Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply - demand, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2]. - The current background of crude oil is supply surplus despite frequent geopolitical conflicts, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. - Due to increased supply and reduced demand in the steel market, and unstable cost support, but boosted by macro sentiment, steel prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Silicon iron is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to the double - weak supply and demand in the off - season [5]. - The overall supply of live pigs is loose, and short - term long positions are recommended while paying attention to the slaughter volume and sows culling [6]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is supported by cost and will fluctuate strongly, but may be pressured later [6]. - For palm oil, short - term long positions are recommended as the short - term market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil on oils [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern in the short term, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term after long positions take profits [8]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to go long at low prices in the short term [9]. - Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term [10]. - Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment was 3213.7 million tons, a decrease of 463.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2742.7 million tons, a decrease of 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 million tons, an increase of 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 million tons, an increase of 155.0 million tons [2]. Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. The sanctions on Venezuela have affected its oil production and shipping [3]. Steel - On January 6, 2026, the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly. The price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan was stable at 2930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Silicon Iron - The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 18481.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27%. The weekly output was 98900 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand - to - supply ratio rose to 18.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [5]. Live Pigs - On January 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 17.99 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from the previous day. The national pig price was stronger in the north and weaker in the south [6]. Soybean Meal - On January 6, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot prices generally increased, with prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04%, and the output decreased by 34.48% [7]. Copper - The second - phase project of Mirador Copper Mine is expected to be postponed. Copper prices were driven up by geopolitical turmoil and mine - end disturbances, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. PTA - The PTA load reached 72.5% (- 0.7%). The 1 - quarter inventory accumulation expectation of PTA is enhanced, and the self - driving force is limited [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex was 55 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber was 51.5 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 94200 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74% [10]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6253 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day. The capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1232 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 697100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products, analyzing their supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market sentiment to predict price trends. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals Iron Ore - Port inventory reached 15970.89 tons, up 112.23 tons week - on - week; daily port discharge was 325.21 tons, up 10.15 tons; number of ships in port was 105, up 2. Supply is high, but demand is supported by increased iron - water production and small - scale restocking by steel mills. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. Silver - The US ISM manufacturing index dropped to 47.9 in December 2025. With increased economic downward pressure and low probability of a Fed rate cut in January, there are more negative factors. It rebounded due to gold's safe - haven effect, but the upside is limited [2]. Manganese Silicon - Weekly demand for five major steel grades was 115055 tons, up 2.13% week - on - week. Supply was 193725 tons, up 0.6% week - on - week. The demand - supply ratio was 59.39%, up 0.89%. The cost has slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is expected to fluctuate around the cost [4]. Rebar - As of December 31, weekly production was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons; factory inventory was 139.37 tons, down 0.69 tons; social inventory was 282.66 tons, down 11.53 tons; apparent demand was 200.44 tons, down 2.24 tons. The steel market is in a weak balance, and prices may adjust slightly [5]. Aluminum - Gree Electric has no "aluminum - for - copper" plan for now. Aluminum prices are supported by supply constraints and long - term "aluminum - for - copper" expectations. It is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating pattern in the short term [11]. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in February and March 2026. Some Venezuelan oil tankers left port. With geopolitical factors, oil prices rebounded from the low level. Short - term long - position trading is recommended [6]. PX - Domestic PX load was 88.2% (+0.1%), and Asian load was 79.5% (+0.6%). Supply is more abundant than expected. It is recommended to realize profits from long positions [7]. Agricultural Products Natural Rubber - Overseas production is in full swing, while domestic production has basically stopped. Downstream restocking is cautious, and inventory in Qingdao has increased. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [8]. Palm Oil - Indian palm oil imports in December decreased 20% month - on - month to 50.7 tons. The supply - demand imbalance exerts pressure on prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Soybean Meal - In the first week of 2026, soybean inventory was 710.25 tons, up 8.53% week - on - week and 19.48% year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 117.02 tons, up 0.22% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year. The price of the main contract M05 is under pressure and is expected to trade between 2730 - 2790 yuan/ton [10]. Live Pigs - On January 5, the average wholesale price of pork increased 1.1% from the previous day. The price is divided between the north and the south, and overall supply is abundant. It is expected to enter an adjustment phase [8]. Financial Products Long - term Treasury Bonds - The crackdown on financial fraud in the capital market may affect the stock market. With the end of cross - year liquidity disturbances, the bond market is expected to be more volatile [12]. Gold - The Venezuela situation may ease, and the impact of geopolitics on precious metals is limited. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [12]. Chemicals Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. Domestic capacity utilization was 90.23%, down 0.74% week - on - week. Port inventory increased. It is expected to be strong in the short term [13]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Production decreased 2.08% week - on - week, and inventory decreased 2.1%. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Capacity utilization was 78.63%, up 1.4%. Social inventory increased 1.45%. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [15].

期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 周报 钢材：基本面矛盾有限，关注冬储 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周市场震荡运行,在宏观消息炒作下，价格低位稍显改善，但实际需求差，成 交情况表现一般。目前钢厂减产加之库存压力不大，推涨意愿强烈，短期供需基本面矛盾不大，但受制于信 心不足，价格上行承压。 展望：近期螺纹钢基本面延续去库，基本面矛盾并不突出。但随着淡季逐步深入，需求预期仍显承压， 基本面亮点有限。同时政策端仍有扰动，冬储补库预期尚未兑现。预计盘面价格低位震荡运行。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 227.43 | 226.58 | 0.85 | 0.38% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 139.37 | 140.06 | -0.69 | -0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly. The fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, with a cumulative decline of 200 - 220 yuan/ton in four rounds. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Affected by heavy pollution weather, some coking enterprises further limited production, and coal - coke prices were still in a weak bottom - seeking stage. As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity will gradually increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Market situation: The domestic coking coal and coke markets continued to operate weakly this week. The fourth - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was implemented, and the cumulative decline in four rounds was 200 - 220 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was average, and downstream procurement was cautious with a weak outlook. Some coking enterprises further limited production due to heavy pollution weather, and coal - coke prices were in a weak bottom - seeking stage [2]. - Outlook: As the year - end approaches, winter storage intensity will increase. After January, the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports will improve, and the overall supply pressure will be relieved. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory was 2156.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.13 million tons (0.47%); the total coke inventory was 915.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04 million tons (0.33%) [4]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 227.43 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons (0.38%) [4]. - **Profit**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton (- 22.22%) [4]. Market Data Charts - The report includes multiple charts, such as the 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke main contracts, the average price summary of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian coking coal, the summary price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, the first - grade arrival price of Hebei Iron and Steel's metallurgical coke, the basis of coking coal and coke, the daily output of clean coal from mines and coal washing plants, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily output of coke from steel mills and independent coking enterprises, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills [6][8][11][14][17][19][23][25][27]. All data sources are from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [7].

期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 周报 原油期货：供应充足、地缘持续发酵 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：一方面，当地时间1月3日，美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击， 抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人，并带离委内瑞拉，目前委内瑞拉原油产量在100万桶/日附近，仅为全球原 油产量的0.8%，当前，委内瑞拉的原油出口量约为60万桶/日，对全球供应总量的直接影响相对有限。伊朗由于 里亚尔贬值，通胀极高以及国际制裁问题导致全国性抗议活动；同时12月乌克兰打击俄罗斯能源基础设施次数 创俄乌冲突以来新高。受地缘密集利多影响，上周布伦特原油微涨0.47美元/桶或0.78%。 2、对于后市。虽然OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但巴西、加拿大等非减产联盟国家产量预计进一步提升，供 应仍充足。后续重点关注：1）OPEC+在1月是否按计划暂停增产；2、伊朗问题走向；3、马杜罗被带走后，委内 瑞拉重油政策、产量和出口变化情况。 3、关注因素：1.地缘政治；2.原油周度数据。 | 原油 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the divergence between futures and spot prices deepening. Geopolitical changes during the New Year's holiday increased market uncertainty. The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, while the demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at an absolute high, and volatility is expected to increase significantly. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties will be key variables disturbing the market. In the medium - to - long term, the structural shortage driven by insufficient mine investment, green transformation, and AI demand is still strong, and copper prices are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - Affected by the New Year's holiday, trading days were incomplete last week. Both Shanghai copper and LME copper hit new highs at the beginning of the week and then pulled back to varying degrees [2]. - The copper market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality," with the futures - spot divergence deepening. Geopolitical changes during the holiday increased market uncertainty [2]. - The long - term supply shortage logic remains unchanged, supported by global mine disruptions and smelting - end production cut concerns. The demand side is weak due to high copper prices and the year - end adjustment period, with both production and sales weak and social inventories increasing [2]. - In the short term, copper prices are at a high level, and volatility will increase. Macro - sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties are key variables. In the medium - to - long term, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward due to structural shortages [2]. Factors to Watch - The report suggests paying attention to US PMI and non - farm payroll data, geopolitical changes, and downstream demand fluctuations [3]. Weekly Data Changes | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | 98790 | 97800 | 990 | 1.01% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%, Shanghai) | Yuan/ton | - 185 | - 350 | 165 | 47.14% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 44.76 | - 44.70 | - 0.06 | - 0.13% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 100270 | 98800 | 1470 | 1.49% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 145325 | 157025 | - 11700 | - 7.45% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 145342 | 111703 | 33639 | 30.11% | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures market, supply, demand, and inventory, with multiple data charts presented, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the text [5][12][16][24]

Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Weekly Report (January 5, 2026) [1][2] - Report Subject: PTA Futures - Analyst: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong upward trend, with the TA2605 contract closing at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The recent sharp rise in PX prices and the significant expansion of PXN have basically reflected the post - holiday expectations. In terms of supply, PX factories are more willing to increase production due to good profits, and PTA factories are selling spot PX at high prices, resulting in a more relaxed PX supply than expected. As the PTA processing fee recovers, the uncertainty of PTA plant maintenance in the first quarter increases. The downstream polyester industry experiences seasonal production cuts around the Spring Festival, strengthening the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Recently, some large polyester manufacturers plan to gradually reduce production, so PTA has limited self - driving force and mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve. It is advisable for short - term bulls to realize profits [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - PTA futures: TA2605 closed at 5,110 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton or 3.22%. PX price increases and PXN expansion have reflected post - holiday expectations. PX supply is more relaxed than expected, and PTA has a strong inventory accumulation expectation in Q1. Some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and PTA follows raw material price fluctuations. In the long - term, PTA processing fee is expected to improve, and short - term bulls should realize profits [3]. Attention Factors - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil price trends [4] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,110.00 | 5,220.00 | - 110.00 | - 2.11% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 143.11 | 141.84 | 1.27 | 0.90% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 86.83 | 84.36 | 2.47 | 2.93% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 59.55 | 60.70 | - 1.15 | - 1.89% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 363 | 360 | 3.00 | 0.83% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 4,977 | 5,038 | - 61.00 | - 1.21% | Daily | [5] PX - Related Analysis - **PX Spot and Futures Market Review**: Includes charts of PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX prices in Taiwan, and related price spreads [7][9][13] - **PX Supply Analysis**: Covers PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [14][16][18] PTA - Related Analysis - **PTA Spot and Futures Market Review**: Presents a chart of PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [21] - **PTA Supply Analysis**: Involves PTA monthly output, operating rate, and social inventory [23][28] - **PTA Consumption Analysis**: Includes PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filaments and staple fibers, operating rates of polyester chips, filaments, and staple fibers, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [29][31][34] - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: Shows a chart of PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [37][39]

高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 棕榈油期货：区间震荡整理阶段 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：12.29-1.1受元旦备货与期货走强推动，全国24度棕榈油均价从8480元/吨升至 8570元/吨，1.2后备货结束，价格稳定在 8550-8570元/吨，周涨约90 元/吨（+1.06%）。区域格局：广东 8570 元/吨、江苏8580元/吨、天津8530元/吨，港口报价随期货波动，成交以刚需为主，贸易商库存偏高， 出货意愿较强。 主产国数据：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年12月1-31日马来西亚棕榈油单 产环比上月同期减少7.39%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.13%，产量环比上月同期减少8.07%。船运调查机构 ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1240587吨，较上月同期出口的1316455吨减少5.76%。 展望：库存高企与需求平稳博弈，短期缺乏趋势性行情。本周关注马棕库存数据与国内港口库存变化， 操作以区间交易为主，防范风险。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出 ...

期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 生猪期货：反弹乏力、震荡整理 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪期现货货呈 "先强后弱、北涨南跌" 格局，期货主力震荡偏强、现货 节前冲高后随腌腊需求退潮回落，养殖端挺价与出栏节奏调整主导短期波动，整体处于底部博弈阶段。 图 1： 主力合约基差 元/吨 供应端：集团企业12月出栏完成度101.77%，1月计划环比降2.96%，养殖端挺价情绪浓，出栏节奏放缓， 二次育肥增多，短期供应减少。需求端：节前腌腊需求释放支撑价格，元旦后需求转弱，屠宰企业采购积 极性下降，北方消费韧性强于南方。 支撑因素：养殖端缩量挺价，集团出栏计划下调，二次育肥入场，北方消费支撑，猪粮比回升至盈亏 平衡线附近。压制因素：南方腌腊需求退潮，大体重猪源消化困难，市场整体供应仍充足，元旦后终端消 费转弱。分歧点：短期挺价与中期供应压力的博弈，北方消费韧性与南方需求疲软的区域分化，期货近弱 远强反映的预期差异。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一 ...

2026年1月5日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续走强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2240元/吨，广东价 格波动在2100-2190元/吨。外轮卸货较为顺畅，港口甲醇库存继续累积，前期利空出尽，加之进口量存减量 预期，提振市场偏强运行。内地甲醇价格延续下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1800-1845元/吨； 下游东营接货价格波动区间2100-2125元/吨。受元旦小长假临近、运费坚挺影响，上游为促出货主动降价， 内蒙古出厂跌至新低；虽买盘逢低刚需采购，但交投氛围清淡。前期快速下行后，受补空、刚需补货及内蒙 古部分烯烃询价带动，市场情绪回暖，上游多数竞拍溢价成交，买盘跟进改善，放量良好。局部推涨后新单 趋缓，以消化合同量为主。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计有所上升。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升。预计甲醇价格近期震荡 运行，05合约上方压力23 ...