期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 棕榈油期货：震荡偏强，重心继续上移 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：2026年1月19—25日棕榈油期现"震荡走强、内外联动"，国内主力P2605周涨 2.72%收8910元/吨，马棕油主连涨2.53%收4174林吉特/吨，国内现货随期货同步走高，核心驱动是马棕季节 性减产、节前备货与油脂板块轮动，高库存与政策扰动制约涨幅。 主产国数据：供应端马棕油季节性减产，1月1—20日产量环比减少 16.06%，出口持续改善，产需情况 持续改善；需求端国内节前备货与油脂板块轮动带动采购回升，但高库存与豆棕价差倒挂抑制需求承接力。 政策与消息：印尼取消B50生物柴油计划，2026年延续B40计划，短期利空生物燃料需求，但长期政 策稳定利好市场预期；美国生物柴油政策即将发布，利多预期提振植物油需求。 展望：印尼供应风险和美国生柴预期两大核心故事未被证伪前，棕榈油期价的强势基础仍在。短期棕 榈油易涨难跌，操作上短多持有。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化。 2、本周基本 ...

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 原油期货：地缘风险仍在、油价偏强 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： | 原油 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC原油期货 | 元/桶 | 441.90 | 438.80 | 3.10 | 0.71% | 日度 | | 阿曼原油现货 | 美元/桶 | 62.63 | 62.79 | -0.16 | -0.25% | 日度 | | 布伦特原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 66.29 | 64.20 | 2.09 | 3.26% | 日度 | | WTI原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 61.29 | 59.44 | 1.85 | 3.11% | 日度 | | 美国原油产量 | 千桶/日 | 13580 | 13753 | -173 | -1.26% | 周度 | | 美国原油库存 | 千桶 | 426049 | 422477 | 3572 | 0.85% | 周度 | ...

2026年01月26日 周报 期货研究报告 PTA期货：依据成本低位偏多 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面大幅上涨，TA2605收5452元/吨，涨430元/吨或8.57%。年底终端需求 转淡，织机开工率稳步下滑，部分聚酯企业开启检修，但 PTA工厂亦坚持控产，社会库存延续去化。资本市 场对化工产业的看好，而PX和PTA方面因基本面的支撑，资金介入偏积极，PTA大涨。 2、本轮PTA和PX在聚酯产业链走向淡季时发动上涨行情，本质上是对明年上半年PX和PTA双强供需格局预期 的提前反应。目前PTA计划检修较多，供应端维持行业控产，而下游需求逐步走弱，春节前 PTA预期累库，但压 力整体低于往年，关注意外停车情况。目前PXN 裂差偏强震荡，PTA 加工费显著修复，产业链上游估值偏高， 市场预期定价已有体现，成本端关注油价扰动。近期宏观情绪向好，资金对化工板块配置意愿增强，但PTA 绝 对价格仍主要跟随成本运行，关注原料市场走势。建议依据成本低多思路，追高需谨慎。 期货研究报告 关注因素：1.聚酯开工率；2.PTA ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices remained stable. On the supply side, coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang that were previously shut down or restricted are gradually resuming production, and the overall supply of coking coal is increasing steadily. Due to strict safety inspections recently, most coal mines are maintaining their previous production rhythms, and the supply of the main coal types without obvious inventory is in a tight balance. The coke market continues to be in a game situation, with continuous voices for the first round of price increase for coke, but there is still no clear implementation time [2]. - Looking ahead, the winter storage of downstream coking coal enterprises is still ongoing, and there is an expectation that the production of supply - side coal mines will decline approaching the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has a small upward momentum. However, the upward driving force of the futures market is limited after the previous concentrated trading on the restocking logic, so it is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices remained stable. The supply of coking coal is increasing steadily, and the coke market is in a game over the first - round price increase [2]. - **Future Outlook**: The winter storage of downstream coking coal enterprises continues, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline approaching the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will improve marginally, with a small upward momentum for spot prices, while the futures market is expected to fluctuate [2]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 2270.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 36.38 million tons (1.63%); the total coke inventory is 939.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.94 million tons (2.06%) [4]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron production of steel mills is 228.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons (0.04%); the daily average coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises is not specifically given in text data but presented in figures. The daily average production of refined coal from mines and coal washing plants is also presented in figures [4]. - **Profit**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton (1.54%); the profitability rate of 247 steel mills is presented in figures [4]. Market Data Presentation - **Futures Market**: The 5 - day intraday chart of coking coal and coke's main contracts is presented, but no specific data analysis is given [6]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated average price of various coking coal types, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian main coking coal, the aggregated price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke, and the first - class arrival price in Hebei Iron and Steel are presented in figures, with no specific data analysis [8][11]. - **Fundamental Data**: Multiple data on production, inventory, and profit are presented in figures, including the daily average production of refined coal, Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, coking coal and coke inventory and available days, etc. [18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple commodities including methanol, silver, etc., and offers corresponding investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and waiting for market stabilization [1][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Market data: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2263 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 89.92%, down 1.18% week - on - week; the total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, down 1.3% weekly; the methanol port sample inventory is 145.75 tons, up 2.22 tons weekly [1]. - Outlook: With high domestic methanol production and falling downstream demand, the port inventory has slightly increased. The inland market is weak, and the port basis has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Silver - Market factors: A storm in the US has affected market risk preferences, and gold has risen due to safe - haven demand [1]. - Outlook: Silver is still bullish in the long term, but the short - term upward momentum may be limited. Attention should be paid to the interaction between gold and silver [1]. Pig - Market data: As of January 23, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123 kg, up 0.01 kg; the weekly slaughter rate is 34.13%, up 0.66%; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding is 37.85 yuan/head, up 79.68 yuan/head; the self - breeding profit is 115.96 yuan/head, up 52.46 yuan/head; the piglet price is 343.33 yuan/head, up 34.28 yuan/head [3]. - Outlook: The pig price rose first and then fell over the weekend. The supply of standard - weight pigs is relatively abundant, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization [3]. Palm Oil - Market factors: Italy has passed a new biofuel regulation, and the SGS data shows a 2.70% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 [3]. - Outlook: Although the current demand is weak, the strong foundation for palm oil futures prices remains. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, and short - term long positions are recommended [3]. Soybean Meal - Market data: On January 23, the domestic soybean meal spot prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3180 yuan/ton (stable), 3080 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), 3070 yuan/ton (stable), and 3060 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - Outlook: The spot price has a slight upward trend due to pre - holiday stocking, but the high oil mill operating rate and future Brazilian soybean supply pressure limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see as it lacks direction in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 72.55%, down 0.14%; the daily coke output is 63.45 tons, down 0.12 tons; the coke inventory is 81.81 tons, down 4.26 tons; the coking coal inventory is 1132.85 tons, up 61.17 tons; the available days of coking coal are 13.4 days, up 0.75 days [4]. - Outlook: The downstream winter storage is ongoing, and the coal mine output is expected to decline. The fundamental situation will improve marginally, but the upward momentum of the futures market is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [4]. Iron Ore - Market data: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 16766.53 tons, up 211.43 tons; the daily port clearance volume is 310.73 tons, down 9.16 tons; the number of ships at ports is 118, up 1 [5]. - Outlook: Although the inventory pressure is increasing, considering supply and demand factors, the further inventory accumulation pressure is limited. The price is supported in the short term and is expected to fluctuate [5]. Rebar - Market data: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate is 40.69%, up 0.86 percentage points; the daily hot metal output is 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons [5]. - Outlook: The building material demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory accumulation speed is expected to accelerate as steel mills resume production. However, the cost side provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Soda Ash - Market data: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly output is 77.17 tons, down 0.46%; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 152.12 tons, down 3.42%; the float glass operating rate is 71.62%, up 0.14 percentage points [6]. - Outlook: The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. With high supply and mediocre demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. PVC - Market data: The price of East China SG - 5 PVC is 4650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.74%, down 0.89%; the social inventory is 117.75 tons, up 2.92%; the average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 733 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers is - 164 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: With high supply, low domestic demand, and rapid inventory accumulation, the price is under pressure. However, strong exports support the price. It is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [7]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of January 23, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 411, up 1 from the previous week and down 61 from the same period last year [8]. - Outlook: The US has increased pressure on Iran, and geopolitical risks have pushed up international oil prices. Short - term long positions are recommended, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the US winter storm [8]. Synthetic Rubber - Market data: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene enterprises is 11.06 tons, up 0.01 tons; the butadiene inventory has significantly decreased, down 14.84%; the profit of butadiene extraction process is 2693 yuan/ton, up 317 yuan/ton [9]. - Outlook: The increase is mainly driven by butadiene. With sufficient supply of synthetic rubber and high downstream shipment pressure, it is recommended to be cautious when going long and use short - term long positions at low levels [9]. Asphalt - Market data: As of January 21, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate is 26.8%, down 0.4 percentage points; as of January 23, the weekly output is 47.6 tons, down 1.2 tons; the factory inventory is 60.9 tons, down 1.3 tons; the social inventory is 86.2 tons, up 4.7 tons [10]. - Outlook: The supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, but supply disruptions and cost support are expected to boost the asphalt futures market, which is expected to remain strong [10]. Copper - Market data: Zijin Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II project has been put into operation, with the annual copper production expected to increase from 190,000 tons to 300,000 - 350,000 tons [11]. - Outlook: The long - term supply shortage situation remains, but the market is digesting the high - level pressure after the previous price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Market data: Most short - term Shibor varieties have declined. The overnight rate is down 1.7 BP to 1.396%, the 7 - day rate is down 0.6 BP to 1.491%, the 14 - day rate is down 1.3 BP to 1.577%, and the 1 - month rate is up 0.07 BP to 1.5577% [11]. - Outlook: The loosening of the capital market is beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [11]. Gold - Market factors: The US has increased military deployment and imposed sanctions on Iran, increasing the possibility of war [12]. - Outlook: Safe - haven sentiment supports the gold price. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [12]. Aluminum - Market data: In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.0226 million tons, and the consumption was 5.8176 million tons, with a surplus of 204,900 tons. From January to November, the production was 66.7204 million tons, and the consumption was 68.248 million tons, with a shortage of 1.5276 million tons [12]. - Outlook: The shortage situation at the end of 2025 has gradually changed to a surplus. In the current off - season, the surplus trend continues. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [12].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Industries No investment ratings for industries are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The US economy remains strong, boosting silver. However, short - term upward momentum for silver is limited, and the interaction between gold and silver should be monitored [1]. - Domestic methanol has high production but falling downstream demand. Port inventory has slightly increased, and the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals of coking coal will gradually improve, and the spot price has upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The supply of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - Steel demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues. It is recommended to wait and see for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - Palm oil futures prices are likely to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal will follow the external market, and it lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to strengthen with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Gold has risen again due to geopolitical events, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of copper are weak, and it is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations [8]. - The international oil price has fallen, and there is currently no significant upward driving force in the crude oil market [9]. - PTA supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, but the inventory build - up is limited, and it mainly follows raw material price fluctuations [11]. - Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. - The supply - demand of aluminum is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term with new production capacity pressure and a decline in high - level inventory [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: The US GDP growth, inflation data, and employment situation show a strong economy, which boosts silver. Long - term bullish, short - term upward momentum is limited [1]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical events such as the Greenland issue have led to an increase in gold prices. Excessive bullishness is not recommended [8]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, US inventory has increased, and the market lacks upward driving force. Short - term trading is appropriate [9]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: High domestic production, falling downstream demand, rising port inventory. Expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weakening in January, inventory build - up is limited, and it follows raw material price fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [11]. - **PVC**: Supply is abundant, demand is in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, but the price is relatively firm. Expected to be under pressure but slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: New production capacity pressure, high - level inventory decline, and expected short - term fluctuations [14][15]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand game continues. It is recommended to wait for a stable trend, and the sustainability of the rebound is uncertain [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Expected to rise in the short term due to un - falsified supply risks in Indonesia and US biodiesel expectations [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: Follows the external market in the short term, lacks a clear direction. Recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Supply is shrinking overseas, but there is pressure from imports and inventory. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, fundamentals will improve, spot price has upward momentum, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement supports the price [4]. - **Rebar**: Demand is weak, inventory is rising, but there are expectations for the post - Spring Festival market. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [5]. - **Aluminum**: Supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High domestic methanol开工, declining downstream demand, slightly increasing port inventory. Expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [1]. - Silver: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations, limited short - term upward momentum, long - term bullish [2]. - Pig: Weak adjustment of pig prices, difficult to rise continuously in the short - term, recommend waiting for stability [4]. - Palm Oil: Increasing exports and declining production support prices, short - term "weak reality, strong expectation", hold short - term long positions [5]. - Soybean Meal: Short - term lack of direction, recommend waiting and watching [6]. - Iron Ore: Weakening supply - demand structure, expected price correction [6]. - Coking Coal: Improving fundamentals, spot has upward momentum, short - term expected to fluctuate [7]. - Rebar: Weak supply - demand, limited downward space, expected to stabilize [8]. - Soda Ash: Expected to maintain short - term oscillation [9]. - Crude Oil: Market is currently flat, short - term trading [10]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakening in January, follow raw material fluctuations, short - term trading [10]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to fluctuate, short - term trading [11]. - Short - term Treasury Bonds: Funds are stable, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [12]. - Gold: Reduced upward momentum, not recommended to be overly bullish [12]. - Copper: High - level oscillation in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: High - level oscillation in the short - term [13]. - Plastic: Expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Methanol - Market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2215 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton; weekly capacity utilization is 91.11%, down 0.31% week - on - week; downstream capacity utilization is 72.2%, down 1.85% week - on - week; port inventory is 145.75 tons, up 2.22 tons; production enterprise inventory is 43.83 tons, down 1.25 tons [1]. Silver - Most economists expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this quarter and may hold off until May. Most still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [2]. Pig - On January 21, the average pork price in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 18.50 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from the previous day; egg price was 8.20 yuan/kg, up 0.9% [4]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's January 1 - 20 exports increased 8.64% compared to the same period last month; production decreased 16.06% [5]. Soybean Meal - On January 21, domestic spot prices were stable to slightly weak, with some regions down 10 yuan/ton [6]. Iron Ore - From January 12 - 18, 47 - port arrivals decreased 117.3 tons; 45 - port arrivals decreased 260.7 tons; northern six - port arrivals decreased 26.3 tons [6]. Coking Coal - The average national ton - coke profit is - 65 yuan/ton, with different profits in different regions [7]. Rebar - On January 21, domestic steel markets were slightly weak; Tangshan billet price was stable at 2930 yuan/ton; some steel mills adjusted prices [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1232 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; weekly output is 77.53 tons, up 2.88%; inventory is 157.5 tons, up 0.15% [9]. Crude Oil - IEA raised the 2026 oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels/day to 930,000 barrels/day; supply growth is adjusted to 2.5 million barrels/day [10]. PTA - Polyester inventory is concentrated at 14 - 24 days, PTA开工 has declined, and downstream polyester is reducing production seasonally [10]. Natural Rubber - As of January 18, China's social inventory is 127.3 tons, up 1.7 tons, an increase of 1.3% [11]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties show differentiation, with overnight down 5.2BP, 7 - day up 0.5BP, 14 - day up 1.5BP, and 1 - month down 0.1BP [12]. Gold - The Greenland issue has eased, reducing the upward momentum of gold [12]. Copper - In 2025, China's copper foil import value increased by 10.68% and export value increased by 29.61% year - on - year; brass rod demand slowed [13]. Aluminum - Rio Tinto's 2025 bauxite output reached 62.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year increase [13]. Plastic - North China LLDPE price is 6626 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton; weekly output is 31.17 tons, up 3.34%; enterprise inventory is down 5.8% [14].

Group 1: Energy and Chemicals Futures Market - Crude oil: The main contract closed at 440.8, up 0.52% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 26,065 lots to 78,058 lots, and open interest decreased by 111 lots to 39,936 lots [2]. - PTA: The main contract closed at 5,154, up 1.50% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 94,325 lots to 1,430,723 lots, and open interest increased by 8,005 lots to 1,466,380 lots [2]. - PX: The main contract closed at 7,206, up 0.84% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 30,519 lots to 339,590 lots, and open interest decreased by 16,476 lots to 170,240 lots [2]. - Rubber: The main contract closed at 15,745, up 0.86% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 45,090 lots to 206,109 lots, and open interest increased by 2,136 lots to 181,112 lots [2]. - NR: The main contract closed at 12,615, up 0.56% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 1,172 lots to 48,971 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,666 lots to 62,058 lots [2]. Spot Market and Basis - Crude oil (Oman): Spot price was 400.0, up 6.0 from the previous day. The basis improved to -41 from -98 [3]. - PTA (East China): Spot price was 5,090, up 80 from the previous day. The basis improved to -64 from -119 [3]. - PX (Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Zhejiang): Spot price remained at 7,300. The basis decreased to 94 from 166 [3]. - Rubber (SCRWF, Shanghai): Spot price remained at 15,400. The basis improved to -345 from -1,640 [3]. Spread and Other Indicators - PXN remained at 339. - PTA cash - flow cost increased to 4,933 from 4,886 [4]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Futures Market - Rebar: The main contract (2605) closed at 3,117, down 0.35% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 302,922 lots to 633,661 lots, and open interest increased by 1,023 lots to 1,742,258 lots [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract (2605) closed at 3,286, down 0.06% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 136,699 lots to 335,123 lots, and open interest decreased by 36,985 lots to 1,449,160 lots [9]. - Iron ore: The main contract (2605) closed at 784, down 0.32% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 137,601 lots to 225,102 lots, and open interest decreased by 11,163 lots to 575,249 lots [9]. - Coke: The main contract (2605) closed at 1,683.5, down 0.59% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 7,401 lots to 14,616 lots, and open interest decreased by 71 lots to 38,358 lots [9]. - Coking coal: The main contract (2605) closed at 1,129, down 1.83% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 223,511 lots to 864,680 lots, and open interest decreased by 17,288 lots to 515,444 lots [9]. Spot Market and Basis - Rebar (HRB400 20MM, Shanghai): Spot price was 3,270, down 10 from the previous day. The basis decreased to 153 from 169 [10]. - Hot - rolled coil (4.75MM, Shanghai): Spot price was 3,270, down 10 from the previous day. The basis decreased to -16 from 4 [10]. - Iron ore (Rizhao Port PB powder): Spot price was 797, up 3 from the previous day. The basis increased to 13 from 4.5 [10]. - Coke (Xingtai): Spot price remained at 1,370. The basis decreased to -313.5 from -303.5 [10]. - Coking coal (Liulin): Spot price remained at 1,550. The basis decreased to 421 from 426 [10]. Spread and Other Indicators - Rebar 05 - 10 spread increased to -45 from -48. - Hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread remained at -19. - Iron ore 05 - 10 spread decreased to 21.5 from 22. - Coke 05 - 10 spread increased to -85 from -106. - Coking coal 05 - 10 spread increased to -86 from -104. - Rebar mill profit on the futures market increased to -159.4 from -171.8. - Hot - rolled coil mill profit on the futures market increased to 159.6 from 143.2. - The total spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil increased to 169 from 165. - The ratio of rebar to iron ore increased to 3.98 from 3.94. - The ratio of coke to coking coal on the futures market remained at 1.49 [11]. Group 3: Financial Futures and Precious Metals Futures Market - Stock index futures: IF main contract closed at 4,722.80, up 0.41% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 5,750 lots to 74,116 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,123 lots to 173,409 lots. IH main contract closed at 3,073.60, down 0.01% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 2,727 lots to 34,230 lots, and open interest increased by 1,743 lots to 58,489 lots. IC main contract closed at 8,371.00, up 1.89% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 21,477 lots to 101,832 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,994 lots to 175,976 lots. IM main contract closed at 8,231.00, up 1.73% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 17,500 lots to 133,027 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,631 lots to 192,142 lots [13]. - Treasury bond futures: Two - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 102.43, down 0.01% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 4,787 lots to 25,032 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,054 lots to 69,242 lots. Five - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 105.88, up 0.01% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 5,171 lots to 54,402 lots, and open interest decreased by 194 lots to 147,077 lots. Ten - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 108.20, up 0.03% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 11,164 lots to 73,032 lots, and open interest increased by 1,698 lots to 243,456 lots. Thirty - year Treasury bond main contract closed at 112.25, up 0.75% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 1,260 lots to 109,819 lots, and open interest decreased by 78 lots to 144,204 lots [13]. - Precious metals: Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1,088.90, up 3.80% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 32,223 lots to 103,931 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,279 lots to 64,180 lots. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 23,180.00, down 0.03% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 7,975 lots to 60,910 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,594 lots to 46,814 lots [13]. Basis and Other Indicators - IF basis decreased to 0.27 from 3.42, with a spot price of 4,723.07. - IH basis decreased to -6.42 from 2.67, with a spot price of 3,067.18. - IC basis decreased to -30.89 from 17.36, with a spot price of 8,340.11. - IM basis decreased to 16.68 from 23.69, with a spot price of 8,247.68. - Gold basis decreased to -30.54 from 3.80, with a spot price of 1,086.10. - Silver basis increased to -125.00 from -129.00, with a spot price of 23,228.00. - The ratio of Shanghai gold index to Shanghai silver index decreased to 0.05 from 0.08. - The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds decreased to 4.05 from 5.75. - The spread between 30 - year and 5 - year Treasury bonds decreased to 6.37 from 7.19. - The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bonds increased to 2.32 from 1.44. - The spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds increased to 5.77 from 3.83. - The spread between 5 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds increased to 3.45 from 2.39 [14][15]. Group 4: Other Chemicals Futures Market - Soda ash: The main contract (2605) closed at 1,163, down 1.61% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 126,968 lots to 652,780 lots, and open interest increased by 19,651 lots to 1,173,371 lots [17]. - Glass: The main contract (2605) closed at 1,039, down 2.35% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 105,806 lots to 612,826 lots, and open interest increased by 31,714 lots to 1,240,656 lots [17]. - Methanol: The main contract (2605) closed at 2,209, up 0.45% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 123,958 lots to 1,195,172 lots, and open interest increased by 18,039 lots to 848,962 lots [17]. - PP: The main contract (2605) closed at 6,485, up 0.42% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 2,378 lots to 291,242 lots, and open interest increased by 2,082 lots to 468,323 lots [17]. Spot Market and Basis - Soda ash (East China, Chongqing): Spot price remained at 1,230. The basis increased to 67 from 23 [19]. - Glass (National floating glass average): Spot price remained at 1,099. The basis increased to 60 from 43 [19]. - Methanol (Jiangsu Taicang mainstream): Spot price increased to 2,220 from 2,198. The basis increased to 11 from -8 [19]. - PP (East China PP拉丝): Spot price decreased to 6,420 from 6,432. The basis decreased to -65 from -29 [19]. Spread and Other Indicators - Soda ash 05 - 09 spread decreased to -63 from -61. - Glass 05 - 09 spread increased to -107 from -109. - Methanol 05 - 09 spread decreased to -23 from -19. - PP 05 - 09 spread decreased to -34 from -31. - The spread between glass 2605 and soda ash 2605 decreased to -124 from -121. - The spread between PP2605 and 3 * methanol 2605 increased to -142 from -157 [20]. Group 5: Non - ferrous Metals Futures Market - Shanghai copper: The main contract closed at 101,280, up 0.04% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 54,255 lots to 230,318 lots, and open interest increased by 4,886 lots to 223,784 lots [23]. - Shanghai aluminum: The main contract closed at 24,155, up 0.56% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 20,723 lots to 468,256 lots, and open interest increased by 10,473 lots to 343,223 lots [23]. - Shanghai zinc: The main contract closed at 24,350, down 0.20% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 3,030 lots to 146,086 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,200 lots to 121,693 lots [23]. - Shanghai lead: The main contract closed at 17,115, down 0.67% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 9,580 lots to 46,316 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,839 lots to 69,351 lots [23]. - Shanghai nickel: The main contract closed at 143,060, up 0.39% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 50,447 lots to 745,593 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,283 lots to 75,722 lots [23]. - Shanghai tin: The main contract closed at 418,420, up 5.79% from the previous settlement. Volume increased by 34,246 lots to 281,882 lots, and open interest decreased by 874 lots to 22,953 lots [23]. - Alumina: The main contract closed at 2,672, down 0.71% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 183,171 lots to 371,676 lots, and open interest decreased by 16,569 lots to 486,425 lots [23]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract closed at 8,780, up 0.52% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 57,731 lots to 280,575 lots, and open interest decreased by 865 lots to 223,687 lots [23]. - Lithium carbonate: The main contract closed at 166,740, up 7.26% from the previous settlement. Volume decreased by 74,656 lots to 376,418 lots, and open interest increased by 12,577 lots to 427,928 lots [23]. Basis and Other Indicators - Shanghai copper basis decreased to -1,220 from -505, with a spot price

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Geopolitical events are causing continuous fluctuations in the market, with risk aversion sentiment influencing precious metals and other commodities [2][8]. - The supply - demand relationship of various commodities is complex, with some facing supply constraints and others dealing with weak demand, leading to different short - term trends [4][5]. - Multiple commodities are recommended for short - term trading due to limited self - driving forces and high uncertainty [4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: Risk aversion sentiment is rising, but its boost to silver is limited. Long - term outlook is positive, but short - term upward momentum is weak. Do not over - bullish, and pay attention to the interaction between gold and silver [2]. - **Gold**: Risk aversion drives gold to strengthen again, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. There is a possibility of a catch - up rise, but do not over - bullish, and focus on geopolitical disturbances [2]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: After the weakening of geopolitical impacts, the crude oil market is in a dull state, lacking significant driving forces. Short - term trading is appropriate [4]. Chemicals - **PTA**: PTA device restarts and overhauls coexist, with overall开工 decreasing. Demand is weak during the Spring Festival. January's supply - demand is expected to weaken, with limited inventory accumulation in January but high pressure in February. It mainly follows raw material fluctuations, and short - term trading is advisable [5]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol is at a high - level of production, while downstream demand is falling. Port inventory has decreased significantly. This week's imports are expected to increase substantially. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply and imports have decreased slightly, but port inventory has increased. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving开工 rates are falling. It is in the traditional off - season, and demand is weak, so it is expected to be weak in the short term [12]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic rubber inventory continues to accumulate, and the social inventory has reached a neutral level. The de - stocking rhythm is slower than expected. Technically, it is in short - term adjustment. Short - selling or waiting is recommended in the short term [5]. Metals - **Iron Ore**: Affected by production accidents and new arrivals, the market sentiment is weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose, but there is some support for prices. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is not significant, but the resumption of production may accelerate. It is expected to follow the black - sector trend in the short term [8]. - **Copper**: Geopolitical issues increase global trade uncertainty, which may boost copper. Fundamental factors are mixed, and it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [8]. - **Aluminum**: Leading enterprises are expanding overseas, but there are risks. Supply - demand factors are mixed, and it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term [9]. - **Rebar**: Due to bad weather, demand weakens, and cost support decreases. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Others - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Support policies in 2026 are expected to promote economic recovery. The stock - bond seesaw may be the main logic, and the fluctuation of treasury bonds will increase [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Float glass production decreases slightly, and inventory drops. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11].

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's independence remains a market concern, and geopolitical factors increase the risk aversion sentiment, but excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [1]. - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to high开工, decreased downstream demand, and expected large - scale imports [2]. - The steel market may experience weak fluctuations in the short term due to the impact of cold snaps on demand and potential production cuts by steel mills [4]. - The manganese - silicon market will continue to have a loose supply - demand pattern, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate around the cost valuation [4]. - The coke market may gradually become tighter in supply - demand structure, with the spot price following the cost and the futures price following the coking coal [5]. - The impact of the sow inventory data on the futures market has been digested quickly, and low - buying the LH2603 contract is recommended for the hog market [5]. - The palm oil market is in a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation", and range trading is recommended [6]. - The soybean meal market will have a loose supply in the first quarter, and the spot price is restricted, with the futures price expected to decline [6]. - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The aluminum price is expected to continue the high - level shock due to supply constraints and weak demand [7]. - The long - term treasury bond market has increased shock attributes, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted [8]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term due to new capacity pressure and high inventory [9]. - The silver market has long - term support but limited short - term upward momentum, and excessive bullishness is not recommended [10]. - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term due to high supply and weak demand [11]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure, and short - selling trading is recommended in the short term [12]. - The PX market is expected to have a limited downward space in the second quarter, and the impact of Middle - East geopolitics on oil prices should be noted [13]. - The natural rubber market is expected to have a short - term correction, and short - selling or waiting and seeing is recommended [14]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Types Metals - **Gold**: The Fed chairman's participation in the debate and geopolitical factors increase risk aversion, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [1] - **Silver**: The IMF's economic forecast supports long - term demand, but short - term upward momentum is limited, and geopolitical factors should be noted [10] - **Copper**: The long - term structural support for copper prices remains, but short - term upward momentum may weaken, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [7] - **Aluminum**: High prices and external tariffs suppress demand, and the supply faces a ceiling. The price is expected to continue the high - level shock [7] - **Steel (including rebar)**: Cold snaps affect demand, and steel mills may cut production. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices may fluctuate weakly [4] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate around the cost valuation [4] - **Coke**: Cost supports the price, and the supply - demand structure may become tighter, with the spot following the cost and the futures following coking coal [5] Chemicals - **Methanol**: High开工, decreased downstream demand, and expected large - scale imports may lead to short - term weak fluctuations [2] - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and price competition in exports put pressure on the price, which is expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] - **PX**: The supply is high in January, and the first - quarter supply - demand is weaker than expected, but the second - quarter downward space is limited [13] - **Soda Ash**: New capacity pressure and high inventory may lead to short - term weak fluctuations [9] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical factors lead to a weak trend, and short - selling trading is recommended in the short term [12] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Strong exports and production decline support the price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. Range trading is recommended [6] - **Soybean Meal**: Loose supply in the first quarter and weak demand restrict the price, and the futures price may decline [6] - **Hog**: The impact of sow inventory data has been digested, and low - buying the LH2603 contract is recommended [5] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw material prices in Southeast Asia are firm, but inventory accumulation and slow de - stocking may lead to a short - term correction [14] Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery and the stock - bond seesaw effect increase the shock attributes of the bond market [8]