Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market will return to economic fundamentals and policy expectations after the positive news during the meetings has been digested. Attention should be paid to subsequent economic data and policy expectations, which are key factors affecting the bond market [2]. - The economic growth target for 2025 is 5%, and the CPI target is 2%. The government debt combination for 2025 includes a 4% deficit rate, 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points from last year. Fiscal policy is the main force in economic regulation, and its strengthening may weaken the loosening of monetary policy [2]. - The bond market may gradually return to economic fundamentals as the impact of the stock market on the bond market weakens after the Two Sessions [3]. - Do not be overly bearish on the bond market and wait for policy guidance [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - **1.1 Treasury Bond Futures Market Review** - Due to the upcoming US tariff policy, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen. The stock market rebound after the Spring Festival has ended, and the stock - bond seesaw has intensified bond market fluctuations. Recently, the impact of the stock market on the bond market has weakened. With reduced exchange - rate pressure, the expectation of monetary loosening has increased again, and the bond market may gradually return to economic fundamentals [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The 3rd Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held from March 5th to March 11th, with main agendas including reviewing the government work report, examining the draft national economic and social development plan for 2025, and the draft central and local budgets for 2025 [13]. - The government will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and may cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner to maintain sufficient liquidity [13]. - Since February, at least 7 out of 19 private banks have lowered or are in the process of lowering deposit rates, and after the reduction, only the 3 - year fixed - deposit of Huatong Bank can reach a 2.9% interest rate [14]. - In February, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year [14]. - In the first two months of this year, China's goods trade started steadily, with the export scale reaching a record high for the same period. The total value of goods trade imports and exports was 6.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, but an increase of 1.7% after excluding non - comparable factors [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **3.1 Economic Fundamentals** - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption have been implemented, and detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chains have been introduced. In February, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index rose to 50.4% and 51.1% respectively. The economic data shows that economic resilience still exists, but there is still deflation pressure, and consumption stimulus is still necessary [15]. - **3.2 Policy Aspect** - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate, expenditure intensity, and the scale of government bond issuance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and in February, new RMB loans increased significantly, providing strong support for the real economy [20]. - **3.3 Capital Aspect** - The tight capital situation eased on February 27th, and the pressure on the capital side has recently weakened, which supports the bond market. With the weakening of exchange - rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary loosening may increase. Currently, the capital level is similar to that in the third quarter of last year, and the year - end capital disturbance factors have basically disappeared [20]. - **3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect** - The government debt combination in 2025 leads to a significant increase in the broad deficit rate. As of March 3rd, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds have been issued, with about 1.9 trillion yuan issued in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of about 97%. The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, and the issuance of special bonds has also picked up speed recently [23]. - **3.5 Sentiment Aspect** - The stock - bond ratio has started to decline from a historical high but remains at a high level, indicating that the cost - effectiveness of allocating to the bond market is currently low, and institutions are more likely to focus on the stock market. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly improved recently, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the previous period. The bond market is still in a bullish trend in terms of economic fundamentals, but it is greatly disturbed by the stock market in the short term and may return to economic fundamentals later [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Spring Festival, the A - share market has warmed up, and the stock - bond seesaw logic has continued. Affected by fiscal bond issuance, the capital side has been continuously tight, and the bond market has continued to decline. Currently, the downward momentum of the bond market has weakened, and the market is paying attention to the future trend of the stock market and policy expectations. The bond market will gradually return to economic fundamentals [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PX has entered the intensive maintenance season, with its load gradually declining and a promising de - stocking expectation in the second quarter. Given its low valuation, the price support for PX is expected to strengthen. For PTA, the 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned this week, leading to increased load and decreased processing fees. The terminal demand negatively impacts the improvement of PTA processing fees and sentiment, limiting its rebound space. PTA should be treated with a sideways trading approach [2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA05 contract showed a sideways movement. The weekly opening price was 4872, the highest was 4948, the lowest was 4824, and the closing price was 4894, with a weekly increase of 16 or 0.33% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Short - term Boost for PX, Intensive Maintenance from March to April - In 2024, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity is coming to an end, with only a 3 - million - ton new capacity plan for Yulongdao. There is no new project expected in 2025. It is estimated that the domestic PX output from January to March 2025 will be 9.51 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.21%, and the import from January to February 2025 will be 1.395 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. The current PX开工率 in China is 85.7% (- 0.5%), and in Asia is 77.4% (- 0.1%). The PX processing fee on Friday was 203 US dollars per ton (down 12 from last week). Multiple domestic and overseas PX plants have maintenance or production reduction plans. With the entry into the intensive maintenance season in late March, the PX load is declining, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter is promising. Supported by the short - term high load of polyester and its low valuation, the price support for PX is strengthening [5] 2.2 Limited Improvement in PTA Supply, Processing Fees Fluctuating at a Low Level - It is estimated that the domestic PTA output from January to February 2025 will be 11.81 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The average monthly load in February was around 79.2%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from January. The PTA load has increased to 79.3%, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The current PTA开工率 in China is 76.8% (+ 3.2%), and the spot processing fee on Friday was 231 yuan per ton (down 47 from last week). The 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned, increasing the load and reducing the processing fee. The PTA supply - demand pattern has improved recently, and attention should be paid to the implementation of PTA plant maintenance in April, which also affects the PX de - stocking intensity [8] 2.3 High Polyester Load May Be Lower Than Last Year - It is estimated that the domestic polyester output from January to February 2025 will be 11.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 74% (unchanged), the texturing load is 85% (+ 1%), the polyester开工率 is 91.5% (+ 2.7%), and the direct - spinning filament load is 94.9% (+ 2.3%). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY are 25.5 days (+ 0.4), 31.5 days (+ 1.0), and 33.1 days (- 0.5) respectively. The downstream weaving and texturing operations remained stable this week. Currently, the high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor post - holiday orders have led to the weaving operation reaching a peak, which is generally lower than last year. The sustainability of the operation depends on the order strength. If the orders remain weak, the operation may be reduced. In the polyester sector, although there was a concentrated restocking by downstream customers during the filament promotion this week, the strength was limited. With the decline in raw material prices, the downstream stocking mentality is cautious, and the filament inventory continues to accumulate slightly. In terms of textile and clothing exports from January to February 2025, the cumulative export was 42.88 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The export of textiles was 21.22 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the export of clothing was 21.66 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The two 10% tariff increases by the US have put pressure on textile and clothing export expectations. Overall, the PTA industry operation has dropped to a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, while the polyester plant operation is acceptable. Affected by the high grey fabric inventory and few orders, the overall downstream load recovery is lower than expected, and the domestic demand shows no sign of improvement [9][11] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - As PX has entered the intensive maintenance season, its load is gradually declining, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter is promising. With its low valuation, the price support for PX is expected to strengthen. For PTA, the 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned this week, increasing the load and reducing the processing fee. Attention should be paid to the implementation of PTA plant maintenance in April. The high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor post - holiday orders have led to the weaving operation reaching a peak, which is generally lower than last year. If the orders remain weak, the operation may be reduced. Overall, the terminal demand negatively impacts the improvement of PTA processing fees and sentiment, limiting its rebound space. A sideways trading approach should be adopted [13]

原油短期缺乏下跌基础 摘 要： 供应的变局一方面是 OPEC+有望逐步释放自愿减产产 量，另一方面是补偿性减产，对超产行为的惩罚性措施， 确保增产过程中不因成员国违规导致供应失控。补偿性减 产计划可延后供应增加的时间（测算直到 6 月份供应才能 增加），但不会改变供应增加的事实。不确定性还在美国- 伊朗、美国-委内瑞拉制裁力度之上，甚至对俄罗斯的制裁。 短期制裁威胁仍在，短期缺乏下跌基础。技术看，盘面修 复补偿性减产后，进入调整，等待技术调整后的低位偏多 机会。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：逢低做多 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 原油震荡偏强。SC2505 周度开 533，最高 545，最低 530，收盘 542，周度涨 7.8 或 1.46%。 05 合约震荡偏强。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPE ...

宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 猪价短期震荡运行，中长期偏强运行 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，养殖端出栏或无明显调整，尤其规模 企业目前出栏进度尚可，无明显增减，供应端变化不明显。 从需求端来看，天气转暖，节日库存消化陆续结束， 且清明节在即，需求或小幅增加，但需求恢复缓慢，且同 比二育进场数量不多。需求端或小幅增加，但利好有限。 综合来看，预计均价重心小幅上移。生猪市场供应端 出栏或无明显增加，月初开始，清明节前少量备货，尤其 南方祭祀活动，需求端缓慢恢复，略有支撑，价格或稳定 偏强。操作上建议短多交易为主。 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 生猪专题报告 1.生猪 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Futures Weekly Report [1][8] - Report Date: March 31, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. The market's expectation of production cuts increased, boosting sentiment, but due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [2][4]. - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak while supply expansion pressure remains, and market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the active production cuts of Xinjiang steel mills, the market's expectation of production cuts increased, and the spot market saw both volume and price increase. However, due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 23, Premier Li Qiang stated that more proactive macro - policies will be implemented, and counter - cyclical adjustment efforts will be further increased [6]. - On March 24, the Ministry of Finance announced that the 2025 fiscal policy will be more proactive, supporting the expansion of domestic demand [6]. - The vice - secretary of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main contradiction in the industry, and establishing a new capacity governance mechanism is the key [6]. - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was - 1.55 billion yuan [6]. - As of March 24, the number of national automobile trade - in applications exceeded 1.5 million, and the number of home appliance and electric bicycle trade - ins also increased significantly [6]. - In April, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 24 million units, a 9.1% increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 8.09 million units, a 6.7% decrease year - on - year; the production schedule of washing machines is 7.4 million units, a 1.4% increase year - on - year [7]. - In mid - March 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased by 1.6%, 2.1%, and 5.3% respectively [7]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 115,000 tons, higher than last week's 105,100 tons. The trading volume in the northern region increased significantly due to improved construction conditions [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak, and supply expansion pressure remains. Market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. - Investment Strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, take profits; for steel profits, mainly wait and see [2][21]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market's supply - demand fundamentals are improving with increased demand in the March construction season, slower supply expansion, and larger inventory declines. Steel prices are in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. - For crude oil, supply - side factors drive the market, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [1]. - The outlook for iron ore prices is cautiously optimistic due to improved market sentiment and demand, but limited fundamental improvement and supply constraints [3]. - For PTA, a buy - on - dips strategy is suggested, considering PX's expected price support and PTA's device maintenance and downstream demand [4]. - For live pigs, short - term long positions in near - month contracts and long - term long positions in LH2509 contracts are recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and a sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [6]. - Treasury bonds may face a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillation, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be monitored [6]. - Precious metals are in an upward - trending oscillation due to increased risk - aversion sentiment [8]. - Methanol's 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a wait - and - see or short - term long - position strategy is recommended [8]. - Soda ash's 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended until it stabilizes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Steel - As of March 27, weekly thread production was 227.43 million tons, up 1.22 million tons (0.54%) from last week; factory inventory was 209.53 million tons, down 9.51 million tons (4.34%); social inventory was 609.58 million tons, down 8.38 million tons (1.36%); apparent demand was 245.32 million tons, up 2.33 million tons (0.96%) [1]. Crude Oil - The IEA predicts that global daily oil demand will increase by 830,000 barrels in 2024, less than the 2.1 million barrels per day increase in 2023. As of the week of March 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000 [1]. Iron Ore - From March 17 - 23, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 26.396 billion tons, a decrease of 3.554 billion tons from the previous period; at 45 ports, it was 25.106 billion tons, a decrease of 3.658 billion tons; at six northern ports, it was 12.407 billion tons, a decrease of 1.907 billion tons [3]. PTA - PXCFR is currently at $837 per ton, PX - N is $202 per ton; East China PTA is at 4,900 yuan per ton, and PTA's cash - flow cost is 4,741 yuan per ton. PTA's social inventory is 4.7576 billion tons, a decrease of 648,000 tons from the previous period; PTA's capacity utilization rate is 80.48%, and polyester's comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 91.24% [4]. Live Pigs - On March 27, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.11, up 0.01 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.17, up 0.02 points. As of 14:00, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 20.74 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil product exports in January were 1.96 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons in the same period last year and 2.06 million tons last month. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April to $961.54 per ton [6]. Treasury Bonds - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 910.99 billion yuan, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [6]. Gold - Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars has led to opposition from multiple countries and regions, increasing risk - aversion sentiment [7][8]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,687 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton; methanol's capacity utilization rate is 85.27%, a 0.79% weekly decrease; the 1 - million - ton/year coal - to - methanol device of Inner Mongolia Jiutai has completed maintenance this week; the total downstream capacity utilization rate is 75.47%, a 0.73% weekly decrease; China's methanol port sample inventory is 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons; the sample production enterprise inventory is 327,800 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons; the sample enterprise's pending orders are 236,200 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1,509 yuan per ton, with stable prices; weekly soda ash production is 690,200 tons, a 5.81% increase from the previous day; the maintenance of Jinshan and Jiangsu Jingshen has ended, and the equipment of Yantai and Qinghai Kunlun has been restored; the 1.1 - million - ton/year new production capacity of Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.63 million tons, a 3.42% decrease; the operating rate of float glass is 75.42%, a 0.34% weekly decrease; the average price of national float glass is 1,266 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 67.012 million heavy boxes, a 3.52% decrease [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various commodities, including gold, crude oil, etc., and offers trading suggestions based on market conditions and influencing factors [2][3]. Group 3: Commodity Summaries Gold - Concerns about the global trade war have weakened the liquidity of the US stock market. The liquidity indicators of Deutsche Bank and Citigroup based on the S&P 500 stock index futures are at a two - year low. The global tariff war has intensified, and the risk - aversion sentiment still exists. The US stocks lack upward momentum, and the rebound of the US dollar index is limited. The Fed is still observing the need for further interest rate cuts. Precious metals have limited short - term upward momentum but are expected to be bullish in the medium term [2]. Crude Oil - The EIA report shows that the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.341 million barrels to 434 million barrels in the week ending March 21, a decrease of 0.76%. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.446 million barrels. The US domestic crude oil production increased by 0.1 million barrels to 13.574 million barrels per day. The market's concern about global supply shortages has intensified due to the decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories and the US threat to impose tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude oil. International oil prices have risen by 1%. Supply - side factors are affecting the market, and geopolitics and sanctions are the main driving forces for the rebound of crude oil. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]. 螺纹钢 - On March 26, the domestic steel market fluctuated. The ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the price of building materials by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,382 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The fundamentals have improved during the construction season, and steel prices have been strong recently. However, the slow recovery of demand remains unchanged, especially the poor sales of high - priced resources. Traders mainly focus on quick - in and quick - out operations, and speculative demand is average. In the short term, the upward trend of steel prices is weakening, and they may adjust slightly [5]. 焦煤 - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants in the country was 61.99%, a decrease of 0.61% from the previous period. The daily average output was 522,400 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons. The raw coal inventory was 2.7149 million tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons. The clean coal inventory was 2.1392 million tons, a decrease of 149,500 tons. Terminal hot metal production has continued to rise, demand has improved, and after 11 consecutive rounds of price cuts for coke, the price has dropped to a multi - year low. Some coal mines have reached the production cost line, some speculative demand has been released, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has also improved. However, there is still a lack of continuous upward driving force. It is expected that the coal - coke market will remain stable in the short term [5]. 国债 - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders had a video call, exchanging views on important issues in the bilateral economic and trade field. The negative impact of tariffs may gradually appear, and the risk - aversion sentiment has boosted the bond market rebound. There are still expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the market, and the market may return to the economic fundamentals. With the continuous issuance of bonds, the capital side remains tight, which still puts pressure on the bond market. The influencing factors of treasury bonds are more complex, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillation. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. 生猪 - On March 26, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.1, unchanged from the previous day, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.15, also unchanged. As of 14:00 on March 26, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.3% from the previous day. Recently, the national pig price has remained stable. Farmers are selling pigs according to the market, small - scale farmers are waiting and watching, and some enterprises are controlling the supply. However, slaughtering enterprises are still cautious in purchasing, and demand is weak. The supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to go long on near - month contracts in the short term and long - term layout of the LH2509 contract. Farmers can sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. 棕榈油 - From March 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of fresh palm fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and the palm oil production increased by 5.10%. The export volume of palm oil products from March 1 - 25 was 678,698 tons, a decrease of 29,978 tons or 4.23% compared with the same period last month. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased while exports have decreased, and overseas consumption demand is weak, lacking positive news. In China, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been inverted. Recently, some ships have arrived at ports in some markets, and downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices for rigid demand. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to international biodiesel policies, high - frequency supply - demand data from the origin, and domestic inventory changes [7]. PTA - The CFR price of PX is currently 837 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 202 US dollars/ton. The price of PTA in East China is 4,900 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost of PTA is 4,741 yuan/ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 11 - 21 days. In the second quarter, the de - stocking expectation of PX is considerable, and the PX price is expected to be supported. For PTA, attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance of PTA plants such as Yisheng Hainan in April. Downstream, the inventory of weaving grey cloth is high, and the orders after the Spring Festival are poor. The operating rate of weaving is approaching the peak and is lower than last year. If orders remain weak, the operating rate may be reduced. Overall, maintenance supports the rebound of PTA, but the negative feedback of terminal demand affects the improvement of PTA processing fees and market sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][9]. 甲醇 - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The methanol production capacity utilization rate is 85.27%, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. The 1 - million - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant of Inner Mongolia Jiutai has completed maintenance this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate is 75.47%, a weekly decrease of 0.73%. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 773,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 26,300 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises is 327,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,600 tons. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 236,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,700 tons. The expected price of coal on the cost side is weak. The current profit of methanol is acceptable, and the domestic methanol production is expected to operate at a high level. Downstream demand is gradually recovering. This week, the methanol port inventory continued to decrease. The main storage areas in Jiangsu had good提货 under the support of trans - shipment and downstream shipments along the Yangtze River. The auction of inland methanol enterprises was acceptable. The basis of the port methanol market is weakly stable, and the negotiation and trading volume is average. It is expected that the methanol 05 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2,560 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short - term long [8]. 纯碱 - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country is 1,509 yuan/ton, and the price is relatively stable. The operating rate of soda ash is 85.3%, unchanged from the previous day. The maintenance of Jinshan and Jiangsu Jingshen has ended, and the equipment of Yanhu and Qinghai Kunlun has been restored. The new production capacity of 1.1 million tons/year of Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.6878 million tons, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous period. The operating rate of float glass is 75.76%, a weekly decrease of 0.34%. The average price of float glass in the country is 1,266 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country is 69.46 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous period. The operating rate of float glass is relatively stable, and the factory shipments in the Shahe market are generally good, but the market is still tepid. Downstream buyers are purchasing for rigid demand. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with supply hovering at a high level, new orders being average, and downstream demand being average, mainly for on - demand procurement. It is expected that the soda ash 05 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 1,420 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short - term long [10].

重点品种： 今 日 早 评 【短评-原油】美国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年3月21 日当周，美国商业原油库存减少460万桶；同期美国汽油库存减 少330万桶；馏分油库存减少130万桶。根据俄罗斯克里姆林宫 网站25日公布的通报，俄美会谈主要成果包括五项：俄美双方 同意确保落实黑海港口农产品外运协议、美国推动恢复俄罗斯 农产品和化肥向世界市场出口准入、俄美为停止打击俄罗斯和 乌克兰能源设施制定措施、俄美欢迎第三方就落实能源和海事 协议开展斡旋、俄美将继续致力于实现持久和平。评：地缘和 制裁是前期原油反弹的主要动力。隔夜有关俄乌战争谈判缓解 了石油供应的压力，经济衰退及需求疲弱的风险也暂时退场不 过并未消除，4月份随着欧佩克+逐步退出自愿减产的执行及特 朗普关税举措可能会再次冲击市场。短线交易为佳。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1510元/吨，价格较 稳；纯碱开工85.3%，环比上日+2.8%；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯碱厂家总库存168.78万吨，环比下降 2.73%；浮法玻璃开工率75.76%，周度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报841美元/吨，PX-N205美元/吨； 华东PTA报4830元/吨，PTA现金流成本为4752元/吨。PTA负荷提 升至79.3%，处于历年同期中性水平。本周装置变动较多，恒力 3线220万吨、仪化300万吨恢复运行三房巷120万吨重启中，逸 盛大化375万吨按计划检修。评：随着PX正式进入集中检修季， 近期PX负荷逐步下滑，二季度PX整体去库预期可观；叠加目前 PX整体估值偏低，预计PX价格支撑逐步转强。PTA方面，本周三 套检修装置复工，PTA负荷提升至中位数水平，关注后续4月逸 盛海南等PTA装置检修兑现情况，下游看，织造坯布库存偏高叠 加年后接单较差，织造开机趋于见顶，整体不如去年；如果订 单持续疲弱，不排除开机可能会下调。整体上，终端需求负反 馈影响PTA加工费改善效果及心态，当前PTA反弹空间仍依赖原 油。逢低做多思路。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1505元/吨，下降13元 /吨；纯碱开工82.49%，开工提升；金山、江苏井神检修结束， 盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；江苏德邦60万吨/年、连云港碱业 110万吨/年新产能预期一季度投产 ...