1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [6][7][10]. - For rapeseed oil, the Canadian government has adjusted the estimated production and planting area of rapeseed, and the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The continuous drought in western Canada has raised concerns about rapeseed yields. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate has reduced the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may tighten again, which may affect rapeseed exports to China [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased, and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the market price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the operating rate of oil mills, and the supply is relatively loose, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although it is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [6]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - Market outlook: The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2024 has been increased, but the planting area in 2025 has been revised down. The dry weather in western Canada has affected the yield expectations. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure on mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations are factors to be considered [7]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [9]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market outlook: The USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the supply of rapeseed meal, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 323,968 lots, an increase of 4,565 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net long positions increased from +23,230 to +24,789 [16][21]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 564,558 lots, a decrease of 28,543 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net short positions decreased from - 35,816 to - 4,491 [16][21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 805 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 16,232 lots [25][26]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,730 yuan/ton, showing a rebound. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu is +123 yuan/ton [35]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,430 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal is - 167 yuan/ton [41]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is +71 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is +271 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [47]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.699, and the average ratio of spot prices is 4.0 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,663 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,135 yuan/ton, both showing narrow - range fluctuations this week [59]. - The spread between the 09 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 357 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 340 yuan/ton [65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of June 27, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 are 260,000 tons, 130,000 tons, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 3, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +222 yuan/ton. As of the 26th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 56,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, with an operating rate of 13.82%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 153,800 tons [69][74][78][82]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 884,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 111,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons [87]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons. As of May 31, the catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 159,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.13% [91][95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 194,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 103,900 tons [99][103]. - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons [107]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of July 4, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 17.22%, a decrease of 1.77% from the previous week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures, covering the period up to July 4, 2025 [2] - The author of the report is Liao Hongbin, with a futures investment consulting license number Z0020723 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, while the far - month contracts had returns ranging from - 1% to - 2%. The spot price index continued to improve, supporting the futures price of the main contract [6][38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2123.24, up 186.1 points from last week, a 9.6% increase [6][38] - In the US, the June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. The market abandoned the bet on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. It is currently expected that the Fed will start cutting rates in October and cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of the year [6][38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. The container capacity of leading shipping companies maintained a high - growth trend, and the global capacity supply continued to rise. Excess capacity was a major pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of the shipping industry's prosperity in 2025. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term [6][38] - Whether the trade war will improve as expected in the long term remains to be observed. July is an important window period for tariff renegotiation. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, tariff, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][38] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2508 contract's trading volume and open interest both increased [12][15] - The table shows the week - on - week changes, closing prices, etc. of different futures contracts and the spot index [9] 2. News Review and Analysis - The Ministry of Commerce's response to the report of the US President's potential visit to China with a business delegation was neutral in impact [18] - The US Congress passing the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was considered a bearish factor [18] - Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and the US President's trade - related announcements were generally considered to have a neutral impact [18] - The EU - US trade agreement negotiation was in the final stage, and the overall impact was considered neutral [18] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts declined this week, and the spread converged [23] - The export container freight rate index fluctuated upward this week [26] - Container capacity continued to rise. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [29] - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded slightly this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly fluctuated [32] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, and far - month contracts had negative returns. The spot price index improvement supported the main contract's futures price [38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index increased by 9.6% week - on - week [38] - The US economic data affected the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cuts [38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was under pressure. Excess capacity limited the shipping industry's recovery, while the spot price recovery may drive short - term futures price increases [38] - Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data during the important tariff negotiation window period in July [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry shows characteristics of reduced development and optimized stock, with the overall demand for steel still weak, and the production profit of ferroalloys is negative. The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as macro - policies, overseas trade, and supply - demand relationships. The silicon iron main contract is expected to fluctuate, considering the high inventory and off - season demand despite the low - level operation of alloy manufacturers' production [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The central government emphasizes eliminating backward production capacity, and the market sentiment is affected by the call to remove in - fighting and reduce redundant competition. From January to May, the national crude steel output was 432 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%, and the apparent consumption of domestic crude steel was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US has new trade policies and legislative actions. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, and the "Big Beautiful" bill passed in the US House of Representatives, bringing a deficit burden of $3.4 trillion [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The operation of silicon iron production is at a low level, and the demand for steel is still weak. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, with the spot profit in Inner Mongolia at - 360 yuan/ton and in Ningxia at - 320 yuan/ton. Before mid - August, the impact of Sino - US tariffs is expected to decline, but the impact of tariffs from other countries needs attention [7]. - **Cost Aspect**: The electricity cost in Ningxia and the price of semi - coke in Ningxia remain unchanged compared to the previous period [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro - policy boost and the current situation of low - level production and high inventory in the industry, the silicon iron main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 4, the position of silicon iron futures contracts increased by 4,123 lots to 405,300 lots, and the 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 28 compared to the previous period. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5,301 to 12,277, and the spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 5,280 yuan/ton [9][13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the basis of silicon iron was - 154 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 compared to the previous period [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 31.95%, an increase of 0.26% compared to the previous period, and the daily average output was 14,320 tons, an increase of 380 tons. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 20,481.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%, and the weekly supply of national silicon iron was 100,200 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 3.51% compared to the previous period [30][32]. - **Upstream**: As of June 30, the electricity price for silicon manganese and silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of July 3, the average price of semi - coke in Ningxia remained unchanged. The spot production profit in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and in Inner Mongolia, it was - 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [36][41]. - **Downstream**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 14,400 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 15,300 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the total export volume of silicon iron was 165,400 tons, a decrease of 15.97% compared to the same period last year [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is tight in the short - term, leading to a strong price fluctuation. The main contract of live pig futures rose 2.14% this week. However, in the medium - term, there is still supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, and the key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of second - fattening. If the slaughter rhythm recovers later, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the upside space of prices. The recommended strategy is range trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs continued to rise, with the main contract rising 2.14% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply is tight due to the scale farms' price - holding and reduced slaughter at the beginning of the month, and the farmers' reluctance to sell. The average slaughter weight has decreased. As the price difference between fat and standard pigs narrows and the price of live pigs rises, the slaughter rhythm is expected to recover. In the medium - term, there is supply pressure as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. The demand is weak during the off - season, with high temperatures suppressing people's willingness to buy pork, slow terminal sales, and a decline in the slaughterhouse's operating rate, although it is higher than last year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Range trading [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract rising 2.14% [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, the net short position of the top 20 holders of live pig futures increased by 1168 lots to 10564 lots compared with last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 450, a decrease of 300 compared with last week [16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the July contract of live pigs was 1350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the September contract was 895 yuan/ton [20]. - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average price of live pigs in the national market this week was 14.55 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last week and 2.03% compared with last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week and a decrease of 10.78% compared with last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of June 26, the national market price of pork was 25.20 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 11, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.12, a decrease of 0.17 compared with the previous week, and it was lower than the break - even point [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The inventory of breeding sows at the end of May was 40420000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 40000 heads (0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms in May increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In the first quarter, the inventory of live pigs increased year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 2.38% month - on - month and increased by 12.35% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.48% month - on - month and increased by 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of externally -三元 live pigs this week was 123.52 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg compared with last week [47]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit and Other Aspects - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 26.26 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 105.45 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.58 yuan/head, a decrease in loss of 0.17 yuan/head compared with last week [52]. - **Pork Import**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 450000 tons, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%, at a historically low level [53][57]. - **Substitute and Feed**: As of July 4, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of June 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.06 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of July 4, the spot price of soybean meal was 2916.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.43 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 3, the price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of July 4, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index decreased by 0.77% compared with last week. This week, the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of May 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2762100 tons, an increase of 98100 tons compared with the previous month [61][66][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as last month [77]. 3.3.3. Downstream - **Slaughter and Demand**: In the 27th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 26.50%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points compared with last week and 10.32 percentage points higher than last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 14.46%, a decrease of 2.95% compared with last week. As of May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, an increase of 4.52% compared with last month. In May 2025, the national catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [80][85]. 3.4. Live Pig Stocks - The report mentioned the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data was provided [86].

Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The short-term price of the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 and 11,500 [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber was weakly consolidating, with the Shandong market spot price fluctuating between 11,200 and 11,700 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of high-cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies were stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 and 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Affected by the weak raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, industry players are cautiously waiting and watching. Driven by the high inventory reduction of individual production enterprises, the overall inventory of domestic butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly this week. However, the shipment pressure of downstream enterprises remains high, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased week-on-week this week. Some semi-steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, significantly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises maintained stable production schedules, and individual enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 5 days, resulting in a slight decline in capacity utilization rate. Next week, as enterprise maintenance gradually ends and production resumes, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed flat, with a weekly change of +0% [12] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Inter - month spread: As of July 4, the spread between the 8th and 9th contracts of butadiene rubber was 75 [19] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 4, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 700 tons, unchanged from last week [22] Group 3: Spot Market - Spot price: As of July 3, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of July 3, the basis of butadiene rubber was 315 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of July 3, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 577.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.26 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of July 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, an increase of 1.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons from last week [33] Group 5: Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In June 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous month. As of July 3, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.98%, an increase of 0.18% from last week [36] - Production profit: As of July 3, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 164 yuan/ton, an increase of 414 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Inventory: As of July 4, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 870 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons from last week [42] Group 6: Downstream Market - Tire capacity utilization: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [45] - Tire export: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [48]

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.04」 目录 郑州尿素期货价格走势 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂上涨至1750-1790元/ 吨，均价环比上涨10元/吨。 行情展望：近期新增装置检修，国内尿素日产量下降，下周可能1家企业装置计划停车，2家停车 企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量略增概率较大。近期农业需求继续推进，苏皖 以及北方局部区域追肥用量继续释放。国内工业存刚需，国内复合肥企业装置开工率继续下降， 短期企业装置开工率或维持低位，但中下旬随着预收的推进，部分企业为秋季肥建仓，开工率或 缓慢回升。本周国内尿素企业库存继续下降，降幅扩大，尿素集港速度加快，以及国内局部农业 需求推进，共同使得尿素企业库存高位下降，近期尿素仍处于集港阶段，国内需求缓慢推迟，预 计尿素企业仍有去库可能。 策略建议： UR2509合约短线建议在1730-1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market mainly declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2450 - 2840 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2420 - 2470 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market first declined and then rose. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line fluctuated between 1980 - 2010 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2205 - 2230 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production reduction exceeded the output of restored capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production. In Northwest China, some olefin plants had unexpected recovery failures while the supporting methanol plants operated normally, leading to a rapid accumulation of enterprise inventories this week [7]. - This week, the methanol port inventory fluctuated slightly. In the Yangtze - River area of East China, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas remained low. With more foreign vessels and domestic cargo supplements, inventory accumulation was obvious. In South China, the number of domestic vessels decreased month - on - month, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [7]. - In terms of demand, Zhongmei Mengda and Yanchang Zhongmei Phase II continued to be under maintenance. This week, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased. The Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin plant is planned to shut down next week, and the operating rate will continue to decline [7]. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic port methanol spot price declined, and the inland market first declined and then rose [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Production decreased slightly, enterprise inventories in Northwest China accumulated rapidly, port inventory fluctuated slightly, and demand weakened [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.25% [9]. - As of July 4, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 38 [14]. - As of July 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8655, an increase of 638 compared with last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 4, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2005 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 3, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 283 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared with last week [33]. - As of July 4, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 371 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of July 2, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41]. - As of July 3, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - **Industry** - As of July 3, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons compared with last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.45% [44]. - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 10,300 tons [49]. - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23% [49]. - In May 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43% [53]. - As of July 3, the methanol import profit was 6.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312.34 yuan/ton compared with last week [53]. - **Downstream** - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%. The average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline [56]. - As of July 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 919 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures have been oscillating downward recently. Due to factors such as increased planting area in the US, good growth conditions, and domestic import auctions increasing supply, along with wheat's substitution advantage, the corn market is under pressure. Corn starch futures have also declined, affected by the drop in corn prices. Although the supply pressure of corn starch has weakened and the spot price is relatively stable, the demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [9][10][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [9] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - **Market Outlook**: In 2025, the US corn planting area decreased slightly compared to the March estimate but increased by 5% compared to 2024. The US corn inventory in the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 7% year - on - year. The domestic import corn auction started on July 1, with significant premiums. On July 4, the auction volume increased to 306,000 tons. Wheat has a significant substitution advantage, and the feed demand for corn has decreased. The corn futures price has been oscillating downward from a high level [10] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [13] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [14] - **Market Outlook**: Due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. The spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Recently, it has been affected by the decline in corn prices [14] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 9 - month contract of corn futures oscillated downward, with a total position of 945,346 lots, a decrease of 28,424 lots from the previous week. The 9 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated downward, with a total position of 178,348 lots, an increase of 28,954 lots from the previous week [20] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 35,964, and the net short position decreased compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 11,107, and the net short position also decreased [27] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 204,318, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 22,643 [33] Spot Price and Basis - As of July 3, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 9 - month contract and the spot average price was + 84 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2940 yuan/ton. The basis between the 9 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 133 yuan/ton [38][42] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 62 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 9 - month contract of starch and corn was 364 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [57] Substitute Spread - As of July 3, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 14.03 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 120 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - **Port Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, the same as the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons week - on - week [52] - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 81.9% [70] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, a decrease of 0.63 days from the previous week, a decrease of 1.93% week - on - week, and an increase of 1.62% year - on - year [74] Corn Demand - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [78] - **Breeding Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 50.25 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 131.71 yuan/head [82] - **Processing Profit**: As of July 3, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. As of July 4, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 540 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 384 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan/ton [86] Corn Starch Supply - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [90] - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week. As of July 2, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.313 million tons, an increase of 4000 tons from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.31%, a monthly increase of 0.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.83% [94] 4. Option Market Analysis As of July 4, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous week's 9.85%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate. The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has improved market sentiment, but the alloy manufacturers' inventory remains high and the steel demand is in the off-season [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week's Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspects**: The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasizes improving product quality and phasing out backward production capacity, which has greatly improved market sentiment. The China Iron and Steel Association advises enterprises to be rational about billet exports, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology addresses the disorderly low - price competition in the photovoltaic industry [6]. - **Overseas Aspects**: US President Trump doesn't consider extending the tariff grace period, and the US Treasury Secretary believes China will speed up rare - earth exports. Trump has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, but the inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 0.9 tons, downstream hot - metal production is high, and coal price rebound supports the price. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 180 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 250 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspects**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - manganese main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro - environment and fundamentals, the silicon - manganese market should be treated as oscillating [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - As of July 4, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 589,600 lots, a week - on - week increase of 6,683 lots. The 1 - 9 contract month spread was 44.0, up 10 week - on - week [12]. - As of July 4, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipt quantity was 88,686, a week - on - week decrease of 3,313. The September contract spread between silicon - manganese and silicon - iron was 284, down 16 week - on - week [16]. Spot Market - As of July 4, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was - 212 yuan/ton, down 36 week - on - week [23]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Industry - The operating rate of silicon - manganese manufacturers has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, with both supply and demand increasing week - on - week. The national operating rate was 40.34%, up 1.13% from last week. The daily average output was 25,730 tons, an increase of 125 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese was 126,789 tons, up 0.72% week - on - week, and the national silicon - manganese output was 180,110 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week [26]. - As of July 3, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 500 tons to 222,300 tons. Inner Mongolia's inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, Ningxia's increased by 5,000 tons, etc. [31] Upstream - As of July 3, the prices of South African and Australian manganese ores at Tianjin Port remained unchanged week - on - week. As of June 30, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron production remained unchanged week - on - week [37]. - As of June 27, 2025, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 0.9 tons to 422.4 tons. This week, 50.52 tons of South African manganese ore arrived in China, a 98% increase from last week and an 11% increase from the same period last year, and there was no arrival from other major shipping countries [43]. - On July 4, the northern region's silicon - manganese spot production cost was 5,680 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the southern region's was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The northern region's spot production profit was - 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the southern region's was - 480 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [47]. Downstream - This week, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.85 tons, a decrease of 1.44 tons from last week but an increase of 1.53 tons from the same period last year. In June, HeSteel's silicon - manganese tender price was 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from May [50].

Report Information - Report Title: "Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report - Futures Bonds in Volatile Adjustment, Awaiting Policy Breakthrough" [3][4] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy is in a weak recovery, and the external risks are gradually easing. However, the sustainability of economic growth requires the coordinated efforts of fiscal and loose monetary policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow - range shock under the game of multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait for policy signals for band - trading opportunities [94][95] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data of Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts rose by 0.26% and 0.05% respectively, while the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively. The trading volume of TS, TF, and T main contracts increased, while that of the TL main contract decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, and T main contracts decreased, while that of the TL main contract increased [14][17][23][31] - **Yield of Treasury Bonds**: The yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened collectively. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturity decreased by about 0.80 - 1bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y decreased by about 0.6bp and 0.4bp to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [10] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policies**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The CSRC focused on optimizing capital market mechanisms and protecting investors. The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a tax - credit policy for overseas investors' direct investment [9][34] - **Domestic Economic Data**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded. In May, economic data was mixed, with industrial growth slightly declining, retail sales exceeding expectations, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and the unemployment rate improving. Export growth weakened, and financial data slightly exceeded expectations [9] - **Overseas News**: The US cancelled the requirement for three chip - design software suppliers to apply for a license for their business in China. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill [35] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The yield spread between 10 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds widened slightly, while that between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly [43] - **Main Contract Spread**: The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened [47] - **Near - Far Month Spread**: The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread widened slightly, the 30 - year contract's spread fluctuated narrowly, the 2 - year contract's spread narrowed slightly, and the 5 - year contract's spread fluctuated [53][57] - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T treasury bond futures main contract decreased slightly [62] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Shibor rates for overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month terms all declined. The yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened, with 1 - 7Y yields decreasing and 10Y and 30Y yields also declining [67] - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [71] - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 65.22 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases mature, resulting in a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate dropped to around 1.42% [10][73] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 75.5736 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 45.3068 billion yuan, and a net financing of 30.2667 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1535, up 92 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened [80] - **US Treasury Yield and VIX Index**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose slightly, and the VIX index dropped slightly [86] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond dropped slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined [91] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy is in a recovery trend, but the momentum of domestic demand recovery needs to be consolidated. External risks have eased, but the sustainability of economic growth requires the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies [94] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy is gradually recovering, and the strong employment market weakens the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the uncertainty of future interest - rate cut rhythms [94] - **Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to remain in a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to wait for policy signals for band - trading opportunities [95]