Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cai Yuehui [2] - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F0251444 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0013101 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - The iron ore futures price remains strong due to the rigid demand for molten iron. Macro factors have a significant impact on the sentiment of the black series. Although the port inventory of iron ore has increased slightly, the high - level operation of molten iron production supports the spot demand for iron ore. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high for the I2509 contract, and consider going long on dips, while paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. For the option market, it is advised to hold short - term long call options [7][51]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights 1.1 Market Review - As of July 18, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 785 (+21) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 816 (+22) yuan/dry ton [5]. - From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 7.8 tons week - on - week to 2987.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 93.8 tons week - on - week to 2558.8 million tons [5]. - From July 7 - 13, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports increased by 347.7 tons week - on - week to 2883.2 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports increased by 178.2 tons week - on - week to 2662.1 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports decreased by 264.1 tons week - on - week to 1147.9 million tons [5]. - The daily average molten iron production was 242.44 million tons, an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week and 2.79 million tons from the same period last year [5]. - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.51 million tons, an increase of 34.62 million tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1324.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8822.16 million tons, a decrease of 157.48 million tons week - on - week [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week and 28.14 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, Trump proposed potential tariffs on Russia and announced tariffs on products from Mexico and the EU. Domestically, the fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate development investment decreasing by 11.2%. The State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic market cycle and promoting consumption [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, but the year - on - year decline widened. With the rebound of steel prices, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production of steel mills stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for molten iron remained supportive [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The I2509 contract of iron ore remained strong, with the daily K - line moving average combination in a long - position arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA continued to rise, and the red column expanded [7]. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro and industrial aspects, the I2509 contract should be carefully chased when the price is high, and long positions can be considered on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The I2509 contract was strong this week, and its performance was stronger than that of the I2601 contract. On the 18th, the price difference was 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse receipts and positions**: On July 18, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the DCE was 3000, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 3545, a decrease of 27469 from the previous week [19]. - **Spot price**: On July 18, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 816 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 18th, the basis was 31 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation - **Arrival volume**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 7.8 tons week - on - week, while the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 93.8 tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports increased by 347.7 tons week - on - week [28]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 34.62 million tons week - on - week, with the inventory of Australian ore increasing and that of Brazilian ore and trade ore decreasing. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills decreased by 157.48 million tons week - on - week [31]. - **Inventory available days**: As of July 17, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory at domestic large and medium - sized steel mills were 20 days, the same as the previous week [34]. - **Import volume and capacity utilization**: In June 2025, China's iron ore imports increased year - on - year. As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines decreased by 2.56% week - on - week [39]. - **Production**: In June 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production decreased by 8.4% year - on - year. In May, the iron concentrate production of 433 domestic iron mines increased by 4.6% month - on - month [42]. 4. Downstream Situation - **Crude steel production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel production was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [45]. - **Steel import and export**: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased by 8.5% month - on - month, and imports decreased by 2.3% month - on - month [45]. - **Blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production**: On July 18, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points, and the molten iron production was 242.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 million tons [48]. 5. Option Market - Due to the anti - involution policy helping the black series to operate strongly and the center of the ore price moving up, it is recommended to hold short - term long call options [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro factors are causing increased market volatility, with external market sentiment significantly affecting the domestic market. It is expected that the high level of hot metal production will be difficult to sustain. The main contract of coke is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Macro**: From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the transition of urban development to the "stock quality - improvement and efficiency - enhancement stage". The China National Coal Association called for industry self - discipline. In 2025, Jiangsu plans to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking, and coal consumption is expected to decline by about 5% compared to 2020. Overseas, Trump announced a tariff agreement with Indonesia, and the US PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw material prices are rising, and hot metal production remains at a high level. Coal mines have strong price - holding intentions. Currently, hot metal production has increased. Nationwide, 30 independent coking plants have an average loss of 43 yuan per ton of coke. The market is mainly dominated by the weak reality in the off - season [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [8]. - **Strategy**: Due to enhanced macro - level disturbances and obvious spill - over effects of market sentiment, it is advisable to treat the main coke contract as moving in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 18, the contract position decreased by 912 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke inter - month spread increased by 16.50 points. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 670 lots, and the futures rebar - coke ratio increased by 0.01 [12][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 17, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan per ton. As of July 18, the coke basis decreased by 22.00 yuan/ton [25]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Coking Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 43 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.90% (up 0.18%), and the daily coke output is 51.41 tons (up 0.12 tons) [31][33]. - **Downstream**: The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons from last week. As of July 11, the total coke inventory increased by 15.08 tons [37]. - **Inventory Structure**: Port inventories decreased, while steel mill inventories increased. The inventory of 16 ports for imported coking coal decreased by 0.29 tons, and the inventory of 18 ports for coke decreased by 2.97 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.19 tons [41]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's coke exports decreased by 41.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to June decreased by 27.9%. Steel exports in June were 967.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%, and the cumulative exports from January to June increased by 9.2% year - on - year [45]. - **Housing Market Data**: In June, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 35.98% month - on - month [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors, such as the emphasis on promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity by the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, have improved commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, the inventory is moderately high, and the steel demand is in the off - season, with macro factors having a greater impact [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: From July 14th to 15th, the Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the transition of urban development to the "stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement stage". The China National Coal Association stressed coal supply quality. Jiangsu plans to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking output. In 2025, coal consumption is expected to decline by about 5% compared to 2020. Overseas, Trump reached an agreement with Indonesia, and the US 6 - month PPI growth was lower than expected [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Manufacturer's operating rate rebounded from a low level, with moderately high inventory. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons, and downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 90 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Treat the silicon manganese market as oscillating, as macro factors have a greater impact than fundamentals due to the off - season of steel demand and moderately high inventory [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The open interest decreased by 21,000 lots, and the monthly spread decreased by 18 points. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5,106, and the spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon September contracts increased by 10 [8][12][14]. - **Spot Market**: The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 [22]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Manufacturer**: The operating rate declined slightly, but the daily output increased. The demand from the five major steel products decreased by 1.24%, while the national silicon - manganese supply increased by 0.31%. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [25][30]. - **Upstream**: The Inner Mongolia electricity fee increased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and the Australian manganese ore price increased by 3 yuan/ton - degree. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 7.70 tons. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 100 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 410 yuan/ton [32][36][45]. - **Downstream**: The hot metal production was at a high level, and the July silicon - manganese steel procurement price increased by 200 yuan/ton [47][49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market will maintain a short - term tug - of - war, with the core contradiction being the game between the inflation rhythm pushed up by tariffs and the Fed's policy expectations. Trump's tariff increases have initially raised business costs. If the tariff scope expands or the August 1 negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience shown in June CPI and retail data may make the Fed maintain a wait - and - see attitude, limiting the upside of gold prices. The market focuses on the September rate - cut expectation, but if real interest rates do not fall as expected, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, Trump's 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico spurred safe - haven buying, but the market's expectation of negotiation easing diluted the increase. US June CPI core commodity inflation showed an initial rise, but overall CPI was lower than expected. The stagnant PPI growth in June led to a mid - week rebound. Near the weekend, strong retail sales boosted the dollar and suppressed gold, but Trump's 25% tariff on Japan reignited safe - haven demand. Gold prices remained high - level volatile. Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provided long - term support, while CFTC speculative net - long position reduction indicated short - term profit - taking pressure. Silver was relatively firm due to strong semiconductor demand but limited by weakening photovoltaic demand [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The precious metals market will remain in a short - term tug - of - war. If tariffs expand or the negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience may make the Fed wait and see, limiting gold's upside. The market focuses on the September rate - cut, but if real interest rates do not fall, gold may continue to fluctuate. Long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, pay attention to the correction risk. For the next week, the SHFE gold 2510 contract is expected to trade between 750 - 800 yuan/gram, the SHFE silver 2510 contract between 9000 - 9300 yuan/kg. For overseas markets, COMEX gold futures are expected to trade between 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures between 38 - 39 US dollars/ounce [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: Gold prices continued to fluctuate and ended the week higher, silver prices rose. There was a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. As of July 18, 2025, COMEX silver was at 38.555 US dollars/ounce, down 1.03% week - on - week; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9273 yuan/kg, up 2.84% week - on - week. COMEX gold was at 3344.2 US dollars/ounce, down 0.59% week - on - week; SHFE gold 2510 contract was at 777.02 yuan/gram, up 0.49% week - on - week [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 17, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 14695 tons, down 1.3% week - on - week; the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 948.50 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week [15]. - **COMEX Net Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 443144 contracts, up 1.25% week - on - week, and net positions were 202968 contracts, up 0.49% week - on - week. COMEX silver total positions were 162803 contracts, down 0.47% week - on - week, and net positions were 58521 contracts, down 7.70% week - on - week [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 261685 contracts, up 1.2% week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 58717 contracts, up 3.6% week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: As of July 17, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.36 yuan/gram, down 25.82% week - on - week; the silver basis was - 43 yuan/kg, down 258.33% week - on - week [30]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37143884.29 ounces, up 0.99% week - on - week; SHFE gold inventory was 24585 kg, up 14.58% week - on - week. COMEX silver inventory was 496635874 ounces, down 0.30% week - on - week; SHFE silver inventory was 1303593 kg, down 2.70% week - on - week [35]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46% month - on - month to 273741.39 kg, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% month - on - month to 136237148 kg. As of June 2025, due to soaring semiconductor silver demand, integrated circuit production increased by 15.80% year - on - year to 4506000 pieces [41][45]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: Gold prices were mainly volatile. As of July 17, 2025, the China Gold recycling price was 769.9 yuan/gram, down 0.21% week - on - week. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were basically stable [59]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93% quarter - on - quarter; gold jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47% quarter - on - quarter; total gold demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound due to strong CPI inflation and retail data. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio declined slightly. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate rose. In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, the eighth consecutive month of increase [67][72][76][80].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.18」 菜籽类市场周报 生柴消息利多提振 菜油期价震荡回升 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： Ø 策略建议：短线参与为主。 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡收涨，09合约收盘价9586元/吨，较前一周+147元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：现阶段加菜籽生长进入"天气主导"阶段。本周加拿大平原地区的炎热天气减少，且 出现有利降雨，对市场带来一定压力。且据路透社7月16日报道，澳大利亚即将与我国达成协议， 允许澳大利亚供应商试验性地向中国运送油菜籽货物，中澳之间的油菜籽贸易有望得到恢复。其 它方面，MPOB报告显示，6月底马棕库存增长2.41%，至203万吨，且高频数据显示，7月1-15 日马棕产量增加而出口有所下滑，牵制棕榈油价格。不过，美国和印尼生柴方面消息利多，提振 油脂市场。国内方面，油脂消费淡季， ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.18」 硅铁市场周报 预期较好情绪外溢，价格或阶段迎调整 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 持仓量下降5.2万手；月差环比下降12.00 图1、硅铁期货合约持仓量 来源：文华财经 瑞达期货研究院 图2、硅铁跨期价差走势图 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年运行分析会议强调，科学把握生产节奏，提升煤炭供给质量，加强行业自律，整治内 卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡；中钢协副会长王颖生表示，当前我国钢铁总产量已达峰值，未来国内粗钢消费量预计保持 在8-9亿吨上下，行业减量发展趋势明显，但产业集中度提升。 2. 海外方面，美国总统特朗普发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收 30%的关税；特朗普表示如果俄罗斯在50天内无法达成俄乌冲突协议，将对俄罗斯征收100%二级关税，亦会对购 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weekly oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, with a weekly increase of 8.84% and an amplitude of 10.39%. The main contract was quoted at 69,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The macro - level policy focuses on promoting the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardizing its competition order. In terms of fundamentals, the supply expectation of lithium carbonate has been repaired due to the mine rectification, and there are hedging opportunities in the futures market, with the lithium ore price rising accordingly. However, the demand side is still mainly for rigid consumption, and the spot market trading is light. The industrial inventory is at a high level and slightly accumulating [5]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is in a state where the expectation is repaired but the actual situation is still weak. More effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate main contract was oscillatory and slightly stronger. The closing price was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton [5][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply expectation was repaired due to mine rectification, but the actual supply might decrease. The demand was mainly rigid, and the inventory was high and accumulating [5]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillatory trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton. The near - far month inter - period spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,060 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 66,650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was - 3,310 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 2,780 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 708 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 12 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1796, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 5,825 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,781 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 45 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,145.78 tons, a decrease of 7,190.11 tons from April, a decline of 25.37% and a year - on - year decline of 13.92%. The monthly export volume was 286.735 tons, a decrease of 447.55 tons from April, a decline of 60.95% and a year - on - year increase of 34.96%. As of June 2025, the monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [30]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price was 49,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 500 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year - on - year increase of 35.25% [33]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price was 30,450 yuan/ton, with no weekly change. As of June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and no year - on - year change [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decline of 4% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [40]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 61.19%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 28,500 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [45]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year - on - year increase of 58.97%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 220,000 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [48]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [50]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [56]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.07, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 2.36%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from last week, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. As the weather gets hotter and seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, the demand for jujubes is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season jujube trees are in the critical fruit - setting period, and their growth is relatively good. The production reduction may be less than expected. It is expected that the price of the main jujube contract will be weakly volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits. Future trading should focus on weather impacts and the consumer end [8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of about 2.36% [8][11]. - **Market Outlook**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. Due to seasonal factors, jujube demand is weak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The price of the main contract is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the second - crop flowers and fruits [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Focus on weather impacts and the consumer end [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures dropped by about 2.36% this week [11]. - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 22,674 lots [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 8,971 [18]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 1020 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei gray jujube spot price and the main jujube futures contract was - 630 yuan/ton [22]. - **New - Season Purchase Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the purchase prices of jujube bulk goods in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Class Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - class gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.3 yuan/jin and 4.35 yuan/jin respectively [30]. - **Superior - Grade Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the wholesale prices of superior - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 9.71 yuan/kg and 9.8 yuan/kg respectively [34]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Inventory**: According to Mysteel's data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase, showing a slight decline this week [38]. - **Supply - Side - Production**: The jujube crop is growing well, and it is expected that the production in the 2024/25 season will recover [43]. - **Demand - Side - Export**: In May 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,229,227 kg, a 5.61% year - on - year decline. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 15,350,567 kg, a 16.99% cumulative year - on - year increase [47]. - **Demand - Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the order volume of the BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao brand was not traded [51]. 4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is given [53]. - **Stock Market - Haoxiangni**: A chart of Haoxiangni's price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific data or analysis is given [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.97% on a weekly basis. New - season apple production is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 million tons, with a slightly improved shipping speed. Current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, strongly supporting prices. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. In the short term, the price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. [5] - It is recommended to go long on the Apple 2510 contract on dips. Future trading should focus on inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new - crop production. [6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Apple Futures 2510 price rose 0.97% this week. New - season apple production is estimated to increase by 2.35%. As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 10.89 million tons week - on - week. Shandong's warehouse capacity ratio decreased by 1.06%, and Shaanxi's decreased by 1.09%. Inventory is at a five - year low, and early - maturing variety prices are up year - on - year, but summer fruits impact demand. The short - term price trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. [5] - It is recommended to go long on the Apple 2510 contract on dips. Future trading should focus on inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new - crop production. [6][7] 3.2 Futures Market - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.88%. As of this week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 6850 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0. [10][16] 3.3 Spot Market - As of July 18, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan per jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan per jin. [19] 3.4 Industry Chain Supply - side - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 million tons. Shandong's warehouse capacity ratio was 12.15%, a 1.06% decrease from last week; Shaanxi's was 4.63%, a 1.09% decrease from last week. [25] Demand - side - As of July 18, the average daily morning arrival of vehicles at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan per jin. [29] - As of July 11, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.66 yuan per kilogram, a 1.26% week - on - week increase; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease. [33] - As of July 11, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.33 yuan per kilogram, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease. [37] - In May 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 3.94 million tons, a 26.36% month - on - month decline from April and a 9.22% year - on - year decline from May 2022. [41] 3.5 Option Market - Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is presented in a graph, but no specific data is given. [42] 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - Information on the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a graph, but no specific data is given. [44]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.18」 螺纹钢市场周报 反内卷继续助力 螺纹期价震荡偏强 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）特朗普表示，如果无法在50天内达成协议结束俄乌冲突，美国将对俄罗斯实施"非常严厉的、大约 100%的关税"。（2）美国总统特朗普发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输 美产品征收30%的关税。国内，（1）上半年固定资产投资增长2.8%，其中房地产开发投资下降11.2%。（2）国常会指出，做强 国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。要找准关键着力点，深入实施提振消费专项行动。 2. 供需方面：螺纹钢周度产量继续下调，产能利用率降至45%附近，但电炉钢受钢价反弹影响开工率上调；消费淡季，终端需求 表现一般，表观需求继续回落，同时螺纹钢库存拐点出现。 3. 成本方面：铁矿石和煤焦继续同步 ...