Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties across different commodities. Each commodity has its own unique situation, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term supply - demand challenges. Overall, most commodities are expected to have a range - bound performance in the short term [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - US commercial crude inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025. Year - to - date, US crude inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels. The stalemate in the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan and reports of Russia considering additional fuel export restrictions have boosted oil prices. However, there is still pressure from supply surplus. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Rubber - Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends. The 18th typhoon "Huksa" may land in the central and western coastal areas of Guangdong. The typhoon disrupts rubber tapping, and downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended with slow inventory reduction. China's natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and a larger and more sustained market requires demand - side support. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it should be treated with a range - bound view [2] Manganese Silicon - The开工率 of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 45.68%, a decrease of 1.70% from last week, and the daily output is 29,825 tons, a decrease of 765 tons. The overall production cost of manganese silicon has declined, and the industry profit has been slightly repaired. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the output of finished products in the peak season is expected to rise. However, the supply of manganese silicon is still high, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing. The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price, but the price may decline after the peak season [4] Lithium Carbonate - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Macro - policies affect futures fluctuations. Some mines in Jiangxi have not given responses on the supply side, while the energy - storage demand is on an upward trend. High inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to go long on LC2511 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton [5] Rebar - On September 23, domestic steel prices turned from rising to falling. To deal with the typhoon, "five - stop" measures were implemented in Guangdong, which hindered logistics and transportation. The supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday improved little, with general and unstable trading and low market confidence. Steel prices have fallen from high levels [6] PTA - This week, domestic PTA production was 1.4309 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.29%. Supply is expected to increase. Polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing short - term support, but the expectation of new orders and load improvement is limited. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. Crude oil is fluctuating. PTA should be regarded as range - bound and weak [6] Live Pigs - On September 23, the average price of pork in the wholesale market increased by 0.1%. The previous continuous decline in pig prices has led to increased market resistance, and local second - fattening inquiries have increased, slowing down the decline. However, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, the breeding side's willingness to support prices is rising. Short - term long positions can be tried, but the upside space is limited [7] Palm Oil - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month, and exports decreased by 16.1%. The cancellation of Argentina's export tariff impacts international vegetable oil prices, while China and India's low - price replenishment boosts exports. It is recommended to go long at low prices and keep an eye on Argentina's soybean exports [8] Rapeseed Meal - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased to 45,500 tons from the previous week. The decline in US soybean futures prices has dragged down the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the market sentiment caused by Argentina's tariff cancellation fades, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate in the short term. Key factors to watch include China - Canada trade policies, upstream production, and downstream procurement [9] Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate has decreased from a high level, while downstream demand has increased. The expected import volume in September remains high, and port inventory continues to accumulate. The inland methanol market has declined, and port market trading is average. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will be range - bound and weak in the short term, with resistance at 2,375 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating a looser money supply, which is beneficial to the bond market. In the third quarter, there are still disturbances from bond supply - demand and the stock market. A range - bound view should be taken for short - term Treasury bond futures [10] Silver - Powell's remarks about high US stock valuations led to a decline in US stocks overnight, which is negative for silver. Silver has a short - term callback demand but is still range - bound and bullish. The impact of gold on silver should be monitored [11] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 2.02% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 2.33%. The float - glass operating rate is stable, and demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and limited demand fluctuations. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [12] Gold - There are significant differences within the Fed regarding future monetary policy. Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the safe - haven sentiment is driving up the price of gold. Gold is range - bound and bullish [13] Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has declined. Production has increased by 3.21% week - on - week, and enterprise inventory has decreased. Downstream operating rates are expected to rise, but pre - holiday restocking is not active. The cost side provides strong support. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,090 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [13]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】科威特石油部长Al Barra在接受当地媒体采 访时表示，该国原油产能为每日320万桶，根据OPEC+协议，科 威特将自10月起把原油产量提高至每日255.9万桶，部长同时强 调，OPEC+最新的增产决定与市场动态相关，未来增产措施可视 情况暂停或逆转；能源年鉴2025报告：石油仍然是最大的能源 来源，2024年满足了全球34%的能源总需求。尽管全球需求放 缓，但仍增长了0.7%，首次突破101百万桶/日的水平。评：对 未来供应过剩的担忧盖过了地缘政治紧张带来的影响，国际油 价连续第四天下跌。整体上，OPEC+从今年4月开始逐步增产， 10月将再次增产13.7万桶/日，其增产趋势增加了全球原油供应 量，非OPEC+产油国供应量也维持在高位，原油市场整体供应宽 松的格局使油价承压运行。逢高沽空为佳。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格55.8泰铢/公斤，杯胶价 格50.35泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格14500元/吨，制浓乳 胶价格16200元/吨；据统计，截至2025年9月21日，青岛地区天 胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量46.12万吨（库存调整后上期总库 存46.47万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis The report includes charts such as the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial hogs (in kilograms), and the inventory structure of commercial hogs by weight (in %) [5][6][9]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis The report analyzes demand through charts of the开工率 of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) and the frozen product storage capacity ratio of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) [12][15]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis The report presents the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (in yuan per head) and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding (in yuan per head) through relevant charts [17][19]. 4. Market Outlook The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for steel is relatively strong, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The market's fundamental contradictions have eased, and market sentiment has been somewhat restored. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate with an upward bias next week [2][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - As of September 19, the average price of 20mm Grade III earthquake-resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,299 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton. This week, the prices of construction steel products fluctuated upward. Taking rebar as an example, the price increase in the East China market was relatively large, with a week-on-week increase of 40 - 50 yuan/ton. Macro positive expectations were realized this week, the small-sample social inventory decreased, steel mill profits continued to narrow, production decreased slightly, the market's fundamental contradictions eased, and raw material support remained [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce's International Trade Negotiation Representative and Deputy Minister Li Chenggang stated on the evening of the 15th that China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue through cooperation, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [6]. - From January to August, the country's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with the growth rate dropping by 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points [6]. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 347.83 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.12452 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 2.81772 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9% [6]. - The Federal Reserve announced at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, the first interest rate cut this year and a resumption of rate cuts after a nine-month hiatus. The Fed's latest dot plot predicts two more rate cuts this year (25 basis points each), one more than the June forecast [6]. - In August, China's automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [7]. - In August, China's air conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; washing machine production was 10.132 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; color TV production was 18.016 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [7]. - According to Jinshi Futures on September 18, this week, Mysteel's statistics showed that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a week-on-week increase of 1.9%. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 44,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,000 tons; the daily average production of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 33,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 217,000 tons [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 106,500 tons, higher than last week's 103,100 tons. As the month enters its second half, the market still expects a recovery in demand during the traditional peak season. In fact, due to improved weather, the demand for building materials has been gradually recovering [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supported by positive market expectations, steel mill production has decreased slightly, social inventory has started to decline, and raw material support remains. Overall, the market's fundamental contradictions have eased, and market sentiment has been somewhat restored. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate with an upward bias next week [27]. - From the market perspective, the black series closed higher on Friday. Among them, the main contract of coking coal had the highest increase of 1.36%. The increases of iron ore, coke, and rebar were similar, while hot-rolled coil was the weakest. The main rebar contract closed at 3,172, up 23 points on the day, 25 points higher than last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 3,159, up 10 points from last week. The latest position was 1.97 million lots, a decrease of 30,000 lots from last Friday. The position shifted from increasing while prices declined last week to decreasing while prices rose this week, and the profit margins for both long and short positions were relatively limited. Next week, continue to monitor the rebound strength, with the upper resistance level at 3,208 and the support level around 3,140 [27]. - Investment strategies: For single-side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is to be bullish with fluctuations [4] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the dollar strengthened, and precious metals corrected to some extent. With the expectation of continuous Fed rate cuts, precious metals may experience a continuous rate - cut market, and the timing is crucial. The US economy shows some resilience but still has significant downward pressure. The RMB exchange rate has limited impact on precious metals [2][3][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was less than market expectations, the dollar index rose sharply, and precious metals corrected. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, another 50 basis points. Gold and silver may rise synchronously under the expectation of continuous Fed rate cuts, and the short - term fluctuations of gold also affect the rise of silver [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund for infrastructure. The US government requested the Supreme Court to allow Trump to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook. The US initial jobless claims dropped, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined [12][15][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US September Michigan consumer confidence index hit a new low since May, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose. The August ISM manufacturing index was below expectations, and the output index entered the contraction range. The second - quarter GDP and core PCE inflation data were released. The initial jobless claims decreased, indicating increased downward pressure on the US economy [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US in Spain to discuss trade issues. Trump said he was ready to impose second - stage sanctions on Russia and would impose tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not move production to the US. Geopolitical tensions have increased [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US August non - farm payrolls increased less than expected, the unemployment rate rose, and the ISM manufacturing index was below expectations. The July service PMI hit a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is affected by production cuts, and the copper prices at home and abroad diverge. With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut, US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts, the dollar index may decline, and the RMB has an appreciation expectation. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited [25] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Most Fed officials believe that a 75 - basis - point rate cut this year is appropriate, and precious metals may experience a continuous rate - cut market. The Fed defines this rate cut as a defensive one [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The downstream replenishment demand is obvious, and the price of coking coal has risen [2][5]. - The supply of coal mines has increased slightly this week, but the market is worried about coal mine production cuts due to over - production inspections in Inner Mongolia. The resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream has increased significantly [2]. - Before the festival, inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited. It is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. On Monday, mainstream steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places lowered the tender price of coke. The wet - quenched coke was lowered by 50 yuan/ton, and the dry - quenched coke was lowered by 55 yuan/ton, which was the second round of price cuts. On Thursday, an individual coke enterprise in Inner Mongolia sent a letter to increase the price by 50/55 yuan/ton, but mainstream steel mills have not responded [2][5]. - After two rounds of price cuts, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk, and some have started to lose money. The coking plants maintain the previous production rhythm, and the downstream replenishment demand is obvious. The price of coking coal has risen, with more price increases and fewer price decreases in auctions [2][5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - China and the United States have reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation [7]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, with a growth rate decline of 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a growth rate decline of 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding by 0.9 percentage points [7]. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.26 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.12452 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [7]. - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points, and it is expected to cut interest rates twice more this year [7]. - In August, China's automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [8]. - In August, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [8]. - This week, the approved production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 217,000 tons [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: This week, the coal mine production increased slightly, but the over - production inspection document in Inner Mongolia has once again triggered market concerns about coal mine production cuts, and the resumption of production in coal mines is slow in the short term [2]. - Demand: On the 15th, the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but the rapid rise in coal prices drove an individual coke enterprise in the Ordos market to increase the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on the 18th. Currently, mainstream coke enterprises have not raised prices, and steel mills have not responded. This week, the steel mill's hot - metal output continued to rise slightly, and the coke enterprises maintained high - level production. The rigid demand for coking coal is stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong that previously stopped or reduced production have resumed normal production, but some fat - coal mines in Inner Mongolia have stopped production due to over - production. The total output has increased slightly. Overall, the pre - festival inventory preparation has started, and the futures and spot markets have rebounded in resonance. Due to the impact of over - production inspections, the subsequent increase in coal mine production is limited, and it is expected that coal prices will fluctuate strongly [30]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to oscillate in the medium term due to the combination of supply - demand factors and the stock - bond seesaw effect. Economic recovery in September is a long - term negative for the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market. The operation of the bond market is likely to face increased difficulty [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the accelerated pace of fiscal bond issuance and the tight balance of liquidity have a bearish impact on the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market into a continuous downward trend, but this logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, increasing the difficulty of market operation [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The second re - issuance of the fourth tranche of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has completed the tendering, with the overall issuance scale reaching 114.8 billion yuan and the issuance progress at 88.3% [10]. - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [10]. - Affected by the high base and food prices, China's CPI in August was flat month - on - month, down 0.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the increase has expanded for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [14]. - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars were up 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports were up 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14]. - The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tendering, and multi - price winning bids, with the operation time and scale determined according to liquidity management needs [13]. - Market expectations for the restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations are gradually rising [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity generally continued to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month - on - month. The GDP in the second quarter was up 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations. The economic data in August shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and if counter - cyclical regulation continues to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long term [15]. 3.2 Policy Front - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The social financing stock reached 43.126 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap in August indicates strengthened economic activities [17]. 3.3 Capital Front - Since July 25, DR007 has been declining, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain sufficient liquidity. The Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of domestic monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases suddenly [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Front - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this year and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The support from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [21]. 3.5 Sentiment Front - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term oscillation range, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly declined recently, it is still at a high level. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital front, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing the supply and putting pressure on the liquidity of the inter - bank market. The tight balance of liquidity has increased the bearish factors for the bond market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, whether the risk appetite will continue to increase and whether the stock - bond seesaw will be bearish for the bond market need to be continuously observed. The combination of the stock - bond seesaw logic and loose liquidity may increase the difficulty of bond market operation [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: After geopolitical factors are digested, the oversupply expectation remains the dominant factor for oil prices. OPEC+ is increasing production, and non - OPEC+ supply is high. It is advisable to short at high prices [1]. - **Gold**: The US government shutdown negotiation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing a rebound in gold. The Fed's independence is controversial, adding uncertainty. Gold is long - term bullish but requires further short - term observation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, but the impact of over - production inspections persists. With pre - holiday stockpiling and futures - spot resonance, coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas shipments have returned to normal, and supply is stable. Demand is supported in the short term, and there is an expectation of restocking, which strongly supports ore prices [4]. - **Rebar**: With a warm macro - environment, production is decreasing due to low profits. Demand is picking up, and the fundamentals are improving, providing strong support for the price [5]. - **Pig**: The market is currently oversupplied, but after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance is increasing. Short - term long positions can be attempted [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The increase in the reference price supports the futures price, but domestic supply is expected to be loose. It is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price has room for limited decline. It is advisable to restock at low prices before the holidays, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2970 - 3050 [7]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. It should be treated with a neutral view [8]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamental contradiction is limited. With low inventory and some demand, the price is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is decreasing, and downstream demand is rising. The port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is adjusting, with high - level inventory decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is slowly improving. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [12]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The restart of 14 - day reverse repurchase has different impacts on the bond market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Silver**: The US infrastructure investment plan increases risk preference, and silver is expected to fluctuate bullishly [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of September 19, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 418, the highest since July. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and non - OPEC+ supply is also high [1]. Metals - **Gold**: The US Senate Democrats blocked the Republican's temporary appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: As of a certain date, the inventory of 45 ports was 13,801.08 million tons, a decrease of 48.39 million tons. The daily dredging volume increased by 7.89 million tons [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%. Production decreased, and demand increased [5]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of September 19, the average slaughter weight was 123.51 kg, the weekly slaughter rate was 32.06%, and the breeding profit decreased [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia raised the October reference price, and the export volume from September 1 - 20 increased by 8.7% compared to the same period last month [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of September 19, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises were 9.42 days, an increase of 2.20% from September 12 [7]. Chemicals - **Coking Coal**: The daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.65 million tons, and the coking coal inventory was 790.34 million tons, a decrease of 3.39 million tons [3]. - **Rubber**: The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream tire enterprise inventory is high, limiting restocking enthusiasm [8]. - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 enterprises was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.5%. The factory and social inventories decreased [9]. - **Methanol**: The domestic capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 4.68%. The port inventory increased by 0.75 million tons [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The weekly output was 74.57 million tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [12]. - **Polypropylene**: The capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.29%. The commercial inventory decreased by 3.59 million tons [12]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, increasing the release of medium - and long - term liquidity [13]. - **Silver**: The US is considering a $550 billion infrastructure investment fund, which increases risk preference [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report Core Views - For coking coal, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the upward momentum depends on "anti - involution" drivers. The coking coal main contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term [1]. - For crude oil, the supply pressure remains, and it is advisable to sell at high prices as the concerns about the US economy outweigh the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the peak demand season is ending, and the US dollar index rebounds [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly as the global iron ore shipment volume rebounds, the arrival volume fluctuates slightly, the molten iron output fluctuates narrowly at a high level, and the port inventory is expected to increase [4]. - For rebar, the steel price may fluctuate narrowly in the short term as the "Golden September" steel demand recovers slowly, the high - priced resource transactions are poor, the supply - demand fundamentals improve limitedly, and the market sentiment turns cautious [4]. - For live pigs, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust at a low level in the short term as the supply exceeds demand, but some regions have stopped falling and stabilized [5]. - For palm oil, it may trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic supply is loose, but the cost side provides strong support [5]. - For rapeseed meal, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate downward in the short term as the feed demand decreases significantly and the actual new order volume of spot goods is poor [6]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a range - bound view as it is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, with high overseas raw material prices, continuous destocking of spot inventory, and weakening consumption [7]. - For PTA, the spot market may decline under pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to sell at high prices in the short - term as the terminal performance is mediocre in the traditional peak season, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost side is under pressure [7]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic methanol start - up rate drops from a high level, the downstream demand recovers, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate downward in the medium term and upward in the long term, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted as the initial jobless claims decline shows economic resilience, but the economic downward pressure is still large [9]. - For gold, it is bearish in the short term, and the medium - and long - term trends need further observation as the Fed's interest - rate cut is implemented, and the Fed's independence is controversial [9]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, they may fluctuate in the short term as the issuance of ultra - long - term treasury bonds increases the bond supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut may have limited positive effects on the bond market [10]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the domestic soda ash market stabilizes, the manufacturer's inventory decreases from a high level, and the downstream demand is stable [12]. - For plastics, the L2601 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the LLDPE price is stable, the production enterprise inventory decreases, the supply side starts at a high level, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise [13]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines is 84.7%, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The daily average output of raw coal is 190,000 tons, a 44,000 - ton increase; the raw coal inventory is 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily average output of clean coal is 76,100 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase; the clean coal inventory is 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease [1]. Crude Oil - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory is 2.761 billion barrels, a 2.4 - million - barrel increase from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it is 66.5 million barrels less, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019. The freight rate of large oil tankers soared to the highest level in more than two years on September 18, and the freight rate index (TD3C) of the key route from the Middle East to China reached W108, a nearly 150% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. Iron Ore - From September 8 - 14, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2.3923 million tons, a 180,600 - ton decrease; at 45 ports, it is 2.3623 million tons, an 85,700 - ton decrease; at six northern ports, it is 1.245 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending September 18, the rebar output is 206,450 tons, a 54,800 - ton decrease from last week, a 2.59% decline; the factory inventory is 165,070 tons, a 15,600 - ton decrease, a 0.94% decline; the social inventory is 485,210 tons, a 20,200 - ton decrease, a 0.41% decline; the apparent demand is 210,030 tons, an 119,600 - ton increase, a 6.04% increase [4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" is 117.90, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index is 118.67. The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.55 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease from the previous day; the egg price is 8.40 yuan/kg, a 1.6% increase [5]. Palm Oil - In August, China's palm oil imports are 340,000 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.59 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's soybean oil imports are 100,000 tons, a 113.9% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 19 tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. Rapeseed Meal - In August, China's imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 140,000 tons, an 18.7% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.45 million tons, a 24.1% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are 1.9756 million tons, accounting for 94.8% of the total rapeseed imports [6]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 51.65 Thai baht/kg. The price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 16,300 yuan/ton. In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reach 650,000 tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, China's rubber tire production is 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production is 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [6][7]. PTA - The PTA social inventory is 3.3091 million tons, a 24,200 - ton decrease from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 77.29%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 88.0% [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,247 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate is 79.91%, a 4.68% decrease. The 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant of Shenhua Xinjiang is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.87%, a 2.2% weekly increase. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5578 million tons, a 7,500 - ton weekly increase. The sample production enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, a 2,100 - ton weekly decrease. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 233,800 tons, a 16,900 - ton weekly decrease [8]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, with an expected 240,000 and a previous value revised from 263,000 to 264,000. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remains above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. Gold - On the 18th local time, the US government requested the US Supreme Court to allow President Trump to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte publicly accused Cook in August of declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain more favorable mortgage rates and submitted relevant criminal charges to the Department of Justice [9]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The second re - issuance of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (Phase 4) in 2025 has completed the tendering process. After the issuance, the overall issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds this year has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [10]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently. The weekly soda ash output is 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% weekly decrease. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The national average float glass price is 1,166 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [11][12]. Plastics - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,296 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The weekly LLDPE output is 295,800 tons, a 3.21% weekly increase; the production enterprise inventory is 161,200 tons, a 0.86% weekly decrease. The daily production profit of oil - based LLDPE is - 334 yuan/ton. The average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increases by 1.6% weekly, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural films increases by 2.6% and that of PE packaging films increases by 0.5% [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in nine months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Precious metals may lack further upward momentum in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days due to concerns about supply disruptions from drone attacks on Russian refineries and the possibility of a US central bank rate cut. However, supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. - Pig prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term due to oversupply, with attention needed on the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - Palm oil is expected to be under pressure in the short term due to high inventory at the origin and weak demand, despite a decline in production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand for iron ore remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although steel demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. - The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6]. - Silver prices may be affected by gold fluctuations, and attention should be paid to whether the post - rate - cut market follows the expected trend [6]. - Rubber prices should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude as they are in a situation of low inventory and weak demand [7]. - PTA should be observed as polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply [7]. - Methanol and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades [8][10]. - Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or make short - term trades on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's rate cut is in place, and precious metals may lack short - term upward momentum. Attention should be paid to potential reversal trends [1]. - **Silver**: US construction investment is lower than expected, increasing economic downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. Supply pressure remains, and short - term trading should be cautious [1]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig prices are expected to decline in the short term due to oversupply. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [3]. - **Soybeans**: Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to policies and new grain listing progress [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline in Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 15 provides some support, but overall, it is expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude [7]. Industrial Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand remains strong, and steel mills are expected to replenish stocks in mid - to - late September [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Steel prices are expected to enter a narrow - range adjustment stage. Although demand recovery is slow, macro - friendly policies limit the decline [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: Silicon iron prices may have limited downward space in the short term but are expected to decline in the medium to long term as supply - demand relations tend to be loose [6]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is accumulating slightly, and there is an expectation of increased supply. It is recommended to observe [7]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol is at a high - production level, and port inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades [10]. - **Plastic**: Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long trades on dips [10]. Bonds - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may be negatively affected by economic recovery in the long term but may be positively affected by the Fed rate cut in the short term [6].