1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff tension between the US and Europe has eased, but Trump's stance on the acquisition of Greenland remains tough, keeping the short - term risk - aversion sentiment high [2] - In South Africa, the phased load reduction continues, and the risk of power outages during peak night hours restricts the short - term increase in smelter operating rates [2] - The continuous strengthening of the US dollar against the South African rand partially offsets the local currency cost pressure, but a continued depreciation of the rand will suppress marginal supply in US dollars [2] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the substitution demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year [2] - Although global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the rising penetration of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [2] - The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolysers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm, and the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium [2] - The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2] - For London platinum, the upper resistance is at $2900 per ounce, and the lower support is at $2700 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $2100 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum主力合约 is 744.70 yuan/gram, up 65.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium主力合约 is 534.80 yuan/gram, up 35.80 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约持仓 volume is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the palladium主力合约持仓 volume is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 733.25 yuan, up 51.75 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 0.00 yuan, down 463.00 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约 basis is - 11.45 yuan/gram, down 14.00 yuan; the palladium主力合约 basis is - 534.80 yuan/gram, down 498.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] - The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the estimated total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2] - The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the estimated total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.50, down 0.78; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, down 0.03% [2] - The VIX volatility index is 16.09, up 0.45 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US is deploying troops to Iran, imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and sanctioning entities related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [2] - Trump said the US expects to gain "sovereignty" over the area of US military bases in Greenland [2] - Some Democratic senators will vote against the government funding bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government "shutdown" at the end of January [2] - Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, and Rick Rieder's probability of being nominated has risen from 4% to about 50% [2] - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value; the Services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5; the Composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8. All three are slightly lower than expected. The one - year inflation expectation in January 2026 is revised down to 4%, the lowest in a year [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast at 23:30 on January 26 [2] - US M2 money supply at 02:00 on January 28 [2] - Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 03:00 on January 29 [2] - US November trade balance (imports and exports) at 21:30 on January 29 [2] - US PPI year - on - year (%) at 21:30 on January 30 [2]

2、截至2026年1月26日，A股共有921家上市公司披露2025年业绩预告，其中340家预喜（预增234家、略增33家、 扭亏70家、续盈3家），预喜比例为36.91%；579家预忧，2家业绩不确定。 观点总结 重点关注 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 A股主要指数收盘普遍下跌，三大指数早盘集体高开后表现分化，上证指数窄幅震荡深证成指、创业板指震荡下行。大 盘蓝筹股强于中小盘股。截止收盘，上证指数跌0.09%，深证成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%。沪深两市成交额回升 。全市场超3700只个股下跌。行业板块多数下跌，国防军工板块大幅走弱，有色金属、石油石化板块大幅走强。海外 方面，特朗普表示，如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议，会向加拿大征收100%关税。特朗普滥用关税武器，引发市场对 美元资产的不信任，美元指数进一步走弱。国内方面，经济基本面，四季度我国GDP进一步回落，但全年5%经济增长 目标仍顺利完成，12月份除规上工业增加值外，固投、社零、出口同比均较11月回落。个股方面，已发布 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 14645 | -80 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 60 | 40 -6836 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -20304 | -3231 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 155289 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 38938 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 15050 | 100 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9750 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 75 | 180 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.14 | -0.07 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 23861.23 | 11020 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is -80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is $3,269/ton, up $58; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 234,796 lots, an increase of 11,768 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,706 lots, an increase of 5,429 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 111,500 tons (daily), a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,680 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is -45 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread is -$32.62/ton, up $4.04 [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), a decrease of 53,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons (weekly), an increase of 5,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.71% (daily), an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75% (daily), an increase of 0.03 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In January, the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high [3]. - The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Trump demanded full military liberalization in Greenland and claimed the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland [3]. - The first tri - party talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine since the Russia - Ukraine conflict were held in the UAE. Zelensky and the US presidential envoy said the talks were "constructive", with progress on military issues but no consensus on territorial issues [3]. View Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other sectors brings some bright spots [3]. - Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventory has decreased, LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained low [3]. - Technically, the open interest has increased and the price has rebounded, with a warming of the bullish sentiment [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA10, with an expected range between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 425,340 yuan/ton, down 4,230 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract is up 450 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 56,605 US dollars/ton, up 4,728 US dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 55,233 lots, down 1,021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4,973 lots, up 1,468 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,195 tons, up 40 tons. The SHFE tin inventory is 9,720 tons, up 171 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 8,624 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 434,850 yuan/ton, up 14,550 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 437,200 yuan/ton, up 13,460 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 18,780 yuan. The LME tin (0 - 3) spread is - 245 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrates is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 420,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 424,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan. The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 274,330 yuan/ton, up 8,900 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, both the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high. The EU announced a 6 - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the US. There are disputes over Greenland, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks were held in the UAE, with some progress on military issues and no consensus on territorial issues [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in Q1. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. Smelting: Most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production is still limited, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. Import: Indonesia's exports increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. The recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have corrected, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a long - upper - shadow negative line with increasing volume and decreasing positions, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment [3].

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11465 | -100 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 133394 | 1981 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 433 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -47718 | 2182 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, macro shocks continued to provide safe - haven support for the precious metals market, leading to an upward - trending and volatile platinum - palladium market. The short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain high due to uncertainties such as the US tariff plan and Trump's stance on the Greenland acquisition. Supply is restricted by South Africa's power issues and Russia's export conditions, while demand for platinum may increase due to new EU emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will dominate trading, with a likely "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum is expected to trade between $2500/oz and $2800/oz, and London palladium between $1800/oz and $2000/oz [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro factors: The US tariff plan on eight European countries was postponed, but Trump's attitude towards Greenland acquisition is uncertain, keeping short - term risk - aversion high. South Africa's power company maintains load - shedding, limiting smelter short - term production. The weakening of the South African rand may suppress marginal supply in US dollars. Russia has no new export guidance, and the "east - bound sales priority" policy and sanctions continue to affect the palladium trade [7]. - Demand: The EU's new emission standards will increase platinum demand in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although global passenger car sales are slightly down, the growth of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve platinum's long - term demand. The IEA's hydrogen outlook shows potential growth in PEM electrolyzer installations, providing potential support for platinum [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price trends: The platinum - palladium market rose this week, with platinum showing stronger price elasticity due to supply - demand tightness. As of January 23, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures prices increased by 12.43% and 6.09% respectively [8][12]. - Net long positions: As of January 13, 2026, NYMEX platinum's net long positions decreased by 0.45% to 23,806 contracts, and palladium's net long positions decreased by 23.50% to - 2,890 contracts [17]. - Basis: The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week [18]. - Inventory: As of January 22, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 0.24% to 665,888.20 ounces, and palladium inventory increased by 2.54% to 216,266.31 ounces [25]. - Price ratios: The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to early 2025 [26]. - Correlation: The positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index has rebounded recently [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - Trade: As of November 2025, platinum imports and exports decreased [36]. - Demand: The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts has weakened marginally, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is slowly declining [41][46]. - Supply: Due to geopolitical conflicts and power issues, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [52]. - Price difference: The price difference between domestic and international platinum and palladium markets has become more stable [57]. 3.4 Macro and Options - The US dollar index weakened this week under the impact of macro events [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price showed a volatile upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of the macro - environment, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium ore quotation continued to strengthen, and smelters had sufficient raw material inventories and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The supply of lithium salt plants increased with the rise in lithium prices, but as the long holiday approached, some smelters might enter the maintenance period, and production might decrease. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and the spot market trading sentiment improved [7]. - The overall lithium carbonate fundamentals are expected to gradually shift to a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly increased demand, and industrial inventories will continue to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile upward trend on the weekly line, with a price increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The lithium ore price is strong, smelters have sufficient raw materials. Supply may decrease as some smelters enter maintenance before the holiday, while downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand is rising [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Lightly - position short - term long positions at low prices, and control risks [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 181,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35,320 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,880 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,540 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 171,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 10,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,320 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,935 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9628, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% [22]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of January 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 16,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 750 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,933.47 tons (8.77%), and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.66 tons (20.11%), and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. The monthly output was 56,820 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,840 tons (5.26%), and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of January 23, 2026, the average price was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 233,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons (0.91%), and a year - on - year increase of 44.19% [36]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 52,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 440 tons (0.16%), and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,090 tons (1.77%), and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180 tons (1.76%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 52,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [49]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 280 tons (1.74%), and a year - on - year increase of 118.72%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [52]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of December 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The monthly production was 1,718,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.62%; the monthly sales were 1,710,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2%. The cumulative export volume was 2.615 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 103.66% [55][59]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying is - 0.41, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [64].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.23」 菜籽类市场周报 中加贸易缓和升温 继续拖累菜系市场 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 菜油： Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货震荡微跌，05合约收盘价8991元/吨，较前一周-72元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。不过，加拿大总理卡尼 访问期间与中国签署了《中国-加拿大经贸合作路线图》，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽 市场。其它方面，美国生柴消息利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月 前二十日出口明显增加。另外，印尼撤销28家公司许可证，涉及棕榈油种植园，引发对印棕供应 的担忧。国内方面，现阶段油厂继续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑， 菜油基差维持高位。不过，中加贸易缓和预期升温，且路透社消息称中国已采购6万吨加拿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures Contract 2605 declined with a weekly drop of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas saw a slight improvement in Spring Festival stocking, with an increase in origin shipment volume. However, snowfall in some production areas during the week slightly affected the shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory clearance speed accelerated. The futures price is likely to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term supported by stocking demand [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - by - Week Highlights** - The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas' Spring Festival stocking improved slightly, and origin shipment increased. Snowfall in some areas affected shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons (down 218,800 tons from last week), and the inventory clearance accelerated. In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week); in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week). In the sales area market, the number of incoming trucks decreased, transit inventory piled up, customers were scarce, and sales were slow. The futures price may fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Futures Market**: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 fell by about 0.06% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top twenty in apple futures was - 2913 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty [19]. **3.3 Industry Situation and Options** - **Industrial Chain Situation** - **Supply**: As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from last week. The inventory clearance speed accelerated but was still lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week), and in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week) [24]. - **Demand** - As of January 23, the average daily number of incoming trucks in the major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) [28]. - As of January 16, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.52 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.20 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. - As of January 16, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.83 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [36]. - In December 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented, but specific data not given in the text summary [41]. **3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation** - A graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd. (603336) is provided, showing the historical price - earnings ratio from September 30, 2020, to September 30, 2024 [43][44].