, and is the driving force for gold's rise [1]. Silver - US August ADP employment increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [7]. Copper - No relevant content provided Chemicals PTA - PXCFR is currently reported at $846 per ton, PX - N is $246 per ton, and East China PTA is reported at 4,710 yuan per ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4,724 yuan per ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 16 - 26 days [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,245 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 86.63%, up 1.77%. The 1.5 million - ton/year methanol plant of Ningxia Baofeng is expected to end maintenance this week [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,306 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 276,500 tons, up 3.08% week - on - week [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,281.5 yuan per ton, showing a downward trend recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53% [10]. Agricultural Products Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in September is expected to be 6.75 million tons, compared with 5.16 million tons in the same period last year; the export volume of soybean meal is expected to be 6.37 million tons, compared with 6.56 million tons last year; the export volume of corn is expected to be 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons last year [11]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 2.07% compared with the same period last month, with a decline of 1.26% in the Malay Peninsula and an increase of 7.56% in East Malaysia [11]. Live Pig - On September 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.85 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous day [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.8 Thai baht per kilogram, and the price of cup rubber is 52.05 Thai baht per kilogram. Hainan Rubber reported that due to Typhoon "Jianyu", the company's rubber plantation had about 2,800 mu of报废 area, about 360,000 rubber and non - rubber biological assets were damaged, and the annual dry rubber production is expected to decrease by about 25,000 tons [5]. Others Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 4, the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 203.5 billion yuan [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the rubber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is in the up - volume period, but the up - volume is slower year - on - year due to rainfall. Raw material prices are relatively firm, and processing profits are neutral. Rubber inventory in China is decreasing, and light - colored rubber inventory is at a low level. On the demand side, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased year - on - year in July, factory profits declined significantly under over - capacity, and there is still pressure to digest semi - steel tire inventory. In the long - term, the big - cycle inflection point of rubber supply has arrived. The decline in the growth rate of tapping area and the aging of rubber trees restrict the growth of rubber production, and this factor will deepen year by year. Strategically, rubber can be a multi - allocation variety for the year, especially in years or periods with abnormal weather [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Impact of Tapping Area and Tree Aging on Rubber Production - As of 2024, the ANPRC tapping area was 97.43 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.02%, and the growth rate was negative for the first time. The growth rate of the tapping area in 2025 is expected to be - 0.71% (calculated based on 6 - year tapping) and - 0.76% (calculated based on 7 - year tapping), and the decline rate will expand. The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2025 - 2030 [4] - The proportion of 8 - 12 - year - old rubber trees is decreasing year by year, showing an aging trend. The proportion was 33.6% in 2022, 31.02% in 2023, 27.93% in 2024, and is expected to drop to 22% in 2025 and below 20% after 2026 [5] - Affected by the above factors, the growth rate of natural rubber production has slowed down. In July, the global natural rubber production is expected to drop 0.1% to 1.246 million tons. Thailand's rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase 1.2% to 14.89 million tons due to good weather and increased per - mu yield [5] - The actual production growth rate of traditional rubber - producing countries has declined compared with 2023. For example, Thailand's production from January to June 2025 was 1.964 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% but a 6.58% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Indonesia's production from January to June 2025 was 1.176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% and a 25% decrease compared with 2023. Vietnam's production from January to June 2025 was 352,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.12%. The production of emerging rubber - producing countries, such as Cote d'Ivoire, has shown good growth. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased 14.3% year - on - year [6] 3.2. Impact of Imports on Rubber Inventory in China - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. From January to July, the total import volume was 4.709 million tons, a 20.8% increase compared with the same period in 2024. The expected import volume in August is still high due to the approaching peak production season in Southeast Asia and the continuous impact of the zero - tariff policy [7] - The social inventory of natural rubber in China has been decreasing since April, but large imports have inhibited the de - stocking speed. As of August 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.265 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 796,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. The inventory of light - colored rubber has dropped to a low level in the past three years [8] 3.3. Rubber Consumption Situation - The output of rubber tire casings in China has declined for three consecutive months. In July 2025, the output was 94.364 million pieces, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the output increased 0.7% year - on - year to 686.115 million pieces [9] - In the tire consumption field, the supporting tire consumption is good. In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The supporting demand for tires is expected to be 79.07 million pieces for passenger cars and 16.786 million pieces for commercial vehicles from January to July 2025 [9] - The growth rate of the tire export market has slowed down. In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume was 416 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, lower than the growth rate in 2024. The reasons include pressure in the European and Asian markets. In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and China's tire re - export to the Asian market was blocked due to tariff issues [10] - The tire replacement market is under pressure. The new housing construction area has a negative growth, and the PM1 data shows that China's economic vitality needs to be improved. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires are relatively low, and there is still a need to further reduce tire inventory [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Fed's Beige Book indicates rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks and driving up gold prices. The market awaits US non - farm data, with gold likely to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - Short - term steel demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - For coking coal, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term [3]. - Silicon iron cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term [4]. - Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. - US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. - Rubber supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - Methanol domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term [8]. - PTA supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. - Short - term hog prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term, and relevant trading strategies can be considered [10]. - Domestic and imported soybeans' prices are under pressure, and the US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil, and trading should be short - selling on rallies [13]. - LLDPE prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term [14]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's Beige Book shows rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks, which is the driving force for gold's rise. The market awaits US non - farm data, and gold may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Steel**: Short - term demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term, and the 2601 contract can be traded within the 1050 - 1200 range [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term. It's advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities [4]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: Domestic new - season soybeans are expected to increase in production, and the continuous release of state - reserve old grains and weak downstream demand put pressure on prices. The US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil. The domestic import profit is in a deeper inversion. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [13]. Chemicals - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 2405. It's advisable to wait and see [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 1290. It's advisable to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. Others - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 7255. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [14]. - **Hogs**: Short - term prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It's advisable to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract or for farmers to sell - hedge according to the slaughter schedule [10].

重点品种： 【短评-原油】国家能源局局长王宏志9月1日在京会见来访 的哈萨克斯坦能源部部长叶尔兰·阿肯热诺夫，双方就油气、 可再生能源、电力等领域合作深入交换意见。据消息人士和路 透计算，哈萨克斯坦8月份原油产量环比增长2%，达到188万桶/ 日；OPEC+主要成员国料将于周日开会讨论产量政策。评：因 OPEC+增产预期，供应存在过剩预期，然原油库存未累积。近期 地缘层面中东也门胡赛、俄乌问题，宏观层面美国关税上诉等 均给市场带来复杂影响，当前驱动主线不太强。短线或观望为 佳。 【短评-甲醇】 西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 7.54万吨，环比+24.83%；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2235元/吨，上 升5元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率84.84%，上升1.07%，宁夏宝 丰150万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 72.99%，周上升0.25%；中国甲醇港口样本库存129.93万吨，周 上升22.33万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存33.34万吨，周增 加2.26万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲 醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场 持稳，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1285元/吨，近期震荡 下行；纯碱周度产量71.91万吨，环比-6.78%；纯碱厂家总库存 186.75万吨，周下降2.27%；浮法玻璃开工率75.48%，周度 +0.14%；全国浮法玻璃均价1154元/吨，环比上日+1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6256.6万重箱，环比下降1.64%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场操作气氛偏 淡，企业多数趋稳操作，浙江主流企业出厂价格走高，中下游 操作仍偏谨慎，刚需为主。国内纯碱市场走势偏弱，纯碱企业 库存高位，装置运行波动不大，个别企业负荷提升，下游需求 一般，按需为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力 1305一线，建议观望。 【短评-黄金】欧央行行长拉加德表示，2%的通胀目标已经 达成，将继续采取必要措施确保通胀得到控制，价格保持稳 定。欧元区8月制造业PMI终值从7月份的49.8升至50.7的三年多 高点，高于初值50.5，自2022年中期以来首次扩张。评：欧元 区经济强劲，对美元形成一定施压。市场担心美联储独立性受 到挑战，担心美国经济再度陷入通胀风险，黄金避险属性再度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The weekly average spot price of the domestic float glass market was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the North China market, the overall operation was mediocre, with some manufacturers slightly reducing prices or offering certain preferential policies, and the shipment situation varied. In the East China market, the spot price showed mixed trends. Some enterprises loosened prices at the beginning of the week to relieve shipment pressure, while some low - priced enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices, and the production and sales improved significantly [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of August 28, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, flat month - on - month. A float production line started production this week, and the output may increase slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 188.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.43 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 109.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.91 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 25.66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.86 yuan/ton month - on - month [12]. - **Demand - side**: As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 250340,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [14]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in the North China market was average, and the inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The overall shipment in the East China market was acceptable, and the inventory decreased month - on - month [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of August 29, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 750,795, a decrease of 33,442, and the short positions were 948,565, a decrease of 32,202. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed mixed trends, with improved trading volume and market sentiment. The market presented a situation of weak supply and demand due to environmental policies affecting downstream demand and safety inspections limiting supply. The eighth round of coke price increase was not accepted by downstream steel mills, resulting in a short - term stable market under the game between coke and steel producers [2][5]. - In the short term, the futures market has support as both supply and demand are contracting. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine supply after the parade [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market had mixed price movements this week, with better trading volume and improved market sentiment. Environmental policies led to production restriction expectations in downstream steel mills and coking plants, affecting coking coal demand. Mine safety inspections and "over - production checks" limited supply, creating a situation of weak supply and demand. The eighth round of coke price increase was rejected by steel mills, and the market remained stable in the short term [2][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, with measures to support the construction of world - class city clusters and enhance urban development [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports [7]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 3.3159 trillion yuan, including 538.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 2.7776 trillion yuan of special bonds [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [7]. - In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons (a 2.0% daily increase). Estimated national daily crude steel output was 2.68 million tons (a 0.1% increase) [8]. - As of the week ending August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.0%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to internal reasons, while most maintained normal production. The market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. Due to weakened downstream demand and slower procurement, the trading activity of coal washing plants and traders has declined [2]. - On the demand side, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce due to profit support, showing a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations." However, the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies will limit the upward space of coke prices [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines have limited production due to accidents and other factors. With continuous safety inspections before the parade and some spontaneous production stoppages, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [30]. - Demand: Coke production has slightly declined in some areas under production restrictions. Coke enterprises maintain a demand - based procurement strategy, and overall coal mine transactions are average, but most coal mines do not have obvious inventory pressure [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; and for coking profit, also wait and see [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] Core Viewpoints - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged, and if Trump's policies fail to boost the US economy effectively, the probability of the US entering stagflation will increase, which may further weaken the US's competitiveness and push up the price of US gold. Currently, US gold is around the key level of 3,500, and its further trend needs continuous observation [2] - Recent economic data shows that the US economy remains resilient. If there are significant interest rate cuts, the probability of rising inflation will increase, and the US economy and the US dollar will face the risk of further capital outflows. At that time, safe-haven assets will strengthen [3] - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Due to the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact on the Fed's independence, the US dollar index has been weakening, leading to a significant appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has not had a continuous impact on precious metals, and the short-term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate are limited [4] - The market believes that a September interest rate cut is highly likely, and in the future, the market will focus on the magnitude of the rate cut. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold, causing US gold to rise again. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may still be synchronized and need continuous observation [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Concerns about the Fed's independence have boosted the price of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may be synchronized, but the upward trend of silver is affected by the fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, sued President Trump over his attempt to fire her. The US second-quarter GDP and core PCE price index data were released, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the interview process for the Fed chair position [13][15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US economic data shows high resilience, with positive growth in GDP, retail sales, and core PCE price index, although there are some weaknesses in non-manufacturing and consumption [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US and the EU have reached a new trade agreement. The US may also increase tariffs on chips and semiconductors [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Initial jobless claims decreased, and the service industry PMI reached a new high. The price of crude oil was affected by production cuts, and the prices of domestic and foreign copper showed different trends. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September, high-risk preference assets may strengthen [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. The weakening of the US dollar has led to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but its impact on gold is limited [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes a September interest rate cut is likely, and the focus will be on the rate cut magnitude. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver need continuous observation [30]

原油震荡偏弱运行 摘 要： OPEC+成员国已原则上同意 9 月将原油日产量提高 54.8 万桶/日。OPEC 认为当前全球经济展望稳定、市场基本面 健康，并未确认本轮增产的结束，四季度仍有继续增产可 能。上周特朗普对俄罗斯进行警告，加之俄乌互相袭击行 动持续，俄乌问题仍有待观察。原油震荡偏弱对待。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 策略建议：观望 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油震荡偏弱。SC2510 周度开 494，最高 500，最低 478，收盘 485，周度跌 8.4 或 1.70%。 油价震荡偏弱。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+增产立场不变 OPEC 月报：7 月份欧佩克+整体原油产量平均为 4194 万桶/日，较 6 月份增加 33.5 万桶/日。 二手资料显示， ...

关注长端债券机会，注意把控节奏 摘 要： 我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩张，中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI 分别为 49.4%、50.3%和 50.5%，环 比升 0.1、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点。九三阅兵在即，我国国际影响力 将进一步加强，离岸人民币汇率大幅升值，国内经济景气度的不断 上升，进一步提振风险偏好。下半年规模高达 5000 亿元的新型政 策性金融工具将出，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，国家开 发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其 中。如果下半年外围政策有任何变动，国内各种政策可以马上出台， 以保证经济复苏的趋势持续进行。 最近，多家中小银行宣布下调人民币存款利率，降幅达 10 到 20 个基点。近日，江苏银行、南京银行等多家银行宣布调整 3 年期 定期存款利率。央行新增支农支小再贷款额度 1000 亿元，引导和 鼓励金融机构加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的 经营主体特别是小微企业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农 户的信贷支持力度。目前从流动性及货币政策方面，与央行发布第 二季度货币政策执行报告提出，下一阶段要落实落 ...