Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core View - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas has ended, with limited remaining supply and few transactions. Raw material purchases in production areas are based on quality, adhering to the principle of better quality commanding higher prices. In the sales areas, the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has received both finished and sub - standard jujubes, with local processors mainly selling their own processed products and holders actively selling. Downstream merchants make purchases as needed. The Guangdong Ruyifang market mainly receives supplies from Xinjiang, with average transactions. Overall, the market supply is sufficient, but the "peak season without peak demand" situation persists, and short - term weakness is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for jujubes is 8,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20. The main contract's open interest is 114,030 lots, up 995. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,648 lots, up 965. The number of warehouse receipts is 2,105, up 3. The total valid warehouse receipt forecasts are 852, up 341 [2] Spot Market - The prices of Kashgar jujube bulk goods, Hebei first - grade grey jujubes, Alar jujube bulk goods, and Aksu jujube bulk goods remain unchanged at 6.5 yuan/kg, 4.1 yuan/jin, 5.65 yuan/kg, and 5.15 yuan/kg respectively. The wholesale prices of first - grade grey jujubes in Henan and Hebei, and the prices of special - grade jujubes in Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong, as well as the price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong, have either decreased or remained stable. The price of Henan first - grade grey jujubes decreased by 0.2 yuan/jin to 4.15 yuan/jin, and the price of Henan special - grade jujubes decreased by 0.2 yuan/kg to 9.5 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube production is 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons. The jujube planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 15,649 tons, a decrease of 249 tons. The monthly jujube export volume is 3,537,566 kg, an increase of 1,332,346 kg. The cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 29,291,188 kg, an increase of 3,537,566 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of "Hao Xiang Ni" jujubes is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points. The average daily number of trucks arriving at the Ruyifang market is 5.4, an increase of 1.27. The monthly average wholesale price of jujubes is 10.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 yuan/kg [2] Industry News - Five trucks of jujubes have arrived at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, including both sub - standard and finished products. Local processors mainly sell their own processed products, holders are actively selling, and downstream merchants make purchases as needed. Seven trucks of jujubes have arrived at the Guangdong Ruyifang market, mainly from Xinjiang. Some arrival prices are low, the market trading atmosphere is average, downstream merchants make purchases as needed, and the sales area prices have declined compared to pre - holiday levels [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term SH2603 is expected to show a fluctuating trend, with attention on the support around 2090 and the resistance around 2260 [3][4] - The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain generally loose, and the purchase and market prices of the 32% liquid caustic soda main product in Shandong have declined recently [3] - The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January is small, and the previously shut - down devices are restarting one after another. Domestic chlor - alkali devices are expected to maintain a high - operation state [3] - The operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable in the short term, and non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change [3] - Although the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali has narrowed due to the decline in caustic soda prices, it is still in a theoretical profit state [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2194 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main caustic soda contract is 159,963 hands, with a decrease of 15,593 hands [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures is - 14,547 hands, and the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 344,227 hands, with an increase of 30,386 hands [3] - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 1970 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract is 2330 yuan/ton, with an increase of 27 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/ton [3] - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2156.25 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 38 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton [3] - The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, China's caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4% [3] - From December 27 to January 2, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 84.67%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.61% week - on - week to 85.42%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 60.81% [3] - As of January 2, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.84% [3] - From December 25 to January 4, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, a decrease compared with the previous period [3]

Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, the US corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support the price. In the domestic market, the acquisition progress in the Northeast has passed half, and after the New Year's Day, the release of reserve corn and the directional release of imported corn continue. The feed enterprise inventory is at a normal level, and the deep - processing enterprise inventory is relatively low year - on - year. In the Huabei and Huanghuai regions, as the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness to sell grain increases, and the market supply is abundant. The corn futures price is relatively volatile recently, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the supply pressure remains. The starch inventory has increased week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year. However, after the large increase in the price of tapioca starch, some downstream customers have repurchased corn starch, increasing the demand. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2222 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 27 yuan/ton, the open interest of the active contract is 994015 lots (down 7328 lots), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 167858 lots (up 1031 lots), the registered warehouse receipts are 31655 lots (down 7740 lots), and the CS - C spread of the main contract is 313 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2501 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton), the monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 44 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton), the open interest of the active contract is 193513 lots (down 3295 lots), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 33413 lots (down 1803 lots), and the registered warehouse receipts are 12355 lots (unchanged) [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 444.5 cents/bushel (up 7.5 cents), the total open interest is 1543015 contracts (up 26463 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 53192 contracts (down 11680 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2354.51 yuan/ton (down 1.96 yuan/ton), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price of imported corn is 2051.05 yuan/ton (up 3.76 yuan/ton) [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the main corn starch contract is 69 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main corn contract is 132.51 yuan/ton (up 0.04 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons (down 1.58 million tons), in Brazil is not mentioned, in Argentina is 53 million tons (unchanged), in China is 295 million tons (unchanged), and in Ukraine is 32 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - Corn planting areas: The predicted planting areas in the US is 36.44 million hectares (up 0.55 million hectares), in Brazil is not mentioned, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares (unchanged), in China is 44.3 million hectares (unchanged), and in Ukraine is not mentioned [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 65.8 tons (up 15.6 tons), at northern ports is 157 tons (down 31 tons), and the deep - processing corn inventory is 349.4 tons (up 11.6 tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Corn: The monthly import volume is 36 tons (up 30 tons), the monthly feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9 tons), and the sample feed corn inventory days are 29.92 days (up 0.04 days) [2]. - Corn starch: The monthly export volume is 19.17 tons (up 6.39 tons), the starch enterprise inventory is 112.3 tons (up 2.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.64%) [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Corn: The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.28 tons (down 1.42 tons), and the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 63.5% (down 1.38%) [2]. - Corn starch: The starch enterprise operating rate is 59.86% (down 0.6%), the processing profit in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Hebei is 65 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jilin is - 56 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Option Market - For corn options, the 20 - day historical volatility is 11.08% (down 0.32%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.29% (down 0.01%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 10.02% (up 0.53%) [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,206,913 tons, compared with the revised 1,335,028 tons last week and 877,214 tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending December 25, 2025, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2025/26 season was 756,419 tons, compared with 2,202,287 tons in the previous week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The China's RatingDog Services PMI in December 2025 was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US in December unexpectedly recorded the largest contraction since 2024, dragged down by inventories [3]. - On the supply side, the domestic tin ore import supply remains relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees stay at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall tin ore import volume is still at a low level. In the smelting sector, the current shortage of tin ore raw materials and low raw material inventories in most enterprises mean that most enterprises are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that refined tin production will continue to be restricted and lack year - on - year growth. In terms of imports, the significant increase in Indonesia's export volume in November alleviated concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. The recent repair of import losses means that if the import window opens, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the recent high - level correction of tin prices has improved the market's willingness to purchase on opportunity, leading to a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium is volatile. Technically, with the increase in positions and the rise in prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is expected that Shanghai tin will have a short - term strong adjustment, with attention on the 34 support level and a test of the historical high of 35 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 348,820 yuan/ton, with a change of 14,450. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin was 2,758 yuan/ton with a change of 70, and the price of LME 3 - month tin was 42,466 US dollars/ton, with a change of 2,216. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 41,195 lots, and the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin was - 2,355 lots, with a change of 761 [3]. - LME tin total inventory was 5,415 tons (unchanged), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin inventory was 7,936 tons (a decrease of 541 tons week - on - week), LME tin cancelled warrants were 160 tons (unchanged), and SHFE tin warehouse receipts were 7,086 tons (a decrease of 259 tons) [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 341,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 tin spot price was 342,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8,470. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was - 2,770 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6,300, and the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 30.01 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 29.01 [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.16 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 329,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 333,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons, and the monthly import volume of refined tin was 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 218,310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5,960. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) was 1.3901 million tons, with an increase of 0.1447 million tons, and the monthly export volume of tinplate was 222,600 tons, with an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's services activities continued to expand, and this expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang proposed to strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promote the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump warned the "interim president" of Venezuela, and also mentioned that Venezuela may not be the last country to be intervened by the US and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing Index in December decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals declines slightly, and the expectation of tight ore persists, so the cost - support logic of copper prices is solid. The supply of refined copper in China will gradually slow down. The high - level copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the spot market trading sentiment becomes cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and cautious demand, with accumulated social inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward trend. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 105,320 yuan/ton, up 3,970 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,342 US dollars/ton, up 350.5 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 223,647 lots, up 7,332 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 45,864 lots, down 3,287 lots. LME copper inventory is 142,550 tons, down 2,775 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 145,342 tons, up 33,639 tons. The LME copper注销仓单 quantity is 32,650 tons, down 2,125 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 93,271 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 103,665 yuan/ton, up 3,090 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 100,660 yuan/ton, up 1,325 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,655 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.98 US dollars/ton, up 3.38 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 74,700 tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.98 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.08 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,920 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 91,620 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan. The south processing fee of blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the north processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.236 million tons, up 32,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,590 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,950 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.226 million tons, up 222,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 2.15 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 24.32%, up 2.51 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.54%, up 1.85 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 30.27%, up 0.0294 percentage points. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, down 0.0065 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing index dropped slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem. Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to promote green consumption. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in December 2025 is 1.57 million, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 is 15.33 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25%. Gree Electric Appliance promised not to increase the price of household air - conditioners and has no "aluminum for copper" plan [2]

| 分瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | PVC产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4919 | 155 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1740594 | 970429 58848 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1026198 | 68221 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 985727 | | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1064508 | 57356 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -78781 | 1492 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4600 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4492.69 | -13.08 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4700 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material side has a tight copper concentrate supply, and the cost - support logic for copper prices is solid. Supply may gradually shrink due to tight raw materials and approaching holidays, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply is slowing. Demand is affected by high copper prices, and downstream buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and cautious demand, with an increase in social inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a bullish signal. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with light positions, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract is 101,350 yuan/ton, up 3110 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,833 dollars/ton, up 363.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 216,315 lots, up 8069 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 45,864 lots, down 3287 lots. The LME copper inventory is 145,325 tons, down 2100 tons. The SHFE cathode copper inventory is 145,342 tons, up 33,639 tons. The SHFE cathode copper warrant is 90,282 tons, down 2856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,575 yuan/ton, up 1755 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,660 yuan/ton, up 1325 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 775 yuan/ton, down 1355 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 38.6 dollars/ton, up 8.21 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 89,620 yuan/metal ton, up 1610 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 90,320 yuan/metal ton, up 1610 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The monthly output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 67,970 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,050 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 7859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 21.82%, up 1.47 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.69%, up 1.40 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 27.33%, down 0.0101 percentage points. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, up 0.0406 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points month - on - month, all rising to the expansion range. In 2025, the sales of trade - in related goods exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 3.6 billion people. The eurozone's December 2025 manufacturing PMI was 48.8, lower than expected. Fed's Paulson said that if inflation cools, the Fed may further cut interest rates but will not take immediate additional measures. In December 2025, BYD's new - energy vehicle sales were 420,398, down 18.2% year - on - year, with an annual cumulative sales of 4.602436 million, up 7.73% year - on - year, and overseas sales exceeded 1 million for the first time, up 145%. Geely's December 2025 sales were 236,817, up 13% year - on - year, and the annual sales were 3.024567 million, up 39% year - on - year. Many new - energy vehicle brands had record - high December sales, and Leapmotor ranked first with nearly 600,000 annual sales [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For corn: The U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions and a downward - adjusted 2025/26 carry - over stock forecast support the price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, with growers reluctant to sell and most grain in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have some inventory, while deep - processing enterprises' inventory is low year - on - year. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the downstream product prices are weak, so the corn futures price is currently volatile and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For corn starch: With the increase in the new - season corn supply, the industry operation is good but there is still supply - side pressure. As of December 31, the national corn starch enterprise inventory increased. However, due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, some downstream customers repurchase corn starch, increasing its demand. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting is advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2224 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2509 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. - Corn futures trading volume (active contract) is 1001343 lots, down 7918 lots; corn starch futures trading volume (active contract) is 196808 lots, up 1319 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price is 437 cents/bushel, down 4 cents; CBOT corn total trading volume (weekly) is 1516552 contracts, down 6106 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2356.47 yuan/ton, up 0.39 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream - The predicted annual corn output in the U.S. is 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; the predicted sown area is 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2]. Industry - Corn inventory at southern ports is 65.8 tons, up 15.6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.3 tons, up 2.1 tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 tons, up 20.9 tons; the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.4%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.49%, up 0.2% [2]. Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that as of December 30, 84.2% of the expected 2025/26 corn planting area in Argentina was sown, with 83.1% of the sown corn rated as good or excellent [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current national cotton inspection volume in the domestic market has exceeded 6 million tons, with relatively sufficient supply. The ginning mills' cotton processing is nearing completion. Downstream textile enterprises have stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns, mostly making just - in - time purchases. Some regional warehouse inventories have slightly decreased, with overall good outbound shipments. It is expected that the national commercial inventory will still increase. However, in 2026, the expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang is rising, and the new cycle expectation of target price subsidies provides a bottom support, so there is a continuous upward driving force for short - term cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 14,655, up 70; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 180,066, down 1,730; main - contract cotton positions (daily, lots): 889,861, up 29,136; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 6,118, up 406 - Cotton yarn main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20,575, down 10; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 2,248, down 130; main - contract cotton yarn positions (daily, lots): 18,643, down 947; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 19, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B, daily, yuan/ton): 15,615, up 30; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 21,200, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff, daily, yuan/ton): 12,445, down 477; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 20,961, down 12; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty, daily, yuan/ton): 13,633, down 297; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 22,288, up 70 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,585, down 30; industrial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import quantity (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 12, up 3; cotton yarn import quantity (monthly value, monthly, tons): 150,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1,982; commercial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 468.36, up 175.3 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.33, up 0.21; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 32.34, up 0.37 - Cloth output (monthly value, monthly, billion meters): 28.1, up 1.9; yarn output (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 203.9, up 3.8 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 11,593,686, up 590,205.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 12,275,733, up 1,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 15.07, up 1.78; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 15.04, up 1.78 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 8.89, down 0.07; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.9, down 0.31 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 23, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 80,440 lots, a decrease of 2,078 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,073 lots, a decrease of 9,045 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 31,633 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots from the previous week, with a slight reduction in net short positions - The sowing progress of Brazilian cotton is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% in the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Apple产区交易整体略显沉闷，甘肃产区交易尚可，山东、陕西、山西整体交易冷淡，元旦前后冷库包装发货少，交易迟缓[2] - 库内富士好货行情相对稳定，果农一般货源以质论价，产区交易氛围不旺，客商按需采购[2] - 陕西部分果农有让价心理，成交以少量两级货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；山东成交零星，维纳斯等替代苹果按需出库，其余货源交易不多；甘肃客商按需调果农货源，包装发货稳定，走货尚可[2] - 销区市场车厘子、柑橘等水果占据市场热度，节日提振作用受限，短期苹果价格将震荡运行为主[2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果为9547元/吨，主力合约持仓量:苹果为157882手，环比增加23658手[2] - 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果为6134手，环比增加4170手[2] Spot Market - 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75以上)为5.25元/斤，山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75以上)为2.4元/斤，陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70以上半商品)为4.2元/斤，山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80以上一二级果农货)为4元/斤，环比均无变化[2] Upstream Situation - 全国:苹果产量为5128.51万吨，环比增加168.34万吨[2] Industry Situation - 水果批发价:苹果为9.37元/公斤，平均批发价:富士苹果为9.1元/公斤，环比下降0.04元/公斤[2] - 全国苹果冷库总库存为733.56万吨，环比下降10.48万吨；山东苹果库容比为0.52，环比下降0.01；陕西苹果库容比为0.56，环比下降0.01[2] - 苹果:出口数量:当月值为120000吨，环比增加40000吨；苹果:出口金额:当月同比下降216418万美元[2] - 鲜、干水果及坚果:进口金额:当月值为16.2万美元，一二级纸袋苹果80存储商利润为0元/斤，环比无变化[2] Downstream Situation - 水果批发价:鸭梨为6.75元/公斤，水果批发价:香蕉为6.88元/公斤，水果批发价:西瓜为5.81元/公斤，环比分别增加0.03元/公斤、0.05元/公斤、-1.35元/公斤[2] - 广东江门批发市场早间日均到车量为17.25辆，环比下降3.15辆；广东下桥批发市场早间日均到车量为21.25辆，广东槎龙批发市场早间日均到车量为31.75辆，环比下降4.05辆[2] Option Market - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率:苹果为24.07%，环比下降0.39%；平值看跌期权隐含波动率:苹果为24.09%，环比下降0.38%[2]