Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for various commodities and financial products shows different trends due to a combination of supply - demand factors, policy expectations, and macro - economic conditions. Some products are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others face downward pressure or uncertainty [1][2][4][5][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, causing concerns about demand slowdown and supply increase, leading to a weak and volatile market. High - level short - selling operations are recommended [4]. - **PTA**: With average device maintenance, expected new production, strong downstream polyester factory reduction expectations in July, and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force is also weak [4]. - **Rubber**: Weather disturbances in production areas keep raw material prices firm, and the demand side is improving. However, due to difficult inventory reduction, there is still upward pressure on prices in the short - term. A cautious short - long approach is recommended [5]. **Metals** - **Silver**: The conflict between the Trump administration and the Fed over interest rate cuts creates uncertainty. The decline of the US dollar index drives gold up, and silver follows. A bullish outlook is maintained before the end - of - July interest rate meeting [8]. - **Gold**: US trade negotiations with other countries increase global economic downward pressure and volatility in tariffs, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The decline of the US dollar index is beneficial to gold. Attention should be paid to the US dollar - gold seesaw effect [8]. **Industrial Goods** - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to increase, and downstream replenishment is active. With the fermentation of anti - involution policy expectations, the short - term futures market is strong. The reference support level for the 2509 contract is 980 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for silicon iron is resilient. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. **Agricultural Products** - Not covered in the provided content. **Financial Products** - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The capital market becomes more liquid, and short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which is beneficial to short - term bonds. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Policy support for infrastructure construction is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which is negative for the bond market. The main logic of the bond market is the stock - bond seesaw [6].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are diverse. For example, coke and steel prices may be strong in the short - term, while asphalt may be weak, and some commodities like PX and iron ore are expected to be in a high - level oscillation state. For financial products, the bond market is affected by multiple factors such as infrastructure investment and the stock - bond seesaw effect, and precious metals like gold are influenced by tariff and trade factors [2][3][5]. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Coke**: On July 21, the market price was strong. Mainstream market coke prices planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton from July 22. With smooth shipments, low inventories at coke enterprises, rising coking coal prices, and high iron - water production at steel mills, coke is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. - **Steel (Thread Steel)**: On July 21, domestic steel prices rose significantly. With improved steel mill benefits, increased blast - furnace iron - water production, and rising coking coal prices, but considering coal production resumption and weak downstream demand in the off - season, steel prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are rising, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level, and port inventories may decline slightly. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - **Silver**: There is a struggle between the Fed and the White House over interest rate cuts. With the dollar index falling, silver follows gold and is expected to be bullish before the end - of - July interest - rate meeting [10]. - **Gold**: Due to tariff fluctuations, possible EU - US trade frictions, and a falling dollar index, gold prices are rising. Attention should be paid to the dollar - gold seesaw effect [12]. - **Alkali (Soda Ash)**: The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward oscillation. With increased production and inventory, stable float - glass production, and falling glass inventory, the soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with an upper pressure at 1330 [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Iran will hold nuclear negotiations, and the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. The impact on supply is expected to be small. Oil prices are in a multi - empty stalemate, with OPEC+ maintaining an increase in production but limited actual supply growth. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: Domestic asphalt production has increased, with inventory rising and demand weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Methanol**: With stable coal prices, expected high - level increase in domestic methanol production, weak downstream demand, and possible port inventory accumulation, the methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 2390 [12]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On July 21, the pork price rose. With some areas' price support and increasing second - fattening, but weak terminal demand, short - term prices will oscillate. Short - term long trading is recommended, and farmers can choose to hedge [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of major oils has increased. With the digestion of positive news and weak demand, palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [7][8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal has increased. With sufficient downstream inventory, prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8]. Chemicals - **PX**: The supply of PX has changed slightly, with weak demand support and limited oil - price support. It is expected to oscillate, with some pressure on spot prices but cost - side support [6]. - **Polypropylene**: With falling production, sufficient supply, and stable inventory, under policy support, the PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 7070 [10]. Bonds - **Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Infrastructure investment increases economic expectations, which is negative for the bond market. Whether the ten - year Treasury bond can break through the high - level oscillation range needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July and the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the central bank's net investment, the tight money situation has improved. Short - term bond prices are expected to rise more strongly than long - term bonds, but the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Commodities**: Different commodities show various trends. Some are expected to be bullish (e.g., short - term coal, iron ore), some bearish or lack upward momentum (e.g., plastic), and others are expected to oscillate (e.g., crude oil, glass, methanol) [1][2][4][5][6][10][11] - **Livestock**: The short - term pig price is expected to be slightly stronger, and short - term long trading is recommended [8] - **Agricultural Products**: For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] - **Bonds**: The long - term bond market is facing a critical choice, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum [12] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] 3. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The EU approved sanctions on Russia, and the US drilling rig count decreased. OPEC+ maintains an increase stance, but actual supply growth is limited. Short - term observation is recommended [6] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the price may be supported by the peak power generation season in the Middle East, showing a tight supply - demand balance. An oscillation strategy is recommended [8] Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, port arrivals increased, and steel mill profitability and molten iron production increased. The price is expected to be strong in oscillations [5] - **Steel**: The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by policies, the short - term market is expected to be strong in oscillations [4] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, there is uncertainty. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] Chemicals - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to increase, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides some support. The L09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase, and demand is expected to be weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - **PTA (Bottle Chip)**: Supply is decreasing, but downstream inventory - building willingness is low. An oscillation strategy is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of float glass enterprises is stable, terminal demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The glass 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed exports increased, but its addition ratio in feed is low. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9] - **Palm Oil**: Indonesian palm oil production is expected to decrease, and it is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] Livestock - **Pig**: Pig prices rose slightly on weekends. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long trading is recommended. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [8] Bonds - **Long - term Bonds**: Bank - to - bank regulation is strengthening, and there are uncertainties in the long - term bond market. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [12] - **Short - term Bonds**: The short - term interest rate is expected to decline, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the direction choice near the 60 - day moving average [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, trading suggestions, and factors influencing supply and demand. [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Currently in a multi - empty stalemate. OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance in the medium term, and there may be a supply surplus after the summer demand peak. Short - term: wait and see. [2] - **PTA**: PTA's operating rate has increased slightly, polyester inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has dragged down the spot price. With crude oil oscillating, short - term: wait and see. [9] - **Methanol**: The cost of coal is expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be weak. The port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2370. Suggestion: wait and see. [9] Metals - **Iron Ore**: The recent anti - involution policy has boosted the black market sentiment, and the supply of steel is expected to shrink. The fundamentals of iron ore have not shown obvious signs of weakening in the off - season. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Suggestion: buy on dips. [4] - **Steel Rebar**: In the short term, the rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly accumulating but still at a low level. The market has insufficient contradictions and driving forces. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate. [5] - **Silver**: The growth of US retail sales and the decrease in initial jobless claims indicate strong economic resilience in the US. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on precious metals. [14] - **Gold**: Although US economic data is strong, the US dollar has limited upward momentum. If the US dollar falls, gold may rebound, but the medium - term view is wide - range oscillation. [15] Agricultural Products - **Coke**: Coking coal prices continue to rise, and there is a strong expectation of a second price increase. Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [2] - **Pig**: Yesterday, the national pig price continued to decline, with a temporary oversupply situation. However, there is strong macro - bullish sentiment. Suggestion: trade within a range. [6] - **Palm Oil**: Supported by import costs, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the proportion of rapeseed meal in feed formulations is low. Suggestion: buy on dips. [7] Others - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: Second - quarter economic data exceeded expectations, and foreign institutions raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, which is bearish for the bond market. However, the recent stock market correction is bullish for bonds. The bond market is at a critical juncture near the 60 - day moving average. [12] - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: The decline in money market interest rates is bullish for short - term bonds. The upward momentum of short - term bonds may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [14] - **Rubber**: There are still weather disturbances on the supply side, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has rebounded on the demand side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate strongly, but the demand has not significantly improved. [15] - **Polypropylene**: The supply is still abundant, and the commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The demand side has weak purchasing enthusiasm. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 7055. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [11] - **Soda Ash**: The float glass market has stable production and decreasing inventory, but the demand support is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1250. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US economic outlook is dim, and the upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is expected to have a slightly bullish mid - term wide - range oscillation. [2] - Crude oil is in a multi - empty stalemate stage. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply situation. With OPEC+ maintaining an increasing production stance, crude oil has an expected supply increase, and it is bearish at high levels. [2] - Steel prices may have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term due to weakened downstream construction demand and cost support. [4] - Coal prices are likely to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, but the increase rate will slow down. [4] - Manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, with limited cost support and increasing difficulty in destocking in the future. [5] - Pig prices are expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, and interval trading is recommended. [6] - Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long when it retraces. [7] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and waiting and seeing or interval trading is recommended. [9] - It is recommended to go long on rapeseed meal at low prices, and pay attention to relevant policy and market changes. [10] - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended. [11] - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - term long when it retraces is recommended. [12] - For long - term national bonds, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July. For short - term national bonds, the short - term upward momentum may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [13][14] - The upward momentum of silver weakens, and pay attention to the relationship between gold and silver prices. [14] - For PTA, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate with a seasonal increase in supply and weak demand. [15] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity slightly increased, but uncertainty is high, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. The weak US economic outlook and insufficient upward momentum of the US dollar index are favorable for gold. [2] Crude Oil - In the week of July 11, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 1.3375 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply, and OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance. [2] Steel - On July 16, domestic steel oscillated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2950 yuan/ton. Three steel mills lowered the ex - factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affects downstream construction, weakening steel demand, but cost supports steel prices. [4] Coking Coal - The开工 rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period, and the daily average output increased by 0.79 million tons. Coal prices have risen significantly since the end of June, but downstream resistance to high - price coal and profit - taking in the trading link may slow down the increase rate. [4] Manganese Silicon - The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.55%, an increase of 0.21% from last week, and the daily average output increased by 310 tons. The supply of Australian ore is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon tends to be loose in the future. [5] Pig - On July 16, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.61 yuan/kg, a 0.6% decrease from the previous day. High - temperature season, high feed cost, and weak terminal demand lead to a weak adjustment in pig prices. [6] Glass - The average price of float glass is 1179 yuan/ton, the开工 rate is 75.68%, and the total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.87% month - on - month. Terminal demand is weak, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] Palm Oil - From July 1 to 15, 2025, the yield of palm fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the palm oil production increased by 17.06%. The price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term. [9] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions increased by 2.54 million tons compared with last week. The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the addition ratio in feed is low. [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 0.3%, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.92% week - on - week, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] National Bonds - For long - term national bonds, expanding domestic demand is emphasized, and the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July are key. For short - term national bonds, the central bank's net investment is favorable for the bond market, and the short - term upward momentum may be stronger. [13][14] Silver - US PPI data in June was lower than expected, weakening the upward momentum of silver. Pay attention to whether gold and silver prices move in sync. [14] PTA - The CFR price of PX is 836 US dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China is 4718 yuan/ton. Polyester inventory accumulates, and demand drags down the spot price. A short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] Rubber - The price of raw rubber in Thailand is 54.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg. In the first half of 2025, rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire increased by 11.8% year - on - year, while those from Cambodia decreased by 20% year - on - year. Supply increases seasonally, and demand is weak. [15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including crude oil, soda ash, silicon iron, etc., and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each product [2][3][5]. - Economic recovery has a mixed impact on the bond market. The strong economic recovery momentum is fundamentally negative for the bond market, while the recent stock market correction is positive for the bond market, but the bond market is at a critical decision - making point [10]. 3. Summary by Product Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC maintains demand and economic growth forecasts. US crude inventories are rising, and there are expectations of increased supply. The price is expected to be bearish at high levels [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The national heavy - quality soda ash price is in a downward trend. The market is in a state of shock adjustment. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost support is insufficient, but the demand side is resilient. The current supply - demand is healthy, and the price is expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. There is a possibility of supply - demand gap replenishment in the future [5]. - **Threaded Steel**: Due to high - temperature weather affecting construction, steel demand is expected to weaken, and the price may fluctuate weakly [5]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there is a strong expectation of a second price increase due to high coal prices. It is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Pig**: The current price is slightly weak. Group - farm sales are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended for interval trading and farmers can consider hedging [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian export data is negative, and the domestic market is also weak. The price is expected to decline slightly in the short term [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Trade tariff adjustments cause concerns about soybean supply. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with support at 2900 - 2920 and resistance at 3030 [7][8]. - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is recommended to be shorted at high levels [8]. - **Rubber**: Thai raw materials are stable with a slight increase. The overall supply - demand pattern is of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Methanol**: The cost is stable, the domestic start - up is expected to increase, and the port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Plastic**: Supply is expected to change little, demand is in the off - season, and the L 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [10]. Financial Products - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Economic recovery is fundamentally negative for the bond market, but the recent stock market correction is positive. The bond market is at a critical decision - making point near the 60 - day moving average [10]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: The short - term capital is tight, which is negative for short - term treasury bonds. The short - end bonds may be weaker than the long - end bonds. The market logic is unclear, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [11]. - **Silver**: Inflation data is slightly high, the dollar index has risen, and silver is expected to fluctuate slightly more. Attention should be paid to the relationship with gold [11]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances have strengthened, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely and be slightly bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the dollar's movement [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Short-term short [2] - Asphalt: High-level short [8] - PX: Oscillating weakly [8] - Gold: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] - Silver: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Core Views - The supply of coke is slightly decreasing, the demand has rigid support, the first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - International oil prices are falling, with short-term low inventory and medium-term supply increase expectations, so short in the short term [2] - Steel prices are pushed up by limit production and raw material prices, but the demand is expected to weaken this week. Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] - Ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [5] - The short-term price of live pigs rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] - The short-term price of palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] - The short-term price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] - The supply and demand of asphalt improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] - The spot pressure of PX appears, and it is viewed as oscillating weakly [8] - Gold is pushed up by geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances, and it is slightly bullish in the medium-term wide-range oscillation [9] - Silver is slightly bullish in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the synchronous movement with gold [9] - The long-term bond market is affected by the stock-bond seesaw, and whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] - The short-term bond market is affected by tight capital, and attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] - The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] - The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13] Summaries by Variety Coke - Supply: Affected by profit compression and Tangshan limit production, the overall supply continues the downward trend [1] - Demand: Steel mills have low inventory and good profits, and the rigid demand for coke still exists [1] - Price: The first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] Crude Oil - Supply: Short-term low inventory, medium-term OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, with supply increase expectations [2] - Price: International oil prices fall, and short in the short term [2] Rebar - Supply: Affected by limit production and raw material prices, the price is pushed up [4] - Demand: The new round of high temperature affects construction progress, and the demand is expected to weaken this week [4] - Price: Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] Iron Ore - Supply: Port inventory decreases, and the number of ships in port increases [5] - Price: The main futures price oscillates at a high level, and it is expected to continue the high-level oscillation under the game of long and short factors [5] Live Pigs - Supply: The group farms' slaughter rhythm is slow, and the second fattening support is insufficient [6] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the slaughterhouse orders are limited [6] - Price: The short-term price rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian production increases, and Indian imports increase [6] - Demand: The domestic spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the downstream is on the sidelines [6] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] Soybean Meal - Supply: The trade tariff adjustment causes concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter [7] - Demand: The oil mill sales progress is slow, and the basis price is lowered [7] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly output increases, and the supply next week may be restricted [7][8] - Demand: Affected by weather, the infrastructure demand recovers slowly [8] - Price: The supply and demand improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] PX - Supply: The domestic and overseas operating rates show different trends, and the overall supply is relatively stable [8] - Demand: The PTA processing fee is at a new low, and the PX spot pressure appears [8] - Price: Oscillating weakly [8] Gold - Driving Factors: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances strengthen, and the safe-haven sentiment pushes up the price [9] - Price: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] Silver - Driving Factors: The Fed faces threats from the government, and the inflation expectation rises [9] - Price: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Long-term Treasury Bonds - Economic Situation: The economy has strong resilience and the recovery momentum is strengthened [10] - Market Situation: The long-term funds enter the market, and the stock-bond seesaw affects the bond market [10] - Price: Whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] Short-term Treasury Bonds - Capital Situation: The capital is tight, which is bearish for short-term bonds [10] - Price: Attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] Methanol - Supply: The cost is stable, the domestic start-up is expected to increase, and the port import is expected to increase [11] - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to be weak [11] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] Soda Ash - Supply: The production increases, and the inventory rises [12] - Demand: The downstream demand is mediocre [12] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] Plastic - Supply: The production enterprise devices are slightly adjusted, and the supply is expected to change little [13] - Demand: In the traditional off-season, the overall transaction is difficult to expand [13] - Price: The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market has shown a weak trend, with prices gradually declining. The weekly domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, also unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 53,900 tons or 2.98% from the previous week. The enterprises' shipment slowed down, and some enterprises' inventories accumulated. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of about 2 days [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of July 10, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, the same as the previous week. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease. This week, the soda ash operating rate is expected to exceed 84%. The theoretical profit of China's co - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 39.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 82.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Demand - side**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass was 71.01%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The industry's production reduction rhythm is slow, demand is weak, and the high - inventory situation is difficult to reverse. The national daily output of float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase from July 3. The weekly output of float glass was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week and a 7.16% decrease from the same period last year [15]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8634 million tons, a 2.98% increase from the previous week and a 106.22% increase from the same period last year. The inventory of soda ash enterprises continued to increase due to the poor purchasing enthusiasm of major downstream enterprises and weak follow - up of new orders [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of July 11, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures market were 1,166,121, an increase of 56,509, and the short positions were 1,558,689, an increase of 94,504. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, downstream demand is poor, the daily melting volume is stable, and the supply side may continue to increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are insufficient, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1150 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [2][21]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market declined slightly, with an average price of 1174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. In different regions, the market showed different trends. For example, in the Shahe area, the prices were adjusted up and down during the week; the Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market was generally stable with individual price increases; the East China market had minor fluctuations [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis**: As of July 10, the national daily output of float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase from the 3rd. The weekly output was 1.107 billion tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week and a 7.16% decrease year - on - year. The supply side may continue to increase slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels also showed different changes [12]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: As of June 30, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.5 days, a 3.4% decrease from the previous period and a 5.0% decrease year - on - year. The terminal demand for float glass remained weak. From January to May 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a 17.3% year - on - year decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: As of July 10, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million heavy boxes, a 2.87% decrease from the previous period and a 5.54% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 28.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period. The inventory in the North China and East China markets decreased [17]. - **Position Analysis**: As of July 11, the top 20 members' long positions in glass futures increased by 12,752 to 866,583, and the short positions increased by 13,338 to 1,197,213, with a net short position [19]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The profit of float glass enterprises is stable, downstream demand is poor, the daily melting volume is stable, and the supply side may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass is weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased. The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1150 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. Future focus should be on the US biodiesel policy and high - frequency data from the producing areas [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Supply Situation Analysis - In the domestic market, the increase in import costs and the deepening of the import profit inversion have led to a recent reduction in ship purchases. The expectation of supply surplus has been alleviated, and the decline rate of the basis has slowed down, but it remains relatively low overall [2][12]. - According to the MPOB palm oil supply - demand report on the 10th, in the major producing countries, production decreased and exports increased, but the inventory increased more than expected [2][12]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - India imported a large amount of palm oil in June, with relatively sufficient inventory, so the short - term restocking demand is low [2][12]. - In China, the large inversion of the soybean - palm oil price difference means that palm oil is mainly purchased for rigid demand. The high price has also led to short - term wait - and - see attitudes among middle and lower - stream players, resulting in low purchasing willingness and weak demand [2][12]. 5. Market Outlook - Future focus should be on the US biodiesel policy and high - frequency data from the producing areas. In the short term, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][12].