今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】Mysteel调研显示，截至2月20日，建材市 场仍未启动，部分重点项目工地预计近两天陆续开工，其余大 部分项目则要等到2月22日后才开始恢复施工。评：综合来看， 预计节后钢价将在钢厂惯性推涨、低库存与成本支撑下迎来短 暂 "开门红"，但需求恢复节奏、钢厂复产进度及库存消化情 况将成为关键变量。后续市场大概率进入震荡调整阶段，行情 持续性依赖需求实际释放强度，短期震荡偏多运行。 【短评-白银】由于一场严重的冬季风暴席卷美国东北部， 导致航班取消和延误，美国国会众议院和参议院均将本周的首 轮投票推迟至2月24日。此次投票推迟正值部分美政府部门"停 摆"之际，美国国土安全部也受到影响。美国总统特朗普将于 24日在国会大厦发表国情咨文。评：节假日期间美股震荡走 低，市场风险偏好有所减弱，白银做多力量小于黄金。关注后 续美联储政策预期，白银跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震 荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月24日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z001 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views - The market may further wait for the clarity of the Fed's monetary policy, and silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [2]. - Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. - The downward space for hog prices is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - Palm oil prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - Soybean meal prices will stabilize and rebound in the short term, and pay attention to position risks before the Spring Festival [6]. - Rubber prices may fluctuate [8]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [8]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern before the Spring Festival [9]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. - The bond market is bullish in the medium term but with weak short - term upward momentum [12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. - Steel prices may first decline and then rise after the Spring Festival [14]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, but the precious metals market had limited fluctuations. Silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations and is expected to consolidate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - **Gold**: There are internal differences in the US on tariff policies, and geopolitical uncertainties still exist. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has weakened, which is negative for gold. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Multiple reports point to an oversupply in the global oil market, and the growth rate of oil demand is lower than expected. Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The hog price is stable and slightly stronger. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export data is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Although the overall inventory of oil mills is high, the supply of available contracts is tightening before the holiday, providing short - term support for the spot price. The price will stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Congo's copper production has increased, but there are uncertainties due to the complex political situation. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. - **Aluminum**: The US tariff barrier has led to a supply shortage, which further strengthens the bottom support of aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory pressure is increasing, and the supply is affected by weather. The market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: The domestic steel market has entered the holiday mode, and the demand has stagnated. The steel price is stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [14]. Chemicals - **PTA**: The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand balance sheet shows inventory accumulation. PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and new production capacity is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. Others - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Monetary easing is the main theme, and the bond market is bullish in the medium term. However, the short - term upward momentum is weak [12].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人， 远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录得 4.3%，创2025年8月以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。 评：非农数据大幅超预期，但是贵金属波动有限，市场或进一 步等待美联储货币政策明朗，但是在沃什正式上任前，各方都 是猜测。白银或跟随黄金被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注 黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1222元/吨，价格暂 稳；纯碱周度产量77.43万吨，环比-1.22%；纯碱厂家总库存 158.11万吨，周上升2.39%；浮法玻璃开工率71.86%，周度持 平；全国浮法玻璃均价1107元/吨，环比上日持平；全国浮法玻 璃样本企业总库存5306.4万重箱，环比+0.95%。评：浮法玻璃 开工较稳，库存上升，华东市场操作偏淡，汽运陆续结束，个 别企业靠船运少量外发，下游多放假，市场成交有限。国内纯 碱市场持稳运行，成交气氛一般，个别企业产量提升，临近假 期，下游需求备货基本告一段落。纯碱供强需弱，新产能投放 压力大，预计短期维持震荡偏弱。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月12日 研究 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The US economy still faces downward pressure, which is bearish for silver, and silver may fluctuate passively following gold, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The domestic methanol market has high开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, but the price may fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment. - The manganese - silicon market remains in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost. - The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The steel price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday. - Fed officials have dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical and US political uncertainties still support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation. - The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility. - The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal. - The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic palm oil price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center. - The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. - Copper production in January exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand. - Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand. - PX supply and demand will weaken during the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, mainly supported by geopolitics, and short - term trading is recommended. - The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - PVC production is stable, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: US retail sales data shows economic downward pressure, which is bearish for silver. It may follow gold and fluctuate, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [1]. - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks dampen interest - rate cut expectations, but geopolitical and political uncertainties support gold in the long - term, with a mid - term high - level consolidation outlook [4]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: US commercial crude inventory increased, and the market is waiting for the second - round negotiation between the US and Iran. Crude oil is in a strong and chaotic accumulation phase, with supply pressure still existing [10]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic methanol开工 rates, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PX**: PX load is expected to run at a high level in February, but supply - demand will weaken during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing rapidly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with high inventory and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall. The demand side has support, and the price may fluctuate widely [3]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon market has loose supply and demand, with high upstream inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around the cost [3]. - **Steel**: The domestic steel market is in the holiday mode, with stagnant downstream demand. The price is expected to be stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [4]. - **Copper**: January copper production exceeded expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of post - holiday demand [7]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to weak demand [7]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The January palm oil report is slightly bullish, but the price increase is limited. The domestic price is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with a rising price center [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level and demand is weak, but the price is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is still falling, but the downward space is limited, and the far - month contracts are expected to bottom out and wait for a cycle reversal [5]. - **Natural Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is tightening, but demand is weak during the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The fourth - quarter monetary policy report is positive for long - term bonds, and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward, but with strong short - term volatility [5].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铝】2月5日，位于内蒙古的达拉特-蒙西1000千伏 交流输变电工程获国家发改委核准。该工程是蒙西-京津冀特高 压直流工程的配套项目，投资43.74亿元，旨在强化区域电网结 构。评：项目正式开工后，将带来可观的铝材消耗，印证了以 电网升级、光伏及储能为代表的新能源领域，是铝消费增长最 确定的结构性引擎。目前新能源长期需求故事坚实，但当下受 限于传统消费淡季，下游加工企业备货基本结束，市场交投清 淡。节前预计铝价维持震荡格局，等待节后需求复苏。 【短评-原油】俄罗斯1月原油产量连续第二个月下降，平 均日产量降至928万桶（不含凝析油），较12月减少4.6万桶/ 日，且低于其在欧佩克+协议中允许的产量近30万桶/日； 据新 华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道说，伊朗外长阿拉格齐 表示，伊朗在伊美谈判中有两条"红线"：伊朗不会放弃铀浓 缩，也不会就本国导弹事宜进行谈判；另有报道说,当地时间2 月9日，美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商船发布最新指南，该机构 建议"悬挂美国国旗的商船尽可能远离伊朗领海，并在被伊朗 军队要求登船时口头拒绝——如果伊朗军队登船，船员不应强 行抵抗"。评：美国加大 ...

纯碱：厂家库存高位上升，震荡偏弱 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 期货研究报告 2026年2月9日 周报 1、市场回顾与展望：国内纯碱市场走势淡稳，节前企业积极发货，需求放缓。隆众资讯数据监测， 上周国内纯碱产量77.43万吨，环比下降0.88万吨，跌幅1.12%。纯碱综合产能利用率83.25%，环比下降 0.94%，个别企业设备检修，开工有所下降。周内国内纯碱厂家总库存158.11万吨，周增加3.69万吨，涨幅 2.39%，行业库存呈现增加，个别企业出货放缓，库存累计，大部分企业产销目前维持。纯碱企业待发订单 增加，维持12+天，增加2+天。 展望：当前纯碱企业利润不佳，本周国内纯碱开工预期高位较稳，纯碱下游需求预计近期较稳。下游 浮法玻璃预期本周产量较稳,西南一条产线存在放水计划；光伏产品自4月1日起，取消增值税出口退税，光 伏玻璃下游拿货量加大，供给本周预计大致稳定，行业仍存降库预期。纯碱供需宽松背景下，预期近期纯 碱企业库存仍维持高位运行，新产能投放施压，后期重点关注纯碱开工变化。预计纯碱价格近期震荡偏弱， 05合约上方压力1220一线 ...

2026年02月09日 周报 期货研究报告 贵金属期货：中期宽幅震荡 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：伊朗与美国在阿曼举行的核谈判结束，双方就继续对话达成共识。双方在阐明各自 立场和诉求的同时，同意在与各自政府进行磋商后，就下一轮对话作出决定。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐称， 本轮美伊磋商是"良好开端"。美联储主席落地，市场对新联储主席的交易暂告一段落。美国2月密歇根 大学消费者信心指数初值录得57.3，创六个月来最高水平。与此同时，1年期通胀预期降至3.5%，为一年 来的最低水平。美联储褐皮书显示，在12个联邦储备区中，有8个地区的整体经济活动以轻微至温和的速 度增长，3个地区报告没有变化，1个地区报告温和下降。这比过去三个报告周期有所改善，此前大多数地 区报告经济活动变化不大。美国经济韧性依然比较强，这给美国对外地缘干预提供了更多支撑，近期避险 因素有所减弱，使得贵金属做多热情有所减弱，贵金属中期或陷入高位震荡局面。 关注因素：1.中东地区地缘风险演化 2.美联储高层更迭 3.美国经济数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货 ...

期货研究报告 2026年02月09日 棕榈油期货：回调企稳，节前谨慎参与 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：2026年2月2日—2月8日棕榈油期现共振下行，P2605周跌2.32%收8996元/吨，现 货均价周跌2.4%至9020元/吨，核心由原油大跌、宏观情绪转弱引发，叠加春节备货尾声需求走弱，内外盘 联动回调，基差走强。 盘面节奏：节奏与驱动：2月2日随原油大跌，期现同步下探；2月3—4日马棕出口数据向好，价格短暂 反弹；2月5—8日宏观情绪转弱，需求走弱，期现共振下行，P2605跌破9000元/吨。 展望：马棕1月产量降14.03%、出口增14.89%，去库预期强化，但春节备货尾声，国内需求走弱，近端 供需承压。港口库存小幅累积，进口利润倒挂，现货供应偏紧，基差走强，近月压力大于远月，月差扩大。 MPOB月报公布前后波动加大，原油企稳则价格反弹，需求疲软则回调，P2605在8900—9100元/吨波动。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： | | | | 棕 ...

期货研究报告 1、市场回顾与展望：本周焦煤、焦炭市场冲高回落运行。焦企经过首轮涨价利润修复，整体开工平稳。 区域内煤矿生产整体稳定，随着春节临近，部分煤矿陆续开始停产放假，产量有所收缩，而下游焦企冬储补 库基本结束，采购积极性转弱；下游方面，由于钢厂利润情况不佳，且下游工地陆续停工，钢材成交量明显 缩减，市场供需压力增大，铁水复产进度缓慢。 展望：国内煤矿临近假期产量将逐渐下滑，进口煤预计同样受春节影响而保持回落，反观其需求端仍有 支撑，预计基本面将保持健康，盘面受资金情绪影响预计宽幅震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2399.35 | 2335.53 | 63.82 | 2.73% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 976.22 | 960.65 | 15.57 | 1.62% | 周度 | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 228 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, driven by precious metals, the non - ferrous metals sector experienced a panic - driven sharp decline. On February 2nd, Shanghai copper hit the daily limit down, with a decline of about 9%. The nomination of the new Fed chair led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's credit and significant fluctuations in market sentiment. There are differences in the path of further interest rate cuts, and the market has entered a wait - and - see phase, increasing the volatility of asset prices [2]. - Although copper mine strikes in places like Chile have temporarily subsided, it confirms the fragility of mine production. The long - term structural supply shortage provides a solid bottom support for copper prices. In the short term, affected by the seasonal off - season, downstream production has stopped for holidays, and spot trading has stagnated. However, in the long run, the new energy transformation and AI infrastructure construction offer potential, and China's non - ferrous metals industry association's plan to improve the copper resource reserve system proves copper's strategic importance [2]. - The panic - driven sharp decline in copper prices this week was mainly due to profit - taking by long positions after the previous extreme increase and liquidity踩踏. Subsequently, the market entered a volatile repair phase with high volatility. With unclear macro - level guidance, pressure from the off - season on the demand side, and supply - side support, copper prices are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The non - ferrous metals sector had a panic - driven sharp decline last week, with Shanghai copper hitting the daily limit down on February 2nd. The new Fed chair's nomination led to market sentiment fluctuations and a wait - and - see attitude. The supply side has long - term structural support, while the demand side is affected by the off - season in the short term. Copper prices are expected to be volatile before the holiday [2]. 3.2 Factors to Watch - The report mentions that the latest US economic data and downstream demand recovery are factors to watch. It also provides weekly data on various copper - related indicators, such as the electrolytic copper price in Shanghai decreased by 4.58% week - on - week, the electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai increased by 117.86% week - on - week, and the LME copper inventory increased by 4.74% week - on - week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Futures Market Review**: The report includes graphs of the Shanghai copper price trend, London copper price trend, and the Shanghai - London copper ratio (without excluding exchange rates) [5][6][8]. - **Supply Situation Analysis**: It presents graphs related to copper concentrate forward spot prices, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, etc. [13]. - **Demand Situation Analysis**: Graphs about 1 electrolytic copper premium in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization, and refined copper rod trading volume are provided [15][17]. - **Inventory Situation Analysis**: Graphs of electrolytic copper spot inventory and the inventory of three major futures exchanges are included [22].