瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 菜籽类市场周报 中加贸易缓和升温 继续拖累菜系市场 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 菜油： Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡微跌，05合约收盘价8991元/吨，较前一周-72元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。不过，加拿大总理卡尼 访问期间与中国签署了《中国-加拿大经贸合作路线图》，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽 市场。其它方面，美国生柴消息利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月 前二十日出口明显增加。另外，印尼撤销28家公司许可证，涉及棕榈油种植园，引发对印棕供应 的担忧。国内方面，现阶段油厂继续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑， 菜油基差维持高位。不过，中加贸易缓和预期升温，且路透社消息称中国已采购6万吨加拿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures Contract 2605 declined with a weekly drop of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas saw a slight improvement in Spring Festival stocking, with an increase in origin shipment volume. However, snowfall in some production areas during the week slightly affected the shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory clearance speed accelerated. The futures price is likely to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term supported by stocking demand [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - by - Week Highlights** - The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas' Spring Festival stocking improved slightly, and origin shipment increased. Snowfall in some areas affected shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons (down 218,800 tons from last week), and the inventory clearance accelerated. In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week); in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week). In the sales area market, the number of incoming trucks decreased, transit inventory piled up, customers were scarce, and sales were slow. The futures price may fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market**: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 fell by about 0.06% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top twenty in apple futures was - 2913 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty [19]. **3.3 Industry Situation and Options** - **Industrial Chain Situation** - **Supply**: As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from last week. The inventory clearance speed accelerated but was still lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week), and in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week) [24]. - **Demand** - As of January 23, the average daily number of incoming trucks in the major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) [28]. - As of January 16, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.52 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.20 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. - As of January 16, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.83 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [36]. - In December 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented, but specific data not given in the text summary [41]. **3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation** - A graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd. (603336) is provided, showing the historical price - earnings ratio from September 30, 2020, to September 30, 2024 [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.85% [9][11]. - The current time has entered the traditional peak stocking period before the Spring Festival. However, downstream channels have a low willingness to make large - order purchases, and the terminal market generally maintains a low - inventory strategy of "buying and selling as needed", resulting in fragmented demand transmission. With only more than ten days left before the national logistics network shuts down, close attention should be paid to the stocking intensity in the last stage before the festival [9]. - The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in jujube output [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side [9]. - As of January 22, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube points this week was 14,068 tons, a decrease of 347 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.72% [9][36]. - The Hebei sales area continued to receive goods, and prices were stable but weak [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.85% [11]. - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 18,571 lots [12]. - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,298 [17]. - **Futures price spread**: As of this week, the price spread between the 2605 and 2609 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 240 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was 460 yuan/ton [23]. - **Purchase price in main production areas**: As of January 23, 2026, the purchase price of general - quality jujubes in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26]. - **First - grade jujube spot price**: As of January 23, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [27]. - **Special - grade jujube spot price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.26 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.44 yuan/kg [32]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side**: - As of January 22, 2026, the 36 - sample jujube inventory decreased by 2.41% month - on - month and increased by 32.72% year - on - year [36]. - The jujube output in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [40]. - **Demand side**: - In December 2025, China's jujube export volume was 5,071,577 kg, with an export value of 79,876,362 yuan and an average export price of 15,749.81 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 43.36% month - on - month and decreased by 18.20% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export was 34,362,765 kg, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.58% [43]. - This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had only a small amount of orders [48]. 3.4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week was presented, but no specific numerical summary was provided [49]. - **Stock market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni (002582) was shown, but no specific numerical analysis was provided [51][52].

Group 1: Report Overview - The precious metals market continued its upward trend this week, with the Greenland incident boosting market risk aversion, and domestic and international gold and silver prices hitting new all - time highs [7]. - The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips recommended, while short - term high - level correction risks should be noted [7]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current US economic data generally meets market expectations. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged in the context of loose liquidity and a gradual slowdown in economic data [7]. Group 4: Periodic and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend due to macro - event shocks this week [8]. - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 was reported at 24,965 yuan/kg, up 11.04% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2604 was reported at 1,115.64 yuan/g, up 8.07% for the week [12]. - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 22, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holding was reported at 1,079.66 tons, a 0.51% increase; the SLV silver ETF holding was reported at 16,104 tons, a 0.90% decrease [13][17]. - As of January 13, 2025 (latest), the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased significantly. The COMEX gold net position was reported at 251,238 contracts, a 10.40% increase; the COMEX silver net position was reported at 32,060 contracts, a 9.53% increase [18][22]. - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 22, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was reported at - 14.58 yuan/g; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was reported at - 430 yuan/kg, showing a week - on - week weakening [23][27]. - This week, the gold and silver inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges continued to diverge. As of January 22, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was reported at 36,144,279.82 ounces, a 0.19% decrease; the SHFE gold inventory was reported at 100,053 kg, a 2.46% increase. The COMEX silver inventory was reported at 426,476,499 ounces, a 2.5% decrease; the SHFE silver inventory was reported at 626,843 kg, a 1.10% increase [28][30]. Group 5: Industrial Supply - Demand Situation Silver Industry - As of December 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand both increased significantly. China's silver import volume was reported at 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was reported at 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase [32][36]. - Downstream: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the production of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to be stable. As of December 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was reported at 4,810,000 units, and the year - on - year growth rate was reported at 12.9% [38][41]. Silver Supply - Demand - The silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was reported at 680.5 million ounces, a 4% increase; the demand for coins and net bars was reported at 190.9 million ounces, a 22% decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was reported at 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was reported at 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% decrease [43][45]. - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was reported at - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease. The World Silver Institute predicted that in 2025, the global total silver supply would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [50][52]. Gold Supply - Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [54][71]. Group 6: Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly under the impact of macro - events [58]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly [63]. - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is likely to continue range-bound trading due to a combination of factors. Macroscopically, tariff disturbances have weakened, and there are expectations of loose monetary policies. Industrially, the weekly output of rebar has stopped falling and rebounded, reaching around 2 million tons. It is the off - consumption season, with apparent demand declining and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3165 yuan/ton [9]. - Given the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. It is suggested to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of January 23, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton (-21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton week - on - week). Rebar production increased to 199.55 tons (+9.25 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year increase of 25.42 tons. Apparent demand declined to 185.52 tons (-4.82 tons week - on - week), but a year - on - year increase of 68.61 tons. Total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (+14.03 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year decrease of 31.11 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.23 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the US will not impose tariffs on eight European countries, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Domestically, the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. In terms of cost, iron ore port inventory reached a new high, and coking coal and coke still have winter storage expectations. Technically, the RB2605 contract continued range - bound trading, with technical support at 3100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The RB2605 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. It was stronger than the RB2610 contract, with a spread of -46 yuan/ton on the 23rd, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On January 23, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39487 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43193 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders in the rebar futures contract was 66833 lots, an increase of 38128 lots compared to the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On January 23, the spot price of Grade III 20mm HRB400 rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3321 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 23rd was 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream Market**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, while port inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory increased [30][35][39]. - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly rebar production increased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, and the electric arc furnace operating rate decreased. Rebar inventory increased [45][48][54]. - **Downstream Demand**: In 2025, real estate development investment, new housing construction area, and infrastructure investment all declined year - on - year [57]. 4. Options Market - Due to the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60].

Group 1: Report Summary and Strategy Recommendations - The egg market showed a slight decline in this week's trading. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3046 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 26 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The ongoing losses in the breeding sector have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling of old hens. The inventory of laying hens continues to decline from its high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment is still lower than the same period last year, which is favorable for future prices [6]. - However, the current inventory of laying hens is still at a high level. Recently, the Spring Festival stocking sentiment has reached its peak, and the inventory at all levels has decreased. Some inventories have been cleared, and traders are more active in purchasing, with a faster turnover rate. Egg prices have risen significantly, and the profits of the breeding sector have improved, which has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old hens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - term market price [6]. - After the New Year's Day, the futures market has also shown a relatively strong and volatile trend, boosted by the continuous rise in spot prices. However, the high inventory pressure continues to affect the futures market trend. It is recommended to participate in the short - term trading [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures Price and Top Twenty Positions - The March contract of egg futures showed a slight decline, with a trading volume of 270,982 lots, an increase of 7,784 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top twenty was +10,286, compared with +1,787 last week, indicating a slight increase in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of eggs was reported at 3907 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 263 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract of egg futures and the average spot price was reported at +861 yuan per ton [22]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the March and May contracts of egg futures was reported at - 466 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is generally at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.5 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.66 yuan per kilogram [32]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Conditions Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [38]. Culling Index and Culling Age of Laying Hens - As of December 31, 2025, the national culling index of laying hens was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national culling age of laying hens was reported at 500 days [43]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of January 22, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2370 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3140 yuan per ton [47]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 16, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.08 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens - As of January 16, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.0 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 8.78 yuan per kilogram [58]. Monthly Egg Export Volume - According to data released by the Chinese Customs, in December 2025, the total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2,767.32 tons compared with 12,131.40 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was also an increase of 1,853.21 tons compared with 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. Group 4: Representative Company - The report also mentioned the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd [65].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 铝类市场周报 供需尚稳预期支撑，铝类或将高位震荡 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝低位运行，电解铝厂理论利润情况较好，加之其冶炼厂启停成本较高，生产开工 情况仍保持高位稳定，在运行产能小幅提振，但受限于行业上限的制约，其增量有限，电解铝供给量大体持稳。需求 端，季节性消费淡季的影响下，下游铝材厂逢低补货、刚需采购为主，现货市场成交情况一般，产业库存积累。整体 来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求表现谨慎的阶段，铝价受宏观预期的影响而保持高位运行。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝周线反弹，周涨跌幅+1.53%，报24290元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏弱，周涨跌-0.98%，报2724元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚传统雨季影响正在逐渐消退，矿山开工率与发运能力逐步恢复， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances are weakening, and there are expectations of a loose monetary policy. Industrially, iron ore shipments are decreasing, molten iron production is stagnant, port congestion volumes are declining, ports continue the trend of inventory accumulation, and spot resources are relatively abundant. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the I2605 contract in the range of 810 - 770 yuan, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on January 23, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 795 (-17) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 251,100 tons week - on - week. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 117,300 tons. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron production increased by 90 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 207,830 tons. As of January 23, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.9692 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.575 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.23 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the center of gravity of the I2605 contract moved down. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 17.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,100, a week - on - week decrease of 400. On January 23, the net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 14,724, a decrease of 3,885 compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On January 23, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons; the daily average port congestion volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 77.7605 million tons, an increase of 193,840 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 60.9071 million tons, a decrease of 78,430 tons; the trading ore inventory was 115.2784 million tons, an increase of 174,990 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days [34]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of January 22, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. On January 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,761, a week - on - week increase of 194 [38]. 3.3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - According to customs statistics, in December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%; from January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines in China was 62.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.06%; the daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons; the inventory was 435,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons [42]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 79.3449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6831 million tons. From January to December, the cumulative production was 1.0020771 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.0188 million tons. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [45]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In the whole year of 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [49]. 3.4.2 Steel Imports and Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel export was 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel import was 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On January 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 percentage points. On January 23, the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.23」 热轧卷板市场周报 多空博弈 热卷期价延续区间整理 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1. 价格：截至1月23日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3305（-10），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3320（-10）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。305.41（-2.95），（同比-17.23）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求提升。本期表需314.16（+5.82），（同比+11.6）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库降。总库存357.78（-4.55），（同比+21.27）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率40.69%，环比上周增加0.86个百分点，同比去年减少8.23个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美国总统特朗普发文称，他已经同北约秘书长吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the export transactions of some domestic butadiene resources drove up the raw material market, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber and affecting production profits. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, and traders actively supported prices. However, downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded rapidly after a significant decline [6]. - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained at a high level. Sufficient spot resources have led to continuous price - pressure from downstream buyers, putting pressure on production profits. Some producers' inventories increased this week, while the price advantage of arbitrage resources led to increased low - price procurement by downstream, and traders' inventories decreased. It is expected that the inventories of producers and traders will change little in the short term [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, while most other enterprises maintained stable production. The shipment pressure of all - steel tire enterprises increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - For the br2603 contract, short - term traders need to beware of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The export transactions of domestic butadiene resources drove up raw material prices, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, but downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded after a decline [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply of butadiene rubber remains high, and downstream procurement is still pressuring prices. Producer inventories increased, and trader inventories decreased. It is expected that inventories will change little in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises showed mixed trends, and it is expected to be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the br2603 contract, short - term traders should beware of callback correction and wait and see for the time being [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 9.44% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Inter - Period Spread**: As of January 23, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 23, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 8,120 tons, an increase of 1,590 tons from last week [20]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of January 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of January 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 567 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of January 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.45%, an increase of 0.08% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 34,500 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from last week [32]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In December 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 76.12%, a decrease of 3.45% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of January 22, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the social inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 35,400 tons, an increase of 460 tons from last week. The producer inventory was 29,050 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,350 tons, a decrease of 1,690 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises showed mixed trends this week [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. The exports of passenger car tires and truck and bus tires showed different trends [48] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report