今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变， 在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联储 主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米 兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初步企稳迹 象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。 评：鲍威尔讲话表示，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下 一届美联储主席远离政治。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及 美联储主席更迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度创新高，注意管控风 险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-PTA】根据统计数据来看，现如今聚酯市场整体库 存集中在14-24天；具体产品方面，其中POY库存至14-23天， FDY库存至12-22天附近，而DTY库存则至13-25天左右。评：聚 酯库存不高。年底终端需求转淡，织机开工率稳步下滑，部分 聚酯企业开启检修，但PTA工厂亦坚持控产，社会库存延续去 化，PTA现货压力不大。近期成本端原油表现偏强，PTA绝对价 格仍主要跟随成本运行，关注原料市场走势。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月29日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】世界大型企业联合会发布数据显示，受地缘 政治紧张、生活成本高企以及贸易战等因素影响，美国1月消费 者信心指数环比下降9.7点，降至84.5，创2014年以来新低。 评：消费者信息指数下降，美国风暴依然持续，或影响市场的 风险偏好，利空白银。市场静待美联储议息会议公布，外盘白 银创新高并收长上影线，建议管控风险，短期不建议过分看 多。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-甲醇】西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 11.31万吨，环比增加5.04万吨；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2267元/ 吨，下降33元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.92%，环比- 1.18%；下游总产能利用率71.26%，周下降1.3%；甲醇港口样本 库存145.75万吨，周上升2.22万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库 存43.83万吨，周降1.25万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需 求下降，甲醇港口库存累库，江苏沿江主流库区提货良好。内 地甲醇市场涨跌互现，企业竞拍成交顺畅为主，港口甲醇市场 基差偏强，商谈成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位上升，现货市场 表现尚可，预计短期震荡偏强。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月28日 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美方称如果加拿大同中国达成新的贸易协 议，美国将对自加拿大进口的商品加征100%关税。外交部发言 人郭嘉昆对此表示，中加构建新型战略伙伴关系，就妥善解决 中加之间的经贸问题作出一些具体安排，不针对任何第三方。 评：关税及伊朗方面的地缘政治问题持续发酵，避险情绪对黄 金存在支撑。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及美联储主席更 迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度走高，但是短期黄金或受美联储议 息会议影响，注意管控风险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-66元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利-51元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利-8元/吨，内蒙二级 焦平均盈利-103元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利-11元/吨。评： 焦炭成本支撑坚挺，且钢厂后续复产预期仍在，冬储补库需求 仍存，焦炭基本面将保持健康，现货提涨落地后预计跟随成本 运行，盘面则跟随焦煤震荡运行。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月27日 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for the precious metals futures industry [2] Core View - The U.S. is deploying troops to Iran, imposing sanctions on entities related to Iran, and threatening to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Along with the ongoing Greenland issue, these factors increase market volatility and the bullish factors for gold. The U.S. weather conditions may dampen risk appetite, but silver follows gold's rise due to gold's increase and the U.S. GDP growth in Q3 2025. Overall, the bullish factors for precious metals increase, but risk management is needed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Market Review - The report presents figures on the internal and external prices of gold and silver futures, as well as the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai gold and silver futures, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [4][7] 2. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Figures on the U.S. dollar index, U.S. interest rates, and their relationship with the gold price are provided, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [9] 3. Macro Data - The report shows various U.S. macro - data figures, including CPI and PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, new non - farm employment, PMI, retail sales, personal disposable income, new private housing starts, and new housing sales, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [14][21][22] 4. Fund Holdings and Ratios - Figures on the total holdings of silver and gold ETFs, the holding ratios of gold and silver asset management institutions, and the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio are presented, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [25][31] Attention Factors - The report suggests paying attention to the evolution of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the change of the Fed's top management, and U.S. economic data [3]

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 国债期货：震荡偏多 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：财政部有关负责人介绍，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平， 确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。2026年将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于 "两重"建设和"两新"工作，并优化政策。央行行长潘功胜表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。从 财政部及央行相关官员表态来看，货币宽松及财政刺激依然是今年的重要政策调控手段，市场对利率下行 预期增加，债市做多氛围增加。受金融市场影响及财政发债等各方面扰动，1月份之后，资金面持续维持 较高的位置，对债市形成一定偏空影响，但是由于国际地缘扰动等因素，避险情绪有所增加，叠加国内央 行及财政逆周期调节预期，债市做多氛围增加。股债跷跷板及股债双牛逻辑是否会有所切换，需要持续关 注。 关注因素：1.股债跷跷板 2.资金面扰动 3.经济数据情况 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is running steadily with a slight decline in light soda ash prices of some enterprises and flexible market transactions. The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the pending orders of enterprises have slightly decreased. The profit of soda ash enterprises is not good. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to rise at a high level this week, and the downstream demand is expected to be relatively stable in the near future. The supply of the industry is expected to be roughly stable, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction. Under the background of loose supply and demand of soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near future, and the new production capacity will put pressure on the market. It is expected that the soda ash price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 05 contract is at the 1230 line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is running steadily, with the weekly output of 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.46%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 86.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 152.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38 tons or 3.42%. The pending orders of enterprises are slightly reduced to 12 + days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 days. The profit of soda ash enterprises is not good. The domestic soda ash start - up is expected to rise at a high level this week, and the downstream demand is expected to be relatively stable. The supply of the industry is expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate, and the upper pressure of the 05 contract is at the 1230 line [2]. Factors to Watch - Soda ash start - up changes, new production capacity launch progress, and soda ash enterprise inventory changes [3]. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The East China soda ash market was stable last week, with prices adjusted slightly. The futures price fluctuated, and the basis in the East China market first rose and then fell [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.46%. The output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - alkali method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 96.30 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week [7]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of January 22, the domestic in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 87,210 tons/day, remaining unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 7.47%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 66.31%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. Affected by the policy of canceling the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products, the overseas demand for photovoltaic components is increasing, the domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the overseas orders are expected to improve. The short - term export volume of components is expected to increase rapidly, and the component price is expected to rise. Most component enterprises plan to increase component production, with the production in January expected to increase by 4 - 5GW conservatively, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The subsequent component quotations are expected to continue to rise, but the actual transactions are expected to continue to be in a game state. - **Float Glass**: As of January 22, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points. The output this week is expected to be relatively stable compared with last week [10]. 4. Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of January 22, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 152.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons [12]. 5. Position Analysis - As of January 23, the long positions of the top 20 members in soda ash futures were 781,892, a decrease of 1,516, and the short positions were 943,479, a decrease of 582. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [14].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The 05 contract faces resistance at the 2400 level. The market is influenced by factors such as high port inventories, weak downstream demand, expected import reductions, and macro - sentiment fluctuations. Despite high domestic methanol production expectations and abundant supply, the expected decline in port arrivals in January and stable downstream demand this week contribute to the anticipated price stability [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Port Market**: Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated within a range. The price in Jiangsu was between 2180 - 2250 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was between 2180 - 2240 yuan/ton. The market was affected by high port inventories, weak downstream demand, expected import reductions, and macro - sentiment fluctuations [1]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic methanol price continued to decline. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line was between 1787 - 1835 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price was between 2115 - 2115 yuan/ton. Due to factors like the dissipation of macro - sentiment premiums, abundant domestic supply, high inventories in the middle and lower reaches, and the seasonal off - peak demand, the market continued to decline [1]. - **Outlook**: Methanol enterprises' overall profits are poor. Domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. With the implementation of seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East, port arrivals are expected to decrease in January. Downstream demand is expected to be stable this week. Given the abundant supply and high port inventories, the price is expected to fluctuate in the near term [1]. Factors to Watch - Methanol production start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2]. Weekly Fundamental Data Changes - **Price and Basis**: The basis in Jiangsu decreased from - 9 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 26 yuan/ton or - 288% [3]. - **Inventory**: The inland methanol sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.26 tons to 43.83 tons, a - 2.79% change. The port methanol inventory increased by 2.22 tons to 145.75 tons, a 1.55% change [3]. - **Production**: The weekly production decreased by 2.65 tons to 200.89 tons, a - 1.30% change [3]. - **Profit**: The profit from Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production decreased by 17.20 yuan/ton to - 268.8 yuan/ton, a - 6.84% change; the profit from North China coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 77 yuan/ton, a - 28.04% change; the profit from Southwest natural - gas - based methanol production decreased by 28 yuan/ton to - 266 yuan/ton, a - 11.76% change [3]. - **Downstream开工率**: The downstream acetic acid production start - up rate increased by 2.27 percentage points to 80.67%, a 2.90% change; the downstream olefin production start - up rate decreased by 1.78 percentage points to 85.15%, a - 2.05% change [3]. Specific Market Analysis - **Spot and Futures Markets**: The port methanol market fluctuated last week, with the Jiangsu price ranging from 2180 - 2250 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 89.92%, a 1.31% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly profit of coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia was - 268.80 yuan/ton, a - 6.84% week - on - week and - 496.01% year - on - year change; the average profit of coal - based production in Shandong was - 176.80 yuan/ton, a + 10.07% week - on - week and - 228.21% year - on - year change [8]. - **Demand**: As of January 22, 2026, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 44.38%, a 9.46 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased as some previously - overhauled plants increased their loads [10]. - **Inventory**: As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 145.75 tons, a 2.22 - ton week - on - week increase and a 52.78 - ton year - on - year increase, a 56.77% year - on - year change [12]. - **Position**: As of January 23, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market was 637,491, an increase of 3,813, and the short - position volume was 740,702, a decrease of 22,202. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the steel market adjusted in a volatile manner, presenting a pattern of weakening macro - driving forces and industrial pressure. Overseas market fluctuations led to a decline in risk appetite, pressuring black commodities. Although rebar showed a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand with a faster inventory accumulation rate, the current inventory level is at the lowest in the same lunar period in the past four years, and the overall pressure is controllable. Looking ahead, the seasonal weakening of building material demand continues. With steel mills resuming production, the rebar inventory accumulation speed is expected to accelerate, and the fundamentals will marginally weaken. Meanwhile, due to the expectations of steel mill复产 and winter - storage replenishment, the cost side still supports steel prices, and prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, the steel market was in a pattern of weakening macro - driving forces and industrial pressure. Overseas market fluctuations led to a decline in risk appetite, pressuring black commodities. Rebar had increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory accumulation rate accelerated, but the inventory pressure was controllable [2]. - In the future, building material demand will continue to weaken seasonally. With steel mills resuming production, the rebar inventory accumulation speed will accelerate, and the fundamentals will weaken marginally. The cost side still supports steel prices, and prices will fluctuate at low levels [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 228.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons or 0.04% [4]. - Rebar mill inventory was 148.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 million tons or 4.43% [4]. - Rebar social inventory was 303.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71 million tons or 2.61% [4]. - Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 76.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons or 0.14% [4]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 281.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66 million tons or - 1.63% [4]. Futures Market Review The report presented several figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (volume/position) [6][7][9]. Spot Market Review The report included figures on the spot prices of rebar in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 in Shanghai, rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [13][14]. Fundamental Data The report showed figures on 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar and hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [16][20][22][25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, copper prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors on the macro and fundamental fronts. The Greenland incident boosted market risk - aversion, and good US employment and inflation data paused the rate - cut expectations. Bond market selling pressured the US dollar, which supported copper prices. On the supply side, strikes in Chilean mines led to production halts, and smelting profits were squeezed, providing bottom - line support for copper prices. On the demand side, there was a clear divergence between "strong expectations" and "weak reality." High prices and the pre - Spring Festival off - season led to weak downstream transactions, but AI infrastructure offers potential for future copper demand. Currently, accumulated visible inventories and weak spot transactions will pressure copper prices, while the short - term resonance of the metal sector has a positive impact. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The key turning point is the marginal improvement of the "weak reality," and once long - term expectations turn into real demand, copper prices may open up new upside space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The copper market was affected by multiple factors last week. Macro factors included the Greenland incident, US economic data, and the performance of the bond market. Supply - side factors were the ongoing strikes in Chilean mines and the pressure on smelting profits. Demand - side factors showed a gap between expectations and reality. The market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation with a potential for an upward breakthrough when demand improves [2]. Key Concerns - The report suggests paying attention to the latest Sino - US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 100680 | 101770 | - 1090 | - 1.07% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 180 | - 110 | - 70 | - 63.64% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 49.8 | - 46.4 | - 3.4 | - 7.33% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 101810 | 102770 | - 960 | - 0.93% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 171700 | 143575 | 28125 | 19.59% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 225937 | 213515 | 12422 | 5.82% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | Short tons | 562605 | 542914 | 19691 | 3.63% | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures market, supply, demand, and inventory, with corresponding data charts. However, specific data and trends from these charts are not elaborated in the text [5][11][13][21].

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 生猪期货：重回底部震荡区间 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 展望：区间震荡（高概率）：节前备货进入尾声，集中出栏压力显现，期现维持窄幅波动，北强南弱 格局延续，价格弹性受限。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仔猪 | 元/头 | 343.33 | 309.05 | 34.28 | 周度 | | 周度出栏均重 | 公斤 | 123.51 | 123.05 | 0.01 | 周度 | | 外购仔猪养殖利润 | 元/头 | 37.85 | -39.11 | 76.96 | 周度 | | 自繁自养养殖利润 | 元/头 | 115.96 | 65.3 | 52.46 | 周度 | | 屠宰开工率 | % | 34.13 | 33.47 | 0.66 | 周度 | 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 ...