Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak balance with supply and demand, and the cost still provides support. Next week, steel prices may adjust within a narrow range, and the pattern of repeated ups and downs will continue. The market should be treated as weakly volatile, and patiently wait for opportunities for a bottom - rebound [29]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Market sentiment was average, with the game between long - and short - term factors and fundamentals. This week, steel prices showed a volatile downward trend, and the price center of gravity shifted down compared with last week. The national average price of rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire decreased by 9 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in the Northeast region, all other regions declined slightly, with a decline ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2][3] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, supporting the construction of world - class city clusters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, and the total issuance of local government bonds was 670.36 billion yuan. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. In mid - August 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased, and the estimated national daily output of steel also increased. As of the week of August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal increased. Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates [5][6] 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94,400 tons, lower than last week's 94,800 tons. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to be weak, downstream terminals purchased on demand, and merchants' willingness to replenish inventory was not strong. The short - term market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [9] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current steel demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term. The increase in construction steel output is expected to slow down. The steel market is in a weak balance, and the cost still provides support. The steel price may adjust within a narrow range next week. From the perspective of the disk, most black commodities closed down, and the iron ore main contract rose slightly. The rebar main contract 2601 showed a downward trend, with the center of gravity shifting down. It should be treated as weakly volatile, waiting for a bottom - rebound opportunity. Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - screw spread, and steel profit, and a wide - straddle consolidation for option strategies [29]

Group 1: Coal and Steel - The daily coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.64 to 46.09 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.99%, a decrease of 1.18%. Coke inventory increased by 0.48 to 610.07 tons, and the available days increased by 0.02 to 10.78 days. Coking coal inventory decreased by 0.46 to 811.85 tons, and the available days increased by 0.18 to 13.25 days. Injection coal inventory decreased by 0.14 to 423.32 tons, and the available days increased by 0.08 to 12.37 days. Before the parade, coal mine production tightened, and coke production declined slightly under production restrictions in some areas. The short - term coal futures market is supported, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery after the parade [1]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared to last year. The steel industry has policy support, but the inventory of rebar is accumulating. The decline space of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [4]. Group 2: Livestock - As of August 29, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.37 kg, a decrease of 0.01 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate was 30.18%, an increase of 0.04%. The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 210.07 yuan per head, an increase of 4.66 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 7.85 yuan per head, an increase of 1.34 yuan per head. The price of piglets was 342.86 yuan per head, a decrease of 21.43 yuan per head. The price of live pigs rebounded slightly due to reduced supply from some scale enterprises and increased demand. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions and for farmers to choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [2]. Group 3: Minerals - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9007.19 tons, a decrease of 58.28 tons from the previous period; the daily consumption of imported ore in the current sample steel mills was 296.10 tons, a decrease of 1.74 tons from the previous period; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.42 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous period. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased slightly. The total supply is relatively stable, and the demand for iron ore is expected to recover after the parade [5]. Group 4: Oils and Fats - Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in September at $954.71 per ton, higher than $910.91 in August. The export tax on crude palm oil will increase from $74 per ton in August to $124 per ton. Palm oil prices are expected to decline in the short term and operate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to the approaching consumption season [6]. Group 5: Chemicals - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 7 yuan per ton to 2225 yuan per ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate increased by 1.07% to 84.84%. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 7 yuan per ton to 7354 yuan per ton. The weekly LLDPE output decreased by 2.63% to 26.83 tons. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in China decreased to 1290 yuan per ton. The weekly soda ash output decreased by 6.78% to 71.91 tons. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [9]. Group 6: Precious Metals - The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year, reaching a new high since February 2025. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence and the risk of stagflation in the US economy have increased the safe - haven property of gold. The mid - term trend of gold needs further observation [10]. Group 7: Energy - As of August 29, the number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 1 to 412. OPEC+ will maintain a large increase in production in September, and the demand for traditional fuels in the US is expected to weaken. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10][12]. - The cumulative asphalt output in August was 245 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from the previous month. The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to reduced demand caused by rainfall [12]. Group 8: Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht per kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.5 Thai baht per kg. The supply of rubber is increasing, but the demand has not improved significantly. The rubber market is expected to fluctuate [13].

Report on Investment Analysis of Multiple Commodities 1. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market for various commodities shows a mixed picture with different factors influencing each commodity's price movement. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data releases [1][2][4]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most commodities are expected to experience short - term price fluctuations, with some showing a tendency to trade within a range, while others may have a slightly bullish or bearish bias depending on their specific fundamentals [1][4][5]. 2. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **Gold**: A lawsuit by Fed理事Lisa Cook regarding the Fed's independence could impact the market. If the Fed loses, concerns about US stagflation may increase, which is positive for gold. Fed rate - cut expectations have led to a short - term gold rebound, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [2]. - **Silver**: US Q2 GDP growth was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. After the data release, risk appetite increased, and combined with Fed rate - cut expectations, silver is expected to trade with a slightly bullish bias [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With increased end - of - month production restrictions at Tangshan steel mills, iron ore demand has decreased. Overseas shipments and arrivals have declined slightly, and port inventories are expected to increase. The price is expected to trade in a range, supported by post - parade restocking expectations [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Rebar production has increased, inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, and apparent demand has slightly recovered. The supply is high, and demand is weak. However, with compressed steel mill profits and improved export orders, the rebar futures may trade in a narrow range [5]. - **Copper (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in metals category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price movements are uncertain due to the Russia - Ukraine situation. In the long - term, the oil market faces significant supply pressure. Currently, the production increase expectation is pitted against stable inventories, and the price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11][12]. - **Natural Gas (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in energy category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: Due to expected increases in new soybean production and a weakening futures market, the spot price of soybeans is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term. Policy regulation and terminal restocking demand need to be closely monitored [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil prices have dragged down the entire oil market. Despite high - volume low - price replenishment in the market, the price of palm oil is expected to experience a short - term correction and trade with a bearish bias [8]. - **Corn (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Wheat (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Rice (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Others** - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed significantly. Supply is restricted by over - production checks and heavy rainfall in Shanxi, while demand is under pressure due to pre - parade environmental production restrictions at coking plants and steel mills. The price is expected to trade in a range [1]. - **Long - and Medium - term Treasury Bonds**: Multiple small and medium - sized banks have cut RMB deposit rates, which is beneficial for liquidity. In the context of increased risk appetite and a strong stock market, long - term bonds are expected to trade with a bearish bias [5]. - **Rubber**: Supply is in an increasing phase but is affected by weather, resulting in slower - than - expected growth. Demand is weak, with a decline in tire production and high inventory pressure. The price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **PTA**: PTA production and social inventories have decreased, and downstream polyester demand has shown a slight recovery. However, the sustainability of the demand increase is uncertain. Given the weakening PX supply - demand and crude oil prices, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has increased, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The inland market is weak, while the port market has stable basis and acceptable trading volume. The price is expected to trade in a range, and short - positions should be held with caution [10]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The price of LLDPE has been weak, production has decreased, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Cost support has strengthened. The price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The production of soda ash has decreased, and inventories have also declined slightly. The float glass market is stable, and downstream demand is mainly for low - price replenishment. The price of soda ash is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Live Hogs**: The shrinkage of farms has led to a slight improvement in low - price transactions. With the current low price, there is a growing sentiment of expecting a price increase. The price may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to take short - long positions. Farmers can choose the right time for hedging [6].

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends, including short - term oscillations, short - term weakening, and short - term rebounds, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market expectations [1][3][4]. - The stock market has potential for continuous growth in the second half of the year, while long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively due to factors like liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, with a 0.47% week - on - week increase. The daily output of clean coal was 260,000 tons, up 300 tons week - on - week, and the inventory was 2.895 million tons, down 54,000 tons week - on - week. Due to the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of coke price increases, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 36.52%, with a 0.34% week - on - week increase. The daily output was 16,205 tons, up 0.5% week - on - week. The cost side is supported, but the downstream demand is expected to decline during the military parade, and the supply is increasing. The short - term price decline is limited, but the medium - to - long - term price will tend to decline [3]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: In the week ending August 22, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 1.3439 million barrels per day. The weekly crude oil shipments from Russian ports decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day. The inventory decline was slightly lower than market expectations. The short - term trend is oscillating weakly [1]. Metal Products - **Rebar**: On August 27, the domestic steel market declined weakly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 20 yuan to 3,010 yuan per ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,334 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. Supply is expected to shrink due to environmental protection restrictions, and demand is currently weak but expected to improve in September. The steel price will oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silver**: The remarks from the New York Fed President opened up the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The overnight dollar decline boosted precious metals, and silver is still oscillating upward [7]. - **Gold**: The influence on the Fed's independence and the market's concern about stagflation in the U.S. are positive for gold. The short - term rebound is due to the expectation of an interest rate cut, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The predicted export volume of Brazilian soybeans from August 24 to 30 is 1.6307 million tons, down from 1.8459 million tons last week. The domestic soybean price is currently fluctuating within a narrow range. With the upcoming increase in new soybean supply and limited demand, the domestic soybean price will remain weakly stable in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 was 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month. The financial market weakness and the decline in crude oil prices are suppressing the palm oil price. The short - term trend is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand are rising steadily. The export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber from Vietnam in the first seven months decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but the export volume to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The domestic natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons, a 1.1% decline. The short - term adjustment is followed by a medium - term upward - oscillating trend [4]. - **Pig**: On August 27, the national average price of pork in agricultural product wholesale markets decreased by 0.4%. The national pig price has stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term market is expected to have a small - scale rebound, but the amplitude is limited. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and pig farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 22 yuan to 2,250 yuan per ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate increased by 1.36% to 83.76%. The port inventory increased, and the expected import volume in September remains high. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2,395 yuan. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash nationwide is 1,294 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently. The weekly output increased by 1.33%, and the inventory increased by 0.9%. The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is oscillating weakly. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1,305 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene decreased by 16 yuan to 6,994 yuan per ton. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.2%. The commercial inventory decreased, but it is still higher than the same period in the previous two years. The market price is oscillating weakly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 7,040 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [10]. Others - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months. The profit of high - tech manufacturing increased significantly. The stock market has potential for continuous growth, and long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively. It is recommended to short long - term bonds at key resistance levels [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In 2025, the bottle chip capacity is still growing, with an expected growth rate of about 9.1%. The current production is stable, and the downstream industries have stable or slightly increasing operating rates. The market is in the peak consumption season for soft drinks, and with the reduction in production by major manufacturers, the inventory is slowly decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate upward [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market for various commodities shows different trends, with most facing short - term uncertainties and being influenced by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, and policy - related factors. Overall, a cautious approach is recommended for most commodities, including waiting and watching or short - term trading [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Manganese Silicon - The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises reached 46.37%, with daily output at 30,170 tons, a new high in over a year. Cost support has weakened slightly, and demand is expected to decline during the parade. In the short term, the price decline is limited, but there is downward pressure in the medium - to - long term [1]. Crude Oil - US commercial crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories decreased. The key factor is OPEC+'s potential accelerated production increase. The market is currently in a short - term weak and volatile state due to the balance between production increase expectations and stable inventories [1]. Coking Coal - The fundamentals of coking coal have no significant change. Supply is constrained, and demand is under pressure in the short term. The market is in a state of mixed long and short factors, with the futures contract oscillating within a range [3]. Rebar - Steel prices turned from rising to falling. The initial price increase was due to environmental protection restrictions and rising coking futures, but weak demand limited the rebound. Short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Live Pigs - Pig prices continued to fall, but market resistance has emerged after continuous decline. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging [4]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August. The market is affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel blending exemption policy. Domestic import profits are good, and the short - term market is volatile. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. Soybeans - Brazilian soybean, soybean meal, and corn export forecasts have decreased. The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term due to upcoming new - bean supply and limited demand [5]. PTA - PTA operating rate decreased due to maintenance. Polyester inventory decreased, and demand is expected to increase during the traditional peak season, but the sustainability is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Rubber - Rubber production in Thailand and other regions is affected by rain, and demand from the domestic tire industry is weak. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - term trading [6]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [7]. Soda Ash - The price of soda ash is weak, production has increased slightly, and inventory has risen. The float glass market is stable, and downstream procurement is mainly for low - price needs. The 01 contract is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. Polypropylene - Polypropylene production is stable, supply is abundant, and commercial inventory has decreased but remains high. The market price is volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities including methanol, gold, iron ore, etc., analyzing their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market factors [1][2][4] Summaries by Commodity Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2297 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 83.76%, up 1.36%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.81%, up 1.04% weekly. The port inventory and production enterprise inventory are increasing. It is expected to run in a short - term shock, with support at 2410. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [1] Gold - Tariff disturbances still exist. After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market started the interest - rate cut expectation. The short - term gold has a rebound demand, may be shock - bullish in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term. Pay attention to the seesaw effect between the US dollar and gold [2] Iron Ore - The inventory of 45 ports is 13845.20 tons, up 25.93 tons; the daily dispatch volume is 325.74 tons, down 8.93 tons. The current price may run in a shock adjustment. Focus on the implementation of environmental protection restrictions in the north [4] Coke - Mainstream coke enterprises launched the 8th price increase. Supply has increased slightly but is limited by high costs. Demand is strong as steel mills' profits are good. After the price increase, production will increase slightly. With the upcoming parade production restrictions, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the short - term, and the futures price is still supported [4] Rebar - In the high - temperature and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is slow, but the temporary production restriction expectation and the "double - coke" futures increase boost the market sentiment. The steel price may run in a shock in the short - term [5] Soda Ash - The mainstream price is 1297 yuan/ton, showing a weak shock. The weekly output is 77.14 tons, up 1.33%; the manufacturer's inventory is up 0.9%. The domestic soda ash market is weak and volatile. It is expected to run in a shock, with support at 1300. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Polypropylene - The mainstream price is 7010 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate is 80.46%, up 1.15%; the downstream average start - up rate is 49.53%, up 0.18 percentage points weekly. The commercial inventory is 80.06 tons, down 2.68 tons. It is expected to run in a shock, with support at 7065. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [7] Live Pigs - The price is stable and weak. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, but there is support from storage sentiment and school - starting stockpiling. Short - term long positions can be held, with support at 13700 for the LH2511 contract. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9] Palm Oil - Malaysia's exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9%. The inventory in key domestic areas decreased by 5.70% weekly. The domestic demand is restricted by the soybean - palm oil price difference. It is expected to run in a shock in the short - term [10] Soybeans - The port inventory is 889.8 tons, down 2.80 tons weekly. The domestic soybean price is fluctuating slightly and is weak and stable in the short - term due to the upcoming new - bean supply increase and limited demand [10] Crude Oil - India's imports in July decreased by 8.7%. There are talks about the Russia - Ukraine issue and the Iran nuclear issue. It may increase production in the fourth quarter. The price has rebounded. It is recommended to do short - term long for now [11] Rubber - The supply in Thailand and domestic areas is affected by rain, while that in Cote d'Ivoire is normal. The demand from the domestic tire industry is weak. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long cautiously around 15500 [12] Asphalt - Supply is shrinking, with the output down 4 tons to 54.8 tons and the capacity utilization rate down 2.2 percentage points to 30.7%. Demand is weak. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy and not to chase high in the short - term [13] Short - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank's continuous liquidity injection is beneficial to short - term bonds. The stock market has limited upward momentum in the short - term, which is beneficial to the bond market. It is recommended to do intraday operations on short - term bonds and short long - term bonds [13] Silver - The issue of Trump removing Cook from the Federal Reserve needs continuous observation. The Fed's independence is challenged. After Powell's speech, the market has an interest - rate cut expectation. The silver price is shock - bullish [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating bearish, pay attention to the stock-bond seesaw" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock-bond seesaw remains the dominant factor, and attention should be paid to long-term bond opportunities. The main policy tone in the second half of the year is a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Although counter-cyclical adjustments such as promoting consumption and major project construction may continue to be introduced, the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited. Liquidity is expected to be loose, which may intensify stock market fluctuations and short-term bond market volatility, making short-term bond market operations more difficult. The supply-demand contradiction in the long-term bond market may be more prominent, with more obvious negative factors [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led the long-term bond market to effectively break below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. However, in the context of loose liquidity, this logic becomes less obvious, making market operations difficult. The Politburo meeting in July set the policy tone for the second half of the year, and the stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic in the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage and maintain ample liquidity. In August, the central bank will conduct a 6000 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan, and a 3000 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase net investment, resulting in a total net investment of 6000 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity for the month. A new policy-based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure. The central bank has increased the re-lending quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. In July, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In July, M2 increased by about 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by about 5.6%, and M0 by about 11.8% [13][15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The official non-manufacturing PMI was 50.1, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4 percentage points. China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, both exceeding expectations. In July, the total goods trade import and export value reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Although the economic data shows certain resilience, the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter-cyclical adjustments need to be continuously strengthened [16] 3.2 Policy Aspect - At the end of July, the broad money M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The narrow money M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The difference between M2 and M1 growth rates was 3.2%, narrowing slightly. The social financing stock reached 431.26 trillion yuan, a 9% increase from July last year, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The new social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, 389.3 billion yuan more than last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has been continuously declining, and the cost of funds has decreased. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage. A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may further open up space for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. According to the Politburo meeting in July, the liquidity in the second half of the year will likely remain moderately loose, and the probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low [18] 3.4 Supply and Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade-in in July this year and formulate a monthly and weekly usage plan for national subsidy funds. The support from the ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal this year is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields. The issuance of special bonds has also accelerated recently [21] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term shock range and declined, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market than the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased. Recently, the stock-bond ratio has slightly decreased but is still in a high range compared to the previous period. Short-term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long-term bonds are more significantly affected by the stock-bond seesaw [23] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, and loose liquidity may be the main policy tone in the second half of the year. Loose liquidity combined with the expectation of a rising stock market may intensify stock market fluctuations and short-term bond market volatility. The stock-bond seesaw logic remains the main logic, and the logic of long-term bonds is relatively clear, so it is recommended to pay attention [26]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, the steel price may fluctuate and strengthen. The fundamentals need time to improve continuously. The construction steel output may continue to decline slightly due to seasonal factors, while the output of the five major steel products may rise slightly in the short - term. The bottom of building material demand may have appeared and will gradually recover later, and manufacturing demand remains resilient due to export support. However, the steel price lacks strong driving forces and is expected to stay within a certain range [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review This week, coking coal prices increased twice, strengthening market expectations. But due to weak fundamentals, market sentiment returned to rationality, and prices showed a volatile downward trend. The average national price of rebar decreased by 49 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire rods decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The State Council executive meeting pointed out that policies on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in have achieved obvious results, and further policy support is needed to release domestic demand potential [6]. - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months in August [6]. - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [6]. - In July, the wholesale volume of passenger cars reached a record high, and the production of various household appliances showed different trends [7]. - From August 11 - 17, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly [7]. - In July, the exports of iron ore and spodumene concentrate from Port Hedland decreased, while manganese ore exports increased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis The average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 9.48 tons, lower than last week's 10.23 tons. Steel demand in the off - season remained weak, with downstream terminals purchasing on demand and merchants having low restocking willingness, resulting in strong short - term market wait - and - see sentiment [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Supply: Construction steel output may continue to decline slightly due to seasonal factors, while the output of the five major steel products may rise slightly in the short - term [29]. - Demand: The suppression of construction steel demand by high - temperature weather continues, but the bottom of building material demand may have appeared and will gradually recover. Manufacturing demand remains resilient due to export support [29]. - Market: The overall black market closed slightly down. The rebar main contract 10 is expected to stay within the 3050 - 3250 range next week. Attention should be paid to the support around 3100 and the weekly pressure around 3165 [29]. - Investment Strategy: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - delivery arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coil - rebar spread, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for option strategies, use， wide - straddle consolidation [2][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the coking coal prices in the domestic market fluctuated. The seventh round of coke price increase was fully implemented, strengthening cost support. However, due to policy regulation and insufficient downstream demand, the futures prices were under pressure. The current market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. The supply is slightly recovering, but still affected by disruptions. The demand is supported by the rigid needs and low inventories of coking enterprises. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent for the time being. It is recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations for single - side trading, and to mainly stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit trading [2][4][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal prices in the domestic market fluctuated this week. The seventh round of coke price increase was fully implemented, enhancing cost support. But due to policy regulation and insufficient downstream demand follow - up, the futures prices were under pressure [2][4] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On August 22, Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, emphasizing further strengthening of fiscal, tax, and financial policy support for large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies [6] - The August Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for the third consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5% [6] - The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% applicable tax rate [6] - In July, the national passenger car manufacturers' wholesale volume reached 2.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. From January to July, the cumulative wholesale volume was 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [7] - From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.037 million tons, a decrease of 178,000 tons compared to the previous period [7] - In July 2025, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland in Australia decreased to 4.59693 million tons, lithium spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 11,965 tons, and manganese ore exports increased to 18,160 tons [7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to their own underground reasons, while most maintained normal production. Due to weakened downstream demand and a slower procurement pace, coal washing plants and traders became more cautious in procurement, and market trading activity declined [2] - On the demand side, after the seventh round of coke price increase, steel mills had high production enthusiasm due to profit support. The steel mill segment showed a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations". Coke prices were supported by demand resilience, but the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies would limit their upward space [2] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - On the supply side, some coal mines that had stopped or reduced production resumed operations, but there were still new production stoppages and reductions in some areas. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port increased by 239 vehicles to 1,263 vehicles [30] - On the demand side, coke production increased slightly, but coking enterprises maintained a demand - based procurement strategy, and upstream coal mines began to accumulate a small amount of inventory [30] - Overall, the supply recovery was limited due to continuous disruptions, and the demand was supported by the rigid needs and low inventories of coking enterprises. The supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It was recommended to mainly conduct range - bound operations for single - side trading, and to mainly stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit trading [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the accelerated market for interest rate cut expectations in September, risk - averse assets will be suppressed, while silver, which is positively correlated with risk appetite, will have a catch - up rally, and the increase of silver will be greater than that of gold [2][28] - The US economy is under pressure despite some positive economic data, and the US economic data shows a mixed picture with high economic resilience [3][16] - The RMB exchange rate has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited, so it is not a key consideration [4][24] Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - In the short - term, gold and silver may rise synchronously under the impetus of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. In the medium - term, their trends will diverge, with gold in a high - level shock and silver entering an accelerated upward trend. However, the rise of silver will be affected by the short - term fluctuations of gold [10] 2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting increased the market's bet on a September interest rate cut, and the market fully digested the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [13] - US retail sales in July had a relatively large month - on - month increase for two consecutive months, and the year - on - year increase was also significant. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached a new high since June, and the number of continued jobless claims reached the highest level since November 2021. The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI initial value reached the highest level since May 2022 [13][15] - Russia is ready to negotiate on the Ukraine issue in various forms, and Putin proposed to raise the level of the direct negotiation delegation between Russia and Ukraine [15] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, and economic activity growth slowed down in the first half of the year, with inflation slightly high and high uncertainty in the economic outlook [15] 3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows a mixed picture. Although there are some positive signs in retail sales and manufacturing PMI, the employment situation is deteriorating, and inflation remains high, indicating that the US economy still has high resilience [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing tariffs on some EU goods and the EU making corresponding concessions and procurement plans. Trump and Putin's meeting may have a positive impact on global political stability. Trump also imposed additional tariffs on Indian and some high - tech products [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US employment data is poor, the non - manufacturing index is weak, but the service industry PMI is at a high level. Crude oil prices are affected by production cuts and geopolitical situations, and the prices of US stocks, copper, and crude oil may strengthen further due to the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Although China's economic data in July is weak, the inflow of foreign capital and the rise of the stock market support the RMB exchange rate. Its impact on gold is limited [4][24] 4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes that a September interest rate cut by the Fed is highly likely, and the market will focus on the magnitude of the interest rate cut. Silver will have a catch - up rally, and its increase will be greater than that of gold [2][28]