美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储国际金融司成立 75 周年活动上发 表讲话。在市场高度关注美联储利率政策走向之际，鲍威尔并未在 讲话中就美国经济与未来利率前景发表看法。美国零售巨头塔吉特 第一季度销售大幅下滑 2.8%至 238.5 亿美元，可比销售下降 3.8%。 对关税和经济前景担忧下，公司预计 2025 财年销售额将出现低个 位数下滑，而此前预测为增长 1%。关税政策不确定性之际，美国经 济活动放缓，通胀趋于降温。美国 4 月 PPI 环比意外下跌 0.5%，其 中服务价格下降 0.7%，创 2009 年以来最大单月跌幅。零售销售环 比仅增长 0.1%，明显低于 3 月 1.7%的强劲增幅。制造业产值环比 下降 0.4%，出现六个月来的首次下降。美国一季度 GDP 年化季环 比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回 落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。从美国经济数据来看，下行 压力增长增加，但依然保持一定的韧性。 避险情绪再起，高位震荡偏多 摘 要： 当地时间 6 月 1 日，特朗普政府的官员们暗示，特朗普不打算 延长暂停部分高额"对等关税"的 90 天期限。乌克兰 6 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward space of PTA may be limited. At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time. It is not recommended to chase long at high positions [2][7][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended to go long at low positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4706, the highest was 4830, the lowest was 4652, and the closing price was 4700, with a weekly decline of 16 or 0.17% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports PXN to be Strong - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. There is only a plan to put into operation a new 3 - million - ton capacity of Yulongdao in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. - In May, the PX operation rate in Asia and China was low. The average monthly load of domestic PX in May increased by 3.7% to 77.2%, while that of Asian PX decreased by 0.3% to 69.5%. Although the previously maintained devices gradually restarted in May, due to poor profitability, the unplanned maintenance of PX devices increased, and the maintenance plans of some downstream PTA devices were postponed. The PX supply - demand recovered better than expected, and inventory was reduced. - In June, PX device maintenance in Asia was also relatively concentrated, but with the repair of processing margins, the maintenance of some devices might be postponed. It is expected that the domestic PX supply will increase in June. Although the maintained PX devices will gradually resume operation in June, with the increase in PTA supply, the PX supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Currently, there is a seesaw effect between PX and PTA supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the PTA device maintenance plan and the implementation of PX device maintenance [3][4] 2.2 PTA Supply Pressure May Increase in Late June - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which was at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The PTA load was at a low level in May, and the maintenance volume was higher than that in April. - In June, there are expectations of device maintenance for Taihua 1, Fuhai Chuang, Jiaxing Petrochemical, Dongying William, etc. Devices such as 2% of Jiayue Energy, Fengming 3, and Yisheng Dahua are planned to restart, and there is an expectation of new device commissioning for Honggang Petrochemical. Other devices will maintain reduced loads or continue maintenance. The loss of conventional device maintenance in June is only 427,000 tons, significantly lower than the average maintenance loss of over 650,000 tons from April to May. Coupled with the commissioning of Honggang Phase III in early June, it is expected that the average monthly load of PTA in June will increase. - At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time [7] 2.3 The Sustainability of Polyester Demand Remains to be Observed - From January to April 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.41 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. - In May, the load of weaving and texturing rebounded beyond expectations. Due to the improvement of orders at the end of April, there was a phenomenon of rush - to - export. After the May Day holiday, the loads of weaving and polyester did not decline but increased. Then on May 12th, the China - US talks achieved positive progress, and both sides reduced tariffs. The orders exported to the US resumed shipment, the inventory of grey fabrics was significantly reduced, and the market sentiment improved greatly. With the rapid rebound of raw material prices, downstream enterprises also began to conduct concentrated rigid - demand and speculative raw material stocking, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. - However, since late May, due to the short - term rapid increase in the raw material end, the negative feedback of polyester production cuts has begun to appear. Large filament yarn manufacturers have started production cut plans, and the polyester load has declined from a high level. In terms of future expectations, the short - term weaving load is expected to remain stable, and there is a possibility of a decline in the load in mid - to - late June. Attention should be paid to the tariff changes under the game between the US Trade Court and Trump. For the polyester load, continue to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [8] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time [12]

【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格61.25泰铢/公斤，杯胶价 格49.5泰铢/公斤；云南胶水制全乳12700价格元/吨，制浓乳 12900价格元/吨；海南胶水制全乳价格12900元/吨，制浓乳胶 价格13900元/吨；综合来看，前4个月，越南天然橡胶、混合胶 合计出口45万吨，较去年的47.8万吨同比下降5.9%；合计出口 中国32.6万吨，较去年的32.5万吨同比微增0.3%。评：国内现 货价格持续走低，带动原料价格整体下滑，成本支撑力度明显 减弱。6月泰国开割，海外天然橡胶主要产区存加快上量预期， 消费端看，配套消费良好，出口和替换均偏弱，下游轮胎成品 库存和开工均指向弱势。震荡偏弱对待。 投资咨询中心 2025年06月03日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1406元/吨，缓慢下降 趋势；纯碱周产量68.51万吨，环比+3.21%；纯碱厂家总库存 162.43万吨，环比下降3.13%；浮法玻璃开工率76.01%，周度 +0.68%；全国浮法玻璃均价1233元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6766.2万重箱，环比下降0.16%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，下游仍维持刚需，逢 低采买为主。国内纯碱市场走势弱稳，下游企业采购谨慎，低 价按需为主。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力1200一 线 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1406元/吨，缓慢下降 趋势；纯碱开工80.71%，装置运行稳定；纯碱厂家总库存 167.68万吨，环比下降2.06%；浮法玻璃开工率75.24%，周度- 0.22%；全国浮法玻璃均价1233元/吨，环比上日-1元/吨；全国 浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6776.9万重箱，环比下降0.46%。评： 浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场企业多稳价为 主，加工厂订单未有明显改善，多维持刚需。国内纯碱市场走 势疲软，成交重心下移，企业新订单接收一般，整体需求不温 不火，按需采购为主。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行，上方压 力1220一线，建议观望。 【短评-原油】当地时间28日，欧佩克+召开了线上会议， 据彭博社最新消息，根据会后发布的声明，欧佩克+已同意将 2025年的石油产量水平作为2027年的基准。欧佩克+还将于本周 六举行另一轮谈判，届时可能决定7月是否增产；据央视新闻消 息，当地时间28日，美国总统特朗普表示，他已警告以色列暂 勿攻击伊朗，以便美国政府有更多时间推动与伊朗达成新的核 协议。特朗普说，他认为伊朗希望达成协议，这将"挽救许多 生命"， ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据新华社消息，来自伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯 社27日报道，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃日前表示，伊朗在任何 情况下都不会放弃铀浓缩权利；据以色列媒体报道，以色列总 理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统特朗普就如何应对伊朗进行了激烈的 电话交谈；今天晚间将召开欧佩克+会议。评：前期OPEC+增产 落实情况小于预期，原油短期压力不大。中期看，当前进入 OPEC+7月政策窗口期，关注政策情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】美联储威廉姆斯，4月份关税事件显示市场 功能失调，保持通胀预期稳固至关重要。美国储备水平仍然明 显充裕，当遭受巨大冲击时，能通过储备金获得缓冲是非常好 的。评：市场预期美国6月份90%以上不会降息，美国政府宣称 美欧关税谈判取得重大进展，美元指数反弹，黄金承压。黄金 中期依然高位震荡对待，关注美国关税政策及地缘情况。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月28日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F30 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-橡胶】供应方面：泰国原料胶水价格62.75泰铢/公 斤，杯胶价格52.8泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/ 吨，制浓乳胶价格14100元/吨；ANRPC最新发布的2025年4月报 告预测，4月全球天胶产量料降1.4%至76.7万吨，较上月下降 3.9%；泰国前4个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口157.3万吨，同 比增13.5%；合计出口中国100.5万吨，同比增38%。评：橡胶阶 段性原料抗跌，原因是泰国延迟开割，近期东南亚雨水较多， 也影响了开割进度，我国上周去库。预期弱，下游消费表现为 轮胎开工率虽然环比上升，个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小 幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，周内企业出货表现 未见明显好转，全、半钢胎库存延续增势。震荡偏弱思路。 【短评-白银】明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，由于 贸易政策、移民政策及财政政策等多方面的不确定性，宽松政 策暂停期可能更长，美联储需等待形势更明朗后才能做出决 策。评：美联储官员认为未来降息依然充满不确定性。美元指 数走低，利多黄金，避险情绪再度升温，基本面利空白银。白 银中期宽幅震荡思路为宜。关注白银与黄金是否走 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The tariff policies of Trump have introduced uncertainties, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which is favorable for precious metals in the short - term, while the medium - term trend requires further observation of the trade war's progress [1]. - For various commodities, their short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity utilization, and market sentiment, with most showing a tendency of short - term weakening or oscillating [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Trump's tariff threats have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and Powell's speech has added more possibilities to future monetary policies. Precious metals are bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the trade war [1]. - **Silver**: The Fed's monetary policy remains in a wait - and - see mode. With the decline of US stocks and the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish for silver. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [8]. Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda plant is operating at a high level, with stable expected operation this week and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The downstream alumina has low profits, and the replenishment demand is expected to slow down. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: The coal price is expected to be weak, and the domestic methanol operation is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with a narrow adjustment in supply and general downstream demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Metals - **Rebar**: The production of five major steel products has increased slightly, the apparent consumption has decreased, and the supply - demand pressure has increased slightly. The steel market may have weak supply and demand in the short - term, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: The coking profit is continuously recovering, and the supply is increasing. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the coke consumption remains high. The coke price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to the approaching off - season of steel demand and the expected reduction of steel mill profits [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore supply increase is not obvious, and the supply - demand is balanced. With the recent macro - level positive news, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's export tariff increase and other news have affected the market sentiment. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Soybeans**: The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain. The domestic soybean planting is nearly half - completed, and the old - bean inventory is tight. It is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1 [9]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price first fell and then rose over the weekend. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is adjusting weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tariffs, the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, and other factors have brought uncertainties to the market. The short - term pressure is not large, and the mid - term trend depends on the implementation of OPEC+ policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber raw materials are resistant to price drops in the short - term due to delayed tapping in Thailand and heavy rain in Southeast Asia. However, the overall expectation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Others - **PTA**: The restart of PX and PTA maintenance devices will lead to a slight increase in domestic supply. The polyester inventory is still high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm needs further observation. It is not recommended to chase the high price in the long - term [13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock has eased. The economic downward pressure is still large, and the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium - term [8].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱 优势通过，将交由参议院审议。该法案计划在未来十年内减税 逾4万亿美元，并削减至少1.5万亿美元支出。该法案将把美国 债务上限提高4万亿美元，低于参议院所希望的5万亿美元。 评：特朗普的减税法案，引发美债抛售，美元下跌，提振贵金 属。但是美债风波或减弱，市场关注鲍威尔的半年政策听证 会。中期或陷入高位震荡。 【短评-螺纹钢】据Mysteel，截至5月22日当周，螺纹产量 231.48万吨，较上周增加4.95万吨，增幅2.19%；厂库187.76万 吨，较上周增加2.77万吨，增幅1.5%；社库416.46万吨，较上 周减少18.42万吨，降幅4.24%；表需247.13万吨，较上周减少 13.16万吨，降幅5.06%。评：短期来看，钢市呈现弱平衡格 局，钢价或延续弱势窄幅震荡运行。北方高温南方多雨天气 下，预期钢材需求延续偏弱态势。随着钢厂盈利下滑，继续增 产意愿不强，对原燃料价格有打压意愿，近期煤焦市场表现偏 弱，但铁矿石价格表现坚挺，成本尚未坍塌。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月23日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiu ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】EIA数据：原油库存增长132.8万桶，库存增 长81.6万桶，原油产量增加0.5万桶至1339.2万桶/日。阿曼称 第五轮伊朗-美国谈判将于5月23日星期五在罗马举行。伊朗外 长再次强调了伊朗的立场非常明确，即无论是否达成协议，铀 浓缩都将继续进行。评：EIA数据显示，原油、成品油全线累 库，与凌晨API数据差异较大，偏利空的数据公布后油价继续快 速回落。整体看，短期原油压力不大，长期关注美伊、俄乌谈 判进展及OPEC+增产情况。短期短线参与。 【短评-黄金】由于投资者对大规模减税法案感到不安，美 国遭股债汇"三杀"。当日20年期美国国债拍卖结果弱于预 期，表明投资者可能对购买政府债务的需求疲软，随后收益率 走高。评：市场对美元及美债提出担忧，美元指数下跌，黄金 持续上涨。黄金短期偏多，中期或陷入高位震荡，关注即将到 期兑付的美债问题。 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 投资咨询中心 2025年05月22日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfc ...