报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 一般，不过市场到货同样不多，因此全国不锈钢社会库存维持季节性下降。技术面，持仓增量价格偏强， 多头氛围偏强。观点参考：预计不锈钢期价偏强调整，关注MA5支撑，区间1.45-1.55。 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 不锈钢产业日报 2026-01-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 14650 | -70 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about the global economy and geopolitical instability, and the market awaited demand signals. The ICE March cotton futures contract settled down 0.04 cents, or 0.06%, at 64.30 cents per pound. - In the domestic market, the national cotton commercial inventory is rising, and market supply is relatively sufficient. Brazilian cotton is arriving in large quantities, further increasing the inventory. - On the downstream demand side, the price of high - count yarn is firm, but overall market demand is weak. However, driven by cost, yarn prices remain stable, and the rebound in China's textile and clothing export growth in December still supports the market. - On the market, supported by stocking demand, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 152,789 lots, up 3,158 lots; main contract cotton positions were 799,956 lots, up 12,765 lots; cotton warehouse receipts were 9,944 lots, up 301 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract closed at 20,500 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 1,850 lots, down 189 lots; main contract cotton yarn positions were 15,805 lots, down 1,156 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 59 lots, down 11 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 21,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,514 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 13,684 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price was 21,066 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price was 22,555 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,481 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - Imported cotton profit was 2,135 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days were 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days were 32.34 days, up 0.37 days. - Cloth output was 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output was 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount was 12,275,733 thousand US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility was 12.11%, up 0.12%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility was 12.12%, up 0.16%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility was 14.16%, down 0.02%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility was 9.1%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Cotton textile enterprises' cotton industrial inventory was increasing steadily and was at a high level compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December, the in - stock cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, up 44,200 tons from the end of last month. - Brazil's new cotton sowing continued. As of the week of January 17, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 36.3%, slower than last year but faster than the five - year average, 7.9 percentage points higher than the five - year average. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the cost - support for copper prices from the tight ore supply remains. On the supply side, limited by the tight raw material supply, the output at the end of 2025 only increased slightly, and the output at the beginning of 2026 is also generally stable, with a relatively sufficient domestic supply. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Coupled with the previous high - level operation of copper prices, the downstream purchasing sentiment remains cautious, mainly for rigid demand purchases. Recently, as copper prices have declined from high levels, the downstream adopts a strategy of buying on dips. Therefore, with relatively cautious demand, the off - season effect leads to continuous inventory accumulation of refined copper in the social inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and cautious demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the social inventory. In terms of options, the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0079, and the option market sentiment is bullish, with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly expanding. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 100,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 580.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,753.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 56.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 222,467.00 lots, a decrease of 1320.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 54,818.00 lots, a decrease of 2916.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 159,400.00 tons, an increase of 3100.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 213,515.00 tons, an increase of 32,972.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 46,825.00 tons, a decrease of 975.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 143,173.00 tons, a decrease of 2856.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 100,070.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 100,295.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 22.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 630.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 590.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 29.11 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 130.95 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 46.53 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 1.12 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,590.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 91,290.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 320.00 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, an increase of 10,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,790.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,350.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.90 billion yuan, an increase of 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, an increase of 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, an increase of 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.06%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.38%, an increase of 0.12%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 22.88%, a decrease of 0.0050; the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.54, a decrease of 0.0079 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until the end of Fed Chairman Powell's term in May. This view has changed significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, two aspects of work will be focused on to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry: orderly promoting the construction of "good houses" and accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model and building basic systems for real estate development, financing, and sales. The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to address the problem of abnormally low prices in government procurement, which will take effect on February 1, 2026. As of the end of December 2025, the number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China reached 2.0092 billion, exceeding 2 billion. China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network, meeting the charging needs of over 40 million new energy vehicles. In 2026, the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects in industries such as industry, energy and power, education, medical care, grain and oil processing, customs inspection, old residential elevators, energy conservation and environmental protection, and recycling, driving total investment of over 460 billion yuan. At the same time, funds will be directly allocated to local governments to support the scrapping and renewal of old commercial trucks, the renewal of new energy city buses, and the scrapping and renewal of old agricultural machinery [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production period. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has little change compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments arriving at the port are mainly African rubber. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased compared to the previous period. The inventory accumulation rate of general trade has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises are expected to continue to stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly compared to the previous week. In the short term, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall device production schedule is expected to remain stable. The all - steel tire enterprises still have the phenomenon of controlling production to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 183,011 lots, up 1,899 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 60,827 lots, down 1,231 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 48,754 lots, down 1,397 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,599 lots, up 204 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 55,339 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,600 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 250 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 945 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,163 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 428 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 59.49 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 57.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.3%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.13%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.57%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.58%, up 0.91 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2].

尿素产业日报 2026-01-22 求推动周边企业出货，整体带动国内尿素企业库存下降，随着春节临近，尿素企业逐渐启动收单计划，清 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 库催发货为主，尿素企业库存或仍有继续小幅去库。UR2605合约短线预计在1750-1800区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1776 | -3 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 25 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a volatile adjustment, with the price expected to be in the range of 24,200 - 24,700 yuan/ton. Upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has increased, and processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some bright spots in the automotive sector due to policy support. Downstream purchasers mainly buy on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream procurement has improved, domestic inventories have decreased, LME zinc inventories are stable, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, positions have decreased, prices have adjusted, and the bullish sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the 02 - 03 month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,175 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 218,500 lots, down 117 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,533 lots, up 1,407 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are 76,311 tons, up 2,459 tons; LME inventories are 111,850 tons, down 450 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 40.12 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production value is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; refined zinc exports are 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. Social zinc inventories are 1.122 million tons, up 58,000 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.25%, down 2.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.26%, down 2.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 23.51%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.74%, up 0.02 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations. Later, Trump said that the US reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO and will not impose tariffs on Europe and Canada for the time being. Canadian Prime Minister Carney gave a speech saying that the rules - based order is dead, and middle - power countries should unite to resist coercion from some major powers. Macron called on Europe to like respect rather than bullying and introduce Chinese investment in key areas. The European Parliament announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump said he may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and again hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is stable and demand remains cautious, with the inventory destocking rate slowing down. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly bullish and volatile manner, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 168,780 yuan/ton, up 2,040 yuan from the previous day. The net position of the top 20 was -154,648 lots, up 876 lots [2] - The trading volume of the main contract was 436,686 lots, up 8,758 lots from the previous day. The spread between near - and far - month contracts was -2,280 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 28,886 lots/ton, up 230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 164,500 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan from the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 161,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -4,280 yuan/ton, up 3,960 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,855 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars from the previous day [2] - The average price of amblygonite was 17,350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan from the previous day. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 6,963 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons. The monthly import volume was 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate was 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of power batteries was 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh [2] - The price of lithium manganate was 45,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 147,500 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan [2] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide was 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 197,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China was 195,500 yuan/ton [2] - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 180,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The price of lithium iron phosphate was 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 60%, down 3 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,718,000 units, down 162,000 units. The monthly sales volume was 1,710,000 units, down 113,000 units [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 47.94%, up 0.45 percentage points. The cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase were 16,490,000 units, up 3,624,000 units [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000 units, unchanged. The cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase were 2,615,000 units, up 1,331,000 units [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 82.54%, down 0.85 percentage points. The 40 - day average volatility was 65.79%, down 0.71 percentage points [2] - The total call position was 109,916 contracts, down 1,293 contracts. The total put position was 155,908 contracts, up 3,761 contracts [2] - The total put - call ratio of positions was 141.84%, up 5.0311 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.68%, up 0.0254 percentage points [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a notice to address abnormal low - price issues in government procurement starting from February 1, 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised and issued two review requirements to strengthen the access management of road motor vehicle production enterprises and products [2] - As of the end of December 2025, the number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China reached 20.092 million, and the world's largest charging network has been built [2] - The German government will provide subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles starting from January 1, 2026 [2] - In December 2025, China's cumulative export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate was about 1,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 48.6%, and the cumulative import volume was about 32 tons [2] - In 2026, the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds have been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects and driving total investment of over 460 billion yuan [2] Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract showed a slightly bullish and volatile trend, closing up 2.55%. The trading volume increased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day [2] - In terms of fundamentals, smelters in the raw material segment have sufficient raw material inventory, but their purchasing attitude is cautious due to high ore prices. On the supply side, due to large market fluctuations, upstream producers have different attitudes towards sales, and upstream inventory has accumulated while production remains relatively stable. On the demand side, downstream buyers are sensitive to lithium prices, being cautious when prices are high and mainly purchasing for刚需. When prices fall from high levels, they are more active in inquiring, and spot market transactions have slightly improved. Overall, they mainly focus on digesting inventory and remain cautious. The inventory destocking rate in the lithium carbonate industry has slowed down [2] - In the option market, the put - call ratio of positions was 141.84%, up 5.0311% month - on - month. Market sentiment was bearish, and implied volatility slightly increased [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, both lines were above the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converged [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will experience a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the price range expected to be between 400,000 and 430,000 yuan/ton. On the macro - front, there are various international political and economic speeches. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore is showing signs of relief, the production of refined tin is currently limited but may increase after the New Year, the import pressure is increasing, and the demand side has improved with a decline in inventory and a change in the spot premium situation. Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 409,010 yuan/ton, down 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 890 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 51,417 US dollars/ton, up 2,005 US dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 22,314 lots, down 665 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 5,454 lots, down 1,232 lots. - The LME tin total inventory is 7,210 tons, up 250 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 9,549 tons, up 2,614 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants is 230 tons, unchanged [3]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 8,616 tons, down 52 tons. - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 403,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 403,830 yuan/ton, up 6,060 yuan. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 22,670 yuan/ton, down 18,570 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The average import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, up 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 389,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 393,250 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, down 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 255,370 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, up 144,700 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, up 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - Trump's Davos speech: Greenland is a core US security interest, the US will not take it by force and seeks immediate negotiations, and later said a "framework" agreement on Greenland was reached with NATO and temporarily no additional tariffs on Europe. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's speech: The rules - based order is dead, and medium - sized powers should act together to resist coercion from certain major powers. - Macron's call: Europe prefers respect over bullying and should introduce Chinese investment in key areas. Trump may have selected a person to be the Fed chairman and hopes he is like Greenspan, and hinted that Hassett is "out" [3]. 观点总结 - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue in Q1, and the tin ore processing fee has slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. - On the smelting side, most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin is limited, but there is pressure for production to increase after the New Year. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's export volume increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints, and the recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. - On the demand side, the recent decline in tin prices has improved the downstream purchasing atmosphere, inventory has decreased, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined. - Technically, the position is stable, the price is strong, and the bullish sentiment has warmed up [3].

甲醇产业日报 2026-01-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2260 | 51 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -19 | 4 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 817171 | -31791 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -124400 | 45132 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7675 | -400 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2225 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1795 | -25 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 415 | 50 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -35 | -36 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 262 | 1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 266 | 4 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, most futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose, with the main contract EC2604 down 0.04% and the far - month contracts up 1 - 3%. The full - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products may lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but weakening the support on the spot side. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand. Spot freight rates increased in the fourth week. Geopolitical factors suggest that the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved, and the inflation pressure in the eurozone has eased. Currently, the freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, and the futures price support has weakened. The freight rate market is greatly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1378, down 0.5; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1129.700, up 40.30. EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 43.50, down; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 248.30, down 1.10. EC contract basis: 824.49, down 17.10. EC main contract open interest: 41299, down 512 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1954.19, down 2.10; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1305.27, down 18.71. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1574.12, down 73.27; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 14.96, up; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1582.60, up 14.85 [1] Shipping - related Indexes - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1570.00, down 79.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1729.00, down 49.00. Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; average charter price (Capesize ship): 17000.00, down 2627.00 [1] Industry News - A package of policies for fiscal - financial coordination to boost domestic demand was released, including a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment, guiding banks to increase loans to small and medium - sized private enterprises by 500 billion yuan, and implementing loan interest subsidies for small and medium - sized enterprises in 14 key industrial chains and related fields. Trump said he could use alternative means if the current tariff tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. The European Parliament froze the approval process of the trade agreement with the US, which is a response to Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries [1] Key Data to Watch - January 22, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 17 (in ten thousands), US core PCE price index annual rate in November, US real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value in the third quarter, US real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate final value in the third quarter. January 22, 23:00: Eurozone consumer confidence index preliminary value in January [1]