Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - Last week, the average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil ranged between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. Despite the import cost rising and then falling during the week, the price linkage of competing oils like soybean oil and concerns about rapeseed oil supply provided bottom - line support for the sector, preventing a unilateral decline [1]. - Globally, the abundant supply is the core negative factor. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach a historic high, exceeding 20 million tons for the first time, and Indonesia's production from January to September increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are maintained in the range of 1.2 - 1.25 million tons. Although the import volume is increasing, downstream提货 is stable, and the short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - The demand shows "structural improvement". The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is continuously repairing, and the high price of rapeseed oil due to supply shortage concerns boosts the sentiment of the entire oil sector, providing bottom - line support for palm oil. However, negative factors are also prominent, such as India's imports dropping to a five - year low and the weakening of crude oil prices suppressing the demand for palm oil in the biodiesel field, with no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - In the short term, palm oil futures will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The average spot price of 24 - degree palm oil last week was in the range of 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The price linkage of competing oils and concerns about rapeseed oil supply supported the market, preventing a one - sided decline [1]. - Globally, supply is abundant. Malaysia's production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and Indonesia's January - September production increased by 11% year - on - year. In China, port inventories are stable, and short - term supply and demand are balanced [1]. - Demand has "structural improvement" but also faces negative factors. The price difference between palm oil and soybean oil is repairing, and rapeseed oil prices boost the sector. However, India's low imports and weak crude oil prices suppress demand, and there is no seasonal increase in terminal consumption [1]. - Short - term palm oil futures will fluctuate at a low level, and range trading is advised [1]. Factors to Watch - November palm oil production and export data in Malaysia, the repair of the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, and India's import policies [2] Palm Oil Ship - date Quotation and Import Profit Calculation - For the December 24 - degree palm oil ship - date in South China, the CNF is 1,030, the forward exchange rate is 7.0807, the import cost is 8,745 yuan/ton, the disk price is 8,364 yuan/ton, and the profit against the disk is - 111 yuan/ton [3] This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The disk price is the price of the main palm oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange from 11:00 - 11:30. The import cost does not include processing fees and is the gross profit against the disk. The profit against the disk = disk price - import cost. The forward exchange rate is the real - time exchange rate of foreign exchange futures on the Singapore Exchange. The import cost = import CIF price * exchange rate * tariff * VAT + port charges [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]

PTA期货：短期供需有所改善 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面呈现4550-4800区间震荡，供需偏好格局成为能化板块多配；价格震 荡上行，持仓量先降后升，基差持续负值，市场情绪偏谨慎。 2、近期芳烃调油逻辑再次强化，汽油裂解价差持续走强，芳烃环节MX和甲苯需求增长，甲苯调油-歧化 经济性维持高位，对PX支撑偏强。11月PTA供应端有较多检修计划公布，下游聚酯需求11月预计高位维持， 下游聚酯低库存低利润，聚酯和涤纶长丝开工率偏高，阶段性对PTA需求有支撑。PTA供需边际有较大好转， 加工费得到阶段性修复。整体上，PX调油需求叠加PTA供需结构阶段性相对较好，短期对PTA价格有支撑。风 险点：原油下跌。 关注因素：1.聚酯开工率；2.PTA检修；3.织机开工率；4、PX调整需求；5、原油走势。 | PTA | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 生猪期货：震荡偏弱，空头主导 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪现货价呈"企稳 - 回落 - 收窄 - 反弹"的震荡偏弱走势，整体重心 下移，均价从11.97/公斤逐步波动调整，虽周末出现小幅反弹，但未能改变全周偏弱的整体格局，且同比仍 处于大幅下跌区间。国家统计局及期货机构数据显示，11月上旬生猪（外三元）价格环比下降1.7%，全周现 货均价围绕11.7-12.0元/公斤区间波动，年末供应压力与季节性需求预期的矛盾成为市场核心矛盾点。 供应端方面，进入下旬后养殖场出栏积极性普遍较高，尤其集团场受进度偏慢影响存在一定追赶计划， 加之部分压栏大猪逐步流入市场，带动出栏均重整体上移，市场猪肉供应呈现充足态势。需求端方面，屠 宰企业因利润空间有限暂无主动入库意愿，加之下游市场产品消化速度依然缓慢，因此屠宰量波动有限。 随着气温下降，南方地区腌腊需求将小幅启动，对消费形成一定支撑，但提振力度预计有限，难以完全对 冲供应压力，市场短期仍以偏弱震荡为主。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals, with potential for mid - term high - level oscillations [1] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The rebar futures market is expected to oscillate in a wide range at a low level [4] - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [6] - The LH2601 contract for live pigs may decline in the short term and oscillate at the bottom [7] - The soybean meal 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - The palm oil price will oscillate at a low level [8] - The long - term treasury bond market will oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [8] - Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term [9] - The crude oil price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] Summary by Product Precious Metals - **Gold**: On November 17, Fed officials had different views on a December interest - rate cut. The market probability of a December rate cut dropped below 50%, putting pressure on precious metals. Mid - term high - level oscillations are possible. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1] - **Silver**: Although there are rumors about Trump's tariff rebate, the change in the Fed's December interest - rate cut is still uncertain, pressuring precious metals. Silver is under short - term pressure but bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the divergence between gold and silver [9] Agricultural Products - **Rubber**: Thai raw rubber prices are 56.6 Thai baht/kg. Hainan's glue - to - whole - milk price is 16,100 yuan/ton. Due to cold weather in Yunnan and the rainy season in southern Thailand, raw material prices may remain high. However, with expected increases in overseas ship arrivals, insufficient terminal demand, and expected declines in downstream enterprise开工, natural rubber is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - **Soybean Meal**: Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil refinery operating rates are slowly rising, and crushing volumes are high. Demand is relatively stable, and soybean meal inventory is increasing, limiting price increases. The domestic breeding industry is weak, which may limit demand growth. The 01 contract will oscillate in a range with a rising price center [7] - **Palm Oil**: From November 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.5%. Foreign quotes are low, and the price - performance ratio has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will oscillate at a low level [8] - **Live Pigs**: As of November 17, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter is 123.53 kg. The weekly slaughter rate is 33.61%. Farmers want to raise prices, but terminal demand is insufficient, and slaughterhouses are not enthusiastic about purchasing. The price is under pressure. The LH2601 contract has short - term downward pressure and will oscillate at the bottom [7] Industrial Metals - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.81%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.8%. Steel mills' profitability is declining, and production is decreasing. Demand is also falling due to the off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is decreasing. There may be policy benefits in December, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [4] - **Iron Ore**: The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 9,076.01 tons, and the daily consumption is 292.63 tons. The impact of the hurricane has ended, and the shipping end is stable. Demand may decline seasonally. Inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5] - **Coking Coal**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 71.64%. Supply is still tight in China. Coke production is declining, and downstream procurement has slowed down. The futures market is under pressure, but the fundamentals still provide support, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of November 14, the number of US online drilling oil wells increased by 3 compared to the previous week. The attack on a Russian oil storage facility has raised supply concerns. However, the overall supply is excessive, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **Asphalt**: The weekly output is 51.4 tons, and the inventory is decreasing. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream purchasing is cautious. Refinery profits have been boosted, suppressing the asphalt price, which is expected to oscillate weakly [10] - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu is 2,047 yuan/ton. The domestic operating rate is high, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - **Soda Ash**: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,263 yuan/ton. Production is slightly decreasing, and inventory is relatively stable. The glass industry's operating rate is slightly decreasing. The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12] - **PVC**: The price of SG - 5 type in East China is 4,520 yuan/ton. Production is expected to remain high, but profits are poor. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign trade growth is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has internal differences regarding a potential December interest rate cut. The end of the US government shutdown has led to simultaneous declines in US stocks, bonds, and the exchange - rate, increasing market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium term [1]. - The natural rubber market is currently in a state of mixed long and short factors. Prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations due to factors such as supply disruptions and inventory pressure [2]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation in the short term, with attention on raw material cost adjustments [4]. - The coking coal market is in a stalemate between long and short forces. The main contract has seen a pullback at the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, and future supply conditions should be closely monitored [5]. - The steel market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand. Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term, with limited upside and downside potential [6]. - The live hog market's LH2601 contract still faces downward pressure in the short term, with bottom - end oscillations and range - bound trading [6]. - The soybean meal 01 contract is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation between 3030 - 3090 in the short term [7]. - The palm oil market has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. - The long - term treasury bond market is expected to have a slightly bullish medium - term oscillation, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The silver market is short - term bearish but bullish in the medium term, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. - The crude oil market is expected to operate in a weak oscillation, with supply - surplus concerns being the core factor determining price direction [10]. - The PTA market is expected to be range - bound, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for further stabilization [12]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [13]. - The L2601 contract of plastic is expected to have a short - term oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - The Fed has internal differences on a December rate cut. The end of the government shutdown has increased market divergence. Gold is short - term bullish and medium - term high - level oscillating. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [1]. Natural Rubber - Thai raw rubber prices are stable, and domestic inventories show different trends. The domestic production area is entering a reduction period, and overseas rainfall has affected supply. However, high inventory and a large price difference with synthetic rubber restrict price increases. Short - term price range - bound oscillations are expected [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national capacity utilization rate and daily output of manganese silicon have increased slightly. Cost is in a stalemate, demand support is weakening, and supply is expected to remain high. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate around the low - end of cost valuation [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate and production of coking coal mines have increased. The market is in a long - short stalemate due to supply - side support and energy supply concerns. The main contract has pulled back, and actual supply should be monitored [5]. Rebar - This week, rebar production, inventory, and demand have all decreased. The steel market has weak supply and demand, with a larger inventory decline and cost support. Short - term narrow - range oscillations are expected [6]. Live Hogs - The national live hog price has continued to decline. Weak terminal demand, low slaughterhouse acquisition enthusiasm, and high breeding - end sales pressure have led to downward pressure on the LH2601 contract [6]. Soybean Meal - Imported soybean supply is sufficient, oil - mill开机率 is rising, and demand is stable. Inventory is increasing, restricting price increases. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term [7]. Palm Oil - Indian palm oil imports have decreased significantly in October due to high inventory. The domestic market is in an adjustment phase with limited supply - demand contradictions and is mainly for range - bound trading [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The growth of social financing in October has slowed, and the marginal effect of monetary policy easing has weakened. Macro - control may shift to promoting consumption. The bond market is slightly bullish in the medium term, with attention on the stock - bond seesaw [9]. Silver - The end of the US government shutdown has reduced risk appetite. Silver is short - term bearish and medium - term bullish, with attention on the divergence between gold and silver [9]. Crude Oil - The IEA has further raised the supply - surplus pressure forecast. The market is concerned about supply surplus, and prices are expected to operate in a weak oscillation [10]. PTA - PTA production has decreased, polyester inventory has decreased, and demand is fair. With crude oil oscillating weakly, PTA is expected to be range - bound, and waiting and seeing is advisable [12]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation, and waiting for further stabilization is recommended [12]. Soda Ash - The price of soda ash has risen slightly, production has decreased, and inventory has changed slightly. The glass market has weak demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. Plastic - The price of LLDPE has increased slightly, production has increased, and inventory has risen. Downstream demand is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - selling on rebounds is recommended [14].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The "tariff refund" plan is expected to greatly stimulate US consumption and the economy, which is positive for silver. The upward trend of Shanghai silver is further established, and it is recommended to pay attention to the possible divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1]. - The domestic rubber production area is entering the reduction period, and overseas production areas are affected by rain. The raw material prices are firm, but the demand side lacks substantial benefits. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is large, restricting the increase of natural rubber prices. It is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [2]. - The cost of ferrosilicon is rising, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose. The price upward drive is insufficient, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [4]. - The demand for steel in the off - season is weak, and the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, but the inventory pressure is not large. The short - term steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - The supply and demand of coking coal are both weak, and the decline in hot metal production suppresses real consumption. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, and short - term range operation is recommended [5]. - The demand for terminal pork products is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds demand. The short - term LH2601 contract is under downward pressure and will oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The domestic palm oil market is in an adjustment stage, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Range trading is recommended [6]. - The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is slowly rising, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly in the range of 3030 - 3090 [8]. - The capital market is continuously loose, which is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. - The dovish may gradually dominate the Fed, and the US dollar index is lackluster. Gold is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. - OPEC estimates that the global oil market has shifted from a deficit to a surplus, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [10]. - The polyester inventory is decreasing, the PTA rigid demand is okay, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November is relieved. PTA is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Silver - The "tariff refund" plan proposed by Trump may cost up to $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $30 billion. This plan is expected to boost US consumption and the economy, which is positive for silver [1]. Rubber - In the first 10 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 13.8% year - on - year, and in October, exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year but decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. Malaysia's natural rubber production in Q3 2025 decreased by 11.3% year - on - year. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and overseas production areas are affected by rain, but the demand side lacks substantial benefits [2]. Ferrosilicon - The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 35.48%, a decrease of 0.46% from last week; the daily average output is 16,115 tons, a decrease of 2.62% from last week. The cost is rising, but the oversupply situation makes it difficult to increase the price [4]. Rebar - On November 12, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,232 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is not large [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 37.4%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous period; the daily output of clean coal is 274,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.008 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous period. The supply recovery is slow, and the real demand is declining [5]. Live Pigs - On November 12, the average price of pork in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 17.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous day. The demand for terminal products is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds demand [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 decreased by 49.53% compared with the same period last month [6]. Soybean Meal - The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 244,900 tons, a decrease of 69,200 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2.31% to 59.12%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the demand is relatively stable [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties all declined. Overnight varieties dropped 9.3BP to 1.415%, 7 - day varieties dropped 2.7BP to 1.474%, 14 - day varieties dropped 1.8BP to 1.5%, and 1 - month varieties dropped 0.2BP to 1.523%. The capital market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds [8]. Gold - A dovish candidate may be nominated to replace Powell as the Fed chairman and hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut in December. The US dollar index is lackluster, which is positive for gold [9]. Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. The OECD commercial inventory increased by 60 million barrels in September 2025. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in October. OPEC estimates that the global oil market has shifted from a deficit to a surplus [10]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days. The polyester load operation rebounds unexpectedly, and the PTA rigid demand is okay. The PTA operating rate decreases, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November is relieved [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic downward pressure in the US is increasing, raising the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are still internal differences within the Fed. Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. - Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the international oil price has risen for three consecutive days. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner [1]. - The US government shutdown is about to end, risk appetite has increased. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. - The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. - The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. - The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. - The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner due to weak supply - demand drivers [10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - According to ADP statistics, from October 1 - 25, the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total loss of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023. The US economic downward pressure increases the probability of an interest - rate cut in December, but there are internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar index has weak upward momentum, and gold is volatile and bullish in the short - term and may experience high - level oscillations in the medium - term [1]. Crude Oil - A Reuters survey of five analysts shows that as of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by about 1.2 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 6 million barrels; US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, with an estimated range of a decrease of 1.2 - 4 million barrels. Investors are evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russia, and the expectation of the end of the US government shutdown has led to three consecutive days of oil price increases. However, concerns about oversupply in the oil market limit price increases, and oil prices are expected to run in a volatile manner. The OPEC and IEA November "Oil Market Monthly Reports" will be released on November 12 and 13 respectively [1]. Silver - The US Senate passed the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government shutdown. The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the shutdown, and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the Senate - passed temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday. The end of the government shutdown has increased risk appetite. Silver has broken out of the narrow - range oscillation range, with short - term correction pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there is a divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold [3]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that in the next step, a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, while continuing to improve the monetary policy framework and strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. The monetary policy remains in a loose orientation, which supports the bond market in the long - term. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are both positive for the bond market. However, due to factors such as liquidity easing, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult, and it is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [3]. Hog - According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.57, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.67, up 0.01 point from the previous day. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.11 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from the previous day. The national hog price adjusted weakly and steadily. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter progress was a bit slow and still under pressure, while the slaughter of large - weight hogs by small farmers increased, and the terminal demand was insufficient. The supply exceeded the demand, and the price mainly adjusted weakly. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short - term and will oscillate at the bottom. The breeding side can hedge in a timely manner according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. Soybean Meal - According to Mysteel statistics, on the previous trading day, the total sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 314,100 tons, an increase of 120,500 tons from the previous trading day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 125,100 tons, an increase of 39,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the far - month basis sales volume was 189,000 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 53.51%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous day. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills is slowly recovering, and the crushing volume is at a relatively high level, while the demand is relatively stable. The increase in soybean meal inventory limits the upward space of spot prices. The purchasing sentiment of downstream feed enterprises is average, and they mainly replenish inventory based on existing inventory levels. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in a narrow range between 3030 - 3090 in the short - term [4]. Palm Oil - The SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10, 2025 decreased compared to the same period last month. The implementation of Canada's clean - fuel regulations and local government blending policies has led to a rise in rapeseed oil prices, driving up palm oil prices. Domestically, the basis prices in various regions, especially in South China, have increased rapidly, and the market trading is light, mainly fulfilling previous contracts. Palm oil prices are expected to have room for further increase, and short - term long positions can be considered [5]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 88,800 tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous week. The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2060 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The domestic weekly methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to resume operation this week. The total downstream production capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.5171 million tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous week. The domestic methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 2120 level, and it is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization [7]. Short - fiber - The production of Chinese polyester short - fiber this cycle was 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5200 tons, with a growth rate of 3.21%. The average comprehensive production capacity utilization rate during this cycle was 88.37%, a week - on - week increase of 2.74%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester short - fiber factories on the previous trading day was 41.96%, a decrease of 28.51% from the previous trading day. Supply has increased while demand has remained flat, with a slight inventory build - up this week. After the sales - to - production ratio reached a high, it declined, but the overall inventory pressure is not large. The short - term short - fiber is expected to fluctuate following the cost side and run in a volatile manner [7]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC production capacity utilization rate was 80.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.49%. The PVC social inventory was 1.0352 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 769 yuan/ton, and the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 465 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 39.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the upper pressure at the 4625 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash was 1264 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable. The weekly production of soda ash was 746,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The national average price of float glass was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%. The domestic soda ash market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term, with the lower support at the 1205 level for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on corrections [9]. Synthetic Rubber - As of November 11, the price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 6975 yuan/ton, and the price of cis - polybutadiene rubber of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton. As of November 11, the weekly average profit of the C4 extraction process was 237 yuan/ton. Based on the butadiene price, the static cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber was estimated to be 8500 yuan/ton. On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. The raw material side is still under pressure from large domestic supply. On the demand side, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are less than expected. Some enterprises plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. There is a lack of substantial positive factors. The synthetic rubber market is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner [10][11].

【短评-黄金】美联储理事米兰表示，为防止未来美国经济 走弱，他支持进一步降息。米兰坚持认为，应当比传统每次25 个基点的降息节奏更快。旧金山联储主席戴利最新表示，美国 经济可能正在经历需求下滑，但关税相关通胀目前看来得到控 制。评：美国政府停摆有望在本周结束，美联储官员对降息持 开放态度，但美联储内部分歧依然存在。美元指数上涨乏力， 贵金属短期震荡偏多，中期或高位震荡。 投资咨询中心 2025年11月11日 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】11月03日-11月09日中国47港铁矿石到港 总量2769.3万吨，环比减少544.8万吨；中国45港铁矿石到港总 量2741.2万吨，环比减少477.2万吨；北方六港铁矿石到港总量 1525.8万吨，环比减少60.1万吨（Mysteel）评：综合来看，铁 矿发运仍处于历史同期高位，铁水产量延续下滑趋势，钢厂盈 利率再度收缩，铁矿石需求继续走弱，港口库存压力继续累 积，供强需弱，预计矿价偏弱运行。操作上建议铁矿2601合约 逢高沽空。 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in Busan, the contradiction in the Sino-US trade field has been paused, and the economic risk aversion sentiment has slightly eased. The mid-term trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [2][9][26] - The US government is still in a shutdown, making it difficult to obtain the latest economic data. The Fed's disagreement on a December interest rate cut has increased, adding uncertainty to the future interest rate cut rhythm and bringing volatility factors to the precious metal market [3][14] - The offshore RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. Although the RMB has recently faced increased depreciation pressure, the trend of moderate appreciation remains unchanged. Currently, the exchange rate issue has not had a significant impact on the gold market [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, trade negotiations have slightly eased, and risk aversion sentiment has weakened. The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Gold and silver may rise again under the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts, but whether their trends will diverge needs continuous attention [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US government shutdown has a greater-than-expected impact on the US economy, causing long-term damage to the government's efficient operation and slowing down Q4 GDP growth. The tourism and leisure industry is being hit hard [12] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of multiple export control measures from now until November 10, 2026, and the resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US enterprises and the import of US logs starting from November 10 [12] - Some Fed officials are worried about further interest rate cuts due to high inflation levels and the lack of key price data caused by the government shutdown [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - Due to the US government shutdown, it is difficult to track the US economy. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded from September and were better than expected. The market has fully priced in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed for the rest of the year [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese and US leaders held a meeting, and both sides reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and China urged the EU to stop this action [18] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded and were better than expected. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. Crude oil prices rebounded, and copper prices rose due to supply shortages and Fed interest rate cut expectations [19] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. The long-term weakening trend of the US dollar supports precious metals. The RMB is in a slow appreciation trend, and its impact on the gold market is limited [23] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the Sino-US trade conflict has been paused, and risk aversion sentiment has eased. After COMEX gold reached a high of 4398, precious metals have corrected significantly. In the mid-term, the trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [26]