Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures price declined on Wednesday due to the unclear US biofuel proposal policy, which led to a significant drop in the US soybean oil futures price and dragged down the domestic oil market. In the short term, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the market shows a volatile trend. The heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia, has affected at least 7 counties, and as one of the main palm oil producing areas, the market is worried about its impact on palm picking and transportation. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 2.5% compared with the same period in August [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract was 9304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 423179 hands, a decrease of 12824 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 1570 hands, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 9011 hands, a decrease of 16510 hands; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil was 4414 Malaysian ringgit/ton, an increase of 31 ringgit; the settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil was 64.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.47 dollars [2] Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 9380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Tianjin was 9440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars; the CNF price was 1148 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the palm oil main contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly production of Malaysian palm oil was 1685962 tons, an increase of 298531 tons; the export volume was 1102266 tons, an increase of 96719 tons; the ending inventory was 1865537 tons, an increase of 302720 tons. The monthly production of Indonesian palm oil was 528.9 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons; the export volume was 360.6 million tons, an increase of 94.6 million tons; the inventory was 253 million tons, a decrease of 39 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs caliber) was 16 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil was 120.3 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons; the weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil was 60.77 million tons, a decrease of 2.13 million tons. The import cost of Malaysian palm oil was 9746.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.61 yuan. The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, was 8480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian, was 10240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil was 11.36 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28.22 dollars; the price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The annual food consumption of palm oil in Malaysia was 870 thousand tons, an increase of 5 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 3100 thousand tons, unchanged. In Indonesia, the food consumption was 7400 thousand tons, an increase of 200 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 13750 thousand tons, an increase of 500 thousand tons. In China, the food consumption was 3600 thousand tons, a decrease of 100 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 2300 thousand tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil was 16.64%, a decrease of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.63%, a decrease of 0.29%. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.24%, an increase of 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, an increase of 0.14% [2] Industry News - The Sabah state government in Malaysia canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration due to heavy rain and floods in at least 7 counties. The SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 15, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.05% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 6.94%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and aquaculture season boosts demand. However, soybean meal substitution and potential increase in domestic soybean imports suppress the market. Recently, rapeseed meal has been weakly adjusting, and short - term participation is recommended, focusing on the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - For rapeseed oil, terminal consumption is weakly boosted by the start of school, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is loose. But low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases. Affected by the decline of soybean and palm oil, rapeseed oil has been weakly adjusting, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 9984 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2470 yuan/ton, ICE rapeseed is 626.7 Canadian dollars/ton (down 13.8 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5299 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan). - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 489 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 113 yuan/ton. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 326231 lots (down 10512 lots), and rapeseed meal is 385353 lots (down 13964 lots). - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil is 17846 lots (down 5040 lots), and rapeseed meal is - 34577 lots (up 7103 lots). - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil is 8202 sheets, and rapeseed meal is 9504 sheets (down 600 sheets) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2570 yuan/ton, rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, and the average price of rapeseed oil is 10125 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The import cost of rapeseed is 7838.36 yuan/ton (down 158.53 yuan). - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 76 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan), and rapeseed meal main contract basis is 100 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). - Substitute prices: The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8530 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2950 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The oil - meal ratio is 3.84 (down 0.02) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and domestic rapeseed annual forecast production is 12378 thousand tons. - Rapeseed imports are 17.6 tons (down 0.85 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 754 yuan/ton (down 112 yuan). - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79% (down 0.27%). - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal imports are 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons (down 1.05 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons (down 0.05 tons). - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 52.12 tons (down 1.08 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 30 tons (down 1.51 tons). - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.1 tons (down 0.45 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 tons (down 1.3 tons). - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 4.33 tons (up 1.3 tons), and rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.57 tons (up 0.83 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2827.3 tons (down 110.4 tons), and the monthly catering revenue is 4495.7 billion yuan (down 8.4 billion yuan). - Edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.92% (up 0.35%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.9% (up 0.34%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.18% (up 1.23%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.34% (up 0.14%). - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.56% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.55% (down 0.7%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 10.36% (up 2.45%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.88% (up 0.14%) [2]. Industry News - The US EPA proposes to re - allocate the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the SRE program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% allocation. - On Wednesday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.98% due to negative production data from Statistics Canada and a weak external market. - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels per acre, slightly lower than last month's estimate but higher than analysts' expectations. The production estimate is raised to 4.301 billion bushels, and the ending inventory estimate is raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels. - Statistics Canada reports that the Canadian rapeseed crop production estimate is 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is underway [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean market, it is currently in the transition period between old and new soybeans, with the spot market operating steadily. Future focus should be on the listing rhythm of new soybeans and changes in downstream actual demand [2]. - For soybeans in the international market, according to the September USDA monthly report, although the yield per unit decreased, the planting area increased, leading to a slight increase in production to 4.301 billion bushels. The end - of - season inventory increased to 300 million bushels due to changes in demand. Market expectations for an effective procurement agreement from the Sino - US talks are low, and if the talks fail, US soybean exports will face further decline and demand pressure [2][3]. - For the domestic soybean meal market, downstream demand is weak, feed enterprise inventory is low, and oil mill inventory is accumulating. Recent policies also limit the feed demand for soybean meal, suppressing its price [3]. - For the domestic soybean oil market, due to sufficient soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates, supply is abundant. Although there is some increase in demand from schools and canteens, overall downstream inventory and supply enthusiasm are general, and inventory accumulation restricts prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main soybean No.1 contract was 3904 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the main soybean No.2 contract was 3660 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the main soybean meal contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main soybean oil contract was 8284 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan. The settlement price of the active CBOT soybean contract was 1043.75 cents/bushel, down 6 cents; the CBOT soybean meal contract was 285.7 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars; the CBOT soybean oil contract was 51.78 cents/pound, down 1.42 cents [2]. - Contract positions: The main contract positions of soybean No.1 were 228,957 lots, up 2438 lots; soybean No.2 were 128,296 lots, up 2270 lots; soybean meal were 2,071,291 lots, up 1066 lots; soybean oil were 574,844 lots, down 13,601 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybean No.1 were - 40,493 lots, up 5031 lots; soybean No.2 were 1877 lots, up 2435 lots; soybean meal were - 743,277 lots, up 18,474 lots; soybean oil were - 117,616 lots, down 8302 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 were 7878 lots, down 44 lots; soybean No.2 were 100 lots, unchanged; soybean meal were 29,065 lots, unchanged; soybean oil were 24,544 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Domestic soybean spot price was 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean oil in Rizhao was 8420 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 8480 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Zhanjiang was 8590 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The basis of domestic soybean main contract was 76 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean oil main contract was 196 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean meal main contract was - 43 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 4015 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - US soybean production was 117.98 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the end - of - season inventory was 8.44 million tons, up 0.41 million tons. Brazilian production was 175 million tons, unchanged; the end - of - season inventory was 39.96 million tons, up 5.67 million tons [2]. - The weekly inspection volume of soybeans was 29,681 thousand bushels, up 12,997 thousand bushels; the weekly export volume was 233,601 tons, down 173,006 tons. Brazilian monthly exports were 6.75 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Port inventory of imported soybeans was 6,622,320 tons, up 18,340 tons; weekly soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 0.0282 million tons; national port inventory of soybean oil was 1.203 million tons, up 0.002 million tons. The monthly import volume of soybeans was 11.6663 million tons, down 0.5976 million tons [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate was 66.35%, up 1.59 percentage points; the weekly oil mill crushing volume was 2.3604 million tons, up 0.0565 million tons [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian was 10,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The daily soybean - palm oil price difference was - 790 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil price difference was 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the daily average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2636.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 313.16 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The weekly trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills was 823,400 tons, up 304,600 tons; the weekly trading volume of soybean oil in oil mills was 81,500 tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 29 yuan/ton, down 59.2 yuan; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 57.35 yuan/ton, down 52.05 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - China's annual total domestic soybean consumption was 126.8 million tons, up 5.1 million tons; China's annual food consumption of soybean oil was 18.8 million tons, up 0.9 million tons [2]. - The daily price of live pigs (external ternary) in Daxing, Beijing was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the weekly expected profit of pig farming was - 52.03 yuan/head, down 16.26 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 28.273 million tons, down 1.104 million tons; the monthly live pig inventory was 42.447 million heads, up 0.716 million heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4.042 million heads, down 10,000 heads [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal was 11.37%, down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal was 11.36%, down 0.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal was 13.17%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 11.79%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to industry analysts' surveys, as of the week ending September 11, the net increase in US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 0.4 - 1.5 million tons; the net increase in US soybean meal exports is expected to be 0.1 - 0.4 million tons; the net change in US soybean oil exports is expected to be a decrease of 5000 tons to an increase of 41,000 tons [2]. - In the production areas of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong, the remaining inventory of local soybeans has been basically cleared. Most traders are in the equipment maintenance stage after inventory clearance, and some have turned to purchasing new soybeans from Hubei, which supports local soybean prices. The sales areas are also cautious, closely monitoring the listing process of new soybeans [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

企业出口订单将执行到本月底。本周尿素企业库存继续小幅增加，局部低价吸引下游适当补仓，但国内整 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 体需求不及供应，尿素日产仍有提升趋势，加之尿素企业面临国庆收单，预计短期尿素企业库存或继续累 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -11 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -2 -1231 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 286823 | 5335 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -40881 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8188 | -80 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1680 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1660 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to repeated rainy weather in Henan, the drying conditions are poor, resulting in inconsistent moisture control of new peanuts. Currently, the supply of dry peanuts is still slow. The market trading atmosphere is sluggish, with small - scale transactions. Traders mainly make rigid purchases, and large - scale oil mills continue to wait and see, with low demand for pressing operations. Pay attention to the supply release rhythm as wheat - stubble peanuts are expected to be on the market in late September [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the peanut main contract is 7858 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 95899 lots, a decrease of 45810 lots. The open interest is 131301 lots, a decrease of 882 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 15571 lots, an increase of 3003 lots [2]. Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - using peanuts is 7572.9 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.6 yuan/ton. The national average price of peanuts is 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Henan common peanuts is 8400 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong common peanuts is 8200 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - China's estimated peanut production is 19 million tons, a decrease of 21.7 million tons. The global peanut production forecast is 51.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. China's estimated peanut harvest area is 4.85 million hectares, a decrease of 0.13 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 9.47%, an increase of 4.21%. The peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 65560 tons, a decrease of 7080 tons. The monthly import volume of peanut kernels is 9.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 18.17 thousand tons. The monthly export volume of peanut kernels is 9.01 thousand tons, an increase of 0.47 thousand tons. The processing profit of peanut oil in Henan is 74.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing profit of peanut oil in Shandong is 124.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton. The global forecast of peanut ending inventory is 4.24 million tons, unchanged. The global forecast of peanut crushing volume is 19.27 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 14670 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 15300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume of peanut oil is 41643.75 tons, an increase of 3026.9 tons. The monthly export volume of peanut oil is 899.44 tons, an increase of 263.77 tons. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 5940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.33, unchanged. The annual forecast of peanut oil production is 3491.6 thousand tons, unchanged. The global forecast of peanut oil production is 6.28 million tons, and the global forecast of domestic peanut oil consumption is 6.24 million tons, both unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 8.19%, a decrease of 0.19%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 7.83%, an increase of 0.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.43%, a decrease of 0.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.43%, a decrease of 0.86% [2]. Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises is 9.47%, an increase of 4.21% compared with the previous week [2]. Key Focus - There is no news today [2]

不锈钢产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12875 | -60 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -110 | -15 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -18199 | -1400 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 132228 | 4478 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 90146 | -5119 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13850 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 545 | 60 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.2 | -0.02 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 38234.02 | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 53490 | -180 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2585 | -60 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 126234 | -1545 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 44525 | -230 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52500 | 950 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -1170 | 825 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 6.45 | 0.25 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8965 | 50 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197.89 | | | 品种现货价:工业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 17, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1233.0, up 0.37%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed by the end of 2025. After the impact of administrative production cuts at the beginning of the month subsided, most mines resumed production, resulting in an increase in supply, a rebound in some coal prices, and a rise in the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for three consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K line is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - On September 17, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1734.5, up 0.46%. The spot market of coke faced a second - round price cut. China aims to rectify the chaotic low - price competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. In terms of fundamentals, the pig iron output in this period was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. After the impact of production control by steel mills for the parade faded, the pig iron output returned to the previous level, and the coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K line is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1233.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1734.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan. The JM futures contract持仓量 was 976933.00 hands, down 3980.00 hands; the J futures contract持仓量 was 53118.00 hands, down 237.00 hands. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 120696.00 hands, down 5552.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 4607.00 hands, up 448.00 hands. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 80.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 129.00 yuan/ton, down 9.50 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 600.00 pieces, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 1550.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 991.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 37.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was - 14.50 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.80 tons, up 1.20 tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 304.40 tons, up 23.80 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.02%. The monthly raw coal output was 39049.70 tons, up 951.00 tons. The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4273.70 tons, up 712.70 tons. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 185.60 tons, up 15.60 tons. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 466.35 tons, up 1.58 tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 258.31 tons, down 2.45 tons. The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 883.54 tons, down 36.51 tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 67.84 tons, up 1.33 tons [2]. National Industrial Situation - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills was 793.73 tons, down 2.03 tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 633.29 tons, up 9.58 tons. The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.81 days, down 0.28 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.29 days, down 0.42 days. The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 tons, up 53.11 tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 tons, down 89.00 tons. The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 tons, up 25.00 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.92%, up 2.78%. The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 35.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan. The monthly output of coke was 4259.70 tons, up 74.20 tons. The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.20%, up 4.43%. The monthly output of crude steel was 7736.86 tons, down 228.96 tons [2]. Industry News - The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Energy Bureau ordered 15 coal mines to suspend production due to exceeding the approved production capacity by more than 10% in the first half of 2025. The US Treasury Secretary said that the Fed has been slow to respond, and the market is digesting the expectation of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut from now to the end of the year. The US media reported that the US asked its allies to impose significant additional tariffs on China and India for importing Russian oil, but Japan refused. Trump hinted at making trade concessions during his visit to the UK. The UK government announced that US technology companies such as Microsoft and OpenAI promised to invest more than $40 billion, and the UK allegedly shelved the plan for zero - tariff on US steel [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market has been in a continuous bottom - oscillating state under the influence of policy signals such as anti - involution and bond fund redemption fee reform. The market is sensitive to negative news, with weak overall repair momentum. Short - term pricing deviates from fundamentals, and sentiment becomes the main driving factor. However, in the context of a weak economic recovery, the possibility of a trend - like decline in the bond market is low, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to observe the adjustment rhythm of bond futures in the short term, and participate in band operations after the market stabilizes. Also, pay attention to the term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.155, up 0.13%, with a volume decrease of 37,130; TF主力收盘价105.890, up 0.1%, with a volume decrease of 19,122; TS主力收盘价102.456, up 0.04%, with a volume decrease of 5,182; TL主力收盘价115.880, up 0.31%, with a volume decrease of 45,335 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.34, down 0.00; T12 - TL12价差 - 7.72, down 0.24; T2512 - 2603价差0.30, down 0.02; TF12 - T12价差 - 2.27, down 0.06; TF2512 - 2603价差0.13, up 0.02; TS12 - T12价差 - 5.70, down 0.11; TS2512 - 2603价差0.08, up 0.02; TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.43, down 0.05 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量222,606, up 6,322; T前20名多头205,866, up 4,344; T前20名空头211,048, up 6,985; T前20名净空仓5,182, up 2,641; TF主力持仓量129,236, up 2,852; TF前20名多头120,780, up 959; TF前20名空头129,172, up 2,512; TF前20名净空仓8,392, up 1,553; TS主力持仓量72,319, up 668; TS前20名多头59,637, up 283; TS前20名空头63,600, up 703; TS前20名净空仓3,963, up 420; TL主力持仓量144,877, down 2,494; TL前20名多头127,595, up 418; TL前20名空头140,517, down 143; TL前20名净空仓12,922, down 561 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 220017.IB(6y) 106.4281, up 0.2640; 220019.IB(6y) 99.0955, up 0.2651; 230006.IB(4y) 105.3971, up 0.0709; 240020.IB(4y) 100.8844, up 0.2400; 250012.IB(1.7y) 99.9982, up 0.0274; 220016.IB(2y) 101.9859, up 0.0092; 210005.IB(17y) 130.988, up 0.4593; 210014.IB(18y) 127.3256, up 0.3444 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield 1.3975%, unchanged; 3y yield 1.4175%, down 0.50bp; 5y yield 1.5825%, down 2.75bp; 7y yield 1.7000%, down 3.00bp; 10y yield 1.7800%, down 2.00bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜1.5163%, up 5.63bp; Shibor隔夜1.4830%, up 4.60bp; 银质押7天1.5481%, up 4.81bp; Shibor7天1.5190%, up 4.40bp; 银质押14天1.6300%, up 11.00bp; Shibor14天1.6070%, up 10.10bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR 3.00%, unchanged; 5y LPR 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模418.5 billion yuan, 利率1.4% for 7 - day, 到期规模304 billion yuan, additional 114.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1,481.98 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. Among them, the stamp duty was 284.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.4%, and the securities trading stamp duty was 118.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 81.7%. - On September 17, relevant departments have introduced over 30 policies around establishing a service consumption "1 + N" policy system, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce a series of characteristic documents. - On September 17, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will focus on three aspects to promote the quality improvement and capacity expansion of service supply [2]. 3.10 Key Events to Watch - At 2:00 on September 18, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and economic forecast summary; at 17:00 on September 18, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes [3].