1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - With the supporting effects of secondary fattening entry and frozen product warehousing gradually emerging, the decline of live pig prices has stopped in recent days. However, the strength of these two supports is limited and difficult to drive a significant price rebound. Before the end of October, live pig prices will not see significant adjustments and will mainly show "bottom - range fluctuations" with a relatively narrow price fluctuation range [2][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents the monthly trend chart of the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial pigs (in kilograms), and the inventory structure of commercial pigs by weight (%) [5][7][11] 3.2 Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the operating rate (%) of key slaughtering enterprises and the frozen product storage capacity rate (%) of key slaughtering enterprises [13][16] 3.3 Cost - Profit Analysis - The report includes the self - breeding and self - raising farming profit (yuan per head) and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening (yuan per head) [18][20] 3.4 Market Outlook - With the supporting effects of secondary fattening entry and frozen product warehousing gradually emerging, the decline of live pig prices has stopped in recent days. But these two supports are not strong enough to drive a significant price rebound. Before the end of October, live pig prices will mainly show "bottom - range fluctuations" with a narrow price range [2][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Due to the combination of the stock - bond seesaw and loose liquidity counter - cyclical adjustments, bond futures operations are more difficult, and the bond market shows obvious oscillation characteristics. The future trend of the bond market is still mainly influenced by these two factors [2]. - The economic data released recently indicates that the downward pressure on the economy is still large, which provides long - term support for the bond market. The government's counter - cyclical adjustment measures and the central bank's loose monetary policy are double - edged swords for the bond market. Loose liquidity is beneficial to the bond market, especially the short - end bond market [2]. - Geopolitical risks give way to economic downward risks, and the bond market may see more favorable factors driven by risk - aversion factors. The overall bond market remains oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market. If the upward momentum of the stock market weakens, the bond market may enter an upward channel again [3]. - Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a pattern of oscillating with a slight upward trend [31]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the bond market into a continuous downward trend, but on the weekly level, it shows a high - level oscillatory trend. On the daily level, it is at the neckline position of the long - term high - level oscillation and has the need for an oscillatory rebound. The combination of abundant liquidity logic and the stock - bond seesaw logic makes bond market operations more difficult [9]. 2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [13]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments more effectively, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [13][15]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The import and export growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter. In September, the total import and export value was 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, the highest monthly growth rate this year [15]. - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [15]. - From January to September 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% month - on - month [15]. - China's social consumer goods retail in September was 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [16]. 3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamental - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. China's social consumer goods retail in September was 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The overall economic data shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy has weakened. If counter - cyclical adjustments continue to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long run [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspect - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure abundant liquidity, support consumption and investment, and maintain the stability of the financial market and the RMB exchange rate. In August, the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed, indicating an increase in economic activities. The growth rate of social financing stock slightly increased, and the monthly new social financing mainly relied on government bond issuance [19]. 3.3 Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has been continuously declining, and the cost of funds has decreased. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain abundant liquidity. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year may provide more room for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low, but it remains an option if necessary [22]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and formulate a detailed plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal this year amount to 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term oscillatory range and declined, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond cost - performance ratio has slightly decreased recently, it is still in a high - level range. Whether it will continue to decline needs continuous observation. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [27]. 4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The international environment for China's A - shares has become extremely complex, and short - term fluctuations may increase, but the long - term upward trend is generally recognized. The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market has become more complex. Under the background of continuous Fed interest rate cuts, the combined effect of the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity logic makes bond market operations more difficult. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a pattern of oscillating with a slight upward trend [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak due to large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. - In the future, the steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel prices still face significant upward pressure and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak because of large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations, but the raw material side provided some support. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese government emphasizes counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and improving the industrial ecosystem [6]. - China and the United States will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [6]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [6]. - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan; M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year; the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In September, China's PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [7]. - The World Steel Association expects global steel demand in 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, reaching about 1.75 billion tons. The decline in China's steel demand is expected to slow down, and steel demand in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will grow strongly. European steel demand will experience a long - awaited recovery [7]. - On October 17, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% new tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts starting from November 1. He also said that a 10% tariff will be imposed on imported passenger cars [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 97,800 tons, lower than last week's 99,900 tons. The overall market trading was weak, terminal purchasing willingness was low, and the spot trading price was getting closer to the low level [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are generally in a state of small profit or loss. It is expected that the supply side will continue to shrink, which is conducive to alleviating the supply - demand contradiction. The steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and steel prices may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][26].

双焦期货周度报告 2025年10月20日 需求相对坚挺 提涨意愿再起 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内炼焦煤、焦炭市场价格呈稳定局面，心 态方面波动较大。周五主流焦企提涨焦炭价格第二轮涨价，幅度 50-55元/吨，预计自10月20日起执行，加之近期铁水产量维持高 位，下游对炼焦煤上涨有一定利好支撑。 基本面分析：炼焦煤整体供应无明显变化，除个别矿点因搬 家倒面、安全检查等原因致产量仍未恢复，其余煤矿基本维持正 常生产节奏。需求方面，近期焦炭供应保持稳定，多数焦企维持 正常生产，厂内库存未现明显累积，整体呈现即产即销态势。近 期钢材价格及成材需求情况震荡偏弱，后续原料端价格是否可以 持续偏强尚需关注宏观及钢厂利润等因素的反馈。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周国内炼焦 ...

关税扰动减弱，贵金属回调压力加大 摘 要： 美国政府停摆叠加国际政治动荡，避险情绪推动黄金不断创出 新高。但是在黄金创出 4392 高点之后，短期调整的压力加大。目 前美国政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济的数据无法进一步 获得，但是从美联储官员的表述来看，市场基本对 10 月份继续降 息已经有所定价，后续市场更多关注的是地缘避险因素，及美国政 府的内部分歧和博弈情况。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服 务或暂停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到一定影响。但是从美联储官 员讲话及相关机构数据来看，市场基本对 10 月降息完全定价。年 内降息 2 次，甚至明年继续降息目前依然是市场主流。美国总统特 朗普在最新的采访中继续释放缓和信号，暗示大门仍敞开着。特朗 普政府正在低调地放松多项关税政策，近几周来已将数十种产品从 其所谓的"对等关税"中豁免，并在各国与美国达成贸易协议时提 出愿意将更多产品排除在关税之外。关税之战略有缓和，后续进展 情况，依然需要持续观察。 离岸人民币汇率主要被动跟随美元指数波动，节假日过后，由 于国内消费 ...

棕榈油逢低做多 摘 要： 行情展望： 棕榈油近月基本面呈现"供增需减"特征，产量回 升，库存压力犹存。且印尼 B50 计划实施时间尚远，短期 内对棕榈油供应格局影响有限，难以对当前市场形成实质 性支撑。当前棕榈油市场已进入"利多出尽"阶段，短期 内价格仍面临调整压力，预计震荡运行为主。操作上建议 逢低做多。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：24度棕榈油均价走势（元/吨） 2. 供应情况分析 图 2：中国棕榈油进口数据 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 4.成本利润分析 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and geopolitical factors both point to downward pressure on oil prices. The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. However, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and weak trend. The SC2512 contract opened at 458 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 433, and closed at 435, with a weekly decline of 28 or 6.23% [3] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ members' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply in September reached 108 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1st, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held. Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production - cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30th. On October 5th, eight voluntarily - production - cutting OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next meeting of these eight countries will be held on November 2nd [6] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to be between 515 million and 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16th that the 2025 production is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains at a high level. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - Russia's crude oil exports are at a high level. As of the four - week period ending on October 12th, the average daily shipment from Russian ports was 3.74 million barrels, the highest since June 2023. IEA data shows that in September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day [7] 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week ending on October 10th, the US daily crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending on October 17th, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 418, the same as the previous week and 64 less than the same period last year [8] - The EIA estimates that from the third quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustments will be made later in 2026. The average Brent crude oil price next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [8] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - The IEA expects that the daily crude oil production of non - OPEC+ countries will increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively this year and next year, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+'s daily crude oil production will increase by 1.4 million barrels in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that next year's global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than demand [14] 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019 [14] - As of the week ending on October 10th, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, an increase of 4.284 million barrels from the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, an increase of 3.524 million barrels from the previous week. The US gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, a decrease of 268,000 barrels from the previous week. API data shows that as of the week ending on October 10th, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels, the gasoline inventory increased by 2.99 million barrels, and the distillate inventory decreased by 4.79 million barrels [15] 2.6 Consumption: Marginally Weak Demand - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year. The global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [21] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year due to the recovery of demand in the petrochemical raw material industry, recovering from the 420,000 - barrel - per - day level in the second quarter affected by tariffs. However, in the remaining part of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day, far lower than the historical average due to the more severe macro - economic environment and the electrification trend in the transportation sector [21] - The US refinery's crude oil processing volume is 15.13 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17 million barrels per day, and the refinery's operating rate is 85.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [21] 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fees Strengthen Slightly - The average refining profit of Shandong local refineries this period is 225.77 yuan per ton, a decrease of 23.42 yuan per ton from the previous period. The average refining profit of major refineries this period is 547.82 yuan per ton, a decrease of 71.31 yuan per ton from the previous period [23] 2.8 Refinery Operating Rates at a Low Level - As of the week ending on October 9th, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery's operating rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week [26] - This week, the average operating load of major domestic refineries in China is 81.23%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation units of Shandong local refineries is 50.28%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. Overall, both supply and geopolitical factors point to downward pressure on oil prices. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA01 contract oscillated weakly. The weekly opening price was 4506, the highest was 4532, the lowest was 4392, and the closing price was 4402, a weekly decline of 132 or 2.92% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 PX Supply - Demand Marginal Weakness - In terms of PX production capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. In 2024, only Yulongdao has a plan to put into operation a new 3 million - ton production capacity, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to September 2025, domestic PX production was 28.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.82%; imports were 7.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.02%. In August, the PX social inventory was 3.9179 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. This month, PX imports were high and downstream device operating loads were low, leading to an increase in PX social inventory [5] - The domestic PX load decreased by 0.81% to 87.4%, and the Asian PX load increased by 0.96% to 77.92%. This week's PX output was 733,100 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared with last week. During the period, the average PX - N was $225.68/ton, a month - on - month increase of $6.9/ton [5] - This week, Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 - million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month; Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. Overseas, the PX of Indonesia's TPPI refinery was still operating after a fire, and South Korea's SK refinery's PX device was not affected by a fire. Next week, PTT and Satorp will have devices for planned maintenance, and the overseas PX load is expected to decrease. There will be few Asian PX device maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the load of Asian and domestic PX is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with PXN under pressure [6] 2.2 Increased PTA Maintenance Intensity - From January to September 2025, domestic PTA production was 54.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This week, domestic PTA production was 1.3983 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with last week and 7,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. The average PTA cost was 4,234.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 127.46 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 277.73 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton; the average processing fee was 182.27 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 17.54 yuan/ton [8] - This week, Hengli Petrochemical reduced production as planned, Yisheng New Materials increased load in the middle of the week, the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased, and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device slightly reduced load. The domestic supply met expectations, and the domestic overall production inventory decreased this period. The current PTA social inventory is 3.1984 million tons, a decrease of 61,200 tons or 1.88% compared with last week. With the recovery of some PTA device loads and news of new device commissioning, the PTA spot basis weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches the risk - free arbitrage point and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce device loads, the subsequent basis decline space is limited [8] 2.3 High Polyester Operating Load - From January to September 2025, domestic polyester production was 58.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export of polyester products was 91.18 million tons (accounting for 18% of the same - period polyester production), a year - on - year increase of 15.8% [12] - This week, China's polyester industry output was 155,400 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 0.04% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. Longzhong predicts that next week, China's polyester industry output is expected to be around 155000 - 156000 tons, a slight increase compared with this period. At present, after the previous device commissioning and the restart of long - stopped devices, the load will gradually increase, and there are also device commissioning plans next week. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will increase slightly next week [12] - As of October 17, the weekly average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of October 17, the inventory of grey cloth of East China weaving enterprises was 30.0 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 day. As of October 17, the inventories of POY, FDY, bottle chips, and staple fibers were 16.8 days, 22.1 days, 16.0 days, and 6.1 days respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms first decreased and then increased, the downstream polyester load was relatively stable, the market production and sales structure was differentiated, the filament inventory accumulated, and the staple fiber inventory decreased month - on - month. However, recently, trade frictions have escalated, terminal export orders have declined. As the terminal demand enters the off - season, it is expected that the loads of filaments and staple fibers may decline, and the load increase of bottle chips is limited due to poor efficiency and the off - season [12][13] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite many PTA maintenance expectations, polyester load is expected to decline during the traditional off - season, so PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. Considering the cost side, the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is oscillating weakly. Overall, the fundamental driving force of PTA is weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The reports cover various commodities, including coal, metals, agricultural products, and energy. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors. Market participants should pay attention to factors such as policy changes, geopolitical events, and macro - economic conditions [1][3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Different commodities show different price trends. Some are expected to have short - term support or upward movement, while others may face downward pressure or continue to fluctuate [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Coal and Coking Products** - **Coking Coal**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 13 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the coal price in some producing areas continues to rebound. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and limited production increase space, the coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short term [1]. **Metals** - **Gold**: With the Trump administration relaxing tariff policies, the tariff disturbance may weaken, and precious metals may face a further correction risk [1]. - **Silver**: The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year. The spot price is high, but it may face a correction risk after the market has priced in the Fed's October interest rate cut [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports has increased, and the daily port clearance volume has decreased. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not prominent. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: After the National Day, the demand for rebar has recovered, and the supply has decreased while the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level. With policy support, the futures price may repair upwards from a low level [3]. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: The domestic feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have decreased. Due to strong domestic demand, short - term bean No. 2 may stabilize in a volatile manner, and the domestic new - season soybeans may have upward space [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 has increased significantly. The market lacks clear news guidance, and the short - term supply - demand trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, supply from Russia and the US is high, and global demand growth is slowing. Geopolitical factors also suppress oil prices. However, if the Sino - US trade negotiation reaches more consensus, the oil price may be supported in the short term [8]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery's production is stable, and the demand is affected by weather. The demand and production may show a seasonal decline, and the price is under pressure [9]. **Chemical Products** - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement has put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support has weakened. The rubber price may further decline, but the inventory decline in Qingdao Port limits the decline. It is recommended to operate cautiously [10]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC has decreased from a high level, and the production is expected to increase. The demand is picking up steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is stable and slightly weak. The supply is high, and the downstream glass industry has stable production lines and general procurement sentiment. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The LLDPE production has decreased, but the market supply is still sufficient. The downstream demand increases slowly, and the cost support is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. **Financial Products** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the government's measures to boost the economy and the central bank's loose monetary policy, the medium - and long - term bond market is bearish. The bond market operation is difficult, and a mid - term oscillatory thinking is recommended [5]. **Livestock** - **Pigs**: The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The supply is expected to be loose in the short term, and the price will be suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [5].

Group 1: PVC - Current price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; capacity utilization rate is 82.63%, up 1.21% week - on - week; Jin Yuyuan's 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device is expected to end maintenance this week; social inventory is 103.38 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 622 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene method is - 538 yuan/ton; domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises' operation rate is 40.43%, up 1.3% month - on - month [1] - Supply is at a high level, production enterprises are in concentrated maintenance, new devices are put into operation, overall supply is abundant, domestic and foreign demand is rising steadily, social inventory has decreased slightly, and cost support is weak recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 4765 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1] Group 2: Gold - International gold price's upward trend continues, and spot gold has broken through $4300 per ounce for the first time, setting a new record high. Multiple institutions have issued risk warnings [2] - When multiple institutions issue risk warnings, it indicates that the market is overheated and risks are approaching. Uncertainties in the US government shutdown and Fed rate cuts have led to the continuous rise of gold, and the weakening of the US dollar index may provide some upward momentum for gold, but it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [2] Group 3: Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 10, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, up 4.284 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, up 3.524 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, down 268,000 barrels; the average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, up 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year; the average daily production in the four weeks ending October 10 was 13.568 million barrels, 1.6% higher than the same period last year [4] - The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and reduced geopolitical risks. The fundamental driving force of crude oil is weak [4] Group 4: Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price is 50 Thai baht/kg; Hainan glue for whole - milk production price is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,400 yuan/ton; Cambodia's latex exports from January to September 2025 decreased 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [5] - Natural rubber is weakly declining, the spot is relatively strong, and the basis is converging. After the future rainfall in the producing areas eases, the incremental expectation is strong. Downstream tire enterprises are currently digesting inventory. Affected by the US tariff policy, the short - term driving force is weak. The low annual overall production of rubber and low inventory in China limit the decline of rubber. Recently, macro - factors have a greater impact than fundamentals, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Group 5: PTA - Taiwan, China's PX is reported at $783 per ton, PXN is $232 per ton, East China PTA is reported at 4350 yuan/ton, and PTA cash - flow cost is 4325 yuan/ton; PTA social inventory is 3.2595 million tons, down 25,500 tons from the previous statistical period; PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%; polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.78% [6] - PTA supply is expected to shrink; demand is expected to be dragged down by the tariff policy. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, which restricts the rebound space of PTA processing fees. Considering the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China remains at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is fluctuating weakly. Overall, the short - term downstream demand expectation and crude oil have a greater impact on PTA prices [6] Group 6: Live Pigs - On October 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.41, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.44. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.02 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous day; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous day [6] - At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still relatively prominent. The slaughter volume of large - scale farms remains high. Although the transaction in some areas has improved supported by second - fattening, the market supply has not decreased, and the slaughter demand has not increased significantly. The possibility of a sharp short - term rebound is small. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for stabilization [6] Group 7: Palm Oil - From October 1 to 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased 0.21% month - on - month, and production increased 6.86% month - on - month [7] - Malaysian palm oil production has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is still inventory pressure in October. The reduction of the reference price for November also reflects this. Palm oil prices are under pressure. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil has not changed, and there is strong support below. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Group 8: Soybeans - The monthly soybean crushing volume in September released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) far exceeded market expectations, reaching 197.863 million bushels, up 4.24% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year, setting the fourth - highest monthly record and the highest record for the same period in history. Analysts had expected a crushing volume of 186.34 million bushels before the report [8] - The stronger - than - expected soybean crushing volume in September has alleviated concerns about trade tensions. Bean No. 2 is expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - news. Bean No. 1 is mainly stable and may have upward potential [8] Group 9: Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6565 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day; polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 77.66%, up 0.39% from the previous day; the average operation rate of downstream industries is 51.85%, up 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; commercial inventory is 985,200 tons, down 26,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory of two major state - owned petrochemical companies' polyolefins is 800,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous day [8] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly eased, demand is flat, commercial inventory has decreased, the spot trading atmosphere has weakened, merchants continue to sell at low prices, and cost support is weak. It is expected that the PP 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6660 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8] Group 10: Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1246 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the float glass operation rate is 76.35%, up 0.34% week - on - week; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.2756 million weight boxes, up 2.31% month - on - month; the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.4 days, down 5.5% month - on - month; from January to August, the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, down 17% year - on - year [9] - Currently, the profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, daily melting volume has rebounded slightly, downstream deep - processing enterprises' orders are still weak, float glass enterprises' inventory has increased, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and most raw - sheet enterprises have poor production and sales. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1160 level. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for a pull - back and stabilization [9] Group 11: Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties show differentiation. The overnight variety remains flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety rises 0.5 BP to 1.419%; the 14 - day variety falls 0.9 BP to 1.443%, hitting a new low since January 2023; the 1 - month variety remains flat at 1.559% [9] - There is a differentiation between short - term and long - term in the capital market, indicating short - term capital tightness but loose capital expectations. Attention should be paid to the logic of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw. The risk - aversion sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has increased, which supports the bond market. However, it may still fluctuate in the medium term [9] Group 12: Silver - Fed officials have different views on the pace of rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious rate - cut step of 25 basis points each time to deal with the weak labor market, while Acting Fed Governor Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut. The core of the disagreement lies in the speed of policy adjustment [10] - The Fed's divergence has increased, but a rate cut in October is basically priced in. The weakening of the US economy is negative for silver, but the strength of gold has created conditions for a short - squeeze in silver. The upward momentum of silver is limited. It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [10]