Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European line) futures prices showed mixed trends on Monday. The main contract EC2510 fell 2.35%, and the rest of the contracts declined between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2400.50, down 21.40 points from last week, a 0.9% month - on - month decrease. The high - level spot indicators suggest that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented successfully, reducing market concerns about peak - season freight rates. The basis repair logic drives the futures prices to fluctuate at high levels [1]. - The US consumer end shows strong resilience, with the retail sales data in June rebounding unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1% and an improvement from the previous value of - 0.9%. However, due to the recent intensification of tariff policies, there is still an upward risk of inflation, which may affect future retail data [1]. - China's recent counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices have intensified Sino - European trade tensions. Amid trade war uncertainties, the demand expectation for the freight index (European line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate widely. But the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term [1]. - There is still uncertainty during the window period from July to August when European, Japanese, Vietnamese and other countries renegotiate with the US. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 72.3 (up), EC sub - main contract closing price was 2291.900, and the EC2508 - EC2510 spread was +46.30 (up), the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 699.20, up 74.80 from the previous value; the EC contract basis was - 47.44 (down) [1]. - The EC main contract position decreased by 879 to 14037 hands [1]. Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) decreased by 21.44 to 2400.50, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) increased by 35.22 to 1301.81; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 86.39 to 1646.90, and the container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) decreased by 0.06 to 1227.97 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 10.16, CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1803.42, up 77.01; it decreased by 22.00, the Panama - type freight index (daily) was 1919.00, and the Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2052.00, up 14.00 [1]. - The average charter price of Panama - type ships was 14636.00, down 93.00, and the average charter price of Cape - type ships was 22732.00, down 332.00 [1]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, stating that cooperation and win - win are the right path for China and the US, and suppression has no way out. The US should abandon the zero - sum thinking and cancel a series of unreasonable economic and trade restrictive measures against China. Regarding Canada's stricter steel import restrictions, the Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition and will take all necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [1]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring in - depth promotion of product price monitoring, product consistency supervision and inspection, shortening the accounts payable period of suppliers, etc. The central fourth steering group carried out special research and discussions, demanding to effectively standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July and expressed concerns about the private - sector recruitment trend. He also said that if Trump nominated him as the Fed Chairman, he would accept. Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates on social media [1]. - EU member states officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, for the first time sanctioning the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India. This round of sanctions also includes banning activities related to the Nord Stream gas pipeline and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [1]. - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru held talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, requesting to vigorously promote tariff negotiations. Bessent said that it is possible to reach a beneficial trade consensus for both countries, but "reaching a good consensus is more important than reaching a hasty one" [1]

Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is still showing a slowdown trend. After the news of Yajiang today, it has a significant impact on the three major downstream demands of industrial silicon. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 383,296 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3,956 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipt of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50,393 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the basis of the Si main contract is 240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 415 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 10,860 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - A major monomer factory in Shandong had a sudden fire yesterday, and the damage to the device is unknown. It is expected that the quotation in the organic silicon market will rise today. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council approved the establishment of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. Zimbabwe's state - owned mining enterprise Kuvimba Mining House plans to break ground on a concentrator with an annual processing capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate at its Sandawana mine in the third quarter of this year, with a total investment of 270 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into operation in early 2027 [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The current fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is relatively active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants to maintain production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased, the operating rate has increased, and it supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the I2509 contract increased in price with decreasing positions. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, is about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. With the rebound of steel prices, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills stopped falling and rebounded, and the molten iron output exceeded 2.4 million tons, with the support of molten iron demand remaining. Overall, there are positive macro - level expectations, and both finished products and furnace materials are rising in resonance. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at high levels. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 809.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; the position volume was 663,446 lots, down 29,220 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 32.5 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 9,688 lots, down 6,143 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,000.00 lots, unchanged. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.55 US dollars/ton, up 2.78 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 855 yuan/dry ton, up 24 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 837 yuan/dry ton, up 20 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 739 yuan/dry ton, up 9 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.20 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.24, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 825 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 3,109.10 million tons, up 122.00 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,511.80 million tons, down 371.40 million tons. The weekly inventory of iron ore at 47 ports was 14,381.51 million tons, up 34.62 million tons; the weekly inventory of iron ore at sample steel mills was 8,822.16 million tons, down 157.48 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 10,595.00 million tons, up 782.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 21 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 40.64 million tons, up 0.96 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 64.00%, up 1.17 percentage points. The inventory of iron concentrate at 266 mines was 45.25 million tons, down 5.47 million tons. The BDI index was 2,052.00, up 22.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.79 US dollars/ton, up 0.84 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.68 US dollars/ton, up 0.61 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.26%, up 2.12 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.83%, up 1.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.87%, up 1.91 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.79%, up 2.29 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,109.1 million tons, up 122.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,552.0 million tons, down 6.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 1,629.4 million tons, down 108.9 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,443.6 million tons, up 13.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 922.6 million tons, up 102.1 million tons. From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,511.8 million tons, down 371.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,371.2 million tons, down 290.9 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,389.2 million tons, up 241.3 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while demand hovers at the bottom. It reached the upper limit of the daily increase today, and tomorrow's ability to break through the 60 - day average is to be observed, with expected suppression. It is recommended to temporarily hold off on trading the soda ash main contract. - For glass, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production is expected to increase. Currently, it is in a period of structural improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price: 1,295 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; glass main - contract closing price: 1,173 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; soda ash main - contract open interest: 1,252,582 lots, down 297,884 lots; glass main - contract open interest: 1,226,964 lots, down 275,587 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 302,967, up 157,101; glass top 20 net positions: - 293,898, up 125,572. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 290 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 661 tons. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 6 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; glass basis: 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,210 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. - The supply of soda ash has increased, and the profit has rebounded slightly but remains negative. The subsequent soda ash output is expected to decline, and the natural - soda - ash method will gradually become the mainstream [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: The supply remains at a low level, with obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The profit has improved, and the resumption of production is expected to increase. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is under inventory pressure [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. External shipments arriving at the port and entering storage have significantly decreased compared to the previous period, and the rise in rubber prices has boosted tire companies' willingness to replenish stocks, leading to overall outbound volumes exceeding inbound volumes [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, enterprise production schedules are stabilizing, and there is an expected slight increase in orders in the middle and late months, which is expected to have a small positive impact on overall production. Enterprises adjust production flexibly based on their own inventory and order situations. In the short - term, the overall operating rate is expected to have little fluctuation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,250, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 8 - 9 was - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 2,384 lots, and that of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 716 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,770 lots, and those in 20 - number rubber decreased by 2,056 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 20 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber increased by 1,312 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 310 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,762 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 66.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 63.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 48.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.81%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.3%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.29%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.13% [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoints - As of July 16, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 806,000 tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons from the previous week. The sales speed improved slightly compared to the previous week and was similar to the same period last year [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the national apple output in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - The current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts the apple demand, and the price momentum is insufficient. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. It is recommended to focus on the production situation and mainly go short - term long at low prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract was 7,923 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 94,770 lots, a decrease of 3,517 lots [2]. - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 4,977 lots, a decrease of 1,873 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of bagged apples above 80 in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output was 5.12851 million tons, an increase of 168,340 tons. The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg. The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.23 yuan/kg [2] - The total national apple cold storage inventory was 806,000 tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons. The warehouse utilization ratio in Shandong was 12%, a decrease of 1%. The warehouse utilization ratio in Shaanxi decreased by 1%. The monthly apple export volume was 50 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly apple export value was 51.525 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was not clearly presented in the report [2] - The weekly profit of first - and second - grade bagged apple 80 storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 9.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 3.94 yuan/kg [2] - The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong was 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong was 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 17%, a decrease of 0.07%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 17%, a decrease of 0.11% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high due to few short - term maintenance plans and some device restarts, despite a recent slight decrease in daily output caused by new device maintenance. [3] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly with limited rigid demand, and the autumn fertilizer production stage has begun. The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is rising steadily but slowly, and the melamine operating rate has rebounded but may be restricted by weak downstream demand. [3] - Some urea enterprise inventories are decreasing rapidly, and the overall inventory is mainly decreasing, though still much higher than the same period in previous years. The overall inventory reduction speed may weaken as previous export orders enter the later stage, but export expectations still support the price. [3] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1812 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. [3] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 195,949 lots, up 7,222 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,247 lots, down 605 lots. [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 2,523 lots, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1770, 1810, 1810, 1830, and 1820 yuan/ton respectively, all with varying increases. [3] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main port are 437.5 and 435 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 25 US dollars. [3] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan. [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.1 tons, up 5.2 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, down 7.22 tons week - on - week. [3] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.46%, down 0.8%; the daily urea output is 195,500 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] - The urea export volume is 0, with no change; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 32.55%, up 2.72%; the melamine operating rate is 64.24%, up 1.68%. [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 91 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 490 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan. [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 416.82 tons, down 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,900 tons, up 900 tons. [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.22 tons or 7.46%. [3] - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 tons or 10.63%. [3] - As of July 17, China's urea output was 136.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31 tons or 0.95%, and the average daily output was 19.55 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, down 0.80%. [3] 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For corn, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth rate and high output prospects. In the domestic market, the auction volume of imported corn is decreasing, and the price has dropped due to increased supply and limited demand. Recently, the price has rebounded slightly due to reduced supply and rigid demand from processing enterprises. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch price has rebounded recently following the rebound of corn [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2320.70 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2664.42 yuan/ton, with a change of - 8 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1036253 lots, with a decrease of 31422 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 236649 lots, with a decrease of 25165 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 28996 lots, and for corn starch are - 16750 lots, with a decrease of 3032 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 177343 lots, with a decrease of 940 lots; for corn starch are 12184 lots, with a decrease of 150 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 7.25 cents/bushel; the total open interest of CBOT corn is 1498964 contracts, an increase of 297 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 141762 contracts, an increase of 13764 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2408.73 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.62 yuan/ton; the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2360 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1988.98 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.97 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is - 2.27 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 45 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 131 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 22.6 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 22.6 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 7.5 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, with no change; the predicted output is 44.3 million tons, with no change [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, with no change [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 83.8 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons; the corn inventory in northern ports is 317 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [2]. - The deep - processing corn inventory is 427 tons, a decrease of 16.6 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 19 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 tons, an increase of 4.06 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 110.05 tons, a decrease of 5.73 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.34%, a decrease of 4.62%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 50.29%, an increase of 0.15% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.13%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.94%, a decrease of 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.79%, an increase of 0.23%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.8%, an increase of 0.24% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of July 16, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Argentine corn was 78.9%, 8.7% higher than a week ago [2]. - As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than the same period last year [2]. - The soil moisture in some western US states is in short supply [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of mysteel corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10330 | | -20 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 137579 | 3880 -24 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -22861 | | -187 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8947 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1448 | 0 | | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 6 | | | 4.35 | 0.05 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 5.2 | | | 4.35 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) 0.08 广东红枣特级价格(日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term overall methanol industry's overall开工率 is expected to increase slightly, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2411 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 650455 lots, down 19282 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 115233 lots, up 28083 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 10344, up 1800 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1985 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan; the East - Northwest price difference is 405 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 21 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 273 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 330 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; FOB Rotterdam is 222 euros/ton, down 14 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 57 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.51 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.05 dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 63.4 tons, up 6.35 tons; in South China ports, it is 15.62 tons, up 0.78 tons; the methanol import profit is 10.48 yuan/ton, up 14.54 yuan; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 352300 tons, down 4600 tons; the methanol enterprise's operating rate is 82.69%, down 2.06% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 43.65%, down 1.59%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 90.59%, down 3.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.63%, up 0.77%; the olefin operating rate is 85.1%, down 0.05%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 942 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.64%, up 1.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.78%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.56%, up 0.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.56%, up 0.72% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons, a 1.28% decrease; the orders to be delivered were 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons, a 9.89% increase; the total port inventory was 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons; as of July 17, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.23 tons, down 0.05 tons, a 1.59% decrease [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the overall methanol production has decreased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown differences, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand has been weak [2] 3.9 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]