回落，包装膜备货峰值已过。春节临近，下游企业陆续休假停工，PE需求或延续弱势。成本方面，美国对 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 伊朗等产油国制裁仍存，同时严寒天气可能导致美国产油量下降，国际油价有所上涨。近期市场情绪偏暖 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 ，工业品期货以涨为主、文华工业品指数涨幅显著。不过，从基本面看，塑料向上驱动有限，后市L2605谨 慎看多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 塑料产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 ...

，降库主要集中在内蒙古区域，主产销区尿素企业维持弱平衡，部分企业出现小幅累库，但因东北局域需 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 求推动周边企业出货，整体带动国内尿素企业库存下降，随着春节临近，尿素企业逐渐启动收单计划，清 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 库催发货为主，尿素企业库存或仍有继续小幅去库。UR2605合约短线预计在1770-1830区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 尿素产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| | | -2000附近。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 1973 | 28 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 262814 | -19659 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -29513 | 8167 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 890541 | 206588 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2441 | 30 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2236 | 52 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -29513 | 8167 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 605 | -17 烧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff tension between the US and Europe has eased, but Trump's stance on the acquisition of Greenland remains tough, keeping the short - term risk - aversion sentiment high [2] - In South Africa, the phased load reduction continues, and the risk of power outages during peak night hours restricts the short - term increase in smelter operating rates [2] - The continuous strengthening of the US dollar against the South African rand partially offsets the local currency cost pressure, but a continued depreciation of the rand will suppress marginal supply in US dollars [2] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the substitution demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year [2] - Although global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the rising penetration of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [2] - The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolysers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm, and the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium [2] - The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2] - For London platinum, the upper resistance is at $2900 per ounce, and the lower support is at $2700 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $2100 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum主力合约 is 744.70 yuan/gram, up 65.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium主力合约 is 534.80 yuan/gram, up 35.80 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约持仓 volume is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the palladium主力合约持仓 volume is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 733.25 yuan, up 51.75 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 0.00 yuan, down 463.00 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约 basis is - 11.45 yuan/gram, down 14.00 yuan; the palladium主力合约 basis is - 534.80 yuan/gram, down 498.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] - The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the estimated total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2] - The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the estimated total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.50, down 0.78; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, down 0.03% [2] - The VIX volatility index is 16.09, up 0.45 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US is deploying troops to Iran, imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and sanctioning entities related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [2] - Trump said the US expects to gain "sovereignty" over the area of US military bases in Greenland [2] - Some Democratic senators will vote against the government funding bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government "shutdown" at the end of January [2] - Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, and Rick Rieder's probability of being nominated has risen from 4% to about 50% [2] - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value; the Services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5; the Composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8. All three are slightly lower than expected. The one - year inflation expectation in January 2026 is revised down to 4%, the lowest in a year [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast at 23:30 on January 26 [2] - US M2 money supply at 02:00 on January 28 [2] - Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 03:00 on January 29 [2] - US November trade balance (imports and exports) at 21:30 on January 29 [2] - US PPI year - on - year (%) at 21:30 on January 30 [2]

2、截至2026年1月26日，A股共有921家上市公司披露2025年业绩预告，其中340家预喜（预增234家、略增33家、 扭亏70家、续盈3家），预喜比例为36.91%；579家预忧，2家业绩不确定。 观点总结 重点关注 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 A股主要指数收盘普遍下跌，三大指数早盘集体高开后表现分化，上证指数窄幅震荡深证成指、创业板指震荡下行。大 盘蓝筹股强于中小盘股。截止收盘，上证指数跌0.09%，深证成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%。沪深两市成交额回升 。全市场超3700只个股下跌。行业板块多数下跌，国防军工板块大幅走弱，有色金属、石油石化板块大幅走强。海外 方面，特朗普表示，如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议，会向加拿大征收100%关税。特朗普滥用关税武器，引发市场对 美元资产的不信任，美元指数进一步走弱。国内方面，经济基本面，四季度我国GDP进一步回落，但全年5%经济增长 目标仍顺利完成，12月份除规上工业增加值外，固投、社零、出口同比均较11月回落。个股方面，已发布 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 14645 | -80 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 60 | 40 -6836 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -20304 | -3231 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 155289 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 38938 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 15050 | 100 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9750 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 75 | 180 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.14 | -0.07 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 23861.23 | 11020 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with a focus on the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 140 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is -80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is $3,269/ton, up $58; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 234,796 lots, an increase of 11,768 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,706 lots, an increase of 5,429 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,151 tons (weekly), a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 111,500 tons (daily), a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,680 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is -45 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - 3 - month spread is -$32.62/ton, up $4.04 [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production in the current month is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons (monthly), a decrease of 53,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons (monthly), a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons (monthly), a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons (weekly), an increase of 5,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 27.84% (daily), an increase of 1 percentage point [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.71% (daily), an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75% (daily), an increase of 0.03 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In January, the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high [3]. - The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US. Trump demanded full military liberalization in Greenland and claimed the US would obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland [3]. - The first tri - party talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine since the Russia - Ukraine conflict were held in the UAE. Zelensky and the US presidential envoy said the talks were "constructive", with progress on military issues but no consensus on territorial issues [3]. View Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, squeezing domestic smelter profits and limiting future production [3]. - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, and there is a possibility that the export window will close again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other sectors brings some bright spots [3]. - Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventory has decreased, LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained low [3]. - Technically, the open interest has increased and the price has rebounded, with a warming of the bullish sentiment [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA10, with an expected range between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 425,340 yuan/ton, down 4,230 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract is up 450 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 56,605 US dollars/ton, up 4,728 US dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 55,233 lots, down 1,021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4,973 lots, up 1,468 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,195 tons, up 40 tons. The SHFE tin inventory is 9,720 tons, up 171 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 8,624 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 434,850 yuan/ton, up 14,550 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 437,200 yuan/ton, up 13,460 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 18,780 yuan. The LME tin (0 - 3) spread is - 245 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrates is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 420,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 424,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan. The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 274,330 yuan/ton, up 8,900 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, both the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high. The EU announced a 6 - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the US. There are disputes over Greenland, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks were held in the UAE, with some progress on military issues and no consensus on territorial issues [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in Q1. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. Smelting: Most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production is still limited, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. Import: Indonesia's exports increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. The recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have corrected, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a long - upper - shadow negative line with increasing volume and decreasing positions, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment [3].

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11465 | -100 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 133394 | 1981 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 433 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -47718 | 2182 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, macro shocks continued to provide safe - haven support for the precious metals market, leading to an upward - trending and volatile platinum - palladium market. The short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain high due to uncertainties such as the US tariff plan and Trump's stance on the Greenland acquisition. Supply is restricted by South Africa's power issues and Russia's export conditions, while demand for platinum may increase due to new EU emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will dominate trading, with a likely "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum is expected to trade between $2500/oz and $2800/oz, and London palladium between $1800/oz and $2000/oz [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro factors: The US tariff plan on eight European countries was postponed, but Trump's attitude towards Greenland acquisition is uncertain, keeping short - term risk - aversion high. South Africa's power company maintains load - shedding, limiting smelter short - term production. The weakening of the South African rand may suppress marginal supply in US dollars. Russia has no new export guidance, and the "east - bound sales priority" policy and sanctions continue to affect the palladium trade [7]. - Demand: The EU's new emission standards will increase platinum demand in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although global passenger car sales are slightly down, the growth of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve platinum's long - term demand. The IEA's hydrogen outlook shows potential growth in PEM electrolyzer installations, providing potential support for platinum [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price trends: The platinum - palladium market rose this week, with platinum showing stronger price elasticity due to supply - demand tightness. As of January 23, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures prices increased by 12.43% and 6.09% respectively [8][12]. - Net long positions: As of January 13, 2026, NYMEX platinum's net long positions decreased by 0.45% to 23,806 contracts, and palladium's net long positions decreased by 23.50% to - 2,890 contracts [17]. - Basis: The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week [18]. - Inventory: As of January 22, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 0.24% to 665,888.20 ounces, and palladium inventory increased by 2.54% to 216,266.31 ounces [25]. - Price ratios: The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to early 2025 [26]. - Correlation: The positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index has rebounded recently [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - Trade: As of November 2025, platinum imports and exports decreased [36]. - Demand: The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts has weakened marginally, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is slowly declining [41][46]. - Supply: Due to geopolitical conflicts and power issues, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [52]. - Price difference: The price difference between domestic and international platinum and palladium markets has become more stable [57]. 3.4 Macro and Options - The US dollar index weakened this week under the impact of macro events [61].