生猪产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12665 | -130 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 93514 | -531 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 427 | -1 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -23708 | 575 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12700 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 13400 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 35 | 30 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | -1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.4 | -0.4 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2920 | -30 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has slightly decreased, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profits, it shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,125 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,003 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 100,923 lots, up 4,528 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 72 lots, up 960 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 47,289 tons, down 2,086 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 2,375 tons [2]. - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.72 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. - The average starting rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, down 1,900 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the global lead mine output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [2]. - The import volume of lead concentrate is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [2]. - The export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,125.6 points, down 12.42 points; the automobile output is 2.51 million, down 298,600 [2]. - The output of new energy vehicles is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Republican appropriation bill passed by the US House of Representatives failed to pass in the Senate; to avoid a government shutdown, the Democratic leader in the US Congress called for an immediate meeting with Trump [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate [2]. - The US Chief Justice asked Fed Governor Cook to respond to Trump by September 25 [2]. - US senators are seeking to increase pressure on Russia by sanctioning the "shadow fleet" [2]. - The European Commission has passed the 19th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the crude oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing to ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas on January 1, 2027, one year earlier than the original plan [2]. 3.7 Inventory - Both foreign and domestic lead inventories have decreased, as well as the number of warehouse receipts. Overall, the inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong contracted on a month - on - month basis. The chlor - alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple units such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise on a month - on - month basis [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet cut production due to cost, their purchasing intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre - National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3][4]. - In the futures market, there are still expectations for anti - involution and restocking of new alumina plants. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, and the main basis may remain negative. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of new alumina production capacity in the future. The short - term operating range of SH2601 is expected to be around 2580 - 2680 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2604 yuan/ton and 2696 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 37 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 114,144 lots, an increase of 12,443 lots; the trading volume was 477,688 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 11,026 lots, a decrease of 14,988 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 940 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2950 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [3]. - From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month - on - month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - Due to the impact of the shutdown and maintenance of multiple domestic units last week, the capacity utilization rates in various regions decreased to varying degrees. SH2601 fluctuated and declined, closing at 2604 yuan/ton. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [3]. - On the smelting side, the output increase in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan's production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level [3]. - On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, and order recovery is relatively slow. Recently, as tin prices have fallen, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream and terminal enterprises has been released, most have started restocking, the market trading atmosphere has warmed up, domestic inventories have decreased, and the spot premium has rebounded to 300 yuan/ton. LME inventories have decreased, but the spot premium is at a low level [3]. - Technically, with the reduction in positions and the increase in prices, the short - selling sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the 275,000 yuan/ton resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips, with a reference range of 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 272,510 yuan/ton, up 3,740 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin is - 290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,220 US dollars/ton, up 470 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 16,287 lots, down 3,929 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 13 lots, up 1,362 lots; the LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, down 140 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,988 tons, down 909 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 6,600 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,830 yuan/ton, up 3,820 yuan; the basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 510 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 124.41 US dollars/ton, up 30.59 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 176,900 yuan/ton, up 2,190 yuan; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate [3]. - ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target, but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna says the current interest rate level is appropriate, and the central bank is capable of dealing with downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras says the current interest rate is in a good equilibrium and no further easing is needed [3]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Today, there is no news. The focus is on the 275,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now or go long lightly on dips, with a reference range of 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, though the production profit of steel mills has improved notably due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively small rise in raw material costs, and the steel production in August is expected to increase [2]. - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, leading to an increase in market purchasing willingness and the release of previously accumulated orders. Meanwhile, holders are more willing to sell, the domestic market is in a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,910 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan increase; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 125 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,880 lots, with a 3,480 - lot increase; the main contract position is 130,017 lots, with a 1,168 - lot decrease; the warehouse receipt quantity is 89,377 tons, with a 355 - ton decrease [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with a 1,120 - ton increase; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, with a 200 - metal - ton decrease; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with a 21,018.74 - ton increase; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, with a 205,500 - ton decrease; the SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, with a 50 - yuan decrease; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a 26,900 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7379 million tons, with a 39,800 - ton increase; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 558,800 tons, with a 5,200 - ton decrease; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a 29,500 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, with a 4.84168 million - square - meter increase; the monthly excavator production is 24,700 units, with a 2,100 - unit decrease; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, with a 1,900 - unit decrease; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks it is appropriate to cut rates twice more this year [2]. - ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna believes the current interest rate level is appropriate and the central bank can handle downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras thinks the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]. - On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the production capacity of Indonesian ferronickel is accelerating its release, and production has rebounded significantly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend during Monday's trading session, with gold and silver futures prices hitting new all - time highs. After the interest rate cut bullish factors were realized, the market selling pressure increased significantly, and the market entered a wide - range volatile correction starting last Wednesday. On Friday night, driven by the warming trading sentiment, the precious metals market continued to break through strongly, and the silver futures prices at home and abroad hit new all - time highs. Beyond the interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical conflicts and the intensifying US government debt problem are structurally bearish for the US dollar, providing strong support for the gold price. In the future, after the gold and silver prices quickly break through important levels, they may face upward resistance and the callback pressure gradually increases. There is a high possibility that the gold and silver prices will enter a phase of consolidation after hitting new highs. The market's strong bullish sentiment towards the precious metals market may become more cautious, and the subsequent market trend will still depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. Interval band trading is recommended, and short positions can be lightly established on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 846.5 yuan/gram, up 15.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 10317 yuan/kilogram, up 346 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 260256 lots, up 20079 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 504051 lots, up 70069 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 174322 lots, up 2828 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 128977 lots, down 6586 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 57429 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1148624 kilograms, down 10819 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 835.4 yuan/gram, up 9.5 yuan; the silver spot price was 10167 yuan/kilogram, up 306 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 11.1 yuan/gram, down 6.44 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 150 yuan/kilogram, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, up 18.9 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15205.14 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266410 contracts, up 4670 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 51538 contracts, down 2399 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.43%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.66%, down 0.01% [2] 3.4 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 17.62%, down 4.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 17.63%, down 5.01% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Wall Street is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates faster and more significantly in the future. The futures market bets that the Fed's benchmark short - term interest rate will fall below 3% by the end of next year. US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, forcing both sides to negotiate to avoid a government shutdown. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund to promote US factory and infrastructure construction. The EU Commission passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply cost is affected by the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, and the premium of domestic nickel ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of several smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the spot premium has risen slightly, and domestic inventories have decreased; overseas LME inventories have increased. Technically, the price is adjusting, and both long and short positions are cautious in trading. Attention should be paid to the competition around the MA60. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being and go long with a light position at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is -160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,270 US dollars/ton, down 65 US dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 45,068 lots, down 5,353 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is -30,686 lots, down 1,397 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,900 tons, up 456 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 29,834 tons, up 2,334 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,752 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,536 tons, down 307 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -179.4 US dollars/ton, down 1.57 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,400.11 million tons, up 13.95 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.2 million metal tons, down 0.02 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 55.88 million tons, down 0.52 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that two more rate cuts this year are appropriate. ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target, but uncertainties remain; ECB Governing Council member Scicluna says the current interest rate level is appropriate, and the central bank is capable of dealing with downside risks; Governing Council member Stournaras says the current interest rate is in a good balance and no further easing is needed [2]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-09-22 预计小幅调整、变化不大。库存回归去化周期，只是目前库存压力仍偏高。成本方面，OPEC+增产影响持 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 续，全球原油中长期供强于需预期给到油价一定压力，只是短期地缘局势仍有不确定性。EB2511盘面趋势 免责声明 偏弱，日度K线关注6800附近支撑。 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 6928 405128 | -64 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 手) 19939 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 253473 6928 | -10606 -64 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 379614 | 43085 前20名持仓:净买单 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,130 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of devices such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Zhongying Petrochemical, last week's PE production and capacity utilization increased month - on - month. Downstream demand seasonally recovered, driving the downstream start - up rate of PE to rise month - on - month. Last week, the production enterprise inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory pressure was not large. This week, only a new 350,000 - ton high - density device of Baolai was added, and devices such as Yulong, Guoneng Xinjiang, and Jinhai Chemical restarted. PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise month - on - month. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton low - density device is expected to be put into production within the month, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium and long term. The greenhouse film has entered the peak season, and agricultural film orders have continued to pick up; packaging film orders still have room for growth. With the upcoming long holiday, downstream stocking demand is released. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, and the medium - and long - term supply - exceeding - demand expectation of global crude oil puts some pressure on oil prices, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term geopolitical situation. The supply - demand game of LLDPE is expected to operate in the daily range of around 7,100 - 7,200 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7,130, down 39; 1 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,130, down 39; 5 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,187, down 36; 9 - month contract closing price: polyethylene was 7,229, down 21. The trading volume (daily, lots) was 210,963, an increase of 9,252; the open interest (daily, lots) was 580,839, an increase of 24,526. The 9 - 1 spread was 81, down 11. The long position volume of the top 20 futures holders of polyethylene (daily, lots) was 422,702, an increase of 18,531; the short position volume was 478,391, an increase of 16,583; the net long position volume was - 55,689, an increase of 1,948 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,193.48, down 19.57; the average price in East China (daily, yuan/ton) was 7,318.81, down 8.1. The basis was 63.48, an increase of 19.44 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in the Singapore region (daily, US dollars/barrel) was 64.51, down 0.29; the CFR middle price of naphtha in the Japanese region (daily, US dollars/ton) was 596.75, down 2.63. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 841, unchanged; the CFR middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) was 846, down 5 [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate (daily, %) was 80.36, an increase of 2.32 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film (weekly, %) was 51.78, an increase of 0.48; the operating rate of PE pipes (weekly, %) was 31.83, an increase of 0.16; the operating rate of PE agricultural film (weekly, %) was 26.75, an increase of 2.63 [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) was 4.93, down 1.1; the 40 - day historical volatility (daily, %) was 6.04, down 0.91. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene (daily, %) was 10.21, an increase of 0.16; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily, %) was 10.2, an increase of 0.15 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's PE weekly production increased by 2.97% month - on - month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 2.23% month - on - month to 80.36%. From September 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month - on - month, among which the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 2.6% month - on - month. As of September 17th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 490,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%; as of September 15th, the social inventory of PE was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44%. As of September 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week - on - week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton week - on - week to 893 yuan/ton [3].

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-09-22 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 。近期锌价跌至低位，下游维持按需采购动作，提货节奏扔较慢，但到货量偏少，国内社库下降，现货升 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 水略升；海外LME库存下降明显，现货升水走高，对锌价构成支撑。技术面，持仓增量价格回升，多空交 投分歧，关注22000关口争夺。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/ ...