生猪产业日报 2025-07-21 整体以宽幅震荡走势看待。短期价格受出栏和二育出入场节奏影响较大，或有所反复。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14365 | 230 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 64259 | 600 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 284 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手 ...

交一般，下游仍处于观望状态。铅酸蓄电池虽涨价，但经销商去库缓慢，抑制了电池厂开工积极性，导致 今年季节性旺季效果暂未显现。需求端对沪铅价格的拉动作用依旧有限。库存方面，海外库存上行；国内 库存小幅上行，仓单上行，整体需求放缓。从铅精矿加工角度来看，整体影响有限。综上所述，沪铅整体 | | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16960 | 140 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1977.5 | -0.5 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -35 | -10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 103586 | 3492 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -1236 | -1100 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 60059 | -25 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 62335 | 7186 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 270950 | 1725 | | | 上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with higher trading volume. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals is about to be introduced. The weekly output of rebar continued to decline, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 45.83%. During the consumption off - season, terminal demand was average, social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory ended its consecutive decline. Overall, the apparent demand for construction steel decreased during the off - season, but positive policy expectations in the macro - aspect, combined with rising furnace materials, supported the upward movement of rebar futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation strategy is to conduct bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; the trading volume was 2,095,912 lots, up 20,122 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 5,009 lots, down 3,976 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 86,534 tons, down 897 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 170 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,456 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 146 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 16.88 million tons, up 300,000 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - On July 21, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The egg price has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding side has been in a loss state. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old chicken culling has accelerated, reducing the inventory expectation. The egg production rate in some areas has declined due to high - temperature weather, and the short - term market supply pressure has eased. The terminal demand is gradually picking up, which promotes the egg price to rebound from the low level. Boosted by the stabilization and rebound of the spot market, the downward trend of the futures market has also slowed down, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3636 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 41; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17119 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 11508; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 19 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 26; the futures open interest of the active contract is 244865 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 13047; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 3.24 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21; the basis (spot - futures) is - 394 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 165 [2]. Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 110.89 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 108.68 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 11.92; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan/chick, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the new chick index nationwide is 106.78 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 31.9; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 9.6 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.4; the average age of culled hens nationwide is 506 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.8 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day increase of 0.14; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.41 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day increase of 0.05; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.57 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day increase of 0.41; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.95 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7886 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 289 [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.49 yuan/kg, up 0.43 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 6.03 yuan/kg, up 0.35; in Guangdong, it is 7.40 yuan/kg, up 0.60; in Beijing, it is 6.34 yuan/kg, up 0.30. Currently, the laying hen inventory is at a high level, the pressure of newly - laid eggs from previously replenished laying hens is large, and the egg supply is relatively sufficient. High - temperature and high - humidity weather increases the egg storage cost, downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, the egg price remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding side is in a loss state [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the monsoon season brings a good supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries, with a loose supply expectation suppressing raw sugar prices. However, Coca - Cola's switch to using sucrose and a significant year - on - year increase in China's raw sugar imports bring some support from the demand side, causing short - term prices to hover at low levels. - Domestically, there is a divergence in the strength of internal and external prices. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the import pressure is released. In June, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, which suppresses sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up, providing some support for prices. Overall, domestic demand is recovering, the performance of sugar futures prices is stronger than that of the external market, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the overall trend is regarded as volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,839 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 13 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 337,153 lots, with an increase of 7,565 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 21,437, a decrease of 40; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,908 lots, an increase of 6,702 lots. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,606 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton. [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,356 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.16%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 6.16%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.25%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.05%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points. [2] Industry News - According to traders, from January 20th to mid - July this year, India's sugar exports were around 700,000 tons. - Internationally, the monsoon season has come, and the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good. The expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, Coca - Cola's switch to using sucrose and a significant year - on - year increase in China's raw sugar imports bring some support from the demand side. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Raw material butadiene price support for butadiene rubber has weakened, and domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - late July. Downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices, which may lead to higher inventory of production enterprises. The tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has recovered, and the orders in the middle and late stages are expected to increase slightly, with the overall short - term start - up rate expected to have little fluctuation. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,250 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,995 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan; the position of the main contract is 14,993, down 2,221; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The butadiene production capacity is 147,700 tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 67.96%, down 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, down 3,600 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, down 0.33 percentage points; the production profit is - 632 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The production of full - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces this month, up 800,000 pieces; the production of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces this month, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2] Industry News - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.13%, up 2.34 percentage points month - on - month and down 11.96 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.98%, up 0.87 percentage points month - on - month and up 3.92 percentage points year - on - year. In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report recommends a light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Currently, the egg market has high egg - laying hen inventory, large new - laying hen pressure from previous replenishment, sufficient egg supply, high storage costs due to hot and humid weather, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. However, as prices reach a low level, the old - hen culling process has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. High temperatures in many areas have led to a decline in the laying rate, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually recovering, and the farmers' expectation of price increases has promoted a low - level rebound in egg prices. The futures market has also seen a slowdown in the decline due to the stabilization of the spot market [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: Light - position trial long on far - month contracts [7]. - Market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed up in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 3595 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 15 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The current situation is a high inventory of egg - laying hens, large new - laying hen pressure, sufficient supply, high storage costs, cautious downstream purchases, low egg prices, and continuous losses for farmers. But as prices are low, the culling of old hens has accelerated, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate, short - term supply pressure has eased, terminal demand is recovering, and this has promoted a rebound in egg prices. The futures decline has also slowed [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and positions: The egg futures 09 contract rose slightly in a volatile manner, with a position of 257,912 lots, an increase of 27,276 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,627, with little change from the previous week's - 28,851 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 3036 yuan/500 kg, an increase of 440 yuan/500 kg from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 559 yuan/ton [24]. - Futures inter - month spread: The egg 9 - 1 spread was - 7 yuan/500 kg, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of July 17, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.63 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.38 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new - chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [40]. - Culling: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled egg - laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the average culling age of hens was 506 days [44]. - Feed raw materials: As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2409.12 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2870 yuan/ton [48]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 11, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.69 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [55]. - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.9 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.2 yuan/kg [57]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons (7.87%) year - on - year compared with 11,784.06 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared with 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both declined. Soda ash futures showed a volatile trend driven by market sentiment, and the subsequent fundamentals remained weak. Glass is expected to achieve a fundamental reversal first. Next week, after the end of the meeting expectations, it is expected to emerge from the trough first. [6] - For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, the demand is expected to hover at the bottom, and the price will continue to be under pressure. For glass, although the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production efforts are expected to increase. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.08% this week, showing a volatile trend. Glass futures fell 0.46%, with a similar trend to soda ash. Glass is expected to achieve a fundamental reversal first. [6] - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is abundant, demand will hover at the bottom, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, supply is at a low level, profit has improved, and resumption of production efforts may increase. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream demand is weak. [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the SA2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1150 - 1280, with stop - loss in the range of 1130 - 1300. For the FG2509 contract, trading in the range of 1020 - 1150 is recommended, with stop - loss in the range of 980 - 1180. [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, soda ash and glass futures prices both closed down. [8] - **Spot Prices**: Soda ash spot prices fell, and the basis continued to weaken. Glass spot prices also fell, but the basis strengthened. [13][18] - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to strengthen this week and is expected to weaken next week. [24] 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Supply**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, putting pressure on prices. One glass production line was cold - repaired, and overall production remained unchanged. [27][40] - **Profit**: The profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises both increased this week, showing signs of recovery. [33] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass all declined this week and are expected to continue to fall next week. [44] - **Inventory**: Domestic soda ash enterprise inventories increased due to insufficient demand, while glass enterprise inventories decreased, and the overall destocking speed was stable. [48] - **Downstream Orders**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders declined slightly and were at a historical low. [54]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.18」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上行，主力合约EC2508收涨16.44%，远月合约收涨7-16%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为2421.94，较上周回升163.9点，环比上行7.3%，持续回升的现货指标说明头部船司此前的宣涨行为 大概率能成功落地，市场对旺季运价担忧减弱，叠加主力合约换月，基差修复逻辑带动期价上涨。6月美国标普全球 综合PMI指数从5月的53小幅回落至52.8。价格压力明显加剧，主要驱动因素包括关税政策的影响，以及融资成本、薪 资压力和燃料价格的上涨。美国6月零售销售数据呈现超预期反弹，环比增速录得0.6%，显著高于市场预期的0.1%， 且较前值-0.9%明显改善。尽管面临贸易政策不确定性，美国消费端仍展现出较强的韧性，部分或于特朗普暂缓关税 条例有关，但考虑到近期关税政策有所加码，后续通胀仍存在上行风险，或对未来数月的零售数据构成一定影响。此 外，欧元区面临美欧关税博弈升级的复 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The supply is expected to remain relatively sufficient in the short - term, and the demand is supported by the high aluminum price and the progress of an electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project in Yunnan [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and temporarily weak demand. The impact of the consumption off - season is intensifying, and industrial inventories are accumulating slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: For the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices; for the Alumina main contract, conduct light - position range - bound trading, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly with a weekly change of - 0.89%, closing at 20,510 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded slightly with a weekly change of + 0.51%, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina's supply may increase slightly and demand remain stable; electrolytic aluminum's supply is stable and demand is weak, with inventory accumulation due to the off - season [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell Shanghai Aluminum main contract lightly at high prices and trade Alumina main contract lightly in a range [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 18, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum futures price was 20,565 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from July 11; LME Aluminum was 2,589 dollars/ton, down 0.65%; Alumina futures price was 3,148 yuan/ton, down 1.47%; Cast Aluminum futures price was 19,875 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [12][16]. - **Futures Ratios and Spreads**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.9 on July 18, up 0.06 from July 11. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,785 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,900 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton [13][24]. - **Futures Positions**: Shanghai Aluminum's open interest was 636,816 lots on July 18, down 7.95% from July 11, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 19,826 lots [19]. - **Spot Prices**: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang increased, while cast aluminum spot prices remained flat. A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 11, with a spot premium of 120 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [26][27][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 17, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 427,200 tons, up 7.95%; SHFE inventory was 108,822 tons, up 5.45%; domestic social inventory was 431,000 tons, up 4.61%. SHFE and LME registered warrants also increased [35]. - **Raw Materials**: Aluminum ore imports in May 2025 were 17.5145 million tons, down 15.28% month - on - month but up 29.43% year - on - year. Nine - port inventory was 24.94 million tons, up 400,000 tons. Scrap aluminum prices in Shandong dropped slightly, and imports and exports increased year - on - year in May [38][44]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; aluminum products production was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; recycled aluminum alloy production was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year; aluminum alloy production was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year. Alumina imports decreased year - on - year in May, while exports increased. Electrolytic aluminum imports increased year - on - year in May [47][54][64]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month. New housing starts and completions decreased year - on - year from January to June 2024. Infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year from January to June 2024, and automobile sales and production in June 2025 increased year - on - year [67][70]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis Given the expected slight decline in aluminum prices, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [72].