Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term strategy of slightly bearish in a volatile market [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the US dollar exerts pressure on precious metals, and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. The market expects a low probability of a rate cut in July [2] - The US economy shows certain resilience, with rebounds in retail sales and relatively stable inflation data [3] - The relationship between the US dollar and gold is the main logical line in the near term, and attention should be paid to the possible divergence between gold and silver prices [31] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the rebound of the US dollar index, precious metals are generally weak but remain in a high - level volatile pattern. The silver follows gold passively, and gold moves in a seesaw relationship with the US dollar [11] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US has reached multiple trade agreements, including with the EU, Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and imposed various tariff rates [13][15][16] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 35.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.6% [13] - Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, including threatening to remove Fed Chairman Powell and criticizing the high cost of the Fed's office building renovation [16][17] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US retail sales in June rebounded strongly, with a 0.6% month - on - month increase, mainly driven by auto sales. The US economy shows certain resilience, but the first - quarter GDP contracted [18] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US has reached trade agreements and imposed tariffs on multiple countries, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on US products [13][16][23] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement of the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is affected by US tariff policies. The rise of the US stock market is supported by the resilience of the US economy and is beneficial to silver [24] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has an appreciation trend, but in the long run, the exchange rate cannot form a continuous trend and thus cannot have a trend - forming impact on precious metals. However, short - term large fluctuations need to be monitored [29] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July is still weak, but there is uncertainty. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of the US dollar index and the possible divergence between gold and silver prices [31]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA device maintenance plans are generally limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so TA supply tends to be loose; downstream polyester is reducing its load, but the room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and PTA supply and demand may remain near balance. - The tight spot situation of PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is fluctuating. Overall, PTA will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract fluctuated weakly. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4704, the highest was 4810, the lowest was 4672, and the closing price was 4744, with a weekly increase of 44 or 0.94% [3]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Improvement** - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a new production capacity of 3 million tons, and there is no new project commissioning expected in 2025. From January to June 2025, the domestic PX output was 18.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32%; from January to May 2025, the domestic PX imports were 3.736 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. - On the supply side, the operating rate of the Chinese PX industry decreased by 1.2% to 79.9%, which is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. This week, Tianjin Petrochemical carried out planned maintenance, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical reduced its load. The Asian PX industry's operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 72.9%, which is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. - This week, the supply - demand situation of PX has improved marginally. The tight spot situation of near - term PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][6]. - **2.2 High PTA Supply Pressure** - From January to June 2025, the domestic PTA output was 35.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.02%. - On the supply side, there was no news of device changes this week. The PTA industry's operating rate was 79.7%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The 3.2 million - ton new production device of Sanfangxiang is currently under commissioning. - In the third quarter, the overall PTA device maintenance plan is limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production. Under the expectation of downstream polyester production reduction, the PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening, and there is an overall expectation of inventory accumulation. In July, although some PTA devices are under maintenance, there is an expectation of downstream production reduction, and the PTA supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, with an overall expectation of inventory accumulation. In August, some PTA devices have maintenance plans, but there is an expectation of new PTA device commissioning. The room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and the overall PTA supply - demand is near balance [10]. - **2.3 Weakening Polyester Demand** - From January to June 2025, the domestic polyester output was 39.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 5.796 million tons (accounting for 17.9% of the polyester output in the same period), a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. - The operating rate of the downstream polyester industry increased by 0.4% to 88.7%, among which the operating rate of the filament industry increased by 0.8% to 91.3%. This week, the increase in polyester load was mainly affected by the restart of staple fiber and filament devices. - The raw material inventory days of terminal texturing and weaving factories reached a new low this year, and enterprises have started to replenish raw material inventory, which has promoted the initial inflection point of the terminal operating rate. The rigid demand replenishment of texturing and weaving factories combined with the increase in speculative inventory has jointly alleviated the filament inventory pressure. Although the cash flow has recovered, it is still at a low level, and the reduction of filament inventory pressure may delay the production reduction rhythm of the polyester link [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - PTA device maintenance plans are generally limited, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so TA supply tends to be loose; downstream polyester is reducing its load, but the room for further decline in polyester load may be limited, and PTA supply and demand may remain near balance. - The tight spot situation of PX has been alleviated. Affected by the overall correction of the commodity market and the weakening of cost - side support, the PX futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil is fluctuating. Overall, PTA will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][31] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, but the actual release of crude oil production is slow, leading to a weak and fluctuating trend in crude oil prices. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices fluctuated. The SC2509 contract opened at 517 for the week, reached a high of 520, a low of 500, and closed at 512, with a weekly decline of 2.9 or 0.56%. In the short term, it shows a fluctuating pattern [4] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In June, OPEC's total production increased by 220,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.235 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 173,000 barrels per day to 9.356 million barrels per day, and the UAE's production increased by 83,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day [6] - On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and there is still 282,000 barrels per day left to reach the 2.2 million barrels per day production recovery target [6] - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth [3][7][31] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). According to IEA data, last month, Russia's daily crude oil loading volume was stable at 4.68 million barrels, while the daily export volume of refined oil decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels [8] - In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil export volumes were at an abnormally low level, the lowest in the same period in five years. From 2024 to 2025, Russia's export volume showed a downward trend, raising questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity [8] - The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK lowered the price cap of Russian oil to $47.60 per barrel starting from September 2. As of July 6, 2025, the average daily export volume of Russian seaborne crude oil in the four - week period decreased by 3% compared with the previous four weeks, indicating a continuous weakness in Russian crude oil exports [8] 2.3 United States: Stable Production - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the U.S. crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active rigs in the U.S. was 415, a decrease of 7 compared with the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 168, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week [9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted that the U.S. crude oil production will decrease to about 13.37 million barrels per day next year, down from about 13.42 million barrels per day this year [9] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - IEA's June monthly report: It is expected that global production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. The global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The supply growth forecast of non - OPEC+ countries in 2025 was lowered from 1.5 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and it is expected that the supply growth of non - OPEC+ countries will reach 920,000 barrels per day by 2026 [16] - IEA's July monthly report: This year's global oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day compared with the previous forecast, reaching 2.1 million barrels per day [16] - OPEC stated that in 2025, the supply of countries outside OPEC+ will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory: Decrease - According to OPEC's monthly report, preliminary data showed that as of April 2025, the commercial inventory of OECD's crude oil and liquids was 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared with the same period last year [17] - As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory was 821 million barrels, a decrease of 3.369 million barrels (- 0.41%) compared with the previous week; the strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels (- 0.05%) compared with the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 419 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels (- 0.75%) compared with the previous week; the crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 21.863 million barrels, an increase of 455,000 barrels (+2.13%) compared with the previous week [17] 2.6 Consumption: Weak - OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, maintaining the expected growth of 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025. The IEA report showed that the recent oil demand has slowed down significantly, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 704,000 barrels per day, and the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 was lowered to 722,000 barrels per day [21] - As of June 27, the U.S. refined oil processing fee was $346 per ton, while the processing fee of Asian refineries was low at $170 per ton. In the week of July 24, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 313.57 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.79% [22] - In April, the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the operating rate of European refineries was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10%. As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the crude oil processing volume of U.S. refineries was 16.936 million barrels per day, an increase of 87,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of U.S. refineries was 95.50%, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous week. As of July 24, 2025, the operating rate of major refineries in China was 81.21%, the same as the previous week. As of July 23, 2025, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 50.04%, an increase of 0.88% compared with the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Next weekend, OPEC+减产 countries will decide on the crude oil quota for September. It is likely that they will complete the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase plan of 300,000 barrels per day in September. The actual incremental production in April, May, and June was lower than the plan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent actual production growth. If the production returns to the full - quota level, there will still be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, the actual release of crude oil production is slow, and the crude oil price shows a weak and fluctuating trend. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3][31]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, palm oil is expected to move in a volatile manner. The poor export situation of Malaysian palm oil in July and the relatively loose domestic supply due to active recent - month ship purchases, along with the continued dominant position of rigid - demand procurement in the demand side, may cause the basis price to continue to decline under pressure [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Palm Oil Price and Market Review - The report presents a chart of the average palm oil price trend (yuan/ton) [4]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows a chart of China's palm oil import data [7]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report includes a chart of the statistics of palm oil's transaction average price and volume (tons, yuan/ton) [8]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report provides a chart of palm oil's import cost and profit (yuan/ton) [10]. 5. Market Outlook - Malaysian palm oil's export volume from July 1 - 25 decreased significantly month - on - month, suppressing palm oil futures prices. Domestic palm oil supply is relatively loose in the short term due to active recent - month ship purchases. After a brief recovery, the import profit has deepened the inversion, and domestic ship purchases are progressing steadily. The demand side is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the basis price may continue to decline under pressure [2][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. The increases in East and Northeast China were relatively large, reaching over 180 - 200 yuan/ton, while the increases in South, Southwest, Northwest, and Central China ranged from 90 - 170 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, aiming to improve the standards for identifying low-price dumping and unfair price behaviors. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-ins. From January to June, 16,500 urban old community renovation projects started nationwide, and the plan for 2025 is to start 25,000 projects. From July 22nd to 27th, there were multiple price increases for coke in markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan [5][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 114,700 tons, higher than last week's 93,700 tons. The rise in futures rebar drove an improvement in terminal sentiment, with significantly better market trading performance and obvious increases in trading prices [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections. Investment strategies include mainly adopting range operations for single positions, mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach for inter - period arbitrage, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and steel profits, and adopting a wide - straddle consolidation strategy for options [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. [2][4][35] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets operated strongly this week. Affected by the pull - up of market sentiment and coal mine over - production inspections, coke enterprises successively raised prices twice this week, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and the third price increase was implemented on Friday, with the intention to continue raising prices next week. [4] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden from July 27th to 30th to hold economic and trade talks with the US. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (for Comment)", aiming to improve the standards for identifying low - price dumping and regulate market price order. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of promoting large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - ins. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential communities across the country started renovation, and 6 regions had a start - up rate of over 80%. The national plan for 2025 is to start renovating 25,000 old urban residential communities. - There were multiple price adjustment announcements for coke in different markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan this week. [6][7] 3. Fundamental Analysis - The online transactions continued to rise, and the offline transactions were in short supply. Traders were actively purchasing, and the market was still in an upward trend. Due to the large increase in coal prices, coking was in the red, and some coke enterprises with low inventories limited production. The downstream terminal demand was good, steel mill overhauls and production cuts were not obvious, and steel mill profits were good, with a high acceptance of raw material price increases in the short term. [2] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures. The coking coal trading volume during the night session increased rapidly, and after a brief rise at the opening, it fell sharply, along with a slump in related industrial product futures. This slump cooled the over - heated market, and market participants will gradually return to rationality. Further price increases require the introduction of more - than - expected macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the progress of China - US trade negotiations. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profits, also mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks and trading suggestions for multiple commodities and financial products, including methanol, gold, steel, coal, etc., based on their current market data and supply - demand situations [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Methanol - Market data: Jiangsu Taicang methanol market price is 2488 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; port inventory is 72.58 tons, down 6.44 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, down 1.25 tons weekly; order to be delivered is 24.48 tons, up 0.17 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 83.98%, up 1.56% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 73.12%, down 0.49% weekly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic methanol production expected to rise, downstream demand stable. Port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 2460. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. Gold - Market news: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment and $150 billion of US energy products [2]. - Outlook: US - EU tariff negotiations may be smooth, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum, which is positive for gold. Gold is still bearish in a range but may rebound in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar's movement [2]. Rebar - Market data: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate is 83.46%, unchanged from last week; capacity utilization is 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; profitability is 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points; daily pig iron output is 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Low inventory and strong raw materials provide support. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the prices of furnace materials [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: For 247 steel mills, daily coke output is 47.16 tons, up 0.07 tons; capacity utilization is 86.97%, up 0.13%; coke inventory is 639.98 tons, up 0.99 tons; coking coal inventory is 799.51 tons, up 8.41 tons; injection coal inventory is 419.44 tons, up 2.99 tons [5]. - Outlook: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures, causing a sharp drop in the market. Market participants will return to rationality. Further price increases require unexpected macro - policies. Suggestion is to participate in short - term range trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market data: Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory is 8885.22 tons, up 63.06 tons; daily consumption is 301.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.51 days, up 0.22 days [6]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, demand is slightly declining, and port inventory may decrease slightly. The upward momentum of ore prices is weakening, and the risk of correction is increasing. Wide - range fluctuations continue [6]. Soda Ash - Market data: National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; weekly output is 72.38 tons, down 1.28%; total inventory is 186.46 tons, down 2.15%; float glass operation rate is 75.68%, unchanged; average price is 1219 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; inventory is 6189.6 million weight boxes, down 4.69% [6]. - Outlook: Float glass operation is stable, inventory is decreasing, and prices are rising. The domestic soda ash market is strengthening in a range. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 1455. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of July 25, the number of US active drilling rigs is 415, the lowest since September 2021, down 7 from the previous week and 67 from the same period last year [7]. - Outlook: OPEC+ will decide on September's crude oil quota next weekend. There is a high probability of completing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is fully realized, there will be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, and crude oil prices are expected to be weak in a range. Suggestion is to wait and see [7]. Bottle Chips - Market data: Weekly production is 32.23 tons, down 0.28 tons; price in the East China market is 5991 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; industry profit is - 225.39 yuan/ton, down 16.95%; downstream soft - drink industry operation rate is expected to be stable at 85 - 95%, and oil refinery operation rate may rise slightly to 67% [8]. - Outlook: Supply is decreasing, providing some support, but downstream stocking willingness is low. Crude oil is fluctuating. A range - trading approach is suggested for bottle chips [8]. Plastic - Market data: North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7358 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; weekly production is 26.96 tons, down 2.98%; enterprise inventory is 17.26 tons, down 4.22%; daily production profit from oil - based is - 425 yuan/ton; average operation rate of downstream products is down 0.1%, with the agricultural film operation rate up 0.2% and PE packaging film operation rate down 0.5% [8]. - Outlook: LLDPE supply may increase, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is supported by costs. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 7410. Suggestion is to wait and see [8]. Rubber - Market data: Thai raw rubber prices are 55.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 50 Thai baht/kg for cup lump. As of July 24, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises is 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; for full - steel tire enterprises, it is 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous week and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Outlook: Global rubber production areas have normal weather. Rubber inventory in China is slightly decreasing. The domestic tire industry is recovering, but finished - product inventory is high, and consumer demand has limited impact on prices. A range - trading approach is suggested, and attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict [9]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of July 25, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.67 kg, up 0.18 kg; weekly slaughter operation rate is 26.77%, up 0.17%; profit from purchasing piglets is - 117.52 yuan/head, down 45.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 72.1 yuan/head, down 42.76 yuan/head; piglet price is 444.76 yuan/head, unchanged from last week [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are stable and slightly rising. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is increasing, but the high - temperature off - season continues, and there is no strong upward momentum in the short - term. There are strong policy expectations. Suggestion is to short at appropriate times. Farmers can sell hedging according to their slaughter plans [10]. Palm Oil - Market data: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are 1,029,585 tons, down 104,645 tons or 9.23% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri, exports are 896,484 tons, down 160,982 tons or 15.22% [11]. - Outlook: The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy lacks a solid foundation, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are decreasing. The domestic market shows a deeper inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and terminal demand is weak. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a high - level range in the short - term [11]. Soybean Meal - Market data: In the 30th week (July 19 - 25), oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2389 million tons, and the operation rate is 62.94%, 380 tons higher than expected [12]. - Outlook: The news of the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce pig production and promote soybean meal substitutes put pressure on the market. Unpriced contracts at the end of the month provide some support, but high inventory continues to suppress spot prices. The M09 contract is expected to be weak in a range in the short - term [12]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market data: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. New - energy industries represented by equipment manufacturing had rapid profit growth [12]. - Outlook: The economy still has resilience. Before the July Politburo meeting, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Station indicates an increase in fiscal support in the second half of the year. Policy factors are negative for the bond market. The bond market's main logic is unclear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the July Politburo meeting [12]. Silver - Market data: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4% [13]. - Outlook: This week will enter the expected market for the July Fed meeting, and market expectations are still low. Non - farm payroll data will provide further guidance. Silver is expected to be slightly bearish in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the synchronization of gold and silver prices and the impact of gold on silver [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for coking coal is optimistic due to accumulating positive factors, but there is a risk of a post - sentiment - release correction [2]. - Crude oil is expected to trade in a narrow range with OPEC+ maintaining its production increase stance, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [2]. - Iron ore is likely to have a short - term oscillating trend as supply pressure eases and the supply - demand relationship improves marginally [4]. - The upward momentum of rebar prices may slow down and enter an adjustment phase due to market risks and weakening demand [4]. - Hog prices are expected to be weak and volatile, with a suggestion to short at an appropriate time for traders and sell - hedge for farmers [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with futures prices more likely to rise [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade policies and other factors [6]. - Short - term treasury bonds are negatively affected by rising capital costs and the overall economic situation, with the stock - bond seesaw effect being the main logic [7]. - Gold may enter a slightly bearish oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the dollar - gold seesaw effect [7]. - Silver is likely to be slightly bullish before the end - of - July interest - rate decision, and the synchronization of gold and silver trends should be monitored [8]. - PTA is expected to have weak supply - demand prospects, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [8]. - Natural rubber may be affected by the Thailand - Cambodia conflict, and cautious short - term long positions can be considered [9]. - Polypropylene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term long positions [10][11]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or take short - term short positions [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - On July 24, coke enterprises in multiple regions proposed a third - round price increase, and some downstream steel mills have accepted it. The mainstream steel mills will conduct tenders on the 25th, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton effective from July 25 at 0:00 [2]. Crude Oil - The expected August export volume of CPC Blend crude oil from the Black Sea is 1.66 million barrels per day, about 6.5 million tons per month, similar to the July plan. Kazakhstan does not consider withdrawing from the OPEC+ agreement [2]. Iron Ore - From July 14 - 20, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a decrease of 3.714 million tons compared to the previous week. Steel mills'复产 has accelerated due to profit incentives, and overseas shipments have decreased this week [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending July 24, rebar production was 2.1196 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons (1.39%) from the previous week. Factory inventory decreased by 74,300 tons (4.29%), social inventory increased by 28,100 tons (0.76%), and apparent demand increased by 104,100 tons (5.05%) [4]. Hog - On July 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.69, down 0.05 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.62 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects the 2025 crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons, both slightly higher than last year [5]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the week ending July 20, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 151.12% to 202,400 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to July 20, 2025, exports were 9.437 million tons, a 40.93% increase year - on - year [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties all increased. The overnight rate rose 26.8 BP to 1.635%, the 7 - day rate rose 8.2 BP to 1.545%, the 14 - day rate rose 8.8 BP to 1.615%, and the 1 - month rate rose 0.7 BP to 1.536% [7]. Gold - EU member states voted to impose counter - tariff measures on US products worth 93 billion euros. If the EU - US trade negotiation fails by August 7, these measures will take effect automatically [7]. Silver - On July 24, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, escalating the pressure on Fed Chairman Powell. The possibility of a July interest rate cut remains uncertain [8]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at $841/ton, PX - N at $272/ton. The price of PTA in East China is 4,818 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is 4,680 yuan/ton. PTA social inventory is 3.6223 million tons, up 13,600 tons from the previous period [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, and cup lump is 50 Thai baht/kg. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first half of the year were 2.257 million tons, a 13.2% increase year - on - year [9]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 7,130 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 77.33%, an increase of 0.75% from the previous day [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,468 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. China's methanol port sample inventory decreased by 64,400 tons to 725,800 tons this week [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. Weekly production was 723,800 tons, a 1.28% decrease. Factory inventory decreased by 2.15% [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The market is influenced by policy expectations, with the black - chain having a good atmosphere but facing high - valuation callback risks. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and many are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: The current market is policy - expected dominated. The black - chain has a good atmosphere, but high - valuation risks exist. Attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol开工 is expected to rise at a high level, downstream demand is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 2510. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [3]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production - increasing stance, and actual production release is slow. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chemical Products - **PTA**: PTA device maintenance is average, with new production expectations. Downstream polyester factories are likely to cut production in July, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices may rise, and power costs are hard to reduce. However, port inventories are rising, and ore prices lack support. The supply - demand relationship may become looser. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The national pig price is weak in the short term due to increased supply and weak demand. There is a short - term bullish expectation from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. It is recommended to wait and see and short at appropriate times [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesian fundamentals are positive, and Malaysian production increased in the first 20 days of July. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are firm due to weather, and inventory has slightly decreased. Tire开工 has rebounded, but there is still pressure on the price. It may correct in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or short [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". There is an inventory - accumulation expectation with a large amount of soybeans arriving. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see [9]. Metals - **Silver**: The struggle between the Fed and the White House over interest - rate cuts continues. Before the end - of - July interest - rate meeting, silver is mainly bullish and may fluctuate at a high level [13]. - **Gold**: US tariff negotiations increase global economic pressure. The dollar's downward momentum weakens, and gold may enter a slightly bearish oscillation trend [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda - ash market is stable and slightly bullish. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 1350. It is recommended to wait and see or short [15]. Construction Materials - **Rebar**: Steel prices are driven up by cost increases but face a callback risk in the second half of the week due to weak demand in the high - temperature off - season [10]. Bonds - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: Before the July Politburo meeting, policies are expected to increase fiscal support, which is bearish for bonds. The main logic of the bond market is unclear, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted [11]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: Market expectations of a short - term interest - rate decline are positive for short - term bonds. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw, and the overall fundamentals are bearish [11]. Plastics - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply has pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The L 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a pressure level at 7400. It is recommended to wait and see [13].