Report Category - This is a daily report on the pure benzene industry [1] Core Viewpoint - BZ2603 showed a weak oscillation, closing at 5921 yuan/ton. Last week, two new petroleum benzene plants were shut down, and some hydrobenzene plants restarted, resulting in a decline in domestic pure benzene supply. The weighted operating rate of downstream products increased slightly. The port inventory of pure benzene decreased. This week, some petroleum benzene and hydrobenzene plants are expected to restart, and the number of imported cargo arrivals is expected to increase, so the supply of pure benzene is expected to rise. The five major downstream devices are expected to increase their loads, which may drive short - term demand up. In the long - term, the large - scale production capacity of styrene is in the rotation maintenance cycle, limiting the increase in pure benzene demand. Near the National Day, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises may support the price of pure benzene. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, and the long - term expectation of strong global crude oil supply over demand puts pressure on oil prices, but the short - term geopolitical situation is still uncertain. In the short term, the supply - demand of pure benzene has marginal improvement but is difficult to drive up prices. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate, with the daily operating range expected to be around 5900 - 5980 [2] Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract was 5921 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the settlement price was 5922 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the trading volume was 2420 lots, and the open interest was 13202 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions were 5885 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 5900 yuan/ton, and 5956 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 40, 0, and - 44 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions were 6050 yuan/ton and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, with the former down 50 yuan/ton. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea was 713 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton, and the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China was 731.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 67.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.6 dollars/barrel; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 596.75 dollars/ton, down 2.63 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 45.01 tons, down 0.54 tons; the port inventory was 13.4 tons, down 1 ton; the production cost was 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 73.44%, 95.72%, 78.54%, 69.24%, and 64.3% respectively, with changes of - 1.54, + 6.41, - 0.46, - 0.1, and + 2 percentage points [2] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene in China decreased by 0.94% to 78.35%, and the capacity utilization rate of hydrobenzene increased by 5.35% to 59.94%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.74% to 74.29%. As of September 22nd, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 10.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.15%. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of petroleum benzene decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton [2]

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/9/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1653.9 | 1093.700 | | 21.4↑ EC次主力收盘价 | +27.80↑ | | 期货盘面 | +19.30↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 -479.90 EC2510-EC2512价差 | -560.20 | | | +32.10↑ | | EC合约基差 | -228.52↓ | 161.22 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -1685↓ | 46030 | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -185.32↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,193.64 | 1440.24 | | | -156.20↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -199.90↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a complex situation. In the short - term, there is a game between weak supply - demand and cost support. The V2601 daily K - line is concerned about the support near 4900 yuan/ton. - The PVC social inventory continues to increase, with high pressure. The terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is in a wait - and - see state. - Currently, both calcium carbide and ethylene processes are in continuous losses. There are no planned new maintenance devices in the short term, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week due to the restart of some devices. New capacity is about to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC (V2601) is 4938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume is 824910 hands, up 36539 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 104363 hands, down 2087 hands [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4786.54 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4851.25 yuan/ton, up 19.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton (unchanged) [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions has increased. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at - 575 yuan/ton. The intermediate prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.96%, down 2.98%. The social inventory of PVC is 53.46 tons, up 0.3 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment have all increased [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC have decreased. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options have increased slightly [3]. 3.2. Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%, and the downstream operating rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.21% to 39.43% [3]. - As of September 18th, the PVC social inventory was 95.37 tons, up 2.03% from the previous week. The weekly average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 5631 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom under the influence of policy signals. Recently, the market has been sensitive to negative news, with weak overall recovery momentum. There is a certain deviation between short - term pricing and fundamentals, and sentiment has become the main driving factor. However, in the context of a weak economic recovery, the possibility of a trend - like decline in the bond market is low, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and also pay attention to the term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.975，涨幅0.2%，成交量79097，环比减少61100；TF主力收盘价105.770，涨幅0.13%，成交量50317，环比减少41922；TS主力收盘价102.398，涨幅0.04%，成交量28858，环比减少6939；TL主力收盘价115.130，涨幅0.22%，成交量113691，环比减少65848 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.34，环比增加0.02；T2512 - 2603价差0.35，环比增加0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.13，环比增加0.00；TS2512 - 2603价差0.07，环比减少0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.16，环比减少0.19；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.21，环比减少0.05；TS12 - T12价差 - 5.58，环比减少0.11；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.37，环比减少0.06 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量226111，前20名空头持仓215122，增加1880，前20名多头持仓增加4384，前20名净空仓209576，增加4004；TF主力持仓量133337，增加2976，前20名多头持仓122634，增加1910，前20名空头持仓131714，增加3231，前20名净空仓9080，增加1321；TS主力持仓量69343，增加1123，前20名多头持仓56152，减少881，前20名空头持仓59654，减少2318，前20名净空仓3502，减少1437；TL主力持仓量147058，增加151，前20名多头持仓129337，增加3129，前20名空头持仓140904，增加1006，前20名净空仓11567，减少2123 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(6y)净价106.2484，增加0.1339；250018.IB(6y)净价99.0955，增加0.0632；230006.IB(4y)净价105.3031，减少0.0782；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，增加0.0519；250012.IB(1.7y)净价99.943，增加0.0042；220016.IB(2y)净价101.9621，增加0.0046；230009.IB(17y)净价120.494，增加0.2314；210014.IB(18y)净价126.6235，减少0.5765 [2] 3.5 Treasury Bond Active Bonds - 1y收益率1.3900%，持平；3y收益率1.5100%，增加9.25bp；5y收益率1.6050%，增加2.20bp；7y收益率1.7250%，增加2.50bp；10y收益率1.7950%，增加1.25bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.4319%，减少5.81bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.4270%，减少3.40bp；银质押7天利率1.5167%，减少1.33bp；Shibor7天利率1.4660%，减少2.20bp；银质押14天利率1.6500%，增加2.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.6750%，增加2.80bp；1y LPR利率3.00%，持平；5y LPR利率3.5%，持平 [2] 3.7 Open Market Operations - 发行规模2405亿，到期规模2800亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净回笼 - 395亿 [2] 3.8 Industry News - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance. In the future, multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity. - On September 22, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. Starting from September 19, the 14 - day reverse repurchase operations in the open market have been adjusted. - The LPR quotation in September remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2] 3.9 Key Points to Focus On - On September 24 at 00:35, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook. - On September 26 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for August will be released [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The market situation of oversupply persists, causing the market price to be under pressure and run weakly. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live hog futures [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 12,795 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the main contract position is 94,045 lots, down 2,706 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 428 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -24,283 lots, up 1,521 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of live hogs in Henan Zhumadian is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 12,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 13,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main basis of live hogs is 5 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory is 42.447 million heads, up 716,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, down 1,000 heads [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is -0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,358.43 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 893.59, down 4.44. The monthly output of feed is 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is -199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs is -24.44 yuan/head, down 41.28 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 3.166 million heads, up 160,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the daily national live hog出栏量 of key breeding enterprises was 290,124 heads, up 6.38% from Friday. In the short term, the supply side has pressure, and the breeding side is actively selling. The demand side is gradually warming up, but the overall growth is limited [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/9/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 73,420.00 | -540.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -152,646.00 | +1949.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 271,624.00 | -9640.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -280.00 | 0.00 | | | 广期所仓单（ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Report's Core View - The market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing certain support at the lower end. It is recommended to take short - long positions as the main strategy [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 713 yuan; the main contract position is 93,887 lots, an increase of 10,714 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 352 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the weekly capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82%; the weekly capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 69.739 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 645.5 million US dollars, a decrease of 153.3065 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 3.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 20.2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 31.8 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.12%, an increase of 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.12%, an increase of 0.58% [2] Industry News - In the western production area, there is little remaining stock of early - maturing Fuji apples, with poor quality, and transactions are priced according to quality. The transactions of Red Star and Huaniu apples are in progress, and the transaction prices are acceptable. In the Shandong production area, the supply of Red General apples has decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm of buyers is okay, with transactions through bargaining. The remaining stock of local stored Fuji apples has slightly poor quality, and the sales are slow, with the market price under pressure. For the new - season apples, the transaction price of Red General apples in Shandong varies widely due to quality, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious. The transactions of early - maturing Fuji apples in the western region are coming to an end, and the picking - green Fuji apples are waiting to color, with a small number of merchants starting to place orders at a price higher than the same period last year. The preparations for the Double Festival are progressing, the bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji apples is sporadic, and the rainfall in the western region may delay the large - scale bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji apples [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from last week. Affected by the transactions of medium - maturing varieties, the sales speed of the stored apples in the Shandong production area has slowed down. The capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The inventory - removal speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down, and local small merchants tend to choose Red General apples with lower prices. The price of high - quality goods in the warehouse is relatively stable, while the price of farmers' goods is weak. However, the market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing certain support at the lower end [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton investment [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - New cotton has started to be available in small quantities, with a significant increase in production in the new season. Given the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,610 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,675 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,395 lots, down 804 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 467 lots, up 10 lots [2] - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 522,277 lots, up 13,028 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 16,034 lots, down 1,410 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, down 136; for cotton yarn, it was 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,705 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,284 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the FCIndexM with sliding - scale duty was 14,152 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,433 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,703 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,481 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton was 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; for cotton yarn, it was 110 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The profit from importing cotton was 1,059 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the坯布 inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2027.9 thousand tons, up 36.4 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1414.59 million US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 1239.32 million US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 11.83%, up 0.37%; for at - the - money put options, it was 11.8%, up 0.35% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.14%, down 1.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.96%, down 0.25% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton farmers' branch surveyed 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provinces and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The national cotton sown area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [2] - As of the week ending September 16, about 41% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 32% the previous week [2] - From September 5 - 11, 2025, the net export signing volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 42.2 thousand tons, a 44% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. China signed to import 998 tons [2] - The shipment volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 27.3 thousand tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [2] - The survey showed that the national cotton output in 2025 was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, an 8.3% year - on - year increase, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/9/22 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Relevant Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F30825507, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number Z0020723 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the A - share major indices closed up collectively. The three major indices fluctuated widely, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly. Most industry sectors fell, with the social services sector leading the decline and the electronics sector strengthening significantly [2] - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The RMB weakened slightly recently due to this news. Domestically, in August, the growth rates of social retail, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and industrial added value of large - scale industries all declined significantly and were weaker than market expectations. The real estate market also showed an accelerating weakening trend. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 narrowed significantly, reaching the lowest level since June 2021, which may reflect the continuous improvement of residents' consumption willingness [2] - In the context of the low net interest margin of banks, the unchanged LPR quotation is in line with market expectations. Overall, the economic data in August was still under pressure, with real estate dragging down fixed - asset investment and the marginal weakening of the "trade - in" policy pressuring social retail. However, the previously announced financial data showed that residents were shifting from excess savings to increased consumption. Since financial data has a certain leading effect, it is expected to be reflected in subsequent economic data [2] - Although Powell's hawkish remarks pressured the RMB in the short term, the dot - plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year. The subsequent depreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease, providing room for domestic policy easing. Stock indices still have long - term upward potential. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4484.0, up 13.6; the IC main contract (2512) was at 7013.2, up 14.2; the IM main contract (2512) was at 7230.2, up 28.0 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. all increased. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1583.8, up 10.0 [2] - **Futures Term Structure**: The differences between the current - season, next - season, and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends. For example, IF current - season - current - month was - 22.4, up 0.2; IC current - season - current - month was - 130.2, down 9.2 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 25,689.00, up 1742.0; the IM top 20 net position was - 43,049.00, down 119.0 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4522.61, up 20.7; the CSI 500 was at 7,225.1, up 54.8 [2] - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all decreased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 38.6, down 1.1; the IC main contract basis was - 211.9, down 25.6 [2] Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume was 21,424.63 billion yuan, down 2069.50 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 23,981.85 billion yuan, down 42.81 billion yuan; the north - bound trading volume was 3263.94 billion yuan, down 453.97 billion yuan [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 40.08%, up 4.90%; the Shibor was 1.427%, down 0.034%; the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2510) was 91.40, up 4.00; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option was 20.86%, down 0.31% [2] Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares was 5.30, up 1.30; the technical aspect was 4.00, up 0.50; the capital aspect was 6.70, up 2.30 [2] Key Data to Follow - September 23, 15:15 - 16:30: France, Germany, Eurozone, UK September SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary values; 21:45: US September SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value [3] - September 26, 20:30: US August personal expenditure/income, PCE, core PCE [3] - September 27, 9:30: China's August industrial enterprise profits of large - scale industries [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply glut of industrial silicon remains unchanged, and the total demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Today, the price of industrial silicon opened high and closed low, and the RSI indicator was overbought, with a short - term need to pull back, but the decline space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan; the position of the main contract was 285,490 lots, a decrease of 25,607 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 54,753 lots, an increase of 1,771 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 49,874 lots, an increase of 3 lots. The closing price of the December contract was - 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts was - 390 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 550 yuan/ton. The average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons. The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.54 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.09 US dollars/kg. The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.12%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The EU has introduced the Net - Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the EU Solar Charter to achieve a target of at least 30GW of locally - manufactured solar photovoltaic products by 2030 [2]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: This Thursday, the spot market price of industrial silicon mainly fluctuated upwards compared with last Friday. The current operating rate was 33.12%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points. There were production cut expectations in the southwest region, and some enterprises had put production cuts on the agenda. Most manufacturers in the southwest said they would operate until the end of October and had no plans to resume production thereafter. The northwest region had an electricity price advantage, and the factory operation was stable. In the Yili region, the operation was relatively optimistic, and large factories had expectations of resuming production. Although the operating rate decreased, the overall supply glut situation had not improved [2]. - **Demand Side**: - **Organic Silicon**: The organic silicon market declined, profits decreased, and the expectation of production increase in the organic silicon industry declined, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory of the polysilicon industry increased, the operating rate increased, and the demand for industrial silicon increased. Polysilicon enterprises raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work increased. However, the price increase in the downstream link was limited, and in the long run, the demand in the photovoltaic industry was expected to shrink, which might limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The overall inventory continued to rise significantly, the price remained flat, the operation of the aluminum alloy industry was stable, but the demand performance was average, and the pull on industrial silicon was limited [2].