1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate, with a supply slightly converging and demand showing resilience. Traders are advised to trade with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - The Shanghai copper main contract showed a slightly stronger weekly oscillation, with a weekly increase of +5.95% and an amplitude of 6.79%. As of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 98,720 yuan/ton [6] - Internationally, the US economy expanded at a 4.3% rate in the third quarter, the fastest in two years, but the US consumer confidence index declined for five consecutive months. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, including copper smelting [6] - In terms of fundamentals, the spot TC processing index of copper concentrates decreased slightly, and the expectation of tight supply persisted, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to national policies and tight raw material supply, copper smelting capacity may gradually converge, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply will slow down. On the demand side, the strong copper price has curbed downstream purchases to some extent, and downstream buyers mostly replenish inventory on a need - to - buy basis. At the application end, the year - end sprint of the power, infrastructure, and new energy industries provides some resilience for copper consumption [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Shanghai copper contract strengthened this week, and the spot was at a discount. As of December 26, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week. The main contract price was 98,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,540 yuan/ton from last week, and the trading volume was 252,097 lots, an increase of 14,445 lots from last week [10] - The spot price increased this week. As of December 26, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 97,740 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4,270 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [18] - The Shanghai copper bill of lading premium increased this week, and short positions dominated. As of the latest data, the average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF was 53 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 37,446 lots, a decrease of 12,216 lots from last week [24] 3.3 Option Market - The short - term IV of at - the - money Shanghai copper options may converge. As of December 26, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was below the 90th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.6635, a decrease of 0.0843 from last week [29] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The price of upstream copper ore increased, and the processing fee for blister copper rose. As of the latest data, the price of copper concentrates in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,430 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 1,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [32] - The import volume of copper ore increased month - on - month, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, an increase of 74,700 tons from October, a growth rate of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. As of the latest data, the spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 7,200.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,165.29 yuan/ton [36] - Global copper ore production and port inventory increased. As of October 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,938 thousand tons, an increase of 37 thousand tons from September, a growth rate of 1.95%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from September. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 680,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons [38] 3.5 Industry Situation - On the supply side, the domestic production of refined copper rebounded, and global production increased. As of November 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from October, a growth rate of 2.66% and a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. As of October 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,386 thousand tons, an increase of 21 thousand tons from September, a growth rate of 0.89%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 78.4%, a decrease of 2.1% from September [43] - The import of refined copper decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a decrease of 18,404.29 tons from October, a decline of 5.7% and a year - on - year decline of 23.47%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was - 3,124.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 513.25 yuan/ton [48][49] - Social inventory increased slightly [53] 3.6 Downstream and Application - In the downstream, the monthly production of copper products increased, and the import decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from October, a growth rate of 11.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 18.87% [61] - In the application end, the completed investment in power grids increased year - on - year, and the production of mainstream household appliances rebounded. As of November 2025, the cumulative completed investment in power and grid projects increased by - 1.8% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.5%, - 23.4%, 5.6%, 3.6%, and - 5% year - on - year respectively [65] - The completed investment in real estate decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative production of integrated circuits increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. As of November 2025, the cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43.184 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [71] 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of October 2025, the global refined copper supply was in surplus, with a monthly surplus of 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of October 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 1,400 tons [77][78]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约3.71%。 行情展望：据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，12月11日止当周，2025/26年度美国陆 地棉出口销售净增30.47万包，较前周增加99%，较前四周均值增加95%。2025/26 年度美国陆地棉出口装运量13.44万包，较前周增加32%，较前4周平均水平增加 17%。当周美国棉花出口签约量、装运量环比均增加。国内市场：供应端，虽然当 前产量较大，且全国棉花公检量已接近600万吨，但2026年国内外植棉面积有望下 调预期升温，加之籽棉收购成本固化也提供较强支撑。需求端，新疆纱厂订单充足， 高支纱相对紧缺，纺织开机率高于去年同期，企业按需补库。另外中美关税缓和利 好纺织品出口，11月棉纱进口同比大增，外销需求支撑较强，短期棉价延续反弹态 势。 未来交易提示： 业务咨询 添加客服 1、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate and adjust, with support at 22,900 yuan/ton and resistance at 23,400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.46% and an amplitude of 1.78%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 23,170 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for the next 18 months. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports have declined, and domestic smelters' production is expected to decrease significantly. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors weakening, while the automobile and other sectors have some policy - supported highlights. Domestic inventories continue to decline, while LME zinc inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 23,170 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton or 0.46% from December 19, 2025. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,086.5 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars/ton or 0.42% from December 18, 2025. The Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded [10]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 5,746 lots, an increase of 678 lots from December 19, 2025. The open interest was 200,417 lots, an increase of 6,815 lots or 3.52% from December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Price Spreads**: As of December 26, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025 [19]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 23,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 19, 2025. The spot premium was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 24, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 28.26 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.69 US dollars/ton from December 17, 2025 [25][26]. - **Inventories**: As of December 24, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 106,875 tons, an increase of 9,175 tons or 9.39% from December 17, 2025. As of December 19, 2025, SHFE refined zinc inventories were 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons or 5.66% from last week. As of December 25, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 111,400 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons or 6.15% from December 18, 2025 [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In October 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [35]. - **Supply - Side**: - **Global Supply Gap**: In October 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 108,400 tons or 9.76%. Consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,200 tons or 3.76%. The global refined zinc gap was 600 tons, compared to a gap of 64,800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS reported a global zinc market supply - demand balance of - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [40][41]. - **Production Forecast**: In November 2025, zinc production was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. However, production is expected to decline [44]. - **Export Window**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%. The export volume was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [47]. - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 942,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. The export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [50][51]. - **Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. The housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place of real - estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.1786 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [56][57]. - **Infrastructure**: In November 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [62][63]. - **Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [65]. - **Automobiles**: In November 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The automobile production volume was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar - crushing season started smoothly in the early stage, while Thailand's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased. With low inventories at the market terminal and among traders, the price increase stimulated restocking sentiment. As the market gradually enters the consumption peak season, trading volume has picked up. With the interaction between domestic and international markets, the sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The market focus has shifted to the sugarcane production in the Northern Hemisphere. As of December 24, 2025, in Thailand's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 11.5321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.54%; the sugar production was 1.0005 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.28%. In the domestic market, the industrial inventory is in a seasonal growth trend. As of now, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi and 35 sugar mills in Yunnan (5 more than the same period last year) have started crushing. Driven by the rising futures price, the spot price increased, and trading volume picked up. The sugar price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus Factors**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract increased this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.03%. As of December 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 157,649 lots, a decrease of 24,913 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.23 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.58 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 3.87%. This week, the net position of the top 20 in the sugar futures was - 68,227 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 5,038 [19][26]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: This week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 5 - 9 contracts was - 6 yuan per ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 155 yuan per ton [30]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 26, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,440 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,380 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,263 yuan per ton, a decrease of 122 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 58 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,123 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was - 4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 52 yuan per ton from last week [42]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [46]. - **Supply - Side - Industrial Inventory**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Supply - Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [51]. - **Demand - Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Demand - Side - Monthly Output of Refined Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In November 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [59]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: No specific data analysis provided. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: No specific data analysis provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be supported by stable supply growth and good demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position, bullish - biased strategy while controlling risks and paying attention to trading rhythm [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile and slightly upward trend on the weekly chart, with a price increase of +17.16% and an amplitude of 19.75%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 130,520 yuan/ton [7] - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, suggesting to give full play to the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the social comprehensive financing cost to remain at a low level [7] - **Fundamentals** - **Raw Materials**: Affected by the continuously strong price of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium ore has gradually increased. Driven by good profits, smelters still have a certain willingness to purchase and stockpile [7] - **Supply**: Lithium salt plants are actively producing, and with sufficient raw materials, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate has maintained a stable growth trend [7] - **Demand**: The purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers has become more cautious due to the high price of lithium carbonate. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand and long - term contracts. However, due to the strong demand in the downstream new energy vehicle and energy storage industries, the demand for lithium carbonate is good [7] - **Inventory**: Industrial inventory has been continuously depleted, and industry expectations are positive [7] - **Viewpoint**: Trade with a light - position, bullish - biased strategy and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The futures price of lithium carbonate has shown a volatile upward trend. As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 130,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19,120 yuan/ton [7][8] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased. As of December 26, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 111,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14,250 yuan/ton [17] - **Basis**: As of December 26, 2025, the basis of the main contract was - 18,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,870 yuan/ton [17] 3.3 Industrial Situation - **Upstream Market** - **Lithium Spodumene**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) has strengthened. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 1,410 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 US dollars/ton [21] - **Lithium Mica**: The price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) has increased. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 5,163 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 762 yuan/ton [26] - **Phospho - Lithium - Alumina Stone**: As of December 26, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - alumina stone was 13,525 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,725 yuan/ton [26] - **Supply Side** - **Imports and Exports**: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 1,825.51 tons from October, a decline of 7.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 513.33 tons from October, an increase of 208.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 249% [32] - **Production**: As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,980 tons, an increase of 2,450 tons from October, an increase of 4.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 55.29%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32] - **Downstream Demand** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: The quotation of hexafluorophosphate lithium has remained flat. As of December 26, 2025, the average price was 180,000 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 12,150 tons from October, an increase of 5.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [33][35] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The price of lithium iron phosphate has increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 45,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 268,890 tons, an increase of 2,010 tons from October, an increase of 0.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.43%. The monthly operating rate was 63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4% [36][38] - **Ternary Materials**: The price of ternary materials has increased, but the output has decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,520 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from October, a decline of 0.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.65%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [41][43] - **Lithium Manganate**: The price of lithium manganate has increased, but the monthly output has decreased. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,210 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from October, a decline of 0.87%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.67%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 45,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 yuan/ton [44][48] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The quotation of lithium cobaltate has increased, and the monthly output has also increased. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 369,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 16,050 tons, an increase of 260 tons from October, an increase of 1.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 111.74% [49][51] - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of November 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%; the sales volume was 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [52][53] - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of November 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [56][58] - **Options Market**: According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset was - 0.28, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [59][61]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with gains exceeding 2% for all except the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock - index futures also rose collectively, and small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks. Market trading activity significantly rebounded compared to last week. - Overseas, Trump's statement strengthened the market's expectation that the new Fed Chairman would cut interest rates. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, with deflation pressure remaining. The 12 - month LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. Although the weak economic indicators in November exerted pressure on A - shares, positive tones from political meetings provided bottom support [7][94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | 2.46 | 0.48 | 4638.4 | | | IH2603 | 1.50 | 0.51 | 3051.4 | | | IC2603 | 4.71 | 0.80 | 7388.0 | | | IM2603 | 4.63 | 0.57 | 7472.4 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 1.95 | 0.32 | 4657.24 | | | SSE 50 | 1.37 | 0.41 | 3045.40 | | | CSI 500 | 4.03 | 0.65 | 7458.84 | | | CSI 1000 | 3.76 | 0.35 | 7605.53 | [10] 3.2. News Overview - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged, which is neutral [13]. - Trump hoped the next Fed Chairman would cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well, which is neutral - to - bullish [13]. - The PBC's Q4 2025 monetary policy committee meeting proposed measures to maintain capital market stability, which is neutral - to - bullish [13]. - A large number of A - share listed companies completed private placements this year, which is neutral [13]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.53%, the STAR 50 Index rose 2.85%, the SME 100 Index rose 3.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.90% [16]. - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.43%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.27%, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.33%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.50% [17]. - **Industry Sectors**: Most industry sectors rose, with non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industries leading the gains. Most industry sectors saw net outflows of main funds, with significant net outflows in computer and national defense and military industries, and significant net inflows in power equipment [21][25]. - **SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was at a low level [29]. - **Restricted Share Unlock and Northbound Capital Transactions**: This week, major shareholders net - sold 1.1102 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share unlock market value was 192.473 billion yuan, and northbound capital traded a total of 529.777 billion yuan [32]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [40][43][46][49]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The A - share major indices rose collectively this week, and the four stock - index futures also rose. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, and market trading activity rebounded. - Overseas, Trump's statement strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, and the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged. Although the weak economic indicators in November pressured A - shares, positive policy tones provided bottom support. The expectation of a dovish Fed Chairman led to a weaker dollar and a stronger RMB, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Thursday saw slight fluctuations in the freight index (European line) futures prices, with the main contract EC2602 closing up 0.13% and far - month contracts showing varying performances from - 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1589.20, up 78.64 points from the previous week, a 5.2% week - on - week increase. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week, rising 46.46 points to 1552.92, a 3.08% increase. With shipping companies achieving full loads, it drove the futures prices up. China's manufacturing PMI in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand. - The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea has a better expectation of resuming navigation. The eurozone economy continues to show a warming trend, and Germany's service industry has a strong recovery. The overall eurozone economy is expected to maintain its relative strength since the third quarter. - The improvement of the trade war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are beneficial to the recovery of futures prices, while the short - term impact of the geopolitical situation on freight rates is weakened. The current freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - EC main contract closing price: 1799.70, up 2.4; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1164.5, up 3.5. - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 635.20, up 4.4; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 479.70, up 2.9. - EC contract basis: - 210.50, down 3.9. - EC main contract position: 34250 hands, down 66 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1589.20, up 78.64; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 962.10, up 37.74. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1552.92, up 46.46; container ship capacity: 1227.97 million TEUs, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1124.73, up 6.66; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1473.90, up 3.35. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1877.00, up 12.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1267.00, down 1.00. - Average charter price (Capesize ship): 22120.00, unchanged; average charter price (Panamax ship): down 4660.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, emphasizing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthening monetary policy regulation, and maintaining the stability of the capital market without mentioning the real estate market. - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the 20 - point details of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved. Zelensky said Ukraine will not give up its aspiration to join NATO [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - At 07:30 on December 26, Japan's November unemployment rate [1].

玉米系产业日报 2025-12-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -7 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 1 玉米淀粉月间价差(3-5):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 10708 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2189 -28 997444 | 吨) | 2484 -44 184451 | -10 0 -818 | | 期货市场 | -9873 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -114975 | | -27934 | 4850 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -313 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 51450 | 手) | 12355 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 334 | 2 | | | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):CBOT玉米 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and resilient demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly bullish range, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 96,210 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 12,133 dollars/ton, down 29.5 dollars [2] - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 247,747 lots, down 10,557 lots [2] - The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 41,742 lots, down 13,656 lots; LME copper inventory was 158,575 tons, up 825 tons [2] - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 95,805 tons, up 6,416 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 48,875 tons, down 2,875 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,222 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 95,005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 53 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the CU main contract was - 1,450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was 19.69 dollars/ton, up 6.53 dollars [2] - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.65 dollars/kiloton, down 0.57 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 85,240 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 85,940 yuan/metal ton, up 1,360 yuan [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The output of refined copper was 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 64,690 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 78,700 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan [2] 下游及应用 - The output of copper products was 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 48.2434 billion yuan, up 4.4627 billion yuan [2] - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 785.909 billion yuan, up 50.282 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.41%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 16.28%, down 0.22% [2] - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 26.37%, up 0.0597%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.11, down 0.1062 [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.9%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [2] - On December 24, 2025 (London local time), Jiangxi Copper made a formal offer to acquire all the issued and to - be - issued shares of SolGold plc, with a valuation of about 867 million pounds [2] - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall accumulation rate expanding. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing are increasing, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventory and have low replenishment willingness, resulting in lower - than - expected overall outbound shipments. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises arrange production flexibly this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate rebounds slightly month - on - month, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate declines month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The enterprise's overall shipment rhythm is slow, the finished product inventory rises, and under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises have production suspension and limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 182,848 lots, up 15,218 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50,850 lots, down 824 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 46,523 lots, down 9,002 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 14,466 lots, down 2,748 lots. The exchange warehouse receipt of Shanghai rubber is 93,230 tons, up 1,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipt of 20 - number rubber is 57,960 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,780 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,730 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 550 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,906 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 219 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheet is 58.22 Thai baht/kg, down 0.03 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber film is 55.39 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.74%, up 2.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, up 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.08%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.08%, up 0.52 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of December 21 - 27, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in southern Thailand, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 5.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,000 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 796,000 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 4.356 million tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]. 4. Suggested Focus - The operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]